My primary employment is in:

Instructions: Please add your comments in the blank spaces provided and at the end of the working draft of this scenario.

Scenario 4: Political Turmoil

The failure of nation-states and international organizations to make serious decisions is making them irrelevant. Political conflicts over oil are increasing. Transnational organized crime syndicates – with nearly three times more money than that of all the 2020 military budgets combined – play out their power struggles through governments, corporations, and even NGOs. Systems of all kinds from medical records to financial transfers have become so complex that individuals are bewildered and “experts” are lost. Media empires have unwittingly countered much of the moral underpinnings of society with an “anything the market wants” attitude. The health and retirement costs of the aging populations around the world have forced many governments to cut benefits for all ages, which has led to increasing protests and general strikes. Selfish individualism seems to be replacing communal values, making international law meaningless. Global climate change continues. Terrorism has increased because too many see the governing systems as unjust, and international cooperation is breaking down. Migrations of the poor to the rich areas spark riots and expose the horrific income gaps. There is a real fear that the world is slowly being taken over by high tech warlords, as growing numbers of economic and environmental refugees roam the earth.

The most dramatic of the recent migrations are the Afro-Indo-China-water migrations into Europe and North America, which have triggered a series of ethnic and racial conflicts with no end in sight. The EU and NATO create political stability in Europe only for short periods of time until the next eruption occurs. The US economy was so weakened by the costs of wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and generally against terrorism, that it was difficult for it to play a role in reducing conflicts around the world. The EU was not able to reach agreements on strategies to replace the US roles. UN Peacekeeping Forces were overstretched and underfunded. The conflicts in Saudi Arabia, China, Iraq, Angola, the Caucasus, China, and Nigeria over the past two decades have made oil supply irregular and kept oil prices above US$150 per barrel[1] for the past several years. As a result the world seems to be in a perpetual state of stagflation.


Terror Version 2.0

Prior to the multi-weapon world attack on September 11, 2011, terrorists used only one medium at a time, but the combination of conventional explosives, dirty bombs, and bioweapons changed the world forever. This was a well-planned, fully coordinated, and expertly executed simultaneous attack on oil systems, airports, and cities. The world is still stunned and bewildered by the events and consequences of Terror Version 2.0 – as it became known. Three twinned dirty bombs were detonated, one each in Europe, Asia, and North America. 26 of the world’s major oil extraction sites, 13 refineries, 100 supply depots, and 3 shipping lane choke-points were hit with conventional explosives within 30 seconds of each other around the world. This reduced oil supplies by 20% for almost a year. On the same day 19 martyrs, who had previously ingested individual disease packages, infected passengers in the busiest airports of Europe, Asia, and North America. The price of gasoline quintupled overnight, spot prices were never more volatile, long-term contracts for oil were abrogated, trading in carbon rights was suspended, electricity and gas disruptions multiplied, many banks closed and

The disruption of the Pan European pipeline that delivered oil to Europe from the Caspian Sea area and Russia placed Europe in a very tight supply situation for about six months. During this time gasoline rationing was instituted. There were frequent electricity brownouts across Europe as a result of the shutdown of the natural gas pipeline that ran from Turkmenistan through Azerbaijan and Georgia and finally terminated in Europe after crossing Turkey. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline[2] was designed to make Europe independent of Russian oil supply and the threat of a Russian oil monopoly, but cutting this pipeline made Europe once again dependent on Russia’s oil. Russia would have been glad to fill the gap but Russian oil and natural gas production was also disrupted.

The major OPEC countries were having troubles of their own. The Red Sea export port of Yanbu in western Saudi Arabia was closed as a result of an effectively placed bomb, and in Iraq, Basra's oil terminal suffered huge damage from a waterborne attack by suicide bombers.[3] In Canada, bombs shut down the Alberta production of oil from tar sands and oil exports to the United States from Canada essentially stopped. Oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico also came under waterborne suicide attacks and fifteen rigs were shut down. In Iran, the North Sea, and Alaska the story was the same. Other targets were:

Figure 1. The Caucasus

Source: BBC

This in turn caused stress between the Turkish government and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which declared autonomy in the Southeast. The Turkish government, assisted by the Shi'a factions of the new Iraqi government, who were afraid of strengthening the Kurdish parties in the Iraqi government, sent troops, effectively ending a five-year truce with the PKK.

The EU froze Turkey’s accession talks, which pushed Turkey further into the Middle Eastern orbit. Iran’s power and influence grew in the region, and its overt support for the Shi'ites in Iraq effectively ended the tenuous Iraqi national cohesion. What followed were

Figure 2. China

Source: BBC

Counter-demonstrations in the richer cities in the coastal regions expressed anger towards the Uighur. There were racial and anti-Islamic overtones. A new wave of protests broke out by the Uighur in Xinjiang, which in turn were met by police violence. Most in China supported the crackdown on the Uighur and the imposition of martial law in areas of Xinjiang where ULO activities were the strongest. This incited the more moderate Muslim Uighurs, who called on the Islamic insurgents from the Central Asian republics and the Middle East to assist their new pan-Islamic Uighur state. This led to the current state of civil war in Northwestern China today and quickly reduced China’s oil production, further accelerating its efforts for increased international oil access, beyond the 8 million barrels of oil per day it was consuming. China was able to leverage its vast holdings of US debt to prevent U.S. criticism of its civil wars and tactics. As a result

Figure 3. East China Sea

Source: BBC

Japan accelerated its effort when Russia agreed to provide their oil pipeline access to China instead of Japan.[4] This made it politically impossible for Japan to make any compromise on the gas fields in the East China Sea. Further complications were conflicting treaties. Japan claimed the area under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea that allows coastal countries to claim an economic zone extending up to 370 kilometers from their shorelines. Both Japan and China are parties to this agreement. China claims the area under the 1958 Geneva Convention on the Continental Shelf that allows coastal countries to extend their borders to the edges of their undersea continental shelves.[5] Although weakened politically and economically by the costs of past wars and the current need for energy, the U.S. was able to send its Seventh Fleet on naval maneuvers near the deputed area, and then China and Japan agreed to take the issue to the World Court in The Hague. Tensions still remain high while the oil and gas pumps are on hold, and

Figure 4: Russia's Eastern Pipeline Choice

Source: BBC

The Arctic

Global warming continues to melt the polar ice. Huge resources have become more and more accessible in the Arctic, where a quarter of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas are estimated to reside. Norway, Denmark (through Greenland), Russia, Canada and the United States are competing for access.[6] The dispute revolves around the different methods of measuring maritime frontiers. The median line method, supported by Canada and Denmark, would divide the Arctic sea between countries according to their length of nearest coastline. This would give Denmark the Pole itself but Canada would gain as well. The sector method would take the North Pole as the centre and draw lines south along longitudes. This would penalize Canada but Norway and, to a lesser extent, Russia would gain.

Figure 5. The Arctic Region

Source: BBC

The United States and Canada argue over rights in the Northwest Passage, Norway and Russia over the Barents Sea, Canada and Denmark are competing over a small island off Greenland, the Russian parliament is refusing to ratify an agreement with the United States over the Bering Sea, and Denmark is seeking to trump everyone by claiming the North Pole itself. The United States has yet to sign the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea. If the World Court does not resolve these issues, or if one or more parties do not accept its ruling, then

Figure 6. The Middle East

Source: BBC

The future of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Region seems to depend, more than ever, on

Meanwhile, Russia, Europe, and New Nuclear Plants

Russia had no fuel supply concerns that would have led it to use nuclear rather than fossil power plants. As possessor of a huge nuclear arsenal, Russia had no need for a commercial nuclear sector to disguise weapons work. Yet Russia decided to pursue the nuclear route for domestic electricity and to export its fossil fuels. Absent the regulations and litigious NGOs of the West, this strategy allows it to export the hydrocarbons that it would otherwise use internally.[8]

Russia built dozens of nuclear reactors for several reasons. By building these plants, they further developed a technology that they thought might someday be exportable. Additionally, excess electricity production would allow them to supply nations previously in the Soviet Union and thus bring them further into Russia’s economic orbit. The Russian plan, now largely accomplished, was to build about 40 new nuclear reactors in order to increase the share of nuclear energy in the nation's energy balance to 25%. Although many experts forecast that a means for safe storage of nuclear waste is likely by 2030, the increasing opportunities to hijack radioactive waste during transport are still a worry. It was during transport that such radioactive wastes found their way into the “dirty bombs” of September 11, 2011. Nevertheless, the designs for the new Russian nuclear plants were a step forward. They were specifically designed to be secure from terrorist attacks and, based on the Chernobyl experience, to be as free as possible from human or mechanical malfunction.

One of Russia’s most important energy exports was and still is natural gas. In a series of power moves between 2005 and 2008, private ownership of energy resources was replaced again by state ownership, clearly a step back toward the old days. This shift was evident when the Yukos natural gas venture was terminated and Gazprom (the state-owned company) became the natural gas monopoly. Natural gas is delivered from Russia to Europe in a 1,200km, $5 billion pipeline along the Baltic seabed. It was almost destroyed in the 2011 attacks but now is repaired. It provides Gazprom a direct route to the European markets and bypasses Poland and the Baltic states.[9] Europe still relies heavily on the exported Russian gas, and hence has a interest in trying to keep Russia politically stable, which may not be possible. Therefore, the EU sought to diversify its energy supply by developing coal gasification technology, wind, solar, and other forms of renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, the importance of the Russian gas led the EU to political compromises in the UN and in trade agreements that might not have been necessary in other circumstances. Europe is still trying to make a common energy policy that will help assure continuing and stable supply.

Unstable Oil Supply forces the United States and Canada Closer Together

Canada has joined the ranks of major energy exporters with its development of tar sands, bitumen, and heavy oils. As a result, its relationship with the United States has become much closer, since they are now a supplier of a strategic energy commodity. This has led to many joint endeavors to develop technological breakthroughs for stretching the amount of oil extracted from any one well, conservation techniques that improve efficiency, cleaner uses of coal, and

Efforts to create serious international governance structures that require compromise and give and take negotiations have largely failed over the past twenty years. Ethnic groups and countries are looking out for their own interests. An electronic iron curtain has come down between the knowledge-able and the knowledge-less. The decay of family and social values, corruption, and transnational crime became the governing elements in the system. The decay of family and social values, corruption, and transnational crime have become the governing elements in the system. Few seem to care about the environment or their neighbors. One wonders if the world has entered a new kind of World War III.


What would make this scenario more plausible and useful?