Three Middle East Peace Scenarios; study conducted by the Millennium Project
Anti-Terrorism Scenarios; study conducted by the Millennium Project
The Future of American Politics. Richard A. Segal Jr., Executive Web Developor for Steve Forbes, founder and pioneer of Forbes Magazine. Richard S. Dunham, senior writer for Business Week.
Back to the Future: Final Report on Planning and Designing Legislatures of the Future. Max K. Arinder, executive director, Mississippi Joint Legislative Committee on Performance Evaluation and Expenditure Review (PEER). Journal of the American Society of Legislative Cerks and Secretaries. Volume 6, Number 2 Fall 2000.
The Government of Australia 2020 Project. Ian Fergusen. The Government of Australia 2020 Project, Working Paper, 2003.
Futureland: Nine Stories of an Imminent World. Autor: Walter Mosley
Possible Scenarios for Columbia’s Future. Author: James L. Zackrison
North Korea. Author: Christopher Salter
Not A Drop To Drink? A History Of Water: 2000 – 2020. Author: Oliver Moor
The Conflict Environment of 2016: A Scenario Based Approach. Author: Andrew F. Krepinevich
Sunset at Dawn. Author: Aisha Said
Seven War Scenarios Every Investor Should Consider. Author: Michael Brush
The Future of Crime. Author: Chris Lang
Public Governance in 2020. The Economist, April, 2001.
Security and Power in 2020. Author: Richard Worsley
September 11th: Chapter One of Which Scenario? Author: Jay Ogilvy
The Return of the State. Author: Peter Schwartz
The African Time Machine. WIRED November 2000. Institute for the Future
Scenarios for Russia: From Short-term Greed to Long-term Need? Heinrick Vogel
Wired Scenarios of BioWar. Ed Regis, WIRED Magazine
Enemies Go Nuclear. Waller Douglas
Database Nation: The Death of Privacy in the 21st Century. Garfinkle Simpson
Anti-Nuclear Physicians Publish Doomsday Scenario
Nuclear Scenario Alarming to Think Tank. David L. Marcus
Bracing for California’s Changing Landscape – Scenarios of California in 2020. Richard Thau
The Shape of the Future. Ramo Joshua Cooper
War Scenarios. World Press Review, Vol. 44, No. 6, 1997.
Beyond Yugoslavia. The Boston Globe . March 30, 1999 A9.
Science Fiction to Futuristic Scenarios. The Orange County Register December 13, 1999.
History Moving North. Robert Kaplan/ The Atlantic Monthly, Feb. 1997.
The Coming Anarchy. Robert Kaplan. The Atlantic Monthly, February, 1994.
Air Force 2025. Department of Defense. United States Air Force, 1997.
Three
Middle East Peace Scenarios;
study conducted by the AC/UNU Millennium Project
The study and full text of the scenarios is available on this website at: http://www.acunu.org/millennium/ME-Peace-Scenarios.html
Scenario 1: Water Works--Water crises led to water negotiations that built trust that peace was possible and boosted political negotiations. Momentum increased with new youth political movements, the "Salaam-Shalom" TV series complemented by Internet peace phone swarms, tele-education in refugee camps, the Geneva Accords complemented by parallel hardliner negotiations, joint development with Arab oil money and Israeli technology, participatory development processes, new oil pipelines from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, and a unique "calendar-location matrix" for time-sharing of the holy sites. UN troops enforced agreements with non-lethal weapons, and new forms of international collaboration cemented the peace.
Scenario 2: The Open City--The new Pope challenged Jewish and Muslim religious leaders to solve the question of governance in Jerusalem. Politics, power, and media all played a role in reaching a proposed solution that was ultimately codified in a resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly. The threat of a fatwa ended the suicide bombings; when the bombings stopped, so did the Israeli retaliatory missions. Education of young Muslims gradually changed; schools that once taught hatred moderated. On the question of refugees, the Israelis were concerned about being overwhelmed and outvoted by Palestinian immigrants in their democratic society. The issue promised to be inimical but a compromise restricted the right to vote to people who had lived in Israel for more than seven years. Finally, a historic proposal came to the UN from Israel-it traded guarantees of Israeli security for establishment of a permanent Palestinian state.
Scenario 3: Dove-"Dove" was a secret, contested Israeli plan to de-escalate and unilaterally renounce retaliation in order to demonstrate that Palestinians were aggressors. At the same time, a secret debate was taking place among extremist Palestinians on whether to escalate to more lethal weapons. Those against escalation said "If we desist, Israel will be seen as the aggressor." So each side had reasons for wanting to stop but seemed frozen by circumstances. The tide changed when 27 Israeli pilots said they would not participate in future air raids, initiating the "Refusnik" movement. What happened next was like a chess game. The Israelis got a guarantee that the bombing would stop; the Palestinians got an agreement that the Israelis would withdraw to the pre-1967 borders. A series of non-aggression treaties and agreements stated that Israel had a right to exist. Jerusalem became an open city, with its own democratic government. Immigration quotas were established. Foreign capital flowed into the area. New businesses were established, and unemployment among the Palestinians dropped sharply. It was a self-fulfilling cycle: the move toward peace sparked the environment for peace.
Anti-Terrorism
Scenarios; study conducted by the AC/UNU Millennium Project
The study and full text of the scenarios is available on this website at: http://www.acunu.org/millennium/antiterrorism.html
ABSTRACT
Shortly after the September 11th attacks, anti-terrorist scenarios
were requested on-line of participants on listserves of the Millennium
Project of the American Council for the United Nations University and
the World Future Studies Federation. Nine full scenarios were offered
and these were analyzed to identify and rate policies that might be helpful
in achieving peace and stability. Factors involved in the rating
were: apparent plausibility, effectiveness in eliminating terrorism
if implemented, and lack of downside potential. This work was posted on-line
with a further request for comments, modifications to existing
scenarios and added scenarios. Many comments were received. This paper
report contains the results of the feedback process.
The principal scenarios were:
ESCALATION: A long war involving attack and counter attack through biological and nuclear saber rattling. The poppy fields of Afghanistan are attacked with Agent Orange to dry up a principal source of terrorist income. But it is a long war. (Gordon)
COUNTER MINDSET: Political Islamisists saw secular Western capitalism
as reducing everything to a commodity, reinforcing individualism and greed,
and arrogantly running financial and political rules of the world to American's
benefit. They believed that Islam’s mission was now to set the world right.
The strategies followed by the international community addressed this mindset.
Television, radio, software, magazine, music materials were designed to reinforce
the idea that this was a war against terrorism and promoted the restoration
of the right and proper image of Islam. A "Global Partnership for
Development" gave reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists.
In short, this was an “intellectual arms race” (Glenn)
ROOT CAUSES: The US led military war against terrorism
failed to end terrorism. The US proposed a different global strategy involving
the provision of minimal standards of health, education, services
and housing, worldwide. After a short period of expansion and association with
other social radical movements, terrorism started to lose ground. A strong emphasis
was placed on education by nations of the world to reduce inequality in access
to work opportunities and to attain an acceptable standard of living on a global
basis. (Gutierrez)
SOCRATIC JUSTICE: The US used all of the powers that the UN could offer. The US ratified the International Criminal Court and encouraged other nations to do so. The US brought captured terrorists and criminals to the Court and then focused on new modes of international cooperation. (Gordon)
THE WILD WEST: US and Allied military strikes led to endless
escalation in a war that apparently was won, but over time sped up the
process of decline, with terror meeting terror. The CIA got back
into business on a big scale. Nations already poor became poorer.
(Inayatullah)
THE PEACEFUL COWBOY: The US sought means to cooperate with other nations to deal with terrorism in a more contained, targeted way, although a great deal of wild west posturing continued. There were three parts to its strategy: improved internal security; enhanced intelligence; and economic action.. Eventually, protection against terrorism has become almost a habit. (Barton)
THE NEXT YEAR: An invasion of the Taliban areas results
in the execution of the Taliban- held UN aid workers. This provides additional
moral support for more military strikes. The US considered
withdrawing support for Israel unless they reduced their military severity.
Casualties mounted. Bin Laden was apparently assassinated by one
of his men but more likely by Alliance special forces. (Rogers)
FORTRESS USA/OECD: Borders were closed, locked down. This led to general impoverishment and the loss of innovation that accompanies immigration. in the short run. It provided the appearance of security, but in the longer run, poverty resulted. (Inayatullah)
ESTABLISHING A GLOBAL CIVIC ETHIC: Key international NGO’s
formed a global council that believed that the major impediment to lasting
peace and global security was the lack of a global civic
ethic. A World Public Service was formed in which volunteers took on
global ethical management tasks in international conflict resolution. Their
strategy: potential combatants have to agree to mediation and
to implement the outcomes thereof. Failing this, sustained ongoing
sanctions would follow. Comprehensive military action overseen by a global
peace force would be a last resort. (Wildman)
COLONIALISM REBORN: After the US destroys the Taliban regime, internal conflicts in Afghanistan cause local rioting and escalating conflicts. bin Laden’s death (or capture) creates enthusiasm in the US and unrest in the Muslim countries. Massive deliveries of assistance for Afghanistan are provided to the country in the form of food, quick rebuilding of hospitals, others services, and infrastructure. In the Middle East, the US is forced either to put pressure on both parties to find a compromise, or to accept complete failure of the peace process and thus the West becomes further involved in the unstable region from Pakistan to the Middle East. An unexpected terrorist event dramatically changes the situation which then becomes similar to the colonial wars of the 19th and 20th centuries. A long period of reshuffling of the political and security system follow.
CALL ON THE UN: The investigation that "followed the money" to
map the criminal network and catch the criminals proved to be extremely
complex and the speed of international financial markets made
this task more difficult than anticipated. It became clear that the
US experience in Afghanistan would become similar to the USSR’s, but complicated
by continued terrorism at home. This situation lasted for
more than one year and induced some serious political changes both in different
Islamic countries where extremists obtained greater influence and in the US
too, where the war (and Bush) became unpopular. The "anti-global" movement gained
influence, and new leaders with new policies appeared. The UN was seen as potentially
more useful in settling international disputes than direct interventionism had
proven to be. The Bin Laden case, still unsolved, was taken over by the International
Criminal Court.
Other scenarios envisioned the successful rising up of local forces in those countries where the terrorism is based and achieving a situation in which terrorism gradually disappears or is reduced to its minimum.
The study and full text of the scenarios is available on this website at: http://www.acunu.org/millennium/antiterrorism.html
The Future of American Politics. Richard A. Segal Jr., Executive Web Developor for Steve Forbes, founder and pioneer of Forbes Magazine. Richard S. Dunham, senior writer for Business Week.
Technology trends greatly impact the way citizens organize, communicate, and vote. In the future, the behavior of citizens is likely to resemble the past, as it was in the 1830s. In 1830, Alexis de Tocqueville, struck by both the interest and influence of the average citizen in the electoral process once said, "The American people reign over the American political world as God rules over the universe." Scenario of the 21st Century: A Return to 'Democracy in America', by Alexis de Tocqueville": "It is the year 2015 but in many ways, it is similar to1830. Back then, candidates canvassed voters in their homes and citizens questioned politicians in public forums. The big difference today is, that it is all taking place on the internet. Back in 2004, voters felt less potent as the game was to raise enormous amounts of money from special interests and then spend it on gobs of TV advertising--in which candidates were packaged like beer. Victory went to the best mass marketer. In 2015, politics changed. The politics of 2015 resembles what Alexis de Tocqueville saw in 1830. The Information Revolution democratized politics by weakening the elites' grip on information. American voters, instead of being passive recipients of news and advertising from a few TV networks and national publications, today receive information from hundreds of competing sources, such as E-mail lists and Web sites. What's more, interactive media lets the voter talk back. It's personal again. Today in 2015, the masses attend campaign events in cyberspace and exchange ideas in online chat rooms. What went away by 2015 were the tight links between moneyed interests and the traditional apparatus of party politics. What ascended between 2004 - 2015 were single-issue groups that mobilized their troops with a computer keystroke, and coalitions around causes or candidates. ``It ended up weakening institutional structures,'' says White House Chief of Staff John D. Podesta. ``That's bad news for party discipline and good news for creativity.'' The risk of 2020 - 2050 is this: For nearly two and one-half centuries past, two major parties have moderated the public's passions because neither has dared stray too far from the center. If the parties splinter, the U.S. could wind up with a fractured, stalemated Congress and a President preferred by only a small portion of the electorate. To avoid obsolescence, the Democrats and Republicans themselves will have to harness technology to build cohesive blocs of voters from splinter groups. ``In essence,'' says Democratic consultant Dane Strother, ``it's back to the future.''
Scenario 2025: Broken Edge. Oliver Sparrow is the Director
of the Challenge!Forum. He is the author of many publications, including five
books which were written for the Forum, as well as an interactive CD-ROM and
this web site. He is also known for his groundbreaking computer-based presentations,
which are given to audiences totalling well over ten thousand people in the
course of a year.
This scenario examines plausible trends in global security, global economy,
corporate governance, and global geo-political infrastructure. Sparrow writes
about a highly fractured world, stretched under the envelop of a broken environment
where resources are becoming scarce. Scenario in the 21st Century: 2025: Broken
Edge: "The century began with a series of bad frights, but the enforced
rebalancing of the stock markets in the industrial world was, essentially, completed
by 2005. Issues of terrorism had faded into the background after the resolution
of at least some of tensions in the Middle East, a firm global hand from the
US and its partners, and an effective international clampdown on suspect sources
of finance. Agricultural commodity prices improved as subsidised food exports
from the wealthy world were reduced, and a gradual pattern of lowered tariffs
present good prospects for the economies of the middle income nations. Japan,
too, was seen to be taking strategic steps to reform. The effective insolvency
of its banks had been taken in hand, and lending to business had begun once
more to flow. Japanese interest rates returned to meaningful rates of return,
the Yen strengthened and huge volumes of Japanese savings were repatriated.
European interests, alarmed by the halving of German asset values and by the
weakness of and evident rigidities around the Euro, by the implications of enlargement
and the facts of demographics, had begun an equally painful process of public
re-evaluation of the overall project. Important sources of misdirection and
sclerosis had, therefore, begun to be taken out of the world system. In addition,
however, these processes had four important outcomes. The first was an abandonment
of hitherto sacrosanct rigidities - of agricultural protection and subsidy,
of formal and de facto protection of labour and of the blanket reduction in
monetary degrees of freedom that came with the Euro. Second, increasingly genuine
regionalisation in decision-taking and in monetary policy led to prospects of
specialisation. Local economic engines and flexible trimming of money supply
to meet local needs. Overall discipline was confined to a longer term, rolling
model to which each had to accede. A new cadre of local political talent, linking
the European to the local in a meaningful manner, began to make itself felt,
setting limits on what national-level political traditionalists could maintain.
Third, the unimpeded flow of low-cost labour from the recent accession to the
EU together produced a dramatic sense of dynamics. Fourth, management teams
that had hitherto been protected from international capital disciplines by state
assistance, legal and regulatory protection were increasing subject to enforced
change. Confidence - in the future, in governance, in global security - had
been somewhat restored. The United States and its NAFTA partners found themselves
in a fine environment. The enormous investment in information technology of
the previous century was open to exploitation at low cost. Upward pressure on
the dollar remained a powerful force, but improved conditions in the rest of
the industrial world somewhat relieved this, as did a booming home market. The
ocean of technical capability that decades of investment in science and technology
had already created was supplemented by an endless flow of astounding breakthroughs.
US dominance in the security environment was essentially assured by its successes
in what was once called the war on terrorism. With exceptional instances of
dissent, the other industrial powers fell into line with procedures which they
saw to be in their best interests. A consensus was developed around the management
of areas of strategic importance, such as the resource-rich regions. There was
broad agreement around the techniques, legal basis, agency and funding of interventions
both here and in the chaotic regions of the world. A set of criteria were developed,
covering the priority of such an intervention and the ability of the industrial
powers to deliver a timely improvement in the situation. Interventions were
increasingly planned, based on such criteria, rather than undertaken in response
to crisis and media pressure. In particular, international companies were increasingly
required to act as arms of the state in this respect, reporting intelligence
and making (often subsidised) dispositions that assisted in stabilisation plans.
Thus the choice of location for a plant might be expected to take into account
the need to stabilise - provide income and employment - in a region. Not all
firms accepted these strictures, but pressure on US-domiciled companies was
intense, and many found themselves carrying both a burden and walking with a
powerful friend. Non-US companies found themselves at a loss in access to intelligence
- to name but one area - and so had to balance independence of action against
the advantages of compliance. The effective hegemony that developed over the
first ten years of the century had the ability to damp virtually any sources
of conflict that threatened the world's equanimity. A series of international
agreements were developed under the auspices of the WTO that greatly reduced
impediments to trade. Each of these were based on the view that economic growth
was ultimately good for all, and that impediments to this - to trade, to the
free flow of capital, to information flows and to access to knowledge - were
all matters to be set aside. Gestures were made in this legislation to environmental
issues, to impact management in poor nations and to workers' rights, but the
speed of events made these issues hard to implement fully, and the entangled
nature of state and commerce led to many special cases being developed where
extralegal issues were paramount. The upshot of this was, however, that industries
which were open to international integration - such as everything from vehicle
manufacture to broadcast entertainment - therefore underwent swift consolidation,
often doing so around US corporate frameworks. The situation in the 2008-2010
period, during the second business cycle into the new millennium was, therefore,
a strikingly positive one. Economic growth was reaching levels seen only in
the post W.W.II glory days. True, there were more or less acute issues of demographics
in some nations, but technology was enabling people to work from their homes,
and markets were supporting the assets needed for old age. Extremely tight IT-based
systems of guest-worker management permitted the flow of many low-wage earners
to come into the industrial world from elsewhere in the world. Economic growth
was providing the taxes needed for a vast range of public works, including care
of the elderly. Health technologies promised to at least manage the leading
ailments of old age. This period of "fast forward" had, however, concealed
some profound problems which the pragmatic, fragmented world of 2010 was poorly
suited to handle. National statistics for important regions were, in effect,
as poor in 2010 as they were in 1998, when the Asian collapse showed nations
to owe up to ten times as much as had been thought. In the rich world, political
institutions had changed little in several generation, and the sheer complexity
and the modern environment made effective decision-taking a matter of compromise
and opportunistic horse-trading, usually amongst the articulate. Capital markets
continued to pursue their zero-sum game with the same avidity as before, but
with sharper tools and shinier teeth. Business managers were pressed ever-harder
for results, and having to perform in a world where life cycles were shorter,
and where the difference between the best and the inadequate was next to marginal.
Corporate governance was typically weak in the international environment, despite
sweeping US-based regulation after the scandals of the millennium's end. Much
multinational business activity was anyway effectively conducted "offshore"
to the highly regulated regions. The mix of interests forced on the international
companies by the war on terror provided further instances where misdirection,
hidden income flows and false accounting developed unchecked. These objective
problems were, however, as nothing to the social issues which had been building
up, partly in the industrial world but chiefly beyond it. Periods of prosperity
may provide the platform from which discontent finds a voice. Stringency, by
contrast, focuses minds on essentials. Education and the media provide the means
to articulate discontent. In the wealthy world, and elderly traditionalist group
find fast change and technological wizardry increasingly alienating. All low-skill
jobs that can be taken by low-wage immigrants or exported to low-wage areas
are now inaccessible to the poorly educated, and a further cadre feel aliens
in their own societies. "World" cities had achieved populations which
were now of predominantly foreign extraction - as opposed to having a third
to a half of their population made up of foreigners, as was the case at the
turn of the millennium. Some citizens who relished pluralism and a cosmopolitan
environment enjoyed this, but a significant voting majority felt that their
country has been stolen from them. A potent thread of rejectionist politics
developed in Western societies, taking erratic and unexpected action against
paradigms of modernity. Commerce, and leaders who embrace the cutting edge,
were frequent targets for more or less orderly interventions. These issues were
minor, however, when compared to what was happening in the world at large. An
elite had been doing well, a middle class had been straining every sinew to
keep up, but a significant fraction of those living even in countries which
are doing well - and virtually everyone in the countries which had not accepted
the world order - had been seeing their world becoming less understandable,
less orderly and above all, less a place in which they felt at home. Traditional
institution rely on tacit rules, on trust and on reputation. These were being
diluted or eroded by a fluid, urbanised society. Traditional sources of authority
derive their power from consent, trust, unquestioned tacit rules, undisturbed
continuity and from their ability to deliver. Don-client networks are a common
form or traditional authority in almost all developing countries. These consist
of nested pyramids, where one "cell" consists of a powerful figure
- the don - and a layer of clients. Clients owe the don respect and obedience,
and the don provides them with opportunities, a source of power in the event
of conflict and a means of dispute resolution. Each person of power is a client
in their own right in a higher pyramid, and they appeal up the structure in
order to access the power that they need in order to help a client. Dons who
are unable to do this are deserted, so they must never be seen to be weak or
to back down. Such structures maintain many societies where national civil mechanisms
cannot reach. They can be weakened when, for example, clients can see opportunities
elsewhere, due to their improved education and general levels of wealth. Equally,
they can fail when economic circumstances or new, more virile networks make
the system unable to deliver advantage and retaliation to offence. In such circumstances,
civil systems must take over or all order is lost. Old informal structures are
mitigated by long-term relationships, a certain noblesse oblige and by a mutual
interest. The new raw systems that replace during rapid economic and political
shifts are short-term, invariably exploitative and unilateral. As with Russia
after the fall of communism, Mafia and corrupt elites crush the middle classes
and exploit the society in ways which are identified less with the lack of institutions
and good public governance than with the external forces of 'modernisation'.
Rural systems of order are destroyed and replaced by urban exploiters, whose
relationships with the unskilled, inarticulate people whom they control is merciless.
The result is distress, bewilderment, the destruction of well-understood order
and its replacement with mutual predation. Around four billion people lived
in such societies in 2000. Around 750 million lived in the industrial nations,
with their impersonal and transparent institutions. Something over one billion
lived in an equivalent environment. They did so either in nations which were
in fact undergoing industrialisation, or else by living on conditions where
they were were able to transcend local limitations through their elite status.
The numbers in the former industrial nations remain static or declining, with
many moving into a post-industrial "gradualist" state that has already
been discussed, in which change is resented. By 2010, however, the rise of the
global consuming classes was everywhere apparent. This group greatly outnumbered
the wealthy people in the rich world. They may have lacked the national consolidation
of the former elite - and they certainly lacked it individual purchasing power
- but they nevertheless became a formidable force in the world. By 2010, therefore,
seven billion people lived in a very different world from that of 2000. The
old, rich world remained extremely powerful but was becoming a degree arthritic.
Its writ, its paradigm and its insights continued to set the agenda for much
of the world. This said, its institutions were stretched by the ad hoc and pragmatic
way in which complexity had been managed: entwined systems had been ignored
and compromises stitched together to meet urgent needs. International agreements
had been as much imposed as they had been negotiated. The interests of the new
consuming class had begun to shift away from the generic acquisition of possessions
to issues of individual identity and individuation. In addition, the pursuit
of local identity, of "roots" and ethnic identity had become strong,
driven as much by brand differentiation amongst marketers as by the yearning
for stability. States that were host to large numbers of these consumers found
that issues of external and consumer debt, inflation and economic instability
grew and, as a consequence, the 2010 period was marked by increasing numbers
of bank collapses and currency crises in these emergent economies. As already
indicated, state reporting of statistics remained dismal and few knew the scale
of the problems that were building up. Behind this was, however, a growing political
movement that resented the hegemonic dominance of the old industrial powers,
and which was more than a little fearful of the forces - technical, social,
industrial - which they had so casually unleashed. Two billion people continued
to live in absolute poverty, but half of them were now urbanised and consequently
accessing more education and insight. Around three billion were seeing their
traditional world turned upside down, and not usually to their advantage. They
resented this bitterly and, as the European underclass turned more or less sequentially
to religion, Luddism, socialism and totalitarianism during the nineteenth and
early twentieth centuries for an explanation of the world and a relief from
it, so deep currents of explanatory bitterness ran everywhere through the world
during the 'teens of the century. Where the pace of change was seen to be excessive,
so challenges were mounted to local governance, and many states fell to populist-rejectionist
movements. As such separatism spread, so it found common cause and so, too,
it discouraged the talent, capital and predictability which were necessary to
cope with the alarming external world. Rising oil prices both permitted Arab
separatism and created crises for the poor and indebted nations.
The scene was set for the reactive phase that has so marked subsequent history.
The downturn in the business cycle in the industrial world served to trip many
of the over-extended middle income states, each affected by high commodity and
energy prices, internal demand and over-borrowing. Sprawling systems of outsourcing
found themselves affected by this, such that industrial world companies experienced
sharp problems. A stock market readjustment - overdue after the boom of the
late 2000s - exposed significant corporate irregularities, and an estimated
15% of gross book value evaporated off world bourses in the course of two months.
Confidence was heavily undermined and two years of drifting and economic misery
affected the lives of billions of people. This proved the catalyst that had
been needed to bring the many rejectionist movements into practical alignment.
The "war on terror" had been coupled with ten years of military and
economic-diplomatic pressure on states that encouraged illegal trade or violence.
This had made the phenomenon of terrorism chiefly a local phenomenon, in which
only small organisations or those with little to lose tended to engage. Its
orchestrated return came as a considerable surprise to most, and a confirmation
of what they had always believed to many. The world was an unsafe place, the
foreign was dangerous, it was best to bolt the door and be safe at home. Coupled
to the now-apparent economic instability of the industrialising nations, the
political prescription seemed inevitable: to pull supply chains back to 'safe'
environments and, wherever possible, to rationalise global manufacturing activities.
This, of course, worsened conditions in the industrialising countries. It confirmed
many in the poor nations in the views that they might already have formed as
to the capricious and selfish nature of the old, wealthy countries. The poor
nations were, of course, hurt even more, yet oddly heartened by the palpable
failure of the wealthy nations. In the rich nations, many systems that had relied
on continued economic expansion and buoyant markets - such as, in particular,
the support of the elderly population - were now seen as unsustainable. A concerted
howl arose from the dependent population, aimed at much the same targets as
the criticism from abroad: at over-fast change, at modernism, to demonise individual
fast-buck merchants and the like. As turbulence and violence became a feature
of the poor and industrialising world, so the isolationist tendency - to slow
down, to slow 'them' down, to keep them out - became a strong political voice.
As this seemed a pragmatic move, and one which fitted with the commercial motives
of the time, at least some major states moved in this direction. Trade weakened,
agreements were not honoured, institutions were challenged and ignored. A growing
tide of lawlessness developed in the poorer, chaotic states. This has its impacts
in the wealthy world in strangely indirect ways. Public health was allowed to
slip in the poor nations and so disease control and disease reporting lapsed.
Epidemics of novel viral diseases swept through crowded and poorly sanitised
cities, and thence to the susceptible wealthy world. Dangerous and forbidden
technologies - such as manipulation of human foetuses during pregnancy in order
to alter the child's capabilities, or the use of xenotransplantation - quickly
found homes in these nations, serving foreigners. Kits that allowed the choice
of a child's gender during conception became cheaply available, having formerly
been banned. The reason for this ban now became apparent, as four out of five
births in wide regions of central Asia were male. More pertinently, perhaps,
intellectual property rules were flouted and many knowledge products on which
western companies relied for their existence were sold globally on networks.
Environmental and human rights accords, laboriously enforced during the boom
years, were swiftly dumped. In effect, the world had gone at integration too
fast and with too little concern for the systems, institutions and social habits
which this needed. Angry groups now huddled behind their respective barriers,
shouting insults and tossing rocks. Wiser voices began to council a new approach.
It has not been easy to deliver this, and it is far from clear how we are to
progress from 2025. Technological potential is unsurpassed, and a huge cadre
of capable people now exist. It is issues such as trust, continuity and reciprocity
that are at a premium. The period of aggressive entry into other people's domestic
problems is past us, yet we are at a loss how to tackle the managerial and institutional
issues which harm billions in the aggressive, violent and rejectionist countries
with which the world is peppered. Africa appears irredeemable, even after the
abating of the HIV epidemic. Central Asia is a complex network of warlord-dominated
enclaves, and the areas between the Mediterranean and India seem intractably
withdrawn. China and India are holding together as political entities with the
gravest difficulty. Coastal China, southern east Asia and Latin America are,
in their very different ways, relatively bright spots nut none are of themselves
the engine of growth that is needed to return vibrancy to the rather gray scene."
Back to the
Future: Final Report on Planning and Designing Legislatures of the Future.
Max K. Arinder, executive director, Mississippi Joint Legislative Committee
on Performance Evaluation and Expenditure Review (PEER). Journal of the American
Society of Legislative Cerks and Secretaries. Volume 6, Number 2 Fall 2000.
This Mississippi task force, working on alternative futures of the legislature, decided to structure its first attempt at scenario building around three critical dimensions or axes. "First is the status of direct democracy. The public's desire for direct versus representative democracy cuts to the most fundamental issues facing future legislatures: Will the press for direct democracy made possible by technology and the ascendance of the desire for the ultimate in democratic expression continue to prevail? A second axis of uncertainty is the increasing complexity of the legislative environment and the continually shifting balance between political self-interest and respect for the legislative institution. A third axis that the task force factored into our thinking is potential changes in the demand for services. Will the trend of getting government out of the lives of its citizens prevail or will demand for government services increase as needs emerge? These three axes of uncertainty provided a promising framework for exploring how changes in social, technological, economic, environmental, and political environments will affect the legislature of the future." Scenarios in the 21st Century: Alternative Political Futures for the Legislature in 2025: Scenario 1) The Harassed Legislature: "Technology has made it possible for direct democracy to be a highly viable alternative to the more traditional representative democracy; the fabric of the institution is beginning to show the strain." Scenario 2) The Circumvented Legislature: "This legislature has passed that invisible point where direct initiatives have eclipsed the more deliberative representative processes and traditional legislatures are weakened and on the decline as the public's choice for problem solving." Scenario 3) The Traditional Legislature: "This is the task force's nod to the possibility that the contemporary legislature has evolved sufficiently to allow it to be competitive in vying for public confidence. Able to rise to the challenges of the future as it has arisen to the challenges of the last twenty-five years, the traditional legislature is alive and well." Scenario 4) The Diminished Legislature: "This is the result of a loss of interest and/or confidence in the democratic process itself. Under this scenario there is an abdication of responsibility to strong political personalities that have been allowed to assume relatively unchallenged leadership positions. The diminished legislature is a move away from democracy as we now know it."
The
Government of Australia 2020 Project.
Ian Fergusen. The Government of Australia 2020 Project, Working Paper, 2003.
Officials and thinkers in the country of Australia came together for a trends
discussion of Australia to 2020. These global scenarios, with Australia in context,
follow.
Scenarios of the 21st Century. The Government of Australia 2020 Project. Scenario 1) A Trip to the Precipice: "The global situation deteriorated from 2005 onwards. Following the Middle East turmoil, the world was polarised into two camps: those for and those against the US. The international system was paralysed by a succession of religious and civil wars and by conflicts over resources. In the face of unbearable uncertainty and anxiety, there has been a rise in authoritarian (ideological, theocratic or militaristic) regimes that are tolerated by people tired of chaos. This group of states includes 9 of the 18 nuclear capable states. Global institutions to manage international politics, the ecosystem and economic systems have failed to eventuate. Issues that need global cooperation are politicized in win-lose scenarios. The individual nation-state has lost any effective voice in the global turmoil. The international situation is mirrored in Australia. The system of governance is fragmented, disjointed and indecisive. There is no coherent approach to complex problems across levels of government. Federal government is seen as remote, elitist and unaccountable. Buffeted by international trends and forces over which it has no control, it lacks direction and vision, and is responsive only to vested interests. The situation is exacerbated by a hostile Senate that refutes government programs. Partisanship has entirely replaced any sense of open dialogue and debate. Civil liberties considered sacrosanct at the turn of the millennium have been eroded in the face of the on-going terrorist threat. The internal identity card contains pictorial and electronically stored information and a location chip. Under the guise of security, the administration has the power to track and control every individual if it chooses to do so. The press is failing the citizens, inundating them with specious information, creating exaggerated awareness of issues but no understanding. The level of sensationalism necessary to attract attention fuels extremism. State regimes are weak and failing. They claim to serve, but fail to acknowledge dissent, difference or diversity. Lacking a values framework and unable to finance the demands of their electorates, they jump from one issue to another, grasping at ideological straws and transferring blame to other levels of government. Massive cuts to the public sector bureaucracies have placed inordinate pressure on those remaining to deliver services. The level of corruption in local authorities is at an all-time high. Across the board public figures appear to lack the courage to stand up to business interests or minority pressure groups. At community level there are sharp divisions on generational and socio-economic lines. Older folk bemoan the emergence of hedonistic, consumerist and individualistic youth with few civic virtues. Segments of the population such as marginalized rural groups and long term unemployed feel disenfranchised and are easy targets for radical cults and neo-fascist groups. The clear inability to cope is polarizing political parties and fostering extreme positions. People vote for authoritarian figures hoping for decisive leadership but fearing a lurch towards a self-serving dictatorship. We never really appreciated how fragile democracy was until we looked over the edge…" Scenario 2) Our Preferred Future? "It is 2020. I am immensely proud to be an Australian citizen. It's amazing how far our country progressed in the first two decades of the century. A much improved international situation provided a suitable context for growth and prosperity. Domestically, we found that once "our preferred future" was articulated, it was not really that difficult to start shaping it. Internationally, the emergence of China and India has tended to balance US hegemony and European domination. The expansion of the world economy created strong demand for Australian resources. The restructure of the United Nations to reflect the new realities has given it added credibility. Institutions to monitor international governance, economics and trade are more effective. Other institutions to address human rights and the ecology are progressing, albeit slowly. In Australia, the constitutional changes of 2010 were nowhere near as traumatic as some predicted. With minimal changes the transfer to a Republic was accomplished and a Bill of Rights adopted. The structure of government is nominally the same as last century but there are some marked differences in the way it operates. Alterations to the system have been widely debated and systematically introduced. Governments at all levels are working against a backdrop of a longer term vision. It facilitates the setting of international and domestic goals and priorities for service delivery. Governments are generally smaller, more concerned with governance, setting guidelines, boundaries, standards and policy, rather than with running businesses or enterprises. The one exception is public utilities which have been reclaimed following the collapses of the first decade. Problems of accountability and responsibility were addressed by putting the authority with the knowledge and the ability to implement. This resulted in the heterarchies we have today which operate in a matrix pattern across government. Political parties are less strident. The party organisation is more an administrative support structure than an ideological platform. Parliaments more closely reflect the demographics of the wider community. For example, in the Queensland State parliament, 40% of politicians are female and the average age is 37. The accountability and responsiveness of elected representatives is independently monitored and published. Now that ethical leadership is acknowledged and rewarded, a wider range of candidates are stepping forward to make a contribution. Politicians are now more likely to consult and listen rather than talk and tell. Communities expect that Government will exploit technology to work in partnership on major issues and optional solutions. The latter have to be cost-effective, sustainable and consistent with the long term vision. People have the opportunity to provide input on public spending for health, education and infrastructure development. At regional level there are integrated plans covering transport congestion, urban planning, environment renewal, and safe and supportive communities. Seamless services are delivered from government centres "badged" with federal, state and local government logos. Citizens can make direct contact with their local, state and federal representatives from these locations. The exploitation of the South Australian 'hot-spot' energy resources has been a boon for the economy, assuring a cheap stable supply of renewable energy for the next 200 years. The development of high temperature super-conducting technology facilitates energy distribution to the East coast. Excess energy is being used to create on demand hydrogen fuel production. Wind and solar energy industries, water farming, tree farming (rather than clearing), native animal farming (less need for the European herds of the past) abound. This is a time where justice: social, environmental, moral and legal prevails over economic rationalism and trade. Australia is again an optimistic and prosperous society, globally acknowledged as a bell-weather democracy." Scenario 3) Something Different? "It is 2020 and "Government" is nothing like it was last century! Commentators identify four discernable levels of government: supra-national, national, state/provincial and local/municipal; but the categorization is outmoded. It is no longer appropriate to focus on the levels and machinery of government, rather the focus should be on issues, the community and the function of governance. Authority and power has shifted. International governance structures are now more powerful than most nation-states. National and state governments still have a role, but it is significantly reduced. Our own Federal government, like most others, has ceded authority in many fields to international bodies and has significantly reduced in size. It still deals with issues of national security, the economy and sets domestic policy priorities; but the vast majority of service provision is decentralised and outsourced. The pattern is repeated at State level. Legislatures there are losing ground to virtual regional and issues-based governance structures. Citizen initiated referenda have been introduced and there is a plan to hold simultaneous referendums in all states in 2022 to seek to abolish state governments and to formalize the introduction of regional governments. (It is unlikely this move will be successful, but it indicates how far we have moved!) At local and regional levels, it's all about communities. Best practice governance models have applied technology to open government, to align it closer to the grassroots, to allow citizens access to decision-making and to decentralise service delivery. Physical and virtual communities form around issues to guide elected representatives on practical, sustainable solutions that conform to the long term vision. Politicians can serve for only three terms, but they are better paid than twenty years ago. Their oath of office attests they are independent of any political party and that they will abide by the published code of conduct. Our democracy has demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt…" Scenario 4) More of the Same? "Dear Khim, We are very much looking forward to your return to Australia. Those last 17 years have really sped by! When you come back, you won't have too much difficulty adapting - Australia has not changed much! Despite the PM's talk at the UN last week, we are really a bit player on the international stage. Once upon a time we "punched well above our weight", but a couple of poor decisions last decade fixed our international reputation for a long time to come! Economically things are not flash. Even though Australia is firmly established in a trading bloc - it's in an increasingly hostile trading environment. You will have seen that the multi-lateral trade talks ramble on. There's little hope that they will lead anywhere soon given the entrenched international positions on world trade. Just looking at the newspaper this morning, the Federal government scene is still the same. There are too many "professional pollies" - many have never been employed outside politics! Policy and political fortunes are still developed in secret. Question time is a joke. The adversarial two party system (which consistently degenerates into personality politics) is increasingly tiresome and irrelevant - but still it persists! Every government since the turn of the century has faced a hostile Senate - this becomes the excuse for inactivity on the big issues. Here at State level they blame the Feds for a lack of resources - but there is no doubt the bureaucracy is pretty inefficient. "Big ticket" items like education and health are no better administered than at the turn of the century. They persist with "quick fix" solutions rather than confronting powerful lobby groups and addressing the fundamental problems. Dealing with anything that crosses departmental boundaries or levels of government seems to be beyond them. It is so frustrating! There doesn't seem to be any mid to long term planning in the public sector. The bureaucracy bungles along reacting to the latest political issues and newspaper headlines. Structures have been established for community consultation and to encourage grass roots democracy. There have been some successes, but there's a lot of tokenism and the mechanisms are usually exploited by organized lobby groups who are not always representative of community concerns. The average standard of living is still pretty high, but the group of "have-nots" is getting bigger. Older folk like our parents' generation are getting nervous. Increasing numbers rely on Government support funded from a dwindling tax base - but you probably picked that up from your dad's letters. That said, there seems to an abiding faith in the system of government (in parliament and elections), in individual rights and tolerance, a 'fair go', and in social justice for all citizens. A more multicultural Australia continually tests these values, but invariably they come out on top. Also on the plus side, support for environmentally friendly energy and transportation systems is finally beginning to bite, but it will be a long time before we recover from the excesses of the past. I suppose the one saving grace is that politicians have to face the electorate every couple of years, but there is little difference between the two major parties, and the minor parties and independents tend to be single-issue based. The best we can hope for is an occasional change of government to at least prevent corruption becoming endemic. Well Khim, must close now. Tell Danny to write if you see her again and let us know your arrival details and we shall be there to meet you…" Scenario 5) Some Thoughts - Worth A Thought? These Snippets do not Form a Coherent Story, but may be Worth a Thought: "The world has moved beyond governments. In 2020 people have formed communities which barter goods and services amongst each other and across the globe. People have no need to go to workplaces as they have skills to produce something that makes life sustainable in their own backyards, and this is what they exchange for other goods and services. Life is indeed different. Every species in the Australian environment gets a vote before every person gets a vote. People have access to the landscape and can walk from one side of the country to the other without encountering a "private property - keep out sign". Deep rooted (salt busting), drought tolerant genetically engineered Australian species such as Acacias are our principal source of carbohydrate. There are no roads as personal transport has become airborne. Health care is delivered free over the internet. Every rooftop has a bioreactor producing oil for cars photo-synthetically. The Australian Republic's federal government is responsible only for strategic and nationwide policy and service delivery in Defence, Foreign Affairs, Security (internal and external), the Environment, Trade, and Strategic Economic Planning. Policy dominates the federal agenda. The 2015 watershed election and establishment of a Republic also saw the federal government's right to collect taxation, move back to the States. Government has redefined its role and begins to implement social systems based on the laws of natural systems. The old economic rationalist model is abandoned. Success is no longer gauged by GNP and economic criteria. The new models are based on an understanding of cells, genetics, Chaos and Complexity theory. The Government sees itself as part of an adaptive system, giving form and structure to the variety of social systems which self-organize around it. Governments mediate, facilitate and act as catalyst for social systems operating on a human scale - small intimate systems creating bigger systems and so on. The government agencies are akin to Messenger RNA providing feedback to governing bodies, so they can adapt and respond (like genes) providing what is required to keep the systems operating. Government agents become the catalysts, enabling social "reactions" and helping to build the capacity of communities to become self-organizing, functional and sustainable, both socially and ecologically. All systems operate in accordance with natural laws, with care for the environment, relationship building and adaptability as primary drivers. Governments elected by popular vote are no longer partisan. They become self-organized bodies the members of which are chosen for their intelligence, humanity and capacity for visionary leadership.…and every form of government acknowledges the cultural industries. In fact culture is now a major concern of government given that bureaucrats are now largely redundant due to our wonderful trans-national fuzzy logic networks developed to perfectly administer taxes, education and welfare grants. Government has realised that the loyalty of citizens depends on their appreciation of culture and every individual has the right to artistic development and education. Everyone expects to have musical skills and performance or craft skills. Political performance is judged by the delivery of these services. Artists are a respected elite - except for actors who have been replaced by computer generated holo heroes on the daily 'real life' holo virtual reality shows.... Since the extension of the Presidential Emergency five years ago, things are already improving. In the last weekly address on both channels, armed forces chief General Saltas, said the President has been happy to extend his appointment for life and the armed forces can now concentrate on further improving the happiness of the people since the criminal gangs have now been permanently defeated in the Western and Northern Territories. On the question of government, he repeated that there is no reason to return to the "bad times" when criminal gangs told lies to the people and stacked the old parliament with the non-progressives and atheists. There have been no complaints about any aspect of government for several years - proof, he said, that the Progress Australia programme has the full backing of the people. Then the screen went blank. A few people got together and created a new criteria for voting for political posts. The criteria was long, but the idea was that if a person had several of the qualities they would be better suited to hold office than their predecessors. This idea went out over the internet and eventually started catching on - mostly in small villages or towns. Some of the criteria were: personal insight, ability to laugh at ones self, background and experience with crisis handling, an understanding of systems behavior, ability to admit mistakes and learn from them and articulate the learning to constituents, personal value system etc. This idea was not taken up in the US, but was implemented in other countries, particularly those which were developing, moving into more democratic forms and away from negative dictatorships. They still wanted a dictator, but they wanted a mature, father/mother or grandmother/grandfather figure for whom they could vote...Though the local / regional government sector was rationalised into regional local authorities which increased their service delivery impact, they lost the power to tax or rate their constituents to the States. People-centric services such as education and health are now wholly controlled at the local (regional) level and funded from both state and federal levels."
Futureland:
Nine Stories of an Imminent World. Autor: Walter Mosley, 2001, Warner
Books
From story entitled Little Brother, page 205
In this work, author Walter Mosley describes a future in which society
predominately employs an automated justice system.
The “court” consists of a screen; the judge, juries and lawyers appear
on screen only and are compressed personalities – that is composed of dozens
of dead and living judges, juries and lawyers. They believe they are superior
to “real” living beings because they are composed of many bodies, have
a superior retrieval system and a greater overall mind.
Witnesses appear only on screen as well, and are subject to neural
links for “fact finding” and lie detector tests, both used to insure that
only the factual truth is presented to the court. Meanwhile, defendants
are restrained via automated chains and are subject to neural cameras planted
in their brains.
Using the automated justice system, trials take only 10-20 minutes
and there is never a backlog of cases in this society’s legal system.
Only the rich can afford “real life” judges, juries and lawyers who
might understand and consider non-factual variables such as circumstances
and motivation.
Possible
Scenarios for Columbia’s Future. Author: James L. Zackrison, National
Defense University, Institute for Strategic Studies; Last update 9/30/2002
Taken from website: http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/books%20-%201999/Crisis%20What%20Crisis%20Eng%20Oct%2099/cris2.html
In this document, Mr. Zackrison describes four possible scenarios for the future of Columbia: Idealistic, Inertia, Guerrilla Victory, and Dirty War.
The Idealistic Scenario: describes a time when the leftists, paramilitaries, drug mafias and the civilian government have reached a balance of power. Efforts to eradicate corruption, the lack of justice, and the drug businesses succeed. Lack of drug profits means insurgents cannot fund wars and within ten years of the agreement, peace and stability are achieved. The government is now free to focus on the job of governing.
The Inertia Scenario (the muddle through scenario): “ ‘Muddle through’ implies reaching a livable consensus among all the participants, in this case one that keeps the state together….muddling through may be …. recognition of the currently de facto partitioning of Colombia.” According to the author, in this scenario, the symptoms of the country’s instability, such as drugs, human rights violations, and corruption, are not addressed and status remains the same in the future as it is today.
The Guerrilla Victory Scenario: In this scenario, Columbia emerges as an authoritarian Marxist state with an economy based upon the legal cultivation, production, and export of cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and hash oil. An economic decline results; violence increases, and intense governance and social instability occur. Citizens with the means, flee the country in droves. Columbia’s instability bleeds across boarders causing problems with Venezuela, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Panama. Relations with the U.S. are terminated, and U.S. assets are seized and nationalized.
The Dirty War Scenario: Ruling non-governmental elites align with military and police forces to enter into a “war of extermination against the FARC and ELN” and eventually the drug mafias. There is “a dramatic period of loss of life” and civil liberties. After a period of military rule, “the military would then cede the reigns of government to the civilian elites, who would form a new government to capitalize on the new stability.”
North
Korea. Author: Christopher Salter, 2003, Chelsea House Publishing
Chapter 8, Images of North Korea in the Future (page 95).
In this scenario, author Christopher Salter discusses a possible future for North Korea. He sees changes in the future in North Korea’s economic activities due to North Korea’s Special Administrative Zone of Sinuiju and the people’s exposure to the benefits of free enterprise. He envisions cities showing greater foreign influence from Japan, China and other nations, on the streets, in shop windows, and on billboards. And he sees an increase in agricultural activity, more intense farming, in the areas surrounding the cities
Salter also believes friction will continue between Japan and North Korea because of the deep history between the two; and between North and South Korea “as long as interactions … remain erratic.”
Not
A Drop To Drink? A History Of Water: 2000 – 2020. Author: Oliver Moor
http://www.hackwriters.com/notadroptodrink.htm
(note: no information on author or date of document)
Oliver Moor sets forth four scenarios in this article, all of which describe future conflicts over water.
2005: Turkey diverts water from the Euphrates to irrigate farmland, thereby reducing the water available to Iraq by 50%. Iraqi response is firepower. After a three week period, the water supply to Iraq is restored but it is too late to save the country’s crops and famine and rioting occur.
2009: Zimbabwe refuses to release water from the Kriba dam to Mozambique, which is suffering from a drought. War is averted thanks to intervention by the South African government and its promises to supply Zimbabwe with irrigation technology and Mozambique with desalination plants.
2013: Sea levels rise to such a degree that thousands of miles of coastline in Pakistan are flooded. By 2016 the water has not receded and the lands are now considered permanently lost to the sea.
2015: Water from the Indus is not usable for irrigation. Pakistan is suffering from a water shortage and is disputing with India and China; neither will assist Pakistan by sending water from their Himalayan ice fields. Russia is assisting, shipping water to Pakistan from its “newly accessible deep-crust aquifers” but that assistance is not enough to adequately meet Pakistani needs.
Post 9/11 Scenarios: The Future of Global Security. Innovative Technology Partnerships, LLC. INMM Southwest Regional Chapter, Annual Meeting, Taos, NM, USA, May 16, 2002
Post 9/11 Scenarios: The Future of Global Security was developed to promote discussion among global leaders about the post 9/11/2001 world. The four scenarios summarized from this document are: Struggling Through; A Chance for Hope; World War III; and Return of the Dark Ages.
Struggling Through: In this scenario, the world is in shock after a nuclear “incident” has happened in the US. The act, perpetrated by terrorists, has left the country devastated morally and economically, over the loss of over a million lives and the “indefinite evacuation of a hundred-plus mile stretch of the East Coast.” Terrorist activities in the US and around the world are propelling extraordinary global cooperation; in particular, an international UN nuclear force. Education is considered the key to fighting the terrorists: “the world must commit to take an entire younger generation and provide enlightenment and education to bring the children away from the influences of the 20 th century hatred.” While a difficult process, the continuing global terror threats are proving to be sufficient motivation. It is hoped “the Malta Global Strategy Toward Peace would begin to see results before a cell obtained sufficient weapons to create the feared Global Discontinuity.”
A Chance for Hope: This scenario depicts a time in which Palestine
has become a state, with official status from the UN and defendable borders.
“It had made a much more significant change than even the proponents had
imagined” and surprisingly, resulted in the dissolution of the terrorist
networks it had originated. Anti-Americanism has subsided. The US has launched
Operation Freedom - the overthrow of the Iraqi government - and the U.S.
was viewed with renewed admiration. “The completion of Bush-Putin I, and
the signing of the Huen-Wilson-Sakarov dismantlement treaty gave hope to
the world that it had stepped back from the brink of destruction. The New
United Nations quickly gathered all of the necessary resources to serve
as the Overseer, and many believed that there indeed was a renewed Chance
for Hope.”
.
World War III: The war on terrorism has been won. But as many
had feared, resentment over US presence in the countries of Middle Eastern
allies has grown and “the linkage, real or implied, to Israel began to
take its toll.” The first exchange of the Millennium War, or World War
III as it is known to some, has occurred. The use of nuclear weapons has
resulted in million deaths but there has not been a full exchange of stockpiles.
“Some magic threshold in the social conscience of warring nations could
not be crossed, and each exchange was tempered.” However, in the second
decade of the millennium, the Musharraf government is overthrown and the
Pakistani nuclear stockpile is now in the hands of a fundamentalist faction.
The world is preparing itself for how World War III might ultimately play
out.
Return of the Dark Ages: The date of the nuclear attack on the US, 3/29, is now be another number etched into America's history. Following “the event” a different lifestyle emerged: what were once "gated communities" had become "armed encampments.” The US government is focused on the security of the country’s industrial abilities and resources and is not exercising its influence in global conflicts. Global conflicts “festered, and now were on the brink of disaster - the Koreas, India-Pakistan, Israel-Arab, China-Taiwan, not to mention local civil wars too numerous to count where factions had secured weapons of mass destruction with impunity. Some estimated 100 million had died since 3/29, and the nuclear winter theory was being tested in a real life experiment.” There are, however, discussions of hope, indicating that most, if not all of the fundamentalist enclaves had been distinguished.
The
Conflict Environment of 2016: A Scenario Based Approach. Author: Andrew
F. Krepinevich, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
www.csbaonline.org
The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is a non-profit policy
research center than specializes in promoting innovative thinking about
defense planning and investment strategies. The following illustrative
scenario considers the future security environment of Easy Asia in 2016:
“The last 20 years have seen a gradual, yet significant change in East
Asia’s security environment and in the military balance of power.
China is now the region’s dominant great power, with the largest economy
and biggest military. Economically, however, considerable autonomy
is vested in the provinces. The Chinese people seem satisfied to
defer political freedom as long as the nation’s strong economic growth
offers the prospect of continuing the marked improvement in their living
standard. Twenty years of declining defense budgets has seen the
U.S. military presence in the region diminish over time, to the point where
the leadership of long-time allies like Korea (reunified in 2002) and Japan
publicly debate whether
they need to take a more active course in providing for their own defense.”
According to the scenario, tensions in the conflict environment escalate
in the summer of 2016, when Chinese leaders receive intelligence regarding
Taiwan’s political and military initiatives towards the U.S., Korea and
Japan. “On September 20, 2016, Beijing declares a maritime and air exclusion
zone extending 1,000 kilometers out from Taiwan and the Spratly Islands.
Any ship or aircraft found within the zone will be liable to destruction.
Chinese forces begin laying mines near Taiwan’s major ports, and Beijing
announces that Chinese ballistic and cruise missile batteries have pre-targeted
all of Taiwan’s major ports and airfields. Faced with this challenge,
the [U.S.] president asks the Pentagon for options on how to break the
Chinese blockade if negotiations with Beijing fail to produce a diplomatic
solution.”
Sunset
at Dawn. Author: Aisha Said
www.hackwriters.com/anewpeace.htm
Grounded in the events of September 11, 2001 author Aisha Said creates
a scenario that demonstrates how in 20 years, new anti-terrorism laws and
strategies in America have tackled the problem of domestic security while
simultaneously generating a barrage of new challenges. “While most people
around the world will remember the horrific attacks of September 11, 2001
as the darkest day of the year, for me I could still feel the heat of the
smoke that clouded my life. Not only did I lose my husband but also
my daughter was born premature and stateless. For the next 20 years
I tried to return to my life in America but new laws kept pouring out to
deny my baby and me our right of abode. Twenty years after the creation
of the [Office of Homeland Security], resulting in billions of dollars
of over-budgeting, America still lives with the fear that there are many
trained killer waiting to strike. New security strategy based
on the principle of Low Tech and High Concept titled Freedom of Non-Association
adopted i
n 2019 has only succeeded in creating a society of uneasy calm.
In this new program, people are encouraged to stay off the streets ad transact
businesses and schooling via electronic media instead of physical travel.
TV and radio jingles are used to “advise” people that they are safer at
home than on the streets. The idea is to monitor the dew on the move
via satellite and arrest any suspicious persons.”
Seven War Scenarios Every Investor Should Consider. Author: Michael Brush
Written shortly after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, this article considers seven scenarios regarding the U.S. war on terrorism and its impacts for investors. The list of potential scenarios include: 1) Osama bin Laden is captured; 2) the war escalates; 3) Afghanistan turns into a quagmire; 4) there are more terrorist strikes; 5) dissent arises in the U.S.; 6) the war on terrorism destabilizes the Middle East; 7) U.S. attacks spread to Iraq or elsewhere. Although the scenarios are limited to short descriptions, each is followed by advice regarding the business ramifications from experts in terrorism, international politics and financial markets.
The
Future of Crime. Author: Chris Lang
www.predicitionscience.org
In this engaging scenario author Chris Lang weaves together an array
of trends and emerging issues including privacy rights, law enforcement,
potentially ubiquitous technology and social interaction to produce a detailed
look at the future of crime. Scenario excerpt: “It’s 2010. Jeff was
just returning from a two-hour sailing excursion. As he walked up the dock
he faced a large white sign with red letters. “You are Entering a Secure
Zone,” it read, “An Identity Scanner is Available for Your Convenience.”
In his case, the scanner wasn’t merely a convenience-it was an outright
necessity. Chizuru would freak-out if he ever left the zone without subordinating
his accesses to a scan. She worried enough about him as it was. Thus, every
time he returned from sailing, he had to have them scan him. Sometimes,
he even had to pay them for it. He had to make sure they recognized him.
They probably recognized him already, but he had to make sure. “They” were
the security companies’ microprocessors. They watched him thr
ough cameras hung from buildings, cameras hung from vehicles, cameras
worn by people, etc. Most of these sensors were necessary anyway just to
make sure robots didn’t bump into people, pets, debris, and so forth, so
a naïve observer might not have suspected that any single entity was
behind all of them. But there was. He, like everyone else, was being followed.
They saw him at home; they saw him in his car; they saw him get on his
boat; and, for all he knew, they might even have watched him by satellite
while he was on the water. He hoped they did. He hoped they watched everything,
especially each other. Checks and balances…checks and balances…gotta make
sure Big Brother doesn’t break the law, right?”
Public Governance in 2020. The Economist, April, 2001.
This article examines governance and OECD country relevance to public confidence in current forms of government, then extrapolates to a scenario in 2020. It offers three sets of thoughts. In the first section, there is an assessment of attitudes towards public governance and an exploration of the social roots from which these grow. The second section assesses one specific issue, the route to policy formation, doing so in the light of what is known about the knowledge economy. The paper closes with a view of where this may take us. In 2020, it becomes a world of high complexity in which coordination and active citizenship will be demanded if issues of true inclusiveness and representation were to work.
Scenario: Governance in 2020. “The next decades create immense complexity in the tasks of government, in the machinery of representation and option generation. People will become more complex in their expectations and in their connections. Economic integration will demand excellent, differentiated policy choices. The consequence is a vast and untidy task of co-ordination, and a considerable intensification of the drift to subsidiary government. Smaller and more inclusive nations in 2020 seem further down the track than are the larger nations, or, those which have relied on a combination of centralisation and market decision-taking as a solution to complexity. In 2020 it is realized that humanity needs to to create the future, or live with what evolveed from contemporary muddle. In 2020, thought is seriously given as to how to engage all in society without simultaneously creating the very logjams that these institutions developed to circumvent in the early 21st Century.”
Security and Power in 2020. Author: Richard Worsley Tomorrow Project
The Tomorrow Project gathered primary information, surveys, and interviews about security, key issues, international institutions, self-determination, and armed conflict in the world of 2020. After conducting these extensive surveys, the Tomorrow Project developed a set of very profound scenarios. The following is one that is of special interest.
Scenario: Industrial World in 2020: “In 2020, we live in the industrial world, which has around one billion increasingly elderly inhabitants. New entrants will perhaps swell this to 1.2 bn by 2020, and this by-then frankly old population will be embedded in a world of around 8 billion by 2020. It will still create about 85% of the wealth, as compared to the poorest 2 bn, who generate less than 1%, down from nearly 3% in 1960. Technology will be widely disseminated, and the communications of 2020 can only be guessed at. In essence, anyone who wants to connect to any information source, group or people or person will be able to do so at minimal cost. Self-evidently, this is a fast-paced, hectic world. When I was in India recently, CNN Asia commented on how "a billion people now lived on amphetamines, staying awake for 20 hours a day whilst striving to become rich." Billions in 2020, connected as never before, begin to stand on each others' toes, requiring trans-national regulation, policing, politics and power projection. Agreements on everything from human rights to the environment, from intellectual property to public health requires us to manage our commons. Some states will object, some will lose control. The potential for harm is large, the potential for muddle even higher.”
September 11th: Chapter One of Which Scenario? Author: Jay Ogilvy, Global Business Network.
In this article, Jay Ogilvy sets out to challenge our forsight in the aftermath of September 11th. He notes that alternative scenarios “can help to frame these acts so we can make sense of these events and act accordingly.” In this age of terrorism, using the scenario planning technique for short-term insight can be just as useful as scenario outlooks to the medium and long-term.
Scenario One: Jihad: “A dark world indeed. “Paris, July 12, 2003: Today’s attack on the Eiffel Tower continues the string of international incidents. If only the Americans had listened when Chirac insisted that it wasn’t a "war". Like many a commander in chief who lost a conflict by confusing it with the last war, the Americans thought they could mobilize their military might to defeat the terrorists. They sent their ships and planes toward Afghanistan. They did their best to smoke out Osama bin Laden to catch him on the run. They tried desperately to find a battle they could win . . . but there was none. The enemy was elusive, invisible, dispersed. America wanted action, retribution, and the punishment of the perpetrators. Surely the massed might of America would be sufficient to find and eliminate the enemy. So America went to war. Trouble was, Chirac was right: It wasn’t really a war. At first it looked like Bush "got it." There was talk of "a different kind of war." The first strikes were "surgical," very little "collateral damage." But just when the Americans were celebrating their "victory," the second one hit, the atrocity at the World Series. Enraged by that diabolical choice of targets, America lashed out with less discrimination. You want terror? We’ll show you terror! And a terrible attack rained down from the heavens over Afghanistan. And that was just what Osama bin Laden wanted—an escalation from crime to war. Pictures of maimed women and children helped to unite the Islamic world against America. What had begun as an exchange of carefully focused rapier thrusts now turned into a brawl between the military might of America and every Muslim, every anti-globalist, every disenfranchised child of poverty, both within and outside the borders of the U.S. Throughout 2002, massive air strikes by the U.S. were followed by terrorist attacks in the least likely places—a shopping mall in Toledo, a high school graduation in Austin, a rock concert in London, the assassination of a governor, the kidnapping of a group of business executives. By the end of 2002 the terror had created massive paranoia. People stayed home. Restaurants and theaters remained empty. Businesses shut down. The Dow dipped to triple digits. Like the "war on poverty," like the "war on drugs," this "war on terrorism" looks like it will drag on and on. How can it end now that the war has escalated while one side remains invisible?”
Scenario Two: One World: “A future worth working for. “New York, July 12, 2003: Today ground was broken for the new World Trade Center. It won’t be as tall as the old one, but its reach will be even broader. In the weeks and months following the attack in 2001, the community of great nations got bigger. United by the common cause of uprooting terrorism all over the world, countries like Russia and China acquired an increased respect for the rule of law. Pakistan and Syria came in from the cold. The stick of American power loomed large, but the carrot of peace and prosperity loomed larger. Focusing on global "crime," America refrained from indiscriminate attacks and relied instead on special forces, covert operations, and some very good investigative police work. As a result, America managed to walk the fine line between appeasement on the one hand, and on the other a show of force that would have united the Islamic world in a jihad against the U.S. Walking that fine line wasn’t easy. People were impatient. The pain was deep. But this crime against humanity led to humane responses: Not only heroic rescue efforts and an outpouring of generosity, but also a soul-searching quest for what is most important in life. No sympathy for the criminals. After seven long months of searching, they were found and punished. But the patient precision of their defeat saved the world from decades of descent into senseless bloodshed.”
Scenario Three: Uprising: “Offers an interpretation based on economic rather than political interests. “London, July 12, 2003 As if the pattern were not already clear, today’s attack on the London International Stock Exchange drove home the lesson: The terrorists are targeting the infrastructure of international capitalism. Their enemy seems to be corporatism everywhere, not just in the U.S. Back in 2001 the signals weren’t yet clear. September 11 was an American tragedy, and the response came mainly from the U.S. The attack on the Pentagon drew the U.S. military into the conflict, but in hindsight it appears that the terrorists were provoking a military response more in order to unite the Islamic world than to hurt the U.S. Further attacks—the series of package bombs sent to many corporate headquarters, the frying of the computers at the Hong Kong exchange—made it increasingly obvious that it was not so much the U.S. that was under attack, but big business. Sovereign states were not set up to defend multi-national corporations. Nor is the United Nations equipped to fight for companies rather than nations. For lack of any appropriate "ministry of capital defense," global corporations are now calling for some form of global governance that can mobilize against terrorism. It is odd to see executives who had been eager to "get the government off their backs" now calling for global of governance. What lessons can we draw from these three very different scenarios? First, the real meaning of current events may take time to emerge. Second, know your enemy, and your enemy’s real enemy. Third, for citizens and politicians, it is important that we not unite the Islamic world by mistaking a crime against humanity for an act of war. For corporate interests, it is important to realize that there is no escaping politics. Getting national governments off corporate backs won’t eliminate the problems that the public sector is there to solve. Ignorance and poverty will haunt the global stage even as we combat them locally, and new institutions may be necessary to create a truly global public sector.”
The Return of the State. Author: Peter Schwartz, Red Herring Magazine, March 2002.
Mr. Schwartz discusses the victory of the market over the last two decades. But now we are entering a period of unsurety with the collapse of Enron, the creation of a new government agency – the office of Homeland Security, and the turnaround in helping California deal with the energy crisis due to the failure of deregulaton. Similarly, in Britain, there are growing doubts about the effectiveness of the market. Evidence can be seen in many OECD and developing nations that the public role in providing infrastructure is seriously being reconsidered. Mr. Schwartz makes the case that, “what may (actually) be emerging is a new era of governance--not a neat hierarchy of national and global institutions, but rather, a more complex, tangled network of political and economic entities that enable and constrain one another.
Scenario One: Victory of the Markets: “In this world, we are seeing just a blip in the inevitable victory of the market. We may live in an era in which increasing complexity will continue to overwhelm the ability of public systems to manage and adapt.”
Scenario Two: A New Synthesis: “We might be witnessing a new synthesis of the public and the private, neither unfettered capitalism nor a return to Stalinist bureaucracies. Rather, it may be about new modes of governance made possible by informing and bringing together the governing and governed in new ways. In such a scenario, overlapping and densely connected political and economic institutions at national and global levels compete and co–perate at the same time to create a constrained but powerful system of global governance.To date, the best global example of this trend is the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, which developed from the actions of a single person using the Internet. The result: a coalition of nongovernmental organizations successfully pushed a global treaty signed by nearly all the major governments of the world (except the United States) to end the scourge of land mines. We may see an era of emerging global governance and a more balanced power relationship between public and private interests.”
Transnational Threats to NATO in 2010. United Nations Development Program (UNDP) 1998 European Symposium, National Defense University. Winston Wiley, Associate Deputy Director for Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
This paper focuses on the most likely transnational threats in 2010. In lieu of the events of 2001, we have the responsibility, as futurists, to re-examine some of the best foresight reporting over the past decade This paper is one of them. Toward the conclusion of this report, the UNDP described a set of "wild card" scenarios. One of the key results of this Symposium, was the agreement that the most direct threats will likely come from terrorism, threats to NATO countries' information systems, the build-up and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and international drug trafficking and organized crime. Key wild cards that could have significant implications for the NATO threat environment include the emergence of new radical ideologies and the potential for conflicts on NATO's periphery. “Transnational threats will probably loom large for NATO in 2010. …The threats will vary depending on a number of factors, many will be inter-related, and most will be hard to grapple with and will require cooperation with other nations and international institutions.”
Terrorist and Information Systems Threats. “The international terrorist threat to the NATO area will likely remain high, if below past record levels. It will originate largely from outside NATO member-states and will be increasingly global as groups expand their transnational infrastructures. The United States and to a lesser extent other parts of the Alliance probably will remain prime targets. Terrorism in 2010 probably will be committed more by groups than by states--which are more susceptible to diplomatic and military pressure. These groups will be diffuse and to a large degree undeterrable because they will be "true believers." They will represent diverse ideologies and causes, and many will originate in the Middle East. The extent of terrorist activity is likely to vary depending on several factors: The Middle East Peace Process. A just, equitable peace would decrease the terrorist threat, while a deterioration in the peace process would likely spark greater terrorist violence.”
Other Regional Conflicts and Instability. “The Algerian crisis already has spurred terrorist attacks in France. Instability in the Balkans, former Soviet Union, and North Africa could spawn similar violence in the NATO area. Information Warfare by States. The information warfare threat to NATO from hostile states will also have matured by 2010. Like terrorist groups, countries will have a more thorough understanding of the potential payoffs--as well as challenges--afforded by attacking or otherwise manipulating an adversary's information systems. Many potential adversaries recognize the growing dependence of NATO countries on information systems for both civil and military activities. The governments of several countries have information warfare efforts already under way. Some of these efforts almost certainly are targeted against NATO information systems.”
The Threat From Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) “In 2010, NATO allies will face the prospect that a hostile state, terrorist group, fanatic religious cult, or any other extremist group will use, or threaten to use, nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons against coalition forces or civilians. Potential challenges come from: Russia. Russian WMD and WMD programs will remain of concern to NATO, especially given Russia's continuing economic and political turmoil. Other States. Several states in the Middle East, for example, will have the potential to threaten NATO with WMD by 2010. Iraq. Although Iraq's development and production of WMD has been interrupted as a result of UN resolutions and sanctions, Iraq retains documentation and expertise in the nuclear, chemical, and biological realm, and has probably retained some chemical and biological warheads and SCUD missiles. Also, it has retained or is rebuilding elements of its WMD infrastructure. For instance, Baghdad could use experience in maintaining its 150-km Ababil missile program to support a longer range missile effort. Libya. Libya's chemical weapons capabilities (it employed CW against Chadian troops in 1987) are far more advanced than its research and development efforts in nuclear or biological weapons. Progress has been stunted in these areas by the lack of foreign assistance. Libya has a small SCUD B force which has a 300-km range and, in 1987, fired a conventionally-armed SCUD at an Italian island. Libya hopes to acquire or develop a longer-range missile capable of reaching Southern Europe. Iran. Iran's current delivery systems (SCUD B/Cs and CSS-8s) have a range of up to 500-km, and Tehran is seeking to produce or purchase longer range missiles. Additionally, Iran is attempting to acquire fissile material for nuclear weapons development, produces and has used chemical agents, and possesses the expertise and infrastructure to support a biological weapons program (it may have small quantities of agent available). Syria. Syria may be producing chemical weapons, and possesses the required infrastructure to support a biological weapons program. It may also be trying to develop advanced nerve agents and pursue research and development of biological weapons. It maintains SS-21, SCUD B, and SCUD C missiles with up to a 500-km range.”
Terrorism. “One of the most dangerous threats to NATO will in 2010 be terrorists' use of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear materials to inflict casualties or cause fear or massive disruption. Terrorists are more likely to use chemical and biological weapons than other unconventional weapons because they can be relatively easy to make and deploy. Moreover, a major psychological barrier to using them was crossed in 1995 when Aum Shinrikyo released a chemical agent in the Tokyo subway. To obtain a nuclear weapon, terrorists would have to steal, buy, or build one, and in each option terrorists face formidable obstacles. The high damage potential, however, makes nuclear terrorism a constant, albeit remote, threat. Two factors would increase the likelihood that the NATO states, military forces, or citizens would be threatened by WMD: New NATO Roles. New peacekeeping or other nontraditional roles assumed by NATO--either within Europe or beyond its periphery--may place coalition forces at risk from intentional or inadvertent exposure to WMD. NATO military superiority may have actually increased the threat of WMD use, since less developed countries or extremist groups may feel driven to develop and use WMD to achieve the desired impact, deter conflict, or prevent retaliation.”
Nuclear Smuggling. “Nuclear smuggling from the former Soviet Union can result in accelerated nuclear weapons development in hostile states. It could also expose the coalition to hazards such as radiological weapons, or exposure of the civilian population to smuggled materials such as cesium-137, strontium-90, and cobalt-60. These items could be used to contaminate business centers, government facilities, or transportation networks. Russia and other former Soviet republics are the most likely, but not only, potential source of such materials. South Africa and Brazil also experienced thefts or accidents involving nuclear material.”
The Narcotics and Organized Crime Threat “The interrelated threats of narcotics trafficking and international organized crime will also seriously challenge the NATO area in 2010. Narcotics. The extent of narcotics trafficking and consumption in NATO countries in 2010 will depend largely on demographics and the effectiveness of counterdrug efforts. Heroin and cocaine will remain drugs of choice, but the expanding production, distribution, and consumption of potent and affordable synthetic drugs in Europe will compound the problem. The alliance may face friction over changes in attitudes toward drug use and treatment, variations in criminal penalties, and scarcer and less effective law enforcement and judicial resources from newer East European members. The international financial system, particularly in NATO countries, will continue to be the destination for billions of narcodollars annually. Heroin trafficking routes into Europe will shift further from Turkey and the Balkans to Russia, the Baltic states, and Eastern Europe. The alliance will be challenged to ensure that new NATO members by 2010 have sufficient resources to effectively counter the flow of narcotics and to prevent the further corruption of state institutions by narcotics organizations. Spain and Italy will be less prominent entry points for Latin American cocaine, as Spain in particular continues it exemplary interdiction efforts, and the trend toward shipments directly to Eastern Europe becomes the primary route of choice. Despite an aging population among traditional NATO members, drug consumption is unlikely to have diminished, and may even increase markedly if large numbers of younger immigrants enter the region. The infusion of dirty money from the sale of drugs into the financial institutions, businesses, and property markets of NATO countries could damage both the national and international economic climates.”
Organized Crime. “The proliferation of links among international criminal organizations, coupled with the globalization of business, will provide expanded opportunities for the movement of illicit drugs, weapons, and money, and illegal immigrants. National law enforcement officials will face greater obstacles in targeting transnational criminal networks unless the alliance bolsters avenues of cooperation. Latin American cocaine traffickers, the Italian Mafia, Russian organized crime, and Nigerian criminal syndicates will have established greater cooperation in drug trafficking, arms smuggling, counterfeiting, and money laundering into and across Europe. They will gain efficiencies by specializing in their most experienced and profitable areas of operation and by exploiting the more vulnerable borders and less-regulated financial systems in the region. The entrenched presence of Eurasian organized crime in Eastern Europe and its international reach will continue to hinder the development of market-based economies and democratic political institutions unless significant headway is made in fighting corruption and enacting and enforcing legislation to counter these crimes. The sheer volume--trillions of dollars annually--of illicit proceeds from these global criminal organizations could present a threat to national economies from price and stock manipulation to banking fraud. These groups also may use their massive wealth to gain controlling interests in strategic economic sectors and buy high-level political influence. Unless NATO nations ensure that international standards exist for emerging financial technologies-cybercurrency, smart cards, electronic wallets, Internet banking-criminal organizations likely will attempt to exploit their anonymity to launder proceeds from illegal activities, break encryption codes, and counterfeit these instruments for financial gain.”
Other Transnational Threats International Economic Challenges.
“Notwithstanding the current financial turmoil in East Asia, the world
economy will be much larger in 2010 than it is today, primarily because
of faster growth in China, Latin America, and Central Europe. The spread
of information technology, increases in international trade and investment,
and demographic shifts within countries will bolster global integration
and disperse the balance of economic power. Most of these changes will
demand greater cooperation among NATO countries, while some will test the
alliance's cohesion: Chinese Power. The NATO countries probably
will face new challenges as China's commitment to economic and institutional
reform enables it to grow faster than many of its regional neighbors and,
as a result, to emerge as a much stronger and more influential world economic
and military power. Oil Disruptions. NATO countries also
are likely to face a heightened threat of major oil supply disruptions
if, as we expect, a larger percentage of the world's oil supplies come
from the volatile Persian Gulf region. Barring an unexpected surge in non-OPEC
oil production, the share of the world's oil supplies coming from the Persian
Gulf probably will rise about 10 percent between now and 2010, in part
because of increased demand from faster growing economies in Latin America,
the former Soviet Union, and China. Tight Military Budgets.
Rapid economic growth outside of the North Atlantic community and budget
shortfalls in many NATO countries will increase the likelihood of a large
shift in the global allocation of military expenditures, potentially boosting
the relative military and political influence of countries such as Russia,
Taiwan, India, and China. Many Western European countries will have a harder
time financing military expenditures as large aging populations, shrinking
labor pools, and declining birth rates pressure already cash-strapped governments
to boost social welfare outlays on dependent populations. If NATO defense
outlays decline, and if non-NATO countries maintain the ratio of military
spending to GDP at 1995 levels, the NATO share of global defense outlays
will fall over ten percent by 2010. Central European Tensions.
The NATO countries may confront increased strains in Central Europe if
growing income disparities within the region boost tensions between the
haves and have nots. We expect economic disparities between nations in
Europe to be significantly skewed in 2010 as reforming countries like the
Czech Republic and Poland boost economic growth and attain significantly
higher living standards while others--such as Bosnia, Romania, Bulgaria,
and countries in Central Asia--fall behind.
Financial Strains. Tensions over international financial rules could
strain the alliance. International financial linkages will have grown in
size, importance, and sophistication. By 2010, if not sooner, the North
Atlantic countries along with other economic powers are likely to face
the task of shaping a new international monetary system that will reduce
the potential disruptions of financial flows on the global economy. As
with previous attempts at multilateral monetary reform, forming new rules
governing international financial flows and currency adjustments is likely
to generate potentially serious tensions among NATO members.”
Illicit Migration Threat. “Illicit migration will continue to plague NATO in 2010 as migrants fleeing overpopulation, poverty, natural disasters, and conflict in developing countries seek better standards of living in wealthier NATO states.”
"Wild Cards" That Could Alter Threat Scenario “Given the dramatic changes of the past decade, a number of lower probability but high impact scenarios are also conceivable in the years ahead. Among them are: Russia. A Russia that steps away from its current direction of reform would probably overshadow the above transnational threats. Intra-NATO Strains. Strains among current or future NATO members that erupted, or threatened to erupt, into conflict could disrupt the Alliance. Other Conflicts. The outbreak of a chemical, biological, or nuclear confrontation in the Middle East, South Asia, or former Soviet Union would have far-reaching political, military, economic, and environmental ramifications. Radical Ideologies. The taking hold in one or more NATO countries of extreme ideologies--anti-materialism, Islamic extremism, militarism, or some new unforeseen "ism"--could weaken NATO from within, just as the onset of anti-Western ideologies outside NATO could threaten the Alliance. Economic Crisis. A spillover of financial instability from any source over the next 12 years could slow world growth and plunge NATO countries into recession. Terrorist Sponsors. The terrorist threat picture could change by a radical new regime outside the NATO area or, conversely, a shift in policy by a country such as Iran now supporting terrorism. Information Warfare Risk. The risk would grow markedly and sooner if a country set as a priority developing a significant offensive information warfare capability or if protective technologies failed to keep up with offensive ones. Illicit Migration. The threat would rise rapidly with a surge in one or more factors that drive it, such as a major economic downturn, natural disaster, or regional conflict on Europe's periphery. Climate Change. A sudden and extreme climate change--such as global warming by 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit--would affect agriculture and energy use and have other potentially wide-ranging effects on NATO countries.”
Implications of Transnational Threats for NATO “Short of these more radical scenarios, as NATO moves toward 2010, its overriding challenge probably will be to strike a balance between maintaining an adequate conventional and nuclear military capability to counter aggression against any Alliance member and strengthening its ability to meet the above more likely range of transnational threats.”
Conclusion “In sum, many of the threats to NATO that have become more pronounced since the end of the Cold War are likely to grow further in the years ahead. While the exact threat scenario is difficult to project, such threats as terrorism, threats to information systems, WMD proliferation, and international narcotics trafficking and organized crime will probably be prominent, and a number of other challenges could appear on the screen with little notice. Moreover, the combination of transnational threats is likely to be more complex and challenging for NATO to manage.”
A Revisit of Vision 2020 for Malaysia. A revisit of a world reknown scenario from the book, “Off the Map – An Expedition Deep into Imperialism, the Global Economy, and Other Earthy Whereabouts”. Author: Chellis Glendinning, published in 1999 by Random House, Canada.
In the book, “Off the Map - An Expedition Deep into Imperialism, the
Global Economy, and Other Earthly Wherabouts", the author questions the
nature of imperialism - the dominant political force on the planet for
centuries. Chellis Glendinning “charts the course of empire across
countries and continents and on into individual minds, hearts, and bodies.”
The author reveals imperialism's legacy, questioning how the map was altered,
empire as map, and what is "off the map". A huge section of the book
is devoted to "What is Globalization?" Globalization:
In the future, "…the map is altered. The gold-etched designs and tall ships
and roaring lions disappear from sight. Even the opaque maps of the
classroom fade into obsolescence. New maps are made, state-of-the-art,
lines and numbers, computer simulation, digital coordinates. A trillionth
of a meter, 3 million light years away. Cyberspace curved space 750
Kilobits per second--- measuring, modeling, predicting, printout the world,
the Earth, the universe. In the 21st Century, the making of maps,
it is something different; map making, it is something the same." The author
traces many countries and future visions of those that have gained and
are gaining independence from imperialism. The author reviews the world-renown
Malaysia 2020 Vision (see annotation in this bibliography); acknowledging
Malaysia as a success story after independence from Great Britain after
World War II: “Malaysia, an "undeveloped" country, stepped into thorny
terrain. "It had been mowed over in everyway, from the psychological
to the economic, and it was now attempting to unfurl its flag into a world
busily restructuring into a subtler form of the same old bag. .... "But
take Vision 2020: Now here's a plan.....A plan to transform Malaysia, with
its paradisiacal rain forests, and rice paddies and rubber trees, into
the planet's most seductive techno-business park. The Multimedia
Super Corridor would link the immense new Kuala Lumpur International Airport
with two newly constructed cities -- a digital friendly capital called
Putrajaya and an InfoTech center named Cyberjaya -- all knit together
by fiber optics and managed by a GATT_ ready code of cyber-laws. Good-bye
rubber tappers, basket weavers, and thatched villages. Hello CEOs, Banana
Republic-clad info workers and one-bedroom apartments. The land would
be coated in concrete. Super freeways would glide into the horizon like
boulevards at Versailles. There would be corporate headquarters galore,
computer-smart campuses, borderless marketing plexus, and national cyber-cards
to access everything from IA to overdue video-rental fines. What cattle
are lift would inhabit patches of pasture like one-bedroom condos and graze
on plastic shopping bags. Vision 2020: its being thrust down the
throat of reality by Malaysia's prime minister, Dr. Mahathir bin Mohammed,
who has already distinguished himself by supplanting the rubber-trees of
the north to build a modern multiversity, erecting the world's two tallest
spires, building superhighways where only footpaths existed before, jamming
them with the indigenous-build Proton, and jacking up the gross national
product from $34 billion in 1980 to $123 billion in 1995.
It's happening. "
Pentagon See China’s Forces as no Foreseeable Threat to US. Pentagon Report Commissioned by Congress – “Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act”. Public Law 106-113.
China is modernizing its armed forces to counter military threats from
technologically superior enemies, but ''significant shortcomings'' in its
weapons and training will leave it unable to challenge the United States
for ''an indefinite period of time,'' according to the Pentagon report.
China's military modernization efforts are increasing its ability to threaten
Taiwan, especially with long-range missiles. But the study
concluded that the People’s Liberation Army, is limited in fighter aircraft
and amphibious ships, would not fare well if ordered to invade Taiwan in
the near future. The study analyzed the Chinese military, Chinese planning,
strategy, potential “electromagnetic warfare” – attacks on computer and
communications networks, and, intelligence findings of China studies of
the 1991 Persian Gulf War and NATO’s war against Yugoslavia.
The report describes scenarios in phased timeframes as an estimate of Taiwan’s
ability to sustain air, sea, and ground operations in the face of a China
attack. Short term (2000-2005)
“The PLA will have only a limited capability to conduct integrated operations
against Taiwan. The PLA conducts interservice exercises at the tactical
level, but the services are not fully integrated into a cohesive combat
force. This weakness would contribute to Taiwan’s ability to sustain
air, sea and ground operations in the face of a PLA attack in the short
term. Maintaining air superiority over the Taiwan Strait would be an essential
part of any Chinese effort to mount a military operation against Taiwan.
China currently has an overwhelming quantitative advantage over Taiwan
in military aircraft and is expected to retain that advantage beyond 2005.
On the other hand, Taiwan's more modern aircraft will provide it
with a qualitative advantage that should be retained at least through that
period. PLA EW operations against air defense radars, disruption
of command and control networks, and/or large scale conventional SRBM and
LACM strikes against airfields and SAM sites could reduce the effectiveness
of Taiwan’s air defenses. The overall capability of the TAF would depend
on the implementation of sound pilot training, sufficient logistic and
maintenance support, and the ability of the TAF to integrate satisfactorily
several disparate airframes into a cohesive, operational fighting force.
A PLA amphibious invasion of Taiwan probably would be preceded by a naval
blockade, air assaults and missile attacks on Taiwan. Airborne, airmobile,
and special operations forces likely would conduct simultaneous attacks
to the rear of Taiwan's coastal defenses to seize a port, preferably in
close proximity to an airfield. Seizing a beachhead likely would
constitute a supporting attack. An airborne envelopment would facilitate
amphibious operations by cutting off Taiwan's coastal defenders from
supply lines and forcing them to fight in two directions. China likely
would seek to suppress Taiwan’s air defenses and establish air superiority
over an invasion corridor in the Taiwan Strait. The PLA’s success in establishing
and maintaining a foothold on the island would rest on a variety of intangibles
to include personnel and equipment attrition rates on both sides
of the Strait; the interoperability of PLA forces; and, the ability of
China’s logistic system to support adequately optempo operations.
China’s numerical superiority in submarines constitutes a threat to the
Taiwan Navy, but Taiwan is acquiring advanced ASW technology that likely
will improve its ability to counter PLA submarines operating off
the coast of Taiwan. Nonetheless, the Taiwan Navy probably would have an
extremely difficult time opposing a naval blockade with its existing
resources, which include many obsolescent World War II-era ships. Barring
third-party intervention, the China’s quantitative advantage over
Taiwan’s Navy in surface and sub-surface assets would probably prove overwhelming
over time.
Maintaining air superiority over the Taiwan Strait would be an essential
part of any Chinese effort to mount a military operation against Taiwan.
China currently has an overwhelming quantitative advantage over Taiwan
in military aircraft and is expected to retain that advantage beyond 2005.
In the mid-term (2005-2010): The PLA is expected to field
a force that is more capable of conducting integrated operations against
Taiwan, but probably would still have significant shortcomings in
this area. Regardless of the timing, a successful invasion would exact
tremendous losses and require a massive commitment of military and civilian
assets. Additionally, China would have to be willing to accept the almost
certain political, economic, diplomatic, and military costs that
such a course of action would produce. If current shipbuilding trends continue
into the mid-term, the PLA navy will not possess significantly greater
amphibious lift capacity for troop transport. This trend will continue
to act as a constraint on a full-scale amphibious invasion., but would
not preclude the use of other assets, such as ballistic missiles and submarines,
in an attempt to reunify the island by force. China is aware of its weaknesses
in lift capacity and is giving greater attention to the role of civilian
assets in an amphibious invasion. Recent PLA military exercises that probably
incorporated a Taiwan scenario have featured fishing boats and merchant
ships in a strong supporting role. The creation of such a reserve, if realized,
would improve China’s ability to conduct an amphibious invasion of Taiwan.
Beijing reportedly also is stepping up efforts to refit merchant ships
to make up for the shortage in naval landing vessels. Weather constraints
would affect the timing of any invasion attempt. In addition, mud
flats along the western shore of Taiwan would restrict the number of available
landing beaches.. In the long term (2010-2020):
China’s qualitative edge over Taiwan’s military forces could continue to
increase. By 2010 and after, China could gain greater operational experience
with many new systems. These systems include advanced air superiority fighters,
air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, and naval combatants. The
PLA also could improve its ability to conduct combined arms operations,
integrating air, land, naval and missile forces to a higher degree than
currently observed. Other capabilities, such as aerial refueling, AWACS
and AEW operations are expected to be more fully developed during this
time frame. The change in the dynamic equilibrium of forces over
the long term will depend largely on whether Taiwan is able to meet or
exceed developments on the mainland with programs of its own. Its success
in deterring potential Chinese aggression will be dependent on its continued
acquisition of modern arms, technology and equipment, and its ability
to integrate and operate these systems effectively, and its ability to
deal with a number of other systemic problems- -primarily the recruitment
and retention of technically-qualified personnel and the maintenance of
an effective logistics system--lest Taipei once again risk losing its qualitative
edge.
Department
of Defense Report on Weapons of Mass Destruction. Report to Congress
Volume I, Domestic Preparedness Program in the Defense Against Weapons
of Mass Destruction. http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/domestic/5.html
The following is an excerpt from a prepared statement before
the Senate Armed Services Committee
On “ Global Threats and Challenges: The Decades Ahead”
Lieutenant General Patrick M. Hughes, U.S. Army, Director, Defense Intelligence
Agency, Washington, D.C., 2000.
“Though less certain, I am increasingly concerned that adversaries -- notably North Korea and Iran -- will develop and field nuclear-armed missiles with intercontinental range. This more diverse and complex strategic nuclear threat environment affects Cold War thinking about nuclear deterrence, policy, force posture, and strategic targeting. The threat posed by regional weapons of mass destruction (WMD) -- already the greatest threat to deployed U.S. forces -- will increase. Several rogue states will likely join the nuclear club, chemical and biological weapons will be widely proliferated, and the numbers of longer-range theater ballistic and cruise missiles will increase significantly, particularly in the Middle East. This dynamic has the potential to fundamentally alter theater force balances, the nature of regional war and conflict, and U.S. contingency planning and execution. Large regional forces remain a substantial concern. A number of key regional powers -- China and possibly Russia at the high end, but also an unimpeded Iraq, Iran, India, Pakistan, and, at least through the near term, North Korea -- will field conventional military forces that are large and well equipped by today’s standards. The degree to which these ‘industrial age’ forces can adopt and apply selected ‘high-end capabilities’ -- WMD, missiles, satellite reconnaissance, global positioning, precision strike, advanced radar, and so forth -- remains to be seen. In the right regional context, they could pose a significant threat to U.S. mission success, particularly in the period beyond 2010. The emergence of a new threat paradigm, and changes in the nature of warfare itself, underpin all of the trends outlined above and are having a profound impact on U.S. military missions, strategy, organizations, planning, operations, and force development. It is difficult to predict precisely how these trends will play out over the next two decades. That uncertainty creates an extremely challenging planning environment for U.S. policy makers and force planners.”
Under Title XIV, Congress directed a program to enhance the capability
of the Federal Government to prevent and respond to terrorist incidents
involving weapons of mass destruction. This report covers in detail, program
scope, the elements of preparedness, statistical elements of
response, program implementation; and a training support for 120
US cities, - for all weapons of mass destruction - chemical, nuclear, and
biological. The Department of Justice and FBI have developed,
with interagency concurrence, three distinct scenarios that help guide
the coordination of agencies: Scenario 1: No Notice:
“The no-notice scenario assumes that an agent has been released. FEMA,
acting in support of the DoJ/FBI, will request DoD assistance to manage
the consequences of the incident in accordance with established interagency
guidelines and DoD Directive 3025.15. DoD will utilize a quick response
team to deploy and assess the incident site and coordinate for additional
augmentation. Within this scenario, the CBQRF will be deployed upon notification
and at the direction of the SECDEF to support the LFA. The number of individuals
deployed may vary and the capabilities may change based on the location
of the incident, existing assets available to first responders, and proximity
of Federal assets.” Scenario 2: Credible Threat:
“The credible threat scenario assumes that intelligence sources have
indicated a high probability of a known threat and that deployment of a
response force is warranted prior to the actual use of a WMD. Within this
scenario, the FBI will request WMD EOD and technical assistance from DoD
special mission units as defined under DoD plans and interagency guidelines.
Those elements will be called upon by the FBI to detect, render safe, and
turn over for disposition any rendered safe WMD devices with EOD potential.
Upon request from FEMA, acting in support of the FBI, DoD will deploy the
CBQRF, whose focus will be the consequence management aspects of the incident.
This response will include a command and control element, appropriate forces
from TEU, and the US Marine Corps’ CBIRF, reinforced as necessary with
additional specialized teams for both crisis and consequence management.
The task organization for this scenario is directed by the SECDEF, after
coordination with the LFA, who will coordinate with local and state
official.” Scenario 3: The Planned Event. The planned event
scenario assumes that predetermined WMD response elements will be prepositioned
based upon coordination with the LFAs. This scenario is usually associated
with special events such as political conventions, inaugurations or large
public gatherings of personnel that would be vulnerable to a terrorist
incident. The planned event scenario response may include a larger command
and control element and will include an additional response team reinforced,
if necessary, by trained medical, decontamination, and monitoring teams.
The task organization for this response will also be directed by the SECDEF,
after coordination with the LFA, who will coordinate with local and state
official. Based on the threat scenario, a three-tiered consequence
management organization and response capability will be deployed to augment
existing first responder’s capabilities.
Scenarios on the Future of South Florida. Report commissioned by Miami-Dade , Broward, and Palm Beach Counties.
Florida citizens were at the center of the elections storm in November. As a consequence, they are now demanding reform of their election system and fresh perspectives of their future. This report a launching pad of dialogue among citizen groups in three counties – Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties. The process involved three stages: scenario learning, extensive interviews with county officials and experts, and a two-day scenario workshop. Each scenario in this set of four scenarios, builds on timeline visions from the years 2000 - 2003; 2004 - 2007; and 2007 - 2010, based on a matrix of two spectrums - level of social cohesion (declining, more conflicts, separation verses improving, cooperative, integrative) and growing internationalization of the economy (slowing, contracting, adjusting versus fater, vibrant, complementary). Following a comprehensive set of key implications, matrices, and factors that lead to positive futures, such as, for example, “Many South Florida residents are open to working with people who are different and are willing to cross the barriers that exist between diverse groups. All residents, regardless of economic status, race or county of residence, should be fully supported so that they can grow."; plus key performance indicators to track each scenario. Scenario 1) “Rio in South Florida" “ This is a world where over the next decade South Florida continues to take on characteristics commonly found in so-called “Banana Republics” of Latin America. In such a scenario, vast discrepancies exist between the levels of wealth and overall type of lifestyle associated with very rich and very poor. Yet such differences are often tolerated and overlooked. Economic and political power exists at the top and is generally controlled by tight clans. To a large extent, South Florida’s governing style, not to mention its extremely culturally diverse population, varies dramatically to what is found in the rest of the United States. The economy of the region remains strong and increasingly international with strong ties to expanding Latin American economies. Decisions regarding the infrastructure and environment of the region generally support continued growth. However, all of this sits upon a precarious, violent and oppressive social environment fraught with conflict and mistrust.” Scenario 2) Epicenter of the West Is South Florida part of the Southeastern U.S or is it the northwestern capital of Latin America? In this scenario the answer is definitely the latter. In this world, the region becomes a global success story and successfully anchors the U.S. as an emerging economic center for Latin America. Other areas of the U.S. may play a role, but the big plays and big decisions are made in South Florida. The region solidifies its position by showing effective leadership, genuinely innovative approaches to social problems and responsible action on the environmental front. Smart investments are made in infrastructure and a vivid, cultural diversity emerges that makes the region vibrant and attractive on a global scale. Scenario 3) Falling Off the Edge: Probably the worst part of a slow death is that, for short periods of time, there may be evidence that things are improving. This is a world in which South Florida never heals from its social wounds, and instead, such problems eat away at its economic vitality. By the end of the decade the region becomes a place that is clearly not on the leading edge of any dynamic trend; instead new wealth is created in other places. The region becomes a third choice in the race to be one of nodes of the global networked economy. Opportunities for growth go elsewhere because the region never effectively addresses its problems or makes the kind of long-term investments in human or physical capital that generates deep and lasting competitive advantages. Scenario 4) The Happy Siesta: Sometimes the best way to put an end to an argument is for one person to leave the room. This is a world where some people leave South Florida, resulting in a poorer place, but one that is quieter and more peaceful. In many ways richer for the people who stick around and make things work. The race for economic growth finds other places in Florida, the U.S. and the international region. A larger Latin presence emerges in South Florida and puts its cultural stamp on everything. This works well for those in that diverse culture, and for those who are comfortable adjusting to it, but the drain of the people leaving takes it toll. Once this stabilizes, people find room for renewal and find solutions to problems that now exist on a smaller scale.
The African Time Machine. WIRED November 2000. Institute for the Future.
Discussion of the trends derived from the African continent that,
"like a vast time machine" seem to be "slowly retreating' back to the 19th
century.” Description of the AIDS epidemic, geological disadvantage,
poverty; comparisons of certain pockets of Africa as worst case; others
as best case but not as good as say, the UNDP numbers of the life expectancy,
education, and GDP numbers of a say, Canada, or US, or Norway.
According to the author, the vision for the 21st Century is startling:
"The worst tragedy in human history is brewing in the heart of the continent.
" The author concludes with three long term scenarios of Africa:
Scenario 1: Best Case: “So where is Africa headed? There is
no good scenario for Africa in the next several decades. Perhaps the best
case is a slow decline and gradua lrecovery -- somewhat like Latin America
in the '70s and '80s. But even that would take massive foreign investment,
successful peace-keeping efforts, sustained engagement by the wealthy nations,
a new African policy that emphasizes an end to corruption and violence,
and the rise of democracy and markets. But there is no sign that even such
a dismal scenario is plausible. Scenario 2: Massive Mobility:
“Far more likely is a massive catastrophe and the response to it. Devastation
on a scale difficult to imagine is gradually unfolding, driven in part
by the AIDS epidemic. At least 25 million Africans are already infected,
including more than a third of the adults in Botswana. Life expectancy
is plummeting: in Zimbabwe and Namibia it will soon be 33 years. War and
the disruption of the agricultural economy compound the suffering with
starvation and violence. Unless something almost unimaginable happens,
as many as 100 million Africans may die over the next decade. The response
to this immense tragedy is likely to be mainly nothing. There will be many
international conferences held and even some promises made.
But there will be little action and even less fulfillment of promises.
In such a scenario, over the next few decades the downward momentum will
burn itself out as little remains and the decreasing population becomes
less prone to disease. For the rest of us it will be another Holocaust,
leaving us wondering how we could have let it happen. Why did we turn our
backs even as CNN shoved it in our faces? Racism and an apparent lack of
national interests will surely be among the reasons. Scenario
3: Rescue Effort: We could be surprised, if the drama gets bad enough.
Maybe an increasingly wealthy world will launch a serious international
rescue effort. The only problem is that no one really knows what that means
and the result would almost certainly be some form of neocolonialism. This
time, of course, the benign colonial administrators would likely come from
the United Nations.
Scenarios for Russia: From Short-term Greed to Long-term Need? Heinrick Vogel
The author, Heinrich Vogel, is a political economist specializing in Russia and Eastern Europe. In this article, he re-visits the scenarios of the original book, " Russia 2010 and What it Means for the World" by authors Dan Yergin and Thane Gusatafson (please refer to this scenario bibliography for an annotation of the complete set of scenarios). Yergin & Gustafdon are confident that by 2010, the time of troubles and intermittent chaos will be over. "They call this economic outcome by the Russian word chudo (miracle), but they are careful not to identify it with the performance of postwar Germany or Japan. The underlying assumptions are clear: to reemerge from chaotic drift Russia needs strong leadership, stable money, property rights, external support, lots of investment in the right places, and a minimal consensus between winners and losers not to rock the boat"
Where are we today, seven years after Yergin and Gustafdon published
the book in 1993? Vogel examines in detail, Russia in the present:
“ The political spin-off from the recent economic rebound, the "Putin-factor"
(a near religious trust in the new leadership's potential), remains relevant
although it has already been put to harsh tests. Continued fighting in
Chechnya keeps Russian troop casualties at non-negligible levels. In addition,
prestigious symbols of Russia's technological capacities and global standing
have suffered painful blows: the orbital station Mir was saved from collapse
only by international sponsors; the flagship of maritime great power status,
the submarine Kursk, was sunk by a technical failure or even friendly missiles;
and Ostankino, Moscow's key transmitter station, fell mute after a devastating
fire. And yet, high ratings in recent Russian opinion polls signal unabating
trust in Putin. The balance sheet for the human dimension of stuck reforms
and decayed infrastructure is much sadder. The World Health Organization
ranks Russia at 131 in an international list of per capita expenditures
on health—just ahead of Sudan. Life expectancy and birth rates are falling:
the population shrunk from 148.3 million in 1992 to 145 million presently
and is expected to continue declining by 750,000 annually until 2010. Demographers
predict that in 2020 the world's largest country will end up with a population
of only 125 million. The Russian government promised to spend $125 million
during the next two years on a program aimed at increasing the birth rate.
But the fight over priorities for the revitalization and modernization
of social welfare programs has only begun and resources are limited: social
welfare is only receiving 9 percent of the total budget, compared to Western
nations which average 33 percent at much higher levels of revenue.
Vogel's Vision of the Future of Russia: This is not the place
to elaborate new sets of scenarios; Yergin's and Gustafson's reasoning
of 1993 comes surprisingly close to the historical course of events. But
we are still ten years from 2010, and the odds are by no means comforting.
Russia may well be the object of yet another strange experiment in social
engineering when it comes to bridging the gap between the nineteenth and
twenty-first centuries, between preindustrial ways of life and the new
economy. And this experiment will be different from cases like India because
it implies continued social decline and reverse urbanization for major
parts of a society which, one generation ago, had been educated in a belief
system of inevitable growth and prosperity for all. … Whatever political
visions of mobilization by maximum growth, strong statehood, and primacy
of the military sector make Putin and his buddies tick, their hands are
tied by the painful constraints of capital gap and physical and social
decay. It is very unlikely that the trajectory of average long-term growth
will exceed 4 percent annually while hopes for a more democratic state
will be jeopardized by the temptations of authoritarianism. Whatever the
political response, Russian dreams of restoring the country's great power
and status will remain dreams. And Western politicians, with their hopes
for a predictable partnership with Russia, are heading for interesting
and uncertain times.
Wired Scenarios of BioWar. Ed Regis, WIRED Magazine.
According to this article, some of the most leading-edge biotech thinking is now being done not by scientists and academics, but by the military. The conference, titled Biotechnology Workshop 2020, hosted by the Army War Collage, Carlisle, Pennsylvania – home for the Army’s Center for Strategic Leadership – focuses on battles to be fought in the future. These battles would not be limited to the hand grenades, assault rifles, and land mines of the 20th century - they would feature entirely new categories of weapons, munitions based on the biotech advances that would occur in the interim. Defense Planning Scenario 1. “July 2020, and Turkey is at war with Iran and Syria. The latter two countries, sick of their constant water shortages, have invaded Turkey and taken control of a major dam and reservoir. Turkey, after mobilizing its troops, calls upon the United States for assistance. The US sends a total of 300,000 troops, plus navy and air force backup units, into the area. Together, the combined US forces are supposed to (1) throw the invaders out of Turkey, (2) advance into Iran and Syria to incapacitate the main forces of those countries, and (3) "locate and neutralize Iranian and Syrian nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, their means of delivery, and their production facilities." Defense Planning Scenario 2. This scenario is not much different than the defense-planning scenario, except for the fact that Iran and Syria were now threatening to drop a nuclear bomb on a major Turkish population center. “The US, in response, sends in eight army assault units plus special operations forces, to (1) attack enemy headquarters, (2) destroy their command, control, and logistics sites, and (3) wipe out their weapons facilities. In July 2020, however, this is no problem. First of all, our foot soldiers are protected by biocamouflage, clothing that changes color automatically, allowing the troops to visually merge with the background. Their outer garments sense the ambient temperature and harmonize with it, rendering the wearer imperceptible to temperature-sensing devices, heat-seeking weapons, or infrared detectors. The troops become as invisible as chameleons, for the same reasons, and by essentially the same biological mechanisms. The enemy, however, is not invisible - not to the army's newly developed artificial smart noses. The Americans ferret out their adversaries by means of biosensors, biologically based olfactory sensing units that discover the presence, location, and strength of opposing troop concentrations by detecting - believe it or not - their odors, the characteristic airborne molecules or "downstream effluents" they discharge. Having pinpointed the enemy battalions, the US troops now advance toward them and deploy a full range of nonlethal, nonhuman bioweapons - antimaterial microbes, for example. These genetically engineered organisms have been programmed to eat the rubber from enemy vehicles, decimating their tires, engine gaskets, coolant hoses, and fuel lines. Other antimaterial microorganisms infiltrate fuel tanks and turn their stores of gas and diesel oil to masses of incombustible jelly.” For continuation of this detailed scenario, see original article. Defense Planning Scenario 3: “July, 2020: Brazil invades Venezuela seeking to acquire its newly discovered oil reserves. Venezuela appeals to the United States for help, and we respond by sending in the biotroops. This time, according to the scenario, we've got technology to burn: biotechnology, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, robotics - all of it has been developed and has succeeded beyond the wildest expectations. Wars, therefore, are now conducted long-range and by remote control. Robotic combat and remote telepresence have replaced traditional ground warfare. On this battlefield of the future, intelligent robots outnumber humans.” For continuation of this detailed scenario, see original article.
Enemies Go Nuclear. Waller Douglas, Time South Pacific 06/08/98 Issue 23, p40, 3p, 1 chart, 3c,2bw.
This article discusses whether the rivalry between India and Pakistan could start the world's first nuclear war. The Clinton administration's secret research of scenarios depicting how the two nations might stumble into an atomic exchange; example of a scenario. It depicts the fear of the United States government that both sides will move into the next stage, threatening each other directly by placing nuclear warheads atop missiles. Scenario: Enemies Go Nuclear: “It's no longer just a theoretical possibility now that Pakistan has exploded its nuclear devices. It could go like this: Muslim militants in Kashmir, covertly backed by Islamabad, step up their insurgency in the disputed Himalayan territory, where several Indian and Pakistani soldiers already die each week in cross-border skirmishes. India lashes back, sending its troops across the Pakistani border to chase militants. Islamabad retaliates with heavy artillery shelling. Conventional war breaks out and quickly escalates to the point where both sides resort to their nukes, and 15-kiloton, Hiroshima-size bombs are dropped by warplanes or lofted by missiles on densely populated cities like Bombay and Karachi. Many thousands of civilians die, and deadly fallout spreads throughout the subcontinent. Officials all over the globe hope that such a frightening specter will sober both countries into backing off their nuclear one-upmanship. But for the moment, each seems determined to match the other, bomb for bomb.” See original article for more on strategy, thoughts on nuclear war worldwide, theoretical possibilities; and state of mutual assured destruction (MAD).
Database Nation: The Death of Privacy in the 21st Century. Garfinkle Simpson Byte, 03/13/2000.
The Death of Privacy in the 21st Century is a compelling account of
how invasive technologies will affect lives in the coming years.
The Death of Privacy: In the 21st century, continuing advances in
technology endanger privacy in ways never before imagined. “It is common
for direct marketers and retailers to track every purchase; surveillance
cameras observe movements; mobile phones report locations to those who
want to track; government eavesdroppers listen in on private communications;
misused medical records turn our bodies and our histories against us; and
linked databases assemble detailed consumer profiles used to predict and
influence our behavior. Computers have built-in bar code readers
and a signature pad. When a delivery is made, a UPS driver scans the bar
code on each package and then has the person receiving the delivery sign
for the package. The bar code number and the handwritten signature are
recorded inside the DIAD, and ultimately uploaded to the company's databanks.”
In 2010: society shifts toward a different track - Instead of relying
on technology to track people, business and government considers social
solutions
such as using relatively weak identification systems and very strong
penalties for institutions engaging in violations of privacy and individuals
in identity fraud. “Statutory damages are created not just for the bank
or business that was defrauded, but also for the person who had their identity
appropriated. Biometrics becomes an omnipresent part of the future.
But because of their recognized limitations, and because of the legitimate
civil-liberties concerns that these systems create, society will probably
not experience the full realization of a totally biometrically tracked
future. Instead of tracking people, institutions will increasingly turn
to the much simpler project of tracking things.”
Anti-Nuclear Physicians Publish Doomsday Scenario. Associated Press, April 30, 1998, Section: National, Edition: first, page B9.
Doctors paint a picture of Russia’s spitefully launching missiles, killing
6.8 million Americans. A doomsday scenario, written by an anti-nuclear
physicians group and published in the New England Journal of Medicine,
“reads more like a Hollywood script than a scientific paper.” The
Physicians for Social Responsibility argue that nuclear accidents can happen
because Russia and the United States maintain several thousand strategic
warheads each, many on high alert. The weapons' targets were only symbolically
removed in 1994.
Doomsday Scenario: “The first nuclear missiles would come from a rogue
Russian submarine making an unauthorized launch. After the first missile
broke the surface of the Barents Sea, 6.8 million Americans would have
just 30 minutes before a ``giant fire storm'' turned them to dust. Then
all-out nuclear war could break out, erasing billions from Earth. ``There's
an assumption of a crew-wide collusion and cooperation,'' Bruce Blair,
one of the paper's authors, acknowledged. ``It would require a conspiracy
of some magnitude to pull this off.'' The crew would not only have
to breach command-and-control protocol, but also gain access to top secret
launching codes. According to the scenario, a Delta-IV sub patrolling the
Barents Sea north of Russia launches 16 missiles, each armed with four
100-kiloton nuclear warheads -- each warhead eight times the strength of
Hiroshima. Assuming a 25 percent failure rate, a dozen missiles would hit
eight U.S. cities at night -- Washington, New York, Atlanta, Boston, Chicago,
Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle – killing nearly everyone at ground
zero, or 6.8 million people. ``There may be a rare survivor, but essentially
everyone dies,'' said Dr. Ira Helfand, a co-author who estimated another
6 million to 12 million would die of radiation sickness in the following
month. ``This could lead to all-out nuclear war,'' he added. The report
said billions could die worldwide. The bombing would create ``a giant fire
storm with hurricane-force winds'' and boiling air temperatures, later
followed by deadly epidemics of illness and infectious diseases among refugees,
the report said. Most experts believe a more plausible scenario for an
accidental post-Cold War nuclear confrontation would involve defending
against a false warning indicating Russian or U.S. missiles were in the
air.
Nuclear Scenario Alarming to Think Tank. David L. Marcus, Boston Globe, March 21, 1998 Section: National/Foreign Edition: Third Page:A3.
For two days at the National Defense University in Washington, several of America's veteran intelligence specialists enacted this ``loose nukes'' scenario. The lessons they learned were chilling, according to a report issued. The exercise was designed to test how US intelligence specialists and scientists would work together, how international laws would hold up, and whether US agencies monitoring the borders would detect the entrance of illegal nuclear materials. The simulation is part of a long-term study in global organized crime supervised by William H. Webster, former director of the CIA and FBI. Wild Atom Scenario: “It's the winter of 2001 and President Clinton's successor knows that criminals have stolen highly-enriched uranium and plutonium from a Russian nuclear weapons complex. Then comes worse news: Terrorists are planning an attack on the United States. The new president and his advisers have to decide how much to tell the American public and whether to close ports and airports. And they don't even know the worst part: A freighter is steaming across the Atlantic with a nuclear device that a radical Islamic group plans to detonate in the Baltimore harbor. The action starts with a ``Mafia boss'' selling stolen Russian plutonium to Iran. The plutonium is then filched by the ``Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group,'' which plans to target US troops in Saudi Arabia and a US harbor city.”
Bracing
for California’s Changing Landscape – Scenarios of California in 2020.
Richard
Thau, The San Francisco Chronicle, 11/21/99.
IN 2020 Anglo Boomers and Young Latinos will be in the majority, with
both groups maneuvering for resources and political power. To avoid a power
struggle, both groups must take steps now to close the age and cultural
gap.
California’s Changing Landscape: “In 2020 and beyond, the biggest contingents of elderly Americans and of Latinos will both live in California. As their respective growing populations increasingly crowd out the remaining non-elderly and non-Hispanic citizenry, both groups will be jockeying for resources and power. In one ominous scenario, the tensions will split the state in two: A Southern California and a Northern California, a Hispanic/Asian California and a California for the rest, particularly if today's residents don't recognize that two seismic demographic forces are at work, ones with real geographic and political consequences. While Strauss' scenario thankfully remains only that, there are reasons to fear that California may be in for a bumpy ride. A driving issue is the lingering resentment over Proposition 187, which attempted to deny certain government benefits to illegal immigrants -- mostly of Hispanic heritage. And Proposition 227, which effectively ends bilingual education, remains a sore point for some Latinos who view it as an Anglo-driven attempt to deny their children a quality education. These tensions are likely to be further exacerbated by increased demands from the elderly for retirement income. In order to provide full Social Security benefits to a growing elderly population, payroll taxes will have to rise by as much as 25 percent to 30 percent. Projected Medicare costs will push those increases even higher. These increased taxes inevitably will be paid by a growing number of younger Hispanic workers, some of whom may begin wondering why, when they're having trouble making ends meet, their tax dollars continue to flow to Anglo elders who never showed much fondness for them -- and who may be economically better off than they are.” An Alternative Scenario: “One way to lessen the likelihood that there will be elderly vs. Latino fights over future resources in 2020 is to ensure that every Californian, and, indeed, every American, is prepared to live for several decades in old age on more than just Social Security. Is there anything that can be done to help avoid a young vs. old conflict, when a disproportionate number of the old are Anglo and the young are Hispanic? Yes. In this scenario, the study shows Latinos and the elderly recognizing each other: leaders in both the elderly and Hispanic communities must take the initiative now to recognize each other's growing strength. Regular contact may help prepare certain Hispanic Boomer leaders to take on a mediating role to quell future tensions. The solution is to know each other: people reject what they don't understand. Boomers become more familiar with Hispanic culture, tradition and mores, and more sensitive to them as the "Hispanicizing" of the popular culture continues in 2020. Ken Dychtwald, president of Emeryville-based Age Wave, was one of the first to suggest solutions that turned out successful in this world: build a national elder corps. That is, recruiting elders to volunteer in communities with young adults so they "not only can help fix America but can connect with its youth." More and more, there is learning from Latinos' family-oriented culture: Hispanics have much to teach Anglos about how to deal with the elderly. Hispanics always recognized that caring for the elderly is about more than money. Perhaps adopting the Hispanic ethic toward the elderly would help mitigate America's looming Social Security problems -- and even strengthen intergenerational bonds at a time when they would otherwise be weakening.”
The Shape of the Future. Ramo Joshua Cooper, Time, 04/13/98, Vol. 151 Issue 14, p197, 1p.
Introduces four articles on conflicts continuing into the 21st century. The topics of environmentalism, globalization, tribalism, and fundamentalism create global challenges. In a new century, come new conflicts. Environmentalism presses against Globalization and the world will have to confront the power of Tribalism and the challenge of Fundamentalism. The author believes that though we are living in peaceful times, history shows that short, temporary bursts of tranquillity have followed all the major wars of this century—“think of the Roaring Twenties and the boom years of the 1950s.” Society’s challenge now is to ensure that the current era of peace and prosperity continues long after the close of the cold war. It will demand as activist an agenda as that long fight did. The next 100 years will bubble with questions that are as difficult as the ones we have faced in this century. Perhaps, because of their incredible subtlety, these questions are even more difficult.” Environmentalism: Once dominated by fringe activists, environmentalism, worldwide, becomes an essential element of political reform -- especially in the developing world, where the destruction of nature threatens to widen the gap between rich and poor nations. Tribalism: The ideological divisions that plagued the 20th century may have disappeared, but new fault lines are drawn in the 21st century in their place. The most explosive one: ethnic conflict. The dissolution of nations invites politicians to exploit resentments to amass power. But this kind of tribalism isn't intractable....ethnic hostility can be prevented--with education and vigilance. Globalization: What will define life most in the next century? The global economy. The machinery of globalization continues to integrate financial systems, dismantling territorial frontiers--and bringing people closer together. It has also created a high-flying, high-stakes business class, filled with go-getters. To them, the chances for prosperity are limitless. And national boundaries mean nothing. Fundamentalism: Fundamentalism offers its adherents a moral refuge from the vulgarities of the secular, modern world. To critics, it represents a dangerous rejection of the liberal, Western tenets of the Enlightenment. Can the two views be reconciled in the next century...." .To what extent should we trade off our environment for our economy? How should the advancement of a secular global mentality make room for God? As the world becomes increasingly integrated by technology and communications, these questions become more relevant in the 21st century.”
The World of 2020 and Alternative Futures. Air War College, Air Command and Staff College, and School of Advanced Airpower Studies, 1998. <http:www.awc.gov>
One of the initial tasks accomplished by the SPACECAST 2020 participants in the Air War College, Air Command and Staff College, and School of Advanced Airpower Studies was arriving at a consensus on the key features of the far future: the world system as affected by five fundamental forces. These forces include: the number and distribution of people on the planet; the world's geopolitical organizations and interactions; the world's economic processes; the effects of new technologies; and the constraints imposed by the natural environment. Each of these functions will affect US space capabilities in the future. The study describes these forces in depth then outlines key issues. The participants identified a creative and fertile "rogue set" of scenarios. Scenario 1. Spacefaring World: " (This) is a world in which there are many actors with a strong desire to be involved in space and with high technomic vitality representing the capability to be involved in space. Prior to 2020, there will be advances in communication and information interconnectivity and success of the Global Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT), leading to a highly interdependent global village. The few remaining rogue states that may have inhibited development and spread of space and technological activity will have been swept away by dual waves of glasnost and economic activities. The competitive atmosphere among states and transnationals had leading to the early development of advanced space-launched methods, and cheap, reliable spacelift have become available from a variety of sources, which might include states and corporate barons. This fierce competition extends into the economic realm and into space, but it has developed in a fairly friendly and non-conflictual manner. As these events unfold, the military increasingly assumes the role of policeman and space-traffic controller. The entertainment and education industries respond to these developments by increasingly using space as a setting for both entertainment and education, continually sparking the imaginations of populations worldwide…" Scenario 2. Rogue’s World: "(This) is a world in which there were few actors with a desire to be in space and limited technological and economic capability, but the will of some actors to be involved in space will be very high. The history leading up to this world might be a failure of GATT, spawning an era of neoprotectionism and a world economic downturn. Advances in communication and information interconnectivity failing to overcome deep-seated prejudice and traditional cultural barriers. Fundamentalist and extremist Islamic states becoming closed, highly controlled societies in a quest for cultural purity. More than one Rogue state developing reliable indigenous spacelift, a demonstrated antisatellite capability, and a willingness to violate space law. This perceived threat brings renewed US emphasis on space defense and an increased military role in space…" Scenario 3. Mad Max Incorporated World: "(This) is a world characterized by many actors with a strong desire to be in space, but actors who are limited by very low technomic vitality. This world is very conflictual. The Mad Max Incorporated world history is characterized by a small nuclear exchange (not involving the US) and a resultant environmental nightmare occurring in South Asia. A devastating earthquake in California decimates the US economy and leads to mass internal migration. Post industrial states increasingly shift to social programs, environmental cleanup, disaster relief, and a complex internal regulatory environment. Multinational corporations, are quicker to recover than states, fill the void by privatizing many other former public sector tasks. Corporate and individual economic concerns lead to decreased clout for states and a further rise of multinational corporations. Many military forces, including space assets, were increasingly made available to the highest bidder in order to sustain their activities..." Scenario 4. Space Baron’s World: "Space Barons are individual entrepreneurs involved in space. According to the plausible history leading to the Space Baron's world a single nuclear incident occurs prior to 2020, but states avoided World War III. States continually shift from military to economic competition. Increasingly, wealthy northern countries form several pragmatic alliances and consortia widening the gulf between "have" and "have-nots." High-tech alternate terrestrial options such as fiber optics slow the drive to develop advanced space systems. The lack of political will to be in space opens the window to Space Barons such as Motorola, Microsoft, and CNN (Cable News Network)…"
The Future
of Crime. Daniel
Erasmus, facilitator, Rotterdam School of Management, 1998. <http:www.rsmcourse.dtn.net>
Crime is an interesting topic for drama on television, but it is as
old as humanity. It hasn’t changed that much over the last 3 trillion years
or so. There is no clear cut definition of crime except for how the legislation
in various cultures define it. A more difficult aspect is to portray people’s
perception of crime. Daniel Erasmus Some driving forces include: the weakening
of nation states; privatization /receding government; polarization of wealth
and distribution of wealth; information based economy ; deterioration of
family and community values and norms; increasing capacity/power of microprocessors;
development of New Technology. The set of scenarios rests on two dimensions:
crime based on ideological differences and emotions; crime based on material
greed. Scenario 1. A Big Brother Scenario: Materially driven crime: "In
the year 2015, the situation of crime is basically a power game fighting
between the government and the criminals. The winning key is - technology.
If government won, the society would be in high control and vise versa.
However, the war continues to go on since the technologies are more accessible
by both parties…" Ideologically driven crime: "Afraid of the threats of
the end of the century, immigration and inequality driven crime, the citizens
of the developed world were willing not only to accept, but even reclaim,
higher government presence, and the use of all available means to regain
safety. In consequence, traditional power elites have succeeded to gain
control of the technology and use it to protect their interests. The networks
that once promised a paradise of freedom are now the means for them to
maintain the order, providing means that go far beyond the perfect totalitarian
dream. Traditional crime has not disappeared but has been confined to the
backward regions of the world and the low class ghettos of the big cities,
which had not stopped their growth. In the difficult transition to the
full digital economy many have been the victims, even relatively educated
and expensive workers have been dismissed from succumbing service industries,
suddenly replaced by intelligent agents…" Scenario 2. Laissez-faire Scenario:
Materially driven crime: "In 2015 governments will no longer play a significant
role in managing a country’s legislature. Law enforcement has been decentralized
and is in many cases carried out by private crime fighters who are hired
by individuals and corporations alike. The concept of the social welfare
state is a distant memory, - In 2015 individualism and materialistic gains
are the main driving forces in the economy. The demise of social and political
justice has increased the polarization of wealth resulting in strong divides
in society…" Ideologically driven crime: "Far behind from technological
development, social and political mechanism have definitely failed to cope
with technological change. Politics, Government, Law, Justice systems are
harder to update because they are highly based in strong cultural paradigms.
Paradoxically, the globalization has contributed by making national legal
systems irrelevant and global legal systems impractical because is almost
impossible to reach agreements due to the same cultural diversity…"
War Scenarios. World Press Review, Vol. 44, No. 6, 1997.
The cold war was declared over in 1991, with the West triumphant and America the world’s only superpower. But there are new tensions and jockeying for power. Some see China looming as the next adversary; some see Russia reemerging; some see a possible Moscow-Beijing axis confronting the West. A lot of literature has nominated China the chief villain. World Press Review, June 1997. A new book announces "The Coming Conflict with China"; THE CHINA THREAT booms a recent cover of Foreign Affairs, an influential journal. A question to consider is, does the press influence these matters? Would more benign, normative scenarios about China influence policy making in a positive way? Or, would "war scenarios" and "China the villain" prophetically influence policy making so as to avoid such scenarios? (Another positive outcome.) An article in Hindustan Times, New Delhi March 24, 1997, titled, "War Scenarios," announces that think-tanks and academic communities have been "abuzz" with informed speculation about an eventual clash between America and China. According to a March 6 issue of the authoritative Inside the Pentagon newsletter, it discusses a new scenario: Asian Regional Conflict: "China provides military support to North Korea in a war with South Korea, and the United States responds with attacks on the Chinese mainland." The Naval War College conducted computer simulations in 1997 and 1998 of battles in Asia between China and the United States in 2010. To everyone’s surprise, China defeated the U.S. in both (a spokesman would neither confirm or deny this). It is said that the CIA recently conducted its own simulations of such a battle in 2005, and China won that, too."
Beyond Yugoslavia. The Boston Globe . March 30, 1999 A9.
Ethnic tensions run long and deep in the Balkans. The conflicts over language and identity in a region with no natural national boundaries could spread into Macedonia, Bulgaria, and Greece if left unchecked. The area is inherently unstable with ethnic Albanians living in Greece and ethnic Albanians and Turks living in Macedonia. Part of the logistics of NATO intervention is to put a check on expanded war and on broader conflict in the region. Potential scenarios of regional spread: Scenario 1. Albania’s Fear: "Albania might suffer as ethnic Albanian refugees flood over the border from Kosovo. As a miserably poor country, Albania might not be able to supply food and other resources to everyone within its borders, leading to riots and other problems. Moreover, those Albanian refugees might include armed members of the Kosovar separatist movement, which is trying to break away from Yugoslavia, led by President Slobodan Milosevic. The Albanian government, already weak, might have to contend with Kosovar rebels waging war from within its borders, or with Milosevic's forces chasing its enemy onto Albanian soil. The result: Albania might enter the Kosovo conflict to protect its own borders. And that is only one strand in the knot of tangled political interests in the region." Scenario 2. Macedonian Fear: "Macedonia could face problems similar to Albania's. About one- third of its people are ethnic Albanians, and Albanian refugees have been streaming in from Kosovo. Milosevic's forces could use that as an excuse to move into Macedonia, or they could lay claim to Macedonian territory under the excuse that Macedonia was once a republic within Yugoslavia. It broke away in the early 1990s and is an independent parliamentary democracy. Political instability in Macedonia could prompt Bulgaria or Greece to send troops into Macedonia." Scenario 3. Grecian Fear: "The Greeks fear that Macedonia has designs on a northern Greek province that is also called Macedonia. Greeks say the name Macedonia, as well as the country's flag and a provision of its constitution, reveal its ambitions in Greece. Because of Greek sensitivities, the young country has been known officially as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Greece attacks a destabilized Macedonia. Turkey could enter the conflict under the guise of assisting Macedonia's Turkish and Albanian minorities. Like the Turks, the Albanians are Muslim. A fight between Greece and Turkey, two heavily armed NATO members, would be the most destabilizing outcome of the war in Kosovo."
Science Fiction to Futuristic Scenarios. The Orange County Register December 13, 1999.
As research for her latest science fiction novel, award-winning African-American author Octavia E. Butler looked not to just technical journals or NASA blueprints, but in a different research mode, she looked at "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich." Butler uses characters of history to reflect on the 21st Century in very human terms. In her novel, "The Parable of the Talents," Butler outlines a plausible, cautionary scenario about the United States in the 2030s as riddled with gangs, slavery, environmental decay and religious crusaders in political control. The U.S. turns to fascism. Disease and warfare drive this world. Portrayals of multiculturalism, social unrest and adversity and racial issues among Blacks, Hispanics, Asians (and even aliens of three sexes - male, female, and neuter) , constitute major characters.
Four Scenarios of Corporations and Governance. Wolfson College, Oxford (see http://www.wolfson.ox.ac.uk)
Wolfson College is a large graduate college of the University of Oxford situated in North Oxford beside the River Cherwell. At present it consists of some sixty Governing Body Fellows, thirty Research Fellows, forty Junior Research Fellows and about three hundred and eighty Graduate Students. The total membership of Common Room is nearly 1200. Wolfson offers scenarios of governance. Scenario 1. Turf Wars: "Corporations and governments that had reaped the greatest benefits of prosperity clung to outmoded and dysfunctional value systems throughout the late 1990's and early twenty-first century. People accustomed to being in command adjusted poorly to collaborative decision-making: the necessity to share participation in both the power and the profit across class and national boundaries. Ever in the minority, the old profit mongers were the target of the pent-up frustration and anger of millions of workers across the globe. Resentment built, at times unfocussed and wild. The murder of Alan Greenspan in 1999 by a disgruntled manager who had been the victim of corporate downsizing triggered a number of violent outbursts as people turned against not only the wealthy elite, but also against "others:" communities, religions and other racial groups. Trouble and violence seeped into virtually every major city and disrupted the flow of high technology goods, goods that were necessary to sustain not only economic growth and development but also the little conveniences of life to which people had grown accustomed. Jobs began to disappear. People began to disappear. The high tech luxuries that seemed poised to dominate life in the twenty-first century became unattainable. People have banded together in small, ethnically-based groups to gain access to the food and natural resources they still need to survive. Though some industry remains viable, much of its output is controlled by loosely organized paramilitary groups. Bill Gates is General of the largest one." Scenario 2. Around the World in Eighty Seconds "From the Komatsu factory in Sioux City, Iowa, to the Deutsche Bank branch in Kuala Lumpur, to crisp, golden McDonald's french fries in Shanghai, the global economy has co-mingled and integrated until consumers see the same thing wherever they go. International markets led companies to tap into the developing world's growing labor force, helping to equalize wages and standards of living across national boundaries. As food and natural resources seem abundant in the short-term, international relief organizations now focus on issues of "relative poverty," addressing those disadvantaged segments of less-developed countries that are still technologically illiterate. The Internet Relief Fund provides individuals and companies the opportunity to help a technologically disadvantaged person by pledging five dollars a month towards Internet access fees. The roots of transnational corporations have increasingly intertwined, making it difficult to sort out corporate citizenship from national identity. And as the net worth of the transnationals now exceeds the GDP of most countries, and the amenities offered transnational employees continue to expand, people acknowledge their corporate ID is more valuable than their passport. Even those in small, independent businesses now rely heavily upon outsourcing from, and alliances with, global organizations. Employee ideologies reflect industry-based perspectives more than geographically organized political systems. The rice growers in Alabama and Vietnam collaborate to promote their products, sensing virtually no affinity at all for the steel producers in Mobile or Hanoi a few scant miles away. Electronically-shared research and development coupled with a continuously operating global transportation system generates a never ending stream of technological innovations, which are manufactured simultaneously at the site of the needed materials. Whatever consumption of the planet takes place is balanced by the occasional environmental technology breakthrough in the endless need to force-feed the global economy." Scenario 3. L'art pour L'art: "Developing countries discovered new economic leverage in the sense of "enviropreneurship" at the end of the twentieth century. As more lands and resources were depleted in the industrial countries, their populations finally understood the real cost of their rush for economic supremacy. Consequently, developing countries found new sources of income as a ecotourists and ecology trusts poured money southward. Ever eager to follow shifts in social values, multinational corporations now implement true cost pricing for their goods and demand that production footprints be made as small as possible. The practice of reverse manufacturing is commonplace as corporate planners design their products with the view that they are merely borrowing the earth's resources and are obligated to return those resources in the most efficient manner possible. More and more new materials are biochemically engineered from renewable resources and designed to degrade into "greenfill" for farms and gardens. Landfills are being reclaimed with nano-fullerene "micro miners" which recover strategic resources efficiently with no disruption to the land. Information technologies enable employees and work cooperatives to disperse jobs throughout habitable territories. This shift has encouraged many people to become self-sufficient in many of their small produce needs. Emptying high rises have been converted into vertical farms, using solar power to permit year-round food production. With the dispersal of the population, people lost their sense of hyper-urgency and now focus on the more natural rhythms of life. Closing ten deals over lunch became a lost art, while art once again became found. Even Al Gore learned to finger-paint." Scenario 4. Designer Kids R Us: "As services to genetically design your children became cheaper and more accessible, the global population started to drop. Initially a service marketed only to the wealthy, global elite, "designer kids" have made future generations smaller in numbers, but vastly more valued - and valuable in their skills and potential. Many adults have also discovered the joys of re-engineering their bodies for different activities and environments. With the help of DNA-altering "cosmetic viruses" the "four hands, no feet" micro-gravity environments of orbital production facilities and pleasure parks are now accessible to all. People have embraced technology and now enjoy unprecedented freedom from mundane tasks and planning. Political and economic decision-making is handled by specialized "knowbots," cousins of the "intelligent agents" originally designed to filter information from the Internet. Companies, governments and even personal relationships now form and reform in fluid, virtual structures as "cybership" has become more important than citizenship. The development of "Just In Time Corporations" allows workers from different companies to collaborate on projects on an as-needed basis: technical specialists spin out of their work teams at Nikon, DuPont and John Deere to create a Mars rover with which school kids can run remote experiments on Olympus Mons, and then spin off again separately to other work groups. Hawaii, the Commonwealth of the Marianas and Japan work together on an agreement of North American plankton farming. Parents create a different set of "extended family relations" as a unique "village" in which to raise each child they have. The hottest vacation spot around is your own living room lounger, as more and more people take vacations as well as work in virtual reality."
RAND: Turkey and Greece May go to War in 2003. 04/28/98 Turkish Daily News . Source: World Reporter (TM)
Scenario developed for US Air Force, Turkey. The escalating tensions between Turkey and Greece over a host of related disputes have long captured the attention and imagination of Washington's think tank community. According to "Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century," a recent study released by RAND Corporation, there is a chance that Turkey and Greece may actually go to war over the rights of the Turkish minority living in Western Thrace. According to one of the nine "selected scenarios, " Turkey and Greece can clash in an environment where "the revival of regional competition in the Balkans has provided new flash points in the relationship between Athens and Ankara." According to the RAND scenario, a clash between the two NATO neighbors may develop in the following manner: RAND Scenario: "In 2003, a crisis arises over the alleged mistreatment of Turks in Greek Thrace. As friction -- including several minor border skirmishes that flare when small groups of refugees attempt to flee from Greece to Turkey increases, the two countries conduct simultaneous and overlapping exercises in the Aegean and begin reinforcing the border regions. Several incidents in and over the Aegean -- surface-to-air and surface-to-surface targeting radars locking on to aircraft and ships; a Greek and Turkish frigate suffering a minor collision while playing "chicken" -- further increase anxieties and animosities. Finally, a major demonstration by ethnic Turks in Greek Thrace turns into a riot, and Greek paramilitary troops intervene, firing into crowds and killing several Turks." "Denouncing the "genocidal policies of the Greek government," Turkey responds by launching a sudden but limited thrust across the border into Thrace aimed at seizing key centers in which the Turkish population resides --in essence establishing a protected safe haven. Greek forces try to hold this invasion at the border, and Athens declares a 12-mile territorial-waters zone in the Aegean, effectively closing Turkish access to the Aegean. The Greek air force attacks Izmir and other Turkish cities, and the two countries also clash in and over the Aegean." RAND recommends that the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff conduct operations "as soon as possible" to protect U.S. forces and citizens in the region from attack by either combatant.
A European Confederation. 2015: Power and Progress. Edited by Patrick M. Cronin. National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies, 1996.
By 2015, the European Union is likely to develop into a European Confederation, but may be weak. After a history of strengthening, there is a small chance that the Union would break in the next 20 years. The Institute for National Strategic Studies conducted extensive research into trends and driving forces, then provided detailed scenarios illustrating conflict possibilities in the region. The following are scenario summaries. Scenario 1. ) A European Confederation. "Apart from unpredictable internally-generated decisions by the West Europeans themselves to decrease or increase the pace of their political integration, possible pressures on Europe from Russia or from across the Mediterranean may hasten the formation of a confederation, in response to one or another such threats." Scenario 2. ) The Disintegration of the European Union. "Since the end of the Cold War, both nationalism and regionalism have revived noticeably in a number of the member of the European Union. Among the major members, these tendencies have shown special vigor in Britain, France, Spain, and Italy. Nonetheless, France remains rather firmly linked to Germany, forming the essential core of the EU. While the Franco-German relationship may become strained over the coming decade, it seems likely to endure, eventually to grow stronger yet. But there are some signs that nationalism or regionalism might grow stronger in Britain, Spain, and Italy. Either or both might disrupt or even end the cohesion of the EU." Scenario 3.) A Renationalized Germany. "Germany is the major EU member most committed to the movement of Europe toward true federation. But even if the EU remains intact, it is conceivable that the combination of revived nationalism in Britain, France, and Italy might end progress toward deeper union and even reverse recent developments in that direction. Under such circumstances, the Ironic redult might be to cause a revival of nationalism in Germany."
History Moving North. Robert Kaplan/ The Atlantic Monthly, Feb. 1997.
Kaplan provides an understanding of how the map of Mexico is being transmuted so it is possible to see more clearly where the US may be headed. "Mexico is an example of failing capacity in a state that is supremely subtle and middle-of-the-road—not extreme, like many sub-Saharan African states, or even Pakistan, and not quite so wretchedly vast, intractable, and bureaucratic as India or China." Antonio Alonso Concheiro, of Analitica Consultants, one of Mexico’s leading planners and futurists, briefly describes two plausible scenarios of the future of Mexico. Scenario 1.) The Good Scenario. "The good scenario is that we will soon face a challenge much more severe than the peso crisis; something like a trade war between Japan and the United States that leads to a world recession [and undermines Mexico], or a complete freeze in Mexican immigration by the U.S. Authorities. That would lead to intensive destruction of current Mexican political institutions over the next decade, and the rise of local bosses and free-enterprise networks to replace them." Scenario 2.) The Bad Scenario. "Alonso’s bad scenario is that "no true crisis will emerge." Indeed, the Mexican government and American editorial writers have already proclaimed Mexico’s recovery from the peso crisis; over the long term, according to the bad scenario, the low-level erosion of the state will continue—in a sufficiently gradual way as to be always deniable, but leading to quasi-anarchy."
Russia. 2015: Power and Progress. Edited by Patrick M. Cronin. National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies, 1996.
According to the Institute for National Strategic Studies, the choices open to Russia are revolutionary. In the future, Russia must decide whether to expand into territories as they had done historically. What is the future of Russia’s national identity? "Are they Europeans, Eurasians or uniquely Russians?" The various possible answers to these questions are closely linked in their potential influence on the country. This book contains extensive research into trends and driving forces, then provides detailed scenarios illustrating conflict possibilities in the region. The following are scenario summaries. Scenario 1. ) Declining Russia. "The Russian Federation may decay, because of failure of economic reform, strong regional tendencies, the strength of organized crime, and the success of local cliques to ignore instructions from the central government. The military might remain relatively powerful politically as an autonomous force but decline technologically because of a lack of funding. Some areas, such as St. Petersburg, the Black Sea coast, and Vladivostok might enjoy prosperity; others, including Central Russia and the Urals might decline into penury. These regions would still be tied to Moscow by vague nationalist sentiments, however, Areas like Tatarstan, Yakutia and the Far East might attain a highly-autonomous status because of local ethnicity, wealth or the lure of powerful neighbors on the other side of Russia’s borders. Moscow would possess little power in a country with a weal overall economy, high unemployment, wretched social welfare programs, low levels of public health, powerful criminal gangs, and loyalties tied to communal and local authorities." Scenario 2.) The United States of Eurasia. "Russia might begin to decline as described above but be saved from such degradation along the way. Moscow might be able to reassert some of its authority under a charismatic leader or movement, especially if Russians felt threatened by China. Nonetheless, many of the problems previously mentioned would limit the central government’s options. Moscow would be less able to force the regions into submission than to negotiate a new political arrangement. Russian officials might propose the creation of a Eurasian counterpart to the European Confederation." Scenario 3.) A Russian Nation-State. "Russia may develop into a democratic and liberal capitalist state, but to do so would require Russia to abandon the legacies of its Tzarist and Soviet past. Such a Russia would probably be organized along federal lines, much like contemporary Germany. This would almost certainly mean a contraction of Russian territory, giving freedom to those who do not feel a sense of Russian nationalism. To include such non-Russians in a new "free Russia" would require forms of coercion incompatible with democracy. Realistically, such a democratic Russia could probably be born only out of a major disaster like a lost war with the Chinese or an unsuccessful intervention into Ukraine. These kinds of serious reversals, such as those suffered by the Axis Powers in World War II, can lead to revisions of identity and national rebirth." Scenario 4.) Imperial Russia. "The pull of the past may prove too strong for the Russians to escape over the next 20 years. They may abandon their experiment with democracy, rally to an authoritarian government, and renew their ancient attempts to impose their hegemony over Eurasia. The regions and the non-Russians within the revived empire would be subjugated to harsh central rule. Russia would remain capitalist but with large state participation in the economy. This Russia would be, or would approximate, a neo-Fascist state. Nonetheless, it is not inconceivable that such a Russia would restore the monarchy as a powerful symbol of Russian imperialism and divine right to rule over vast territories inhabited by non-Russians."
The Coming Anarchy. Robert Kaplan. The Atlantic Monthly, February, 1994.
Kaplan excellently portrays how scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism, and disease are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet. This comprehensive article covers most parts of the world, particularly the developing and least developed countries in relation to the industrial world. Kaplan details a rich image of the future, and in many parts, Kaplan adds a scenario-like quality that cannot be overlooked. Since 1994, The Coming Anarchy has influenced policy makers and major think-tanks around the world. The first paragraph begins, " The Minister's eyes were like egg yolks, an aftereffect of some of the many illnesses, malaria especially, endemic in his country. There was also an irrefutable sadness in his eyes. He spoke in a slow and creaking voice, the voice of hope about to expire. Flame trees, coconut palms, and a ballpoint-blue Atlantic composed the background. None of it seemed beautiful, though. "In forty-five years I have never seen things so bad. We did not manage ourselves well after the British departed. But what we have now is something worse--the revenge of the poor, of the social failures, of the people least able to bring up children in a modern society." Then he referred to the recent coup in the West African country Sierra Leone. "The boys who took power in Sierra Leone come from houses like this." The Minister jabbed his finger at a corrugated metal shack teeming with children. "In three months these boys confiscated all the official Mercedes, Volvos, and BMWs and willfully wrecked them on the road." The Minister mentioned one of the coup's leaders, Solomon Anthony Joseph Musa, who shot the people who had paid for his schooling, "in order to erase the humiliation and mitigate the power his middle-class sponsors held over him."
India. 2015: Power and Progress. Edited by Patrick M. Cronin. National Defense University, Institute for National Strategic Studies, 1996.
This book contains extensive research into trends and driving forces in the Sub-Continent, then provides detailed scenarios illustrating conflict possibilities in the region. "Economics and demographics will govern India’s success or failure at becoming a great power by 2015. At present, India resembles two countries superimposed on the same territory: a modernizing and rapidly developing middle-class India of some 200 to 300 million and a traditional, impoverished India of some 600 to 700 million. In some ways, the gap between these two groups is widening." The following are scenario summaries. Scenario 1. Divided India. India may fail to develop its economic potential sufficiently and fall victim to overpopulation. Certain Indian regions, primarily those between Bombay and Bangalore, might become prosperous and secede to enjoy their wealth in isolation. Overwhelmed by massive national poverty, the central government might collapse and the country fragment into several states based on local language and religion. For example, the Pubjab might emerge as an independent Khalistan closely aligned with Pakistan; Kashmir might unite with Pakistan; Hindu Bengal might merge with Bangladesh; and the Tamils might declare independence and seize the Tamil-inhabited region of Sri Lanka. However, the Indian Army might manage to keep the country united within a weak confederated structure. Foreign enemies might be kept at bay by a nuclear-armed Indian Air force still loyal to the center." Scenario 2. Hindu India. "Hindu-speaking Hindus number only about 30 percent of the population. So long as India remains a democracy, such a group cannot gain control of the government. But if Hindu nationalism swept the Marathis, Bengalis, Tamils, Gujaratis, Sindhis, and other language groups of Hindu religion, Indians could elect an intolerant authoritarian government ruled by Hindu extremists. Under such circumstances, large numbers of the cosmopolitan upper classes might flee and the Western-oriented diaspora cease returning to India. The fate of the Moslems would be truly miserable, judged by recent attacks by Hindu mobs on mosques and Moslem neighborhoods in Indian cities. Some would be massacred, some would flee to Pakistan, and the rest would be reduced to servitude. However, lsuch an India could still emerge as a great power, if it pursued economic policies that encouraged high rates of growth." Scenario 3. Democratic India. "An economically successful India that rejected Hindu extremism might nonetheless adopt many of the policies described for a Hindu India, but such an India would stress its democratic ideals as one of the bases for an anti-Chinese understanding with the United States and Japan, should a powerful China disturb the tranquility of Asia. However, even if China were to develop into a peaceful democracy, Chinese-Indian rivalry would continue, even if pursued primarily along economic and political lines."
Air Force 2025. Department of Defense. United States Air Force, 1997.
Air Force 2025 is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future. Presented in June 1996, this report was produced in the Department of Defense school environment of academic freedom. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States government. Six separate worlds were created. Scenario 1.) Gulliver's Travails. "This is a world of rampant nationalism, state and nonstate sponsored terrorism, and fluid coalitions. Territorialism, national sentiments, the proliferation of refugees, and authoritarian means flourish. The US is overwhelmed and preoccupied with such worldwide commitments as counterterrorism and counterproliferation efforts, humanitarian assistance, and peacekeeping operations. The US is attempting to be the world's policeman, fireman, physician, social worker, financier, and mailman. The US military, based in the continental United States, is not really welcomed overseas. This world forces the US military to devise systems and concepts of operation for meeting expanding requirements while maintaining a high operations tempo during a period of constrained budgets. The US world view is global, DTK is constrained--evolutionary, not revolutionary--and the global power grid is dispersed." Scenario 2.) Zaibatsu. "In Zaibatsu, multinational corporations dominate international affairs and loosely cooperate in a syndicate to create a superficially benign world. Economic growth and profits are the dominant concerns. While conflict occurs, it is usually through proxies and is short lived. Military forces serve more as "security guards" for multinational interests and property rights Technology has grown exponentially and proliferated widely. Global power is concentrated in a few coalitions of multinational corporations. The main challenge to the US military in this world, which is becoming unstable due to rising income disparities, is to maintain relevance and competence in a relatively benign world where the United States is no longer dominant. The US world view is limited as domestic concerns take precedence." Scenario 3.) Digital Cacophony. "This is the most technologically advanced world resulting in increased individual power but decreasing order and authority in a world characterized by fear and anxiety. Advances in computing power and sophistication, global databases, biotechnology and artificial organs, and virtual reality entertainment all exist. Electronic referenda have created pseudo-democracies, but nations and political allegiances have given way to a scramble for wealth amid explosive economic growth. Rapid proliferation of high technology and weapons of mass destruction provide individual independence but social isolation. The US military must cope with a multitude of high technology threats, particularly in cyberspace. The US world view is global, technological change exponential, and the world power grid dispersed." Scenario 4.) King Khan. "This world contains a strategic surprise in the form of the creation of a Sino-colossus incorporating China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong. US dominance in this world has waned as it has been surpassed economically by this entity and suffered an economic depression. This has led to a rapidly falling defense budget and hard choices about which core competencies to maintain in a period of severe austerity. The American Century has given way to the Asian Millennium and the power, prestige, and capability that were once American now reside on the other side of the Pacific Rim. The US world view is decidedly domestic as it copes with problems at home, the growth in technology is constrained and world power is concentrated in a Chinese monolith whose economy, military, and political influence dwarf those of the US. The US has come to resemble the United Kingdom after World War II--a superpower has-been." Scenario 5.) Halves and Half Naughts. "This is a world in which there are both changing social structures and changing security conditions. The main challenge to the military is to prepare for a multitude of threats in a world dominated by conflict between haves and have nots. The world has split into two unequal camps: a small, wealthy, technologically advanced, politically stable minority of the states and peoples of the world (roughly 15%) and the poor, backward, sick, angry, unstable vast majority of the world's states and people who have little, and therefore have little to lose, in seeking redress of their grievances. The US world view is global but only because of the threats to its security represented by these masses. Technology and power are bifurcated exhibiting trends in both directions in the divided world." Scenario 6.) Crossroads 2015. "In Kurdish areas of Eurasia, the US uses programmed forces from 1996-2001 to fight a major conflict. The choices and outcomes made at this juncture have much to do with determining which of the worlds of 2025 will emerge a decade later. The American World View is global, DTK is constrained, and the World Power Grid is seen as concentrated but beginning to become dispersed. Potential future conflicts center on events involving disputes between the Ukraine and a resurgent Russia and the reaction of the rest of the world to such a conflict. The US in 2015 still has global commitments and concerns, but a constrained rate of economic and technological growth. Whether the US chooses a more isolationist path because of these pressures or chooses a more activist role with the sacrifices that would require is the major question to answer in shaping the world of 2025."
China. 2015: Power and Progress. Edited by Patrick M. Cronin. National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies, 1996.
By 2015 China could emerge as a highly aggressive great power or fall in decline. According to the Institute for Strategic Studies, China will be an important world event in the next two decades. Capitalism had unleashed revolutionary forces in China and the country is undergoing vast political change. This book contains extensive research into trends and driving forces in China, then provides detailed scenarios illustrating conflict possibilities in the region. Scenario 1.) Weak China. "China has enjoyed spectacular economic success over the past 15 years, but the growth of the Chinese economy has been heavily concentrated in the industrial sector; the agricultural sector has grown hardly at all. This imbalance has created tensions between the cities and the countryside that might lead to serious social unrest. If China lacks an effective central leadership. It could fail to address these social problems. As a result, industrial growth could falter or cease. Foreign investment, so vital to Chinese development, might slacken or even cease. In that case, China could fall into serious, prolonged economic depression. Popular loyalty to the government could be undermined." Scenario 2. Provincial China. "China might suffer from ineffective or misguided leaders after Deng’s death. Nonetheless, parts of China might continue to enjoy significant prosperity. The richer provinces could gain effective autonomy from Beijing before 2015, but national sentiment, fear of foreign powers, desire to avoid civil war and a recognition of the advantages of maintaining some form of central government could result in the formal unity of China being preserved. No formal arraignment for such a system might be developed; instead, Beijing would be involved in a separate, less authoritative, relationship with the richer provinces than with the poorer ones. The richer provinces might pay significant taxes to Beijing but be effectively independent of many forms of central authority. The poorer provinces would be under tighter central control, while struggling to grow wealthy enough to gain more autonomy. The non-Han Chinese areas might remain under firm PLA control, paid for by the richer provinces. Alternately, Tibet might enjoy no more than a confederal link to Beijing." Scenario 3. Liberal China. "By 2015, China could be in the process of moving toward the establishment of a multiparty elected system of government, something like that of Western European states in the mid-19th century. Beijing’s leaders would be concerned about achieving popular support, recognizing the enhanced power gained from having a willing national consensus to carry out policies. A Liberal Chinese political system would undoubtedly be imposed from above, unlike the process in the United States in 1787-88. China would remain into a broadly liberal and, eventually, into a democratic state. In 2015, however, Chinawould hardly be democratic, although power would be shared between the central and provincial governments, basic human and civil rights would be protected, and all Chinese would live under the firm rule of law." Scenario 4. Authoritarian China. "Nationalism may replace Communism as a burning political faith for the Chinese. A post-Deng government might produce one or more charismatic, authoritarian leaders who could mobilize the loyalty of the Chinese people, direct continued vigorous economic growth and resolve distribution of power questions very much in favor of Beijing. Such a China could be very dangerous. It might be motivated by the type of aggressive need to assert itself that afflicted Italy, Germany and Japan before World War II. Or it might simply view attempts to bring China into a cooperative relationship with the other great powers as an infringement on its sovereignty. Beijing might be involved in a continuous series of confrontations, one of which might spark an armed conflict. Such a China could take advantage of a vigorous economy to pour large amounts of amounts of money into the armed forces and then embark on an offensive foreign policy, seeking undisputed predominance in Asia. By 2015, such a China could be seeking to become a truly global power."
Japan. 2015: Power and Progress. Edited by Patrick M. Cronin. National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies, 1996.
It seems certain that Japan would enjoy security and strength in 2015. But there are uncertainties over trade imbalances that raise concerns about the duration of the American-Japanese security relationship. Also, it is possible that China will be a major economic and military power in fewer than 20 years and thus be a threat to Japan. Japan has an aging population that might cause the decline of Japan in the face of a youthful China. This book contains extensive research into trends and driving forces in the Japan, then provides detailed scenarios illustrating conflict possibilities in the region. Scenario summaries follow. Scenario 1. Japan, an American Ally. "Japan might remain allied to the United States, but the partnership would probably be a far more equal one -- although still probably not more symmetrical in 2015. In cooperation with its ally, Japan might have acquired a theater anti-missile defense system and could maintain a reconnaissance satellite system. The American naval presence in the Western Pacific could have relatively diminished capability nest to that of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. Japan may not have any other formal military alliances, but it probably would have close ties to the ASEAN states and would cooperate militarily with several of them, especially Thailand and Indonesia. Japanese-Australian security cooperation could also be close. And, depending on the challenge posed by either Russia or China, Japan could even have a cooperative military relationship with Seoul." Scenario 2. A Renationalized Japan. "For a variety of reasons, the US-Japan security relationship might not survive until 2015. Under such circumstances, Japan would have to see to its own defense. So long as the American-Japanese relationship was not a hostile one and Japan did not feel particularly threatened by Russia or China, Japanese rearmament might be held within moderate limits, at least at first. But the very fact that Japan had decoupled from the United States might create great fear in East Asia and prompt a regional arms buildup. In turn, particularly if Korean and Chinese armament levels upset Japanese public opinion, a full-scale arms race might break out in East Asia. Japan and China might seek allies against each other and all Asia might be divided into two mutually hostile coalitions." Scenario 3. Japan, A Great Power. "Japan might retain its alliance with the United States but still pursue far more autonomous foreign and security policies than it has over the past 50 years. Suspicions about anti-Japanese feelings in the United States, anti-American feelings in Japan, trade friction, fear that the United States might come to see China as a more valuable partner than Japan, increased Japanese national pride, and a sense that American society was slowly decaying might all combine to lessen Japanese respect for the United States and raise doubts about its reliability. But the Japanese are prudent--they might consider the continuation of the American-Japanese security relationship useful for the moment and dangerous to end abruptly. At the same time, the Japanese might take steps to allow them to break with the United States and provide for their own defense, if necessary."
An Address to the Council. Ben Bova. Chapter from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. A global governance scenario to 2044.
The context of this scenario is an address to the World Council in the mid-21st Century. The environment has suffered degradation on a wide scale, and the world just recovered from the "70 year Petroleum Wars" in which politics and military combat was driven by the desperation of poor people struggling for a scant slice of the world’s resources. The war ended , thanks largely to the dedication of the United Nation’s International Peacekeeping Force and to the scientists who made nuclear fusion power more efficient. An international tax is proposed to the World Council based on the ratio of each individual nation’s gross national product (GNP) in comparison to the mean GNP of all the nations. Thus, the very richest nations would pay the largest tax, while the very poorest nations would have a negative tax, which means receiving income from the tax fund. The purpose of the tax is to establish long-term programs to improve economies. "Thus, the rich nations would pay to make the poor nations richer."
The United Nations: Policy and Financing Alternatives: Innovative Proposals by Visionary Leaders. Edited by Harland Cleveland, Hazel Henderson, and Inge Kaul. Futures May, 1995. U.S. Edition 1996, The Global Commission to Fund the U.N., Washington, D.C. Useful to scenario work.
"Capital markets and world trade become more democratic, orderly, truly
efficient, and socially and environmentally responsible. Reveals how prices
can reflect true costs through fees on use of global common resources,
taxes on arms shipments, speculation, waste and pollution, and how such
new international agreements can provide new revenue streams for a restructured
United Nations and finance equitable, sustainable, human development."
Contributers include: Keith Bezanson, Emilio Cardenas, Robert Cassani,
Erskine Childers, Oliver Giscard d’Estaing, Jo Marie Griesgraber, Alan
F. Kay, John Langmore MP, Ruben Mendez, Morris Miller, and Maurice Strong.
This book is as indispensible to policy-makers, academics and NGOs
as it is to finance ministers.
The World 2010: A Decline of Superpower Influence. Charles W. Taylor,. Carlisle Barracks PA: US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, July 1986/51p. A world power scenario to 2010.
The superpowers that once dominated the world in the 20th Century have lost substantial power and influence. New alliances of nations are forming and increasing, contributing to more intense competitive pressures and the possibility of armed conflict is ever present. This scenario plausibly describes linkages of events to show that there has been no World War since World War II., and no major depression since the early part of the 20th Century. By 2010, global population has increased to 7 billion people and the global financial integration trend continues to thrive strongly, creating more interdependence among nations, as well as new economic arrangements. The US was once the only leader and superpower of the world in 1997, but by 2010, the US lost its economic, political, and military influence substantially. In spite of this, the U.S. remains the most powerful nation in the world. This scenario misses the demise of the USSR, one of the countries described as less competitive on the world scene. The author goes on to describe that the world in 2010 as a progressive realignment to a new order of nations within five very distinct groups: postindustrial (US, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand), advanced industrial (Israel, South Arica, Taiwan), transitioning industrial (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico), industrial (China, Cuba, Philippines, South Korea, USSR), pre-industrial (all others, including the once-wealthy oil and resource-rich countries).
Fraternity
Reigns. Richard Rorty. New York Times Magazine, September 29, 1996.
A conflict scenario to the year 2044.
A scenario that tells the story of a world where the breakdown of democratic
institutions during the Dark Years of 2014-2044 led to a painful recovery
that forever changed the political vocabulary, sense of moral order, and
economic order. In 2044, the atrocities of the have have-not gap that were
taken for granted in the late 20th to early 21st century, have virtually
disappeared since the violent revolutions arose to teach the stern lesson
that we cannot be dominated simply by "rights." It goes beyond rights –
it goes into the realm of fraternity. "During the first part of the 21st
century, the pressures of a globalized world economy , the gap between
most Americans incomes and those of the lucky one-third at the top widened.
Looking back, we think how easy it would have been for our great grandfathers
to have forestalled the social collapse that resulted from these economic
pressures. They could have insisted that all classes had to confront the
new global economy together." The scenario illustrates America rebuilding
herself slowly; Europe is ahead of the world, mainly because this region
had a substantial welfare system in place.
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SDI: What Could Happen: 8 Possible Star Wars Scenarios. John Rhea. Harrisburg PA: Stackpole Books, July 1988/136. Eight star wars scenarios to 21st century.
The author writes about the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) and portrays eight scenarios on the future of SDI. These scenarios are portrayed as imaginary news articles from various newspapers and journals. Scenarios range from the story of a fatal flaw resulting in full-scale nuclear war to the complete cancellation of SDI. Of interest is a scenario of a December 1999 article in IEEE Spectrum titled, National Academy of Sciences Warns of Perils from Continuing ‘Star Wars’ Research, in which the molecular engineering research that was originally launched under the SDI initiative (canceled five years ago), has created little nano-computers, originally designated to be "bio-chips" for new seventh generation computers, but they went out of control, and are capable of self-replication and wiping out all life on the planet. "The problem, according to the Academy, is there is no assurance that the growth process of self-replication can be stopped once it begins." According to the article, the National Academy of Sciences report was "quietly being circulated among high level government officials."
A Nightmare. Morton A. Kaplan. Article from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. World scenario to 2044.
Aldous Huxley in Brave New World and George Orwell in 1984 wrote about anti-utopias in which ever present social controls would change the nature of man and of society. A Nightmare scenario by Kaplan proposes that in the mid-21st Century, it is technologically feasible to increase vast social controls to control the vulnerabilities of modern complex society. "Although modern complex society has both greater instantaneous and long-range flexibility than simpler societies, it also has less redundancy and more bottlenecks that could affect the whole society. Thus, major interruptions that overwhelm its instantaneous or short-run flexibility to get a chance to work, might cause great damage to the society." In this scenario, Kaplan describes a disrupted complex society susceptible to deliberate terrorist attacks accompanied by blackmail, organized crime, nuclear weapons in the hands of criminals, and conspiracies capable of bringing civil government to a halt. Vast social control becomes necessary to overcome terrorism. This scenario balances the choice between two nightmares: terrorism or vast social control in the "big brother" sense.
Alternative Futures for the State Courts of 2020. Jim Dator and Sharon J. Rodgers Chicago, IL: American Judicature Society, July 1991/206p. Seven scenarios of U.S. state courts to 2020.
Seven Scenarios sketched on what may happen to state courts in 2020. Scenario 1.) Judicial Leadership: State courts fill a leadership vacuum. Improvements in education and recruitment of judges and innovative adoption of technology by the courts lead people to put more faith in the judicial system. Scenario 2.) Generic Justice: all government sectors shrink except the military. Scarce resources retard adoption of technology and lower quality of judicial administration; nonetheless, an abundance of lawyers spurs proliferation of tort and product liability cases. Scenario 3.) Road Warrior: characterized by apocalyptic environmental collapse and global depression. Frontier justice prevails a la the Road Warrior and Mad Max movies. Scenario 4.) Multi-Door Courthouse: centers on the rise of alternative dispute resolution, which saves a court system choking on a backlog of cases, and alternative corrective techniques, which includes substantial decriminalization and a move to education-based approaches. Scenario 5.) Global High-Tech: involves the heavy adoption of technology, including electronic direct democracy and a flourishing of artificial intelligence. Robots are added to a United Beings Declaration of Rights. 6.) Super Surveillance: characterized by technology being used for surveillance, control, and the denial of human rights. Biological technologies, including cloning, are also used as tools of power and control, leading to the "Gene Wars." 7.) Green and Feminist: steps in following the collapse of capitalism. Communities flourish as the nation-state declines. Society emphasizes removing root causes of crime and the judiciary emphasizes rehabilitation.
Scenarios of State Government in the Year 2010. Thomas Bonnett & Robert L. Olson Council of Governors’ Policy Advisors, 1993. Three scenarios of state government in the year 2010.
The Institute for Alternative Futures conducted a study of state governments for the Council of Governor’s Policy Advisors. After surveying trends and driving forces, the following scenarios were constructed. The original paper is rich in detail. Scenario 1.) The Entrepreneurial State: "State governments have become lean and efficient. Most agencies and programs have clear missions and priorities. Accountability measures have been developed that focus on both social benefits (effectiveness) and program costs (efficiency). State governments use of various strategies to improve their performance and the quality of services; privatization, decentralized management, market-based incentives and user fees,, and broadly dispersed technology." Scenario 2.) The Withering State: "State governments have become much smaller than they were during the 1980s. They retain direct responsibility for the criminal justice system, transportation, and public health; but they provide relatively few direct services and often not of high quality. State governments resemble holding companies; formula grants to localities constitute most of their budgets; they also contact with providers, communities, and nonprofit organizations to privide services." Scenario 3.) The Restructured State: "State governments in the year 2010 have primary responsibility for education, health services, housing, community and economic development, employment and training, social services, airports, and roads. Moreover, they ar excelling at assuming these broad responsibilities, demonstrating high levels of planning, coordination, and management. Additional public resources combined with the elimination of federal regulations for hundreds of categorical programs have given state officials and managers tremendous flexibility and autonomy in shaping domestic policy and in designing programs creatively."
European Security Beyond the Cold War: Four Scenarios for the Year 2010. Adrian Hyde-Price of the U of South Hampton, Sage Publications, June 1991/272p. Four European security scenarios to 2010.
A study of the underlying structural dynamics of European interrelationships. The implications are examined in a set of scenarios. Scenario 1.) NATO and an ‘Atlanticist’ Europe: NATO has adapted to the demands of the post-Cold War world and had developed into one of the central institutions of the new Europe; its view of European security is mostly Anglo-American and politically conservative. Scenario 2.) A West European Defense Community : the European security system has changed much more radically than scenario 1, with the emergence of a "West European Defense Community" as an alternative to an ‘Atlanticist’ Europe based on NATO, which is declining. Scenario 3.) The CSCE and a Pan-European Collective Security System: a pan-European system of collective security is established, based on an institutional CSCE, with an institutional ensemble—a CSCE Parliamentary Assembly; regular meetings of heads of state and government, and of foreign and other ministers; many specialist agencies; and its core, a European Security Council. Scenario 4.) : L’Europe des Etats : describes a Europe without cohesive blocs, military alliances or multilateral security structures and thus is different from the other three scenarios, which characterize an ‘architectural’ structure - solidity, stability, firmness and order. In this case, the ‘European idea’ does not assume institutional form, and the value of supranational forms of integration is low. Thus, a new European security system will be established on the continued centrality and vitality of the nation-state, without superpower hegemony and bipolar bloc structures.
Pentagon Imagines New Enemies To Fight in Post-Cold-War Era. Patrick E. Tyler, The New York Times, Monday, 17 Feb 1992, p1. Seven war scenarios to the 21st century.
This article was based on some 70 pages of a classified Pentagon document. There was concern that the Pentagon was inventing a menu of alarming war scenarios to prevent further cancellation of forces or reductions of weapons. The article outlines seven scenarios. Scenario 1.) Panama: Right wing elements allied with Colombian drug traffickers mount a coup against Panama’s civilian leaders, threatening the Panama Canal. Scenario 2.) Baltics: Russia attacks Poland and Lithuania. Belarus fights with Russia while Ukraine stays neutral. NATO responds. Scenario 3.) Baltics (II): out of the former Soviet Union or from some combination of powerful nations, a new, anti-democratic and expansionist superpower emerges to threaten U.S. interests, calling for a total mobilization for global war in the year 2001. Scenario 4.) Persian Gulf: Iraq invades Kuwait and northeast Saudi Arabia with 2,000 tanks and 21 divisions seeking to capture oil fields, air bases and sea ports. Scenario 5.) Persian Gulf (II): As Iraq invades Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, North Korea seizes the moment to strike South Korea, taxing U.S. support forces and supply lines. Scenario 6.) Korea: North Korea, using the cover of a peace initiative, attacks South Korea with 300,000 troops and 5,000 tanks seeking to capture Seoul. Scenario 7.) Philippines: A coup degenerates into factional fighting and some forces seize American hostages at the Subic Bay naval base and threaten 5,000 Americans still living in the area.
Future
Wars: The World’s Most Dangerous Flashpoints. Col. Trevor N. Dupuy
NY: Warner Books, Jan 1993/334p. Speculative scenarios of where war might
break out in the next five years to early 21st century.
Useful analysis of potential wars using speculative scenarios that
suggest why a war would break out and how it would be fought. Using a Tactical
Numerical Deterministic Model, a computerized combat simulation is provided.
This model is used in various defense agencies and ministries throughout
the world. Altogether, this book contains eight richly written scenarios
covering most regions of the world. Possible global flashpoints are: *
The Third Gulf War * The Fourth India-Pakistan War * The Sandinista War
* The War for Transylvania * The Libya-Egypt War * The Second Korean War
* The Second War for Africa * The Sixth Arab-Israeli War * The Sino-Russian
Border War. Examples of two scenarios: 1.) The Sixth Arab-Israeli War:
"The Intifada, the Palestinian revolt, intensifies throughout the West
Bank and Gaza. Egypt breaks diplomatic relations with Israel. The combined
air forces of Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt invade the skies over
Israel. The sixth Arab-Israeli war has begun." Scenario 2.) The Second
South Korean War: "South Korean student protesters, marching to the demilitarized
zone separating their country from North Korea, are fired on by South Korean
security forces, resulting in early 1,000 casualties and worldwide cries
of protest. Wildly escalating tensions culminate in air and artillery strikes
by North Korea against the South that launch, in turn, the second Korean
War."
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The Second Annual End-of-the-World Forecast. Michael A. Leeden. International Economy v8 July-August 1994P 8-11. Three end-of-the-world scenarios to the 21st century.
Interesting article that examines the possibilities of the end-of-the-world in the context of three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Ex-Soviet Union: the war of the military/KGB vs. The Mafiosa. Worsening relations and distrust among the military and intelligence agencies are pitted against the Mafia, particularly in Russia, but other nations are involved as well since the Mafia is an extended international network. Scenario 2.) The Middle East: Saddam’s Revenge Against the Beast: describes a world in which Saddam Hussein is finally able to get "an eye for an eye" by political and military maneuvers. This involves not only conventional weaponry, but also biological and chemical weaponry. Scenario 3.) World War: Religious War: in this scenario, religion, traditionally the means for community, becomes a catalyst for war. Basic tenants are taken out of context and used to inflame many groups. Ethnicity is passionately on the rise.
Toward a Dangerous World: U.S. National Security Strategy for the Coming Turbulence. Richard L. Kugler RAND Copyright 1995. Http:// info rand org/publications/MR/MR485/ World security scenario to the 21st century.
This report is the final product of RAND’s two-year National Defense Research Institute (NDRI) project on the future of the US. It examines the foreign policy and national security implications of a single dominant hypothesis: that a dangerous world may lie ahead, a world of greater turbulence thantoday's. The study proposes a scenario with three main aspects: political and economic tension in three primary regions--Asia, the Middle East/Persian Gulf, and Europe; geopolitical relations of the West with Russia and China, and tenuous Western Alliance cohesion. It examines the interrelationships of all three aspects and postulates U.S. policy for a new global alliance for security and prosperity to handle those aspects of a dangerous future. The policy emphasizes domestic economic recovery, protects U.S. interests and allies, advances democratic values, and pursues global stability. The study further analyzes the five regions of the scenario to identify military imbalances that could contribute to destabilization and a dangerous world. It then proposes a military strategy to plan for missions ranging from peacetime stability to regional nuclear conflicts.
Long Range Forecasting in the Pentagon. Helena P. Page. The World Today July-August 1982. Set of global security scenarios to 21st century.
BDM Corporation, a Washington based consulting firm with extensive experience in defense research, was commissioned by the Pentagon to look at long-range strategic appraisal, which was incorporated into the Joint Chiefs of Staff official long-range forecast of 1981. From the perspective of 1981, the Pentagon was experimenting with several new forecasting methodologies, including scenarios to help look at combinations of worlds and emerging patterns. Because this study combines various patterns and combinations of worlds, these scenarios are of interest, particularly scenario four. Four alternative worlds are described. Scenario 1.) Muted Bi-Polarity: a continuation of the present into the next century, with the main assumption that a strategic balance between the superpowers would be maintained. NATO would be the principle area of political/military concern, and the Soviet Union the principle adversary. The world is characterized by ‘muted’ conflicts in both political and economic terms. Nuclear proliferation would continue creating conflicts between old and aspiring nuclear powers and between emerging powers of the Third World. Scenario 2.) Super Power Conflict: was conceived as a ‘Cold War’ environment. In this world, the two superpowers not only increase their antagonism towards one another but they also increase their influence over their allies and throughout the world. Scenario 3.) Super Power Cooperation: a world of super-power co-operation where the policy of détente is successful. In this world, not only were tensions between the two superpowers presumed to have declined, but cooperation in political and economic affairs between the super-powers was hypothesized. The other characteristics of this world were also shaped by this key factor. Scenario 4) Devolution of Power: the devolution of power away from the super—powers toward emerging regional powers. In World D it was assumed that the super-powers would possess declining influence and power in relation to coalitions of nations.
To Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios. Herman Kahn. Greenwood Press, Westport, Conn. 1986, c1965. An escalation scenario.
This classic book is a study of escalation and why a nation might deliberately seek to escalate a crisis. It analyzes a spectrum of international crisis and a selection of mechanisms for dealing with them, along with focusing attention on the use and misuse of escalation tactics and strategies. Provides a "Standard Crisis" scenario that demonstrates how escalation can be conceivably developed and how attempts to arrest a crisis could be interfered with - from real or imagined technical problems, official or unofficial sabotage, defiance or unauthorized behavior, misunderstandings, miscalculation. In the scenario, the scene is Germany from the view of 1967: there is unrest and a precipitating incidence of violence in East Germany or Berlin, followed by a high level of popular agitation with street violence in East Germany. Kahn shows how 19 more incidences unfold, and each incident causes heightened escalation to the point where the U.S. and/or Soviets (now former Soviets) make a large counterforce strike. This scenario is not plausible since the crisis could be stopped at any given point, but it demonstrates that escalation can reach a critical point quickly.
Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. Joseph S. Nye, Jr. NY: Basic Books, March 1990/307p. Scenarios of the U.S. to the 21st century.
This book that provides an analysis of U.S. power toward the end of the century. Four visions of the future of American leadership in the world are sketched. Scenario 1.) Bipolarity: a continuation or restoration of the US-USSR (now former USSR) relationship. Scenario 2.) Multipolarity: the US, Europe, Soviet Union, China, and Japan with similar levels of power. Scenario 3.) Regional Blocs: a world of three large trading blocs. Scenario 4.) Polyarchy: a situation of many communities, spheres of influence, interdependencies, and trans-state loyalties, with no clearly dominant axis of alignment and antagonism and no central steering group.
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