National Education Association: Future of Higher Education Scenarios-MacCollege, Inc
National Education Association: Future of Higher Education Scenarios-Outsourced Tech
The Future of Sex; You've Lost That Loving Feeling. Author: Hazel Marshall
National Education Association: Future of Higher Education Scenarios-Wired University
The Religion of the Future, Excerpted from Religion in the New Age. Author: Swami Kriyananda
The Age of Spiritual Machine. Author: Ray Kurzweil
The Future of Law Libraries. American Association of Law Libraries, Futures Committee
Sarasota 2025: A Strategic Conversation about the Future. Authors: Michele Bowman & Patrick Heggy
Facing The Alzheimer's Tidal Wave: Two Scenarios for 2020. Author: Daniel Kuhn
Regenerative Medicine Is the Future. Author: Peter Schwartz
The Four Vision 2010 Scenarios. University of Michigan
Future of Islam – The Turmoil Within. Author: James Piscatori, Foreign Affairs
The World Health Report 2001 – Mental Health: New Understanding, New Hope. World Health Organization
Scenarios of the Future of Biotechnology – 2010, 2020, & 2040
The Workplace in 2050 – Office Fantasies of the Future
A Scenario of Choice in the 21st Century and New Economy
Visions of the Family in the 21st Century
Strategic scenarios: Planning for possible futures
Scenarios of the Future Demand New Thinking
Using Scenario Analysis to Determine Managed Care Strategy Healthcare Financial Management
Health and HealthCare 2010: The Forecast, The Challenge
Healthcare 2020: Technology in the New Millennium
Forum: Future Scenarios in Health Promotion
The Great Cities of the Future
Transit Officials Predict Future Chicago Commuting Scenario
Three Scenarios for Kentucky’s Future
The Future of Medicine – 21st Century Miracle Medicine
Literacy Will Survive: An Alternative Scenario
Future of Retail – Anderson Scenarios. Jennifer Negley, Discount Store News, May 5, 1997.
Aging in the Next Few Decades. Denver Post On-line: Lifestyles health/mind/body July, 1998.
A Day in the Life.
Wired Staff Scenarios: Special WIRED Edition. December, 1995.
A scenario of a day in the life - Monday, October 19, 2020.
MacCollege, Inc. In MacCollege, the NEA describes a possible future
for community colleges. It is a future in which government support has
decreased and the colleges are trying to manage their situation.
In some respects the community colleges are doing well in this future.
Most have outreach centers in the community, large numbers of part-time
and temporary faculty, and distance education programs that are successful.
But administration’s strategy for dealing with the loss of government funding
–to more aggressively and widely recruit for distance education students
– has not succeeded and an alternative must be found.
Local community college presidents decide to allocate regional franchises
in the MacCollege system. Some colleges resist this move and continue to
offer on-campus programs. But eventually funding dries up and they too,
join the franchise system.
In a move toward creating greater efficiency, MacCollege Inc. closes
its freestanding campuses and instead leases space in local malls. “The
mall centers are staffed by salespeople who sell a specific body of content
knowledge, available over MacCollege's computer system, and educational
enhancements, such as do-it-yourself fetal pig dissection kits.” MacCollege
develops and uses an “educational debit card,” debiting for hours of online
education. And accredited coursework includes "Mall-walking" and "The Sociology
of Video-Arcades."
“In 2011 MacCollege stock is issued as an IPO and snapped up
immediately by public sector pension plans.”
The
Future of Religion and the Future of New Religions. Author: Massimo
Introvigne, June 2001. Center for Studies on New Religion
http://www.cesnur.org/2001/mi_june03.htm
(Note on author: Massimo Introvigne is managing director of CESNUR (Center for Studies on New Religions) in Turin, Italy. He is an author and lecturer on the history and sociology of religious movements).
On June 15-17, 2001, at theAxel and Margaret Axson Johnson Foundation’s
annual Engelberg Seminar in Avesta/Engelsberg (Sweden) on "The Future of
Religion", author and lecturer Massimo Introvigne presented his visions
on the future of religion and new religions.
Mr. Introvigne envisions 2010 to be a time when membership in conservative
religious groups, including conservative charismatic Catholics, Pentecostal
Protestants, independent fundamentalist churches, Hindu nationalists, Islamic
fundamentalists, Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, and others, may grow at a surprising
rate. But he also envisions (continued) growth in religions adapted to
“post-modern liberalism,” such as the Buddhist movement Soka Gakk.
By roughly 2020, in Mr. Introvigne’s scenario, small liberal groups
may splinter from the Roman Catholic Church over issues such as abortion,
gay rights, and feminism. At this time, Mr. Introvigne sees a “Darwinian
struggle for life among new religious movements” underway and belives a
movement, unheard of today, will gain prominence. Although liberal groups,
such as the mainline Protestant churches in Europe, will likely (continue
to) decline by 2020, the new groups will not statistically be able to challenge
the largest existing religions.
In 20 years from now, Mr. Introvigne believes, “some "old" new religions,
such as the Mormons or the Jehovah’s Witnesses, will probably grow enough
to be acknowledged as part of the mainline. Other "new" new religions will
emerge - while others will disappear - their total membership remaining
but a small percentage of the total general population. Pentecostalism,
charismatic Catholicism, and globalized Islam are much more likely to be
among the ultimate winners. Official and governmental hostility to religion,
including minority religions and "cults" will become a less significant
phenomenon. Religionists will be very happy to look back and be able to
confirm that rumors of the death of God were indeed grossly exaggerated.
As in the year 2000, however, they will again be unable to control the
global orientation of world culture and society, because competition arising
from more secular factors and forces will remain as strong as ever.”
National
Education Association: Future of Higher Education Scenarios-Outsourced
Tech
From Website http://www.nea.org/he/future/market.html.
A Scenario of “Outsourced Tech” ("http://www.nea.org/he/future/outsrc.jpg").
In this scenario, the NEA describes a higher educational model that is
based on the business practice of outsourcing. The model is designed by
business leaders who, acting as advisors to Outsourced Tech, completely
privatize the institution. As a privatized educational facility, dining
halls, residence halls, buildings, grounds, bookstore operations, accounting
operations are all outsourced and employees are fired and rehired as hourly,
part-time workers. The library becomes an on-line cataloguing and ordering
system that is subcontracted to Amazon.com. Work-study students replaced
the librarians.
Tenure is slowly eliminated for the faculty and most eventually take
a buy out package. Private companies now handle all instruction. Businesses
that have, over the years, been developing their own in-house educational
programs for employees, now contract their employees out to higher educational
institutions to provide education and training. As a final outsourcing
step, the business leaders serving as Outsourced Tech’s advisors, oust
the board of trustees and turn decision-making responsibilities over to
an advanced version of IBM's Big Blue.
The
Future of Sex; You've Lost That Loving Feeling. Author: Hazel Marshall
http://www.hackwriters.com/futuresex.htm
In this vision of the future, author Hazel Marshall describes a time
in which sex is no longer associated with human connection and touch, or
childbearing; rather, sex is associated with robots, test tubes, and created
mates, and is completely divorced from reproduction. Although Marshall
does not see this future coming to fruition, she does admit to its possibility.
In this essay, Marshall envisions sex in the future to be possible
with robots that are specifically made and programmed for that purpose.
One can create the perfect robotic partner from a variety of human shapes,
skin coverings, and hair and eye colors. The children of the future, brought
up by robotic nannies and having never been touched or hugged by humans,
will be very receptive to robotic sex. Robotic sex slaves will emerge,
replacing human prostitution and helping to solve population problems.
Marshall imagines that by 2030 sex will be almost completely divorced from reproduction. Increases in reproduction choices through advances in technologies such as egg harvesting and sperm preservation, will result in an increased use of test tube fertilization. Only the old fashioned or poor will conceive physically and with unknown results. A “GenerationRich” will design their test tube children and a new social class will emerge. These technological advances in reproduction choice will also lead to different family and household structures and society will see an increased number of single parent families.
National
Education Association: Future of Higher Education Scenarios-Wired University
Website http://www.nea.org/he/future/market.html
The Scenario of a Wired University: In this scenario, set in 2011, the
University has gone virtual. It no longer occupies a physical presence
in the community; once academic buildings have been converted to prisons
and university sports facilities have been leased to other teams.
The Wired U, as the University is called here, is seeking to
dramatically expand its presence in the distance education market. To differentiate
itself from all the other on-line universities, the Wired U emphasizes
its use of real faculty in the development and implementation of its courses.
Most faculty now work behind the scenes, developing the materials offered
by the on-line educators. These on-line educators – faculty who are photogenic
and good in front of cameras – are scorned as “blow dries” by the serious
behind the scenes academics. But this is the video age: on-line educators
are “stars,” complete by agents and membership in the Screen Actors Guild.
And because it is the video age, distinctions between scholarly disciplines
change to conform better to the medium. Instead of course groupings such
as English lit, biology and nursing, courses are grouped in Hollywood defined
genres such as historical, drama, or situation comedy.
The
Religion of the Future, Excerpted from Religion in the New Age. Author:
Swami Kriyananda
http://www.ananda.it/en/kriyananda/articles/sk_religion.html
(Note on author: Swami Kriyananda (J. Donald Walters) became a disciple of Paramhansa Yogananda in 1948 and lived with him during the last years of his guru’s life. He is one of the few remaining direct disciples of Yogananda, and the only one now living and teaching in Europe. He is internationally known as an author and composer, having written over seventy books and hundreds of inspiring musical compositions).
In this writing, Swami Kriyananda sets forth a vision of the religion of the future, in which there is reconciliation between the old dogmatic assumptions and new scientific discoveries. This reconciliation will create increasing demands that “religion meet science with methods of its own for testing and experience.”
The Swami describes a shift “toward simplicity, toward emphasizing the needs of the inner man over the demands of church and state.” He also envisions a shift in approach from quantitative to a qualitative; and a shift in focus from outwardly to inwardly. “The religion of the future will be a religion of Self-realization” and the result he envisions, will make yoga a “science of religion.”
The Age of Spiritual Machine. Author: Ray Kurzweil
In his most recent book, Ray Kurzweil puts forth a vision of the 21st century in which machines have not only achieved but exceeded the level of human intelligence. “Before the end of the next century, humans will no longer be the most intelligent or capable type of entity on the planet,” according to Kurzweil, and this state “will have profound implications on all aspects of human endeavor, including the nature of work, human learning, government, warfare, the arts and our concept of ourselves.”
Kurzweil lays out, in significant detail, the drivers pushing the development of intelligent and spiritual machines: the accelerating/exponential pace of technology development; the increasing speed of machine computation; increasing memory capabilities; and brain engineering.
Kurzweil also lays out scenarios for the next 100 years:
“2009: A $1,000 PC can perform a trillion calculations per second; computers are imbedded in clothing and jewelry; most routine business transactions take place between human and virtual personalities. Accelerating returns from the advancement of computer technology have resulted in continued economic expansion. The neo-Luddite movement is growing.
“2019: A $1,000 computing device is equal to approximately the computational ability of a human brain; computers are largely invisible and embedded everywhere; most interaction with computing is through gestures and two way natural language spoken communication; realistic all-encompassing visual, auditory and tactile environments enable people to do virtually anything with anybody, regardless of physical proximity; people are beginning to have relationships with automated personalities as companions, teachers, caretakers and lovers.
“2020: computers achieve the memory capacity and computing speed of the human brain.
“2029: A $1,000 unit of computation has the computing capacity of 1000 human brains. Direct neural pathways have been perfected for high bandwidth connection to the human brain; a range of neural implants is becoming available to enhance visual and auditory perception and interpretation, memory and reasoning. Automated agents are now learning on their own and significant knowledge is being created by machines with little or no human intervention. The majority of communication is between a human and machine. There is growing discussion about the legal rights of computers and what constitutes being human. Machines claim to be conscious and these claims are largely accepted.
“2049: Nanobot swarm projections are used to create visual-auditory-tactile projections of people and objects in real reality.
“2099: Human brain reverse engineering appears to be complete. The concept of what is human is significantly altered. There is a strong trend toward a merger of human thinking with the world of machine intelligence; there is no longer any clear distinction between humans and computers. Most conscious entities do not have a permanent physical presence. Machine based intelligences derived from extended models of human intelligence claim to be human. The number of software based humans vastly exceeds those still using neuron cell based computation. There is ubiquitous use of neural implant technology that provides enormous augmentation of human perceptual and cognitive abilities. Humans who do not utilize such implants are unable to meaningfully participate in dialogues with those who do. Life expectancy is no longer a viable term in relation to intelligent beings.”
The
Future of Law Libraries. American Association of Law Libraries, Futures
Committee, 5/14/2002.
http://www.aallnet.org/committee/scenario10.asp
The American Association of Law Libraries Futures Committee has developed three visions related to the future of law libraries.
Vision 1 describes a collaborative model for the future of library operations. In this vision, law libraries actively work to design and implement new models, products, portals, information systems, standards and regulations in collaboration with campus libraries, legal publishers, the ABA and AALS. They also work with the bar and other library organizations to influence information policy. Law librarians assume a leadership role in developing instructional tools and programs.
The second vision describes a scenario in which the physical library no longer exists, but rather operates electronically. In this scenario, librarians conduct research entirely on-line and are located individually among the appropriate attorney/client and practice group. Librarians take an active role in evaluating and selecting systems and working with vendors to develop appropriate training.
In the last scenario, the library is operated as a business. Management is outsourced to a private company and attention is focused on return on investment. Outsourcing provides the clients/attorneys with an opportunity to reduce their overall costs associated with library tasks and research activities. Because the library is operated by a professional management company that offers a variety of growth opportunities for librarians, high quality personnel are available to service the customers.
Personal Transportation for the
Future: Solutions for the 21st Century. Author: Andrew Abulu
www.hackwriters.com/Futureabulu.htm
In this imaginative and entertaining scenario, fiction writer Andrew Abulu describes a solution to transportation problems of the 21st century, delivered via a speech from Bill Gates to the European Union. Dubbed the Personalized Online Patroller – Connectible Orbital Navigator (POP-CON), Mr. Gates describes “a fully automatic air taxi that interconnects with any of several giant airships for long distance travel. Remotely accessed, this user-friendly transport system is universally controlled by a super computer server.” Fueled by hydrogen from Iceland, the POP-CON is equipped with Vertical Take-Off and Landing capabilities, allowing passengers to be picked up from virtually from any location. In addition to providing “clean” transportation, the POP-CON is envisaged to aid in several global issues, such as balancing out the global supply and demand of labor by allowing migrant workers in all countries to travel safely and efficiently between all parts of the world and breaking down regional trade barriers.
The Environment in Geopolitical Relations.
RAND Corporation, www.hf.caltech.edu/hf/scenarios/envgeo/envgeo.html
Authors: Ike Chang and Lloyd Dixon
In this scenario set in 2050, “a new paradigm of geopolitical relations emerges in which the environment acts as the basis of political, economic and military relations between rich and poor countries emerges in the 21st century. National leaders of rich countries couch their foreign policies in terms of environmental protection.” Polluting countries are labeled environmental terrorists, prompting the use of power to enforce environmental regulations on a worldwide basis. “The rise of the UN EPA begins with the proliferation of international treaties, summits and other agreements among world leaders. Elaborate monitoring and enforcement protocols are adopted...with violating countries incurring punitive tariffs and threats of military action. The UN emerges as a supernational agency with jurisdictional powers above and beyond those of secular governments characterized by the 19th and 20th centuries. Economically, the greatest benefactors of the new regime are the middle-tier countries of South America, East Asia and Eastern Europe, which by 2150 achieve a level of economic prosperity and environmental sustainability comparable to that in North America and Western Europe.”
The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States. National Intelligence Council, January 2000. Author: Dr. David F. Gordon, National Intelligence Officer for Economic and Global Issues.
This estimate prepared by the National Intelligence Council explores three alternative scenarios for the course of the infectious disease threat over the next 20 years. The scenarios are based on the interplay of three variables: “the relationship between increasing microbial resistance and scientific efforts to develop new antibiotics and vaccines; the trajectory of developing and transitional economies; and the degree of success of global systems of surveillance and response.”
Scenario 1) Steady Progress: This identified “least likely” scenario projects steady progress whereby “the aging of global populations and declining fertility rates, socioeconomic advances and improvements in health care and medical breakthroughs hasten movement toward a “health transition” in which noninfectious diseases such as heart disease and cancer replace infectious diseases as the overarching global health challenge.”
Scenario 2) Progress Stymied: This more pessimistic scenario projects “little or no progress in countering infectious diseases over the next 20 years. Under this scenario, HIV/AIDS reaches catastrophic proportions as the virus spreads throughout the vast populations of India China, the former Soviet Union and Latin America, while multidrug treatments encounter microbial resistance and remain prohibitively expensive for developing countries.” The estimate judges that although this scenario is plausible, it is “unlikely to prevail because it underestimates the prospects for socioeconomic development, international collaboration and medical and health care advances to constrain the spread of at least some widespread infectious diseases.”
Scenario 3) Deterioration, Then Limited Improvement: According to the authors, the “most likely” scenario is one “in which the infectious disease threat worsens during the first half of the [20 year] timeframe, but decreases fitfully after that, owing to better prevention and control efforts, new drugs and vaccines and socioeconomic improvements.” Essentially, this scenario suggests that progress against the infectious disease threat is likely to be slow and uneven, with advances tempered by renewed setbacks, such as the withdrawal of promising vaccines due to side effects.
Sarasota 2025: A Strategic Conversation about the Future. Global Foresight Associates, October, 2002. Authors: Michele Bowman & Patrick Heggy.
The following scenarios were created as a result of a one and a half day meeting held in October 2002 to explore the futures of Sarasota County, Florida. Taken together, they describe three alternative images of Sarasota as a community in the year 2025. The scenarios are based upon the interplay of three critical uncertainties: the supply and use of water; the gap between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ in the community; and the role and use Sarasota’s environmental resources.
Scenario 1) A Tale of Two Sarasotas: In this scenario, the gap between the ‘have’ and ‘have-nots’ in the Sarasota has widened, creating a two-tiered society with intense competition for basic resources. However, even for its most privileged citizens, money can’t buy everything; the shortage of water resources affects the quality of life for everyone in the community. An excerpt: “Although Sarasota’s citizens had grown accustomed to the increased rationing over the years, the latest proposal by the County Hydrologist – the most powerful political position in the county – was causing yet another controversy. Many feared that the two-shower per week policy would only exacerbate the rash of water crimes that have plagued Sarasota since 2017.”
Scenario 2) Red Ink Sunset: This scenario explores
how Sarasota’s water resources become a valuable commodity, and ultimately
a possible antidote, for the county’s poor fiscal health. An excerpt:
“The Board meeting opened quietly and without fanfare. No one really wanted
to be there. It was an atmosphere of weariness and defeat. Having just
last month finalized the sale of the county water system to Global Hydro,
the Board members were without purpose or inspiration. Certainly it had
been traumatic for the entire political structure of the county to lose
the revenues and pride that were embodied in the water system. But
there had been no choice. Like many previous “retirement” communities,
Metro County’s economy is almost completely consumed by the health care
and genomics industries. Few tourist
s come to Sarasota these days. There is little left to attract
them – parks have fallen into disrepair, and many beaches have been closed
for years. The County simply doesn’t have the resources – or the will –
to maintain beaches and bays in the wake of the spiraling health care crisis.”
Scenario 3) Paradise Closed: Sarasota’s commitment to
sustainability and water quality has created a pristine and healthy physical
environment. In 2025 Sarasota is a paradise – for those who can still
afford to live in the newly gated community. An excerpt: “In 2025,
Sarasota County more closely resembles a national park than a city. It’s
been rated as one of the Top Ten Beaches for several years running.
With pristine water and glittering sand, tourists are happy to pay the
$20 per person user fee. The County’s substantial commitment to preserving
the environment over the last decade has paid off – conservation land is
not only the County’s largest asset, it is also a valuable commodity, providing
the infrastructure f
or a healthy eco-tourism industry.”
Facing The Alzheimer's Tidal Wave: Two Scenarios for 2020. Author: Daniel Kuhn, Ageing Today, February 2002. (Daniel Kuhn is education director at the Mather Institute on Aging, Evanston, Ill., and is author of “Alzheimer's Early Stages: First Steps in Caring and Treatment”.)
By the year 2020, the first boomers will turn age 75. In the next two decades, the number of Americans with Alzheimer's disease will swell from about 5 million now to over 8 million, nearly 3.5 million of them age 85 or older. “As the Alzheimer's tidal wave approaches, treatment and care for those diagnosed with the disease is likely to differ from that of today. However, despite advances in understanding the pathophysiology of Alzheimer's, few experts believe that a “magic bullet” will be found in the near to mid-term future.” This illness is unlikely to be prevented or cured. Mr. Kuhn then illustrates two public policy scenarios for handling this crisis to the year 2020. These scenarios are important because they don’t involve any medical breakthroughs, or, what Kuhn calls, “ a magic bullet”.
Scenario One: Continue on an Incremental Path. “Looking back from 2020, the incremental process from the early part of the 21st Century continues to consider care giving primarily as a private responsibility of individuals and families supported half-heartedly by government agencies and voluntary organizations. In this scenario, public and private resources fill some gaps and demonstration programs would point the way to inevitable changes--especially to linkage of family caregivers and professionals through computer technology, case management, cash or vouchers to purchase services or supplies most appropriate to each family's needs, and support programs for those affected by Alzheimer's. Furthermore, state and federal assistance is given in the form of payments and tax relief aimed at encouraging homecare and avoiding more costly care in facilities covered by Medicaid. Subsidies enable a greater number of people to afford private LTC insurance and reduce burdens on the public sector. Additional public funds become available for respite services and other home and community-based programs. An increasing number of state governments would take steps to create "dementia-friendly" programs. For example, Florida and a few other states in the early part of the 21st Century support memory-disorder centers staffed with dedicated professionals who understand the disease and provide up-to-date information, support and counseling. Such resource centers proliferate in 2020. Other states would make home and community-based care a top priority, following the lead of Oregon and Washington. Also, states experiment with reforms in financing nursing homes and assisted living facilities that would make such institutions better places to live. All of these important steps help many more people than are being served in the early 21st Century. The vast majority of people, however, would be left to fend for themselves and would have to rely on their income and savings to pay for care. Increased funding would make services available to many more people trying to keep loved ones with Alzheimer's at home. Overall, the incremental approach by 2020 would not come close to keeping pace with the needs of people with Alzheimer's disease and of their families.”
Scenario Two: Moving Beyond. “This scenario moves beyond the early 21st Century state of denial about the magnitude of Alzheimer's and would involve sweeping changes. In this scenario, the human dimension of the illness finally comes into sharp focus, and care giving is seen as a collective national effort. Family caregivers are recognized as the backbone of LTC and benefit from a variety of informal and formal supports. Old ways of providing care are seen as ineffective, and the case for revolutionary changes in healthcare and social services begin to take hold. The line between health and human services eventually blurs, and the integration of Medicaid and Medicare becomes a major priority. Along this path, federal agencies state governments and voluntary organizations adopt new ways of addressing the myriad needs of those affected by chronic illness. Health promotion and fitness of the body, mind and spirit become entrenched in American culture by 2020. Dollars spent on institutional care dramatically shift to home and community-based programs, and LTC facilities convert to social models of care that emphasize lifelong vitality. Nurse's aides and other frontline workers finally receive recognition for their hard work and achieve decent wages and benefits. A flexible system emerges that allows for meeting a growing diversity of needs.
In 2020, early diagnosis of Alzheimer's becomes commonplace, not just for the sake of medical treatment but to provide those affected by the disease with opportunities for information, support and services aimed at helping them cope at every stage of the condition. Caring for people with the illness and supporting their families would become mainstream roles among helping professionals. Local governments, businesses, schools, and civic and religious organizations become sensitive to people in need of this assistance through a massive public education effort.”
Regenerative Medicine Is the Future. Author: Peter Schwartz, Red Herring Magazine, October 2001.
In this promising article, Peter Schwartz illustrates with quite moving words, the vision of a tomorrow when the code of body repair is finally unlocked. In the same way that the human body “knows” to self-repair a small cut, humanity will someday harness the self-healing power of the body through the advancement of science---The Human Genome Project and the continuing understanding of self-assembling biological systems. Mr. Schwartz dramatically illustrates it in this way: “Today, we often return from the hospital with a bit less of ourselves, as pieces are snipped away. Tomorrow, we will come home with regrown livers and reconnected spinal cords. We will grow new brain tissue to repair the damage of a stroke.” Of course, there are many uncertainties before we get to this vision. We are only in the early stages of research, and, there are numerous moral and ethical issues to be sorted-through.
Scenario One: The Scientific Uncertainty. “We are still in the early stages of research; useful results could come soon--or might take decades. It is even possible that little practical information will result from the research, which may yield scientifically important but therapeutically insignificant information. Another possibility is that a few key ailments--say, Parkinson's disease or diabetes--may find cures down this avenue. While this outcome would be wonderful for those who suffer from these diseases, it would not be a revolution in medicine. However, if the success of early research is any indication, regenerative medicine may indeed be the wave of the future.”
Scenario Two: The Intellectual PropertyUncertainty. “Another key uncertainty, of course, is where the research will take place and who will control the intellectual property. Religious-based opposition in the United States to embryonic stem cell research may cause much of this medical domain to develop abroad. President George W. Bush's proposal to limit research to existing stem cell lines profoundly constrains what can be done. Many researchers are already leaving the United States to pursue this study elsewhere. Several scenarios are possible. First, regenerative medicine may prove to be an illusion. Just because nature can regenerate new tissue doesn't necessarily mean we can turn that capability on and off. Second, regenerative medicine may create niche cures, but more general success may be delayed for decades.”
Scenario Three: A Final Scenario. “And the final scenario might see the surgeon's knife used only for traumas and emergencies. We could see a world in which regenerative medicine transforms the human condition, a world of ever longer youthful life, and one in which humans suffer from fewer and fewer diseases. Of course, we in the United States might have to go elsewhere for treatment.”
The Future of Ideas. Authors: Ina Hilgers, Yoshinori Kishimoto, Daniël Malan, Gino Rhuggenaath, Olivier Simonnot, and Dirk van Sluis, Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Graduate School of Business.
“The Future of Ideas” poses a set of unique scenarios that take place in the year 2020. Critical uncertainties explore key questions about the nature of knowledge & ideas and idea ownership. The more significant questions that unfold in these stories include the extent to which ideas will be freely shared in the future and, if so, how will they be protected? If ideas lean toward the proprietary side of the spectrum of uncertainty, then a key question global thinkers would ask would be, Will the ideas be fire walled or barricaded from contributing to potential breakthroughs that could lead to innovation? Could “ownership” of ideas help or hinder the resolution of critical world problems, particularly environmental problems? What about power balance? If ideas are owned, will ownership enable more power to corporations? To the individual? To networks? Will ideas control or be controlled? One interesting question: could the future become a world in which every nations becomes an island of identity, composed of millions of “individual islands” of distinct identities and ideas?
Scenario One: Power to the Corporations. “In 2020, national boundaries will be almost a distant memory. There will still be cultural (e.g. linguistic) ways of differentiating, but the superpowers will consist of a few big multinationals that determine the international political and economic agenda. Companies will have a very strong cult-like culture, where work-life and personal life of an employee will merge to become one. All the employee's and their families` needs, from education, health-care, pensions to leisure-time entertainment, will be provided by the corporation. People will assume loyalty and an identity related to the company that they or their family work for, instead of to a country or political party (e.g. "I work for Shell and I am also Dutch", and not the other way round). Ideas in this environment will be generated by the "citizens" of a corporation with the underlying motivation to advance their corporation and it’s power. This power will mainly result out of the corporation’s fast transformation of an idea or the combination of ideas into useful and/or profitable applications. The corporation will not legally own the ideas of their employees, but they will be the first to receive it and act upon it and thus have the advantage of the "first move", i.e. the possible quickest transformation of an idea into a "sellable" or useful application. The power of consulting firms will be negligible and these firms will probably be disappearing altogether because ideas will generated within the borders of companies and will be freely implemented or shared by those with corporate partners if beneficial to the corporation. We would return to a form of imperialism where instead of countries, corporation will be seek and conquer "mines of free human intellect” by identifying and locking-in creative people into their corporation and it’s culture.”
Scenario Two: Graphomania. “A high-tech return to the classical Athenian marketplace: ideas will be generated for their own sake, and (appreciated and) freely used and "grown" by others and valued/appreciated based on its intellectual quality. Applications of ideas will result out of virtual teams combining to grow or combine ideas and put them into form. Ideas will be turned into applications for everybody’s use and the sake of society’s advancement. Resources needed for this transformation of an idea into an application will be generated through large private funds, resulting out of private, altruistic donations. Corporations will still exist, but only to fulfill the most basic human requirements for survival: real fulfillment will result from intellectual exchanges and growth in a stress-free environment, replacing the currently perceived need for luxuries. An anarchy based on creative chaos will replace today’s existing law & order society. The new respected leaders will be those who contribute most to the advancement of this society, either by intellectual merit (value-added to society) of their ideas and / or by actively supporting valuable ideas into useful applications for society’s use.”
Scenario Three: “Power to the Consultants”. “In 2020, the world will be ruled by the organizations / brokers that hold the largest portfolio of "useful" ideas and/or idea generators, e.g. the Big Six consulting firms. In a world where ideas are crucial for survival, the generation and propagation of ideas will be critical to acquiring and maintaining positions of power. Ideas will be highly protected (i.e. developed and encrypted for exclusive use, and legally owned by the organizations - and not the individuals - that generated them). Their ownership will be guarded and defended. Political and economic power will be determined by domains of influence ("This is Andersen country !") - a new ideological battle will ensue. In a society where the biggest asset is knowledge and the knowledge is owned by organizations, idea generators will want to join the well of all the knowledge. They will want to work in these idea-brokerage organizations, because they get access to a big database of ideas that other people/companies have no access to and can live-out their creativity for the largest financial and personal reward. This attraction and retention of knowledge workers will reinforce the big monopolies' position. The consulting "countries" will prosper on their power of idea ownership. Due to the inherently static nature of this protective environment for ideas, there is low cross fertilization of ideas. Ideas will be generated and propagated somewhat slower than would be possible in a less protective environment.”
Scenario Four: “Power to Networks”. “In a full-blooded network economy the final frontier between producer and consumer disappears. Virtual identities in a virtual reality become the great equalizer - it is not important to know whether one is dealing with a powerful multinational or a bright spark with a powerful notebook sitting at home. Ideas are owned and propagated by their generators, but the network ensures a level playing field - ideas are valued on their quality, not by looking at their generator. The fact that ideas are owned will increase the life cycle of an idea. There is a longer time frame to generate cash flows from an idea. Networks will have to circumvent the current problems of creating trust within the networks and of maintaining equal efforts from each of the members in the networks. However anybody that has a good idea can start a new network. The network will be as good as the idea. The entrance barrier for a new network however is low. Individuals or individual groups, not necessarily companies start networks. There will be a fierce competition (more players, since the players are individual groups rather than companies) for the next idea. Nobody will control the network - there will be creative destruction: leapfrogging forward from one idea to the other (survival of the fittest idea). The fittest idea will provide a cash flow as long as it takes for the network society to come up with a better new idea. Knowledge workers will shift from network to network. They will follow the successful ideas. The fact that they move around with the ideas increases the necessary cross-fertilization chain reaction to generate more ideas. The idea economy will be as efficient (and virtual) as the current free-flow capital markets.”
The
Four Vision 2010 Scenarios. University of Michigan, 2002.
A wide group of scholars, futurists, scientists, alumni, professors,
and university personnel gathered under the auspices of the University
of Michigan to explore the impact of future digital technology, scholarly
communications, and the future of the university.
As a result of this study, two axes were created on a scenario matrix to represent the more significant sets of challenges and uncertainties that universities will undergo in the future. The “Competition” axis represents the spectrum of challenges to the university's traditional role in a world of competition. The “Digital Literacy” axis represents the degree to which information technology has transformed not only the essential skills required of the student, but the very nature of knowledge creation and dissemination within the university.
Scenario One: New York Times Sunday, June 20, 2010. Higher Education: It’s Not Just for College Students Anymore. “It is a magnificent autumn day in the mountains, but the Sawtooth Range is no longer enough to keep Robert Belletzkie here. After 26 years in academia, the last eight as chair of the psychology department at Boise State University, he is packing up. The books and paper records from his carpeted, mahoganies office fill three liquor cartons. His computer and the software he has collected, most of it multimedia CD-ROMs and Divides, require eight cartons. He is a voluble but fastidious man, one who still wears his hair above his ears, and this morning he waxes philosophical about this ratio of analogue to digital. "Three paper to eight electronic. As it ought to be. Unfortunately, in this world I'm leaving behind, that ratio is inverted." To emphasize his point he flips through the most recent catalogue from the Boise State Press. "The works in blue background boxes are digital. The works in white are paper." The effect of the blur of pages is that of the lightest shade of blue, much lighter than the stunningly bright sky outside the window behind Belletzkie. "Not much blue, is there?" he asks. "Eight to three. Just one of the reasons universities are unraveling." The unraveling Belletzkie speaks of has become maddeningly apparent in recent years throughout the nation's university system. It is the unraveling of what he sees as the three primary functional strands in the braid of the traditional university: 1) the preparation of the young for economic usefulness; 2) the fulfillment, especially since World War II, of society's research needs; and 3) the provision of values and ethics to the good citizen, a function that holds over from the university's origins in the medieval European church. This braid has become so frayed that in many cases it is only the final strand that any longer bears weight. The first strand, the university's role as creator of careerists, has been frayed for decades as most professions have become specialized beyond the reasonable reach of an institution whose very name speaks of breadth. In the past decade or more, though, outside competitors have been actively picking at this strand, unraveling it further by providing the specialized educations necessary for individual professions. And more and more students are signing up with these other providers. When adjusted for demographics, the enrollment at U.S. universities has been dropping 2-3% each year for the past five years. Why are these students going elsewhere? The reasons are largely financial. Skills training offered by corporations and other providers promise a more marketable alternative than the traditional college education. Also, the expense of a university education now proves prohibitive for many young families, especially given that student loans are more difficult to come by and cost more to pay off, and that a university degree does not guarantee a respectable income that will allow one to climb out from under the debt load. But financial reasons are not the only reasons. One truth unmentionable at faculty meetings is that these corporate training programs are doing a good job of professional certification. General Electric's Career Path program is indicative of the nature of many of these endeavors. Career Path assigns each student a multimedia notebook computer, the primary learning tool. The pedagogy itself, presented both on DigiDoc plug-ins and on GE's Digital Learning Network, involves learning while doing and is cutting edge. Indeed, most research into human cognition and education these days is done by corporations interested in more efficient training and more productive workers. The trainees of these corporations are the beneficiaries of that research. GE now graduates almost 2000 students each year with associates or bachelor's degrees in narrow fields of professional competency. GE itself hires on almost a third of these graduates. Hundreds of other companies line up for a chance at the remaining 1400…” (Please see the rest of this highly detailed scenario at the University of Michigan website.)
Scenario Two - A Particularly Open Letter to the Faculty from the Provost on the Occasion of the Closing of _____ University's Doors Forever. May 2010. “You are all aware of my deep regret, my personal sense of loss on this occasion. I've been with this institution for 22 years, and it's a small enough place that I know all of you personally. So enough of the official talk of declining enrollments and bad investments and infrastructure debt overload. I owe it to all of you to explain more particularly why we are closing our doors after a century and a half, and why this demise is taking place on my watch. Friends, we have failed. We have been followers in a world that demands we be first. With hindsight our missteps seem clearer and the signposts to the road to success are better illuminated. But only with hindsight. So with these remarkable optics of hindsight, I give you a litany of what we should have done:
Scenario Four: New Wine (Fewer) Old Bottles: “By the mid-90s, the promises of digital information technology seemed to know no bounds. Wall Street hurtled along on its wildest streak of bullishness since the 20s, fueled by the allure of technology stocks. Hardly a week went by without a new blockbuster merger of telecommunications giants. When Microsoft, hot on the heels of sweeping the market with its new online service, merged with Disney/ABC, even Ted Koppel couldn't help but joke that now Big Brother was surely "all ears." Although it was still more of a country road than a major thoroughfare, the information superhighway was transforming U.S. society. The ivied walls of higher education were not spared this assault. Mid-decade many factors came together to rise a collective clamoring within academe for a close examination of the university qua university. The onslaught of digital information technologies was certainly one such factor, but so were cuts in federal funding for research and for students, and the fear that universities were losing ground to institutions that catered to students who were in search of narrow skills training. The proximity of the new millennium also had something to do with this soul-searching; most every university issued some incarnation of the "Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century" brochure. The unspoken subtext in this self-reflection was the question of whether the university itself could survive in this brave new world. Though the results of these university discussions usually showed ambivalence about how fully to embrace these new learning technologies, many individual faculty members were already making good use of them. Interactive "edutainment" programs were becoming sophisticated enough to make their appearances in undergraduate classrooms. The University of Indiana began to make use of Broderbund's Composer Supposer CD-ROM in its introductory music theory classes. Faculty there had concluded that the program's melding of graphics and sound illustrated certain musical concepts more readily than either medium alone could have. Indiana's reputation in music encouraged other schools: as went Bloomington, so went the nation. Those who advocated full adoption of such learning technologies argued that not only were they efficient, engrossing, and self-paced, but they allowed each student to choose the learning style that was best for him. They even argued that such media created new modes of knowledge, knowledge that could not be fully represented in other ways. Such modes of knowledge, they said, represented nothing less than a new paradigm of literacy. Though these multimedia programs were becoming more and more popular on campuses, many voiced fears that they represented just one more force pushing the university away from its traditional--and etymological--breadth of focus into a narrow concern with job training. This chord of concern would be struck again and again in coming years. These fears of "InfoTech" were not baseless. By the end of the decade interactive multimedia programs had become the most widely used learning tool in training programs for business. Many were custom-designed to teach new employees the skills necessary to be productive at a particular job. The one program that was the single biggest target for academics' disdain was the program McDonald's put together for its recruits and touted in its TV commercials: it allowed new employees to practice their serving skills on virtual celebrities--Madonna buying a Coke without ice, Ben Franklin ordering eleven Big Macs. Computer simulation at its most inane, it represented to its critics the mindset that would forever limit digital learning technologies, a mindset, they argued, that despite its profitability had no place in the university. But the digital boom showed no signs of bust. In 1997 the Supreme Court ruled in Buchwald v. Broderbund that the use of short excerpts from copyrighted works in CD-ROMs did not constitute fair use and that copyright owners must be compensated. Rather than putting a damper on multimedia production, this ruling proved a boon for it, for intellectual property owners and creators now had their incomes legally protected. Protection under law didn't guarantee protection in practice, but several technologies combined in the late 90s to bring the real closer to the ideal. Secure "digital watermarks"--electronically imprinted bits of data that, like the watermark on currency, ensure authenticity--were developed and allowed producers to tag their digital information. Buyers of CD-ROMs began to pay for use of all the intellectual property on the disk, but--publishers keeping in mind that pennies add up when volume is in the millions--the cost was kept to a minimum. All of this digital compensation relied on online commercial transactions, which by 1998 were secure 99% of the time--slightly more often than face-to-face transactions. Even online multimedia documents could now be financially profitable for their creators. Adding to the multimedia blitz was a deluge of new digital information. Reelected from a field of formerly Republican competitors, President Bill Clinton in 1997 made good on a campaign promise to open the government's vast troves of information to online access at cost. Within three years all public domain material from the Library of Congress was available through any phone line, as were the public files of most government agencies. The Administration also encouraged competition for databases that had previously been monopolized by one or two suppliers. Westlaw and Lexis, for example, which had charged law firms tens of thousands of dollars for access to their legal databases, were forced to slash their prices to compete with such cut-rate packagers as LawLine. Galaxies of readily accessible information lured academics into multimedia by the thousands. One of the most successful was Hector Chavez, a professor of history at MIT. All the applications ever filed at the U.S. Patent Office had recently been put online. Chavez used this cheap information as the raw material for his immensely popular Invention Strategies course, a course that enrolled almost 20,000 would-be inventors from all over the world each fall. The arts and humanities, to the surprise of many, engaged in more than their share of these endeavors. George Mason University maintained a home page for the nation's poet laureate that included online poetry workshops and readings for high-school students. And the popularity of a multimedia program by Robert Pinsky that allowed the interactive study and creation of formal poetry, ProzCD, caught even its creator by surprise…” (Please see the rest of this highly detailed scenario at the University of Michigan website.)
What to do With Your Life - In the New Year, Times May Be Tumultuous Unless You Make a Virtue of Uncertainty. Author: Joel Garreau, Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, December 30, 2001; Page F01.
This rich article focuses on the individual, providing good advice on scenario planning techniques & tools that enable a person to “plan” for uncertainty. In the wake of the September 11th attacks, many people drew fogs of uncertainty in their minds. In fact, some took drastic action, such as self-sterilization and selling homesteads to wander the West, not quite knowing or planning for their lives, aside from wanting to get out from under the other shoe, were it to drop. Mr. Garreau writes about scenario planning for the individual person, beginning with the drawing of a compelling line of uncertainties in life. Garreau expresses that, oftentimes, we are hesitant to think about our own future, because “decision making usually leads to a fork in the road. A number of outcomes are possible.” This is uncomfortable. Scenario planning therefore, helps build a mental roadmap of alternative futures, so that planning can be more coherent and “comfortable”. This highly instructive article ends with a summary of global scenarios resulting from work among a group of scenarists and executives hosted by Global Business Network. This notable group had gathered in San Francisco to develop a “more rich, real-world, and timely set of futures”. This scenario-set provides a useful backdrop to one’s own personal life, work, and planning.
Scenario One: Walled World. "Walled World," is a volatile place. Government is weak, social turmoil on rolling boil, and selfish me-first instincts strong. The diabolical attacks of 2005 were the icing on the cake. After the terrorists set off the smallpox bombs in Harlem and Anacostia, they let the FBI find a third one in a storage locker in a white-supremacist community in Idaho. It looked like whites had declared war on blacks. The terrorists next exploded gasoline tanker trucks in enclaves of white privilege, from the playing fields of Exeter to the debutante balls of Atlanta, so it would look like blacks were retaliating. Then came the attacks on ethnic groups, from the St. Patrick's Day parade to the assault on the biggest Hispanic cathedral in Los Angeles. The more leaders try to jawbone the public into trusting each other, the more people suspect they are being led to the slaughter. America becomes a collection of protective enclaves. Precious commodities, from information to gold, are hoarded. Some local economies prosper, especially if they have natural resources, and the education to exploit them. But the only large institutions that prevail are those who can portray themselves as deeply rooted in each of these neighborhoods and tribes.”
Scenario Two: Cave World. “A world without trust in markets and especially without trust in any group that does not share a common faith and value system is "Cave World”. In "Cave World," the process of globalization quite suddenly reverses. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt slip into anarchy; suitcase nuclear weapons level Silicon Valley, Tokyo and Moscow; smallpox and other plague weapons make global overpopulation a concern of the past. Xenophobia becomes rampant. Where there are still borders, they are fiercely defended. Visas to the developed world, most particularly the United States, are almost impossible to come by. The values that replace faith in markets take many forms, and some are benign, for unlike in "Walled World," this is less a world coming apart than one in which people cling together, albeit in small homogeneous groups. The monasteries, neighborhood cooperatives and local folk tunes of Tacoma Park and Berkeley are quite beautiful. But other atavistic movements repress women, attack minorities, revert to the rule of warlords and deprive their people of technology. Think Alabamistan.”
Scenario Three: Reformation World. "Reformation World," is one in which all over the globe people are united in finding it hard to remember why, in 2001, people felt the most important things in life were those that could be measured in dollars. In 2010, the shock of the 2001 terrorist attacks seems quaint, compared with the new pace of change. In 2010, people just shrug at headlines that once would have seemed world changing, like the recent report that a 13-year-old, in her mother's fertility clinic, has cloned her dog. No one has figured out who caused the contamination of the Mississippi, Amazon and Rhine River valleys, although of course al Qaeda is suspected. Primarily, the world is reeling from weird weather. Imagine this: The vast amount of fresh water pouring off the melting ice caps has caused the Gulf Stream to shift in mid-decade. That has stopped the melting. Germany and Scotland are now permafrost. It also has started to create deserts in places that have been temperate. The result is migrations. Particularly startling are the educated, sophisticated people fleeing centers of the industrialized world from London to Los Angeles. Folk find themselves with a desperate need for some bedrock; some higher meaning amid these wild swings. Deeply "spiritual" people find it hard to believe bigger designer kitchens seemed important not so long ago. The fundamental things apply, as time goes by. The thing that matters now is character. Also loyalty, trustworthiness, integrity, courage and faith.”
Scenario Four: Market World. “In "Market World," supply and demand trump local values, driving globalization. In this 2010 world, oil is revealed to be thicker than blood. Just as the first acts of terrorism helped seal a new friendship between Russia and the United States, the rest of the world unites to diminish terrorist threats. A global consensus emerges: It is crucial to improve world living conditions to drain the swamp that once had bred terrorism. People prosper, and the global economy claws back. Debts to unstable countries are forgiven. Education initiatives -- especially among poor young women -- flourish. Eliminating disease, starting with AIDS in Africa, becomes a high priority. The message of the marketplace is: We're all in this together.”
Future of Islam – The Turmoil Within. Author: James Piscatori, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2002.
The author compares two highly academic and historical books: “What Went Wrong? Western Impact and Middle Eastern Response” by Bernard Lewis (New York: Oxford University Press 2001), and “Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam” by Gilles Kepel (Harvard University Press 2001). Lewis and Kepel present a historical overview of Islam, an academic view of the ‘lessons of the history’, and a futuristic outlook. (This annotation includes a normative scenario and a decline scenario.) Both views differ widely: Bernard Lewis, a historian, contends that the history of Islam was marred by victimization over the centuries; yet, he finds plausible reason for the survival of Islam in a modern, 21st century world. Gilles Kepel, on the other hand, considers Islam “a utopian project whose moment has passed,” arguing the plausible likelihood of Islam’s decline. Together, these books depict a passionate debate over the politics of the Muslim world. Both were written before the events of September 11th.
Bernard Lewis argues that the deep roots of the Middle East and Islamic history guarantees it’s potency and staying power in the future. He urges individual Muslims to ask themselves an essential question: What went wrong? He believes that Muslims are capable of learning the lessons of history, and applying them proactively within the context of the harsh realities of modernization. Lewis makes a strong case that one essential lesson of history, among others in the 20th century, was the “accusatory finger”. That is, Muslims blamed the West for economic problems, which led to an introversion among these cultures, that in turn, led these cultures to be the prey to “predatory authority”, such as narrow, clerical rule. According to Lewis, destiny is possible for Muslims if they believe that they can take destiny into their own hands. This doesn’t mean terrorism or radicalism (besides, terrorists couldn’t account for the lessons of history, even if they tried to). Rather, it means taking responsibility for cultural self-confidence. This is leadership. The preservation of Muslim cultures and Islamic belief is just as important as the preservation of the environment. Terrorists understand one thing: the so-called “straight path”. Among other things, the “straight path” dictates that everyone else in the world is an infidel, or, “allies of Satan”. Unfortunately, this perception is unrealistic.
Scenario One: A House in Order: In the future, Muslims co-exist with “unconquered infidels and a global unwillingness to come to terms with the long-term dangers of fusing religion and politics.” It is a world of Muslim reform, where Muslims formulate and re-formulate theories, ideas, and practices of pluralism and political participation that were original tenants of true Islam. The reformers are not “replacement leaders” of the clerics (the clerics are held with reverence), but unlike the clerics, the reformers provide Muslims with global leadership and savvy in matters of Internet, communications, global cultures, and the economy. In 2002, there were already a number of notable Muslims arguing that Islam and democracy were indeed – compatible – taking the debate away from those that consider democracy an “alien system,” where, obedience to the divine rather than popular sovereignty was complete. In 2005… “An increasing number of Muslims intellectuals in societies as diverse as Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Turkey, Indonesia, and Malaysia” speak-out about the intrinsic Islamic principles of pluralism, tolerance, and civic participation. The world begins to realize that these principles were never that far apart from the principles held in high esteem in civil society. Mutual implementation within Muslim societies and civil societies successfully maintain the integrity of Islam and the integrity of the principles of civil society. Internationally, and, within the United Nations, the Muslims illustrate passionate, innovative, and creatively new voices & views on pluralism and political participation. Muslims had historically advocated human rights, women, and other special interests, but in a different light. In this scenario, the Islamic realm of the Muslim world is in a continual “process of redefining itself”, while at the same time, Muslims contribute to higher global ethics and goals. In fact, the Muslim’s unique insight into global cultures “disrupts” some of the original planning & implementation goals of United Nation committees in 2005, because they continuously provide fertile thought for reconciliation and diplomacy in a world where there continue to be “rogue nations”. Muslims are a permanent and indigenous presence in the Western societies of Europe, North America, and Australia. They provide an invaluable service to humanity. (End of scenario 1).
Gilles Kepel, a political sociologist, argues the end of Islam. The “Islamist movement has largely passed.” To Kepel, the future is already here. In his thesis, the emerging lessons of history strongly reveal that clerical rule could not possibly withstand, stand against, or, influence today’s civil societies. Kepel describes the confluence of Islam and civil society within the context of modernization, class & ethnic differentiation, and global mass media & education. These “driving forces” have a tendency to isolate Islamic tradition. It follows, then, according to Kepel, traditional Islam could not possibly survive isolation from the rest of the world. If Islam doesn’t survive, then the result will be an evolution into a spectrum of new identities. (What is striking about Kepel’s theory is it’s similarity to Darwin’s “Origin of the Species”; but instead of a mass extinction of species, Kepel discusses a mass extinction of culture.)
Scenario Two: Whither Jihad? A Decline. In this world, social and political changes have contributed to the fragmentation of religious authority, the meaning of scripture, and the fragmentation of religious clerics. The contributing factors in 2002 were a decline in the public confidence of the Catholic Church, due to the hierarchical mishandling of abusive priests; and, the loss of respect for the views of Osama bin Laden, once considered a very respected cleric on a worldview level. This fragmentation in 2002 represented the first of many tectonic shifts that eventually led to the decline of Islam. Clerics are no longer taken seriously when preaching a clerical view of the book of the Old Testament, the New Testament, and the Koran. Throughout the world, individual Muslims decide to interpret the Koran on an individual level. By 2005, there is an increasing number of individualistic interpretations of the history of the Prophet Mohammed. These new perceptions begin to spread throughout the developing nations through the enabling technologies of the Internet and the ‘leapfrog’ technologies of global wireless communications. These technologies enable the delivery of the original Koranic scripture on digital application slates, similar to the hand-delivery of the original Ten Commandments on geological slates. Islamic jurisprudence and Koranic prescriptions are, by 2005, held in reverence as a tool for guidance – as had been for centuries - but the interpretation of the Koran in 2005 increasingly rests with the “eye of the beholder”. The administration of justice as an “eye for an eye” declines in favor of the dictate of an individual’s conscience within the context of the Koran’s guidance combined with the morals of an individual society. By 2005, it becomes increasingly difficult to draw the line between pure Islamic jurisprudence & prescription versus blended Islamic jurisprudence & prescription. Radicalization and terrorism become isolated incidences, no longer having just cause or association to any religious belief, or, the “hijacking of a religion”; but rather, terrorism is recognized as a medical disease: a form of insanity. Inspite of the efforts of the World Health Organization (WHO) to communicate an understanding of this disease, insanity continues to bear the “fruit of the vine” of stigma on a global perceptual basis. As the Muslim-Western world increasingly experience encounters with each other, attempts at “clerisocracy” (a term coined by the late political scientist P.J. Vatkiotis), remain only punctuated, isolated attempts. The critical uncertainty remaining in 2005 as futurists ponder the next five-year horizon to 2010, is the question about an Islamic trajectory of adaptation. Islam. Futurists will ask, “In 2010, will Islam become a whimpering revolution, where “radicals have come unstuck” but the moderates have not?” “Will the struggle for integrating democratic ideals with Muslim values define the modern experience? If so, will it be an inspiration? Will it depend upon the extent that “ideological rigidity” succeeds or fails?” “ The modern experience may increasingly become “democratic”, or, a “blended democracy”; or, a fuller-fleshed version of a democracy and Islam.” Or, perhaps, time will mark the death of Islam and innovate a newer, more evolutionary form of culture that is based upon the inspiration of the Koranic scripture. Time will tell. Sometimes, it is the greatest deliverer.
The World Health Report 2001 – Mental Health: New Understanding, New Hope. World Health Organization, Director-General, Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland.
The theme of this landmark World Health Organization (WHO) study is to show how science and sensibility are combining to break down real and perceived barriers to care and cure in mental health. Humanity increasingly understands that the nexus of the trends and driving forces of genetics, biological, social, and environmental factors are increasingly coming together to cause mental and brain illness. This WHO report provides a global overview of the mental and psychosocial illnesses that pervade societies globally. The WHO suggests, “About 450 million people today suffer from mental or neurological disorders from psychosocial problems such as those related to alcohol and drug abuse. Many of them suffer silently.” The report makes a startling statement: “Major depression is not the leading cause of disability globally and ranks fourth in the ten leading causes of the global burden of disease. If projections are correct, within the next 20 years, depression will have the dubious distinction of becoming the second cause of the global disease burden. Globally, 70 million people suffer from alcohol dependence. About 50 million have epilepsy; another 24 million have schizophrenia. A million people commit suicide every year. Between ten to 20 million people attempt it.” This report is a comprehensive review of what we know about the current and future burden of all these disorders and their principal contributing factors.
In the last chapter of this very comprehensive report, “The Way Forward – Providing Effective Solutions” the World Health Organization makes ten overall recommendations for action (highly detailed with many examples), along with three scenarios. The actions recommendations are: 1) Provide treatment in primary care; 2) make psychotropic drugs available; 3) give care in the community; 4) educate the public; 5) involve communities, families, and consumers; 6) establish national policies, programs and legislation; 7) develop human resources; link with other sectors; 9) monitor community mental health; and 10) support more research. The scenarios are based on a societies’ resources, which of course, in any governmental action setting, is the most important critical uncertainty to launch any or all of the above ten (10) actions.
Scenario A: Low Level of Resources. “This scenario refers mostly to low income countries where mental health resources are completely absent or very limited. Such countries have no mental health policy, programs or appropriate legislation; or, if they exist, they are outdated and not implemented effectively. Governmental finances available to mental health are tine, often less than 0.1% of the total health budget. There are no psychiatrists or psychiatric nurses, or very few of them for large populations. Specialized inpatient care facilities, if they exist, do so as centralized mental hospitals, which serve more for custodial care than mental health care, and often have less than one place per 10 000 population. There are no mental health services in primary or community care, and essential psychotropic drugs are seldom available. Mental health is not a part of epidemiological and health reporting systems. While this scenario applies mostly to low income countries, in many high-income countries essential mental health services remain beyond the reach of rural populations, indigenous groups and others. In brief, scenario A is characterized by low awareness and low availability of services. What can be done in such circumstances? Even with very limited resources, countries can immediately recognize mental health as an integral part of general health, and begin to organize the basic mental health services as a part of primary health care. This need not be a costly exercise, and it would be greatly enhanced by the provision of essential neuropsychiatric drugs and in-service training of all general health personnel.”
Scenario B: Medium Level Resources. ‘In countries in this scenario, some resources are available for mental health, such as centers for treatment in big cities or pilot programmes for community care. But these resources neither do nor provide even essential mental health services to the total population. These countries are likely to have mental health policies, programmes and legislation, but they are often not fully implemented. The government budget for mental health is less than 1% of the total health budget. There are inadequate numbers of mental health specialists, such as psychiatrists and psychiatric nurses, to serve the population. Primary care providers are largely untrained in mental health care. Specialized care facilities have fewer than five places per 10 000 population, and most of these are in large and centralized mental hospitals. Availability of psychotropic drugs and treatment for major mental disorders in primary care is limited and community mental health programmes are scarce. Admission and discharge records from mental hospitals provide the only information available in health reporting systems. To summarize, scenario B is characterized by medium awareness and medium access to mental health care. For these countries the immediate action should be to enlarge mental health services to cover the total population. This can be done by extending training to all health personnel on essential mental health care, providing neuropsychiatric drugs in all health facilities, and bringing all of these activities under a mental health policy. A start should be made on closing down custodial hospitals and building community care facilities. Mental health care can be introduced in workplaces and schools.
Scenario C: High Level of Resources. This scenario relates mostly to industrialized countries with a relatively high level of resources for mental health. Mental health policies, programmes and legislation are implemented reasonable effectively. The proportion of the total health budget allocated to mental health is 1% or more, and there are adequate numbers of specialized mental health professionals. Most primary care providers are trained in mental health care. Efforts are made to identify and treat major mental disorders in primary care, though effectiveness and coverage may be inadequate. Specialized care facilities are more comprehensive, but most may still be located in mental hospitals. Psychotropic drugs are readily available and community-based services are generally available. Mental health forms a part of health information systems, although only a few indicators may be included. Even in these countries there are many barriers to the utilization of the available services. People with mental disorders and their families experience stigma and discrimination. Insurance policies fail to provide cover for the care of people with mental disorders to the same extent as for those with physical illness.”
Scenarios of the Future of Biotechnology – 2010, 2020, & 2040. Fortune Magazine, “The Amazing Future of Business” series, March 6, 2000. “Blessings from the Book of Life” Author: David Stipp interviewing Francis Collins, The Genome Institute’s chief, Joshua Boger, CEO of Vertex Pharmaceuticals, and Cheryl & Diana Jay, University of California at San Francisco.
The author, David Stripp, specializes in writing on scientific topics, and in 1998 co-wrote the "Selling of Impotence" which won a Science in Society Award from the National Association of Science Writers. In this article, the author writes about future trends and the bounty of biotech. He writes, " Decoding the human genome will yield a bounty of biotech miracles that will transform our lives in the next 40 years.” By the year 2010: "We'll start winning the war on cancer. In this scenario - let say, a person experiences back pain, night sweats, and loss of appetite, and then find an egg-like swelling under the arm. Today a doctor would analyze biopsied cells from your lump with an instrument using 400 year old technology, the microscope and make an educated guess: You have non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. You'd get a one-size fits all chemotherapy that might work. If it doesn't your doctor would tell you not to despair - other drugs might save you. In 2010, your doctor will scan your biopsied cells with a DNA array, a computer-chip-like device that registers the activity patterns of thousands of genes in cells. It will quickly establish that your lymphoma is actually one of six genetically distinguishable types of T-cell cancer, each of which is known to respond best to somewhat different drugs. Another gene testing device called a SNP ("snip") chip will flag medicines that won't work in your case because your particular liver enzymes tend to break them down too fast.... (see full scenario in article)... the best thing about this scenario is that it is already in the works. Already, researchers have shown that they can distinguish different forms of leukemia according to abnormal patterns of gene activity in cancerous blood cells. " By the year 2020: "Drug developments will be vastly accelerated by techniques akin to testing new aircraft designs in wind tunnels, predicts Joshua Boger, CEO of Vertex Pharmaceuticals, a Cambridge, Mass. biotech company. Researchers will begin clinical trials by giving safe, tiny doses of, say, half-a-dozen possible variations of a new medicine to volunteers. The drug's effects on thousands of genes and proteins will be monitored and analyzed by computer to predict how higher "therapeutic" doses will affect people of various genotypes. That will enable researchers to select the optimal molecules and immediately begin large, pivotal clinical trials, skipping initial phases of testing that now often takes years. The result: Gene-based drugs geared to patients' genotypes will be available for most major killers. Some big diseases will be on the way out--rheumatoid arthritis and other auto immune diseases such as lupus will be essentially curable by drugs that selectively switch off parts of the immune system that attach patient's own tissues. Potent new therapies will be available to treat once mysterious diseases, such as schizophrenia and narcolepsy, at the level of root causes. " By the Year 2040: " Individualized preventive medicine will be the gold standard in this world. Gene therapy, as well as more traditional gene-based drugs, will be available for most diseases. It will be possible to hold most cancers in check for many years. Alzheimer's disease, which will be detectable before symptoms appear, will usually be preventable. The average life span in the developed world will top 90. U.S. health costs will reach a third of GDP. Key genes involved in aging will be identified, and clinical trials of anti-aging drugs will be underway. ...Clinical trials to boost IQ, memory, and other mental powers will be under way....Top of the Page
The Workplace in 2050 – Office Fantasies of the Future. Fortune Magazine, “The Amazing Future of Business” series, March 6, 2000. Author: Nicolas Stein interviewing Carl Magnusson of Knoll Design, Inc. and David Strohl, of AllSteel Division, Hon Industries.
"In these visions of the workplace of 2050, seats float and holograms talk. But whatever happened to the wate cooler? " In this article, the author explores ergonomics of the future - never mind the 8 year studies and attempts by Congress to pass remedies for an "ergonomically correct” workplace. Stein envisions ergonomics and design going hand-in-hand in the future. In future, we will continue to live our entire lives at the workplace, so like Yahoo, we may as well try to make it as comfortable as possible. Stein interviews Carl Magnusson, director of design for Knoll, a design company. Knoll's Scenario "There are no new ideas... only better combinations of existing things." In his vision of the workplace in 2050, people will need chairs to sit in and flat surfaces to work on, but magnetic levitation (maglev) devices will enable them to float on those chairs and move about at will. Technology will have permeated our world, so PCs and phones will have vanished into the walls. Magnussen even believes that noise cancellation --opposite and equal sounds waves neutralizing each other -- will eliminate both the need for concrete walls and the distractions of a cubicle filled office space. Virtual dividers of adjustable opacity... will be made possible by a similar process of image cancellation -- will be activated when privacy is required. As technology recedes, human interaction becomes the focus. That, he opines, is "The DNA of the office.... the ceremony, the ritual, the intangible stuff of social relations." Our movable chairs will also be wireless, linked by a tiny apparatus implanted in our ears. Want to access some information on the network? Simply think about it, and a holographic projector in the chair will display the data at a bandwidth accessible only to you; if you wish, you can pick up the material to show to someone else. How it will work, exactly, is unclear. Even videoconferencing will become more holistic, replaces by hologram-filled séances. They will link workers from different locations in a "shared virtual room". Communication again is the focus; the technology that makes it possible will be virtually invisible." Hon Industries: Everyone Gets a Corner Office: "The relationship between furniture and technology has evolved dramatically over the past 50 years, and according to the design team at Hon Industries' AllSteel division, its further evolution will define the workplace of 2050. Consider the first TV's for example, which were treated like pieces of furniture. Now flat-screen TVs the size of picture frames has morphed into furniture, a trend that will continue. Communication and information devices will be integrated into chairs, walls, and even the work surfaces themselves...resulting in the replacement of keyboards and phones with voice recognition. Just ask, and you'll see data like stock quotes, news -- even the time your daughter's soccer game - displayed simultaneously on a flat screen. It is believed that virtual technology will make telecommuting feel more intimate and realistic. Holograms are central to his vision -- he thinks 3-D images of faraway colleagues will show up at our office to tap us on the shoulder. Such ghostly friendships has better feel real enough to compensate for the absence of human contact, as most centralized corporate complexes will give way to small office clusters. ... The workplace of 2050 is equitable; everyone deserves to see something great out the window. By 2050, look for small, scattered offices designed with domed glass ceilings and walls. The result? Direct sunlight, which will bring both a psychological boon and an environmental one- the easy and efficient collection of solar power.Top of the Page
A Scenario of Choice in the 21st Century and New Economy. A scenario from the book, “The Future of Success”. Author: Robert B. Reich, published in 2000 by Random House, Inc. New York, NY.
The author's premise is that as technology and innovation continue to accelerate and impact society, it won’t equate to productivity as we know it – a productivity that creates a richer world in which wealth can give workers the freedom to work a shorter workweek. Rather, the future holds more work. Reich demonstrates that the faster the economy changes – “with new innovations and opportunities engendering faster switches by customers and investors in response -- the harder it is for people to be confident of what they will be earning next year or even next month, what they will be doing, where they will be doing it. In short, these fabulous new deals of the fabulous new economy carry a steep price: more frenzied lives, less security, more economic and social stratification, and loss of time and energy for family, relationships, friendship, community, and self.” The pattern in every chapter of Reich' book is basically this premise: as innovation becomes a mainstream goal of organizations, and "new deals" increase, talent, brains, "geeks" and "shrinks" will continue to be in high demand - these workers will devote their lives to work, consuming their entire lives within the office; practically doubling the number of hours in their workweeks due to the human tendency is to want more, not less. The number of hours it will take to achieve “more” won’t matter; while non-talented workers who do ordinary things, with ordinary jobs and routine tasks are at the highest risk of job loss, downsizing, and technology replacement – to be caught in a 21st Century aparteid. These workers, like the talented, will work longer hours, but it will be of necessity to survive. They will devote their lives to work as well - working double shifts - consuming their entire lives but for a totally different reason - survival. It will mean no time for school, for continual learning, or self-improvement, much less leisure or family life. This book brings the reader to many visions and scenarios of the future. In the last chapter, "Public Choice", Reich draws a vivid picture of future trends and a discussion of social choices that "society will simply have to make.” Reich’s Scenario: "Though we cannot know for certain the shape of the future, many of the trends that will carry us there are already clear. Today we can see the emergence of vibrant new economy brimming with innovations. In the near future, consumers will be able to get exactly what they want, from wherever, at the best price and value. And when a better deal comes along, they'll be able to switch at the blink of an eye -- or the click of the mouse. Investors will be able to shift their money instantly to better deals around the world. People whose services are in great demand will be able o move to better opportunities with exuberant ease. Jobs will be abundant, many of them exciting and well paid. There is much to in this picture to celebrate; yet there is also much that should at least give us pause. The economic dynamism we're beginning to see also brings financial insecurity, work that's more frenzied and intrusive, widening inequality of income and wealth, and greater social stratification--all of which is eroding personal, family, and community life. It seems an opportune moment to ask whether we are headed down the path of the scenario we wish to go -- that is, to examine many scenarios of the social choices that lie before us. One scenario of choice in the 21st Century is what Reich outlines in "New Economy" . He discusses the two extremes of choice - social consciousness or simply, an acceleration of today. "At the other extreme, we could put our foot on the accelerator and let er' rip. We could choose the path of fastest growth, widest choice, and quickest switch. Pursue this path to its logical end, and we all would be working in a giant global network. Each of our incomes would depend on continuous spot auctions bids for our services. All government supports - regulation, insurance, pooled benefits -- would be dismantled as the sorting mechanism became perfectly efficient worldwide. The spectrum from exceedingly rich to exceedingly poor in every nation would exactly reflect the widest spectrum of wealth and poverty in the world. Your own position on that spectrum would depend on how hard you worked and sold yourself (and your children's eventual position, on how hard they worked to become little paragons of ambition and potential commercial value). We would overflow in material wealth, but no one would feel economically secure. And in the meantime, our society will have been pulled apart, sharply sorted, rendered indistinguishable from any other spot on the globe. Thumbs up? Thumbs down? What do we choose? For most people, neither extreme is especially attractive. So, in the end, we’re left with the question of balance. "Top of the Page
Visions of the Family in the 21st Century. Study commissioned by Xerox Corporation on view, perspectives, and visions of the family of the 21st Century by students around the world. The book is based on the second DocuWorld Authors Competition and a collaborative effort of Cascade Press and Xerox Corporation.
IN 1999, Xerox Corporation commissioned a study, "Looking Inward: Visions of the 21st Century Family." interviewing students from around the world. This study is not a scientific study and the stories described in the book are not scenarios, but just images of the future. However, it gives an insight in the perspectives of students around the world of how they see the future. The book is based on ‘The Second DocuWorld Authors Competition’, and is the result of the collaborative efforts of Cascade Press and Xerox Corporation. Tens of thousands of young people (14-18 years of age) entered the competition, which was held in four cities on three continents in the world, namely Amsterdam, Chicago, Los Angeles and São Paulo. The competitors were allowed to choose any literary form they wanted. In this book the winning stories are presented. Some are shortly summarized below. The future stories focus on family life in the 21st century. They are images of the future, days in the life of people that live in the late 21st century. Youngsters in the 21st century (Brazil) Her story is about the influence technology has on society. She states that in Brazil the influence is very serious and it is not developing in the right direction. Children get in touch with technologies from their early days on and they get a wrong picture of reality. According to her the solution to this problem lies in a greater investment from the government in education. In this way the youngsters are able to absorb the good part of technology. Dutch stories are incorporated in the book: The Netherlands : a story is a dream in which a boy, Ted, thinks he is frozen into hibernation in 1998 and defrosted in 2099. His new parents select him from a Cyber-space-shop. Due to a lot of frightening diseases, people are not allowed to produce children anymore. The people live in a dome city, because the ozone layer has completely been shattered. At the time Ted awakes only ninety thousand people live on earth in this dome. All roads have disappeared and are replaced by belts. The sky has a purple pinkish glow and people take day-trips to the moon. All shopping’s are done by means of video screens in the living room. The eating of meat is forbidden. Another Story: This story takes place in the year 2022 and is about an eighteen year old boy, Alex, who is involved in an accident in which he loses an arm. The arm is replaced by an iron arm of which everybody is frightened. He lives with his mother in a very small old house. Time is very precious these days and nobody seems to know how to cook anymore; every meal is made in the microwave. Public traffic is so crowded that every day people are crushed to death in the crowds. Also the values have changed. Alex once hits a man with his iron arm and h