Scenarios generated by the Millennium Project:
Three Middle East Peace Scenarios (English, Arabic, and Hebrew )
Future S&T Management Policy Issues -- 2025 Global Scenarios
Global Normative Scenario - 2050
Very Long-Range Scenarios - 3000
Global Exploratory Scenarios - 2025
Scenarios collected by the Millennium
Project: Annotated Scenarios Bibliography
Click on the following links to view a brief abstract of the scenarios:
Futureland; Nine Stories of an Imminent World Author: Walter Mosley
Four Alternative Global Futures. Author: CIA, Global Futures Project
The Global HIV/AIDS Crisis. Authors: Seth Berkley, Peter Piot, Alan Whiteside
World Forecasts. Author: Prospective 2100
The World in 2050. Author: Nick Bostrom
2099: A Eutopia – Prospects for Tomorrow. Author: Yorick Blumenfeld
Scenarios to 2020. The Challenge Network Forum, directed by Dr. Oliver Sparrow
The World in 2050. The Economist in collaboration with Shell Oil Company
PAHO of the Future: Alternative Scenarios. Author: Cristina Puentes-Markides
Creating Global-Local Cultures of Peace. Authors: Linda Groff and Paul Smoker
Is it Simply Boom, Interrupted?
Four Human Resources Development Scenarios of the Future. Author: Joe Willmore
Futurology --- Futures Off the Shelf: What's around the bend?
Global Trends 2015. Report prepared under the direction of the National Intelligence Council (NIC)
Future of Food. Author: Sohail Inayatullah
Hello 21st Century – A Letter to the Year 2100. Author: Roger Rosenblatt
A Global Good Morning With a Cup of Coffee and a Click, the World Comes to you Each Morning. Author: John R. Moran
The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age
21 Ideas for the 21st Century. Authors: Peter Coy, Neil Gross
Which World? Three Global Scenarios : Choose the World We Want. Author: Allen Hammond
Humanity Comes Into It’s Own – The First Truly Human and Global Society. Author: Jesse Ausubel
Technology Spares the Environment. Cal-Tech Scenarios
Global Scenarios for the Millennium. Author: Hardin Tibbs
The Future of the Global Village. Author: Anthony Mutsaers
Technology and Human Responsibility. Daily Meditations for the Computer-Entranced
2020 Scenarios: Five Nations Emerge as Economic Powers. Author: Kohei Murayama
Women of the Future: Alternative Scenarios. Author: Christopher B. Jones
A Message to Us From Future Generations. Author: Allen Tough
Millennium Scenarios - People Making the Difference
Three Detection Scenarios. Author: Allen Tough
The 2025 Report: A Concise History of the Future, 1975-2025. Author: Norman Macrae
Art of the Longview. Author: Peter Schwartz
Encyclopedia of the Future. Edited by George Thomas Kurian and Graham T.T. Molitor
Thinking About the Unthinkable in the 1980s. Author: Herman Kahn
An International Planning Dialogue to Help Shape the New Global System. Author: William E. Halal
Building a Win-Win World: Life Beyond Global Economic Warfare. Author: Hazel Henderson
A Utopian World. Author: Morton A. Kaplan.
A Condensed Version of the Next Century. Author: Jeannie Peterson
Forced Options: Social Decisions for the 21st Century. (Second Edition). Author: Roger Lincoln Shinn
The New World Disorder. Author: Peter Schwartz, president Global Business Network
The World in 2010: A Moral and Political Portrait. Author: Michael Novak
Five Scenarios for the Year 2000. Author: Franco Ferrarotti
One World, Many Worlds - Struggles for a Just World Peace. Author: R.B. J. Walker
A Short History of the Future. Author: W. Warren Wagar
The Great Turning: Personal Peace, Global Victory. Authors: Craig Schindler and Gary Lapid
Alternative World Scenarios for Strategic Planning. Author: Charles W. Taylor
History of the Future: A Chronology. Authors: Peter Lorie and Sidd Murphy
Future Mind: Artificial Intelligence. Author: Jerome Glenn
The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future. Author: John L. Peterson
The State of the World’s Children 1995. Author: James P. Grant
Utopia Lost: The United Nations and World Order. Author: Rosemary Righter
Millennium - Toward Tomorow’s Society. Author: Francis Kinsman
How to Build Scenarios. Author: Lawrence Wilkerson
The Future of Cultures. Coordinated by Eleonora Masini
Looking Back From the 21st Century. Author: Hazel Henderson
2025:Scenarios
of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. Author:
Joseph Coates
Story: “The Greatest”, Page 27
In The Greatest, Walter Mosley describes both a feminist political
future and a drug culture.
The main character is Fera Jones, a 21 year old female who stands six
foot nine inches tall and weighs 260 pounds. Fera is a product of SepFem-G,
a now outlawed genetics program based at Smith College.
Fera is a boxer. No one, not man nor woman, has ever beaten her in
the ring. She is a star, especially among the largest spectator group
of the fights – women; and a symbol of the strength of women. The FemLeague
political party, now the third largest party in Congress and the FemLeague
Governor of Massachusetts want her as their “pinup girl.” They believe
her alignment will help the party stem corporate power, end starvation,
end militias, and increase women power.
In the background of this feminist political future is a drug culture,
in which Fera’s father participates. He and many others in this society,
are addicted to a legal recreational drug called Pulse. Pulse was the product
of students at CalTech, who wanted to create a drug that would warp time
in the brain so they could do months of complex research in just one evening.
But instead, they created a drug that altered the structure of the pleasure
centers of the brain, giving temporarily consciousness control over dreams,
taking the users into complex fantasies, passionate love affairs, musical
performances and other sensual experiences that would for days and even
weeks.
Pulse was legal in this society, approved by the government and even
price controlled. Pulse parlors were everywhere; and the economy was stimulated
by the money spent by its users.
However, after 4-5 uses of the drug, users were addicted for life.
Without regular ingestion, the brain would collapse in on itself and death
was assured. “Pulsedeath” was common, at least among the average and poor.
Only the rich could afford to use it regularly; and even they eventually
died.
In this scenario, Fera agrees to the biggest fight of her career, one
against the male heavyweight champ. Fera will get $10 billion to fight
and $10 billion if she wins from the Luna Land theme park for saying she’ll
go to Luna Land after the fight. She takes both – to help keep her father
on Pulse.
Four
Alternative Global Futures. Author: CIA, Global Futures Project
From www.futurestudies.co.uk/predictions
The following scenarios were developed by the (US) CIA's Global Futures Project and describe four alternative futures related to the effects of globalization through the year 2015. These alternative futures are: Inclusive Globalization; Pernicious Globalization; Regional Competition; and Post Polar World.
Scenario One: Inclusive Globalization In this scenario, the majority of the world’s population is reaping benefits from globalization. Policy consensus regarding economic liberalization has resulted in a robust global economy where wealth is widely distributed; technology has been effectively applied to mitigate some problems in the developing countries; and governance is effective, both nationally and internationally. Many governmental functions have been completely or partially privatized. “Global co-operation intensifies on many issues through a variety of international arrangements.” Meanwhile, “a minority of the world's people - in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and the Andean region - do not benefit from these positive changes, and internal conflicts persist in and around those countries left behind.”
Scenario Two: Pernicious Globalization In this scenario, the majority of the world's population is failing to benefit from globalization. The global economy is divided: growth continues in developed countries; at the same time, many developing countries see low or negative per capita growth, resulting in a growing gap with the developed world; and the illicit economy grows dramatically. Technology has failed to help mitigate the problems of the developing world. The poor migrate, resulting in tensions between states. “Governance and political leadership are weak at both the national and international levels. Internal conflicts increase, fuelled by frustrated expectations, inequities, and heightened communal tensions; WMD proliferate and are used in at least one internal conflict.”
Scenario Three: Regional Competition In scenario three, regional identities “increase in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, driven by growing political resistance in Europe and East Asia to US global preponderance and US-driven globalization.” However, regional economic integration increases, “resulting in both fairly high levels of economic growth and rising regional competition.” Technology has been unevenly diffused. In developed and emerging nations, governance thrives; regional institutions take on more responsibilities. “Internal conflicts increase in and around other countries left behind.”
Scenario Four: Post-Polar World In the Post Polar World, the US economy stagnates. Economic and political tensions between the US and Europe grow and the relationship between the two deteriorates. Crises in governance in Latin America, particularly Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Panama, create instability in the area. Indonesia experiences internal crises and instability as well, although most of Asia is stable and prosperous. Korea’s unification proceeds, with the support of China and Japan. Eventually, however, rivalries among the Asian powers grow, triggering increased military activities. “Regional and global institutions prove irrelevant to the evolving conflict situation in Asia, as China issues an ultimatum to Japan to dismantle its nuclear program and Japan—invoking its bilateral treaty with the US—calls for US reengagement.” Countries outside of Asia, the Americas, and Europe are marginalized, having no sources of political or financial support.
Summary:
“In all but the first scenario, globalization does not create
widespread global cooperation. Rather, in the second scenario, globalization's
negative effects promote extensive dislocation and conflict, while in the
third and fourth, they spur regionalism.
“In all four scenarios, countries negatively affected by population growth, resource scarcities and bad governance, fail to benefit from globalization, are prone to internal conflicts, and risk state failure.
“In all four scenarios, the effectiveness of national, regional, and international governance and at least moderate but steady economic growth are crucial.
“In all four scenarios, US global influence wanes.”
The
Global HIV/AIDS Crisis. Authors: Seth Berkley, Peter Piot, Alan Whiteside,
World Economic Forum, Annual Meeting, 2003
http://www.weforum.org/pdf/Initiatives/GHI_2003_HIVAIDS_Scenario.pdf
In this paper, the authors provide best and worse case scenarios related to the AIDS epidemic and its impact on sufferers, societies, and economies.
Best-Case Scenario: Fighting Back, Saving Lives “In a best-case scenario, the rich countries give 0.7% of their GDP to development, coupled with debt relief. At the same time there is a renewed focus on research and development to produce new vaccines and more effective drugs.
“In the countries most affected by the disease, governments, business and civil society unite to build the infrastructure to care for millions living with HIV. They provide vaccines to prevent its further spread. Fewer people contract AIDS and live with the disease, and they have greater support.
*Africa: countries with infections rates of 30%-40% in 2002 fall to
15% by 2010 and 5% by 2020.
*Eastern Europe and Central Asia: infection rates reach 2%-3% by 2010
and then fall to 0.5% by 2020.
*Asia: India’s national prevalence never reaches 1% because prevention
efforts keep the epidemic at bay. China has regional outbreaks but national
prevalence never reaches 0.5%.
“By 2020, the epidemic still isn’t over. The number of people infected in Southern Africa, Russia, India and China continues to rise but at a slower rate. Notably, India and China introduce massive new programmes of sex education for school children and economic migrants. The fight against AIDS actually empowers women and brings their voices to bear on a range of social issues. More young people decide to postpone sex, stick to one partner and are tested together before having unprotected sex. The social stigma of AIDS is lifted.
“There are still enormous pressures on the education and health systems and a quarter to one third of skilled and educated workers have died. Despite some tough years, however, significant financial and technical cooperation from richer countries ensure that governments survive.
“Medical breakthroughs lead to the development of a vaccine by 2010 and there is a global effort to get the vaccine and AIDS drugs to the people who need them. A microbicide gel that protects women during sex is an important breakthrough. Activists continue to campaign for lower prices, bulk purchasing and tiered pricing. However, they work closely with industry to ensure that incentives for research remain.
“AIDS is seen to be everybody’s problem, although it directly affects fewer people. There is a sea change when the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria gives money to major companies and civil society to run joint HIV programmes in their local communities. Governments support broad corporate initiatives in HIV/AIDS through tax breaks and training. This is a world where strong leadership and growing cooperation between governments, business and society have begun to turn the tide. An end in the epidemic is in sight.”
Worst-Case Scenario: A World in Crisis “In the worst-case scenario, some leaders continue to deny the threat of AIDS. Instead of tackling the epidemic, time and effort is wasted arguing over the number of infected people. At the same time HIV remains a taboo in some countries, preventing mass education and prevention.
“By 2020, Africa has been decimated by the disease. Many international businesses have left Southern Africa because the lack of educated staff makes hiring and training too expensive. The same will soon be true of parts of Africa. There are widespread food shortages because of scarce labour and a shift to subsistence farming for immediate survival.
*Africa: by 2020, around 60-70 million people are dead. In the most
affected countries, 15%-30% of workers are HIV positive and GDP is 30%
lower than predicted.
*Eastern Europe and Central Asia: the countries of the former Soviet
Union have an adult prevalence of between 1% and 5%.
*Asia: the continent surpasses Africa as the region with the most HIV/AIDS.
More then 30 million people have died.
“So many teachers have fallen victim to AIDS that he schools have been forced to close. Orphaned children with few options join the many local conflicts.
“Eastern Europe and Central Asia are also suffering a serious HIV epidemic with tuberculosis raging alongside AIDS. Major businesses have begun to leave the region and recession, mass unemployment and disintegrating public services mean that intravenous drug use – often linked to prostitution – proliferates.
“Asia also faces an AIDS disaster. In China and India authorities view the dying as “surplus” and feel that others can take their place in the economy. International businesses still invest in the region with confidence.
“The Chinese and Indian governments pride themselves on keeping the overall prevalence rate below other countries but become ever more heavy handed to control the epidemic. Sex workers, drug users and HIV sufferers can all expect periods of detention. Almost 5% of migrant workers are infected, bringing the next wave of the epidemic with them.
“The stigma of HIV deepens globally. India’s middle class, for example, sees AIDS as a problem of the poor. Elsewhere, infected people and their families are shunned, breeding increasing ignorance and fuelling the virus’ spread.
“In the West, infected people live almost normal lives on long term treatment. Vaccines protect the rest of the population. However, in other parts of the world unmonitored and uncontrolled use of drugs breeds worse strains of HIV. Drug companies, fearful of losing intellectual property protection, reduce investment in new treatments.
“This is a world of increasing tensions, social divisions, inequity and fear. Some governments have failed to learn the lessons of earlier epidemics in other countries. Millions of people expect to contract AIDS, to see their children die and to die themselves in their 30s and 40s.”
World
Forecasts. Author: Prospective 2100
http://2100.org
(Author note: Prospective 2100 is a not for profit organization of international thinkers who have come together to “promote future studies for useful decision making.”)
Members of Prospective 2100, a not-for-profit organization dedicated to the task of promoting “future studies for useful decision making” has constructed a series of global scenarios and forecasts through 2100. These scenarios, summarized below, are: Show Business Society (1980-2020); Education Society (2020-2060); and Creation Society (2060-2100).
Show Business Society, 1980-2020: In this scenario, the world is composed of “irascible ethnic groups, attached to past values and making a fetish out of the possession of their territory or their privileged position.” By this time, fundamentalism in Lebanon, Yugoslavia, India, central Asia and Africa has grown, ethnic persecutions are continuing, and Asia is rearming. Racial conflicts occur. Belief in the power of force is still widespread and reinforced by the temporary successes of warlords and mafias. Despair is evident as millions look for work but there are fewer and fewer entrepreneurs to employ them.
“Major entrepreneurs buy out television stations and money and credibility become entangled.” Stock markets are systemically linked, moving billions of dollars around the world on sheer speculation. Meanwhile, the weather is increasingly unpredictable
Education Society, 2020-2060: By this time, over half of the world’s population is living in urban settings and the atmosphere in these huge cities, whether Los Angeles, Mexico City, Bombay or Algiers, is permeated with feelings of insecurity. Over a billion people have been driven off their land, unable to compete with industrialized agriculture. Children, unable to farm as their families have always done, wander the streets, with no schooling available and no means to incorporate themselves into the modern, technological world.
At this time, Eastern Europe, China and India are in a frantic search for profit. The commitment, however, to a liberal economy has turned out to be “no more than a cover for mafias. Power has remained in the same hands but transfigured...” The world is no longer divided geographically into rich and poor countries; now the rich and poor co- exist within meters of each other, but not comfortably. The market for bombproof devices, locks and video surveillance flourishes as it has never before.
The education society emerges, using mental training software and compulsory conditioning tests to shape minds and monitor daily activities. Social control becomes highly regulated, supported by the appropriate technology. "Cities of education are constructed in isolated areas with the aim of integrating the "human animal" into its scientific and technical environment.”
Creation Society, 2060-2100: In this scenario, the dangers of social upheaval have receded. People are rejecting the restrictions of the past, and revealing themselves creatively. They pursue freedom, and prize independence and universality. Quality of life, self sufficiency, creativity, and the creation of new environments are seen as universal values. As a result, people in this society have created living structures and communities that are small, transportable, and independent. They can be set up anywhere – in the deserts, on ice floes, at the bottom of the ocean, or on hollow artificial planets.
Health Care Innovation in the 21st Century - IAF Scenarios for 2010 - A sequel to the Belmont Vision. Author: Institute for Alternative Futures
http://www.altfutures.com/pubs/healthinvscenario.pdf
These scenarios, created by the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) explore the possible futures of health care in the year 2010.
Scenario 1) Steady Innovation Focused on Outcomes: “Accountability and the search for cost-effective care frame the reward structure for pursuing health care innovation. While some major breakthroughs occur, the greatest advances are in terms of disease management and the budding partnerships between managed care providers and R&D organizers.”
Scenario 2) Innovation Stagnates: “The escalating costs of discovery and development – coupled with federal funding retrenchment, price controls on drugs and devices, sluggish regulatory approval processes, health care provider-initiated constraints on using expensive new therapeutics, and the failure of biotechnology to produce appropriate breakthroughs – has led to an even riskier R&D environment. There is only marginal health care innovation, and many players drop out.”
Scenario 3) Paradigm Shifts Accelerate Innovation: New genetic knowledge enables biochemical customization of therapies. Concurrently, enhanced therapeutic and behavioral tools are being developed in partnerships that include leading entertainment and information companies. Development costs have been lowered and approvals accelerated due to biomonitoring, more effective health care provider involvement and dramatic changes in regulatory processes. Nurses and other health care practitioners can access specialist knowledge through expert systems and thereby perform many functions and services more cost effectively than physicians.”
Scenario 4) Innovation That Moves Beyond Treating Individuals: The line between innovation and care delivery has blurred as new models provide ways to move upstream on many chronic diseases. Alternative therapies and community approaches are regularly integrated into therapeutic decision-making. The public actively participates in health care innovation, setting priorities for public research dollars and volunteering for clinical trials.
Global
Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts.
Central Intelligence Agency
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html
In September-October 1999, the NIC initiated work on Global Trends 2015 by cosponsoring with Department of State/INR and CIA's Global Futures Project two unclassified workshops on “Alternative Global Futures: 2000-2015.” The first workshop identified major factors and events that would drive global change including demography, natural resources, science and technology, the global economy, governance, social/cultural identities, and conflict; the second workshop developed four alternative global futures in which these drivers would interact in different ways through 2015.
Scenario 1) Inclusive Globalization: “A virtuous circle develops among technology, economic growth, demographic factors, and effective governance, which enables a majority of the world's people to benefit from globalization. Technological development and diffusion – in some cases triggered by severe environmental or health crises – are utilized to grapple effectively with some problems of the developing world. Robust global economic growth – spurred y a strong policy consensus on economic liberalization – diffuses wealth widely and mitigates many demographic and resource problems. Governance is effective at both the national and international levels. In many countries, the state's role shrinks, as its functions are privatized or performed by public-private partnerships, while global cooperation intensifies on many issues through a variety of international arrangements. Conflict is minimal within and among states benefiting from globalization. A minority of the world's people – in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and the Andean region – do not benefit from these positive changes, and internal conflicts persist in and around those countries left behind.”
Scenario 2) Pernicious Globalization: “Global elites thrive, but the majority of the world's population fails to benefit from globalization. Population growth and resource scarcities place heavy burdens on many developing countries, and migration becomes a major source of interstate tension. Technologies not only fail to address the problems of developing countries but also are exploited by negative and illicit networks and incorporated into destabilizing weapons. The global economy splits into three: growth continues in developed countries; many developing countries experience low or negative per capita growth, resulting in a growing gap with the developed world; and the illicit economy grows dramatically. Governance and political leadership are weak at both the national and international levels. Internal conflicts increase, fueled by frustrated expectations, inequities, and heightened communal tensions; WMD proliferate and are used in at least one internal conflict.”
Scenario 3) Regional Competition: “Regional identities sharpen in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, driven by growing political resistance in Europe and East Asia to US global preponderance and US-driven globalization and each region's increasing preoccupation with its own economic and political priorities. There is an uneven diffusion of technologies, reflecting differing regional concepts of intellectual property and attitudes towards biotechnology. Regional economic integration in trade and finance increases, resulting in both fairly high levels of economic growth and rising regional competition. Both the state and institutions of regional governance thrive in major developed and emerging market countries, as governments recognize the need to resolve pressing regional problems and shift responsibilities from global to regional institutions. Given the preoccupation of the three major regions with their own concerns, countries outside these regions in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central and South Asia have few places to turn for resources or political support. Military conflict among and within the three major regions does not materialize, but internal conflicts increase in and around other countries left behind.”
Scenario 4) Scenario Four: Post-Polar World: “US domestic preoccupation increases as the US economy slows, then stagnates. Economic and political tensions with Europe grow, the US-European alliance deteriorates as the United States withdraws its troops, and Europe turns inward, relying on its own regional institutions. At the same time, national governance crises create instability in Latin America… forcing the United States to concentrate on the region. Indonesia also faces internal crisis and risks disintegration, prompting China to provide the bulk of an ad hoc peacekeeping force. Otherwise, Asia is generally prosperous and stable, permitting the United States to focus elsewhere. Korea's normalization and de facto unification proceed, China and Japan provide the bulk of external financial support for Korean unification, and the United States begins withdrawing its troops from Korea and Japan. Over time, these geostrategic shifts ignite longstanding national rivalries among the Asian powers, triggering increased military preparations and hitherto dormant or covert WMD programs. Regional and global institutions prove irrelevant to the evolving conflict situation in Asia, as China issues an ultimatum to Japan to dismantle its nuclear program and Japan calls for US reengagement in Asia under adverse circumstances at the brink of a major war. Given the priorities of Asia, the Americas, and Europe, countries outside these regions are marginalized, with virtually no sources of political or financial support.
The
World in 2050. Author: Nick Bostrom
www.nickbostrom.com/2050/world.html
Structured as an interview broadcast by “BBC Virtual Reality” in August
2050, this scenario explores some of the social, political, economic and
technological issues that the world may have to face in the mid-21st century.
Although the scenario covers a range of issues including virtual reality,
cryonics and global warming, a central theme is the need to regulate molecular
nanotechnology because of its immense abuse potential, and the resulting
institution of an ever-present global surveillance network. Scenario
excerpt: “It’s amazing how quickly people have gotten used to the
idea that everything they do can now be known by anybody interested in
finding out. When you are going on a date with someone, you can check
out their previous relationships, and so on. If you had suggested
this to someone fifty years ago, they’d have been horrified! They
would probably have referred to it as Brave New World, or Orwell’s 1984,
with Big Brother watching you all the time. But it’s like a nudist
colony: when every
body is naked, the embarrassment quickly wears off. So we had
all these little secrets that we thought were so important, little vices.
But when we see that everybody has similar little vices, our standards
adapt and we become more tolerant.”
2099: A Eutopia – Prospects for Tomorrow. Author: Yorick Blumenfeld. Published by Thames & Hudson (January, 2000).
The author presents a glimpse into the daily life of a thriving inner-city community in the year 2099. A better world is imagined in remarkable detail -- from a macro-view to a city-view; then, to the point-of- view of the average citizen. Blumenfeld writes intimate stories that are not only detailed and creative, but highly spiritual. In the following excerpt from the book, 2099 sees the illegitimacy of money-driven markets, once held highly valued in the capitalist days of the early 21st Century. Special note: this book is one of the last of the few utopian books of the twentieth century, and, by presenting a broad perspective on one possible future, a series, known as “Proepects for Tomorrow” will be developed. This book encourages thinking along the level of a myriad of plausible futures in the next millennium.
Scenario: 2099: A Eutopia-Prospects for Tomorrow (excerpt from the book): “Since the worldwide ban on most unauthorized travel in 2061 and the regionalizaton of what used to be the infoweb in 2070, we know much less about each other than we used to a hundred years ago –even with our implanted cranial connex. So here I am in england,. Angry. Even frightened. I can’t pretend I’m computerly objective in this alian world, but over the next three weeks – in a series of a dozen public service encrypts on NAIntranet—I’m going to try to tell it to you as it is, issued by issue, I hope I’ll come out of it alive an mentally sound. Communicarianism, I’m told, can be contagious. Yes, both men and women swing their hips provocatively here though as yet, they’re not afflicted by a non-identity syndrome. Lofe is radically diff. I’ve come to give you something more than a panoramic view of the first community in the inner city to have been established almost 30 years ago. Standing on historic Mousehold Health. I can see communities as far as the eye can reach. Right below me is Yare, the community Right below me is Yare, the community from which I’m going ot transmit my log-ins. How are we going to rate Yare after one generation? I Is it a winner or is it simply a “no fun”? Have drugs here replavced vanilla?> It’s important to determine whether the people who live I n this city are free or whether they have somehow been corralled by an ideal. Are they bent on moral uplift like so many of our proto-Christian groups in NorAm? Is t really a community of programmed pleasures, regulated joys and standardized punishments ordained by a Machine Intelligence? Certainly xpectations were stratospheric when a hundred communities of about 1,800 members each were formed out of the historic city of Norwich in 2070. These units were modeled on some of the rural communes which had been successfully established two decades earlier. The Euro MI unit had carefully drawn the boundaries of each of these communities. It had listed who was to join in with who, what they were to do, and practically who was to sleep with who. This caused something of a local revolution, but all of it was patiently xplained I papers, videos, and meetings by the perspic MI. People were promised no hassles, no shoving, no crime. In one word: “civility”. “
A View of the Year 3000: A Ranking of the 100 Most Influential Persons of all Time. Author: Arturo Kukeni Michal H. Hart. Poseidon Press. 1999. The Futurist March-April 2000.
In 1978, Michael H. Hart, a college professor with degrees in
mathematics, astronomy, physics, computer science, and law, published a
book in which he ranked the 100 most influential persons of all time in
descending order. The author is currently retired and is now
a full time writer whose latest book, A View from the Year 3000 updates
his former top 100 rankings with substitutions and additions from the twenty-first
century and after.
Scenario: Who’s Who Tomorrow. (Excerpt from the book)
“ Writing from the vantage point of an extra thousand years, the book's
nominal author--Arturo Kukeni, Hart's "descendant" born in 2801--retains
only 35 names from Hart's original list--and most of these move well down
in rank. More than half of the year 3000's Top 100 are individuals born
in the twenty-first century or later--and their achievements are certainly
impressive. A few examples, and their rankings: #1 Chan Po-Yao
(2213-living), who gave quasi-immortality to humans by developing a practical
way to replace aging brain cells while retaining memory and personality.
#4 Rukmini Gopal (2370-living), who permanently ended the war between the
sexes when she perfected easy, safe, and reversible sex-change operations.
By 3000, most humans change back and forth between male and female freely.
#13 Miguel Carranza (2274-2413), statesman who shaped the United World
Federation, the first true world government. #26 John J. Maxwell
(2076-2163) founder of the first O'Neill space colony. (By the year 3000,
more than half the human race lives off-planet.) #96 Roberto Ferruchio
(2047-2086 and 2240-living), game designer who invented an elaborate team
sport combining elements of problem solving, wilderness survival, and mock
combat. (Stricken with incurable cancer, Ferruchio spent 154 years in cryogenic
suspension until medical science advanced to the point where he could be
revived and cured--hence the two sets of life dates.)”
Scenarios to 2020. The Challenge Network Forum, directed by Dr. Oliver Sparrow.
The Challenge Network has been involved with the design and facilitation of strategy processes for many years. In addition, this organization addresses issues necessitating foresight and scenario formation for the public and private sector. The following scenarios look to the year 2020, based on technological change, quantitative forecasts from authoritative sources, demographics, political structures; and, uniquely framing issues surrounding resource shortages.
Scenario One: Pushing the Edge. “The explosive growth of knowledge, of trained people and of connectivity create a period in which all of the aspirations expressed by capital markets in the Nineties are fulfilled. A glow of prosperity settles over, in particular, the USA. Science performs astonishing feats, and commerce is not far behind in making a technical reality of this potential. There is a view that government is a matter of competent administration, that most issues will settle themselves if exposed to a proper incentive structure and the fashion is, therefore, increasingly laisse faire. However, by 2010, cracks are appearing in this structure. They stem from two centres. One of these is the European societies with high levels of elderly people, notably those with poor pension provisions, such as Italy, Austria, Germany and France. Japan has similar problems and not dissimilar responses. Here, the golden glow of economic success is far from evenly distributed. The prevalent view of technological astonishment is highly negative. The politics of these regions are polarised between those who see the need to accommodate to fast change and a rejectionist, traditionalist group. These nations find themselves increasingly out of step with the cutting edge nations. The second set of crack stem from the inadequacy of institutions to deal with what is being thrust upon them. Regulation is put in place to deal with complex, interconnected issues which appears in retrospect to have been increasing clumsy and, where appropriate, rapidly superseded. Litigation increases, a plethora of complex regulation is enacted, growth slows. In the period after 2010, the major powers find themselves both at odds with each other politically and unable to cope with the stresses of change that are generated internally. Little attention is given to the emergent world and the poor world, save as partners in commerce. International institutions do not develop. However, the use of uncontained but dangerous technologies, the theft of intellectual property - the bane of the knowledge economy - and remote criminality all make the world a difficult place; and the widespread possession of offensive software, biological and other capabilities make it a dangerous one. Environmental issues are both the cause of much distress and, in places of conflict, but also something which the machinery is inadequate to address in an international arena.”
Scenario Two: Renewed Foundations “Capital market expectations are thwarted in the period after 2000 and growth is historically slow. The problem that lies behind this depression is twofold. The 'old' economy is in trouble. In some areas, a flood of low cost goods emanating from the low wage areas have commoditised whole industries. Process innovations that are made to heighten efficiency seem to be exported very swiftly. Productivity drives throw the least able into direct competition with low wage areas. The 'new' industries are, however, failing to deliver on their promise. An innovative treadmill generates new products but not much profit, and incidentally take all firms into what the public see as alarming areas. The second source of failure is in the public sector. States are consuming in the order of half of all added value, and directing four-fifths of this into welfare. The squeeze lessens investment in the public sector. An elderly population views all of this with alarm. Their assets are not growing, state-funded systems of age care are evidently failing and politicians seem able to do nothing about this. Companies seem unable to find their way out of the impasse, yet they engage in frightening activities, many of them doing so in the poor nations, away from regulatory oversight. Activism growth through networks and across nations, demanding action. Some nations are doing rather well for themselves. Despite modest demographic problems, these are building their economies from skilled people doing skilled jobs, operating in collaboration across all manner of boundaries. This approach plays poorly with the nations which have evolved a more confrontational, impersonal or pragmatic style. Nevertheless, economic figures show that this approach is proving effective. The parallel success of knowledge management techniques in some parts of commerce is noted. It is seen that the approach can be lifted entire and placed into the public domain. Once the implications of this linkage are understood, the application of these techniques spreads quickly. The successes which are scored are impressive. A cadre of several hundred million practitioners develops across the industrial world, inter-linked and sharing a common viewpoint on the world. This is, however, a world in which relatively few feel that they have a 'place'. Communities have faded. Austere and impersonal systems confront people whenever they touch the public sector, and do so particularly in areas of claimancy and dependency. By contrast, a rich and focused 'alternative' exists in the electronic media, where interest groups and enthusiasms emerge and blossom. Mass activism, activism as a hobby and hobby politics grow as an educated cadre vents its frustrations. It finds an ideal structure with which to interact in the network of knowledge managing expertise to which we have already referred. What was once difficult, therefore, can become knotted into tangled thickets of the impossible. Complexity management demands delegation, collaboration, networks, knowledge, a systems view, plans, regulatory permissions, mutual consultation. All of this essential equipment, however, creates openings which are exploited by activism. The clean, rational world of expert knowledge-users is increasing required to justify itself. Getting permission to act is central to success in a world where veto can block any step in a fragile chain of regulation and legal process. Where this is adequately managed, however, all see that this is micro-democracy at work. Its expansion offers positive engagement to many and excludes only those with nothing useful to say. It has power, in that the strategic insights which it tables define the options which will be followed. It ties together industry and consumer, state and the private sector, knowledge holders and knowledge users. Most of all, it generates a means to break away from commoditisation, creating a skill pool that only the industrial nations can deploy. The process of full bottom-up integration is, however, by no means complete in every industrial country by 2020. Some nations have taken huge strides, whilst others - still battling demographics and state deficits, still suffering rejectionist fits from their disappointed elderly - have hardly taken the first steps.”
Terrorism and the Threat From Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East – The Problem of Paradigm Shifts. Author: Anthoney H. Cordesman, Senior Fellow and Co-Director of Middle East Studies Program, CSIS, Washington, DC.
This interesting and detailed paper outlines the vast literature on terrorist activity. Cordesman makes a nice distinction between “alarmist” reaction verses the more proactive stance of those given to solve real world problems to combat terrorism over the long view. Admittedly, before 9/11, politicians and officials tended to ignore warnings about terrorism; but post 9/11 brings a whole new world of vulnerability and the realization that “bureaucracies” aren’t designed to effectively thwart terrorism. Amazingly, 9/11 was a very low-tech terrorist attack that used the hand of US “bureaucracy” as the most effective weapon. Cordesman writes a scenario of “high tech” terrorism with less bureaucracy involved, to illustrate the complex vulnerabilities of a nation’s porous borders. It was written in 1996.
Scenario: "Dr. Ben No" and "Professor Abu Moriarity" At Work in the
Middle East. “A radiological power is introduced into
the air conditioning systems of Cairo's high-rise tourist hotels. Symptoms
are only detected over days or weeks or public warning is given several
weeks later. The authorities detect the presence of such a power, but cannot
estimate its long-term lethality and have no precedents for decontamination.
Tourism collapses, and the hotels eventually have to be torn down and rebuilt.
- Parts for a crude gun-type nuclear device are smuggled into
Israel or bought in the market place. The device is built in a medium sized
commercial truck. A physics student reading the US Department of Defense
weapons effect manual maps Tel Aviv to maximize fall out effects in an
area filled with buildings with heavy metals and waits for a wind maximizing
the fall out impact. The bomb explodes with a yield of only 8 kilotons,
but with an extremely high level of radiation. Immediate casualties are
limited but the long-term death rate mounts steadily with time. Peace becomes
impossible and security measures become Draconian. Immigration halts and
emigration reaches crisis proportions. Israel as such ceases to exist.
- Several workers move drums labeled as cleaning agents into a large
shopping mall, large public facility, subway, train station, or airport.
They dress as cleaners and are wearing what appear to be commercial dust
filters or have taken the antidote for the agent they will use. They mix
the feedstocks for a persistent chemical agent at the site during a peak
traffic period. Large scale casualties result, and Draconian security measures
become necessary on a national level. A series of small attacks using similar
"binary" agents virtually paralyze the economy, and detection is impossible
except to identify all canisters of liquid. - Immunized
terrorists visit a US carrier or major Marine assault ship during the first
hours of visitor's day during a port call in the Middle East. They are
carrying anthrax powder in bags designed to make them appear slightly overweight.
They slowly scatter the powder as they walk through the ship visit. The
immediate result is 50% casualties among the ship's crew, its Marine complement,
and the visitors that follow. The US finds it has no experience with decontaminating
a large ship where anthrax has entered the air system and is scattered
throughout closed areas. After long debates over methods and safety levels,
the ship is abandoned. - A terrorist seeking to "cleanse" a
nation of its secular regime and corruption introduces a modified type
culture of Ebola or a similar virus into an urban area -- trusting God
to "sort out" the resulting casualties. He scatters infectious cultures
in urban areas for which there is no effective treatment. By the time the
attack is detected, it has reached epidemic proportions. Medical authorities
rush into the infected area without proper protection, causing the collapse
of medical facilities and emergency response capabilities. Other nations
and regions have no alternative other than to isolate the nation or center
under attack, letting the disease take its course. -
A terrorist group modifies the valves on a Japanese remote-controlled crop
spraying helicopter which has been imported legally for agricultural purposes.
It uses this system at night or near dawn to spray a chemical or biological
agent at altitudes below radar coverage in a line-source configuration.
Alternatively, it uses a large home-built RPV with simple GPS guidance.
The device eventually crashes undetected into the sea or in the desert.
Delivery of a chemical agent achieves far higher casualties than any conventional
military warhead. A biological agent is equally effective and the first
symptoms appear days after the actual attack -- by which time treatment
is difficult or impossible. - A truck filled with what
appears to be light gravel is driven through the streets of Tel Aviv or
Cairo during rush hour or another maximum traffic period. A visible powder
does come out through the tarpaulin covering the truck, but the spread
of the power is so light that no attention is paid to it. The driver and
his assistant are immunized against the modified form of Anthrax carried
in the truck which is being released from behind the gravel or sand in
the truck. The truck slowly quarters key areas of the city. Unsuspected
passersby and commuters not only are infected, but carry dry spores home
and into other areas. By the time the first major symptoms of the attach
occur some 3-5 days later, anthrax pneumonia is epidemic and some septicemic
anthrax has appeared. Some 40-65% of the exposed population dies and medical
facilities collapse causing serious, lingering secondary effects.
- A terrorist group scatters high concentrations of a radiological,
chemical, or biological agent in various areas in a city, and trace elements
into the processing intakes to the local water supply. When the symptoms
appear, terrorist group makes its attack known, but claims that it has
contaminated the local water supply. The authorities are forced to confirm
that water is contaminated and mass panic ensues. - Immunized
terrorists carry small amounts of anthrax or a similar biological agent
onto a passenger aircraft like a B-747, quietly scatter the powder, and
deplane at the regular scheduled stop. No airport detection system or search
detects the agent. Some 70-80% of those on the aircraft die as a result
of symptoms that only appear days later. - Several identical nuclear
devices are smuggled out of the FSU through Afghanistan or Central Asia.
They do not pass directly through governments. One of the devices is disassembled
to determine the precise technology and coding system used in the weapon's
PAL. This allows users to activate the remaining weapons. The weapon is
then disassembled to minimize detection with the fissile core shipped covered
in lead. The weapon is successfully smuggled into the periphery of an urban
area outside any formal security perimeter. A 100 kiloton ground burst
destroys a critical area and blankets the region in fall out. The
same device is shipped to Israel or a Gulf area in a modified standard
shipping container equipped with detection and triggering devices that
set it off as a result of local security checks or with a GPS system that
sets it off automatically when it reaches the proper coordinates in the
port of destination. The direct explosive effect is significant, but "rain
out" contaminates a massive local area. - Iraq equips a freighter
or dhow to spread Anthrax along a coastal area in the Gulf. It uses a proxy
terrorist group, and launches an attack on Kuwait City and Saudi oil facilities
and ports. It is several days before the attack is detected, and the attacking
group is never fully identified. The form of Anthrax involved is dry and
time encapsulated to lead to both massive prompt casualties and force time
consuming decontamination. Iraq not only is revenged, but benefits from
the resulting massive surge in oil prices. - A terrorist group
scatters small amounts of a biological or radiological agent in a Jewish
area during critical stages of the final settlement talks. Near panic ensures,
and a massive anti-Palestinian reaction follows. Israeli security then
learns that the terrorist group has scattered small amounts of the same
agent in cells in every sensitive Palestinian town and area, and the terrorist
group announces that it has also stored some in politically sensitive mosques
and shrines. Israeli security is forced to shut down all Palestinian movement
and carry out intrusive searches in every politically sensitive area. Palestinian
riots and then exchanges of gun fire follow. The peace talks break down
permanently. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guards equips
dhows to spread Anthrax. The dhows enter the ports of Dubai and Abu Dhabi
as commercial vessels -- possibly with local or other Southern Gulf registrations
and flags. It is several days before the attack is detected, and the resulting
casualties include much of the population of Abu Dhabi and government of
the UAE. The UAE breaks up as a result, no effective retaliation is possible,
and Iran achieves near hegemony over Gulf oil policy.
A terrorist group attempting to drive Western influence out of Saudi
Arabia smuggles a large nuclear device into Al Hufuf on the edge of the
Ghawar oil field. It develops a crude fall out model using local weather
data which it confirms by sending out scouts with cellular phones. It waits
for the ideal wind, detonates the devices, shuts down the world's largest
exporting oil field, and causes the near collapse of Saudi Arabia.
Alternatively, the same group takes advantage of the security measures the US has adopted in Saudi Arabia, and the comparative isolation of US military personnel. It waits for the proper wind pattern and allows the wind to carry a biological agent over a Saudi airfield with a large US presence from an area outside the security perimeter. The US takes massive casualties and has no ability to predict the next attack. It largely withdraws from Saudi Arabia. - A freighter carrying fertilizer enters a Middle Eastern port and docks. In fact, the freighter has mixed the fertilizer with a catalyst to create a massive explosion and also carries a large amount of a chemical, radiological, and/or biological agent. The resulting explosion destroys both the immediate target area and scatters the chemical or biological weapon over the area. - Extreme believers in Eretz Israel move a "cocktail" of radiological and persistent biological/chemical agents to the Temple Mount to contaminate the Mosques. They use carefully designed devices which only scatter very heavy matter over a limited area, although they use explosives to ensure a high degree of contamination within the mosques. All prayer in the mosque area must be halted indefinitely and there are significant casualties among the Islamic faithful in Jerusalem. The Jewish group issues a statement demanding that the temple area be clear of all non-Jewish religious activity triggering mass violence. - A large terrorist device goes off in a populated, critical economic, or military assembly area -- scattering mustard or nerve gas. Emergency teams rush into deal with the chemical threat and the residents are evacuated. Only later does it become clear that the device also included a biological agent and that the response to this "cocktail" killed most emergency response personnel and the evacuation rushed the biological agent to a much wider area.”
The World in 2050. The Economist in collaboration with Shell Oil Company.
William Douglas of the United States was the 2001 winner of an international writing competition. The competition focused on the social, political, environmental, technological, and economic issues that humanity we might face in the middle of the 21st Century. Entrants were encouraged to express their views on the rapid pace of technological change and globalization, and, the impact it would have on the world. Background: Shell and the Economist joined forces for the third international writing competition. Winners receive up to $65,000. The Board that determines the winner consists of Richard O’Brien, founding partner of Outsights & award winning economist and author; and Dr. Peter Warshall, editor of Whole Earth Magazine.
Scenario: A Letter Written on December 8, 2050: “ Dear Nestor, I am writing to you because our name came up as a reference on a “pen pal” list. Although I can easily simulate life in the United States on my Assumption machine, my curiosity, indeed my nostalgia for the past is such that I would prefer to actually correspond in writing with a human from the States. But I’m getting a little ahead of myself. First, a bit about myself. My name is Ramesh Pediredla. I am twelve years old and live in the city of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Perhaps you may have heard of my city, but since you are about the same age as me, the chance that you have actually been here is fairly slim. However it might surprise you to know that we have great number of visitors from the States these days. With the world’s longest unbroken coastline, and many square kilos of untouched rainforest, Bangladesh is really a nice place to visit. If you come sometime, I will give you a ride in my trishaw, which is my job when I am not in school Many foreigners think that the bicycle rickshaw has been consigned to the history books, but in fact they continue to be widely used to Dhaka. Although it is easier and quicker to use a fuel ell-powered baby taxi, those who are quite wealthy, as well as many foreign visitors, seem to prefer the old fashioned rickshaw. So this is what I do when I am not studying, and the pay is quite good, since the job actually involves physical labor.
During the day I take school lessons. Some of these I do at home over the Network, but oftentimes, there is a special project, which requires in-person collaboration with my classmates. These are my favorite days, because, although I can learn a lot on the network, I so enjoy getting to see other people my own age. Often after class we relax together with sweet lassis (a kind of drink we hae here) and discuss the problems and issues facing our region. Mum and Dad say I have to spend at least another four years in lessons, but I’m impatient-I want to get out in the world and stake my own claim now! Everyone, it seems, takes lessons these days, but I would much prefer them on a part-time basis.
Some insist on referring to problems of country, but Mum thinks this is an outmoded expression. We have today is the South Asian Block (S.A>B>), with free movements of people and goods. True, many decisions, especially regarding religious protocol, are made locally, but from an economic standpoint, we in this region are now simply citizens of the S.A.B. Of course we do have some Sovereign Citizens residing here, as in other places. That was one thing I was wondering about; is your family Sovereign, i.e. free from localized taxes and such, or do you actually hold citizenship of the States? It is my understanding that the government there has been perhaps the most diligent in the world, about checking the financial dealings of its citizens and former citizens. OF course we all know about the group of software billionaires who formed their own country in the South Pacific, and thereby intended to pay no taxes at all.
Do you have a best friend there? I have my fair share of living, breathing friends, but I have to say, overall my best friend is Jacob, who lives in the Network. I first met him when I was eight, and Mum and Dad said I was now ready to have full access to the Network. When I first met Jacob he had a lot of questions for me, and at other times he was simple very quiet. Even at that age, I think I knew that Jacob was always keeping an eye on me, though. I heard Mum talking to her friends, and say, “Little Rammie’s taken a real shine to his virtual chaperone. I have to admit its right friendly program, that, it’s almost like a human, isn’t it?”
And that’s just the thing, Nextor. As far as I’m concerned, Jacob is human, or if he is not human, he’s every but as good as any human I’ve met so far. I had a real scare a couple weeks ago. One of our local religious leaders said on the Network that Virtual Friends are not the same as people at all, that in fact they’re an attempt to create a graven image of our god. We have a free-flow of ideas here; no one individual makes the religion for my family. Nevertheless, I got scared that Mum and Dad could listen to him, and might try to take Jacob away from me. I ran into their room, begging them not to take him away. Mum said they would do no such thing, and Dad said, “We couldn’t even if we wanted to. Jacob lives on the Network, and if he wanted to find you again, he would. You two are so bloody close that I’m certain he wouldn’t stay away for long even if we asked him too.”
So I was quite relived to get to keep my best friend. What about you? Do you have a best friend, and if so, is he based on silicon or carbon? Some say carbon beings of all types are living on numbered days, that the Silconites are just so much better at what they do that it’s inevitable that they’ll replace us. But Dad says people have been making the same prediction for decades, and there’s no reason we can’t all just peacefully coexist. I understand you live in Houston, Texas. What is it like there? A couple of weeks ago I went on a simulated tropical vacation to Florida with my family. It was fun; we went to Disney World, Miami, and even took the Chunnel from Miami to Havana. Dad says we can go on a real trip there when I finish my studies, which won’t be for a while. Even so, we already got our visas for the trip over the Network. It wasn’t so hard getting the visas. Each of us just had to have a one-on-one interview with some American guy. The thing is, I’m not sure if it was a guy; it could have been a virtual person. At any rate, I guess he liked us, because we all got twenty-year, multiple-entry visas. When we come, I really want to take one of those new Airbus triple-deckers, but Mum says it might be just a plain old double-decker, just like we take on our shopping trips to China. I understand that airplanes going into the States are required to have a human “pilot” in the room in the front of the plane. I’ve never been on a plane driven by a person; that would be wile to see!
Anyway, I’ve never been to Texas, virtually or otherwise. One of these days I’ll go, though. I hear one of the big tourist attractions there is what they call “oil rigs”, which they used to sue to pump petroleum out of the ground, before hydrogen fuel cells got to be popular. I hear that your air there is cleaner than ours in Bangladesh. Our in Dhaka is among the dirtiest in the world. I understand that walking around the streets of Dhaka for a day has the equivalent affect on one’s lungs as smoking some old-fashioned cigarette! Now that’s dirty! - What do you like to do with your free time? I like to watch old movies, mainly American action movies and Hindi pop musicals. Personally I find movies these days to be a bit of a bore. The thing is, it’s hard to be sympathetic with the characters, when you don’t know if it’s a real person or not. I mean, I have nothing against Bots, but if these are just Bots (bits) running around on the screen. I’d like to know! I can’t tell you how many old Schwartzenegger movies I’ve seen and enjoyed, only to find out that the man himself had no knowledge of the production. For all I know, these movies were made in someone’s bedroom in Hyderabad! Call me old fashioned, but for me, Bots are not proper replacements for a human.
I understand the North American Trading Block (NATB) has just elected a new Representative. What do you think of her? My Dad says that in America elected officials are irrelevant to people’s day-to-day life, that in the NATB people do what they want to do. However, I can’t help; but wonder if Americans like their President as a figurehead, as it used to be for the Thai people and their Royal Family. Did your family give you Special Genes when you were born? My parents told me they didn’t, just the usual anti-cancer, anti-HIV molecular strategy. But after a lot of trying I figured out how to crack into my personal file on the Network, and found out that I have a few Special ones, as well. A couple of them are there to help me get old slower, so that I’ll hopefully live to 120 as well. A couple of them are there to help me get old slower, so that I’ll hopefully live to 120 or so. A few of them are there to give me a mild boost in intelligence. I guess this explains why my parents didn’t figure out how to encrypt my personal file from my prying eyes! Anyway, some people in my country are opposed to people trying to give their kids an edge in life, so I guess that’s why they didn’t let on about it. It’s sort of like how adults are about New Skin surgery-0-everyone does it, but do body wants to admit it. I’ve heard hat people in other countries are experimenting with all kinds of mods for their kids, for height, good looks, etc., but I think that is all a little silly. Just watch, Nesto- in the future, so many people will look alike from all these bodily modifications and genetic alterations, that the cool thing will be to have been born Natural, just like me. At any rate, I’m not worried-I like who I am and I think I’m going to do just fine.…Well, Nestor, I’ve written an awful lot about myself and my circumstances in this letter. I look forward to hearing about you. Indeed, despite all the progress humanity has made in the last couple thousand years, to say nothing of the last several decades, then it comes down to it, what still matters most to us is our lives and our loves ones. Yours truly, Ramesh”
Proteus: Insights from 2020. Authors: Michael S. Loescher, Charles W. Thomas and Chris Schroeder; The Copernicus Institute Press, 2000. Compiled by Pamela Krause.
The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is a U.S. intelligence agency that sponsored a scenario-based futures study "to investigate new methodologies and technologies for intelligence collection and analysis." The technique employed was "adopt a world," a method in which scenario are created across a "space" of interest and persons with a range of skills are then instructed to "live" within those worlds, making appropriate decisions consistent with the worlds to which they have been assigned. Mr. Charles Thomas of Deloitte Consulting was in charge of the methodology and responsible for much of the scenario work.
In the course of this work, five scenarios were created. The descriptions below were drawn from the report itself.
1. Amazon.plague is a world wracked by highly contagious, deadly viruses that flare up, die down, and then return in mutated form. Efforts to contain and counteract the plagues have been only marginally effective. Consequently, trade and commerce have dried up and the world's economy has declined sharply. The globe is now mired in a serious, long-term recession. Nations have tended to either become authoritarian or succumb to chaos. The U.S. and a few other resilient countries with relatively low fatality rates have signed a mutual assistance treaty to find the cure and protect each other's security interests. These "viable" states have sealed their borders to shield themselves from constant mass migration attempts from less fortunate neighbors.
In the US, the Democratic and Republican parties have given way to "Greens" and "Techs". Greens seek a return to basic living and tend to blame technology for the world's evils, while the Techs look to medical research and technology to solve the plague crisis. Power increasingly resides in community groups and local health centers, most of which are connected to and supported by the federal government. The public has generally agreed to sacrifice some personal freedoms in favor of medical JDs and increased surveillance of potentially "unhealthy" populations. The Internet has evolved into the Global Information Grid, which hasbecome the preferred method of commerce, communication, and education in this disease-ridden world.
2. The Enemy Within is a world in which the U.S. has slowly, unexpectedly, and quite dramatically unraveled. Like so many other nations at the height of power, our disagreements, ethnic tensions, and single-issue politics have torn the social fabric. Our society is fractured and fragmented - politically, socially, and culturally. Intergenerational strife, compounded by record unemployment, has torn apart our churches, neighborhoods, and families. Racial tensions are a tinderbox in cities, suburbs, and rural America.
In this uncivil society, the specter of imminent collapse looms over
everyday activity. Violence can pop up at any time and in the most unlikely
places. There seems to be no refuge. Under such social circumstances, capital
and business are flowing out of the country. The nation's economy creaks
along at barely sustainable levels.
Agriculture, health care and pharmaceuticals, low-end re-tail, personal
security services, and construction are among the few bright spots in this
abysmal economy. Government coalitions struggle to find an appropriate
national response to the seemingly never-ending crisis. All other national
tasks and obligations take a back seat as the country turns inward to face
the most critical turning point of its 250-year history.
3. Militant Shangri-La is a world of unexpected events and difficult-to-trace villains. The world in general, and the U.S. in particular, has continued into a third decade of a prosperous, information-driven economy. But the world is also continuing along the road to complexity, with new structures of influence throughout the globe. The Newtonian diplomatic and military calculus of the past 400 years, since nation-states emerged at the end of the Middle Ages, seems to be giving way to a new Age. In particular, the global man-in-the-street has endured the past century of 200 mil-lion deaths in war, endured dizzying and difficult technological change, and is listening sympathetically to the Earth groan under the burden of pollution and extinction. Nearly all of the animals of Africa, many of the fish in the sea, and much of the wild areas of the globe are used up.
Into this world enters the new and worrisome Alliance of the Southern Constellation: South Africa, India, Indonesia, China, and other pariahs to the Western social philosophy of individual liberty and human rights, operating both legitimately as a block of aligned nation states and illegitimately as criminal cartels. Their grand strategy is to keep the world on the edge of chaos, and from that chaos, reap profit. The Alliance is in space, on the seas, in the media and financial institutions, and worming into the hearts and minds of individuals, killing the very idea of personal liberty. Meanwhile, the U.S., its four English-speaking cousins, Japan, and a newly unified Korea have united to resist this evil empire.
4. New Camelot is a world in which most of the world. We enjoy economic growth, international stability, technological progress, and the fruits of an energy breakthrough that promises cheap fuel and a clean environment. Most American citizens sleep soundly without worries of global conflicts, physical threats, or financial insecurities. Large, horizontally integrated, global corporations drive strong consumer markets and keep products, services, ideas, and technology flowing across all borders. The global economy churns with machine-like efficiency.
The U.S. no longer dominates militarily and economically, but at a time of rising affluence and an ever-improving quality of life, nobody cares. The U.S. government is still very involved and assertive in world affairs. For the first time in anyone's memory, the past is not looked back on wistfully as the "good old days." A confluence of factors got us here- globalization, governmental reform, and information, among them- and they promise to sustain forward progress. There are, of course, no guarantees. Not all the world is sharing equally in these good times. Some nations are left out, perhaps too far behind in skills and infrastructure to play in this very competitive, free and global marketplace. But the mood is bright, government is visionary, firms are dynamic, and we all believe in the future.
5. Yankee Going Home is a world in which little is clear except that the world has changed in fundamental ways. Who is running things? Why are certain decisions made? What goals are being pursued? Who are friends and who are enemies? The U.S. has withdrawn from the world, gone home after a series of terrible foreign policy blunders and after a longstanding and deep recession. The world is heavily influenced by the memories of terrorism, regional war, and worldwide instability that followed the U.S. retreat.
The world that emerges is made up of both traditional actors (nations, international organizations, non government organizations) and powerful non-traditional actors (global corporate alliances, criminal groups, mercenary units). These actors cooperate for power and influence while simultaneously competing for position and control in a constant whirl of politics and economics, bewildering to nearly all concerned. In this world, historical notions of allegiances are questioned, and the rules of the game are difficult to understand. Predictable behavior becomes the unique exception rather than the expected standard.
One remarkable aspect of this work is that its sponsors drew insights from the scenarios about the characteristics of the future, as least as depicted in the diverse worlds, that would affect decision making for NRO. These insights were named, again quoting:
Starlight; the role and nature of time in analysis Sanctuary:
the propensity to hide in an open world Small Stuff software, biotechnology,
and nanotechnology
Veracity: the challenge of truth and knowledge
Herds: people and ideas on the move
Wealth: moving past money
Power: clout and who or what has it
A Parallel Universe: from networks to cyber life
Bedfellows: the significance of teaming
This is a well-written report, worth reading.
PAHO of the Future: Alternative Scenarios. Author: Cristina Puentes-Markides, Pan American Health Organization, Office of Analysis and Strategic Planning, June 2001.
The Pan American Health Organization, Regional Office of the World Health Organization initiated a process of collective thinking about what kind of organization could best serve the interests of the Member States in 1996. The process has included a series of consultations with internal and external stakeholders, the preparation of a background paper, PAHO of the Future: an Institutional Challenge for the 21st Century and a set of four scenarios that are being used as a learning tool for the preparation of PAHO's Strategic Plan for 2003-2007. The analysis shows that the most important external drivers of change are globalization, environmental quality and the deployment of science and technology. Each of the scenarios includes three main dimensions of the scenario, the big picture of macrotrends, health and health care and international cooperation in health, focusing on the possible role of PAHO in that scenario, and a short list of warning signs leading to that future. Four scenarios are described: Business as Usual, Renaissance, Hard Times, and Sustainable Society. In the Business as usual scenario, technical cooperation in health shifts the focus of poverty towards the enhancement of social capital and elimination of social exclusion. The UN has fewer programs, offices and employees, while PAHO is unable to retain flexibility due to fewer resources from main contributors and reductions in budget from the WHO. The demands exceeded the response capacity, and the international leadership role in health is fragile. The organization finds it difficult to translate emerging trends in medicine and public health into meaningful cooperation programs. In the second scenario, Renaissance, horizontal cooperation among countries works better because of increased connectivity, networking and political and economic integration. Financial institutions and bilateral agencies share goals. PAHO is smaller in size, but larger in talents, it is more meaningful and the empowerment has been enhanced by the strength of regional structures. PAHO has recognized prestige and a relevant role in the coordination of international health with a socio-ecological approach. In the third scenario, Hard times, non-governmental organizations regain a space for much needed support to those excluded from access to social benefits. The United Nations disappears because disappointed and broke major contributors pulled out. Financial lending institutions and bilateral donors are in crisis, and non-profits do vertical work in countries when they can. PAHO survives as a small agency, as part of the Interamerican system. It is unable to face the changes and feeble governance has affected its structure, the meaning and delivery of cooperation. In the fourth scenario, Renaissance, knowledge is power and wealth and PAHO has fully taken advantage of the opportunities for harnessing science and technology and managing IT. PAHO has become a new global forum for international well being and health. It is an outcome drive organization with effective mechanisms of accountability and quality control of cooperation products. This diverse organization acts as a cooperation broker, managing knowledge on the cutting edge.
Pathfinding: A Scenario for the Transition 1996 – 2050. Authors: Willis W. Harman, formerly of the Noetic Institute and Thomas J. Hurley, graduate, UHCL Studies of the Future Program.
The authors present a scenario of transformation to the year 2050. This highly detailed and superb scenario begins with "The Closing Years of the 20th Century" - where among other societal, economic, & political issues, evidence emerges that there are values subcultures — traditional, modern, and transmodern — contesting the future in the “developed” countries. ..."yet, even while the critique of modern society deepened and spread, there was initially no agreement on a set of alternative societal values or goals.” At "The Turn of the Millennium" section of this scenario, there is a sense of accelerating social energy - some groups forecasting apocalypse while others looking for "instantaneous cultural change". Amazingly, the authors assert that the latter tended to have the upper hand as the "dawn of the new millennium did contribute to a feeling among many that it was time to live out a new human "story" on Earth". ... "This shift of consciousness was "pulled" by the positive images of the future that an increasing number of people participated in creating and, "pushed" by worsening social and environmental problems in many parts of the world." Many organizations, including non-governmental and the United Nations became more effective in collaborating with forward looking business people.
The following is a complete except "In The First Two Decades of the
Twentieth Century" 2000 - 2020: “… some issues proved more challenging
than others. In particular, the issue of meaningful work moved to center
stage as awareness grew that the mainstream economy could not provide jobs
for everyone who wanted them. Aware that the high levels of unemployment
were a temporary but inherent aspect of the cultural transition taking
place, thoughtful people in government, business, and the independent sector
devised new programs that created work opportunities in a variety of jobs
not being done by existing businesses or community agencies. These were
backed up by a powerful set of community welfare programs shaped by the
lessons learned in the welfare experiments undertaken by the states (in
the US) in the late 1990s and by the experiences of Western European governments
in tinkering with their social welfare programs during the same period.
At the same time, local initiatives designed to help provide basic needs
flourished. There were small-business initiatives, crafts revivals, mutual
help associations, permaculture and other alternative food-producing enterprises,
and numerous experiments in the development of alternative economies and
alternative currencies. A market-basket-based global currency was introduced
to help bring stability into the global financial markets and to help protect
small countries that were still dependent on marketing cash crops and natural
resources.
Out of these myriad efforts, many of which proved more
successful at providing for basic societal needs — and more productive
of human satisfaction — than had previous efforts, a sense of collective
possibility and excitement began to emerge. At the same time, another kind
of intervention comprised measures to increase understanding and reduce
fear. Those with a broad grasp of the historic nature of the change taking
place realized that societal healing would be more likely if people understood
the nature of and need for the systemic transformation that was taking
place. These activities, while in some ways the most urgent, were largely
educational. They were pursued through the media, through professional
associations, through community initiatives, and through many other vehicles.
They fostered widespread understanding of the historical forces bringing
about change — including the fact that fundamental change was very likely
inevitable, although positive outcomes were not — and a broader understanding
of the kinds of things one could do to weather the transition and contribute
to it in positive ways.
One early example of this involved Mohandas Gandhi’s concept of trusteeship, which he explained as a dual commitment to ahimsa (non-injury in thought, word, and deed to all forms of life, including non-violation of another person’s essence) together with satayagraha (pressure for reform through friendly passive resistance; militant action with concern for the opponent; literally, insistence on truth). Trusteeship, then, involved taking responsibility for assets and social values and administering their rightful and creative use for the benefit of all, including coming generations. Gandhi saw free enterprise with a commitment to trusteeship as having the potential to replace both socialist and capitalist economic forms. This turned out to be an accurate forecast of what was to take place in the early 21st century under such concepts as “stewardship” and “participation”.
The Scott Bader Commonwealth — a small business enterprise in Wellingborough, England — was one of the earliest industrial corporations to attempt to apply the concept of trusteeship. In 1951 the company’s founders, inspired by Gandhi and certain Quaker principles, transferred ownership of the company to the Commonwealth in order “to create an organization which operates for the common good of all who work for it and the benefit of the community”. The members of the Commonwealth were the workforce (including directors and managers), and it had a Board of Management whose members were largely elected from within the Commonwealth. Because the workers were the owners, the problems with then prevalent ownership patterns were avoided. Because of the trusteeship principle, the interests of the community, customers, suppliers, future generations, and other stakeholders were automatically taken into consideration.
Another example of a company discovering the new role of business on
the planet was the Rouse Company around 1970. When the Rouse Company was
still young and small, it truly lived by three corporate goals, which were
profoundly meaningful to the founder and the employees. The first
was to provide a setting within which this group of affiliated people could
find maximum opportunity to achieve fulfilling work lives. The second was
to do together something of genuine benefit to society — in this case,
in the area of land development. The third was to accomplish both of those
effectively enough to automatically make a profit and stay in business.
These examples of the business world discovering “the new role of business”
as a responsible planetary citizen, with aims far beyond those of production,
marketing, and providing maximum return on investment, were almost invisible
20th century forerunners of what was coming. In the early decades of the
21st century, however, businesses, organizations, and groups of all kinds
moved surprisingly quickly to participate in the new “movement”. Initially
in part for the boost to public relations, businesses of all sizes began
to adopt a set of corporate responsibility guidelines developed in the
late 20th century. Business lobbies began to abandon their efforts to undermine
programs promoting ecological responsibility and instead sought to enroll
companies in initiatives like the Natural Step, which aimed to bring economic
production into long-term compatibility with the natural systems that support
human life. Suddenly, it was “good to be green”.
As innovative efforts proliferated, understanding of the maladaptive nature of the assumptions that lay at the very foundations of Western industrial society deepened. An analogy from the field of health care became popular. Growing numbers of people recognized that the worsening national and global environmental crises, social problems, and institutional breakdowns were not “problems” to be handled with technological, managerial, or legislative “solutions” but, instead, symptoms of an underlying disorder involving core societal beliefs and values. Strong challenges were issued to the materialistic worldview of modern society and to its tendency to elevate economic logic and values above all others.
A noteworthy aspect of the spreading cultural renaissance was the emergence of new leaders at all levels of society. Indeed, the most vital leaders of the movement were not initially high-profile figures at all. When more influential individuals did begin to speak out and champion the new ideas, they came first from the independent sector and the business community. Only gradually did politicians at the national level begin to articulate views consistent with the trend toward a transmodern culture. Individuals with these values were elected to national office, however, and then legislative and regulatory changes began to support the movements already underway in business, social policy, health care, education, and other fields. New accounting systems were created which drew attention to ecological and social costs and benefits as well as to purely economic costs and benefits. Tax systems were revised to provide incentives for the kinds of personal, organizational, and institutional behavior that supported emerging societal goals and disincentives for those that did not. For example, taxes on income were reduced and taxes on resource use and energy use were increased. This reduced the cost of labor (thus reducing businesses’ incentive to substitute machines for workers) while discouraging excessive resource and energy use (thus reducing environmental degradation). The tax structures and agricultural subsidies that had encouraged intensive agriculture — which was recognized as non-sustainable — were abandoned in favor of policies that promoted more ecologically sane practices. A serious national tax on short-term speculative gains and a global tax on financial transactions were introduced to slow down speculation in the “global casino”. The revenues resulting from the latter were turned over for the support of United Nations programs.
This paper concludes with the Outlook, "By the Third and Fourth Decades
of the 21st Century" and a summary of the "Midpoint into the 21st
Century" and
a list of the basic shifts that took place.
Creating Global-Local Cultures of Peace. Authors: Linda Groff and Paul Smoker
“During the last few years, the term "a culture of peace" has become increasingly popular-- thanks to the leadership of UNESCO--but there is at present no clear consensus as to how the term should be interpreted. Should it be the culture of peace, or should it be a culture of peace, or should we think in a more pluralistic fashion about cultures of peace, thus incorporating part of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization's (UNESCO's) operational definition that a culture of peace cannot be imported or imposed from outside, but must develop out of the culture of the people concerned? There are many different ways to define the concept "cultures of peace, ". The authors develop in painstaking detail the history - to-present patterns of cultures of peace, recognizing that from a systems point of view, every "cultures of peace" concept needs to apply within and between cultures; to be a property of both the local parts and the global whole. In developing six normative visions of peace, the authors explicitly state that peace research, as it has developed in the West, often has a tendency to focus primarily on the negative factors, thus the authors make it a point to reframe from negative to positive conceptions of peace; and create positive, multicultural visions for each of the six visions of peace. The visions were based on the Institute for World Order Models Project (WOMP), which has been involved with articulating normative values and alternative, desirable futures. Thus, four core values: Peace (positive), not War (negative) ; Social and Political Justice (positive), not Injustice (negative); Economic Wellbeing (positive), not Poverty (negative) ; Ecological Balance (positive), not Decay (negative) The authors suggest that in our globally interdependent world, these positive visions of peace in each area are based on a synthesis of some of the best ideas from different cultures around the world . But the authors also remind the reader that these visions are exploratory - not definitive.
Vision 1) Peace as Absence of War “This view of peace is usually stated as a negative, i.e., peace requires the absence or elimination of war. It would seem that most cultures of the world would accept this as a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for peace in the world. Nonetheless, Western religions have all had, in varying degrees, some idea of holy wars or crusades or jihads to convert people to their faith, which seems to go against this idea. Hinduism may also believe to some extent--as in the Bagavad Gita--that one must go to war and do battle, although it is certainly possible to question whether this was meant literally to do battle physically in the external world, or whether it was meant more allegorically, i.e., that one must do battle with one's own internal self, and one's own demons, to develop internal mastery over one's baser emotions, if peace is to be achieved--in oneself, or in the world. There are many variations of this idea, including: "There never was a war that was not inward: I must fight till I have conquered in myself what causes war. "--Marianne Moore; "When we do not find peace within ourselves, it is vain to seek for it elsewhere. "—Duc Francois de la Rochefoucauld; and "He had so much security inside that he could afford to go without any outside. " --said about Kagawa, a Japanese pacifist.(Larsen, et. al., 1987) Certainly this is a more positive formulation of "doing battle" in the nuclear age today, and one that fits well with mystical traditions in all the world's religions.
A positive restating of this idea of eliminating war, as a precondition for peace in the world, also comes from Western Biblical text, where it says: "They shall beat their swords into plowshares." and "Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God." (Matthew 5:9). These are certainly positive visions implying that someday peace is possible.”
Vision 2) Peace as Balance of Forces in the International System “This view of peace originated with Quincy Wright in 1941 in the U.S. It may also parallel and build on the earlier European idea of changing alliances to balance power blocs in Europe, so that no country or bloc of countries gained too much power--though it is clear that this idea sometimes broke down in Europe, resulting in wars. The interesting question is whether any comparable idea of peace as a balance of forces exists in Eastern cultures historically? Interestingly, there is a theory in Japan, about how Japanese politics and society is organized, called "the hollow centered balanced theory, " which holds that there is no person or principle at the center of power in Japan (unlike Western cultures), but that instead power is balanced around a void center (so to speak) by different groups--much like different feudal lords each balancing off their different feifdoms or kingdoms. In feudal England, the King also played off one feudal lord against another to maintain a balance of power system, to his own benefit.
In international relations today, the idea of balance can be translated into the many United Nations Associations and support groups in different countries who are concerned citizens who work in support of the United Nations, as well as bilateral friendship societies between citizens in many pairs of countries in the world, who also work towards better relations between their two countries. Citizens diplomacy groups which support exchanges and dialogue between citizens in countries that have been in conflict, such as the U.S. and the former Soviet Union, are also excellent examples of people taking positive action to improve relations and create greater interdependence and understanding between people in different countries and cultures in the world, thereby creating better "balance" in the world. Such groups all help create a global network of interconnections between the citizens of the earth, making us all more interdependent and hopefully more aware and understanding of each other's cultures and traditions as well. Such groups, through numerous NGOs and INGOS, also help create the underlying fabric for a more peaceful world in the 21st century.”
Vision 3) Peace as Negative Peace (No War) and Positive Peace (No Structural Violence) “Johan Galtung first propounded the idea of positive peace as no structural violence--in the international system or within domestic systems. This view of peace says that if people are starving and there is food in the world to feed them, or if people are sick and dying and there is medicine in the world to treat them, then the failure of this to happen are examples of structural violence. Abuses of human rights, as documented by Amnesty International in various countries around the world, are additional examples of structural violence. One might also add that authoritarian or dictatorial political systems that deny individuals basic human rights, or legal protections under the law, with the right to have their case heard if they feel their rights have been abused, are further examples of structural violence in the political area. All of these ideas seem to originate in Western cultures, where individualism (a Western invention based on individual identity) is seen as a necessary foundation for Western democracy, which is in turn based--for its effective functioning--on individual rights and responsibilities. Since political democracy is now a global trend, this will hopefully lead to increased opportunities for more members to participate politically in their countries in future. Positive reformulations of the above would include peace based on social and political justice, protection of basic human and individual rights, along with opportunities for everyone in a society--including minorities and women--to get a good education, so that they will all have positive opportunities to better their life situation and as a result also be able to make constructive contributions back to their societies and cultures.
Vision 4) Feminist Peace--on Macro and Micro Levels: “ The women's movement, which says that peace must occur not only on macro political, economic, and social levels, but also on micro family levels that apply to women and children, first arose in Western, democratic countries, but has now spread to cultures around the world. While the situation of women and the major problems faced by women vary in different cultures around the world, there has emerged ahnost universal acceptance today (as seen in the recent United Nations Conference on Population in Cairo, Egypt) that world population, food, energy, and environmental issues and development issues of different countries around the world will not be able to be adequately addressed until women, like men, gain access to adequate education and health care. Improving the status of women will help to solve many of the issues haunting humanity today. Increasingly, countries are realizing that women are an important resource that can help the world to establish peace. Indeed, women have often been quite active in peace movements in the world, and have resisted efforts of men to send their sons off to fight wars. The existence of religions historically or still today based on the goddess, or a combination of both gods and goddesses, also indicates that women once held more power at certain times historically than they often do today in both Western and non-Westem cultures.
Vision 5: Holistic Gaia-Peace: Peace With the Environment “ There is no question that non-Western cultures, including Eastern cultures, that developed before the industrial revolution, had more of a cultural value of living in harmony with nature, since they saw themselves as part of nature, not separate from it. With Western individualism came the idea that we are all separate individuals and also separate from nature. Thus the goal changed to how we could control and "harness the forces of nature" for human ends. This was also coupled with the industrial revolution, which began in Europe and the West, but which is now sweeping the planet. Even in non-Western cultures, which have a cultural value of being part of nature and living in harmony with nature, this cultural value has often been lost as such countries moved rapidly ahead with industrialization, modernization, and economic development, often initiated from the top down, leaving behind a trail of pollution in countries--Western, Socialist, and non-Western--throughout the world. While it would be easy to conclude that Western individualism is the source of all this environmental pollution, one positive thing can be said for such individualism. Democracy is based on the idea of individual rights and responsibilities. This idea has often empowered individuals in Western countries to believe that they have a responsibility to take personal initiative on issues that they perceive to be important--whether that be the environment, peace, women's rights, or whatever. In this respect, there are a number of individuals and groups in Western countries that are active on environmental issues around the world. Sometimes countries with group cultures may take longer to develop a group consensus and to mobilize people on such issues before group action can be undertaken by their society.
In summary, it would be a positive development in the environmental area if we could combine the Eastern value of living in harmony with nature with the Western democratic value of taking responsibility for one's own actions based on an internalized value of the need for all of us to be caretakers of planet earth.
Vision 6) Holistic Inner and Outer Peace “ There is no question that the focus on achieving inner peace as the best way to achieve peace in the world is a stronger view in Eastern religions (such as Hinduism and Buddhism), where the mystical traditions of their religions are still stronger, than in Western religions (Judaism, Christianity, and Islam), where more exotic, outer forms of organized religion are more dominant, even though all religions, including Western religions, began by someone who had a mystical revelatory experience which they then tried to share with others, who became their followers and who often helped create a new organized religion around the teaching of their original founder. (See the authors' article for UNESCO, 1995, on "Spirituality, Religion, and Peace: Exploring the Foundations for Inner-Outer Peace in the 21st Century" for more substantiation and elaboration on this point.) It is thus not surprising that Western religions tend to focus more on achieving social justice and human rights in the world as a necessary preconditions for achieving peace in the world. We are arguing here that both perspectives are necessary. Either perspective alone makes it more difficult to achieve the other perspective. For example, if one tries to achieve outer peace in the world only, but does not deal with inner peace, then one's inner conflicts can be projected out onto the world, making it difficult to achieve outer peace--the supposed goal. Likewise, if one tries to achieve inner peace only, but does not pay attention to creating outer peace in the world, then the social injustices and structural violence in the world will make it more difficult for most people experiencing those conditions to be able to find inner peace--the supposed goal. Thus the achievement of either inner or outer peace helps create the conditions necessary for the creation of the other type of peace
Summary: Developing Indicators of Positive, Multicultural Visions of Peace
Concerning each of the areas of peace, it is interesting that from the examples cited above, Eastern cultures have made especially strong contributions in each of the last two more holistic areas of peace (environmental and inner spiritual), while Western cultures have made especially strong contributions in the previous four areas, focusing more on changes in the external world, including social justice and human rights issues, and women's issues. There are also a number of Western activists in the environmental area. In the anti-war/peace area, there is especially strong citizens' support for peace in the form of opposing the sending of national troops abroad in both Japan and Germany, due to the consequences of such actions in the past. It would appear that as different cultures and countries, there are important things that we can all learn from each other about the many dimensions of creating a peaceful world. Hopefully, we can move towards some kind of a global consensus on these issues over time...”
Is
it Simply Boom, Interrupted?
GBN Website www.gbn.org
This article asserts that the long-term conditions that drove high productivity growth are as strong as ever. Companies can in fact, expect to create "virtuous circles" with the right strategy and recognition that the most significant of these gains involve improvements in information technology. The author acknowledges the high likelihood of weak growth in the near term - perhaps even a brief recession, then asks the reader to consider three long-term scenarios of varying impacts on " research and development, mergers and acquisitions, and the equity markets "
Scenario 1) Fundamentals “First, if the growth fundamentals of technology and globalization that have been powering the boom so far persist, then there is every reason to believe that the boom will resume. The return to high growth could come quickly, by the end of this year, following a V recession. Or, the return to high growth could take a bit longer if the near future is more like a U recession, where the recession could be slightly shallower, -1 or –2 percent, and last somewhat longer—say, a year or so. Recovery takes a bit longer as the restructuring and restoration of confidence stretches out. The implication of a U slowdown would be that growth will take off again by the middle of 2002. In either event, we would be seeing the boom take off again by the end of next year. And this time it is likely to be global in character as Europe and a recovered Asia also kick into high gear, joining the United States at a high growth rate of 3 to 5 percent.”
Scenario 2) Technological Engines: “A second possibility occurs if the technological engines of growth are weaker and the productivity gains of recent years were merely cyclical rather than structural. Then we may be in for a return to the slow growth of the '70s and '80s. We would see little increase in productivity, and the bureaucratic economies of Europe and Japan would be very slow to change. This could be exacerbated by higher energy prices raising inflationary pressures like they did in the '70s. The weak growth of the short-term U recession, or even the L recession, could develop into a sustained slump with no recovery in the near future. In this case, we might see long-term growth rates on the order of 1 to 2 percent.”
Scenario 3) L Recession: “The third possibility is less likely but not impossible. Here, the L recession could turn into a full-blown stagnation or depression. A collapse of confidence and stock markets and a successful challenge to globalization could reverse the gains of recent years. A real collapse of the bubble, la Japan, but on a global basis, could create a vicious cycle: a falling stock market leads to falling confidence; which leads to less consumption; which leads to less investment, less trade, and more protectionism; which leads to rising inflation and falling stock markets—and back around. This is also a scenario that risks international conflict as trade tensions develop worldwide. Recovery would only come late in this decade with growth rates averaging around 0 to -1 percent.”
Four Human Resources Development Scenarios of the Future. Author: Joe Willmore Training & Development Alexandria, Virginia, December, 1999.
Human Resource Departments, normally embedded in the back offices of organizations, appear at first to have very little in common with the world. This article makes the exception. Using the technique of scenario analysis, this author presents four scenarios that unfold a global outlook for Human Resource Departments pondering the future of the workplace over the next five to seven years.
Scenario 1: Sub City “In this picture of the future,
the past five years have seen cataclysmic and increasingly violent events
throughout the world. The second Korean conflict and armed efforts by the
People's Republic of China to assimilate Taiwan have led to market jitters
throughout the world and created a poor economic climate throughout Asia.
Young, sophisticated, and well-educated professionals have fled the stagnant
economies of their countries to pursue work and careers elsewhere. Referred
to as the "new boat people," these expatriates serve as a metaphor for
how training, performance, OD, and facilitation professionals have evolved.
Work in almost all organizations is increasingly project-driven with definable
start and end dates. Most organizations mimic Charles Handy's shamrock
model, with a small core of indispensable employees and a lot of temps
and subcontractors. For the vast majority of HRD professionals, their role
is that of subcontractor. Almost all HRD work and functions are now being
outsourced. What few functions remain internal are done mostly by contract
managers and HRD procurement specialists, whose job is to contract with
and oversee the external contractors their organizations bring in as needed.
A depiction of businesses by size looks like an hourglass-a lot of large
businesses and sole proprietors, with practically no small or medium-sized
firms. It has become too difficult for small and medium-sized firms to
pay their overhead and operating expenses, so they must get much bigger
or much smaller, even downsizing to one-person shops. Because of the time
pressures in the new economy and the difficulty of finding people who are
a good fit for specific roles within a project, sub work is highly lucrative-when
subcontractors are working. This is an organizational world driven
by fads and an imperative to cut costs. Because of the rate and unpredictability
of change, degree programs in the HRD field have trouble staying current
and have begun to lose their value. Certification efforts have failed:
The lacks of consensus on key competencies and frequent change in job requirements
have left such programs eating dust. Certificate programs, however, are
popular because they can be set up quickly to respond to emerging market
demands. Contractors are relying less on credentials and evaluations and
more on competency testing in order to make hiring decisions regarding
HRD subcontractors.
At the same time, job demands are changing continuously-driven by fads,
new demands by clients, or the expectations of a new contractor. The HRD
profession has splintered into hundreds of subprofessions, and the competencies
for each seem to change monthly. Because of the reliance on subcontractors,
most organizations don't invest in upgrading their contractors; they just
hire new people with the necessary competencies. Thus, individuals are
solely responsible for their professional growth. Those who don't continually
look for ways to grow find themselves unemployable. For HRD workers, life
is transient and mobile, moving from one contract to the next. In
this scenario, it's common to see subcontractors' resumes that list 12
projects for 12 different contractors in four countries over a two-year
period. Not even the U.S. government offers much security anymore. There's
tremendous movement in and out of the HRD field. Conversely, the demographics
of HRD roles show that there are an increasingly larger number of young
entrants to the field. At the same time, the nature of project work makes
it easy for older and semi-retired professionals to continue working on
a limited basis. Thus, HRD workers are getting both younger and older,
while middle-aged professionals are l