AC/UNU Millennium Project
Updating the Global Challenges Facing Humanity
12. Transnational Crime
How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

This is the short description of the challenge as appears in the print version of the 2006 State of the Future report. The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the report.
Please add your suggestions in the space provided after each paragraph and feel free to contact us with any questions.

We look forward to including your views.

Although no attributions will be made, for demographic analysis and so that you can be listed properly as participant in the 2007 State of the Future, and so that a copy can be sent to you, please fill in the information below:

Name:
Title:
Organization:
My primary employment is in:
Government International Organization Corporation (Business) NGO University Independent Consultant Other

If other, please specify:
Address:
Country
Male Female

E-mail address:


General Description

Estimates of money laundering now range from 2% to 10% of global GDP ($1.2 trillion to $6.2 trillion), while all military budgets worldwide total $1.2 trillion. Increasingly, transnational organized crime is using cash couriers, diamonds, and other means besides banks to manage its transfers. Who knows how much money and barter value TOC makes in buying and selling government and corporate decisions? The World Bank estimates that over $1 trillion was paid in bribes last year; it is not clear how much of that is paid by TOC. Annual illegal drug trade accounts for $500–900 billion. Intellectual property loss in just the United States is estimated to be $200–250 billion. Human traffickers get $10 billion per year.

It is time for an international campaign by all sectors of society to develop a global consensus for action against TOC, which has grown to the point where it is increasingly interfering with the ability of governments to act. Nation-states can be understood as a series of decision points that are vulnerable to TOC’s vast amounts of money. Its power in one country can be leveraged to increase power in others. Some 137 countries have been identified as destinations for human trafficking. It is estimated that at least $16 billion (40%) of North Korea’s economy is transnational organized crime. The vast amount of money amassed by TOC allows its participants to buy the knowledge and technology to create new forms of crime to generate even more profits. Daily international transfers of $2 trillion via computer communications make a tempting target, as will production of synthetic psychotropes in the future. The 14 million AIDS orphans, with potentially another 10 million by 2010, constitute a gigantic pool of new talent for organized crime.

OECD’s Financial Action Task Force has made 40 recommendations to counter money laundering. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime has created the Global Program against Money Laundering. There is also the International Narcotics Control Board, World Customs Organization, International Group for Anti-Corruption Coordination, Interpol, and the International Criminal Court. In December 2005, officials from 38 Asian and European countries and regions endorsed a resolution aiming to jointly combat TOC. Nevertheless, TOC continues to grow and has not surfaced on the world agenda in the way that poverty, water, and sustainable development have.

In addition to national, bilateral, and international methods tailored to counter specific categories of crimes such as narcotics, illegal arms, human trafficking, gambling, commercial fraud, illegal chemicals and environmental crimes, counterfeiting, cyber crimes, bribery, kidnapping and extortion, products of endangered species, and money laundering, a global strategy is necessary to address TOC as a global system.

Please suggest edits to this paragraph:


Approaches to address this challenge

Challenge 12 will be addressed seriously when money laundering and crime income sources drop by 75% and when law enforcement organizations are effectively integrated in all countries. A global system to prioritize international cooperation—rank-ordered by the amount of money laundered rather than by category of crime or geographic location—could focus global resources on one TOC leader at a time. Such a prioritization system might be initiated through a special meeting of the IMF to upgrade software for bank transactions so that all banks would cooperate or be frozen out of the international system. Instant access would have to be available on every financial transaction requested by the prioritization system. Countries would have to give up some sovereignty, as the prioritization system would set the location for prosecution, preferably outside the accused’s country (extradition is accepted by the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime). Assets would be frozen at the time of arrest and transferred to the new system after conviction to financially support the next priority on the list. After initial government funding, the prioritization system should not depend on government contributions for continued operations or else it will be susceptible to bribery.

The UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime came into force in September 2003. It calls for a variety of modes for international cooperation to help fight organized crime. Possibly an addition to this convention or the ICC could create the protocol for assigning courts to try cases in countries other than the accused’s and could establish the prioritization system as a new body to complement the related organizations addressing various parts of TOC. In cooperation with these organizations, the new system would identify top criminals by the amount of money laundered, prepare legal cases, identify suspects’ assets that can be frozen, establish the current location of the suspect, assess the local authorities’ ability to make an arrest, and send the case for immediate action to a court from a list of volunteers. When everything is ready, all the orders would be executed at the same time to apprehend the criminal, freeze the assets and access, and open the court case, and then proceed to the next one on the priority list.

Please suggest other actions to address this challenge or edits to the ones above:

Regional Considerations

Africa: Links between African rebel factions, organized crime, and terrorism may be increasing, which is potentially exacerbated by millions of AIDS orphans with few legal means to make a living. The Somali and Nigerian coasts are now labeled as risky areas for pirate attacks. Corruption has permeated much of African society and is now perhaps the greatest limit to growth in many countries. Nigeria is attempting to break up computer fraud operations originating there.

Please suggest edits concerning Africa:

Asia and Oceania: Human slave trade and heroin provide huge sources of income for the region. The Collective Security Treaty Organization is working to stop it and was responsible for the seizure of more than 11 tons of Afghan drugs. Afghanistan’s opium acreage, which declined in 2005, is expected to rise in 2006.

Please suggest edits concerning Asia and Oceania:

Europe: EU ministers want to give Europol operational roles in investigations. European coalitions based on national politics cannot address global organized crime. According to the Prosecutor General of Russia, 500 large enterprises are controlled by organized crime and Russia’s now more porous border adds to the security problems caused by the EU’s integrated economic territory.

Please suggest edits concerning Europe:

Latin America: The region is the sole producer of cocaine, of which 75% that is bound for the United States passes through Guatemala. Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize have signed an agreement to counter illegal arms, drugs, and terrorism. Drug-related violence is rising sharply in Central America, and police corruption and some government participation in TOC remains a major problem in the area. Some anti-TOC progress has been made in Colombia, but it is still hampered by the guns-for-drugs relations in the rural area.

Please suggest edits concerning Latin America:

North America: Organized crime and its relationship to terrorism should be treated as a national security threat. Countries must be held accountable for corporations that are involved in criminal activities in their own and other countries. There is a new generation of criminals in the region who are anonymous in cyberspace. There is a need to increase use of radio frequency and other forms of identification tags to trace legal materials into illegal transactions.

Please suggest edits concerning North America:

If you have a suggestion for a graphic representation to measure change on this challenge, please indicate the source(s) of data:

Additional Comments
Please suggest any additional comments concerning this challenge:



Thank you for your participation. The results will be sent to you in the 2007 State of the Future in August 2007.



Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the ACUNU