AC/UNU Millennium Project
Future Ethical Issues Study
Round 2
       The deadline was March 15, 2004
On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in the second round of an international study to identify the most important future ethical issues that humanity may face in the foreseeable future. The first round was conducted several months ago. This second round is built on the results of the first round. You are invited to participate in Round 2 even if you did not participate in Round 1.

The Millennium Project is a global participatory system that collects, synthesizes, and feeds back judgments on an ongoing basis about prospects for the human condition. Its annual State of the Future, Futures Research Methodology, and other special reports are used by decision-makers and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions.

There are many institutes devoted to the study of ethics, and studies of current ethical issues that range from labor-management relations to human trafficking. This study is not trying to duplicate those many worthy efforts. Instead it is intended to explore ethical issues that may arise in the future, which are not well understood today, and that may need years to fully assess and address. This study is an early step in that process.

The first round asked participants to add future ethical issues to an initial list and to identify the values underlying those issues that may change over the next 25-50 years. Round 2 asks you to rate a subset of these future ethical issues and changes in values.

The results will be published in the 2005 State of the Future. Complimentary copies will be sent to those who respond to this questionnaire. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants in the study.

Please return your responses by 15 March 2005. You can respond to this on-line version or download the MS Word version at http://www.acunu.org/millennium/ethics-rd2.doc and e-mail it as an attached file to acunu@igc.org with copies to jglenn@igc.org and tedjgordon@worldnet.att.net.

We look forward to including your views.

Jerome C. Glenn, Director, AC/UNU Millennium Project
Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow, AC/UNU Millennium Project


Although no attributions will be made, for demographic analysis and so that you can be listed properly as a participant in the 2005 State of the Future, and a copy be sent to you, please fill in the information below:

Name:
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Introduction

Approximately 200 people responded to round 1 and suggested nearly 1,300 future ethical issues. These have been edited, combined, and analyzed to discern common ethical themes such as:
Section 1 includes specific ethical issues from these themes within three time periods. To prevent this questionnaire from becoming too long, it was necessary for the staff to distill the issues into a shorter list. However, all of the issues are being preserved for further study and will be included in the final report on this work.

For the purpose of this study, an "ethical issue" is defined as a question about what is right or wrong to do and "values" are defined as the rationales or bases for judging what is right or wrong.

Section 2 addresses values that may increase or decrease in intensity around the world in the coming decades. These are values by which one might judge ethical issues of the sort listed in Section 1.

Section 1:  The list below presents issues nominated in Round 1 that seemed to be on the minds of many respondents. This section explores the relative significance of these issues and the relative difficulty of their resolution. An important issue is one that will affect the beliefs and/or behavior of many people deeply, and will last more than a generation. Please use the following scales to rate the issues/questions below:

    Importance

            5 = extremely important - challenges religious beliefs and cultural traditions
            4 = very important - challenges existing beliefs, laws, and some cultural traditions
            3 = important - challenges usual and ordinary beliefs and practices of most people
            2 = not too important - challenges some people
            1 = not important
   
    Resolution
   Now please imagine the problems involved in addressing the issues. Are the problems:
            5 = exceedingly divisive—those with opposing points of view are intransigent
            4 = very difficult—no matter the outcome, many will be dissatisfied
            3 = tough—compromise is possible; painful but achievable
            2 = possible—compromise is in the cards
            1 = easy

Between the years 2005 to 2010

Is it right to allow people and organizations to pollute if they pay a fee or engage in pollution trading?
    Importance

    Resolution

What is the ethical way to intervene in the affairs of a country that is significantly endangering its or other people?
    Importance

    Resolution

Do parents have a right to create genetically altered “designer babies?”
    Importance

    Resolution

What are the ethical ways to develop applications of artificial intelligence?
    Importance

    Resolution

Should religions give up the claim of certainty and/or superiority to reduce religion-related conflicts?
    Importance

    Resolution

Should scientists be held personally responsible for the consequences of their research?
    Importance

    Resolution

Should national sovereignty and cultural differences be allowed to prevent international intervention designed to stop widespread violence perpetrated by men against women?
    Importance

    Resolution

Do we have a right to clone ourselves?
    Importance

    Resolution


If you wish, please add comments about any of your answers and/or add more important future ethical issues not listed for the period 2005 to 2010:


Between the years 2010 to 2025

Is it ethical to extend lifespan, no matter what the cost?
    Importance

    Resolution

Should there be two standards for intellectual, athletic, musical, and other forms of competition: one for the un-augmented and another for those whose performance has been enhanced by drugs, bionics, genetic engineering, and/or nanobots?
    Importance

    Resolution

Is it ethical to recreate extinct species?
    Importance

    Resolution

Do we have the right to alter our genetic germ line so that future generations cannot inherit the potential for genetically related diseases or disabilities?
    Importance

    Resolution

As the brain-machine interface becomes more sophisticated and global, do the demands of collective intelligence outweigh those associated with individual identity?
    Importance

    Resolution

Should there be a code of ethics to deal with the proliferating space junk?
    Importance

    Resolution

When does information pollution become a crime?
    Importance

    Resolution

Would the advent of global ethical norms unduly constrain the differences among groups or the evolution of values?
    Importance

    Resolution

To what degree should the rights and interests of future generations prevail in decisions of this generation?
    Importance

    Resolution

Should a person be subjected to psychological, social or cultural mechanisms for having the propensity to commit a crime (including, for example, the use of weapons of mass destruction) even if he or she has not yet committed such an act yet?
    Importance

    Resolution


If you wish, please add comments about any of your answers and/or add more important future ethical issues not listed for the period 2010 to 2025:

Between the years 2025 to 2050

Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into a new or several new species?
    Importance

    Resolution

Is it ethical for society to manage the creation of future elites who have augmented themselves with artificial intelligence and genetic engineering?
    Importance

    Resolution

Is it right for humans to merge with technology, as one way to prevent technological hegemony over humanity?
    Importance

    Resolution

With accelerating advances in psychoactive drugs and virtual reality, should there be limits to the pursuit of happiness?
    Importance

    Resolution

Should elimination of aging be available to everyone or just to those who can afford the treatments?
    Importance

    Resolution

Is it right to pursue research that will result in the creation of intelligent technological "beings" that will have the capacity to compete with humans or other biological life forms for an ecological niche?
    Importance

    Resolution

Should artificial life (life-mimicking software, sentient robots, etc.) or animals whose intelligence has been increased to near human levels, have rights?
    Importance

    Resolution

Considering the economic and other consequences of an aging population, should we have the right to suicide and euthanasia?
    Importance

    Resolution

Do we have a right to colonize other planets and use their resources?
    Importance

    Resolution

If technology develops a mind of its own, what ethical obligations should its creator(s) have?
    Importance

    Resolution

Do we have a right to genetically interfere with newborns or embryos because their genetic code shows a high probability for future violent behavior?
    Importance

    Resolution


If you wish, please add comments about any of your answers and/or add more important future ethical issues not listed for the period 2025 to 2050:


Section 2:  What values will be increasingly or decreasingly believed around the world? Round 1 presented some examples of values, which might change over the next 25 to 50 years; participants were asked to add to that list. Approximately 300 suggestions were received. As in the previous section, these have been edited and combined with the original list where appropriate to make a new composite list for your consideration below. The total list of suggestions from Round 1 is being preserved for further analysis and will be included in the final report on this study.

Although it is difficult to estimate the percent of people that believe in specific values, and even more difficult to estimate those percentages in the future, the collective judgment of the participants will indicate how values may be shifting around the world. Please provide your judgments about the items below using the following scale:

How widely do you think each of these values is accepted today and might be in the future?
            5 = very widely, accepted by almost everyone throughout the world
            4 = widely, accepted by 75% of the people
            3 = about 50% of the people accept this
            2 = narrowly, accepted by 25% or less of the world
            1 = almost no one believes it; less than 10%

Life is a divine unalterable gift.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Scientific research is a more reliable path to truth than religious faith.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Harmony with nature is more important than economic progress.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Collective judgment is generally better than individual judgment.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Collective security is more important than individual freedom.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Human survival as a species is the highest priority.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Compassion is required for justice.
    Today

    2025

    2050

People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Fairness underlies most successful policies.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights and be treated with the same respect as humans.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Human space migration is part of human evolution.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Make decisions which minimize (or preferably do no) harm.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Society has the obligation to intervene in genetic evolution to avoid its pitfalls and cruelties.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.
    Today

    2025

    2050

The spiritual dimension of human life is more important then the material one.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Care for future generations should be a major focus of today's actions.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Consideration of equity (e.g. distribution of benefits) is essential in decision making.
    Today

    2025

    2050

World interests should prevail over nation-state interests.
    Today

    2025

    2050

The family in all its forms is the foundation of social values.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy.
    Today

    2025

    2050

The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Access to education is a fundamental human right.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Treat other people the way you would like to be treated.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Collective considerations should prevail over individual well-being; make decisions that bring the most good to the most people.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Human beings have an obligation to mitigate suffering.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Precedents and tradition are important.
    Today

    2025

    2050

Make decisions that have universal applicability.
    Today

    2025

    2050


Please add comments about any of your answers and/or add other value statements that may guide judgments about future ethical issues, considering particularly those which might change over the next 25-50 years:

General Comments:


Thank you for your participation.
The results will be sent to the participants in a complementary copy of the 2005 State of the Future.