AC/UNU Millennium Project
Global Challenges Facing Humanity


2. Water
How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

According to Loïc Fauchon, President of the World Water Council, in 2005 “lack of water or its poor quality…caused 10 times more deaths than all the wars waged on the planet together.”

Water supply has to be increased, not simply redistributed. Water tables are falling on every continent, 40% of humanity depends on international watersheds, agricultural land is becoming brackish, groundwater aquifers are being polluted, and urbanization is increasing water demands faster than many systems can supply. About 80% of all diseases in the developing world are water-related. Many are related to poor management of human excreta. Despite some recent improvements, 1.1 billion people still do not have access to safe drinking water and 2.6 billion people lack adequate sanitation, resulting in 1.7 million deaths per year from diarrhea and related diseases.

Many major rivers now run dry during part of the year before they reach the ocean. Water withdrawals from lakes and rivers have doubled in the last 40 years. UN agencies estimate that without major changes, by 2050 more than 2 billion people will live in water-scarce areas. Agriculture accounts for 70% of all human usage of fresh water, and it needs even more to feed the growing populations, while urban demands for water continue to grow and nature also needs sufficient water to be viable for all life support. More than 3,000 freshwater species are listed as threatened, endangered, or extinct. Future conflicts over trade-offs among agricultural, urban, and ecological uses of water are inevitable unless major political and technological changes occur. Previously, water-sharing agreements have occurred even among people in conflict and have led to cooperation in other areas.

Challenge 2 will be addressed seriously when the number of people without clean water and those suffering from water-borne diseases diminishes by half and when the percentage of water used in agriculture drops for five years in a row. WHO estimates that each $1 investment in increased water availability would yield an economic return of up to $34 and that the health-related costs avoided would reach $7.3 billion if global MDG water and sanitation targets are met. We need an integrated global water strategy, plan, and management system to focus knowledge, finances, and political will to address this challenge. It should apply the lessons learned from producing more food with less water via drip irrigation and precision agriculture, development of seawater agriculture on desert coastlines, rain-fed irrigation and watershed management, selective introduction of water pricing, new approaches to desalination like pressurization of seawater or its filtration via carbon nanotubes instead of more expensive reverse osmosis, and replication of successful community-scale projects around the world.

The plan should help convert degraded or abandoned farmlands to forest or grasslands; invest in massive desalinization, household sanitation, wastewater treatment, reforestation, water storage, and treatment of industrial effluents in multipurpose water schemes; and construct eco-friendly dams, pipelines, and aqueducts to move water from areas of abundance to scarcity. Water can also be conserved by using animal stem cells to produce meat tissue (without the need to create the animal) and by increasing vegetarianism around the world. Finally, use the UN’s 2005–15 Decade: Water for Life to get countries to commit to continually updating national and regional water plans.

Regional Considerations

Africa:
Africa has about one-third of the world’s major international water basins but uses less than 6% of its renewable water resources. Today, about 300 million people in Africa do not have access to safe water and about 313 million have no access to sanitation. Over the next 20–30 years, 25 African countries are expected to experience water scarcity and or water stress due to the combination of climate change, population growth, and increasing demand. About $20 billion a year is required to meet the 2025 Africa Water Vision. Since the majority of Africa depends on rain-fed agriculture, upgrading rain-fed systems and improving agricultural productivity will immediately improve the lives of millions of Africans.

Asia and Oceania: In the best-case scenario, the water situation in China is expected to get worse for the next 10 years before it begins to improve. Some 400 Chinese cities face water shortages today. Forced migration due to water shortages independent of the Three Gorges Dam has begun in China, and India should be next. China has only 8% of the world’s fresh water to meet the needs of 22% of the world’s population. India’s urban water demand is expected to double and industrial demand to triple by 2025. Prior to the December 2004 tsunami, 20% of Asia’s population lacked access to safe drinking water and 2 billion people lacked adequate sanitation. Urban sanitation coverage had reached 76%, and the figure in rural areas was 32%. The earthquake in October 2005 caused severe damage to health facilities and to water and sanitation systems in Pakistan and India and to a lesser extent in Afghanistan, increasing water-related diseases. In Bangladesh, 28–35 million people consume drinking water with elevated levels of arsenic.

Europe: The Belgian government recognizes water as a human right, and its development aid will focus on water. Although much of the current water distribution infrastructure needs to be replaced, water scarcity is not a problem in Western Europe except in the south. Water utilities in Germany pay farmers to switch to organic operations because it costs less than removing farm chemicals from water supplies. Land ownership is still not clear in many locations in the transitional economies, resulting in poor mining and timber management and affecting water quality, which was already polluted under previous administrations.

Latin America: Some 75 million people do not have access to safe drinking water and 116 million do not have access to sanitation. Megacities such as Mexico, Bogotá, São Paulo, and Buenos Aires will implode in 20 years if legal and financial actions are not implemented as planned. International and national treaties are beginning to have positive effects on water conflict trends in Mexico. Water purification is a problem in most urban systems. A private company charged a $450 hookup fee in Bolivia, where the average monthly salary is about $55, causing political turmoil. Policymakers should pay more attention to privatization’s best practices and to lessons from past failures. More reliable, transparent, and consistent measures for water availability, usage, and pollution are needed.

North America: EPA found that half of all streams in the U.S. are polluted. Each kilowatt-hour of electricity in the U.S. requires about 25 gallons of water for cooling, making power plants the second largest water consumer in the country, after agriculture. Instead of using fresh water for cooling, a new technology called diffusion-driven desalination is being developed to desalinate saltwater with heat. Although per capita water consumption has been lowered over 20 years, 16 million people face water rationing in the United States. Government agricultural water subsidies encourage waste. Water could become a class problem; poor people will be the first victims in free market distribution.

Graph: Access to Safe Water (15 most populated countries)

water
Source: WDI 2005, UNMDG, and Millennium Project estimate

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