Three Middle East Peace Scenarios; study conducted by the Millennium Project
Anti-Terrorism Scenarios; study conducted by the Millennium Project
The Future of American Politics. Richard A. Segal Jr., Executive Web Developor for Steve Forbes, founder and pioneer of Forbes Magazine. Richard S. Dunham, senior writer for Business Week.
Back to the Future: Final Report on Planning and Designing Legislatures of the Future. Max K. Arinder, executive director, Mississippi Joint Legislative Committee on Performance Evaluation and Expenditure Review (PEER). Journal of the American Society of Legislative Cerks and Secretaries. Volume 6, Number 2 Fall 2000.
The Government of Australia 2020 Project. Ian Fergusen. The Government of Australia 2020 Project, Working Paper, 2003.
Futureland: Nine Stories of an Imminent World. Autor: Walter Mosley
Possible Scenarios for Columbia’s Future. Author: James L. Zackrison
North Korea. Author: Christopher Salter
Not A Drop To Drink? A History Of Water: 2000 – 2020. Author: Oliver Moor
The Conflict Environment of 2016: A Scenario Based Approach. Author: Andrew F. Krepinevich
Sunset at Dawn. Author: Aisha Said
Seven War Scenarios Every Investor Should Consider. Author: Michael Brush
The Future of Crime. Author: Chris Lang
Public Governance in 2020. The Economist, April, 2001.
Security and Power in 2020. Author: Richard Worsley
September 11th: Chapter One of Which Scenario? Author: Jay Ogilvy
The Return of the State. Author: Peter Schwartz
The African Time Machine. WIRED November 2000. Institute for the Future
Scenarios for Russia: From Short-term Greed to Long-term Need? Heinrick Vogel
Wired Scenarios of BioWar. Ed Regis, WIRED Magazine
Enemies Go Nuclear. Waller Douglas
Database Nation: The Death of Privacy in the 21st Century. Garfinkle Simpson
Anti-Nuclear Physicians Publish Doomsday Scenario
Nuclear Scenario Alarming to Think Tank. David L. Marcus
Bracing for California’s Changing Landscape – Scenarios of California in 2020. Richard Thau
The Shape of the Future. Ramo Joshua Cooper
War Scenarios. World Press Review, Vol. 44, No. 6, 1997.
Beyond Yugoslavia. The Boston Globe . March 30, 1999 A9.
Science Fiction to Futuristic Scenarios. The Orange County Register December 13, 1999.
History Moving North. Robert Kaplan/ The Atlantic Monthly, Feb. 1997.
The Coming Anarchy. Robert Kaplan. The Atlantic Monthly, February, 1994.
Air Force 2025. Department of Defense. United States Air Force, 1997.
Three
Middle East Peace Scenarios;
study conducted by the AC/UNU Millennium Project
The study and full text of the scenarios is available on this website at: http://www.acunu.org/millennium/ME-Peace-Scenarios.html
Scenario 1: Water Works--Water crises led to water negotiations that built trust that peace was possible and boosted political negotiations. Momentum increased with new youth political movements, the "Salaam-Shalom" TV series complemented by Internet peace phone swarms, tele-education in refugee camps, the Geneva Accords complemented by parallel hardliner negotiations, joint development with Arab oil money and Israeli technology, participatory development processes, new oil pipelines from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, and a unique "calendar-location matrix" for time-sharing of the holy sites. UN troops enforced agreements with non-lethal weapons, and new forms of international collaboration cemented the peace.
Scenario 2: The Open City--The new Pope challenged Jewish and Muslim religious leaders to solve the question of governance in Jerusalem. Politics, power, and media all played a role in reaching a proposed solution that was ultimately codified in a resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly. The threat of a fatwa ended the suicide bombings; when the bombings stopped, so did the Israeli retaliatory missions. Education of young Muslims gradually changed; schools that once taught hatred moderated. On the question of refugees, the Israelis were concerned about being overwhelmed and outvoted by Palestinian immigrants in their democratic society. The issue promised to be inimical but a compromise restricted the right to vote to people who had lived in Israel for more than seven years. Finally, a historic proposal came to the UN from Israel-it traded guarantees of Israeli security for establishment of a permanent Palestinian state.
Scenario 3: Dove-"Dove" was a secret, contested Israeli plan to de-escalate and unilaterally renounce retaliation in order to demonstrate that Palestinians were aggressors. At the same time, a secret debate was taking place among extremist Palestinians on whether to escalate to more lethal weapons. Those against escalation said "If we desist, Israel will be seen as the aggressor." So each side had reasons for wanting to stop but seemed frozen by circumstances. The tide changed when 27 Israeli pilots said they would not participate in future air raids, initiating the "Refusnik" movement. What happened next was like a chess game. The Israelis got a guarantee that the bombing would stop; the Palestinians got an agreement that the Israelis would withdraw to the pre-1967 borders. A series of non-aggression treaties and agreements stated that Israel had a right to exist. Jerusalem became an open city, with its own democratic government. Immigration quotas were established. Foreign capital flowed into the area. New businesses were established, and unemployment among the Palestinians dropped sharply. It was a self-fulfilling cycle: the move toward peace sparked the environment for peace.
Anti-Terrorism
Scenarios; study conducted by the AC/UNU Millennium Project
The study and full text of the scenarios is available on this website at: http://www.acunu.org/millennium/antiterrorism.html
ABSTRACT
Shortly after the September 11th attacks, anti-terrorist scenarios
were requested on-line of participants on listserves of the Millennium
Project of the American Council for the United Nations University and
the World Future Studies Federation. Nine full scenarios were offered
and these were analyzed to identify and rate policies that might be helpful
in achieving peace and stability. Factors involved in the rating
were: apparent plausibility, effectiveness in eliminating terrorism
if implemented, and lack of downside potential. This work was posted on-line
with a further request for comments, modifications to existing
scenarios and added scenarios. Many comments were received. This paper
report contains the results of the feedback process.
The principal scenarios were:
ESCALATION: A long war involving attack and counter attack through biological and nuclear saber rattling. The poppy fields of Afghanistan are attacked with Agent Orange to dry up a principal source of terrorist income. But it is a long war. (Gordon)
COUNTER MINDSET: Political Islamisists saw secular Western capitalism
as reducing everything to a commodity, reinforcing individualism and greed,
and arrogantly running financial and political rules of the world to American's
benefit. They believed that Islam’s mission was now to set the world right.
The strategies followed by the international community addressed this mindset.
Television, radio, software, magazine, music materials were designed to reinforce
the idea that this was a war against terrorism and promoted the restoration
of the right and proper image of Islam. A "Global Partnership for
Development" gave reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists.
In short, this was an “intellectual arms race” (Glenn)
ROOT CAUSES: The US led military war against terrorism
failed to end terrorism. The US proposed a different global strategy involving
the provision of minimal standards of health, education, services
and housing, worldwide. After a short period of expansion and association with
other social radical movements, terrorism started to lose ground. A strong emphasis
was placed on education by nations of the world to reduce inequality in access
to work opportunities and to attain an acceptable standard of living on a global
basis. (Gutierrez)
SOCRATIC JUSTICE: The US used all of the powers that the UN could offer. The US ratified the International Criminal Court and encouraged other nations to do so. The US brought captured terrorists and criminals to the Court and then focused on new modes of international cooperation. (Gordon)
THE WILD WEST: US and Allied military strikes led to endless
escalation in a war that apparently was won, but over time sped up the
process of decline, with terror meeting terror. The CIA got back
into business on a big scale. Nations already poor became poorer.
(Inayatullah)
THE PEACEFUL COWBOY: The US sought means to cooperate with other nations to deal with terrorism in a more contained, targeted way, although a great deal of wild west posturing continued. There were three parts to its strategy: improved internal security; enhanced intelligence; and economic action.. Eventually, protection against terrorism has become almost a habit. (Barton)
THE NEXT YEAR: An invasion of the Taliban areas results
in the execution of the Taliban- held UN aid workers. This provides additional
moral support for more military strikes. The US considered
withdrawing support for Israel unless they reduced their military severity.
Casualties mounted. Bin Laden was apparently assassinated by one
of his men but more likely by Alliance special forces. (Rogers)
FORTRESS USA/OECD: Borders were closed, locked down. This led to general impoverishment and the loss of innovation that accompanies immigration. in the short run. It provided the appearance of security, but in the longer run, poverty resulted. (Inayatullah)
ESTABLISHING A GLOBAL CIVIC ETHIC: Key international NGO’s
formed a global council that believed that the major impediment to lasting
peace and global security was the lack of a global civic
ethic. A World Public Service was formed in which volunteers took on
global ethical management tasks in international conflict resolution. Their
strategy: potential combatants have to agree to mediation and
to implement the outcomes thereof. Failing this, sustained ongoing
sanctions would follow. Comprehensive military action overseen by a global
peace force would be a last resort. (Wildman)
COLONIALISM REBORN: After the US destroys the Taliban regime, internal conflicts in Afghanistan cause local rioting and escalating conflicts. bin Laden’s death (or capture) creates enthusiasm in the US and unrest in the Muslim countries. Massive deliveries of assistance for Afghanistan are provided to the country in the form of food, quick rebuilding of hospitals, others services, and infrastructure. In the Middle East, the US is forced either to put pressure on both parties to find a compromise, or to accept complete failure of the peace process and thus the West becomes further involved in the unstable region from Pakistan to the Middle East. An unexpected terrorist event dramatically changes the situation which then becomes similar to the colonial wars of the 19th and 20th centuries. A long period of reshuffling of the political and security system follow.
CALL ON THE UN: The investigation that "followed the money" to
map the criminal network and catch the criminals proved to be extremely
complex and the speed of international financial markets made
this task more difficult than anticipated. It became clear that the
US experience in Afghanistan would become similar to the USSR’s, but complicated
by continued terrorism at home. This situation lasted for
more than one year and induced some serious political changes both in different
Islamic countries where extremists obtained greater influence and in the US
too, where the war (and Bush) became unpopular. The "anti-global" movement gained
influence, and new leaders with new policies appeared. The UN was seen as potentially
more useful in settling international disputes than direct interventionism had
proven to be. The Bin Laden case, still unsolved, was taken over by the International
Criminal Court.
Other scenarios envisioned the successful rising up of local forces in those countries where the terrorism is based and achieving a situation in which terrorism gradually disappears or is reduced to its minimum.
The study and full text of the scenarios is available on this website at: http://www.acunu.org/millennium/antiterrorism.html
The Future of American Politics. Richard A. Segal Jr., Executive Web Developor for Steve Forbes, founder and pioneer of Forbes Magazine. Richard S. Dunham, senior writer for Business Week.
Technology trends greatly impact the way citizens organize, communicate, and vote. In the future, the behavior of citizens is likely to resemble the past, as it was in the 1830s. In 1830, Alexis de Tocqueville, struck by both the interest and influence of the average citizen in the electoral process once said, "The American people reign over the American political world as God rules over the universe." Scenario of the 21st Century: A Return to 'Democracy in America', by Alexis de Tocqueville": "It is the year 2015 but in many ways, it is similar to1830. Back then, candidates canvassed voters in their homes and citizens questioned politicians in public forums. The big difference today is, that it is all taking place on the internet. Back in 2004, voters felt less potent as the game was to raise enormous amounts of money from special interests and then spend it on gobs of TV advertising--in which candidates were packaged like beer. Victory went to the best mass marketer. In 2015, politics changed. The politics of 2015 resembles what Alexis de Tocqueville saw in 1830. The Information Revolution democratized politics by weakening the elites' grip on information. American voters, instead of being passive recipients of news and advertising from a few TV networks and national publications, today receive information from hundreds of competing sources, such as E-mail lists and Web sites. What's more, interactive media lets the voter talk back. It's personal again. Today in 2015, the masses attend campaign events in cyberspace and exchange ideas in online chat rooms. What went away by 2015 were the tight links between moneyed interests and the traditional apparatus of party politics. What ascended between 2004 - 2015 were single-issue groups that mobilized their troops with a computer keystroke, and coalitions around causes or candidates. ``It ended up weakening institutional structures,'' says White House Chief of Staff John D. Podesta. ``That's bad news for party discipline and good news for creativity.'' The risk of 2020 - 2050 is this: For nearly two and one-half centuries past, two major parties have moderated the public's passions because neither has dared stray too far from the center. If the parties splinter, the U.S. could wind up with a fractured, stalemated Congress and a President preferred by only a small portion of the electorate. To avoid obsolescence, the Democrats and Republicans themselves will have to harness technology to build cohesive blocs of voters from splinter groups. ``In essence,'' says Democratic consultant Dane Strother, ``it's back to the future.''
Scenario 2025: Broken Edge. Oliver Sparrow is the Director
of the Challenge!Forum. He is the author of many publications, including five
books which were written for the Forum, as well as an interactive CD-ROM and
this web site. He is also known for his groundbreaking computer-based presentations,
which are given to audiences totalling well over ten thousand people in the
course of a year.
This scenario examines plausible trends in global security, global economy,
corporate governance, and global geo-political infrastructure. Sparrow writes
about a highly fractured world, stretched under the envelop of a broken environment
where resources are becoming scarce. Scenario in the 21st Century: 2025: Broken
Edge: "The century began with a series of bad frights, but the enforced
rebalancing of the stock markets in the industrial world was, essentially, completed
by 2005. Issues of terrorism had faded into the background after the resolution
of at least some of tensions in the Middle East, a firm global hand from the
US and its partners, and an effective international clampdown on suspect sources
of finance. Agricultural commodity prices improved as subsidised food exports
from the wealthy world were reduced, and a gradual pattern of lowered tariffs
present good prospects for the economies of the middle income nations. Japan,
too, was seen to be taking strategic steps to reform. The effective insolvency
of its banks had been taken in hand, and lending to business had begun once
more to flow. Japanese interest rates returned to meaningful rates of return,
the Yen strengthened and huge volumes of Japanese savings were repatriated.
European interests, alarmed by the halving of German asset values and by the
weakness of and evident rigidities around the Euro, by the implications of enlargement
and the facts of demographics, had begun an equally painful process of public
re-evaluation of the overall project. Important sources of misdirection and
sclerosis had, therefore, begun to be taken out of the world system. In addition,
however, these processes had four important outcomes. The first was an abandonment
of hitherto sacrosanct rigidities - of agricultural protection and subsidy,
of formal and de facto protection of labour and of the blanket reduction in
monetary degrees of freedom that came with the Euro. Second, increasingly genuine
regionalisation in decision-taking and in monetary policy led to prospects of
specialisation. Local economic engines and flexible trimming of money supply
to meet local needs. Overall discipline was confined to a longer term, rolling
model to which each had to accede. A new cadre of local political talent, linking
the European to the local in a meaningful manner, began to make itself felt,
setting limits on what national-level political traditionalists could maintain.
Third, the unimpeded flow of low-cost labour from the recent accession to the
EU together produced a dramatic sense of dynamics. Fourth, management teams
that had hitherto been protected from international capital disciplines by state
assistance, legal and regulatory protection were increasing subject to enforced
change. Confidence - in the future, in governance, in global security - had
been somewhat restored. The United States and its NAFTA partners found themselves
in a fine environment. The enormous investment in information technology of
the previous century was open to exploitation at low cost. Upward pressure on
the dollar remained a powerful force, but improved conditions in the rest of
the industrial world somewhat relieved this, as did a booming home market. The
ocean of technical capability that decades of investment in science and technology
had already created was supplemented by an endless flow of astounding breakthroughs.
US dominance in the security environment was essentially assured by its successes
in what was once called the war on terrorism. With exceptional instances of
dissent, the other industrial powers fell into line with procedures which they
saw to be in their best interests. A consensus was developed around the management
of areas of strategic importance, such as the resource-rich regions. There was
broad agreement around the techniques, legal basis, agency and funding of interventions
both here and in the chaotic regions of the world. A set of criteria were developed,
covering the priority of such an intervention and the ability of the industrial
powers to deliver a timely improvement in the situation. Interventions were
increasingly planned, based on such criteria, rather than undertaken in response
to crisis and media pressure. In particular, international companies were increasingly
required to act as arms of the state in this respect, reporting intelligence
and making (often subsidised) dispositions that assisted in stabilisation plans.
Thus the choice of location for a plant might be expected to take into account
the need to stabilise - provide income and employment - in a region. Not all
firms accepted these strictures, but pressure on US-domiciled companies was
intense, and many found themselves carrying both a burden and walking with a
powerful friend. Non-US companies found themselves at a loss in access to intelligence
- to name but one area - and so had to balance independence of action against
the advantages of compliance. The effective hegemony that developed over the
first ten years of the century had the ability to damp virtually any sources
of conflict that threatened the world's equanimity. A series of international
agreements were developed under the auspices of the WTO that greatly reduced
impediments to trade. Each of these were based on the view that economic growth
was ultimately good for all, and that impediments to this - to trade, to the
free flow of capital, to information flows and to access to knowledge - were
all matters to be set aside. Gestures were made in this legislation to environmental
issues, to impact management in poor nations and to workers' rights, but the
speed of events made these issues hard to implement fully, and the entangled
nature of state and commerce led to many special cases being developed where
extralegal issues were paramount. The upshot of this was, however, that industries
which were open to international integration - such as everything from vehicle
manufacture to broadcast entertainment - therefore underwent swift consolidation,
often doing so around US corporate frameworks. The situation in the 2008-2010
period, during the second business cycle into the new millennium was, therefore,
a strikingly positive one. Economic growth was reaching levels seen only in
the post W.W.II glory days. True, there were more or less acute issues of demographics
in some nations, but technology was enabling people to work from their homes,
and markets were supporting the assets needed for old age. Extremely tight IT-based
systems of guest-worker management permitted the flow of many low-wage earners
to come into the industrial world from elsewhere in the world. Economic growth
was providing the taxes needed for a vast range of public works, including care
of the elderly. Health technologies promised to at least manage the leading
ailments of old age. This period of "fast forward" had, however, concealed
some profound problems which the pragmatic, fragmented world of 2010 was poorly
suited to handle. National statistics for important regions were, in effect,
as poor in 2010 as they were in 1998, when the Asian collapse showed nations
to owe up to ten times as much as had been thought. In the rich world, political
institutions had changed little in several generation, and the sheer complexity
and the modern environment made effective decision-taking a matter of compromise
and opportunistic horse-trading, usually amongst the articulate. Capital markets
continued to pursue their zero-sum game with the same avidity as before, but
with sharper tools and shinier teeth. Business managers were pressed ever-harder
for results, and having to perform in a world where life cycles were shorter,
and where the difference between the best and the inadequate was next to marginal.
Corporate governance was typically weak in the international environment, despite
sweeping US-based regulation after the scandals of the millennium's end. Much
multinational business activity was anyway effectively conducted "offshore"
to the highly regulated regions. The mix of interests forced on the international
companies by the war on terror provided further instances where misdirection,
hidden income flows and false accounting developed unchecked. These objective
problems were, however, as nothing to the social issues which had been building
up, partly in the industrial world but chiefly beyond it. Periods of prosperity
may provide the platform from which discontent finds a voice. Stringency, by
contrast, focuses minds on essentials. Education and the media provide the means
to articulate discontent. In the wealthy world, and elderly traditionalist group
find fast change and technological wizardry increasingly alienating. All low-skill
jobs that can be taken by low-wage immigrants or exported to low-wage areas
are now inaccessible to the poorly educated, and a further cadre feel aliens
in their own societies. "World" cities had achieved populations which
were now of predominantly foreign extraction - as opposed to having a third
to a half of their population made up of foreigners, as was the case at the
turn of the millennium. Some citizens who relished pluralism and a cosmopolitan
environment enjoyed this, but a significant voting majority felt that their
country has been stolen from them. A potent thread of rejectionist politics
developed in Western societies, taking erratic and unexpected action against
paradigms of modernity. Commerce, and leaders who embrace the cutting edge,
were frequent targets for more or less orderly interventions. These issues were
minor, however, when compared to what was happening in the world at large. An
elite had been doing well, a middle class had been straining every sinew to
keep up, but a significant fraction of those living even in countries which
are doing well - and virtually everyone in the countries which had not accepted
the world order - had been seeing their world becoming less understandable,
less orderly and above all, less a place in which they felt at home. Traditional
institution rely on tacit rules, on trust and on reputation. These were being
diluted or eroded by a fluid, urbanised society. Traditional sources of authority
derive their power from consent, trust, unquestioned tacit rules, undisturbed
continuity and from their ability to deliver. Don-client networks are a common
form or traditional authority in almost all developing countries. These consist
of nested pyramids, where one "cell" consists of a powerful figure
- the don - and a layer of clients. Clients owe the don respect and obedience,
and the don provides them with opportunities, a source of power in the event
of conflict and a means of dispute resolution. Each person of power is a client
in their own right in a higher pyramid, and they appeal up the structure in
order to access the power that they need in order to help a client. Dons who
are unable to do this are deserted, so they must never be seen to be weak or
to back down. Such structures maintain many societies where national civil mechanisms
cannot reach. They can be weakened when, for example, clients can see opportunities
elsewhere, due to their improved education and general levels of wealth. Equally,
they can fail when economic circumstances or new, more virile networks make
the system unable to deliver advantage and retaliation to offence. In such circumstances,
civil systems must take over or all order is lost. Old informal structures are
mitigated by long-term relationships, a certain noblesse oblige and by a mutual
interest. The new raw systems that replace during rapid economic and political
shifts are short-term, invariably exploitative and unilateral. As with Russia
after the fall of communism, Mafia and corrupt elites crush the middle classes
and exploit the society in ways which are identified less with the lack of institutions
and good public governance than with the external forces of 'modernisation'.
Rural systems of order are destroyed and replaced by urban exploiters, whose
relationships with the unskilled, inarticulate people whom they control is merciless.
The result is distress, bewilderment, the destruction of well-understood order
and its replacement with mutual predation. Around four billion people lived
in such societies in 2000. Around 750 million lived in the industrial nations,
with their impersonal and transparent institutions. Something over one billion
lived in an equivalent environment. They did so either in nations which were
in fact undergoing industrialisation, or else by living on conditions where
they were were able to transcend local limitations through their elite status.
The numbers in the former industrial nations remain static or declining, with
many moving into a post-industrial "gradualist" state that has already
been discussed, in which change is resented. By 2010, however, the rise of the
global consuming classes was everywhere apparent. This group greatly outnumbered
the wealthy people in the rich world. They may have lacked the national consolidation
of the former elite - and they certainly lacked it individual purchasing power
- but they nevertheless became a formidable force in the world. By 2010, therefore,
seven billion people lived in a very different world from that of 2000. The
old, rich world remained extremely powerful but was becoming a degree arthritic.
Its writ, its paradigm and its insights continued to set the agenda for much
of the world. This said, its institutions were stretched by the ad hoc and pragmatic
way in which complexity had been managed: entwined systems had been ignored
and compromises stitched together to meet urgent needs. International agreements
had been as much imposed as they had been negotiated. The interests of the new
consuming class had begun to shift away from the generic acquisition of possessions
to issues of individual identity and individuation. In addition, the pursuit
of local identity, of "roots" and ethnic identity had become strong,
driven as much by brand differentiation amongst marketers as by the yearning
for stability. States that were host to large numbers of these consumers found
that issues of external and consumer debt, inflation and economic instability
grew and, as a consequence, the 2010 period was marked by increasing numbers
of bank collapses and currency crises in these emergent economies. As already
indicated, state reporting of statistics remained dismal and few knew the scale
of the problems that were building up. Behind this was, however, a growing political
movement that resented the hegemonic dominance of the old industrial powers,
and which was more than a little fearful of the forces - technical, social,
industrial - which they had so casually unleashed. Two billion people continued
to live in absolute poverty, but half of them were now urbanised and consequently
accessing more education and insight. Around three billion were seeing their
traditional world turned upside down, and not usually to their advantage. They
resented this bitterly and, as the European underclass turned more or less sequentially
to religion, Luddism, socialism and totalitarianism during the nineteenth and
early twentieth centuries for an explanation of the world and a relief from
it, so deep currents of explanatory bitterness ran everywhere through the world
during the 'teens of the century. Where the pace of change was seen to be excessive,
so challenges were mounted to local governance, and many states fell to populist-rejectionist
movements. As such separatism spread, so it found common cause and so, too,
it discouraged the talent, capital and predictability which were necessary to
cope with the alarming external world. Rising oil prices both permitted Arab
separatism and created crises for the poor and indebted nations.
The scene was set for the reactive phase that has so marked subsequent history.
The downturn in the business cycle in the industrial world served to trip many
of the over-extended middle income states, each affected by high commodity and
energy prices, internal demand and over-borrowing. Sprawling systems of outsourcing
found themselves affected by this, such that industrial world companies experienced
sharp problems. A stock market readjustment - overdue after the boom of the
late 2000s - exposed significant corporate irregularities, and an estimated
15% of gross book value evaporated off world bourses in the course of two months.
Confidence was heavily undermined and two years of drifting and economic misery
affected the lives of billions of people. This proved the catalyst that had
been needed to bring the many rejectionist movements into practical alignment.
The "war on terror" had been coupled with ten years of military and
economic-diplomatic pressure on states that encouraged illegal trade or violence.
This had made the phenomenon of terrorism chiefly a local phenomenon, in which
only small organisations or those with little to lose tended to engage. Its
orchestrated return came as a considerable surprise to most, and a confirmation
of what they had always believed to many. The world was an unsafe place, the
foreign was dangerous, it was best to bolt the door and be safe at home. Coupled
to the now-apparent economic instability of the industrialising nations, the
political prescription seemed inevitable: to pull supply chains back to 'safe'
environments and, wherever possible, to rationalise global manufacturing activities.
This, of course, worsened conditions in the industrialising countries. It confirmed
many in the poor nations in the views that they might already have formed as
to the capricious and selfish nature of the old, wealthy countries. The poor
nations were, of course, hurt even more, yet oddly heartened by the palpable
failure of the wealthy nations. In the rich nations, many systems that had relied
on continued economic expansion and buoyant markets - such as, in particular,
the support of the elderly population - were now seen as unsustainable. A concerted
howl arose from the dependent population, aimed at much the same targets as
the criticism from abroad: at over-fast change, at modernism, to demonise individual
fast-buck merchants and the like. As turbulence and violence became a feature
of the poor and industrialising world, so the isolationist tendency - to slow
down, to slow 'them' down, to keep them out - became a strong political voice.
As this seemed a pragmatic move, and one which fitted with the commercial motives
of the time, at least some major states moved in this direction. Trade weakened,
agreements were not honoured, institutions were challenged and ignored. A growing
tide of lawlessness developed in the poorer, chaotic states. This has its impacts
in the wealthy world in strangely indirect ways. Public health was allowed to
slip in the poor nations and so disease control and disease reporting lapsed.
Epidemics of novel viral diseases swept through crowded and poorly sanitised
cities, and thence to the susceptible wealthy world. Dangerous and forbidden
technologies - such as manipulation of human foetuses during pregnancy in order
to alter the child's capabilities, or the use of xenotransplantation - quickly
found homes in these nations, serving foreigners. Kits that allowed the choice
of a child's gender during conception became cheaply available, having formerly
been banned. The reason for this ban now became apparent, as four out of five
births in wide regions of central Asia were male. More pertinently, perhaps,
intellectual property rules were flouted and many knowledge products on which
western companies relied for their existence were sold globally on networks.
Environmental and human rights accords, laboriously enforced during the boom
years, were swiftly dumped. In effect, the world had gone at integration too
fast and with too little concern for the systems, institutions and social habits
which this needed. Angry groups now huddled behind their respective barriers,
shouting insults and tossing rocks. Wiser voices began to council a new approach.
It has not been easy to deliver this, and it is far from clear how we are to
progress from 2025. Technological potential is unsurpassed, and a huge cadre
of capable people now exist. It is issues such as trust, continuity and reciprocity
that are at a premium. The period of aggressive entry into other people's domestic
problems is past us, yet we are at a loss how to tackle the managerial and institutional
issues which harm billions in the aggressive, violent and rejectionist countries
with which the world is peppered. Africa appears irredeemable, even after the
abating of the HIV epidemic. Central Asia is a complex network of warlord-dominated
enclaves, and the areas between the Mediterranean and India seem intractably
withdrawn. China and India are holding together as political entities with the
gravest difficulty. Coastal China, southern east Asia and Latin America are,
in their very different ways, relatively bright spots nut none are of themselves
the engine of growth that is needed to return vibrancy to the rather gray scene."
Back to the
Future: Final Report on Planning and Designing Legislatures of the Future.
Max K. Arinder, executive director, Mississippi Joint Legislative Committee
on Performance Evaluation and Expenditure Review (PEER). Journal of the American
Society of Legislative Cerks and Secretaries. Volume 6, Number 2 Fall 2000.
This Mississippi task force, working on alternative futures of the legislature, decided to structure its first attempt at scenario building around three critical dimensions or axes. "First is the status of direct democracy. The public's desire for direct versus representative democracy cuts to the most fundamental issues facing future legislatures: Will the press for direct democracy made possible by technology and the ascendance of the desire for the ultimate in democratic expression continue to prevail? A second axis of uncertainty is the increasing complexity of the legislative environment and the continually shifting balance between political self-interest and respect for the legislative institution. A third axis that the task force factored into our thinking is potential changes in the demand for services. Will the trend of getting government out of the lives of its citizens prevail or will demand for government services increase as needs emerge? These three axes of uncertainty provided a promising framework for exploring how changes in social, technological, economic, environmental, and political environments will affect the legislature of the future." Scenarios in the 21st Century: Alternative Political Futures for the Legislature in 2025: Scenario 1) The Harassed Legislature: "Technology has made it possible for direct democracy to be a highly viable alternative to the more traditional representative democracy; the fabric of the institution is beginning to show the strain." Scenario 2) The Circumvented Legislature: "This legislature has passed that invisible point where direct initiatives have eclipsed the more deliberative representative processes and traditional legislatures are weakened and on the decline as the public's choice for problem solving." Scenario 3) The Traditional Legislature: "This is the task force's nod to the possibility that the contemporary legislature has evolved sufficiently to allow it to be competitive in vying for public confidence. Able to rise to the challenges of the future as it has arisen to the challenges of the last twenty-five years, the traditional legislature is alive and well." Scenario 4) The Diminished Legislature: "This is the result of a loss of interest and/or confidence in the democratic process itself. Under this scenario there is an abdication of responsibility to strong political personalities that have been allowed to assume relatively unchallenged leadership positions. The diminished legislature is a move away from democracy as we now know it."
The
Government of Australia 2020 Project.
Ian Fergusen. The Government of Australia 2020 Project, Working Paper, 2003.
Officials and thinkers in the country of Australia came together for a trends
discussion of Australia to 2020. These global scenarios, with Australia in context,
follow.
Scenarios of the 21st Century. The Government of Australia 2020 Project. Scenario 1) A Trip to the Precipice: "The global situation deteriorated from 2005 onwards. Following the Middle East turmoil, the world was polarised into two camps: those for and those against the US. The international system was paralysed by a succession of religious and civil wars and by conflicts over resources. In the face of unbearable uncertainty and anxiety, there has been a rise in authoritarian (ideological, theocratic or militaristic) regimes that are tolerated by people tired of chaos. This group of states includes 9 of the 18 nuclear capable states. Global institutions to manage international politics, the ecosystem and economic systems have failed to eventuate. Issues that need global cooperation are politicized in win-lose scenarios. The individual nation-state has lost any effective voice in the global turmoil. The international situation is mirrored in Australia. The system of governance is fragmented, disjointed and indecisive. There is no coherent approach to complex problems across levels of government. Federal government is seen as remote, elitist and unaccountable. Buffeted by international trends and forces over which it has no control, it lacks direction and vision, and is responsive only to vested interests. The situation is exacerbated by a hostile Senate that refutes government programs. Partisanship has entirely replaced any sense of open dialogue and debate. Civil liberties considered sacrosanct at the turn of the millennium have been eroded in the face of the on-going terrorist threat. The internal identity card contains pictorial and electronically stored information and a location chip. Under the guise of security, the administration has the power to track and control every individual if it chooses to do so. The press is failing the citizens, inundating them with specious information, creating exaggerated awareness of issues but no understanding. The level of sensationalism necessary to attract attention fuels extremism. State regimes are weak and failing. They claim to serve, but fail to acknowledge dissent, difference or diversity. Lacking a values framework and unable to finance the demands of their electorates, they jump from one issue to another, grasping at ideological straws and transferring blame to other levels of government. Massive cuts to the public sector bureaucracies have placed inordinate pressure on those remaining to deliver services. The level of corruption in local authorities is at an all-time high. Across the board public figures appear to lack the courage to stand up to business interests or minority pressure groups. At community level there are sharp divisions on generational and socio-economic lines. Older folk bemoan the emergence of hedonistic, consumerist and individualistic youth with few civic virtues. Segments of the population such as marginalized rural groups and long term unemployed feel disenfranchised and are easy targets for radical cults and neo-fascist groups. The clear inability to cope is polarizing political parties and fostering extreme positions. People vote for authoritarian figures hoping for decisive leadership but fearing a lurch towards a self-serving dictatorship. We never really appreciated how fragile democracy was until we looked over the edge…" Scenario 2) Our Preferred Future? "It is 2020. I am immensely proud to be an Australian citizen. It's amazing how far our country progressed in the first two decades of the century. A much improved international situation provided a suitable context for growth and prosperity. Domestically, we found that once "our preferred future" was articulated, it was not really that difficult to start shaping it. Internationally, the emergence of China and India has tended to balance US hegemony and European domination. The expansion of the world economy created strong demand for Australian resources. The restructure of the United Nations to reflect the new realities has given it added credibility. Institutions to monitor international governance, economics and trade are more effective. Other institutions to address human rights and the ecology are progressing, albeit slowly. In Australia, the constitutional changes of 2010 were nowhere near as traumatic as some predicted. With minimal changes the transfer to a Republic was accomplished and a Bill of Rights adopted. The structure of government is nominally the same as last century but there are some marked differences in the way it operates. Alterations to the system have been widely debated and systematically introduced. Governments at all levels are working against a backdrop of a longer term vision. It facilitates the setting of international and domestic goals and priorities for service delivery. Governments are generally smaller, more concerned with governance, setting guidelines, boundaries, standards and policy, rather than with running businesses or enterprises. The one exception is public utilities which have been reclaimed following the collapses of the first decade. Problems of accountability and responsibility were addressed by putting the authority with the knowledge and the ability to implement. This resulted in the heterarchies we have today which operate in a matrix pattern across government. Political parties are less strident. The party organisation is more an administrative support structure than an ideological platform. Parliaments more closely reflect the demographics of the wider community. For example, in the Queensland State parliament, 40% of politicians are female and the average age is 37. The accountability and responsiveness of elected representatives is independently monitored and published. Now that ethical leadership is acknowledged and rewarded, a wider range of candidates are stepping forward to make a contribution. Politicians are now more likely to consult and listen rather than talk and tell. Communities expect that Government will exploit technology to work in partnership on major issues and optional solutions. The latter have to be cost-effective, sustainable and consistent with the long term vision. People have the opportunity to provide input on public spending for health, education and infrastructure development. At regional level there are integrated plans covering transport congestion, urban planning, environment renewal, and safe and supportive communities. Seamless services are delivered from government centres "badged" with federal, state and local government logos. Citizens can make direct contact with their local, state and federal representatives from these locations. The exploitation of the South Australian 'hot-spot' energy resources has been a boon for the economy, assuring a cheap stable supply of renewable energy for the next 200 years. The development of high temperature super-conducting technology facilitates energy distribution to the East coast. Excess energy is being used to create on demand hydrogen fuel production. Wind and solar energy industries, water farming, tree farming (rather than clearing), native animal farming (less need for the European herds of the past) abound. This is a time where justice: social, environmental, moral and legal prevails over economic rationalism and trade. Australia is again an optimistic and prosperous society, globally acknowledged as a bell-weather democracy." Scenario 3) Something Different? "It is 2020 and "Government" is nothing like it was last century! Commentators identify four discernable levels of government: supra-national, national, state/provincial and local/municipal; but the categorization is outmoded. It is no longer appropriate to focus on the levels and machinery of government, rather the focus should be on issues, the community and the function of governance. Authority and power has shifted. International governance structures are now more powerful than most nation-states. National and state governments still have a role, but it is significantly reduced. Our own Federal government, like most others, has ceded authority in many fields to international bodies and has significantly reduced in size. It still deals with issues of national security, the economy and sets domestic policy priorities; but the vast majority of service provision is decentralised and outsourced. The pattern is repeated at State level. Legislatures there are losing ground to virtual regional and issues-based governance structures. Citizen initiated referenda have been introduced and there is a plan to hold simultaneous referendums in all states in 2022 to seek to abolish state governments and to formalize the introduction of regional governments. (It is unlikely this move will be successful, but it indicates how far we have moved!) At local and regional levels, it's all about communities. Best practice governance models have applied technology to open government, to align it closer to the grassroots, to allow citizens access to decision-making and to decentralise service delivery. Physical and virtual communities form around issues to guide elected representatives on practical, sustainable solutions that conform to the long term vision. Politicians can serve for only three terms, but they are better paid than twenty years ago. Their oath of office attests they are independent of any political party and that they will abide by the published code of conduct. Our democracy has demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt…" Scenario 4) More of the Same? "Dear Khim, We are very much looking forward to your return to Australia. Those last 17 years have really sped by! When you come back, you won't have too much difficulty adapting - Australia has not changed much! Despite the PM's talk at the UN last week, we are really a bit player on the international stage. Once upon a time we "punched well above our weight", but a couple of poor decisions last decade fixed our international reputation for a long time to come! Economically things are not flash. Even though Australia is firmly established in a trading bloc - it's in an increasingly hostile trading environment. You will have seen that the multi-lateral trade talks ramble on. There's little hope that they will lead anywhere soon given the entrenched international positions on world trade. Just looking at the newspaper this morning, the Federal government scene is still the same. There are too many "professional pollies" - many have never been employed outside politics! Policy and political fortunes are still developed in secret. Question time is a joke. The adversarial two party system (which consistently degenerates into personality politics) is increasingly tiresome and irrelevant - but still it persists! Every government since the turn of the century has faced a hostile Senate - this becomes the excuse for inactivity on the big issues. Here at State level they blame the Feds for a lack of resources - but there is no doubt the bureaucracy is pretty inefficient. "Big ticket" items like education and health are no better administered than at the turn of the century. They persist with "quick fix" solutions rather than confronting powerful lobby groups and addressing the fundamental problems. Dealing with anything that crosses departmental boundaries or levels of government seems to be beyond them. It is so frustrating! There doesn't seem to be any mid to long term planning in the public sector. The bureaucracy bungles along reacting to the latest political issues and newspaper headlines. Structures have been established for community consultation and to encourage grass roots democracy. There have been some successes, but there's a lot of tokenism and the mechanisms are usually exploited by organized lobby groups who are not always representative of community concerns. The average standard of living is still pretty high, but the group of "have-nots" is getting bigger. Older folk like our parents' generation are getting nervous. Increasing numbers rely on Government support funded from a dwindling tax base - but you probably picked that up from your dad's letters. That said, there seems to an abiding faith in the system of government (in parliament and elections), in individual rights and tolerance, a 'fair go', and in social justice for all citizens. A more multicultural Australia continually tests these values, but invariably they come out on top. Also on the plus side, support for environmentally friendly energy and transportation systems is finally beginning to bite, but it will be a long time before we recover from the excesses of the past. I suppose the one saving grace is that politicians have to face the electorate every couple of years, but there is little difference between the two major parties, and the minor parties and independents tend to be single-issue based. The best we can hope for is an occasional change of government to at least prevent corruption becoming endemic. Well Khim, must close now. Tell Danny to write if you see her again and let us know your arrival details and we shall be there to meet you…" Scenario 5) Some Thoughts - Worth A Thought? These Snippets do not Form a Coherent Story, but may be Worth a Thought: "The world has moved beyond governments. In 2020 people have formed communities which barter goods and services amongst each other and across the globe. People have no need to go to workplaces as they have skills to produce something that makes life sustainable in their own backyards, and this is what they exchange for other goods and services. Life is indeed different. Every species in the Australian environment gets a vote before every person gets a vote. People have access to the landscape and can walk from one side of the country to the other without encountering a "private property - keep out sign". Deep rooted (salt busting), drought tolerant genetically engineered Australian species such as Acacias are our principal source of carbohydrate. There are no roads as personal transport has become airborne. Health care is delivered free over the internet. Every rooftop has a bioreactor producing oil for cars photo-synthetically. The Australian Republic's federal government is responsible only for strategic and nationwide policy and service delivery in Defence, Foreign Affairs, Security (internal and external), the Environment, Trade, and Strategic Economic Planning. Policy dominates the federal agenda. The 2015 watershed election and establishment of a Republic also saw the federal government's right to collect taxation, move back to the States. Government has redefined its role and begins to implement social systems based on the laws of natural systems. The old economic rationalist model is abandoned. Success is no longer gauged by GNP and economic criteria. The new models are based on an understanding of cells, genetics, Chaos and Complexity theory. The Government sees itself as part of an adaptive system, giving form and structure to the variety of social systems which self-organize around it. Governments mediate, facilitate and act as catalyst for social systems operating on a human scale - small intimate systems creating bigger systems and so on. The government agencies are akin to Messenger RNA providing feedback to governing bodies, so they can adapt and respond (like genes) providing what is required to keep the systems operating. Government agents become the catalysts, enabling social "reactions" and helping to build the capacity of communities to become self-organizing, functional and sustainable, both socially and ecologically. All systems operate in accordance with natural laws, with care for the environment, relationship building and adaptability as primary drivers. Governments elected by popular vote are no longer partisan. They become self-organized bodies the members of which are chosen for their intelligence, humanity and capacity for visionary leadership.…and every form of government acknowledges the cultural industries. In fact culture is now a major concern of government given that bureaucrats are now largely redundant due to our wonderful trans-national fuzzy logic networks developed to perfectly administer taxes, education and welfare grants. Government has realised that the loyalty of citizens depends on their appreciation of culture and every individual has the right to artistic development and education. Everyone expects to have musical skills and performance or craft skills. Political performance is judged by the delivery of these services. Artists are a respected elite - except for actors who have been replaced by computer generated holo heroes on the daily 'real life' holo virtual reality shows.... Since the extension of the Presidential Emergency five years ago, things are already improving. In the last weekly address on both channels, armed forces chief General Saltas, said the President has been happy to extend his appointment for life and the armed forces can now concentrate on further improving the happiness of the people since the criminal gangs have now been permanently defeated in the Western and Northern Territories. On the question of government, he repeated that there is no reason to return to the "bad times" when criminal gangs told lies to the people and stacked the old parliament with the non-progressives and atheists. There have been no complaints about any aspect of government for several years - proof, he said, that the Progress Australia programme has the full backing of the people. Then the screen went blank. A few people got together and created a new criteria for voting for political posts. The criteria was long, but the idea was that if a person had several of the qualities they would be better suited to hold office than their predecessors. This idea went out over the internet and eventually started catching on - mostly in small villages or towns. Some of the criteria were: personal insight, ability to laugh at ones self, background and experience with crisis handling, an understanding of systems behavior, ability to admit mistakes and learn from them and articulate the learning to constituents, personal value system etc. This idea was not taken up in the US, but was implemented in other countries, particularly those which were developing, moving into more democratic forms and away from negative dictatorships. They still wanted a dictator, but they wanted a mature, father/mother or grandmother/grandfather figure for whom they could vote...Though the local / regional government sector was rationalised into regional local authorities which increased their service delivery impact, they lost the power to tax or rate their constituents to the States. People-centric services such as education and health are now wholly controlled at the local (regional) level and funded from both state and federal levels."
Futureland:
Nine Stories of an Imminent World. Autor: Walter Mosley, 2001, Warner
Books
From story entitled Little Brother, page 205
In this work, author Walter Mosley describes a future in which society
predominately employs an automated justice system.
The “court” consists of a screen; the judge, juries and lawyers appear
on screen only and are compressed personalities – that is composed of dozens
of dead and living judges, juries and lawyers. They believe they are superior
to “real” living beings because they are composed of many bodies, have
a superior retrieval system and a greater overall mind.
Witnesses appear only on screen as well, and are subject to neural
links for “fact finding” and lie detector tests, both used to insure that
only the factual truth is presented to the court. Meanwhile, defendants
are restrained via automated chains and are subject to neural cameras planted
in their brains.
Using the automated justice system, trials take only 10-20 minutes
and there is never a backlog of cases in this society’s legal system.
Only the rich can afford “real life” judges, juries and lawyers who
might understand and consider non-factual variables such as circumstances
and motivation.
Possible
Scenarios for Columbia’s Future. Author: James L. Zackrison, National
Defense University, Institute for Strategic Studies; Last update 9/30/2002
Taken from website: http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/books%20-%201999/Crisis%20What%20Crisis%20Eng%20Oct%2099/cris2.html
In this document, Mr. Zackrison describes four possible scenarios for the future of Columbia: Idealistic, Inertia, Guerrilla Victory, and Dirty War.
The Idealistic Scenario: describes a time when the leftists, paramilitaries, drug mafias and the civilian government have reached a balance of power. Efforts to eradicate corruption, the lack of justice, and the drug businesses succeed. Lack of drug profits means insurgents cannot fund wars and within ten years of the agreement, peace and stability are achieved. The government is now free to focus on the job of governing.
The Inertia Scenario (the muddle through scenario): “ ‘Muddle through’ implies reaching a livable consensus among all the participants, in this case one that keeps the state together….muddling through may be …. recognition of the currently de facto partitioning of Colombia.” According to the author, in this scenario, the symptoms of the country’s instability, such as drugs, human rights violations, and corruption, are not addressed and status remains the same in the future as it is today.
The Guerrilla Victory Scenario: In this scenario, Columbia emerges as an authoritarian Marxist state with an economy based upon the legal cultivation, production, and export of cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and hash oil. An economic decline results; violence increases, and intense governance and social instability occur. Citizens with the means, flee the country in droves. Columbia’s instability bleeds across boarders causing problems with Venezuela, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Panama. Relations with the U.S. are terminated, and U.S. assets are seized and nationalized.
The Dirty War Scenario: Ruling non-governmental elites align with military and police forces to enter into a “war of extermination against the FARC and ELN” and eventually the drug mafias. There is “a dramatic period of loss of life” and civil liberties. After a period of military rule, “the military would then cede the reigns of government to the civilian elites, who would form a new government to capitalize on the new stability.”
North
Korea. Author: Christopher Salter, 2003, Chelsea House Publishing
Chapter 8, Images of North Korea in the Future (page 95).
In this scenario, author Christopher Salter discusses a possible future for North Korea. He sees changes in the future in North Korea’s economic activities due to North Korea’s Special Administrative Zone of Sinuiju and the people’s exposure to the benefits of free enterprise. He envisions cities showing greater foreign influence from Japan, China and other nations, on the streets, in shop windows, and on billboards. And he sees an increase in agricultural activity, more intense farming, in the areas surrounding the cities
Salter also believes friction will continue between Japan and North Korea because of the deep history between the two; and between North and South Korea “as long as interactions … remain erratic.”
Not
A Drop To Drink? A History Of Water: 2000 – 2020. Author: Oliver Moor
http://www.hackwriters.com/notadroptodrink.htm
(note: no information on author or date of document)
Oliver Moor sets forth four scenarios in this article, all of which describe future conflicts over water.
2005: Turkey diverts water from the Euphrates to irrigate farmland, thereby reducing the water available to Iraq by 50%. Iraqi response is firepower. After a three week period, the water supply to Iraq is restored but it is too late to save the country’s crops and famine and rioting occur.
2009: Zimbabwe refuses to release water from the Kriba dam to Mozambique, which is suffering from a drought. War is averted thanks to intervention by the South African government and its promises to supply Zimbabwe with irrigation technology and Mozambique with desalination plants.
2013: Sea levels rise to such a degree that thousands of miles of coastline in Pakistan are flooded. By 2016 the water has not receded and the lands are now considered permanently lost to the sea.
2015: Water from the Indus is not usable for irrigation. Pakistan is suffering from a water shortage and is disputing with India and China; neither will assist Pakistan by sending water from their Himalayan ice fields. Russia is assisting, shipping water to Pakistan from its “newly accessible deep-crust aquifers” but that assistance is not enough to adequately meet Pakistani needs.
Post 9/11 Scenarios: The Future of Global Security. Innovative Technology Partnerships, LLC. INMM Southwest Regional Chapter, Annual Meeting, Taos, NM, USA, May 16, 2002
Post 9/11 Scenarios: The Future of Global Security was developed to promote discussion among global leaders about the post 9/11/2001 world. The four scenarios summarized from this document are: Struggling Through; A Chance for Hope; World War III; and Return of the Dark Ages.
Struggling Through: In this scenario, the world is in shock after a nuclear “incident” has happened in the US. The act, perpetrated by terrorists, has left the country devastated morally and economically, over the loss of over a million lives and the “indefinite evacuation of a hundred-plus mile stretch of the East Coast.” Terrorist activities in the US and around the world are propelling extraordinary global cooperation; in particular, an international UN nuclear force. Education is considered the key to fighting the terrorists: “the world must commit to take an entire younger generation and provide enlightenment and education to bring the children away from the influences of the 20 th century hatred.” While a difficult process, the continuing global terror threats are proving to be sufficient motivation. It is hoped “the Malta Global Strategy Toward Peace would begin to see results before a cell obtained sufficient weapons to create the feared Global Discontinuity.”
A Chance for Hope: This scenario depicts a time in which Palestine
has become a state, with official status from the UN and defendable borders.
“It had made a much more significant change than even the proponents had
imagined” and surprisingly, resulted in the dissolution of the terrorist
networks it had originated. Anti-Americanism has subsided. The US has launched
Operation Freedom - the overthrow of the Iraqi government - and the U.S.
was viewed with renewed admiration. “The completion of Bush-Putin I, and
the signing of the Huen-Wilson-Sakarov dismantlement treaty gave hope to
the world that it had stepped back from the brink of destruction. The New
United Nations quickly gathered all of the necessary resources to serve
as the Overseer, and many believed that there indeed was a renewed Chance
for Hope.”
.
World War III: The war on terrorism has been won. But as many
had feared, resentment over US presence in the countries of Middle Eastern
allies has grown and “the linkage, real or implied, to Israel began to
take its toll.” The first exchange of the Millennium War, or World War
III as it is known to some, has occurred. The use of nuclear weapons has
resulted in million deaths but there has not been a full exchange of stockpiles.
“Some magic threshold in the social conscience of warring nations could
not be crossed, and each exchange was tempered.” However, in the second
decade of the millennium, the Musharraf government is overthrown and the
Pakistani nuclear stockpile is now in the hands of a fundamentalist faction.
The world is preparing itself for how World War III might ultimately play
out.
Return of the Dark Ages: The date of the nuclear attack on the US, 3/29, is now be another number etched into America's history. Following “the event” a different lifestyle emerged: what were once "gated communities" had become "armed encampments.” The US government is focused on the security of the country’s industrial abilities and resources and is not exercising its influence in global conflicts. Global conflicts “festered, and now were on the brink of disaster - the Koreas, India-Pakistan, Israel-Arab, China-Taiwan, not to mention local civil wars too numerous to count where factions had secured weapons of mass destruction with impunity. Some estimated 100 million had died since 3/29, and the nuclear winter theory was being tested in a real life experiment.” There are, however, discussions of hope, indicating that most, if not all of the fundamentalist enclaves had been distinguished.
The
Conflict Environment of 2016: A Scenario Based Approach. Author: Andrew
F. Krepinevich, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
www.csbaonline.org
The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is a non-profit policy
research center than specializes in promoting innovative thinking about
defense planning and investment strategies. The following illustrative
scenario considers the future security environment of Easy Asia in 2016:
“The last 20 years have seen a gradual, yet significant change in East
Asia’s security environment and in the military balance of power.
China is now the region’s dominant great power, with the largest economy
and biggest military. Economically, however, considerable autonomy
is vested in the provinces. The Chinese people seem satisfied to
defer political freedom as long as the nation’s strong economic growth
offers the prospect of continuing the marked improvement in their living
standard. Twenty years of declining defense budgets has seen the
U.S. military presence in the region diminish over time, to the point where
the leadership of long-time allies like Korea (reunified in 2002) and Japan
publicly debate whether
they need to take a more active course in providing for their own defense.”
According to the scenario, tensions in the conflict environment escalate
in the summer of 2016, when Chinese leaders receive intelligence regarding
Taiwan’s political and military initiatives towards the U.S., Korea and
Japan. “On September 20, 2016, Beijing declares a maritime and air exclusion
zone extending 1,000 kilometers out from Taiwan and the Spratly Islands.
Any ship or aircraft found within the zone will be liable to destruction.
Chinese forces begin laying mines near Taiwan’s major ports, and Beijing
announces that Chinese ballistic and cruise missile batteries have pre-targeted
all of Taiwan’s major ports and airfields. Faced with this challenge,
the [U.S.] president asks the Pentagon for options on how to break the
Chinese blockade if negotiations with Beijing fail to produce a diplomatic
solution.”
Sunset
at Dawn. Author: Aisha Said
www.hackwriters.com/anewpeace.htm
Grounded in the events of September 11, 2001 author Aisha Said creates
a scenario that demonstrates how in 20 years, new anti-terrorism laws and
strategies in America have tackled the problem of domestic security while
simultaneously generating a barrage of new challenges. “While most people
around the world will remember the horrific attacks of September 11, 2001
as the darkest day of the year, for me I could still feel the heat of the
smoke that clouded my life. Not only did I lose my husband but also
my daughter was born premature and stateless. For the next 20 years
I tried to return to my life in America but new laws kept pouring out to
deny my baby and me our right of abode. Twenty years after the creation
of the [Office of Homeland Security], resulting in billions of dollars
of over-budgeting, America still lives with the fear that there are many
trained killer waiting to strike. New security strategy based
on the principle of Low Tech and High Concept titled Freedom of Non-Association
adopted i
n 2019 has only succeeded in creating a society of uneasy calm.
In this new program, people are encouraged to stay off the streets ad transact
businesses and schooling via electronic media instead of physical travel.
TV and radio jingles are used to “advise” people that they are safer at
home than on the streets. The idea is to monitor the dew on the move
via satellite and arrest any suspicious persons.”
Seven War Scenarios Every Investor Should Consider. Author: Michael Brush
Written shortly after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, this article considers seven scenarios regarding the U.S. war on terrorism and its impacts for investors. The list of potential scenarios include: 1) Osama bin Laden is captured; 2) the war escalates; 3) Afghanistan turns into a quagmire; 4) there are more terrorist strikes; 5) dissent arises in the U.S.; 6) the war on terrorism destabilizes the Middle East; 7) U.S. attacks spread to Iraq or elsewhere. Although the scenarios are limited to short descriptions, each is followed by advice regarding the business ramifications from experts in terrorism, international politics and financial markets.
The
Future of Crime. Author: Chris Lang
www.predicitionscience.org
In this engaging scenario author Chris Lang weaves together an array
of trends and emerging issues including privacy rights, law enforcement,
potentially ubiquitous technology and social interaction to produce a detailed
look at the future of crime. Scenario excerpt: “It’s 2010. Jeff was
just returning from a two-hour sailing excursion. As he walked up the dock
he faced a large white sign with red letters. “You are Entering a Secure
Zone,” it read, “An Identity Scanner is Available for Your Convenience.”
In his case, the scanner wasn’t merely a convenience-it was an outright
necessity. Chizuru would freak-out if he ever left the zone without subordinating
his accesses to a scan. She worried enough about him as it was. Thus, every
time he returned from sailing, he had to have them scan him. Sometimes,
he even had to pay them for it. He had to make sure they recognized him.
They probably recognized him already, but he had to make sure. “They” were
the security companies’ microprocessors. They watched him thr
ough cameras hung from buildings, cameras hung from vehicles, cameras
worn by people, etc. Most of these sensors were necessary anyway just to
make sure robots didn’t bump into people, pets, debris, and so forth, so
a naïve observer might not have suspected that any single entity was
behind all of them. But there was. He, like everyone else, was being followed.
They saw him at home; they saw him in his car; they saw him get on his
boat; and, for all he knew, they might even have watched him by satellite
while he was on the water. He hoped they did. He hoped they watched everything,
especially each other. Checks and balances…checks and balances…gotta make
sure Big Brother doesn’t break the law, right?”
Public Governance in 2020. The Economist, April, 2001.
This article examines governance and OECD country relevance to public confidence in current forms of government, then extrapolates to a scenario in 2020. It offers three sets of thoughts. In the first section, there is an assessment of attitudes towards public governance and an exploration of the social roots from which these grow. The second section assesses one specific issue, the route to policy formation, doing so in the light of what is known about the knowledge economy. The paper closes with a view of where this may take us. In 2020, it becomes a world of high complexity in which coordination and active citizenship will be demanded if issues of true inclusiveness and representation were to work.
Scenario: Governance in 2020. “The next decades create immense complexity in the tasks of government, in the machinery of representation and option generation. People will become more complex in their expectations and in their connections. Economic integration will demand excellent, differentiated policy choices. The consequence is a vast and untidy task of co-ordination, and a considerable intensification of the drift to subsidiary government. Smaller and more inclusive nations in 2020 seem further down the track than are the larger nations, or, those which have relied on a combination of centralisation and market decision-taking as a solution to complexity. In 2020 it is realized that humanity needs to to create the future, or live with what evolveed from contemporary muddle. In 2020, thought is seriously given as to how to engage all in society without simultaneously creating the very logjams that these institutions developed to circumvent in the early 21st Century.”
Security and Power in 2020. Author: Richard Worsley Tomorrow Project
The Tomorrow Project gathered primary information, surveys, and interviews about security, key issues, international institutions, self-determination, and armed conflict in the world of 2020. After conducting these extensive surveys, the Tomorrow Project developed a set of very profound scenarios. The following is one that is of special interest.
Scenario: Industrial World in 2020: “In 2020, we live in the industrial world, which has around one billion increasingly elderly inhabitants. New entrants will perhaps swell this to 1.2 bn by 2020, and this by-then frankly old population will be embedded in a world of around 8 billion by 2020. It will still create about 85% of the wealth, as compared to the poorest 2 bn, who generate less than 1%, down from nearly 3% in 1960. Technology will be widely disseminated, and the communications of 2020 can only be guessed at. In essence, anyone who wants to connect to any information source, group or people or person will be able to do so at minimal cost. Self-evidently, this is a fast-paced, hectic world. When I was in India recently, CNN Asia commented on how "a billion people now lived on amphetamines, staying awake for 20 hours a day whilst striving to become rich." Billions in 2020, connected as never before, begin to stand on each others' toes, requiring trans-national regulation, policing, politics and power projection. Agreements on everything from human rights to the environment, from intellectual property to public health requires us to manage our commons. Some states will object, some will lose control. The potential for harm is large, the potential for muddle even higher.”
September 11th: Chapter One of Which Scenario? Author: Jay Ogilvy, Global Business Network.
In this article, Jay Ogilvy sets out to challenge our forsight in the aftermath of September 11th. He notes that alternative scenarios “can help to frame these acts so we can make sense of these events and act accordingly.” In this age of terrorism, using the scenario planning technique for short-term insight can be just as useful as scenario outlooks to the medium and long-term.
Scenario One: Jihad: “A dark world indeed. “Paris, July 12, 2003: Today’s attack on the Eiffel Tower continues the string of international incidents. If only the Americans had listened when Chirac insisted that it wasn’t a "war". Like many a commander in chief who lost a conflict by confusing it with the last war, the Americans thought they could mobilize their military might to defeat the terrorists. They sent their ships and planes toward Afghanistan. They did their best to smoke out Osama bin Laden to catch him on the run. They tried desperately to find a battle they could win . . . but there was none. The enemy was elusive, invisible, dispersed. America wanted action, retribution, and the punishment of the perpetrators. Surely the massed might of America would be sufficient to find and eliminate the enemy. So America went to war. Trouble was, Chirac was right: It wasn’t really a war. At first it looked like Bush "got it." There was talk of "a different kind of war." The first strikes were "surgical," very little "collateral damage." But just when the Americans were celebrating their "victory," the second one hit, the atrocity at the World Series. Enraged by that diabolical choice of targets, America lashed out with less discrimination. You want terror? We’ll show you terror! And a terrible attack rained down from the heavens over Afghanistan. And that was just what Osama bin Laden wanted—an escalation from crime to war. Pictures of maimed women and children helped to unite the Islamic world against America. What had begun as an exchange of carefully focused rapier thrusts now turned into a brawl between the military might of America and every Muslim, every anti-globalist, every disenfranchised child of poverty, both within and outside the borders of the U.S. Throughout 2002, massive air strikes by the U.S. were followed by terrorist attacks in the least likely places—a shopping mall in Toledo, a high school graduation in Austin, a rock concert in London, the assassination of a governor, the kidnapping of a group of business executives. By the end of 2002 the terror had created massive paranoia. People stayed home. Restaurants and theaters remained empty. Businesses shut down. The Dow dipped to triple digits. Like the "war on poverty," like the "war on drugs," this "war on terrorism" looks like it will drag on and on. How can it end now that the war has escalated while one side remains invisible?”
Scenario Two: One World: “A future worth working for. “New York, July 12, 2003: Today ground was broken for the new World Trade Center. It won’t be as tall as the old one, but its reach will be even broader. In the weeks and months following the attack in 2001, the community of great nations got bigger. United by the common cause of uprooting terrorism all over the world, countries like Russia and China acquired an increased respect for the rule of law. Pakistan and Syria came in from the cold. The stick of American power loomed large, but the carrot of peace and prosperity loomed larger. Focusing on global "crime," America refrained from indiscriminate attacks and relied instead on special forces, covert operations, and some very good investigative police work. As a result, America managed to walk the fine line between appeasement on the one hand, and on the other a show of force that would have united the Islamic world in a jihad against the U.S. Walking that fine line wasn’t easy. People were impatient. The pain was deep. But this crime against humanity led to humane responses: Not only heroic rescue efforts and an outpouring of generosity, but also a soul-searching quest for what is most important in life. No sympathy for the criminals. After seven long months of searching, they were found and punished. But the patient precision of their defeat saved the world from decades of descent into senseless bloodshed.”
Scenario Three: Uprising: “Offers an interpretation based on economic rather than political interests. “London, July 12, 2003 As if the pattern were not already clear, today’s attack on the London International Stock Exchange drove home the lesson: The terrorists are targeting the infrastructure of international capitalism. Their enemy seems to be corporatism everywhere, not just in the U.S. Back in 2001 the signals weren’t yet clear. September 11 was an American tragedy, and the response came mainly from the U.S. The attack on the Pentagon drew the U.S. military into the conflict, but in hindsight it appears that the terrorists were provoking a military response more in order to unite the Islamic world than to hurt the U.S. Further attacks—the series of package bombs sent to many corporate headquarters, the frying of the computers at the Hong Kong exchange—made it increasingly obvious that it was not so much the U.S. that was under attack, but big business. Sovereign states were not set up to defend multi-national corporations. Nor is the United Nations equipped to fight for companies rather than nations. For lack of any appropriate "ministry of capital defense," global corporations are now calling for some form of global governance that can mobilize against terrorism. It is odd to see executives who had been eager to "get the government off their backs" now calling for global of governance. What lessons can we draw from these three very different scenarios? First, the real meaning of current events may take time to emerge. Second, know your enemy, and your enemy’s real enemy. Third, for citizens and politicians, it is important that we not unite the Islamic world by mistaking a crime against humanity for an act of war. For corporate interests, it is important to realize that there is no escaping politics. Getting national governments off corporate backs won’t eliminate the problems that the public sector is there to solve. Ignorance and poverty will haunt the global stage even as we combat them locally, and new institutions may be necessary to create a truly global public sector.”
The Return of the State. Author: Peter Schwartz, Red Herring Magazine, March 2002.
Mr. Schwartz discusses the victory of the market over the last two decades. But now we are entering a period of unsurety with the collapse of Enron, the creation of a new government agency – the office of Homeland Security, and the turnaround in helping California deal with the energy crisis due to the failure of deregulaton. Similarly, in Britain, there are growing doubts about the effectiveness of the market. Evidence can be seen in many OECD and developing nations that the public role in providing infrastructure is seriously being reconsidered. Mr. Schwartz makes the case that, “what may (actually) be emerging is a new era of governance--not a neat hierarchy of national and global institutions, but rather, a more complex, tangled network of political and economic entities that enable and constrain one another.
Scenario One: Victory of the Markets: “In this world, we are seeing just a blip in the inevitable victory of the market. We may live in an era in which increasing complexity will continue to overwhelm the ability of public systems to manage and adapt.”
Scenario Two: A New Synthesis: “We might be witnessing a new synthesis of the public and the private, neither unfettered capitalism nor a return to Stalinist bureaucracies. Rather, it may be about new modes of governance made possible by informing and bringing together the governing and governed in new ways. In such a scenario, overlapping and densely connected political and economic institutions at national and global levels compete and co–perate at the same time to create a constrained but powerful system of global governance.To date, the best global example of this trend is the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, which developed from the actions of a single person using the Internet. The result: a coalition of nongovernmental organizations successfully pushed a global treaty signed by nearly all the major governments of the world (except the United States) to end the scourge of land mines. We may see an era of emerging global governance and a more balanced power relationship between public and private interests.”
Transnational Threats to NATO in 2010. United Nations Development Program (UNDP) 1998 European Symposium, National Defense University. Winston Wiley, Associate Deputy Director for Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
This paper focuses on the most likely transnational threats in 2010. In lieu of the events of 2001, we have the responsibility, as futurists, to re-examine some of the best foresight reporting over the past decade This paper is one of them. Toward the conclusion of this report, the UNDP described a set of "wild card" scenarios. One of the key results of this Symposium, was the agreement that the most direct threats will likely come from terrorism, threats to NATO countries' information systems, the build-up and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and international drug trafficking and organized crime. Key wild cards that could have significant implications for the NATO threat environment include the emergence of new radical ideologies and the potential for conflicts on NATO's periphery. “Transnational threats will probably loom large for NATO in 2010. …The threats will vary depending on a number of factors, many will be inter-related, and most will be hard to grapple with and will require cooperation with other nations and international institutions.”
Terrorist and Information Systems Threats. “The international terrorist threat to the NATO area will likely remain high, if below past record levels. It will originate largely from outside NATO member-states and will be increasingly global as groups expand their transnational infrastructures. The United States and to a lesser extent other parts of the Alliance probably will remain prime targets. Terrorism in 2010 probably will be committed more by groups than by states--which are more susceptible to diplomatic and military pressure. These groups will be diffuse and to a large degree undeterrable because they will be "true believers." They will represent diverse ideologies and causes, and many will originate in the Middle East. The extent of terrorist activity is likely to vary depending on several factors: The Middle East Peace Process. A just, equitable peace would decrease the terrorist threat, while a deterioration in the peace process would likely spark greater terrorist violence.”
Other Regional Conflicts and Instability. “The Algerian crisis already has spurred terrorist attacks in France. Instability in the Balkans, former Soviet Union, and North Africa could spawn similar violence in the NATO area. Information Warfare by States. The information warfare threat to NATO from hostile states will also have matured by 2010. Like terrorist groups, countries will have a more thorough understanding of the potential payoffs--as well as challenges--afforded by attacking or otherwise manipulating an adversary's information systems. Many potential adversaries recognize the growing dependence of NATO countries on information systems for both civil and military activities. The governments of several countries have information warfare efforts already under way. Some of these efforts almost certainly are targeted against NATO information systems.”
The Threat From Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) “In 2010, NATO allies will face the prospect that a hostile state, terrorist group, fanatic religious cult, or any other extremist group will use, or threaten to use, nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons against coalition forces or civilians. Potential challenges come from: Russia. Russian WMD and WMD programs will remain of concern to NATO, especially given Russia's continuing economic and political turmoil. Other States. Several states in the Middle East, for example, will have the potential to threaten NATO with WMD by 2010. Iraq. Although Iraq's development and production of WMD has been interrupted as a result of UN resolutions and sanctions, Iraq retains documentation and expertise in the nuclear, chemical, and biological realm, and has probably retained some chemical and biological warheads and SCUD missiles. Also, it has retained or is rebuilding elements of its WMD infrastructure. For instance, Baghdad could use experience in maintaining its 150-km Ababil missile program to support a longer range missile effort. Libya. Libya's chemical weapons capabilities (it employed CW against Chadian troops in 1987) are far more advanced than its research and development efforts in nuclear or biological weapons. Progress has been stunted in these areas by the lack of foreign assistance. Libya has a small SCUD B force which has a 300-km range and, in 1987, fired a conventionally-armed SCUD at an Italian island. Libya hopes to acquire or develop a longer-range missile capable of reaching Southern Europe. Iran. Iran's current delivery systems (SCUD B/Cs and CSS-8s) have a range of up to 500-km, and Tehran is seeking to produce or purchase longer range missiles. Additionally, Iran is attempting to acquire fissile material for nuclear weapons development, produces and has used chemical agents, and possesses the expertise and infrastructure to support a biological weapons program (it may have small quantities of agent available). Syria. Syria may be producing chemical weapons, and possesses the required infrastructure to support a biological weapons program. It may also be trying to develop advanced nerve agents and pursue research and development of biological weapons. It maintains SS-21, SCUD B, and SCUD C missiles with up to a 500-km range.”
Terrorism. “One of the most dangerous threats to NATO will in 2010 be terrorists' use of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear materials to inflict casualties or cause fear or massive disruption. Terrorists are more likely to use chemical and biological weapons than other unconventional weapons because they can be relatively easy to make and deploy. Moreover, a major psychological barrier to using them was crossed in 1995 when Aum Shinrikyo released a chemical agent in the Tokyo subway. To obtain a nuclear weapon, terrorists would have to steal, buy, or build one, and in each option terrorists face formidable obstacles. The high damage potential, however, makes nuclear terrorism a constant, albeit remote, threat. Two factors would increase the likelihood that the NATO states, military forces, or citizens would be threatened by WMD: New NATO Roles. New peacekeeping or other nontraditional roles assumed by NATO--either within Europe or beyond its periphery--may place coalition forces at risk from intentional or inadvertent exposure to WMD. NATO military superiority may have actually increased the threat of WMD use, since less developed countries or extremist groups may feel driven to develop and use WMD to achieve the desired impact, deter conflict, or prevent retaliation.”
Nuclear Smuggling. “Nuclear smuggling from the former Soviet Union can result in accelerated nuclear weapons development in hostile states. It could also expose the coalition to hazards such as radiological weapons, or exposure of the civilian population to smuggled materials such as cesium-137, strontium-90, and cobalt-60. These items could be used to contaminate business centers, government facilities, or transportation networks. Russia and other former Soviet republics are the most likely, but not only, potential source of such materials. South Africa and Brazil also experienced thefts or accidents involving nuclear material.”
The Narcotics and Organized Crime Threat “The interrelated threats of narcotics trafficking and international organized crime will also seriously challenge the NATO area in 2010. Narcotics. The extent of narcotics trafficking and consumption in NATO countries in 2010 will depend largely on demographics and the effectiveness of counterdrug efforts. Heroin and cocaine will remain drugs of choice, but the expanding production, distribution, and consumption of potent and affordable synthetic drugs in Europe will compound the problem. The alliance may face friction over changes in attitudes toward drug use and treatment, variations in criminal penalties, and scarcer and less effective law enforcement and judicial resources from newer East European members. The international financial system, particularly in NATO countries, will continue to be the destination for billions of narcodollars annually. Heroin trafficking routes into Europe will shift further from Turkey and the Balkans to Russia, the Baltic states, and Eastern Europe. The alliance will be challenged to ensure that new NATO members by 2010 have sufficient resources to effectively counter the flow of narcotics and to prevent the further corruption of state institutions by narcotics organizations. Spain and Italy will be less prominent entry points for Latin American cocaine, as Spain in particular continues it exemplary interdiction efforts, and the trend toward shipments directly to Eastern Europe becomes the primary route of choice. Despite an aging population among traditional NATO members, drug consumption is unlikely to have diminished, and may even increase markedly if large numbers of younger immigrants enter the region. The infusion of dirty money from the sale of drugs into the financial institutions, businesses, and property markets of NATO countries could damage both the national and international economic climates.”
Organized Crime. “The proliferation of links among international criminal organizations, coupled with the globalization of business, will provide expanded opportunities for the movement of illicit drugs, weapons, and money, and illegal immigrants. National law enforcement officials will face greater obstacles in targeting transnational criminal networks unless the alliance bolsters avenues of cooperation. Latin American cocaine traffickers, the Italian Mafia, Russian organized crime, and Nigerian criminal syndicates will have established greater cooperation in drug trafficking, arms smuggling, counterfeiting, and money laundering into and across Europe. They will gain efficiencies by specializing in their most experienced and profitable areas of operation and by exploiting the more vulnerable borders and less-regulated financial systems in the region. The entrenched presence of Eurasian organized crime in Eastern Europe and its international reach will continue to hinder the development of market-based economies and democratic political institutions unless significant headway is made in fighting corruption and enacting and enforcing legislation to counter these crimes. The sheer volume--trillions of dollars annually--of illicit proceeds from these global criminal organizations could present a threat to national economies from price and stock manipulation to banking fraud. These groups also may use their massive wealth to gain controlling interests in strategic economic sectors and buy high-level political influence. Unless NATO nations ensure that international standards exist for emerging financial technologies-cybercurrency, smart cards, electronic wallets, Internet banking-criminal organizations likely will attempt to exploit their anonymity to launder proceeds from illegal activities, break encryption codes, and counterfeit these instruments for financial gain.”
Other Transnational Threats International Economic Challenges.
“Notwithstanding the current financial turmoil in East Asia, the world
economy will be much larger in 2010 than it is today, primarily because
of faster growth in China, Latin America, and Central Europe. The spread
of information technology, increases in international trade and investment,
and demographic shifts within countries will bolster global integration
and disperse the balance of economic power. Most of these changes will
demand greater cooperation among NATO countries, while some will test the
alliance's cohesion: Chinese Power. The NATO countries probably
will face new challenges as China's commitment to economic and institutional
reform enables it to grow faster than many of its regional neighbors and,
as a result, to emerge as a much stronger and more influential world economic
and military power. Oil Disruptions. NATO countries also
are likely to face a heightened threat of major oil supply disruptions
if, as we expect, a larger percentage of the world's oil supplies come
from the volatile Persian Gulf region. Barring an unexpected surge in non-OPEC
oil production, the share of the world's oil supplies coming from the Persian
Gulf probably will rise about 10 percent between now and 2010, in part
because of increased demand from faster growing economies in Latin America,
the former Soviet Union, and China. Tight Military Budgets.
Rapid economic growth outside of the North Atlantic community and budget
shortfalls in many NATO countries will increase the likelihood of a large
shift in the global allocation of military expenditures, potentially boosting
the relative military and political influence of countries such as Russia,
Taiwan, India, and China. Many Western European countries will have a harder
time financing military expenditures as large aging populations, shrinking
labor pools, and declining birth rates pressure already cash-strapped governments
to boost social welfare outlays on dependent populations. If NATO defense
outlays decline, and if non-NATO countries maintain the ratio of military
spending to GDP at 1995 levels, the NATO share of global defense outlays
will fall over ten percent by 2010. Central European Tensions.
The NATO countries may confront increased strains in Central Europe if
growing income disparities within the region boost tensions between the
haves and have nots. We expect economic disparities between nations in
Europe to be significantly skewed in 2010 as reforming countries like the
Czech Republic and Poland boost economic growth and attain significantly
higher living standards while others--such as Bosnia, Romania, Bulgaria,
and countries in Central Asia--fall behind.
Financial Strains. Tensions over international financial rules could
strain the alliance. International financial linkages will have grown in
size, importance, and sophistication. By 2010, if not sooner, the North
Atlantic countries along with other economic powers are likely to face
the task of shaping a new international monetary system that will reduce
the potential disruptions of financial flows on the global economy. As
with previous attempts at multilateral monetary reform, forming new rules
governing international financial flows and currency adjustments is likely
to generate potentially serious tensions among NATO members.”
Illicit Migration Threat. “Illicit migration will continue to plague NATO in 2010 as migrants fleeing overpopulation, poverty, natural disasters, and conflict in developing countries seek better standards of living in wealthier NATO states.”
"Wild Cards" That Could Alter Threat Scenario “Given the dramatic changes of the past decade, a number of lower probability but high impact scenarios are also conceivable in the years ahead. Among them are: Russia. A Russia that steps away from its current direction of reform would probably overshadow the above transnational threats. Intra-NATO Strains. Strains among current or future NATO members that erupted, or threatened to erupt, into conflict could disrupt the Alliance. Other Conflicts. The outbreak of a chemical, biological, or nuclear confrontation in the Middle East, South Asia, or former Soviet Union would have far-reaching political, military, economic, and environmental ramifications. Radical Ideologies. The taking hold in one or more NATO countries of extreme ideologies--anti-materialism, Islamic extremism, militarism, or some new unforeseen "ism"--could weaken NATO from within, just as the onset of anti-Western ideologies outside NATO could threaten the Alliance. Economic Crisis. A spillover of financial instability from any source over the next 12 years could slow world growth and plunge NATO countries into recession. Terrorist Sponsors. The terrorist threat picture could change by a radical new regime outside the NATO area or, conversely, a shift in policy by a country such as Iran now supporting terrorism. Information Warfare Risk. The risk would grow markedly and sooner if a country set as a priority developing a significant offensive information warfare capability or if protective technologies failed to keep up with offensive ones. Illicit Migration. The threat would rise rapidly with a surge in one or more factors that drive it, such as a major economic downturn, natural disaster, or regional conflict on Europe's periphery. Climate Change. A sudden and extreme climate change--such as global warming by 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit--would affect agriculture and energy use and have other potentially wide-ranging effects on NATO countries.”
Implications of Transnational Threats for NATO “Short of these more radical scenarios, as NATO moves toward 2010, its overriding challenge probably will be to strike a balance between maintaining an adequate conventional and nuclear military capability to counter aggression against any Alliance member and strengthening its ability to meet the above more likely range of transnational threats.”
Conclusion “In sum, many of the threats to NATO that have become more pronounced since the end of the Cold War are likely to grow further in the years ahead. While the exact threat scenario is difficult to project, such threats as terrorism, threats to information systems, WMD proliferation, and international narcotics trafficking and organized crime will probably be prominent, and a number of other challenges could appear on the screen with little notice. Moreover, the combination of transnational threats is likely to be more complex and challenging for NATO to manage.”
A Revisit of Vision 2020 for Malaysia. A revisit of a world reknown scenario from the book, “Off the Map – An Expedition Deep into Imperialism, the Global Economy, and Other Earthy Whereabouts”. Author: Chellis Glendinning, published in 1999 by Random House, Canada.
In the book, “Off the Map - An Expedition Deep into Imperialism, the
Global Economy, and Other Earthly Wherabouts", the author questions the
nature of imperialism - the dominant political force on the planet for
centuries. Chellis Glendinning “charts the course of empire across
countries and continents and on into individual minds, hearts, and bodies.”
The author reveals imperialism's legacy, questioning how the map was altered,
empire as map, and what is "off the map". A huge section of the book
is devoted to "What is Globalization?" Globalization:
In the future, "…the map is altered. The gold-etched designs and tall ships
and roaring lions disappear from sight. Even the opaque maps of the
classroom fade into obsolescence. New maps are made, state-of-the-art,
lines and numbers, computer simulation, digital coordinates. A trillionth
of a meter, 3 million light years away. Cyberspace curved space 750
Kilobits per second--- measuring, modeling, predicting, printout the world,
the Earth, the universe. In the 21st Century, the making of maps,
it is something different; map making, it is something the same." The author
traces many countries and future visions of those that have gained and
are gaining independence from imperialism. The author reviews the world-renown
Malaysia 2020 Vision (see annotation in this bibliography); acknowledging
Malaysia as a success story after independence from Great Britain after
World War II: “Malaysia, an "undeveloped" country, stepped into thorny
terrain. "It had been mowed over in everyway, from the psychological
to the economic, and it was now attempting to unfurl its flag into a world
busily restructuring into a subtler form of the same old bag. .... "But
take Vision 2020: Now here's a plan.....A plan to transform Malaysia, with
its paradisiacal rain forests, and rice paddies and rubber trees, into
the planet's most seductive techno-business park. The Multimedia
Super Corridor would link the immense new Kuala Lumpur International Airport
with two newly constructed cities -- a digital friendly capital called
Putrajaya and an InfoTech center named Cyberjaya -- all knit together
by fiber optics and managed by a GATT_ ready code of cyber-laws. Good-bye
rubber tappers, basket weavers, and thatched villages. Hello CEOs, Banana
Republic-clad info workers and one-bedroom apartments. The land would
be coated in concrete. Super freeways would glide into the horizon like
boulevards at Versailles. There would be corporate headquarters galore,
computer-smart campuses, borderless marketing plexus, and national cyber-cards
to access everything from IA to overdue video-rental fines. What cattle
are lift would inhabit patches of pasture like one-bedroom condos and graze
on plastic shopping bags. Vision 2020: its being thrust down the
throat of reality by Malaysia's prime minister, Dr. Mahathir bin Mohammed,
who has already distinguished himself by supplanting the rubber-trees of
the north to build a modern multiversity, erecting the world's two tallest
spires, building superhighways where only footpaths existed before, jamming
them with the indigenous-build Proton, and jacking up the gross national
product from $34 billion in 1980 to $123 billion in 1995.
It's happening. "
Pentagon See China’s Forces as no Foreseeable Threat to US. Pentagon Report Commissioned by Congress – “Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act”. Public Law 106-113.
China is modernizing its armed forces to counter military threats from technologically superior enemies, but ''significant shortcomings'' in its weapons and training will leave it unable to challenge the United States for ''an indefinite period of time,'' according to the Pentagon report. China's military modernization efforts are increasing its ability to threaten Taiwan, especially with long-range missiles. But the study concluded that the People’s Liberation Army, is limited in fighter aircraft and amphibious ships, would not fare well if ordered to invade Taiwan in the near future. The study analyzed the Chinese military, Chinese planning, strategy, potential “electromagnetic warfare” – attacks on computer and communications networks, and, intelligence findings of China studies of the 1991 Persian Gulf War and NATO’s war against Yugoslavia. The report describes scenarios in phased timeframes as an estimate of Taiwan’s ability to sustain air, sea, and ground operations in the face of a China attack. Short term (2000-2005) “T