Biomass Energy. Natural Resources Defense Council
The Human Genone Project: What Does Decoding DNA Mean for Us? Author: Kevin Alexander
The Future of Life. Edward O. Wilson
Tomorrow Now, Envisioning the Next Fifty Years. Bruce Sterling
Our Posthuman Future, Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution. Author: Francis Fukuyama
Energy and Transportation Task Force Report. Author: Global Business Network
Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. Author: Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Plotting Corporate Futures: Biotechnology Examines What Could Go Wrong. Author: Barnaby J. Feder
Scenarios for a Clean Future (CEF). Report commissioned by the US Department of Energy (DOE)
Weathering the Debate Over Climate Change. Author: Peter Schwartz
Game Changer. Author: Anders Hove
Scenarios for society and the environment in 2020. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
A Whole Earth View of the Global Environment and Environmental Movement. Peter Warshall, Whole Earth
World Energy Outlook 2000. International Energy Agency (IEA)
2050: A Scenario for People and Forests. Jan Laarman, Journal of Forestry 2/01/00
Sustainable Farming, Possibilities 1999-2020: A Discussion Paper. Science Council of Canada, 1991
Will we Still Eat Meat? Ed Ayers, Time Magazine. November, 1999. Special Issue on the 21st Century
Victory Cities. Orville Simpson, author and inventor; <www.victorycities.com>, 1999.
Global Energy Perspectives: A Summary of the Joint Study by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy Council. Arnulf Grubler, Michael Jefferson, and Nebojsa Nakicenovic. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 51, 237-264 (1996)
After Man: A Zoology of the Future. Dougal Dixon, Published 1981. Evolutionary scenarios.
Our Common Future. Faye Dunchin and Glenn-Marie Lange. Oxford University Press, 1994.
Our Drowning World: Population, Pollution, and Future Weather. Anthony Milne, Bridgeport, Dorset UK: Prism Press, March 1988/154p. A environmental scenario to mid-21st Century.
In this scenario, the NRDC discusses the future use of biomass as a
source of energy (such as electricity or liquid fuels) and its benefits.
“In the future, modern technology for using biomass and farms cultivating
high yield energy crops, including many varieties of trees and grasses,
will significantly expand the available supply of sustainable biomass energy.
“New technologies will eventually allow us to use whole plants such
as fast growing willow trees and switch grass to produce ethanol, a more
promising option from both an economic and an environmental perspective.
Biomass energy crops, if grown in bulk, could be a profitable alternative
for farmers, complementing existing crops and providing an additional source
of income. A substantial amount of agricultural land exists that is marginal
for conventional crop production but could be brought into productive use
by growing energy crops. Perennial herbaceous and woody energy crops can
be selected that also provide advantages such as erosion protection, drought
tolerance, and improved animal habitat.
“The development of more productive agricultural processes that generate
food, fuel, chemicals and fiber products in an integrated system will create
more revenue for farmers and more rural jobs. In addition, expanded biomass
power deployment can create high-skill, high-value job opportunities for
utility and power equipment vendors, power plant owners and operators,
and agricultural equipment vendors.
“The future widespread adoption of biomass energy in the United States
depends in great part on the adoption of policies that address the global
warming problem seriously by requiring reductions in fossil fuel use. Today,
the success or failure of biomass as a promising, environmentally and economically
sound energy source depends greatly on political factors. Tomorrow, perhaps,
adoption of more biomass energy will be more of a necessity than a luxury
as our fossil fuel-based resources continue to dwindle.”
The
Human Genone Project: What Does Decoding DNA Mean for Us? Author: Kevin
Alexander Boon, 2002, Enslow Publishers Inc.
(No notes on the author; book was written for young adults) Biology
Scenario. Taken from Chapter 8, A Look to the Future, page 103
Author Kevin Boon lays out a future of the 21st century in which he
sees probable cures for cancer, Alzheimer’s, and other genetic disorders.
In the near term future, he believes cloning will become “as commonplace
as surgery” but the activity of cloning will predominately be used to perpetuate
a desirable genetic code among animals or to grow organs for human transplants.
It is unlikely, Boon states, there will be much human cloning in the near
future. But he does see parental efforts to genetically design children
coming on strong. Although he believes public opinion and legislation will
limit how much parents can actually engineer, he also believes parents
will eventually see genetic engineering of their children as a right.
By 2100, Boon predicts life expectancy will be 150 to 200 years.
The
Future of Life. Edward O. Wilson, 2002, Random House.
(Note on author: Edward Wilson is author of two Pulitzer Prize winning
books on science and conservation. Currently he is the Pellegrino University
Research Professor and Honorary Curator in Entomology of the Museum of
Comparative Zoology at Harvard. He lives in Lexington, MA)
The Future of Life: A Scenario: In The Future of Life, author Edward
Wilson presents a scenario describing the ecological state of the world
in 2100, if current trends continue. Wilson envisions a world supporting
a global population of nine to ten billion that occupies all remaining
habitable areas on the plant. The “techno-scientific” civilization of the
wealthy and elite countries has resulted in populations that better fed
and more educated than during the previous century. But the majority of
the world population remains living in developing countries and remains
poor. Although war is rare, tensions and conflicts exist between the elite
countries and “resentful poor countries.”
Generally, humanity is living longer; post-centarians are commonplace.
Birthrates, however, have plummeted, particularly in the richest countries.
Young people are recruited to these countries from the poor. The genetic
homogenization of the world population has accelerated and individual biological
races grow fainter as each generation passes.
By 2100, the natural world is considerably degraded. “Frontier forests
are typically gone” as are most of the world’s biodiversity “hotspots”
and half of the plant and animals species. There is no Amazon, no Congo,
no New Guinea wilderness; “coral reefs, rivers and other aquatic habitats
are badly deteriorated.” The few remaining wild habitats are closely guarded.
“The fragmentary biodiversity that survived to 2100 has also become
much more geographically simplified” thanks to easy migration of organisms.
“To travel around the world along any chosen latitude is to encounter mostly
the same small set of introduced birds, mammals, insects, and microbes.”
The human population understands, too late, “that Earth is a much poorer
place than it was back in 2000, and will stay that way forever.”
“Such is likely to be the world of 2100—if present trends continue.”
Tomorrow Now, Envisioning the Next Fifty Years. Bruce Sterling, 2002, Random House.
In his recent book, Bruce Sterling describes a biotech future in which
“inside of you is where it’s at” and bacteria is your friend. People are
“DNA literate,” according to Sterling, “even a five year old child can
tell you not just that you have an influenza virus but what kind you have
and where it came from.” Bacteria are viewed as “little chemical factories
that can put DNA to work. They turn raw, cheap chemical feedstocks into
almost anything that DNA can make: proteins, hormones, drugs, antibodies
– and structural materials: skin, horn, bone, coral, bamboo, plastics even.”
People drive hydrogen powered vehicles that cause no pollution and will,
upon command, become compost. Showers are in fact, body imaging systems
that scan daily for health status while toilets measure and report a body’s
metabolic information. There are no human conditions such as tooth decay
or dandruff, and glasses are no longer needed. “Pills don’t contain drugs
but rather organisms that make drugs inside of you.” Homes are made
entirely of organic substances; lawns are biodiverse centers. And although
the world is genetically altered, there are no mutants or monsters.
Sustainable
Food and Farming in the Connecticut River Valley: A Vision. Author:
Small Systems Company, 1995.
http://www.smsys.com/pub/cisa/part4.htm
Note: Small Systems Company provides design, consulting, and production services in four general areas: 1) technology and enterprise, 2) environmental restoration and planning, 3) architecture and construction, and 4) community and business development). Small Systems Company created a series of scenarios on the topics of farming and sustainability. The scenarios are set in the year 2020.
FUTURE SCENARIO 1: The Farm and Food Council is holding its regular monthly meeting. The Youth Farm Service Corps director reports that urban youth have enrolled for mandatory two year programs and one teen in the group indicates they are now “compost-certified.” The Valley Farmland Trust reports it is purchasing 1400 developed acreage that will be returned to farmland and discusses the possibility of installing “bubbles” over land creating greenhouse so the growing season can be extended to year-round. The Grow Local campaign is reported a success.
FUTURE SCENARIO 2: Sixty Minutes is doing a segment on the successs of the farming effort in the valley. Mike Wallace reports that food production in the area has doubled over the last 25 years thanks to two programs: the Grow Local campaign and teen education and training in farming. He also reports that this community has no jails; lawbreakers are put to work on local farms instead of in jails.
FUTURE SCENARIO 3: The setting is an auction of the last premium space for farming and recreation in the area. The closing bid: 150 million dollars (US).
FUTURE SCENARIO 4: Town Meeting is scheduled for tonight. On the agenda: a proposal to increase subsidies to farm workers. The proposal is expected to pass without any problems.
FUTURE SCENARIO 5: Malls no longer exist in the valley; they have been replaced by farms. Residents now predominately buy foods that are locally grown. Kids belong to very active 4-H clubs. The bike path gets lots of use; waking is a favorite mode of transportation. People are now more environmentally conscious.
FUTURE SCENARIO 6: Grandparents describe the 20th century to their grandson. It was a time when people ate something called a hamburger, at a place called McDonald's, but McDonald’s no longer exists; and when Styrofoam was heavily used and is still cluttering the landfills. Grandfather describes his involvement in setting up the clustered housing they now live in and Uncle Terry’s work to rid the river of jet skis and other mechanized vehicles. The youth asks about taxes. Grandfather explains that there are no longer taxes.
FUTURE SCENARIO 7: At a gathering at a local restaurant, where, of course only locally grown food is served, participants are electronically communicating with farmers from all over the world. They are reporting that the area is importing substantially less food than it did 25 years ago and that most of the food in stores here is now locally grown. The farmers, sporting an average age of 35 years, are solvent, crops are stable and provide them with a good return. Organic farming has replaced chemical-intensive farming. Agriculture is taught in the schools; even the youngest understand the food and waste systems. Ninety-five percent of waste is composed.
SCENARIO THEMES: In the year 2020 - Composting and recycling are practiced diligently; resources are renewed; the "grow local/buy local" campaign has paid off; wisdom and expertise are routinely imparted via the Internet - advances in communications technology allow the exchange of ideas, advice and knowledge on an international level with "sister cities; financial support is provided through bank loans, barter, collectives, development corporations; first-time farmers receive the aid that was not available a quarter-century earlier; farmland is passed on through families, and continues to be used for agricultural purposes; farming no longer relies solely on petroleum and pesticides; advances in biotechnology have improved the quality quantity and shelf life of crops; genetic engineering has created disease- and pest-resistant livestock and crops; the growing season is extended, and we can grow fruits and vegetables that once flourished only in tropical climates; children are an integral part of the farming community; agriculture is incorporated in the curriculum in all grades; a career in farming has prestige; housing is clustered; there is a shift toward more human, family, community values; the extended family is once again a visible component of the community; the community is more self-sufficient.
Our Posthuman Future, Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution. Author: Francis Fukuyama, 2002, Farrar, Straus, and Giroux Pub.
In his most recent book, Francis Fukuyama takes the position that “biotech
will have profound and potentially terrible consequences for our political
order and belief that human beings are equal by nature.” Biotech’s most
significant threat, he states, is the possibility that it will alter human
nature and thereby move us into a "posthuman" stage that will have “malign
consequences for liberal democracy and the nature of politics itself.”
He argues for regulatory limits on biotech advances and believes such limits
can be enforced by the global community.
Fukuyama puts forth a number for future scenarios for the next one
or two generations:
“The first scenario has to do with new drugs. As a result of advances in neuropharmacology, psychologists discover that human personality is much more plastic than formerly believed…..But in the future, knowledge of genomics permits pharmaceutical companies to tailor drugs very specifically to the genetic profiles of individual patients and greatly minimise unintended side effects. Stolid people can become vivacious; introspective ones extroverted; you can adopt one personality on Wednesday and another for the weekend. There is no longer any excuse for anyone to be depressed or unhappy; even "normally" happy people can make themselves happier without worries of addiction, hangovers, or long-term brain damage.
“In the second scenario, advances in stem cell research allow scientists
to regenerate virtually any tissue in the body, such that life expectancies
are pushed well above 100 years. If you need a new heart or liver, you
just grow one inside the chest cavity of a pig or cow; brain damage from
Alzheimer's and stroke can be reversed. The only problem is that there
are many subtle and some not-so-subtle aspects of human ageing that the
biotech industry hasn't quite figured out how to fix: people grow mentally
rigid and increasingly fixed in their views as they age, and try as they
might, they can't make themselves sexually attractive to each other and
continue to long for partners of reproductive age. Worst of all, they just
refuse to get out of the way, not just of their children, but their grandchildren
and great-grandchildren. On the other hand, so few people have children
or any connection with traditional reproduction that it scarcely seems
to matter.
“The social impact of ever increasing life expectancies will depend
…..on the "evenness" of future life-prolonging advances.
The best scenario would be one in which technology simultaneously pushes back parallel ageing processes - for instance, by the discovery of a common molecular source of ageing in all somatic cells, and the delaying of this process throughout the body. Failure of the different parts would come at the same time….“The worst scenario would be one of highly uneven advance, in which, for example, we found ways to preserve bodily health but could not put off age-related mental deterioration. Stem cell research might yield ways to grow new body parts. But without a parallel cure for Alzheimer's, this wonderful new technology would do no more than allow more people to persist in vegetative states for years longer than is currently possible. “An explosion in the number of people in category two might be labeled the "national nursing home scenario", in which people routinely live to be 150 but spend the last 50 years in a state of childlike dependence on caretakers.
“In a third scenario, the wealthy routinely screen embryos before implantation so as to optimise the kind of children they have. You can increasingly tell the social background of a young person by his or her looks and intelligence; if someone doesn't live up to social expectations, he tends to blame bad genetic choices by his parents rather than himself. Human genes have been transferred to animals and even to plants, for research purposes and to produce new medical products; and animal genes have been added to certain embryos to increase their physical endurance or resistance to disease. Scientists have not dared to produce a full-scale chimera, half human and half ape, though they could; but young people begin to suspect that classmates who do much less well than they do are in fact genetically not fully human. Because, in fact, they aren't.”
Energy
and Transportation Task Force Report. Author: Global Business Network
Prepared for the President’s Council on Sustainable Development (1996),
as part of the Sustainable Energy and Transportation Scenarios Project
http://clinton4.nara.gov/PCSD/Publications/TF-Reports/energy_appa.html
The Energy and Transportation Task Force report was one of seven such reports prepared for the President’s Council on Sustainable Development to understand how energy and transportation systems might evolve in the future. The report outlines four scenarios set in the year 2025, which explore the interplay of the global economy and the environment.
Scenario 1) The Way We Are: “This is a world where gradual change continues,
but the future is not necessarily a mirror of the past. The restructuring
of the global economy is the major force shaping this scenario. Fragmentation,
not cooperation, keeps people’s lives a bit unsettled. A shifting
job market in the U.S. and the resulting underemployment keep real incomes
stagnant in many sectors well into the new century. In this world,
people desire more mobility, but also face increasing congestion.
Looking back from 2025, observers would note that most Americans are better
off, in part due to technology instead of rapidly increasing incomes, but
remain conce
rned by chronic social problems and a latent perception that the United
States is no longer the world’s economic power.”
Scenario 2) Inclusive Development: “This is a world where social and economic priorities overwhelm environmental ones, at least temporarily. Over the course of the 1990s, a new social consensus emerges in the U.S., acknowledging that the widening gap in incomes and advancement opportunities is not sustainable. As the trend continued into the 1990s, concerns about social justice came into the forefront – a concern that already motivated many environmentally concerned citizens. The Inclusive Development scenario presents the story of a new political bargain that delays the timing of environmental progress.”
Scenario 3) Eco-Crisis: “In this future, the onset of global climate
change is characterized by increasing weather variability and turbulence,
which quickly reaches crisis intensity by the year 2001. This phenomenon
is not limited to the United States, as Asia, Europe and other pa
rts of the globe are hard hit. Following close behind are two
nuclear accidents in Europe, which surprise and shock the world.
A series of steps, which move beyond strictly environmental concerns to
include trade and security, are taken to restructure and ensure a more
harmonious relationship between the environment and economic development.”
Scenario 4) Eco-Eco-Tech (Economic-Ecological-Technologies): “This is a world of increasing environmental awareness linked with a strong U.S. (and global) economy, technological developments, and governmental initiatives to create cooperative win-win solutions. Unlike the previous scenarios, this world is driven by the values of the baby boomers, who occupy top management and policy positions and favor market and incentive-based approaches. But as this scenario plays out, not everyone in society benefits from these technological changes, with technological elites receiving most of the gains from economic and environmental improvements.”
North
American Transportation Energy Futures Study – Long Term Scenarios to 2050.
Office of Transportation Technologies Department of Energy, July 2002
www.ott.gov/future_highway.htnl
The North American Transportation Energy Futures Study outlines three long-term scenarios for the evolution of the North American transportation sector through the period 2000-2050. Based on three drivers – energy interdependence, environmental responsiveness and the pace of innovation – the scenarios are designed to estimate the energy, oil carbon and economic impacts of introducing alternative technology/fuels into the North American market over the next 50 years.
Scenario 1) Greening the Pump: “This is a world with a slow pace of innovation, full of energy interdependence and high environmental responsiveness. Fuels such as natural gas are preferred for the North American market while conventional, offshore and oil sands resources are extracted processed and used in incrementally cleaner and more efficient ways. Technology investment is mainly for the demonstration and deployment of off-the-shelf technologies. This focus on deployment and nearer term activities resulted in a very uneven pattern of investment along the innovation chain. The lack of commitment to longer-term planning and R&D in transportation left North American with limited pools of technologies from which to draw on.”
Scenario 2) Rollin’ On: “Full energy interdependence and a revolutionary pace of innovation with low environmental responsiveness have led to a North American transportation sector with a high reliance on fossil fuels. North Americans growing demand for passenger and freight transportation are met by a concerted effort of governments and industry. Rapid growth and capital stock turnover result in the new technologies being developed and deployed as rapidly as possible and North American energy sources tapped and delivered to market.”
Scenario 3) Go Your Own Way: Rapid innovation, limited energy interdependence and high environmental responsiveness have led to regions in North America seeking their own solutions to the development of a sustainable energy system. Rapid innovation has produced a variety of fuel and vehicle choices; however, many of the individual country solutions are constrained by the slate of vehicles and drive trains produced by the U.S. who continues to be one of the major vehicle suppliers. This world sees the greatest strides in renewable energies, fuel cell technology and biofuels.”
Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. Author: Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Princeton Univ Press, October, 2001.
In Hubbert's Peak, Deffeyes writes about the history and future of the oil business. He says quite frankly that, “ the 100-year petroleum era is nearly over. Global oil production will peak sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again.” “…If nothing is done to reduce the increasing global demand for oil--energy prices will soar and economies will be plunged into recession as they desperately search for alternatives.” Is this just another doomsayer forecast? The original author of “Hubbert’s Peak,” M. King Hubbert, was a Shell geologist who, in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s and then begin to decline. Hubbert was dismissed by many experts inside and outside the oil industry. Pro-Hubbert and anti-Hubbert factions arose and persisted until 1970, when U.S. oil production peaked and started its long decline. (Scientific American) The Hubbert method is based on the observation that oil production in any region follows a bell-shaped curve. Production increases rapidly at first, as the cheapest and most readily accessible oil is recovered. As the difficulty of extracting the oil increases, it becomes more expensive and less competitive with other fuels. Production slows, levels off and begins to fall. In the last chaper of this book, “A New Outlook”, Mr. Deffeyes boldly assumes that Hubbert’s theory is correct and makes a case for an imaginative scenario.
Scenario: A Hubbert Scenario of Crisis and a Case for Normative Action. “An unprecedented crisis occurs during the first quarter and second quarter of the 21st Century. There will be chaos in the oil industry, in governments, and in national economies. Even if governments and industries were to recognize the problems, it is too late to reverse the trend. Oil production begins to shrink. In an earlier, politically incorrect era the scene would be described as a "Chinese fire drill." What will happen to the rest of us? In a sense, the oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s were a laboratory test. We were the lab rats in that experiment. Gasoline was rationed both by price and by the inconvenience of long lines at the gas stations. The increased price of gasoline and diesel fuel raised the cost of transporting food to the grocery store. We were told that 90 percent of an Iowa corn farmer's costs were, directly and indirectly, fossil fuel costs. As price rises rippled through the economy, there were many unpleasant disruptions. In the future, particularly around 2010, to avoid deprivation resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.” Anticipating that demand for energy will continue to increase as supplies decline, humanity may, in a normative sense (with the exception of some elements of “Deprivation”), adjust by some combination of the following: Conservation -- the same life-style accomplished with more energy-efficient artifacts ... more fuel-efficient cars; Life-Style Change -- a form of conservation: telecommuting instead of commuting ... back to the land ... living closer to work ... ; Substitution -- using other energy sources to accomplish the same objectives ... solar power... walking not driving .. ; Deprivation -- just plain doing without ... no more plane trips to visit the family across the country ... or, more seriously, pestilence ... mass starvation ... war ...”
The following graph depicts possible alternative scenarios for humanity (as described above) as oil goes into decline over the next few decades.
Plotting Corporate Futures: Biotechnology Examines What Could Go Wrong. Author: Barnaby J. Feder. New York Times Business/Financial Section. June 24, 1999.
As biotechnology becomes more widespread and debated as a global issue, Montsanto, a company oftentimes “demonized” by environmentalists, invited Jeremy Rifkin and 13 members of the World Business Council to lead a scenario planning session about the future landscape of biotechnology to the year 2030. Mr. Rifkin, an environmentalist, is known the world over for his illustrious statesmanship and environmental protests. To say the least, this scenario exercise caught Montsanto by surprise. It increased awareness of the vital importance of challenging assumptions. Can we, in 2002, make assumptions about public reactions to political surprises, potential industrial accidents, and social disruption in the future? In a normative sense, Montsanto’s scenario exercise presents a good example to other industries manufacturing product-lines with long-range impacts that may or may not affect the environment in a good way, such as, insect-resistant crops and blockbuster drugs.
Scenario One: Unheeded. “In the first scenario, none of the critics' warnings about health and environmental hazards prove warranted and biotechnology products gain widespread acceptance. It is not a happily-ever-after story for the companies, though, because success brings wide-ranging consequences and challenges. This scenario includes examples of the social and political impact of large numbers of people living past the age of 100. There are pressures to divert public spending and product development to the needs of the elderly. Some biotechnology products in this story become unprofitable because they become so widespread that they turn into low-margin commodities.”
Scenario Two: Chaos Theory. “Complex systems can be changed radically by tiny disruptions that have dramatic ripple effects. This story turns on an event such as publication of a small research report attributing an environmental setback to genetically engineered crops. This in turn kicks off a string of public reactions leading to drastic regulations that stifle many biotechnology applications. A Presidential candidate who is courting environmentalists is cast as the leader of the anti-biotech charge. One plot twist to this story : the perceived threat to the environment is the result of faulty research. The lesson for the industry: the same science that serves you so well today can trip you up in the hands of critics.”
Scenario Three: The Market Decides. “In the third story, which might be summarized as ''thanks but no thanks,'' consumers and financial markets decide that most biotechnology applications simply are not as appealing as the alternatives. Insurers balk at liability risks and investors flee the industry's meager returns. Agricultural biotechnology markets shrink as farmers and consumers embrace organic food. Biotechnology becomes a tool to improve breeding techniques rather than to move genes among different species. At the same time, health care companies conclude there is limited profit in engineering new drugs and in harvesting organs for transplants in humans from genetically engineered animals. Instead, they use their expertise to analyze people's vulnerability to certain diseases and then reap profits from advising people how to avoid getting sick.”
Scenarios for a Clean Future (CEF). Report commissioned by the US Department of Energy (DOE), 2001.
The Interlaboratory Working Group was commissioned by the DOE to examine the potential for public policies and programs to foster efficient and clean energy technology solutions. The introduction to this work communicates a number of energy and environmental challenges as humanity moves into the 21st century; among them: acid rain, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather. The CEF scenarios address energy and environmental concerns & issues for the next 20 years, then couples them with a well-surveyed analysis of current and future policy solutions. This highly quantitative study provides near-term issues to illustrate specific clean energy technology and policy opportunities.
Scenario One: “Advanced” & Scenario Two: “Moderate”: Both scenarios develop into highly quantitative charts, graphs, NAU forecasts for 2010 (for both scenarios ), as well as assessments of Btu, cost, demographics, consumption of domestic and imported crude oil and petroleum products; and, an additional set of NAU quantitative forcasts for 2020 . These forecasts are defined by fifty policy actions. The following 10 are the most important: In the Building Sector: efficiency standards for equipment, voluntary labeling, and deployment programs; For Industry in General: voluntary programs; voluntary agreements with individual industries and trade associations; In the Transportation Sector: voluntary fuel economy agreements with auto manufacturers; “pay-at-the-pump” auto insurance; For Electric Generators: renewable energy portfolio standards & production tax credits and electric industry restructuring.
The scenarios led to three key conclusions: 1) Smart public policy can significantly reduce carbon emissions; 2) Overall economic benefit of good policy matches cost; 3) CEF Scenarios show an abundance of good policy to consider on a local, state, regional, and national level.
Weathering the Debate Over Climate Change. Author: Peter Schwartz, Red Herring Magazine, January, 2002.
In this compelling article, Mr. Schwartz writes about what we know and what we don’t know about climate change. What we know is, that we are experiencing a period of climate change. What we don’t know is, “how fast it is changing? What are the dynamics of climate change? Where will it end up?” Humanity is on the threshold of understanding that climate change is indeed, the result of “human activity amplifying dynamics.” Mr. Schwartz reviews three theories of climate change and encourages scientists to watch climate change more carefully and to continue improving climate science and modeling. A profound book Mr. Schwartz references in this article, “The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future(Princeton University Press, 2000), quotes Dr. Alley, professor of geosciences : “Our ice core records show that huge shifts have happened in the climate – not over centuries or even decades, but over years.” Humanity needs to go beyond the threshold of understanding, and walk into the living room of more actionable study. This takes courage.
Scenario One: Gradual Warming: “We could experience a gradual warming of 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century. Such a change could be highly disruptive, especially to agriculture. The reduction of greenhouse gases proposed in the Kyoto protocol is far too modest to help change this scenario.”
Scenario Two: Modest Blip: “In this scenario, there is little cause for concern, because we are experiencing just a modest blip and will return to stability. But if it proves wrong, then trusting in it will prove catastrophic.”
Scenario Three: An Era: “Finally, the third scenario is an era of unstable climate extremes. We don't know when the climate will whipsaw, but human activity will likely produce change sooner and cause it to be more extreme. If this scenario is correct, then it may make sense to reduce our output of greenhouse gases much further and faster than the Kyoto protocols dictate.”
Game Changer. Author: Anders Hove, RAND Corporation (with the assistance of James Bartis, Richard Silberglitt and Helena Chum of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy.)
“Game Changers" is the title of a RAND study about the innovations
and technologies that could potentially drive discontinuous change on a
global scale. The technologies examined in this article focus on
those that could change the environmental landscape. These include
methane hydrates (a large source of energy that is currently untapped),
the prospect of a hydrogen-powered economy, and the regulation of contaminants
that are only now emerging as problems in our water supply. “Water
World”, written by Anders Hove, is a scenario to the year 2020.
Water World: Powering the Nation with Hydrogen: “Imagine a world
powered almost entirely by an infinitely abundant and totally clean fuel.
Hydrogen is just such a fuel: the most common element in the universe,
it can be made from water and used to generate ordinary electricity for
homes and cars. In such a world energy would come from an easily stored
and domestically produced fuel. Electric power and transportation would
be totally clean and entirely free of messy geopolitical problems. Peering
into the glass, we could see people using "cHars" -- run on powerful but
silent fuel cells -- as mobile power plants. Plugging the home into the
family car in the evening would offset the peak loads created by heating,
air conditioning, lighting, and recreation. At work, employees could receive
a bonus check every month for contributing power to the office park "grid."
Unlike fossil fuels used in today's cars and power plants, the only by-product
of hydrogen power would be pure water. With hydrogen the challenge
isn't finding a supply, but extracting the hydrogen cheaply and cleanly.”
("Yes, my friends," [said Cyrus Smith], "I believe that one day water will
be used as a fuel -- that the hydrogen and the oxygen which constitute
it, separately or simultaneously, will provide an inexhaustible source
of heat and light of an intensity unknown to petroleum. One day, instead
of being fired with coal, steamships and locomotives will be propelled
by these two compressed gases, which will burn in their engines with enormous
energy. Thus there is nothing to fear. As long as the earth is inhabited
it shall provide for the needs of its inhabitants, and they will never
want for light or heat... Water is the coal of the future." "That
I'd like to see," said the sailor. Jules Verne, The Mysterious
Island, 1874)
Scenarios for society and the environment in 2020. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
The Danish Environmental Protection Agency asked the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies to outline four scenarios for tomorrow’s society and environment. Each of the four scenarios presents its vision of how society and the environment will interact in 2020. The scenarios are outlined in a graph with two axes – a society axis and an environment axis, which together create the four scenarios. The two axes are produced from answers given in qualitative interviews with a number of key players in the environment area, including representatives from NGOs, industry and the authorities. The society axis illustrates actions in society. We may have a situation where environmental initiatives originate at the bottom of society or a situation where initiatives are primarily centralised. The other axis is aimed directly at the environment and environmental discussions. The axis illustrates a world where, at one extreme, environmental discussions are characterised by little or almost no will to create a sustainable society. Each of the following four scenarios paints its own picture of Denmark in the future.
Scenario 1. A world on the brink of environmental disaster. All danger signals have been ignored, and we must react immediately to save the world.
Scenario 2. A technologicalised world. Man lives in symbiosis with technology, and environmental problems are solved by means of technological innovations.
Scenario 3. The staged world. We live in a society of entertainment, and environmental questions must amuse us to catch our attention.
Scenario 4. A world at peace with nature. Danes have come to their senses. We have realised that we have caused excessive environmental impact over time and are now reacting accordingly.
Consumer Power. Author: by Joel Makower, edior of the “Green Business
Letter” and creator of GreenBiz.com, a nonprofit resource center on corporate
environmental responsibility.
Mr. Makower takes a look at how technology and economy growth have
impacted consumption, waste generation, and energy use patterns over the
last 50 years. This study takes a close look at consumer habits and
trends; as well as industrial trends that contribute to environmental responsibility.
Of course, there are the downsides – environmental work has only begun,
particulaly with the enhancements & effectivness of technologies and
educating the consumer. Three current trends are described as having
a significant impact on consumer decisions in the marketplace:
1) “Sustainable Consumption" Goes Mainstream - “Amid an age of
plenty -- at least in the U.S. and other industrialized nations -- there
is growing interest in the simple question about "How much is enough?"
This question is certainly not new, but more recently it has extended beyond
a small corps of alternative lifestylers to more mainstream folks. who,
for a variety of reasons, are beginning to question the linkages between
quantity of possessions and quality of life.”;
2) Looking Beyond Products to Companies - “The protests over the notion
of globalization in recent years are a pointed reminder of the growing
collision of environmental concerns with those of human rights, labor,
and community economic development -- the so-called triple bottom lines
of economic, environmental, and social sustainability. Activists -- and
a few enlightened business leaders -- are recognizing that companies increasingly
are being judged not just on how much economic value they add, but also
on how much environmental and social value they add -- or destroy.”
3) The Rising Power of NGOs: - This third trend reviews a scenario
written by World Resources Institute scientist Allen Hammond in his book,
Which World? This book explored three scenarios of possibilities
for how the global future may unfold. In the scenario, “Transformed
World” Hammond describes an explosion in the number and influence of nongovernmental
organizations, or NGOs. The NGO’s power, he said, comes from their “ability,
despite the bewildering number of causes they espouse, to form spontaneous
coalitions and to motivate and arouse public opinion.”
The concluding portion of Mr. Makower examines the “state” of Hammond’s
1998 scenario.
The State of a 1998 Scenario: “Transformed World”.
“ Whether "Transformed World" comes to pass remains to be seen, but the
transforming power of the NGOs already is evident. In recent years, coalitions
of activists increasingly have influenced how companies, politicians, and
the public think about issues ranging from child labor to sustainable forestry.
The world of NGOs -- which range from public-service and humanitarian-relief
agencies to local, national, and global activist organizations -- is growing.
For example, in 1948 there were 41 consultative groups formally associated
with the UN Economic and Social Council. Half a century later, there were
more than 1,500.
Why the growth? One contributing factor may be the near paralysis of
government institutions in addressing environmental and sustainability
issues. Another may be the recognition that there is a wealth of knowledge
and expertise outside of government and the private sector. Still another
is a sense that cooperation is needed to produce new technologies and policies.
Today's NGOs are more willing to engage companies in productive dialogues
and partnerships. They are better tuned to what makes companies tick, and
they know how to leverage meager resources to promote corporate change.
Consider, for example, the experiences of one well-known consumer-products
company that came under scrutiny by a group of "zero-waste" NGOs for failing
to live up to a commitment to use a significant percentage of recycled
material in its packaging. The NGOs placed the company on a list of targets
for a nationwide campus boycott. Most such boycotts have negligible effect
on company sales and profitability, and this boycott was no exception.
But the NGOs added a twist: College students also were urged to boycott
the company's recruiters when they visited campuses seeking to interview
potential job candidates.
That hurt. The company's top environmental manager received a call
from senior management, wanting to know how the company got into this mess
-- and how it could get out of it. In an economy in which a company's ability
to attract and retain talent has become a source of competitive advantage,
the recruitment boycott cut to this company's core business strategy.
NGOs' roles can cut both ways. As P.J. Simmons writes in "Learning to Live
with NGOs": "Embracing a bewildering array of beliefs, interests, and agendas,
they have the potential to do as much harm as good. Hailed as the exemplars
of grassroots democracy in action, many NGOs are, in fact, decidedly undemocratic
and unaccountable to the people they claim to represent. Dedicated to promoting
more openness and participation in decisionmaking, they can instead lapse
into old-fashioned interest group politics that produces gridlock on a
global scale."
All signs indicate that NGOs' power will not wane any time soon. During
the 1990s, NGOs rose to become almost de facto governments, often wielding
more clout than elected officials in engendering change in the corporate
sector. Emboldened by their fight against globalization and empowered by
the Internet, NGOs increasingly will band together to fight industrial
pollution, push a sustainability agenda, and encourage consumer participation.
But NGO activity won't all be anti-business: Many groups will promote firms
they see as proactive and responsible, create buyers' groups to support
emerging technologies, and even launch for-profit ventures to jump-start
promising products and services. All of which will create opportunities
for companies and consumers to engage in new and productive dialogues.”
The Future of Consumer Power Mr. Makower summarizes his final conclusions with a summary chapter, The Future of Consumer Power. “Where green consumerism goes from here will depend a great deal on the ability to unite companies and consumers. The problems described above -- the lack of public understanding of the relationship between purchases and environmental impacts, the timidity of companies to make environmentally bold statements, and the need for businesses to vastly increase their communication with consumers on environmental topics -- can only be solved by a kind of shared vision between producers and their customers. In the end, the future will hinge on everyone's ability to improve environmental literacy at all levels, from elementary school to the marketplace. The challenge will be to communicate in a fair, balanced, and accurate way the impact of everyday purchases on the environment in a way that will empower, not alienate, consumers. Without such empowerment, the majority of consumers will be doomed to a frustrating and cynical assumption that there is little they can do and it is up to others to solve the planet's woes. The environmental and social marketplace is a dynamic, living entity, and today's marketplaces appear more dynamic than ever. The turn of the century has seen the birth and maturing of new environmental and sustainability issues around which consumers are increasingly being heard. The growing furor over genetically modified organisms, for example, whose marketing often promotes their environmental benefits, points up the double-edge sword of environmental technologies in the era of the triple bottom line: They must do more than merely reduce pollution; they must also improve people's lives. Energy deregulation and the advent of so-called "green power" is another area rife with opportunities for consumers to vote with their dollars. The growing activism against sprawl -- and all of the congestion, pollution, and loss of green space that comes with it -- may represent yet another area in which companies will come under consumer and activist scrutiny. On the horizon loom other, increasingly sophisticated, information-based technologies, such as robotics, genetics, and nanotechnology. All three bring the promise of dramatic new breakthroughs in food, medicine, communications, and other commodities needed for a sustainable world -- as well as the potential to wreak havoc on social structure and natural ecosystems. In the coming years, as these technologies' capabilities become commercialized at breakneck speed, the power of consumers in the marketplace will undoubtedly play a role in whether and how these products succeed -- and their impact on the environmental and social landscape.”
The Sheldon Scenarios. A collaboration created for the Architectural Program for the Urban Institute for Contemporary Arts, Grand Rapids, Michigan, 2002.
The leadership of the Contemporary Arts Architectural Working Group
asked a very significant question: What form will the arts take in the
future? The arts, not unlike the global economy, have highly uncertain
elements. Yet, there are predetermined notions that the arts will
continue “as is” - mostly derived from global trends - particularly
historic triggers in Europe. (A stone already knows what it will
be before it is carved? [Michelangelo].) Can the arts be predetermined?
Architecture is among the arts. What is the future of the building?
(*There is an excellent book by Stewart Brand, “How Buildings Learn”.)
The Architectural Working Group acknowledged that these challenges are
all dynamic in nature and therefore, it was decided that scenario planning
would help the Working Group to envision future changes in architecture
to optimise solutions and opportunities. Key questions asked
among the Working Group:
1) “What is the future of cultural institutions?
2) “What is the future of the relationships between economy and culture?
3) “How can form serve to support the building of community through
experience?
4) “What will the dynamic be between new media and technology and the
arts and culture?
5) “How does an organization plan through a structure to support
innovative thought and creative action toward the development of a vital
cultural community?” Four scenarios for each of five elements
were developed. The five elements: External Environment, Structuring, Sustaining,
Experiencing, and Movements. Each element contained a set of four
distinct scenarios. In sum, this study developed a total of 20 scenarios
of the future of architecture. Here is a sampling of four (out of
the 20), representing the “External Environment”.
“External Environment” Scenario One: Institute Showcase. “The economy is stable and subtly stratified. The work environment is steady and stratified into 25% information and management workers, and 70% in service and some manufacturing. Income difference between these groups is significant. Downtown development in both residential and commercial areas progresses. Development spreading out from the Arena finally reaches Sheldon. Country retreats and the nostalgia of small towns are popular escapes. New technology blossomed, then was quickly overrun by commercial interests and trash. Currently, internet techies still progress the technology, but it never took off for broad community and democratic discourse. People seek cultural experiences that reinforce and develop their interests. Meaning is found in exposure to new forms and ideas. People value their personal objects. People associate mostly with other individuals of similar economic, religious, and cultural backgrounds.”
“External Enviornment” Scenario Two: Urban Community. “Businesses work to maximize profit by targeting upper income groups, government, and other businesses resulting in extreme economic stratification. Manufacturing moves offshore and value of commercial property plummets as economy is based on financial paper and information. Work is scarce for 40% of the eligible population. The government gives credit for volunteering in community service organizations. UICA qualifies as a site for these credits. Downtown becomes deserted as financial power centers move to Ada, Cascade, and Holland. Regional and local planning bodies are controlled largely by corporate politics. New technology has grown under the control of big commercial media companies. However, access is expensive, putting it out of the reach of 70% of the population. Microsoft Network is the ultimate because it is seamless, organized, and composed. People seek cultural experiences through which one gains a sense of place in community through material interaction with form. Meaning is made by focused engagement with material. There is a reverence for hand-made objects: crafts, weaving, pottery, and gardening are popular. People value family keepsakes. People associate within groups of similar social, religious and political beliefs. Radical political groups thrive.”
“External Environment” Scenario Three: Contemporary Bazaar.
“Businesses work to maximize profit by creating many targeted micromarkets.
Success in this approach hinges on effective prediction and control of
consumers' interests. Choice is high and costs are low. The economy is
fast and diversified. The world of work is process-oriented and individualized.
People organize in professional firms and trade groups which facilitate
protocol between trades and distribute projects to its members. Zoning
quickly responds to the market. Both the city and the suburbs experience
continuous and quick redevelopment, with shifting phases of growth and
deterioration. New media is the focal point of culture and commerce. People
seek cultural experiences that refine individual interests. Meaning is
found by developing one's interests through refinement of technical understanding.
People value personal tools and technologies. People associate mostly with
other individuals of similar professional and recreational interests. Many
relationships begin on the internet. There is a strong resurgence of cultural
uniformity.”
“External Enviornment” Scenario Four: Art Expo. “The economy is diversified, with quickly changing markets. The work environment is organized by projects. People work based on independent contracts and form crossdisciplinary relationships, teaming up for specific projects. Consequently income, activity, and schedules are erratic. Neighborhood centers grow and diversify, including downtown, with a mix of commercial and residential. Small town and rural locations are popular options for homes and businesses. New media has become ubiquitous: small, wireless, inexpensive and commonplace. People seek cultural experiences in which new connections among people are formed. Meaning is made through progressive cyclical shifting from experiencing form to engaging in discourse. People value new policy. People associate in ever-changing and overlapping networks of contacts centered on projects, events, and activities.”
A Whole Earth View of the Global Environment and Environmental Movement. Peter Warshall, Whole Earth
Peter Warshall discusses the "briefest history of the environmental movement ever written," accompanied by a compelling future vision for the environmental movement - a staple for environmental scenarios and a lesson for business to learn. As Warshall puts it, "Environmentalism" has transformed government, business, religious, and citizen organizations throughout the planet. This is the story, much condensed...[taking into account]...Industrial ecology, conservation biology, ecological economics, environmental health, environmental justice, green plans, natural resources management, landscape ecology, and international environmental law; ... thousands of citizen groups, government bureaucrats, consultants, teachers, and corporate departments concerned with environmental matters. This author firmly believes that the environmental movement strengthened both the democracy movements, especially in former communist nations, and "side agreements" on labor and health in international trade pacts. Lifeboat Earth: The environmental movement to the present changed the world - “ burning down walls between disciplines formerly considered separate (e.g., ecology and economics, transportation infrastructure and fisheries); reviving the British idea of "commons,” but transforming it into an enriched sense of one kind of common embedded into another: local commons embedded in a network of many-places-commons; a many-places-network inside a global commons, and all of it under the umbrella of the human mythic/moral commons. This expansive view of common grounds has followed the increasing worldwide acceptance of the planet as a metaphorical "lifeboat"... the image of Earth afloat in an inhospitable universe revives pride and care for the biosphere.” For any scenarist or futurist contemplating scenarios for business, governance, international, or local, some serious questions must be considered: Will in 2010 or 2020 "this ecological and moral view persuade enough citizens, and take hold in time to prevent serious local and global disasters?" In all likelihood, according to Warshall, the future holds one of many, but still, a startling vision: the environmental movement, especially since the 1960s, being visited and revisited so that the vision continually "revision(s) the planet and keep the boat afloat."
World Energy Outlook 2000. International Energy Agency (IEA)
According to the OECD, "The International Energy Agency’s World Energy
Outlook has become the authoritative source for medium-term projections
of the world’s energy future." This report presents probable developments
from now to the year 2020. Most importantly, the projected "reference scenario”
takes into account those greenhouse gas policies that have been adopted
since 1997 and are now in place in OECD countries. Along with solid
global statistics, this report offers a selection of "alternative cases",
which trace what could happen if additional measures were taken.
Reference Scenario of the WEO 2000: “This scenario is dynamic,
expanding and rapidly changing. It assumes that the world economy will
grow by 3% a year, that fossil fuel prices remain flat till 2010, then
rise to $28 in today's money by 2020. In that event, overall energy demand
will grow by 57 percent over twenty years, just slightly below the rate
in recent years. CO2 emissions will swell by 60% or 2.1% annually - one-third
from power generation. Fossil fuels - coal, oil and natural gas -
will continue to provide 90% of the world's primary energy, although gas
will displace coal in some regions. Petroleum will remain the dominant
fuel, meeting 40% of world energy needs. Oil use will surge from 76 million
barrels a day now to 115 mb/d in 2020. Nuclear power output will remain
constant in absolute terms, but decline as a proportion of total energy
supply as older nuclear reactors in Europe and North America are retired.
New renewable energy sources will increase rapidly, from 2% to 3% of total
demand. " In addition to the reference scenario, there are
two alternative growth scenarios for both high growth and low growth, with
a different set of assumptions made about the range of possible economic
growth rates among industrial, transitional, EE/FSU, and developing economies.
For the high growth, one percentage point is added; for low growth one
percentage point is subtracted, using the reference case as the median.
NOTE: Another way to examine the uncertainty associated with the IEO2000
projections is to compare them with those derived by other forecasters.
Four organizations provide forecasts comparable to those in IEO2000.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual”
projections out to the year 2020 in its World Energy Outlook 2000.
Standard & Poor’s Platt’s (S&P) also provides energy forecasts
by fuel to 2020 in its World Energy Service: World Outlook 1999. Petroleum
Economics, Ltd. (PEL) and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA)
publish world energy forecasts, but only to the years 2015 and 2010, respectively.
For this comparison, 1997 is used as the base year for all the forecasts.
Powerful Sunshine vs Deadly Meltdown - What Can We Leave For The Growing Generations In The 21st Century? Kazuo Mizuta, Millennium Project.
The author very boldly and plausibly challenges the report, “Energy Prospects to the year 2010 - Energy and its Consumption", filed by the Department of Natural Resources and Energy, Japan Ministry of International Trade and Industry. Mizuta makes a clear case that some of rather 'radical" scenarios on energy futures for Japan are based on assumptions that don't take into account the reality of finity: fossil fuels run out. The energy "face saving" alternative of nuclear power is dangerous. By technical definition, power plants live short lives and there are too many that meet only minimal safety standards. Meltdown can bring devastation. Moreover, decommissioning processes are risky, and, as Mitzuka reminds the reader, "More than 300 facilities around the world will have to be decommissioned by 2010," which creates the problem of what to do with the hazardous waste?
Another energy alternative is infinity: solar energy. Mizuta discusses another scenario by the same Ministry, in which solar energy is acknowledged, and has in fact, attracted some attention. The possibilities of solar energy in terms of cleanliness, abundance, and security are better. Science is proving that solar transition rates from the "old" energy production to "new" is reasonable if applied with genuine effort. Harnessing solar energy is a matter of harnessing two simple things: heat & light. The author adds a fundamental scenario of solar energy in the year 2010, written on a personal level, that "strike at the heart" of the average household: Scenario 2010: On the Sunny Side: One day in the year 2010, I go downstairs as soon as I get up and check the number on the meter of our household solar light electricity generator. Our household system of solar power has been producing more than an adequate electricity supply for our daily life. We can now sell stored electricity to a commercial power dealer. Communities operate their greenhouses where they grow vegetables and flowers; public buildings are also equipped with solar panels to produce enough electricity for heating and cooling. And a great number of firms of various kind use electricity provided by the sunlight to manufacture products. Since we produce electricity at home, we have grown more conscious of conserving energy, and the Internet is available at a minimum cost for 24 hours, our sons and daughters have changed their life-style, from a mid-morning-to-midnight-life-style to a sunrise-to-sunset-life. With the development of the information network, they don’t have to be at the office at nine o'clock in the morning everyday. So they have more time to spend with their family. The cars they drive are also run by electricity. The air is cleaner and the sky is brighter. But alas, [if we go back in our imaginations back to 2001] at the moment we have to lead our lives in the more than ever deteriorating city environment.
2050: A Scenario for People and Forests. Jan Laarman, Journal of Forestry 2/01/00.
In this trip into the future, a professor of history interviews two
retired foresters in the year 2050. They tell how events and trends during
the preceding 50 years have transformed forestry and the professionals
who practice it. 2050: A scenario for people and forests: “Professor
Knowgood: Based on what I learned earlier about the two of you, it seems
you were surprised by your career paths, and by the changes that overtook
you along the way. Can you begin to describe that for me?
Margaret Sylva: Well, Richard, when I look back to what
I thought I knew in the late 1990s, I have to admit that I was not prepared
for the decades that followed. You might say that I was a "babe in the
woods." I really had no idea of the twists and turns that we foresters
would encounter down the road.
David Woods: That's also true for me. I never cease to
be amazed by where I started in forestry in the 1990s, and everything that
happened after that. The signs and symptoms of a different future
were all around us, but in many ways we failed to act on-or even to believe-what
we were seeing.
Knowgood: David, will you elaborate on that?
Woods: To start with, I remember that foresters back then
were wrangling about whether timber production was the dominant purpose
of the forest and the profession. Foresters were locked into ideological
positions, and they wasted a lot of time and energy over them. Thank goodness
that squabble has nearly ended.
Knowgood: What caused this change?
Woods: Today, virtually all wood production is agribusiness.
It is plantation tree growing-high-tech, neat and clean. On the other hand,
virtually all public lands in this country are managed for recreation,
water, and wildlife. There is almost no tree cutting on these lands. In
effect, we separated the commodity business from the aesthetics. We divided
the land and the profession into two distinct sectors, which defused the
old arguments about timber getting in the way of other things we want from
forests. But it did not happen because of planning and design. No, it happened
because of social and political forces,
and economics.
Knowgood: What kinds of social and political forces?
Woods: Even before the new century began, the influential
people of this country wanted forests for wildlife, recreation, and water.
And the leaders of our government agencies agreed with them. When I was
a university student in the 1990s, the Forest Service and Bureau of Land
Management were hiring fewer traditional foresters than in the past, and
they were recruiting more biologists, hydrologists, recreation managers,
and so on. I suppose that pattern was replicated at state and local levels.
Sylva: From what I remember, I accept David's observation.
The traditional foresters were up in arms, but there was little they could
do because of their shrinking numbers. The rank-and-file foresters slowly
but surely became a minority element. And as I recall, by about 2020 the
extreme, "timber beast" forester was an extinct species, at least on the
public lands.” See article for continuation of the scenario.
Discovering Sustainability: A Case Study of Learning through Environmental Scenarios. Lars Strannegard, Greener Management International, Autumn 98 Issue 23, p 53, 15p.
Describes how actors within the appliance group Electrolux conducted
a change program aimed to introduce business-driven views of environmental
issues. Process toward sustainability; features of Electrolux's change
process; details on the Environmental Change Programme (ECP); aim of the
ECP; scenarios that were agreed and on which the ECP based; conclusion.
Scenario 1: Summertime - This scenario describes the environmental situation
in 2005. A series of 'natural' disasters has led to a worldwide consensus
that global warming is a significant problem and that it is induced by
anthropogenic emissions. In 1999 severe storms hit the east coast of the
United States, destroying several tall buildings and bridges costing millions
of dollars. Dramatic weather changes, evidenced by floods and droughts,
and increased skin cancer as a result of ozone depletion have now proved
conclusively--along with the use of simulation tools--that human use of
fossil fuel is the cause of global warming. This problem has led policy-makers
to triple the price of electricity, enforce a compulsory 'energy content'
label on products, and introduce ration books for electricity purchases.
To encourage counter-behaviour, governments are presenting examples of
'good citizenship', such as a bus driver holding a bottle of ethanol to
indicate the amount of energy she saved during her shift, as she was able
to drive without braking even once.
People are buying local products with a small energy content
as a result of short transportation distances; they share cars, and use
public transport. Greenpeace is focusing on companies that are nonenergy-efficient
in production or that sell products requiring large amounts of energy to
manufacture. Managers travel less and use video conferencing; companies
mostly favour railway distribution, and the key to success is to be as
energy-efficient as possible.” Scenario 2. Cocktail: “In the
Cocktail scenario, the year is also 2005 and chemical and toxic substances
are the issues in focus. The problems are local and the situation is chaotic.
Companies are being attacked by militant environmental organizations such
as the Green Army Faction. Findings on estrogen-like substances that affect
organisms' reproductive capacity and birth defects caused by toxic substances
have made the public suspicious and frightened. The mixture of two or more
substances from landfills, industrial sites or incineration emissions could
cause toxic 'cocktails' with unknown effects. Governments throughout the
world are unable to keep pace with the new findings, and market demands
drive companies to change. The percentage of people suffering from allergies
has increased vastly; computer game manufacturers are sued by consumer
organizations and parents, charged with causing electromagnetic allergies.
People avoid all substances that are thought to trigger intolerance, and
risk avoidance in general is high. There is information fatigue regarding
new threats, and therefore a trend towards the use of traditional materials:
natural fibres, wood, metals and mono-materials are chosen in favour of
synthetics, plastics and composites. The precautionary principle, i.e.
staying away from everything that is perceived to be harmful to personal
health or the environment, is heavily practiced. Companies try to manage
the credibility issue through environmental certification, environmental
indicators, labeling, etc. in their marketing. Crucial factors for business
success are constant vigilance in identifying environmental problems within
the organization and finding credible ways of communicating with different
actors.” Scenario 3: Evergreen: “In the Evergreen scenario,
the volume of waste is the number one problem facing society in the year
2005. This scenario imagines a more positive development. Extended producer
responsibility is enforced by law, virgin materials have vastly increased
in price, and legislators, to a great extent, leave industry to design
their own systems to close value chains. Ash from incineration plants has
been proven to be poisonous and special landfills have had to be constructed.
Eighty per cent of the population thinks it is necessary to take 'extreme
measures' to reduce virgin material use and waste. There is a near-consensus
that effective recycling schemes can be developed, mostly due to new technology
that allows the effective recycling of used plastics.
Landfill costs have increased dramatically: the cost of disposing
a kilogram of waste has, in Sweden, increased from SEK2 per kilo to SEK
30. Products are being designed for disassembly; retailers offer take-back
systems; and material content labels give information about the products.
A majority of consumers are willing to buy second-hand appliances if they
get a one-year guarantee on functionality. There is 'nostalgia' value in
old cars and appliances, and it is politically incorrect to throw away
consumer durables.”
What Would a Green Future Look Like? Charles P. Alexander, Time Canada; 11/08/99, Vol. 154 Issue 19, p80, 2p, 1c. Twenty-first century -- Forecasts; MAN -- Influence of environment.
Predicts lifestyle in the 21st century. Description of the work and transportation environment; food; shopping. See original article on Web for an interactive view of each aspect of this scenario –www. time.com. What Would a Green Future Look Like? “By the year 2025 society will no longer tolerate the scourges of 20th century suburban life: the marathon commutes, the maddening traffic jams, the pollution spewing from tailpipes and chimneys. Society will demand neighborhoods where the air is pristine and places to work, shop and play are close at hand. In work and transportation, lots of us will work in our houses or apartments, telecommuting with our computers. Others will make a short hop to a nearby office park. Those who have to go downtown will prefer swift mass transit. Cars and trucks will still be used, but they will run on clean, hydrogen-powered fuel cells. To keep in shape and save money, people will spend more time on bicycles. In the area of food, people will likely favor fruits, grains and vegetables grown close to home, either in our backyard gardens or on nearby organic farms. It won't take much energy to get the fresh produce to local markets. Since the farms will employ natural forms of pest control rather than potentially toxic chemicals, there will be much less of a buildup of suspected carcinogens in the food supply. Shopping - even in an era of online marketing, there may still be a mall, but it will be relatively small and easy to get to, with sidewalks and bike racks instead of a mammoth parking lot. An airy place where a flood of natural light will cut down on energy use, the mall will be a two-way operation: when consumers are through using any product bought, the stores will be required to take it back for recycling. Energy - power will come from sources cleaner than fossil fuels. Some energy will flow from modern-day windmills, but much of it will be generated in our own homes. Rooftop solar panels will supply electricity to appliances and to a basement fuel cell, which will produce hydrogen. When the sun is not shining, the cell will operate in reverse, using the hydrogen to make electricity. Waste - sewage piped into enclosed marshes where selected plants, fish, snails and microbes will purify the wastewater before it enters streams and reservoirs.” See article for more details.
Sustainable Farming, Possibilities 1999-2020: A Discussion Paper. Science Council of Canada, 1991.
This discussion paper offers a series of scenarios that depict various
paths to sustainable agriculture. Each scenario was evaluated by international
experts for the logic, economic feasibility, and timetable of the described
transitions. Two scenarios depict a fairly surprise-free future based on
existing trends, and the remainder present scenarios that could arise from
the fracture of existing trends, or discontinuous change. To order this
report contact NTIS by: phone at 1-800-553-NTIS (U.S. customers); (703)
605-6000 (other countries); fax at (703) 321-8547; and email at orders@ntis.fedworld.gov.
NTIS is located at 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA, 22161, USA.
Top of the Page
Can We Make Garbage Disappear? Barry Michael, Time Magazine, November 1999, Special Issue. Visions of the 21st Century.
An emerging field of smarter technologies that use one industry’s waste as raw material for another, coupled with the emerging field of nanotechnology brings a world of non-waste. Making Garbage Disappear: According to the vision of Gary Liss of Loomis, California, a veteran of recycling and solid-waste programs who advises clients aiming to reduce landfill deposits, his vision is to see humanity emulating nature’s garbage-free ways. The drivers are innovative technology and a big change in society’s attitude. Kalundborg, Denmark is the prototype of more wide spreading “eco-industrial parks” designed for recycling and resource sharing. Within the park, for example, a power company, a pharmaceuticals firm, a wallboard producer and an oil refinery share in the production and use of steam, gas and colling water. Excess heat warms nearby homes and agricultural greenhouses. “One company’s waste becomes another’s resource.” The power plant, for example, sells the sulfur dioxide it scrubs from its smokestacks to the Wallboard Company, which uses the compound as a raw material. Biotechnology turns waste into an advantage - microbes that take toxic substances in contaminated soil or sludge and convert them into harmless by-products. Genetic engineering creates “designer waste streams.” Recycling gains momentum, as materials become easier to reuse. New types of foamed glass that can be made unusually strong and still lightweight. Society increasingly puts less value on things that use lots of materials – like three cars in the family driveway—and more on things that don’t swallow up resources – like telecommuting and surfing the Internet. Downloading collections of music from the web will reduce the demand for CD cases. And while visions of a “paperless office” have proved wildly wrong so far, the future holds an opportunity to use computers to cut consumption of paper and the trees it comes from. The attitude that, ‘one person’s garbage is another’s treasure’ goes global - human beings of the third millennium look back on their former garbage-producing ways as a forgivable error of their youth as a species.
Will we Still Eat Meat? Ed Ayers, Time Magazine. November, 1999. Special Issue on the 21st Century.
Article outlines how man ‘awakens’ to the what unnecessary mass production of animal flesh is doing to health – and the planet’s. Forsees a huge global shift in food habits from one in which the developing world today consumes more meat in rising out of poverty to realizing the environmental and social costs of this habit. Imagining the future of meat : “The developing world leads the charge in conserving freshwater and other scarce resources through production of creative meat-less foods indigenous to cultures. India, China, North Africa, and the US continue to run freshwater deficits, and are, for that reason, at the forefront of new policies of sustainability. Protein sources supplement with a wide variety of vegetables in the average diet. Mankind begins to move down the food chain; eating foods that take less water and land, and that pollute far less, than cows and pigs do. In the long run, some theorists believe, society can lose it’s memory of eating animals and discover the intrinsic satisfactions of a diverse plant-based diet, as millions of people already have. However, this world doesn’t spell the end of meat eating. Decades from now, cattle will still be raised, perhaps in patches of natural rangeland, for people inclined to eat and able to afford a porterhouse, while others will make exceptions in ceremonial meals on special days like Thanksgiving, which link us ritually to our evolutionary and cultural past. But the era of mass-produced animal flesh, and its unsustainable costs to human and environmental health, is forecast by the authors to be over before the next century is out.”
Meeting the Challenges: Natural Resources and Environmental Scenarios. Chris Fay, chairman and chief executive, Royal Dutch Shell . Given in an address to the Foresight Sustainable Technologies for a Cleaner World Conference, May 19, 1998.
Royal Dutch Shell scenarios given by speech to Natural Resources and Environment Foresight Panel comprised of Shell and government Technology Foresight Program. Government’s aim is that of encouraging long-term planning and helping British industry to capitalize on new markets and technologies over the next twenty years. Building a sustainable future will require a partnership, shared expertise and experience. It will be a challenge among government, industry, academia, NGOs and consumers. Two long-term energy scenarios which are helping to drive important research and development and which are pointing to new business opportunities for the future. " We believe that technological advance is essential both for continued economic growth and for developing new and more successful approaches to environmental management. Our faith in good science remains undented. We agree with the Government’s Panel on Sustainable Development that "in future we shall be more rather than less dependent on technology for our society to be sustainable." Chris Fay Scenario 1. Sustained Growth: "This scenario suggests that global energy demand will continue to grow at its current rate of about 2 per cent a year. Under this scenario, the world’s energy supply will see a continuing trend from high to low carbon fuels, from coal to oil and gas, and to renewables. In other words, continued decarbonisation. Over the medium-term, Shell believes that renewables will at last begin to compete in terms of price, availability and convenience. The ‘Sustained Growth’ scenario indicates that renewables may have about 5-10 per cent of the energy market by 2020. This process accelerates after 2020, as continuing innovation lowers renewable costs, and depleting reserves lead inevitably to higher prices for oil and gas..." Scenario 2. Dematerialisation: "Under this scenario the world experiences far more radical changes in energy consumption. Improved energy efficiency and the more widespread use of new information technologies, particularly in the developing world, suggests that the world’s increased energy needs will be met with fewer materials and less energy. Overall, demand for energy rises more slowly because human needs are met through technologies which require lower energy input. It’s easy to see how this scenario could be used to encourage practical solutions to today’s sustainable development challenges. For example, in road transport, the widespread use of "cleaner" vehicles is not going to come about overnight. No-one, least of all, individual companies can wave a magic wand and solve Britain’s air quality problem just like that. But it is possible to envisage a convergence of complementary developments in politics, business and wider society. Government action, the development of new technologies and lighter materials in car manufacturing, and the widespread availability of alternative fuels could all come together. According to this scenario, "new generation vehicles" three times more fuel efficient than today’s vehicles, could become commonplace…"
Five Complex Forces Could Change Structure of Industry. Roland Kjell, The Oil and Gas Journal, April 13, 1998.
Projections about the future of energy fall into Conventional or Environmental (Green) categories. Although the issue of global warming dominates the Green projections, there are other forces in addition to the environment that are capable of undermining the current structure of the energy industry. Expectations for the coming decade: Much effort has been devoted to looking at the future of energy, particularly for oil. Despite an impressive amount of sophisticated computer methodologies, the reputation of energy forecasting has been in decline. Long term trends in energy consumption display some remarkable resilience in the underlying structures that determine energy growth. The dramatic rise and fall of oil prices over the last few decades were more than blips in the curves, but they hardly caused fundamental changes to the relationship between economic activity and energy use. The role of oil relative to other energy sources has not changed in any permanent and fundamental way. However, climate policy may eventually call for a change in historical trends, and this is currently reflected in forecasts of energy futures. Roland Kjell To illustrate this, Kjell collected energy scenarios from a number of respected and well known institutions involved in the analysis of future energy developments and divided them into two basic scenario camps: "Green Scenarios" and "Conventional Futures". The fundamental difference between Green Scenarios and Conventional Futures is 2022 mtoe in 2020. Scenario-set 1. Green Scenarios: "Exit fossil fuels? Many seem to believe that the oil age will soon be over. Green Scenarios show lower overall growth in energy consumption, albeit not drastically lower. The basic fuel mix remains generally the same. In the Green Scenarios , global oil consumption grows by 0.5% per annum from 3,180 mtoe in 1990 to 3,714 mtoe in 2020. At the end of the forecasting period, oil demand approaches a plateau and further growth in developing countries is offset by a decline in consumption in industrialized countries. For gas, the situation appears to be even less dramatic. Global consumption grows by an annual rate of 1.5% to 2020. Gas is less vulnerable to environmental measures than oil and coal because a number of environmental policies may result in a change in the fuel mix in its favor. Green Scenarios contain vigorous environmental policy efforts, and as a result, stretch the imagination compared to what has been observed in energy/environmental policies. Still, they are less radical than many environmentalists would like to see, and less alarming than some industrialists fear…" Scenario set 2. Conventional Futures: "Starting with overall energy consumption, in most scenarios , energy consumption increases from 7,850 mtoe in 1990 to 12,550 mtoe in 2020, by 1.5%. annually. This compares with 1.0% per year to a total of 10,550 mtoe in Green Scenarios . Relative to historical trends, both projections are low. In the past 3 decades, global total primary energy (TPE) increased more than 2.5% annually (1965-1996 = 2.6%, 1970-1996 = 2.1%). The Conventional Futures energy growth of China (TEA, 1996a) is set at 4.2% per annum to 2010 based on a GDP growth rate of 7.8. Keeping the same energy intensity decline as in the International Energy Agency (TEA) forecast, an economic growth of 10.1% would imply an energy consumption level in 2010 of 1,800 mtoe, 23% higher than in the IEA forecast and 176% above the 1990 level. This illustrates that if China, and other developing countries for that matter, succeed in their striving for modernization and economic development, energy demand growth may turn out to be notably higher than most of the forecasts have shown in Conventional Futures…"
Global Environmental Scenarios 2000 - 2050. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), 1998. <www.wbcsd.com>
Sustainability is a topic of our age. In creating global environmental scenarios, the Council for Sustainable Development conducted extensive interviews worldwide. The Council started with the Brundland Commission’s definition of sustainable development: "Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable – to be sure it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." The Council’s explorations of sustainability identified these major components: economy and technology, ecology and demography, and governance and equity. These components are embedded in the prevailing myths – those deep premises on how the world works, which we take for granted. In industrial and trading societies, for example, the economic myth of self-interest dominates. WBCSD The Council built three scenarios to illustrate the number of plausible routes forward that pose challenges to business and industry. Scenario 1. Frog: "The world of FROG! is a familiar world - at least at first. Many nations experience a fair degree of economic success, and, for almost all, economic growth is the major concern, with sustainable development acknowledged to be important, but not pressing. As environmental NGOs continue to demand enforcement of standards that have been set in global summits, those nations who are striving to develop argue that if the developed nations insist on raising environmental standards, they should "First Raise Our Growth!" Indeed, in this scenario, some nations leapfrog from underdeveloped status to benchmarker in particular areas of technology. People in western nations respond in uneven ways—sometimes by offering help in improving the environment, and sometimes in raising various cries of "FROG!"…But, by 2050 there is evidence that the darkest predictions about global warming are actually nearer to the truth than the more optimistic ones..." Scenario 2. Geopolity: " Geopolity begins with a succession of signals in the first two decades—some real, some imagined – that an environmental and social crisis looms. The prevailing "economic myth" is increasingly viewed as dangerously narrow. This is particularly true in Asia, where rapid economic growth has meant that corners have been cut and traditions lost. Because many institutions, especially governments, have lost credibility as problem-solvers, people expect something from the new centres of power—multinationals. But the business sector seems unable or unwilling to respond adequately. …In the absence of leadership from business and government to solve problems, people form new global institutions such as the Global Ecosystem Organization (GEO), with broad powers to design and enforce global standards…" Scenario 3. Jazz: "In the world of Jazz, diverse players join in ad hoc alliances to solve social and environmental problems in the most pragmatic possible way. The key note of this scenario is dynamic reciprocity. This is a world of social and technological innovations, experimentation, rapid adaptation, much voluntary interconnectedness, and a powerful and ever-changing global market. What enables the quick learning and subsequent innovation in Jazz is high transparancy—the widespread availability of information about ingredients of products, sources of inputs, company financial, environmental, and social data, government decision-making processes, and almost anything else consumed with what consumers want to know. …Jazz is a world in which NGOs, governments, concerned consumers, and businesses act as partners—or fail..."
Victory Cities. Orville Simpson, author and inventor; <www.victorycities.com>, 1999
Present-day cities are already obsolete and are threatening to engulf the entire countryside. According to Orville Simpson, futurist in urban planning and renewal, Victory City ™ is the wave of the future. His vision is to build an entire city under one roof, to be built and operated by private enterprise alone. There will be not just one, but many such cities throughout the entire world. The scenario of Victory City is highly plausible and realistic as Simpson takes the reader through his website (www.victorycities.com) and introduces a utopia of no crime, no pollution, and no over-crowding. Future projections show tremendous advances in heating, venting, air conditioning, air purifying, and humidity control so that rooms will be pleasant, healthful, and comfortable. Victory Cities will create a higher standard of living for people, but will require less natural resources, money and energy to achieve it. A Scenario of Victory City: Among the extensive list of contents in the Resident’s Guide, the viewer of this site can click on any aspect of this futuristic city - from schools to safety and security, to postal systems. The money system, for example, is such that no money will be used. Instead, everyone will carry a bankbook that automatically debits purchases. Bills are deducted automatically. In the food system, the bulk of food will come from the city’s own farms in the surrounding countryside. Fresh foods are brought into the city, cooked, served, and eaten on the same day. Food is cooked in all-electric kitchens, brought to the cafeteria on high-speed elevators, and served on a Circle-Serve. From a nutritional standpoint, this will bolster the health and stamina of citizens, and contributes to the more favorable future evolution of man. Transportation connects all cars, trucks, busses, monorails, and railroads. Citizens can go from any one place to another, anywhere in the city, in only five to ten minutes and without hurrying. Cars are replaced by electric cars the size of wheelchairs within the city. Auto accidents are kept to a minimum, as automobiles are only used to travel between cities. The most unique feature of the scenario are the innovations applied to protecting the environment, e.g. 90% trash eliminated before it gets started (since apartments will have no kitchens); high-end recycling; no cemeteries; no emissions.
Sustainable Global Future: Scenario Building for the Twenty-First Century. United Nations University.
This research project constitutes a further development of UNU's work on global change and modeling. The objective is to generate information and apply analytical skills to formulate medium- and long-term strategies and policy alternatives for restructuring the global ecology-economic system for sustainable development. The UNU/IAS is providing a forum where existing modeling groups and scenarios analysts may discuss their studies and findings. The project is centered around database development, trend analyses, broad scenario building for the 21st century, and simulation studies evolving into plausible configurations of the future of natural and societal systems. Scenarios for future global development can be viewed as a tool for systems analysis to allow for a structured debate on global trends and on the opportunities for, and threats to, sustainable development. Global models and scenarios are, therefore, useful tools to support and facilitate national and international efforts to (re-)direct development towards a socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable future. In this context, scenario building offers a framework for debating key issues related sustainable development, at the global scale and taking into account different regional and sectoral perspectives and interests. This is an ongoing project that seriously takes into account the global modeling and global scenarios of developing countries as well as industrialized countries. The work will be published in a series of papers in which different groups around the world will develop, compare, and debate comprehensive future global scenarios. In doing so, the UNU/IAS adds its own perspective: "global sustainability and fairness in economic growth."
Global Energy Perspectives: A Summary of the Joint Study by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy Council. Arnulf Grubler, Michael Jefferson, and Nebojsa Nakicenovic. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 51, 237-264 (1996)
Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond was conducted jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC). Three cases of economic and energy developments were sprawled into six scenarios of energy supply until the end of the 21st century. Each of these six scenarios cover the energy system as a whole from resource extraction to the provision of energy services. The study purposely involved a long lead time - changes in the energy system that would become significant only after the year 2020. The internal consistency of the scenarios were assessed with the help of formal modeling that included world population prospects, economic growth, technological advance, the energy resource base, environmental implications from the local to the global level, financing requirements, and the future prospects of both fossil and nonfossil fuels and industries. Patterns that are robust across a purposely broad range of scenarios are identified. Three High Growth Scenarios: Three scenarios that assume high rates of economic growth and technological progress, a liberal international trading regime, and preference for markets rather than detailed regulation. Scenario A1.) Clean Fossils: " Favors neither coal nor nuclear, but as a result of technological changes sees the tapping of the cost potential of conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources. As a result, fossil fuel resources are sufficient to allow a smooth transition to alternative supply sources based on acceptable nuclear and new renewables, matched with high quality energy carriers in the form of electricity, liquids, gas and -- later--hydrogen. Coal is regarded as a relatively unattractive fossil fuel and continuously loses market share. Scenario A2.) Dirty Fossils: " For a variety of reasons, concerns about potential climate change wither away, and coal’s vast resources make it the fossil fuel of choice as conventional oil and gas resources dwindle. Local and regional sulfur and nitrogen emission are controlled through add-on technologies; however, challenges continue as coal is exploited at ever deeper and more remote locations, and conversion to synliquids is increasingly required." Scenario A3: Bio-Nue: "Large-scale renewables and a new generation of nuclear power lead to a technology-driven transition to a post-fossil fuel age. The transition parallels history as industrialized countries moved from fuelwood through coal to oil and natural gas. In this scenario, natural gas is the transitional fossil fuel of choice, supported by economically competitive oil resources. There is little pressure to exploit nonconventional oil resources or large columns of coal. By 2100, there is almost equal reliance on nuclear energy, natural gas, modern biomass, and a fourth category composed mostly of solar energy with smaller contributions from wind, geothermal, and a few ocean/tidal schemes. A Middle Course Scenario: "A single scenario with more modest assumptions about economic growth, technological development, removal of trade barriers, and satisfaction of the development aspirations of the South (more so than in Case A). Recent setbacks and slower economic restructuring than anticipated for the transitional economies, together with weak economic performance in sub-Saharan Africa and some other developing countries, are also reflected in the comparatively modest near-term economic growth assumptions of Case B. This case has the greatest reliance on fossil fuels of any scenario except the coal-intensive Scenario A2. Beyond 2020, the failure to match depleting fossil fuel resources with the necessary technological advances and exploration and production effort creates challenges for energy supply structures." Two Ecologically Driven Scenarios. These are the most ambitious by being highly optimistic about technology diffusion and geopolitical innovations to meet the challenges of the environment and international equity. "Substantial resource transfers from North to South recycle environmental taxes to spur growth in the South, enabling wide participation in international environmental agreements and policies to reduce emissions from energy supply and end use. Nuclear energy is at a crossroads illustrated by two scenarios." Scenario C1) Assumes nuclear energy is a transient technology that is phased out entirely in the long-term, leaving new renewable forms of energy to substitute for fossil fuels. Scenario C2) Assumes a new generation of small-scale nuclear reactors is developed which is, and is also perceived to be, inherently large."
Mending the Ozone Hole - Science, Technology, and Policy. Arjun Makhijani and Kevin R. Gurney. Cambridge, MA; MIT Press, August, 1995.
The potential for ozone depletion beyond what has already been ensured
by past releases of ozone-depleting compounds (ODC) is intimately tied
to the amount and pattern of future emissions. Because stratospheric ozone
depletion is exhibiting a nonlinear response to the present chlorine and
bromine burden in the atmosphere, any future emissions of chemical compounds
that would contribute to this problem must be minimized. This report examines
the potential magnitude and timing of future atmospheric chlorine and bromine
levels by constructing a model of ODC emissions under various control strategies.
The time domain of the model for which the three emissions scenarios are
based extends from 1985 - 2090. The scenarios are referred to as the Copenhagen
Amendments scenario, the Accelerated Phaseout scenario, and the Saving
Our Skins scenario. The primary differences among these ODC emission scenarios
concern regulatory issues such as: the phaseout schedule of ozone-depleting
compound production; consumption of the ODC production and consumption
phaseout schedule followed by Third World countries; the extent of future
HCFC production; the future control or elimination of emissions from ODC
banks; and the future control of methyl chloride and methyl bromide emissions
due to low-temperature biomass burning.
The highly detailed scenarios are global in scope, representing all
production and all emissions. The reader is encouraged to view the original
material, as it also presents a table comparing the three scenarios; each
scenario categorized by Industrialized countries and Third World. The table
then compares by global CFCs, Halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform,
HCFCs, Methyl bromide, and Methyl chloride.
After Man: A Zoology of the Future. Dougal Dixon, Published 1981. Evolutionary scenarios.
Contains an introduction by Desmond Morris, author of the "Naked Ape".
Dixon spends the first part of the book discussing important evolutionary
concepts including natural selection, radiation of many species from a
single species and convergent evolution of species in similar niches. He
includes a history of the earth to the present and then jumps to a time
50 million years into the future. Dougal includes the theory of plate tectonics
to show how the continents will be arranged in the future. He assumes that
human impact will cause a major extinction episode which might be already
happening. Dixon describes the human species dying off: "Man’s knowledge
grew, most significantly in the field of medical science. Accidents and
diseases that help to keep natural populations in check were overcome or
reduced in their effects by man’s endeavors. Genetic defects that, in the
wild, would have proved fatal and would have been eliminated by natural
selection were perpetuated because their possessors were allowed to live
and reproduce. World population increased exponentially and hardly a region
of the earth remained untouched by man." .... "The ultimate effect was
that, whereas other animals change and adapt through the slow process of
evolution to fit into their environment, man was able to change his environment
to suit his current needs, reaping a short-term advantage in the process.
Living outside evolution each stage of his rapid cultural development was
passed on to the next generation, not through his genes but by learning.
Although he avoided the unpleasant effects of natural selection, he also
did without its long-term benefits and in short called a halt to evolution
as it applied to himself. The result was a world overburdened by a population
of beings unable to survive without their own conscious intervention, a
world given over to the essential needs of man, a world poisoned by his
waste." With man’s extinction, "... the animal world entered a period of
evolutionary chaos that lasted tens of thousands of years. However, man’s
extinction provided the impetus for the formation of many animals and his
disappearance was of fundamental importance in shaping the world that has
emerged 50 million years later." Dougal then describes the species that
came to be in the various ecosystems of 50 million years into the future.
Many species disappeared in the age of man, such as whales and many large
predatory mammals. More adaptive mammals and birds filled in these niches
eventually. Rats and rabbits radiated into many species, including predators.
The whale niche was eventually assumed by krille-eating penguins 50 feet
long.
Quite a fun scenario. The language of Dougal dates him, and of course
he isn’t aware of the newer paradigms available to biologists today, such
as the preeminence of plants, fungus, insects, and especially bacteria.
Stuart Kauffman’s ideas coming from chaos and complexity theory and from
modern biochemistry are also available forcing Dougal to rely on natural
selection more than would be necessary today. Ideas like the Gaia hypothesis
were just showing up on the radar in 1981. Dougal does well in coming up
with a plausible scenario, which insists that the earth will be fine and
evolution will go on after man is gone. Of course, there is always hope
that we will become a species which is not dominated by men, but also includes
the wisdom of women and appreciates the connections to the rest of nature.
With that, maybe we could stay around a little longer. [Summary written
by James "Jim" Laurie, graduate of Futures Studies, University of Houston
Clear-Lake, Texas.]
Deep Design - Pathways to a Livable Future. David Wann with the Center for Resource Management. Island Press, Washington, DC., 1996.
"The industrial revolution was characterized by mechanical designs that
didn’t accommodate biology and human psychology; the post-industrial revolution
is characterized by designs that are more nature compatible and, like nature,
flexible enough to adapt to changing conditions. The best nature-compatible
new designs--whether they are products, buildings, technologies, or communities--are
sensitive to living systems with which they come into contact, accomplishing
their missions without undesirable side effects such as pollution, erosion,
congestion, and stress." Rather than being above nature, deep designs are
aligned with nature--water, the sun, our genetic heritage. Their strategies
often incorporate living systems, such as alternative wastewater treatment
in a greenhouse environment that’s designed to take advantage of lilies,
snails, and fish. These living machines, as John Todd calls them, are self-adjusting
and capable of improving their own performance. Rather than being "one-size
fits all", systems, living machines can be customized to meet a particular
need. Thus, they are a synthesis of nature and technology.
This book presents a best-case scenario: Diversity, Conservation, and
Caretaking. In the scenario, deep designers resist many of the industrial
guidelines of twentieth-century engineering. They know that if they follow
the specs as currently written, it will result in inefficiency, isolation,
planned obsolescence, lack of quality, environmental decay, and social
chaos. Deep designers believe it is well worth the effort to shoot for
something more inspired: that designs can be made reasonably fail-safe
if they incorporate diversity, flexibility, and biological compatibility,
eliminating the need for overengineering.
Certification of Forest Products: Issues and Perspectives. Edited by Virgilio M. Viana, Jamison Ervin, Richard A. Donovan, Chris Elliott, and Henry Gholz. Washington: Island Press. Oct. 1996.
Over the past 10 years, forest conservation has become an increasingly high-priority issue for policy makers and the general public throughout the world. Initial concern focused on tropical forests and the activities of the timber industry. In the mid-1980s, two international initiatives were launched to lessen the industry’s impact on tropical forests: the Tropical Forestry Action Program (TFAP) and the International Tropical Timber Organization (Iyyo). This book covers the concept of certification, key issues raised by certification, and a variety of perspectives - opinions from conservation NGOs, forestry professionals, community groups, businesses, certifiers, and regional, national, and government perspectives. Three scenarios for certification are explored: an optimistic, a pessimistic, and a catalytic one. Optimistic Scenario. "In this scenario, forest certification becomes part of mainstream forestry for major forest-producing regions of the world within the next 10 years. This scenario implies that certification becomes supported by major forestry institutions at the national and international levels. Certification would then become a part of regular protocols of forest management, and certified operations would receive governmental and intergovernmental support. This scenario would depend on negotiations and institutional linkages within and between key international players." Pessimistic Scenario. "Economic viability of certification schemes is vital for their credibility. There are indications that, although a significant part of the world markets has increasing environmental concerns, consumers are not willing to pay prices for certified products that are much higher than those of uncertified products. The costs of certification are now often being subsidized by various donors with the understanding that eventually certifiers and support institutions will be self-sustainable. If a time comes when certification is proven not to be economically viable either through higher prices or better market share for certified products, then it may collapse and become discredited." Catalytic Scenario. "Certification assumes an important role as a catalyst of change in the development of sustainable forestry. The development of criteria and indicators of sustainability at regional or national levels, as well as the development of guidelines for certification at the forest management unit level, is developing, and will continue to have profound influences. The participatory processes of consultation with multiple stakeholder groups from different geographical regions has also provided a new dimension in the global perspective of sustainable forestry."
The Climatic Effects of Nuclear War. Richard P. Turco, Owen B. Toon, Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan, Scientific American 251:2, August 1984, 33-43. Global scenario of a nuclear winter.
The long-term climatic effects of nuclear war are much more severe than had been supposed. The scenario of a nuclear winter is a world in which vast regions are subjected to prolonged darkness, abnormally low temperatures, violent windstorms, toxic smog, and persistent radioactive fallout. Under such circumstances, the extinction of many species, including humans, is possible.
Our Common Future. Faye Dunchin and Glenn-Marie Lange. Oxford University Press, 1994.
The Our Common Future scenarios and alternative scenarios were designed in relation to the Brundtland Report in 1987. These scenarios examine likely future changes in emissions of carbon dioxides and oxides of sulfer and oxides of nitrogen, thus focusing on the most energy-intensive sectors. In the latter part of the book, case studies were used to develop the scenarios. They rely mostly on technological changes in lowering pollution or climate change. Along with a global scenario, the book contains regional scenarios. In all scenarios, it is assumed that the levels of economic activity (as measured in GNP) will increase by 2.8% a year worldwide, that the relative price of petroleum will gradually rise above its level of the 1980s to $44 per barrel and by 2020, the population will increase from 5.l3 million in 1990 to 8.1 million in 2020, with 42.7% in 1990 to 57.5% in 2020 of urban population worldwide. Case studies cover the likely future changes in the use of energy in households, transportation, electricity generation, and industrial production, along with pollution control options.
Neptune’s Revenge: The Ocean of Tomorrow. Anne W. Simon (NYC). NY: Franklin Watts, Oct. 1984/222p. Environmental scenario in the 21st century.
The author describes mankind’s various uses of the ocean and how these uses have turned into abuse. A continuation of these trends would drastically affect the ocean of tomorrow. Some abuses cited by the author include overfishing and the dumping of sewage, radioactive waste, and toxic chemicals. A pessimistic scenario "Neptunes Revenge" describes a world in which the oceans have suffered irreversible damage in the 21st century, and are no longer able to support mankind. This is a scenario of survival of life on earth.
Global Climate Change: Linking Energy, Environment, Economy, and Equity. Edited by James C. White, NY: Plenum Press, 1992/242p. Energy scenarios to the 21st century.
Proceedings of the 8th annual conference of the Center for Environmental Information (Rochester NY), held December 1991 in Washington. This conference examined trends affecting climate change such as increasing greenhouse gases; warming generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes; and how differences in seasons can create trouble for urban water supplies. Conference papers include scenarios of multiple benefit environmental policies, local and regional policies, the role of markets in energy/environmental policy, and sectoral perspectives (government, electric utilities, auto industry, industry); other conference papers included scenarios of future energy consumption.
Principles for Electric Power Policy. Technology Futures, Inc. and Scientific Foresight Inc., Greenwood Press/Quorum Books, Oct 1984/448p. Six scenarios of electric power to the year 2014.
A National Science Foundation sponsored technology assessment on the future of electric power conducted within the context of six alternative sets of scenarios of the 30 year future of the U.S. Trends and assumptions driving the scenarios are: growing importance of electrical power; projections for long-term size and distribution of electrical power demand is increasingly uncertain; the type of practical power generation sources will increase dramatically; roles, structures, and procedures for electrical utilities will change significantly; electric power policy will find it increasingly difficult to find a balance between efficiency, equity, and risk. Scenario 1.) The Average Future: total energy demands and electrical power demands in particular will continue to grow. There will be a limited but increased role for nuclear power and a dominant role for coal-based generation. Scenario 2.) Nuclear Resurgence: high energy demand and increased acceptance of nuclear power, coupled with disenchantment with coal-based generation results in a resurgence of nuclear power generation. Scenario 3.) Mega-Plant: high demand, coupled with resistance to both nuclear and coal-based generation results in unconventional, high-capacity sources of electricity, such as solar power satellites. Scenario 4.) Small Coal Plants: high energy demand and moderate increase in oil prices slows the trend towards electrification. As a result, relatively small coal-based generators are preferred. Scenario 5.) Post-Industrial Economy: an economy dominated by services and high-technology manufacturing results in low demand for energy generally but a high demand for electricity. This demand is met by distributed electric power technologies such as solar cells. Scenario 6.) Economic Malaise: economic malaise results in low demand for both electricity and energy in general. Conventional coal-based generators supply the electric power that is needed.
Vision 2020: Reordering Chaos for Global Survival. Ervin Laszlo, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, March 1994/133p. World environmental scenario to 21st century.
This book provides an analysis of environmental trends. Laszlo projects
that human population will soon be at the edge of the planet’s carrying
capacity, masses of people will be poverty stricken, and food production
will decline. A normative scenario, "Vision 2020" shows a world in which
the environment is supportive of humanity. The author recommends that five
objectives be accomplished: restraining the power of the nation-state;
restraining the power of politicians by promoting direct democracy; concords
of cooperation in defense environmental protection; and development. The
"Vision 2020" scenario is a strategy to launch humanity on the path toward
a global "holarchy" where human beings co-evolve with their societies.
This calls for maintaining mastery over the complex and interdependent
world we have created.
Top of the Page
A 21st Century World Gas Scenario. Ove Sviden Futures, 18:5, Oct. 1986, 687-691. Three gas scenarios to 2010, 2040, and 2070.
This article represents a long range outlook on natural gas as a primary energy source and gas as an energy product. Scenario 1.) Scenario Scene 2010: "world population is 7 billion. Natural gas now represents 25% of world TPE. The gas supply pipelines span the continents and cross deep waters. Offshore exploration of natural gas takes place around most continents. The world is again experiencing flourishing growth. Demand for energy is growing by 2% per year. The search for petroleum resulted in a bigger growth for the natural gas reserves than for the oil reserves, but oil is still the dominant energy form with its 31% of world TPE." Scenario 2.) Scenario Scene 2040: " World population has increased to 9 billion. World energy demand has more than doubled since 1985. Natural gas is now the major fossil fuel used. The volume consumed is four times larger than in 1985. Its share of world TPE is 34%. Worldwide gas supply and distribution networks span the continents. Natural gas is recovered from subsea installations . Gas is considered to be the only environmentally acceptable form of carbon to be burned." Scenario 3.) Scenario Scene 2100: " World population has stabilized now at 12 billion. World energy demand is six times the amount consumed in 1985. This represented an average energy growth rate of 1.57% /year during the last 15 years. Over 40% of the energy is reserved for transportation usage. This means that 2.5 times the world total energy consumption in 1985 is now used in mobile power packs. The environmental specification for combustion is very strict indeed. The only sufficiently clean fuel is gas, i.e. hydrogen."
A Matter of Degrees: The Potential for Controlling the Greenhouse Effect. Irving M. Mintzer, Report #5. Washington: World Resources Institute, April 1987/60p. Four scenarios of greenhouse warming to 2030.
Various models are integrated into the Model of Warming Commitment, a major model that was used to project future emissions of the six gases that contribute most to global warming. From the perspective of 1987, four scenarios are utilized to reflect different levels of effort toward the slowing of greenhouse warming. Scenario 1.) Base Case: there is no change in industry practices, it is a business as usual world, with no policies to slow down Co2 emissions and minimal environmental costs are included in the price of energy. Scenario 2.) High Emissions: growing population in the industrialized nations and developing nations accelerate the use of technology and thus the demand for energy, but no policies are set in place to improve Co2 emissions or improve end-use efficiency. Scenario 3.) Modest Policies: in this scenario, there is a lot of successful research and development in the area of solar energy, which gives people a strong realization about the importance of the environment; substantial environmental costs are imposed on energy prices to encourage fuel switching. Scenario 4.) Slow Build-Up: strong emphasis on energy efficiency, major global commitment to reforestation, high environmental costs imposed on energy prices. Even in the bast case scenario of a slow build-up of greenhouse gases, there is still a likelihood of an increase in 2 or 3 degrees C by 2030, resulting in major climate change. In the other scenarios, temperature change could be two to three times as great.
Superquake! Why Earthquakes Occur and When the Big One Will Hit Southern California. David Ritchie (Baltimore MD). NY: Crown, Feb. 1988/185p. An "Earthquake Day" scenario to 21st century.
At 7:30 on a summer morning in the not-distant future the Los Angeles area is hit by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake lasting 75 seconds. This is the "Big One," but it occurs not along the San Andreas Fault, but along the relatively minor Newport-Inglewood Fault. The results, however, are anything but minor. Tens of thousands are killed, a million injured. The transportation links that tie the Los Angeles area to the rest of the United States are virtually severed. Fires rage and toxic chemicals spill. Ultimately the costs are in the trillions of dollars, driving the U.S. economy into a tailspin. In addition to this scenario, the history of earthquakes in California and discussions of other quake-prone areas of the United States are discussed in this book. Worthwhile to compare the details of this scenario with the 1994 Los Angeles quake.
Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century? Stephen H. Schneider, San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, Oct. 1989/317p. A global warming scenario to the 21st century.
A warmer climate resulting from the greenhouse effect causes significant impacts on North America. Drier, hotter summers result in a loss of agricultural production in the Midwest, the death of forests in northern states like Minnesota, and water shortages in states like New York and California. Violent >
Using Scenarios to Explore Future Energy Demand in Industrialized Countries. Lee Schipper and Stephen Meyers Energy Policy March 1993. Three scenarios of OECD average sectoral energy intensities in the year 2010.
This article presents scenarios that represent the direction in which current and expected trends seem to be moving; what might happen if energy efficiency were given a high priority by governments and the private sector; and what might be achieved if restraining energy use became a very high priority for public policy. The scenarios delineate an important boundary between a relatively easily attainable improvemnt in efficiency and a more problematical level of change. Scenario 1.) Trends: "this scenario reflects a world in which energy prices rise slowly, and only modest attention is given to energy efficiency. In keeping with the current expert consensus world oil prices increases by around 50% between 1990 and 2010, with more of that increase coming in the first decade of the next century than in the 1990s. Scenario 2.) Cost: "this scenario envisions a future in which full adoption of marginal cost energy pricing and internalization of many environmental and other externalities boosts real energy prices to uses by 25-50% relative to the trends scenario." Scenario 3.)Vigorous Effort: this scenario depicts the most that could plausibly be achieved within a 20 year time horizon. The limit is not so much technology itself, but rather the rate at which more efficient technologies and practices could penetrate widely into the capital stock. Energy prices rise to 50-100% higher than in the trends scenario, reflecting incorporation of strong carbon taxes as well as more aggressive internalizaton of externalities associated with local environmental problems related to energy production and use."
Scenarios for Energy: Sustainable World vs. Global Mercantilism. Adam Kahane Long Range Planning August 1992 Vol. 25. Two energy scenarios of the world to 2010.
This paper outlines two scenarios prepared in the Group Planning coordination of Shell International Petroleum Company. The World of 1990: "The only solid basis we have for discussing the future is information about the past and the present. In 1990, the present is a time ofpromise but also of considerable risk. In these scenarios, we concentrate on three areas of potentially far-reaching change: geopolitics, international economics, and the natural environment. Scenario 1.) Global Mercantilism: "In this scenario, the new post-Cold War international order proves to be too weak to withstand serious political and economic shocks and set-backs. Regional conflicts, such as in the Middle East, are destabilizing and difficult for the new order to deal with. The current GATT negotiations fail or, at best, produce a feeble and meaningless agreement. Financial instability is accentuated by deregulation and rising interest rates. Faced with a downturn, politicians focus on national economic difficulties, and there is little international leadership. Continued frustration over trade and investment imbalances leads to increased protectionism. Overall, the response to the downturn is ineffective and confrontational, and it turns into a recession as severe as in the early 1980s." Scenario 2.) Sustainable World: In this scenario, the international economic frictions that have been in the headlines can be resolved, and attention focuses instead on the resolution of common problems, including environmental ones. There is widespread consensus on recipes for economic stability and growth, and co-operation among the largest economies allows economic shocks to be defused rather than accentuated. The dangers of a failure in international trade negotiations are recognized, and interdependence -- especially between the U.S.A. and Japan--is seen to be too great for ‘divorce’ to be a feasible option. Regional conflicts are dealt with effectively by large power alliances. A new security framework is built in Europe around the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE).
The Greenhouse Doomsday Scenario. Jeremy Rifkin, The Washington Post, Sunday, 31 July 1988, C3. A global warming scenario to 2035.
In the mid-21st Century, the world is hotter by 4-15 degree F. Current industrial growth, fossil fuel use, and consumption continued unchanged - global temperature rise was destined to be the result. "By 2035 there were palm trees in New York City, Holland was under water, Bangladesh no longer existed; there were parched deserts in central Europe and the US Midwest, and the Canadian population swelled to 200 million." This scenario concludes that the only effective means of absorbing Co2 is through reforestation, but currently, the rate of deforestation is 10 times greater than reforestation. Reducing Co2 will require enormous worldwide coordination and mobilization.
Our Drowning World: Population, Pollution, and Future Weather. Anthony Milne, Bridgeport, Dorset UK: Prism Press, March 1988/154p. A environmental scenario to mid-21st Century.
The author describes the earth getting warmer, in which rising tidal levels may be the most critical environmental problem of the coming century. "During two centuries of progress we have been our own ‘Horsemen of the Apocalypse,’ killing not with fire and sword but by unleashing ill-understood and complex chemical and biological processes." The author describes a pessimistic floodwave scenario of the end of the world as we know it, due to warming. "Our assault on nature was driven by what was perceived as the virtue of accumulation, and for a long time we excused it as cruel innocence, a tolerable side effect of progress. But it turned into a culture of consumption and an inexcusable threat to human survival."
Los Angeles 2007: Implications of a Scenario Analysis for Energy Forecasting. Stephen M. Millett Planning Review May/June 1992. Three scenarios of L.A. to 2007.
Using alternative scenarios of possible future conditions, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWAP) has developed contingency plans to meet long-term demand in the most efficient and economical manner. Scenario 1.) Continued trends: In this extrapolation of current statistics, the population grows to 10.8 million by 2007; growth in per capita income is moderate; the regulatory environment remains the same; fuels increase in price between 3 and 8 percent per year; advances in technologies using electricity create modest increases in total demand; technologies improving the efficiency of generation and transmission of electricity make minor advances; rates charged by LADWP rise at or near the inflation rate: demand for electricity increases slowly and steadily, mostly in the commercial and residential categories. Scenario 2.) Technology Pull for Electricity: "Innovations in certain technologies, such as electric cars, vastly increases demand, especially in the residential category; Federal regulation toughens; fuel costs rises mor than 8 percent per year; co-and self-generation of electricity by commercial and industrial customers increases; LADWP rates rise faster than inflation; population ranges from 8.8 to 9.8 million; and growth in per capital income is moderate." Scenario 3.) Reduced Demand for Electricity: "Adoption of the electric car and other demand-creating technology is slow; regulation is weak, co-and self-generation facilities increase; power station generation or transmission technologies don’t become significantly more efficient; the cost of fuel increases less than 3 percent per year or even declines slightly; LADWP rates increase at or near inflation rate; current economic and demographic trends continue; electricity sales to residential, commercial and industrial categories falls almost to 1986 levels, largely due to conservation."
Twelve Scenarios for Southern California. Edison Case Study Planning Review May/June 1992. Twelve scenarios of the energy environment for Southern California to 21st century.
In 1986, Southern California edison completed a review of its planning practices over the past 20 years. The company decided that the best way to plan for future uncertainties is to postulate a series of plausible scenarios and prepare flexible responses for each of them. After a historical review of trends and a scenario planning analysis, the following 12 scenarios are presented and in the article, coupled with responses. Scenario 1.) Economic Bust: "the nation is in a protracted depression, the result of a U.S. imposed high tariff on imports, followed by retaliations, which greatly reduce international trade...The reduced level of economic activity results in a direct loss of 3,000 megawatts of load..." Scenario 2.) High Fuel Cost: "extremely high oil prices and sluggish economic growth are triggered by such events as the re-emergence of OPEC. The price of ooil skyrockets to $80/bbl and the resulting shock creates a global economic recession much like the mid 1970s." Scenario 3.) Extensive Bypass: "Plentiful supplies of natural gas, improvements in micro-cogeneration systems, and high SCE rates induce many industrial and commercial customers to provide their own power..." Scenario 4.) Expanded Environmentalism: "drastic environmental restrictions on air emissions, water quality, waste disposal, and land use are imposed on Southern California to meet EPA standards ..." Scenario 5.) Noncompetitive Pricing: "SCE’s efforts to contain "uneconomic bypass" cogenerators have been unsuccessful. Sales lost to self-generation increase, and SCE’s ability to maintain its cost competitiveness is in jeopardy. As a result, the company loses 1,000 megawatts of load". Scenario 6.) Economy Imports: "An abundance of externally generated, low-cost energy is now available for purchase by SCE from new hydro projects in Canada;..." Scenario 7.) Generation Shutdown: "Two thousand megawatts of SCE-owned baseload capacity is lost due to events beyond the company’s control..." Scenario 8.) Conflict: "Because of global tensions, a large military buildup occurs. California defense contractors increase production of airplanes, missiles, and space weapons..." Scenario 9.) Electrification: "A sudden wave of new electrical devices, processes, and applications on the market. There is also a big increase in industrial electricity usage and wide acceptance of electrical powered vehicles..." Scenario 10.) Low Oil Prices: "A period of strong economic growth is bolstered by low oil prices as a result of declining open power or the discovery of new resources elsewhere..." Scenario 11.) Economic Boom: "There is an explosion of economic activity in California created by strong economic activity throughout the Pacific Rim, which produces a large proportion of the world’s manufactured goods, particularly electronics, computers, automobiles, steel, machinery, aerospace, and textiles. China and Japan rival the U.S. as the largest consumer markets in the world." Scenario 12.) Base Case Business Environment: "Assumes a continuation of present trends. These include economic expansion, a continued shift from heavy industry to services, moderate inflation, stable prices for oil and gas fuels, intensified environmental quality concerns, and continued residential construction and customer growth within SCE's service territory."
Environmental Futures: Four Visions from the Appalachian Trail Rik Scarce, Futures Research Quarterly, 4:1, Spring 1988, 5-22. Four environmental scenarios to 2000.
In 1986 the Appalachian Trail Conference (ATC) established a Long-Range Planning Committee (LRP) to look at environmental and control issues affecting the Appalachian Trail (AT). The committee wrote a report, Alternative Futures for the Appalachian Trail and Appalachian Trail Conference in the Year 2000 that included scenarios derived from an extensive alternative futures matrix. The matrix and four scenarios are presented. Scenario 1.) Continued Growth: "an optimistic scenario extrapolating trends touting the success of U.S. economic liberalism, achievements in technology, and the promise of general advancement for all. Tensions between the icehouse effect (another theory about climate change) and the greenhouse effect stabilizes world climate. The AT is managed by private hands and private funds, with the ATC as a shining example of the success of private groups directing the use of public lands." Scenario 2.) Decline and Stagnation: "the economy is weak and American life is chaotic. Ecological changes along the Trail are most profound and the demand for wood, long the primary fuel of developing countries, skyrocketed in the US, as natural gas and oil prices rose." Scenario 3.) Sustainable Society: "a new set of values gains growing acceptance throughout the US. The bioregional concept, based on the geographical, floral, and faunal characteristics of given areas, appealed to people from coast to coast who were disgusted with the ever increasing environmental degradation. The Trail stands as a symbol of these new values and is well taken care of." Scenario 4.) The Transformation Future: "people realize the importance of individual freedom. The work-hard-for-money 80’s was appreciated, but there is more to life than that. There are many choices since society has become high-tech. New technology and increased leisure time have influenced the Appalachian Trail in profound ways."
Paradigms in Progress: Life Beyond Economics. Hazel Henderson. Knowledge Systems (1991); Berrett-Koehler, 1995. Environmental scenario to the 21st century.
Social and environmental costs increasingly challenge the price system and GNP/GDP calculators of economic growth as "progress." The rise of civil society: the world’s informal, non-money sectors and citizen movements for corporate and government accountability compete for media and policy attention. The search for new values and "earth ethics" leads to new statistics beyond GNP/GDP which are inter-disciplinary and measure "quality of life" directly.
Dead Heat: The Race Against the Greenhouse Effect. Michael Oppenheimer and Robert H. Boyle, A New Republic Book. NY: Basic Books, April 1990/268. A global warming scenario to 2050.
In this scenario, a series of disasters from the mid-1990s until 2050 devastate the continental United States. The cause -- global warming. This book considers the many strategies that might be applied toward reducing the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Into the 21st Century: A Handbook for a Sustainable Future. Brian C. Burrows, Alan J. Mayne and Paul Newbury, Adamine Studies of the 21st Century, #1. Twickenham UK: Adamantine Press, Aug 1991/442p. Three scenarios of sustainable development to 2100.
After considering world models and past scenarios of world futures, the authors provide the following alternative scenarios of sustainability. Scenario 1.) A Pessimistic Scenario: unchecked continuation of present trends. In the 1990s, widespread conflict continues in the Middle East despite efforts to build a lasting peace. As a result, oil production is reduced and major pollution problems occur. Terrorism becomes an increasing problem around the world. Environmental damage continues unabated as economic expedience overrides long-term sustainability. In the 21st century, the situation worsens as climate change resulting from global warming, combined with massive population growth, results in wide-scale environmental destruction. Scenario 2.) A Piecemeal Scenario: various environmental problems facing the planet are tackled, but slowly and separately. The Middle East conflict continues with much destruction to the environment but relatively small loss of life. The economies of Eastern Europe make a successful transition to capitalism while poverty and malnutrition becomes endemic in the developing world. China’s industrial development adds to the greenhouse gas problem. Although some technological "fixes" have solved a few problems, accidents by technology, such as nuclear power plant explosions, contaminate urban and rural areas. Scenario 3.) An Optimistic Scenario: a new world social order emerges and problems are dealt with systemically. Private enterprise becomes more responsive to the environmental needs of the planet. This, combined with public pressure, results in dramatic reductions in energy and resources. The improved economic and political climate results in a decline of social tensions and a reduction in terrorism. In the 21st century, many of the world’s problems are well on the way to being solved. By the mid-21st century the standard of living for all of the world’s people begins to increase significantly as new technologies (for example, solar energy, genetic engineering, and computers), are put to uses that benefit humanity.
2050: Standing Room Only? Carl Haub, The Washington Post, Sunday, 8 July 1990, C3. Population scenarios to 2050.
This article makes a plausible argument against conventional population projections. The author believes that population growth will be much higher by 2050. The article utilizes mini-scenarios to illustrate population trends. Recent trends suggest that generally accepted UN estimates of a world population peaking at around 10.2 billion people may be too low, citing such things as the increase in fertility in some industrialized countries and decreasing commitment to controlling population growth in the developing world.
Beyond the Petroleum Age: Designing a Solar Economy. Christopher Flavin and Nicholas Lenssen. Worldwatch Paper 100. Washington: Worldwatch Institute. Dec. 1990/65p. A practical energy scenario to 2030.
The authors describe a scenario that is driven by sustainable energy technologies becoming increasingly cost-effective. In this scenario, a major transition from petroleum energy sources to sustainable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric) occurs in the early part of the 21st century. These renewable energy sources will be cleaner and more secure than current petroleum-based sources. By 2030, renewable energy will supply much of the world’s energy needs 50 to 70 percent of current U.S. needs, for example, can be plausibly supplied by renewable energy.
The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Joel B. Smith and Dennis A. Tirpak, NY: Hemisphere Publishing Corp. May 1990/689p. Global warming scenarios to 2100.
A variety of computer-based scenarios using different meteorological variables identify a series of impacts that could result from global climate change. These impacts include: changes in water availability and quality, a one-meter rise in sea level by 2100 resulting in 25% to 80% of U.S. coastal wetlands being drowned; reduction in food crop production; significant changes in the country’s forests by the mid-21st century; a reduction of air quality in urban areas; increase in the mortality rate of the population, and increased demand for electricity.
The Cosmic Winter. Victor Clube and Bill Napier. Oxford UK and Cambridge MA: Basil Blackwell, March 1990/307p. An asteroid scenario.
This book opens with an apocalyptic scenario of Earth encountering a cosmic swarm of asteroids. The first few strikes occur in the Midwest of the U.S. and are initially interpreted as low-level nuclear attack. "The Secretary is informed that the damage corresponds to explosions amounting to at least twenty megatons. …The conclusion seems unavoidable that for some reason the Soviets have targeted bombs onto American territory, having somehow circumvented military radar." Within 24 hours the entire earth is bombarded by this terrestrial catastrophe. Clube discusses "terrestrial catastrophism" - the idea that the evolution of life and fundamental geological processes were actually controlled by sudden impacts of material from space. The conventional view is "that earth evolves in splendid isolation from its surroundings." According to the authors, this is proving to be wrong. "Swarms of asteroids that have crossed earth’s path have been proven to have occurred and had thus affected cosmic winters and sudden cooling of the globe over the past 5000 years."
Our Country, The Planet: Forging a Partnership for Survival. Shridath Ramphal, Washington: Island Press, May 1992/291p. Three scenarios of the environment to the year 2000.
This book derives from a personal statement by the former foreign minister of Guyana on the agenda of the Earth Summit. It contains a number of chapters on the environmental state of the world and concludes with three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Muddling Through: "a continuation of the present pattern of inadequate ad hoc responses to developments as they become critical. This is a scenario of well-intentioned but usually limited action; fire fighting rather than fire prevention. Only lip service is paid to the "precautionary principle" of minimizing, and wherever possible, preventing discharges of substances that would be harmful and of ensuring that products and processes are nonpolluting." Scenario 2.) An Ordered World: "the IMF and World Bank gain power as these institutions increasingly tackle global environmental problems, but on the overall, failure ensues because external values and methods are imposed on communities that more often have a better understanding about how to manage resources than outsiders." Scenario 3) Enlightened Change: the path of shared responsibility for our common future. A significant degree of multilateral commitment to environment and development, and ascendancy of democratic values worldwide. A good line is struck between self-denial and self-indulgence. Multilateral funds finance sustainable development.
Factors
Shaping and Shaped by the Environment: 1990-2010. Joseph F. Coates
J.F. Coates Inc, Washington, Futures Research Quarterly, 7:3, Fall 1991,
5-55. Six regional scenarios of the environment to 2010.
Despite a mixed regional situation, the overall prospects for environmental
improvement are poor. These scenarios provide a glimpse of the major trends
driving each region, and environmental consequences from the perspective
of 1991. Scenario 1.) Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc: the openness of glasnost
reveals massive environmental degradation and economic systems ill-equipped
to deal with it the hope is a massive Civilian Conservation Corps like
program. Scenario 2.) Taiwan: rapid economic growth is both cause and cure.
It leads to a very degraded environmental situation, but provides the financial
means for a subsequent cleanup. Scenario 3.) Western Europe: environmental
prospects are the brightest here of any region in the world. Scenario 4.)
Brazil: faces the problems of rapid industrialization and world outcry
about the degradation of its rain forests. A promising development are
debt nature swaps. Scenario 5.) China: faces the problems of industrialization,
but unlike many other developing nations, has it’s population growth more
or less effectively under control. Scenario 6.) Sub-Saharan Africa: grim
prospects as governance deteriorates and limits effective actions, and
population growth is largely unchecked.
Top of the Page
From Growth to Equity and Sustainability: Paradigm Shift in Transport Planning? Ian Masser, Ove Svinden, and Michael Wegener Futures, 24:6, July - Aug 1992, 539-558. Two scenarios of transportation in Europe to 2020.
The Network for European Communications and Transport Activities Research was set in 1986, "involving more than 70 scholars from 19 European countries in a series of research projects. One project sought to explore the future evolution of transport and communications in Europe and to discuss alternatives for an integrated policy. The year 2020 was chosen as the forecasting horizon." Future Survey Annual 1994 This report poses two scenarios of transport and communications in Europe. Key assumptions driving the scenarios are: continuing legitimacy of the European government, population of 400-500 million, and no big catastrophes. Scenario 1.) Basically a scenario of growth, equity, and environmental sustainability. Scenario 2.) A horror scenario, considered most likely by experts if the growth path of Western European economies continues. There will be "unparalleled spatial disparities between regions and cities, congested roads, a collapsed public transport system, a disappearing countryside, and a devastated environment."
The Future of World Population. Wolfgang Lutz, Population Bulletin, 49:1, June 1994/47p. World population scenarios to 2030
This is a report based on a late 1992 meeting of demographers at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis. Key trends discussed were: world population continues to grow; developing countries will account for a growing share of the population; and average age increases will take place in all regions. This report provided a full array of scenarios. Scenario 1) Baseline: moderate levels of fertility decline and mortality improvement yields a world population of 9.5 billion in 2030 or 12.6 billion in 2100; Scenario 2.) High Migration, High Mortality, Low Fertility: world population is 8.3 billion in 2030; Scenario 3.) Low Migration, Low Mortality, High Fertility: world population is 10.7 billion in 2030; Scenario 4.) Low Migration, Low Mortality, Low Fertility: world population is 9 billion in 2030.
Energy for Tomorrow’s World: The Realities, the Real Options, and the Agenda for Achievement. World Energy Council, WEC Commission. London: Kogan Page & NY: St. Martin’s Press , Dec 1993/320p. Energy scenarios to 2020.
The World Energy Council developed four energy scenarios to illustrate future possibilities in a world of 8.1 billion people by 2020, with global demand ranging from 17.2 gigatons (Gtoe) oil equivalent in a "high growth" scenario to 11.3 Gtoe in an "ecologically driven" scenario. Major concerns are reflected in the proposed Agenda for Action, such as increasing availability of non-fossil fuels, curbing harmful emissions, and removing institutional rigidities. This report concludes that, beyond 2020, the magnitude of supply problems could expand drastically, especially if higher global energy demand occurs and too little is done to develop alternatives.
The Fragile Tropics of Latin America: Sustainable Management of Changing Environments. Edited by Toshie Nishizawa and Juha I. Uitto, Tokyo: United Nations University Press, March 1995/325p. Two scenarios of sustainability to 2030.
Two scenarios in the next forty years are made for tropical Latin America, a region that is critical to global health with its biodiversity and natural resources. Scenario 1.) Reference Scenario: continuation of trends that push the agricultural frontier and intensifies land use. Moderate economic growth and decreasing national regulations cause the unchanged mode of development, expanding influence of transnational corporations, and the dominance of market forces. Social and economic inequities can only increase. The performance of environmental policies are ineffective, further threatening ecosystems due to an export-oriented economy. New technology fails in its application. International coordination of economic policies would reform the external debt of the LDC, reversing the current net capital flow from the South to the North. Scenario 2.) Sustainable Scenario: characterized by the satisfaction of the needs of the population, better economic and social equities, participation, and decentralization. Assumptions are the implementation of national and regional environmental policies; R&D focusing on regional issues; social and economic reforms; land use zoning and regulation of the agricultural frontier; industrial policies for renewable and non-renewable natural resources and agriculture; the development of local energy sources; technological innovations for the revalorization of the renewable natural resources, and the development of new sustainable productive uses and internal and international market "windows of opportunity", especially regarding tropical forests and agricultural production. The technological pluralism (complementary use of traditional, modern, and high technology), and productive pluralism (the coexistence of different types of agriculture), are emphasized. Future Survey Annual 1996
Growing Green: Enhancing the Economic and Environmental Performance of U.S. Agriculture. Paul Faeth (WRI). Washington: World Resources Institute, April 1995/81p. Six scenarios of sustainable agriculture to the 21st century.
US economic and environmental performance in agriculture can be enhanced, with special focus on subsidy programs. Scenarios illustrate the study’s findings. Scenario 1.) Standard Baseline: reflects policies enacted in the Food, Agriculture, Conservation and Trade Act. Only predominant production practices are represented in the standard base line. Scenario 2.) Extended Baseline: the policy assumptions remain the same, but the alternative production practices are analyzed with more conventional ones. Scenario 3.) Supercompliance: introduces a tighter conservation-compliance regulation in commodity practices. Scenario 4.) Fixed Subsidy for Best Management Practices Scenario: assumes nationwide extension of the Agricultural Conservation Program, providing cost-shares for conservation practices. Scenario 5.) Adjustable Subsidy for Soil and Water Quality: examines the benefit of targeting. Subsidies are based on performance, determined by the value of avoided damages to off-site water quality. Scenario 6.) Adjustable Subsidies with Program Cuts: increases unpaid acreage (normal flex acres) from 15% to 50%. As a result of this study, a major reduction in agriculture’s impact on the environment is possible as well as economically advantageous.
World Supply and Demand Projections for Cereals, 2020 Mercedita C. Agcaoili and Mark W. Rosegrant Listing of 2020 Briefs file:///B!.NUMBER02.HTM. Three scenarios of world cereal supply to 2020.
Three scenarios of world food and supply. Scenario 1.) Current Growth Rates will Continue: baseline scenario describing the developed countries producing more than they consume, but cereal deficits in developing countries continue to increase to the year 2020. Scenario 2.) 20 Percent Reduction in Yield Growth Rates: presents the likely cereal supply and demand situation if yield rates are 20 percent lower than their current levels. Scenario 3.) "Scenario 2" Plus a 20 Percent Reduction in Income Growth Rates in Developing Countries: compounds the slower yield growth (in scenario 2), with a 20 percent decline in the growth of national incomes in developing countries.
The Wealth of Notions - The Ecological Revolution and the Power of Ideas. William K. Shireman Global Futures Foundation Internet: http://www/quiknet.com/globalff/globnoti.html. Two scenarios of sustainability to early 21st century.
Study of sustainability by Global Futures Foundation. Key trends are: increasing resource depletion and increasing ability to conserve energy (Negawatts and Immaterials). Three things businesses need to do: identify waste, eliminate waste, and count the money they save. Scenario 1.) Sustainable Growth: taxes on consumption, energy efficiency, reduced transportation growth, stabilizing population. Scenario 2.) Industrial Growth: taxes penalize income and investment, little energy efficiency, industrializing countries follow industrial model, education remains stagnant, population grows.
The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Joel B. Smith and Dennis A. Tirpak NY: Hemisphere Publishing Corp. May 1990/689p. Scenarios of global climate change from 2000 to 2100.
The Environmental Protection Agency pulled together a variety of scenarios to determine the impacts of global climate change. Impacts include: changes in water availability and quality; a one-meter rise in sea level by 2100 resulting in 25% to 80% of U.S. coastal wetlands being drowned; reduction in food crop production; significant changes in the country’s forests by the mid-21st century; a reduction of air quality in urban areas; increase in the mortality rate of the population; and increased demand for electricity.
Renewable Energy from the Ocean: A Guide to OTEC. William A. Avery and Chih Wu. NY: Oxford Press, March 1994/446p. Two U.S. energy scenarios to 2020.
Two scenarios for commercial development are proposed: Scenario 1.) Methanol Commercialization: "construction of 427 methanol plantships at about $500 million each with enough total capacity to replace the imported petroleum used in the US; if financial support is maintained, the program can be completed by 2020." Scenario 2.) Ammonia Commercialization: "construction of 1,681 ammonia plantships at about $450 million each to supply enough fuel to replace all gasoline used in the US in 1990. The principal differences between the two scenarios are that replacing gasoline with ammonia fuel would entirely eliminate carbon emissions, but would require a larger automobile adaptation cost."
Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, Global Scenario Group, California Institute of Technology http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf. Six scenarios of sustainable development.
Global scenarios divided into three broad categories: Conventional Worlds,
Barbarization, and Great Transitions. Conventional Worlds "have in common
a vision of a world where development, governed by the growth dynamics
of industrial society, is gradual and steady. Population grows and aggregate
economic output expands indefinitely while consumption and production practices
in developing and transitional regions converge toward those of industrialized
countries, even as the latter become much richer. The world becomes progressively
more integrated both economically and culturally." Within Conventional
Worlds, there are two scenarios. Scenario 1.) Reference Scenario: economic
growth is given first priority as economies open and largely unregulated
markets expand internationally. While some countries, groups and firms
lose the race and are excluded, many prosper. Technological development
is rapid, driven by market opportunities. Scenario 2.) Balanced Growth:
growth-oriented, but assumes a comprehensive policy response to the environmental
and social risks encountered in the Reference scenario. This scenario does
not assume major deviations in the conventional development paradigm, values,
and institutional structures, but within those constraints incorporates
rapid economic growth, greater distributional equity, and vigorous attempts
to protect the environment. Barbarization scenarios "explore the possibility
that the coming century will be far grimmer than the conventional wisdom.
Barbarization scenarios assume that the negative stresses present in Conventional
Worlds scenarios overwhelm the coping capacity of markets and management
institutions. The world veers toward Barbarization - worlds of sharply
declining physical amenities and widespread breakdown in the social and
moral underpinnings of civilization. The major driving forces initially
propelling this scenario include worldwide political and economic changes,
inequity and persistent poverty, growing populations, increasing environmental
problems, and rapid technological innovation." Within Barbarization, there
are two scenarios. Scenario 1.) Breakdown: the degree of conflict and rivalry
between the different international actors has become so high that no long-term
concerted actions are possible. Chaos rather than coherence becomes the
order of the day. Scenario 2.) Fortress World: the rich international actors
comprehend the dangers of forces leading to the Breakdown scenario that
confront them, and are able to muster a sufficiently organized response
to protect their own interests and to create lasting alliances between
them. Arising within the cynical and pessimistic social mood of Barbarization
conditions, these alliances are not directed at improving the general well-being,
but at protecting the privileges of the rich and powerful elites. Great
Transitions: scenarios explore the possibility that global society, rather
than continuing its present course (Conventional Worlds) or descending
into cruelty and chaos (Barbarism), evolves to a higher stage. These scenarios
may seem idealistic and improbable from today's perspective--but they are
possible, and may even be necessary to achieve the goals of sustainability
and equity. The scenarios are Global Governance and the New Sustainability
Paradigm, which differ in their mechanisms but not in their (quantitative)
endstates. One feature common to these scenarios is the emergence of three
important new social actors: intergovernmental global organizations, transnational
corporations, and non- governmental organizations.
Top of the Page
Humanity Comes Into Its Own - The First Truly Human and Global Society Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.
This scenario assumes that the full economic and social effects of recent
technological advances are still far from realized, and that they are likely
to propel a widespread and lasting surge of economic growth--growth that
will be surprisingly widespread and, in developing regions, very rapid.
Further, this wave of rising prosperity will bring peace and increasing
individual freedom to an unprecedented proportion of the world's people.
This scenario acknowledges that many environmental problems may worsen
(although some may eventually turn around) and that economic disparities
may increase, but asserts that these stresses will not be sufficient to
undermine progress in most regions. The result, a century hence, will be
the first truly human and global society.
Top of the Page
The Environment in Geopolitical Relations. Ike Chang and Lloyd Dixon, RAND. Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.
A new paradigm of geopolitical relations emerges in which the environment
acts as the basis of political, economic, and military relations between
rich and poor countries. National leaders of rich countries couch their
foreign policies in terms of environmental protection. Political regimes
of poor countries threaten the world with environmental contamination to
extract financial concessions and political support from richer countries.
Eventually, military actions are justified under the rationale of "protecting
the global environment."
Top of the Page
Related
Research Menu
Millennium Project Home Page