Global Challenges-3

AC/UNU Millennium Project
- Global Challenges - 3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the 2004 State of the Future.

General Description Comments

Assuming no major breakthroughs in life extension research, the UN forecasts that by the end of this century global population could be 5.5 billion (nearly a billion fewer than today), while the medium forecast is for 9.1 billion people in 2100. By 2050, if current trends continue, the fertility rates will fall below replacement for 75% of the world, the median age will increase from 26 today to 37, life expectancy will increase from today's 65 to 75, and there will be 2 billion people who are 60 or older-more people than are under the age of 15. Retirement and health care systems and culture will have to change. No industrial country has a fertility rate at or above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Although current population growth rates continue to slow and the food and energy efficiencies will increase, the sheer rising numbers of people mean it will be difficult to meet demands over the next 50 years. World grain harvest has fallen short of requirements four years in a row. The current population of 6.4 billion is forecast to grow to 8.9 billion by 2050; 98% of this growth is expected in poorer countries. The North is suffering from aging, declining populations and retirement benefits, while the South is suffering from growing populations having very limited opportunities. Almost 40% of the world lives in either China or India, where industrial growth is accelerating the use of resources and impacts on the environment. Nearly half the world lives in cities on 2% of the land, consuming about 75% of the resources and producing about the same percent of the pollution. Natural resources to support all this growth are shrinking. In 1997, a team of researchers estimated that nature's current value to the global economy is about $33 trillion a year and that 40% of the economy of the developing world is directly based on biodiversity, which is being destroyed.

More than 1 billion people live in slums and squatter communities, 25 countries are facing food emergencies, and about one out of every three children under five (150 million) is malnourished. Today's 3 billion city dwellers will grow to 5 billion by 2030. Without sufficient nutrition, shelter, water, and sanitation produced by more intelligent human-nature symbioses, increased migrations, conflicts, and disease seem inevitable. Once thought a problem, urbanization now seems part of the solution to poverty, ignorance, disease, and malnutrition.

Approaches to address this challenge Comments

To reduce the economic burden on the younger generations and keep up living standards, people will work longer and explore Internet-based businesses, other forms of tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation, as will retirement communities. The factors that reduced population growth in the developing world still need to be reinforced. These include increased income, improved literacy, diminished infant mortality, empowerment and education of women, urbanization, improved and inexpensive contraceptives, and family planning.
Lowered materials costs and better automation can cut inputs in half and double outputs; better ICT can more optimally match needs and resources worldwide in real time. FAO estimates that food production has to increase 60% over the next 20 years, irrigated land will have to increase by 22%, and water withdrawals by 14%. Better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, plus genetic engineering for higher-yielding, drought-tolerant crop varieties, will be needed. Currently, agriculture uses 80% of arable land in developing countries, of which 20% is irrigated. Without serious changes, 20% of developing countries will face water shortages within a generation, forcing mass migrations. The world demand for animal protein will accelerate as the middle class increases, triggering massive investments into genetically modified food, aquaculture, and stem cells for meat production.

Water and energy strategies for the growing population are discussed in Challenges 2 and 13.

Regional Perspectives Comments

Africa: Millions of AIDS orphans could grow up in crime groups and join armed conflicts over natural resources, while much of the urban management class is being seriously reduced by AIDS. This pandemic has reduced life expectancy in Botswana from 67 in 1985 to 39 today; unless sexual practices change or medical breakthroughs occur, this will further decrease to 31 by 2015. Nevertheless, Africa's population is expected to grow from 13% of the world total in 2000 to 20% by 2050. In general, Africa is not managing its natural resources and has few plans to do so. Community-based natural resource management practices and security of land tenure are necessary to bring population and resources into balance.

Asia and Oceania: New technologies and people's ideas about procreation will change demographic forecasts. Asians earning more than $7,000 annually outnumber the total population of the United States, Canada, and Europe-laying the foundation for unprecedented consumption. With one-fifth of the world's total population, China has only 7% of the world's arable land. Mountains or deserts cover two-thirds of China, making
the balance of the land available to 1.3 billion people. Under the UN medium scenario, India will be larger than China by 2050; 25% of Japan will be over 60 years old by 2015; and by 2080 Japan's population will be half of what it is today, forcing it to change its immigrant worker policies. Nearly 60% of all Arabs are under 25 years old and have poor prospects for employment.

Europe: Over 75% of the population increase in EU in 2003 came from cross-border migration. Increased immigrant labor to offset the aging and shrinking population will change European international relations, culture, and social fabric, which could lead to increasing social conflict.

Latin America: Migratory policies should be adopted as an equilibrium factor for population distribution. Rapid urbanization is a major problem that is fed both by migration from rural areas and by high fertility among new arrivals in urban settings. There is a certain Malthusian cynicism about the solution to population and resource problems. The huge income gap drives political unrest, and 350-400 million people are hungry in the region.

North America: The increasing Hispanic population in the United States could change American politics, culture, society, and trans-Atlantic relations in the long run. Biotech and nanotech are just beginning to make an impact on medicine; hence dramatic breakthroughs in longevity are inevitable in 25-50 years. New living areas on Earth, on oceans, and in space will be developed. Nanotech efficiencies will use less input per function and make things last longer. Reducing "throw-away" consumption in favor of knowledge and experience could change the population-resource balance. Smart growth and a focus on intellectual rather than material resources may offset changing demographics.

Additional Comments:

General Description	Comments
Assuming no major breakthroughs in life extension research, the UN forecasts that by the end of this century global population could be 5.5 billion (nearly a billion fewer than today), while the medium forecast is for 9.1 billion people in 2100. By 2050, if current trends continue, the fertility rates will fall below replacement for 75% of the world, the median age will increase from 26 today to 37, life expectancy will increase from today's 65 to 75, and there will be 2 billion people who are 60 or older-more people than are under the age of 15. Retirement and health care systems and culture will have to change. No industrial country has a fertility rate at or above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Although current population growth rates continue to slow and the food and energy efficiencies will increase, the sheer rising numbers of people mean it will be difficult to meet demands over the next 50 years. World grain harvest has fallen short of requirements four years in a row. The current population of 6.4 billion is forecast to grow to 8.9 billion by 2050; 98% of this growth is expected in poorer countries. The North is suffering from aging, declining populations and retirement benefits, while the South is suffering from growing populations having very limited opportunities. Almost 40% of the world lives in either China or India, where industrial growth is accelerating the use of resources and impacts on the environment. Nearly half the world lives in cities on 2% of the land, consuming about 75% of the resources and producing about the same percent of the pollution. Natural resources to support all this growth are shrinking. In 1997, a team of researchers estimated that nature's current value to the global economy is about $33 trillion a year and that 40% of the economy of the developing world is directly based on biodiversity, which is being destroyed. More than 1 billion people live in slums and squatter communities, 25 countries are facing food emergencies, and about one out of every three children under five (150 million) is malnourished. Today's 3 billion city dwellers will grow to 5 billion by 2030. Without sufficient nutrition, shelter, water, and sanitation produced by more intelligent human-nature symbioses, increased migrations, conflicts, and disease seem inevitable. Once thought a problem, urbanization now seems part of the solution to poverty, ignorance, disease, and malnutrition.
Approaches to address this challenge	Comments
To reduce the economic burden on the younger generations and keep up living standards, people will work longer and explore Internet-based businesses, other forms of tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation, as will retirement communities. The factors that reduced population growth in the developing world still need to be reinforced. These include increased income, improved literacy, diminished infant mortality, empowerment and education of women, urbanization, improved and inexpensive contraceptives, and family planning. Lowered materials costs and better automation can cut inputs in half and double outputs; better ICT can more optimally match needs and resources worldwide in real time. FAO estimates that food production has to increase 60% over the next 20 years, irrigated land will have to increase by 22%, and water withdrawals by 14%. Better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, plus genetic engineering for higher-yielding, drought-tolerant crop varieties, will be needed. Currently, agriculture uses 80% of arable land in developing countries, of which 20% is irrigated. Without serious changes, 20% of developing countries will face water shortages within a generation, forcing mass migrations. The world demand for animal protein will accelerate as the middle class increases, triggering massive investments into genetically modified food, aquaculture, and stem cells for meat production. Water and energy strategies for the growing population are discussed in Challenges 2 and 13.
Regional Perspectives	Comments
Africa: Millions of AIDS orphans could grow up in crime groups and join armed conflicts over natural resources, while much of the urban management class is being seriously reduced by AIDS. This pandemic has reduced life expectancy in Botswana from 67 in 1985 to 39 today; unless sexual practices change or medical breakthroughs occur, this will further decrease to 31 by 2015. Nevertheless, Africa's population is expected to grow from 13% of the world total in 2000 to 20% by 2050. In general, Africa is not managing its natural resources and has few plans to do so. Community-based natural resource management practices and security of land tenure are necessary to bring population and resources into balance.
Asia and Oceania: New technologies and people's ideas about procreation will change demographic forecasts. Asians earning more than $7,000 annually outnumber the total population of the United States, Canada, and Europe-laying the foundation for unprecedented consumption. With one-fifth of the world's total population, China has only 7% of the world's arable land. Mountains or deserts cover two-thirds of China, making the balance of the land available to 1.3 billion people. Under the UN medium scenario, India will be larger than China by 2050; 25% of Japan will be over 60 years old by 2015; and by 2080 Japan's population will be half of what it is today, forcing it to change its immigrant worker policies. Nearly 60% of all Arabs are under 25 years old and have poor prospects for employment.
Europe: Over 75% of the population increase in EU in 2003 came from cross-border migration. Increased immigrant labor to offset the aging and shrinking population will change European international relations, culture, and social fabric, which could lead to increasing social conflict.
Latin America: Migratory policies should be adopted as an equilibrium factor for population distribution. Rapid urbanization is a major problem that is fed both by migration from rural areas and by high fertility among new arrivals in urban settings. There is a certain Malthusian cynicism about the solution to population and resource problems. The huge income gap drives political unrest, and 350-400 million people are hungry in the region.
North America: The increasing Hispanic population in the United States could change American politics, culture, society, and trans-Atlantic relations in the long run. Biotech and nanotech are just beginning to make an impact on medicine; hence dramatic breakthroughs in longevity are inevitable in 25-50 years. New living areas on Earth, on oceans, and in space will be developed. Nanotech efficiencies will use less input per function and make things last longer. Reducing "throw-away" consumption in favor of knowledge and experience could change the population-resource balance. Smart growth and a focus on intellectual rather than material resources may offset changing demographics.