AC/UNU Millennium Project
Updating the Global Challenges Facing Humanity
3. Population and resources
How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

This is the short description of the challenge as appears in the print version of the 2006 State of the Future report. The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the report.
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General Description

World population of 6.53 billion is growing at 1.14%. More than 4 billion people have been added since 1950. Population may increase by another 2.6 billion by 2050 before it begins to fall, according to the UN’s lower forecast, after which it could reach a new total of 5.5 billion by 2100. Global life expectancy has grown from 47 years in 1950 to 67 today, and UN median estimates are that people will live to age 75 on average by 2050. Nearly all the population growth over the next 50 years will occur in the urban areas of developing countries.

By 2050, if current trends continue, fertility rates will fall below replacement level for 75% of the world, the median age will increase from 26 today to 37, and there will be 2 billion people who are 60 or older—more than the number under 15. Retirement and health care systems and culture will have to change. New technology and medical breakthroughs are likely to change these forecasts over the next 50 years, giving people much longer and more productive lives than today.

The number of starving people has increased over the last decade. Although FAO’s near-term forecasts show increased grain production, the long-term trend for grain production per person is falling. Grain yields drop 10% for each 1°C increase in temperature during the growing season. Biodiversity that helps agricultural viability has dropped 75% since 1900. A quarter of all fish stocks are overharvested. FAO estimates that water for agriculture needs to increase 60% to feed an additional 2 billion people by 2030, even as urban water requirements are increasing. About 40% of agricultural land is moderately degraded and 9% is highly degraded, reducing global crop yield by as much as 13%. Growing energy and food demand versus lagging supply could dramatically increase prices and political instability.

UN Habitat estimates that 31.6% of the world’s urban population lives in slums, that 39 countries are facing food emergencies, and that 25% of children worldwide have protein-energy malnutrition. Without sufficient nutrition, shelter, water, and sanitation produced by more intelligent human-nature symbioses, increased migrations, conflicts, and disease seem inevitable. The number of chronically hungry people has begun to increase again, yet the number of refugees is falling rapidly. Urban population could double to 6 billion by 2050. Once thought to be a problem, urbanization is key to increasing human welfare due to its many amenities and economies of scale.

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Approaches to address this challenge

Challenge 3 will be addressed seriously when the annual growth in world population drops to fewer than 30 million, when average calories per capita per day exceed 2,000, when the number of hungry people diminishes by half, and when the infant mortality rate drops from the current 49 deaths per 1,000 live births to 25.

Business as usual is not meeting world needs for increased food, energy, and water supply. Creative financing models are needed to meet urban housing, water supply, sanitation, and other urban infrastructure needs today and for an urban population that will double within one generation. To reduce the economic burden on younger generations and to keep up living standards, people will work longer and will create Internet-based businesses, other forms of tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation. The factors reducing population growth still need to be reinforced. These include increased income, improved literacy, diminished infant mortality, empowerment and education of women, urbanization, contraceptives, and family planning.

Lowered materials costs and better automation can cut inputs in half and double outputs. Better ICT can more optimally match needs and resources worldwide in real time. Better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, plus genetic engineering for higher-yielding, drought-tolerant crop varieties, will be needed. Currently, agriculture uses 80% of arable land in developing countries, of which 20% is irrigated. Massive efforts are required to maintain fertile cropland. Demand for animal protein may increase 50% by 2020, triggering massive investments into genetically modified food, aquaculture, and stem cells for meat production without growing the animal.

Please suggest other actions to address this challenge or edits to the ones above:

Regional Considerations

Africa: Poor natural resources management and political leadership keep population and natural resources out of balance. Community-based natural resource management practices and security of land tenure are needed. Millions of AIDS orphans could grow up in crime groups, while much of the urban management class is being seriously reduced by AIDS. This pandemic has reduced life expectancy in Botswana from 67 in 1985 to 34 today, and it is expected to continue to fall to 31 by 2015 unless sexual practices change or medical breakthroughs occur. Nevertheless, Africa’s population is expected to grow from 13% of the world total in 2000 to 20% by 2050. Wars continue to prevent development investments, ruin fertile farmland, create refugees, and compound food emergencies across the continent.

Please suggest edits concerning Africa:

Asia and Oceania: Japan’s population shrunk last year and is expected to continue falling to about half of what it is today by 2080, forcing Japan to change its immigrant worker policies and add a robotic labor force. Some 37% of the world lives in either China or India, both with high economic growth rates that exceed their domestic food and energy supplies. India will be larger than China by 2050, according to the UN’s medium forecast. Asians earning more than $7,000 annually outnumber the total population of the United States, Canada, and Europe— laying the foundation for unprecedented consumption. New concepts of employment may be needed to prevent political instability among the 60% of Arabs who are now under 25 years old and face poor prospects for conventional employment.

Please suggest edits concerning Asia and Oceania:

Europe: Russia’s population is shrinking and by 2050 could fall by a third. Europe’s aging population, stagnant growth, a projected population loss of 70 million by 2050, and the dearth of young people will force changes in pension and social security systems, increases in immigrant labor, and hence changes for international relations, culture, and the social fabric, which could increase social conflicts. To increase birth rates, women’s professional careers need better guarantees and women need an equal sharing of family responsibilities.

Please suggest edits concerning Europe:

Latin America: The region it rapidly urbanizing and its population is expected to grow from 550 million today to about 800 million by 2050, challenging urban economies to both maintain current infrastructures and utilities as well as meet future needs. Migratory policies could be adopted as an equilibrium factor for spatial population distribution. Huge income gaps drive political unrest.

Please suggest edits concerning Latin America:

North America: The U.S. wastes half of its produce from farm to mouth. Biotech and nanotech are just beginning to have an impact on medicine, hence dramatic breakthroughs in longevity are inevitable in 25–50 years. New living areas on Earth, on oceans, and in space will eventually be developed. Nanotech efficiencies will use less input per function and make things last longer. Reducing “throw-away” consumption in favor of knowledge and experience could change the population-resource balance.

Please suggest edits concerning North America:

Graph: World Grain Production per Person
resources
Source: Earth Policy Institute Eco-Economy Indicators, with Millennium Project estimates

If you want to suggest a better graphic representation for this challenge, please indicate the source(s) of data:

Additional Comments
Please suggest any additional comments concerning this challenge:



Thank you for your participation. The results will be sent to you in the 2007 State of the Future in August 2007.



Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the ACUNU