Report presented at the July 2005 Planning Committee Meeting

Global Technological Change; From Hard Technology to Soft Technology, book by Zhouying JIN, Co-Chair of the Chinese Node

The Future 500. China 2005 Conference “The Responsibility of Enterprise to a Harmonious Society” October 18 – 19, Bejing, China

Dr. Rusong Wang, Co-Chair of the Cinese node, presented the report of the Node at the July 2005 Planning Committee Meeting. Please click here to download the presentation (large PDF file, hence it might take long to download).

Dr. Wang presented the main activities of China until July 2005:
• Chinese version of “2004 State of the Future”
• Participation in the ordinary works of SOF 2005 (questionnaires, interviews)
• China’s SOFI evaluation
• Four China’s Future Scenarios:
-- China’s Crisis Scenario
-- China’s Car and House induced industry Scenario
-- China’s Population Scenario
-- China’s Urbanization Scenario
• Training course on future studies methodology for graduate students
• Consultation to government in dealing with the Challenges

Dr Wang's presentation focused than mainly on the urbanization problems of China and its implications, China's future highlighting population, energy, and resources issues. His main conclusion on China's Future is: China has biggest opportunities as well as biggest risks in its social, economic and environmental development since the recent 300 years, and will become a super lion or undergoing a nightmare. China’s future is both optimistic and pessimistic! The main pressing issues are:
• Energy will be the most pressing issue in next two decades resulting in its economic stagnancy if its economic growth and energy use is still keeping fast growth according to current fossil energy way. The three prosperous industries in China: car and related industry, real estate and related construction industry, infrastructure and related industries accelerated the extraordinary energy consumption.
• Water will be the second largest limiting factor including water resources, water environment, water security, water landscape and water ecology. Even all institutional, available technological and behavioral measures are taken, China’s water crisis will continue 10-15 years.

He than presented alternative scenarios for China:
• Paradise: China becomes a super lion in the world within 30-50 years
- If China can successful expand its bottle neck of energy and water through technological breakthrough;
- If China can successful realize its economic transition from world resource and market relied to 80% of its resource and market is self reliant;
- If China can successful realize its institutional reform and value change based on ecological principles of integration and adaptation.

• Nightmare: China becomes next Middle East?
(1). If US still holds the world view of cold war in the second half of 20th century and trooped in the country according to the model of Iraqi War fused by the local conflict between Mainland and Taiwan; but the lessons from Second World War, the Korean and Vietnam war, and Iraqi war have shown that the military resolution can not work effectively.
(2). If China is continuously suffered from more than three years fatal natural disasters (flooding, drought, pests outbreak etc.), and more than half of its food demand has
to rely on outside, and its own capacity is far away from stop the epidemic disease, and therefore a mass emigration happened;
(3). If bankrupt is commonly happened in many enterprises due to severe resource shortage, environmental degradation, and world market saturation after 10 years
exponential growth, and the social injustice and rich-poor gaps in China are continually widening.

The Strategies emerging from China’s future study are:
– Circular economy: self reliance and ecological recycling
– Harmonious society: Cultural restoration and institutional reform
– Ecological health: China’s Millennium ecosystem assessment

Zhouying JIN, Co-Chair of the Chinese Node has recently published the English version of her book Global Technological Change; From Hard Technology to Soft Technology. See information about the book SoftTechnology.pdf. The book is available on Amazon.com (Global Technological Change: From Hard Technology To Soft Technology (Paperback), by Zhouying Jin, List Price: $39.95 U.S. dollars plus shipping)

The Future 500. China 2005 Conference “The Responsibility of Enterprise to a Harmonious Society” October 18 – 19, Bejing, China

The conference was organized by Future 500 organization,
coordinated by Dr. ZhouYing Jin, Director of Future 500 China, and Co-Chair of the Millennium Project China Node.
See Conference program http://future500.org/custom/34/

Photo: Zhouying JIN presiding the Conference
(click on the image for a larger version)

Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Fellow and Millennium Project co-founder was keynote speaker at the Conference.
Please click here to downlod his presentation

Photo: Ted and Annie Gordon meeting Chinese officials at the Conference
(click on the image for a larger version)