In the first round of the questionnaire, the international panel was given the matrix below and asked to identify additional threats to environmental security. The panel's responses that follow are organized via the same matrix cell numbers.
 

Environmental Threat Matrix
 

	By Ignorance and/or Mismanagement	By Intention	Mix of Natural and Human Action
Within a Country	C.1  Oil spills in Ogoniland Nigeria  Aral Sea depletion in Russia  Indonesian fires  Ground water contamination  Hazardous wastes	C.2  Sarin gas attack in  Tokyo subway  Chemical attacks in Iraq	C.3  Floods  Famines  Salinization
Trans-border	C.4  Rain forest depletion  River usage in (Jordan, Nile,  Tigris, Euphrates)  Chernobyl Nuclear Accident  Diminishing Biodiversity  Ozone depletion	C.5  Burning oil fields in  Kuwait	C.6  Solar radiation changes  Global Warming  AIDS

In the second round, the panel was asked to identify who should have the policy leadership to address these threats identified in the first round using the numbers below:

1 = International Organizations (UN, UN organizations and affiliated institutions, and regional bodies like NATO and OAS)
2 = National Government's Military Organizations
3 = National Government's Civilian Agencies
4 = National Government's Intelligence Agencies
5 = Corporations, Private Sector
6 = NGOs
7 = Not clear who has the lead-responsibility
8 = Others, specify.

The numbers within the parenthesis after the threats listed below refer to the panel's judgements of which of the above institutions have policy leadership.

C1 Within a Country, By Ignorance and/or Mismanagement

Examples of current or previous threats

Oil spills in Ogoniland Nigeria (3 with some from 5)
Aral Sea depletion in Russia (3 with some from 1)
Indonesian fires (3 with some from 1)
Ground water contamination (3 with some from 1)
Hazardous wastes (3 with some from 5)

Future threats

Particulate emission in power plants and factories (no agreement)
Over fishing, and environmentally irresponsible fishing techniques including bottom trawling, long-lining, use of fine-mesh nets, muro ami, and dynamite fishing (3 with some from 1 and 6)

Extraction and transport of oil and other resources in environmentally sensitive areas (both 1 and 3)
Transportation of alien species into new ecosystems (both 1 and 3)
Chemicalisation of sources and sinks causing depletion of human health and reproductive capacity (3 and 1)
Water scarcity (especially in the Middle East, parts of Africa and China) (1 and 3)
Soil erosion (worldwide problem) (1 and 3 with some 6)
Disease epidemics (e.g., cholera in Peru 1991) (3 with some from 1)
Old growth forests depletion (3)
Radioactive waste management; underground nuclear waste storage tanks (3 with some 2)
Solid waste (3)
Urban oil burning power plants (3)
Disposal of hazardous/toxic wastes (3 with some from 1, 2, and 5)
Increasing and intensive using of chemical fertilizer, pesticide and detergents (3 with some from 1 and 5)
Depletion/Damming of internal rivers causing ecological change (3)
Contamination of soil through spills or leakage of solid/liquids requiring remediation (3 & 1)
Lack of effective exploitation of mineral resource scattering in village and local level with primary technology; without or lack of effective official management (3 with some 1)
Over-consumption trends around the world (1)
Settlement/development, or encroachment onto hazardous environments such as riverine and coastal flood plains, earthquake-prone and volcanically active zones (3 with some 1)
Settlement/development/misuse of sensitive/hazardous or unsustainable development environments such as marginal grasslands/arid environments (3 with some 1)
Settlement/development/misuse of ecologically sensitive zones such as certain forest, desert, wetland and marine environments (3 with some 1)
Diversion/misuse of water resources such as diversion of water courses to agricultural or urban areas at the expense of draining environmentally sensitive wetlands (3 with some 1)
 

C2 Within a Country, By Intention
 

Current or previous threats

Sarin gas attack in Tokyo subway (4 with some 1 and 3)
Chemical attacks in Iraq (1 with 3, 4, and 7)
 

Future threats

Draining of southern marshes in Iraq (1 and 3)
Use of specialized equipment by some bottom trawlers which is specifically designed to "condition" the sea floor by leveling rock formations and coral heads which serve as critical habit for local species (1 with some 3)
Poisoning of water resources (groundwater and surface water) (3 with some from 4 and 1)
Rapid development of rural industrial development in China, some of them are heavily polluted industries taking the strategies of "Pollution first, treatment followed" (3 with 1 and some from 5)
Soil erosion due to increasing population demand for food (1 with some from 3 and 6)
Diversion/misuse of water resources such as diversion of water courses to agricultural or urban areas at the expense of draining environmentally sensitive wetlands (1 &3)
 

C3 Within a Country, Mix of Natural and Human Action
 

Current or previous threats

Floods (1 and 3)
Famines (1 with some from 3)
Salinization (1 and 3)

Future threats

Fires like those in Indonesian were not solely an in-country threat to environmental security - neighboring countries like Malaysia and Singapore were strongly affected (1)
Transport of species/introduction of non-native species (1 and 3)
Fishery depletion (1 and 3 with some from 6)
Earthquakes disasters (3, 1 with some from 2, 4, and 6)
Falling river flows and even stopping (e.g., lower reach of the Yellow River in China)(3)
Settlement/development/misuse of sensitive/hazardous or unsustainable development environments such as marginal grasslands/arid environments (3 with some 1)
Settlement/development or encroachment onto hazardous environments such as riverine and coastal flood plains, earthquake-prone and volcanically active zones (3 some 1)
Settlement/development/misuse of ecologically sensitive zones such as certain forest, desert, wetland and marine environments (3 with some 1)
 

C4 Trans-border, By Ignorance and/or Mismanagement
 

Current or previous threats

Rain forest depletion (1)
River usage in (Jordan, Nile, Tigris, Euphrates) (1 with some 3)
Chernobyl Nuclear Accident (1 and 3 with some 2)
Diminishing Biodiversity (1 with some 3 and 4)
Ozone depletion (1)

Future threats

Depletion of Fisheries (1)
Extraction and transport of oil and other resources in environmentally sensitive areas (1)
Transportation of alien species into new ecosystems (1)
Chemicalisation of sources and sinks causing depletion of human health and reproductive capacity (1)
Ozone layer depletion (1)
Global climate change due to greenhouse gases (1 with some 3 and 5)
Air pollution and acid rain in newly industrialized countries using old technologies (China, India, Brazil, South Africa) (1 and 3 some 5)
Poverty (1 and 3 with some 6)
Low radiation from accidents occurring in old nuclear power-plants (3 with some 1 and 2)
Spills from stockpiles of "old weapons" (all 1, 2, and 3)
Radioactive waste management (3 with some 1 and 2)
Disposal of chemical and biological wastes (3, 2 and 1)
Water competition and dam construction (3 and 1)
The huge amount of coal burning in China (around 800 million tons of coals directly burned annually) (3 with some 1 and 5)
Over fishing of threatened species e.g. Southern Bluefin Tuna and Patagonia Tooth Fish (1 and 3)
Environmental impacts of mismanaged human migrations (1)
Scarcity of fossil energy (oil/gas), other scarce sources (1 with some 3)
Settlement/development/misuse of sensitive/hazardous or unsustainable development environments such as marginal grasslands/arid environments (3 and 1)
Settlement/development or encroachment onto hazardous environments such as riverine and coastal flood plains, earthquake-prone and volcanically active zones (1 and 3)
Diversion/misuse of water resources such as diversion of water courses to agricultural or urban areas at the expense of draining environmentally sensitive wetlands (1 and 3)
Settlement/development/misuse of ecologically sensitive zones such as certain forest, desert, wetland and marine environments (3 and 1)

C5 Trans-border, by Intention

Current or previous threats

Burning oil fields in Kuwait (1 with some from 3 and 6)

Future threats

Poisoning water resources (groundwater and surface water) (1 with some 3)
River usage/control (see C4 , add Brahmaputra, etc). Dam construction in Turkey-Iraq (competition for water), in N. Korea-S Korea. Diversion/misuse of water resources such as diversion of water courses to agricultural or urban areas at the expense of draining environmentally sensitive wetlands (1 with some 3)
Use of specialized equipment by some bottom trawlers which is specifically designed to "condition" the sea floor by leveling rock formations and coral heads which serve as critical habit for local species (1 with some 3)
 

C6 Trans-border, Mix of Natural and Human Action

Current or previous threats
Solar radiation changes (1 with some 3)
Global Warming (1 with some 3)
AIDS (1 with some 3)

Future threats

Emerging diseases (1 with a little from 3 and 4)
Spread of drug resistant infectious disease (1 with some 3)
Ice storm disaster in Quebec and eastern Ontario (3 and 1 with some 2)
Human population growth (1 with some 3 and 6)
Poverty and the widening gap between "rich and poor" (3 and 1)
Increasing spiritual disconnectedness from Nature (1)
Big fires that are occurring , more and more frequently in the rain forest (Indonesia, Australia, Amazonia) and Mediterranean countries (1 with some 3)
Desertification (1 with some 3)
Infectious disease of plants and animals (1 with some 3)
Settlement/development/misuse of sensitive/hazardous or unsustainable development environments such as marginal grasslands/arid environments (1 with some 3)
Settlement/development or encroachment onto hazardous environments such as riverine and coastal flood plains, earthquake-prone and volcanically active zones (1 with some 3)
Settlement/development/misuse of ecologically sensitive zones such as certain forest, desert, wetland and marine environments (1 with some 3)

After assigning policy leadership responsibilities to the threats above, the international panel was asked what it expected to be the one or two most important environmental security threats within the next ten years. The following are the panelists' responses, which have not been rank ordered:
 

Human population growth and loss of biodiversity.
Climate change - not for its manifestations but for the momentum or lack of action; Water scarcity; food security.
Water/scarcity resources and environmental refugees.
Deforestation and industrial contamination of air and oceans
Air and water pollution. Deforestation and soil conservation/erosion.
Nuclear safety issues, and scarcity of fresh water, plus ground water contamination
Ozone depletion, global warming

Comment: Whilst I appreciate the intent, I find this framework to be very limiting and constricting. If you follow the view that PEOPLE are the prime concern when considering environmental security, the distinction between 'within a country' and 'transborder' seems rather arbitrary and beside the point. In a sense this framework reproduces the security bias inherent in most understandings of 'environmental security.'

Comment: Most of your "in country" examples are really transborder examples. I don't see sarin gas attack as directly applicable. (Staff comment: the sarin gas attack is an example of what could escalate. The event itself was not a matter of national security, but if it is the beginning of a trend, then it is an early indicator of national and international security concerns. Some reports indicated that the terrorists did try to get sample of the ebola to use instead.) Virtually all could be C3 or C6. Need to balance between specific and general examples. Any activity influencing the pattern and health of biodiversity and the amount and distribution of natural resource products affects environmental security.

Comment: The problem with this list is it assumes a "global citizen" approach, whereas almost by definition "national security" can only be defined within the context of the interests of a specific national state. If environmental security is a component of post Cold War enhanced national security, then it must, at least initially, reflect the interests of a specific national state.

Comment: I found myself having difficulty separating mismanagement from intentional damage, i.e., deforestation and loss of biodiversity. Please know the results of clear-cutting forests. Is that by intention or mismanagement? Losing biodiversity is perhaps not the goal of clear-cutting, but explaining destructive economic practices as mismanagement lessens the indictment and helps maintain the optimism that minor managerial adjustments can remedy the problem, when in fact fundamental assumptions must be questioned.

Comment: I think distinguishing among the sources of problems (between intentional, mismanagement, combination of national and human factors) and between location (within a country, transnborder, etc) is great. But that's only a portion of what would be necessary in a matrix aimed at evaluating priorities or identifying environmental problems that might lead to harmful effects that could be construed as "security" problems. Such a matrix would have to be far more complex, and would be very difficult to construct for the same reasons alluded to above in finding a common definition for security: everyone has a different view of whose security is important (individual, region, nation, panda bear, ecosystem, etc) and what constitutes a security issue.

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