23 July 1999
On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University and The Foundation for the Future, we have the honor to invite you to participate on the "Millennium 3000 Panel."
You have been nominated by your peers, or identified through Internet searches, and/or literature reviews for being unusually perceptive about the possibilities for the long-range 1000 year future of humanity. Some factors that will help determine the next 10 - 30 years will be ancient history in 1000 years. This study is not looking at the more traditional futures issues that rarely go beyond 25 to 100 years; instead, you are asked to consider what may affect the next 1000 years.
The panel will focus on the linkage between foreseeable factors and the long-term future of humanity via a two-round questionnaire. The enclosed first round is intended to collect judgements about of factors that may influence the course of humanity over the next 1000 years. You will be asked to rate the importance of several suggested factors and the degree to which they can be affected by human intervention such as policy and funding. You will also be asked to identify benchmarks (100, 500, and 1000 years), potential "unexpected" consequences, trajectories, and what may alter the trajectories for these factors.
No attributions will be made without permission, but your name will be listed as a participant. It is not required that you address all the factors or answer all the questions. The list of factors has been created by a distillation of questionnaire results from the Foundation for the Future’s first Humanity 3000 Seminar and from previous research by the Millennium Project. You may suggest additional factors.
The second round will summarize the results of the first round, and include short scenarios to the year 3000 constructed from this information. Your reassessment of the factors in light of others’ views and comments on the scenarios will be sought in the second and final round.
Please return the enclosed questionnaire by September 1, 1999 via email. Faxes of hand written or typed responses can be misunderstood or mis-entered. Please contact us with any questions. We look forward to including your views.
Sincerely yours,
Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon
Co-directors, AC/UNU Millennium Project
Please use the following scale to rate how plausible it is that the factor will influence the human condition 1000 years from today.
5 = Absolutely certain in the next 1000 years
4 = Almost certain
3 = Reasonably plausible
2 = Maybe
1 = Unlikely, almost impossible even on a 1000 year time scale
Assuming that the factor does occur, please use the following scale to rate the importance of its effect on the human condition 1000 years from today. An important factor is defined as deeply affecting the human condition as-a-whole.
5 = Of overwhelming importance
4 = Very important
3 = Important
2 = Modist importance
1 = Relatively unimportant or trivial
Use the following scale to rate the ability of human intervention such as policy and/or funding to affect that factor’s trajectory:
5 = Has the potential to change the outcome of the factor entirely
4 = Could have a major effect
3 = Could have a significant effect
2 = Could have a minor effect
1 = No effect
After rating the factor, please provide further details of your views on the factor’s likely trajectory, benchmarks of its development, and some possible unexpected or low probability consequences. Since you will be doing this on your computer and sending it via email, you are welcome to make the text as short or as long as you want, but have pity on the study team. Suggested length is one to two sentences per question with references or electronic attachments as relevant. You are welcome to suggest additional factors.
Please email your responses by September 1, 1999 to jglenn@igc.org with copies to acunu@igc.org and theogordon@compuserve.com.
All those who respond will receive a copy of the final results.
Please check which best describes your primary profession:
/__/ Futures Research, Futures Studies, Prospective
/__/ Natural Science
/__/ Social Science
/__/ Engineering
/__/ Medicine
/__/ Art
/__/ Science Fiction
/__/ Humanities
/__/ Military affairs
/__/ Governance
/__/ Other _________________________
FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT HUMANITY OVER THE NEXT 1000 YEARS:
1. Ability to avoid impacts of abrupt climate change - what has, every several thousand years in the past, devastated ecosystems within a decade on a worldwide scale.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
2. Occurrence of major climate changes - such as global warming - over longer periods of time than one decade as in the first factor.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
3. Evolving human-environment dynamics, including the complex interactions among population, resources, and other aspects of civilization.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
4. Availability of abundant safe energy.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
5. Development and use of nanotechnology (molecular manufacturing by placing atoms and molecules with precise control).
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
6. Appropriate forms of governance that promote, for example, social equity, coherence, order, and peace and prevent conflict, disorder, poverty, ignorance, terrorism, and war, with enforceable protocols for beneficial relations among groups and between humanity and its environment.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
7. Control over the forces that have the ability to destroy Humanity.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
8. Emergence of philosophy that provides mental maps of reality, epistemology, and symbol systems that help humanity behave in accordance with common ideals.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
9. Emergence of comprehensive and shared visions of the collective future.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
10. A global ethical system of values and principles generally accepted.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
11. Use of human genetic engineering to control disease, aging, and human characteristics
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
12. Conscious-Technology; the confluence and synergies in artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, bionics, materials science, genetic engineering, and telecommunications that lead to new types of technologically augmented human beings who compose a continuum of technology and consciousness.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
13. Increasing Intelligence; both individually and collectively that allows people to deal with unexpected problems.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
14 Conscious Evolution; the conscious attempt to evolve civilization and human consciousness as-a-whole from self-centered to a more spiritual holistic-centered consciousness.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
15. Effective immortality for those who wish it: people choose the time at which to end their lives.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
16. Family and gender relationships; including equity, parenting, and other cultural roles.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
17. Extraterrestrial contact and intelligent communications of a scientific and educational nature.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
18. Space migration of sufficient numbers of people to form autonomous, independent communities off the earth.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
19. Interspecies communications; with substantive
exchanges.
Probability /__/ Importance /___/ Human Intervention (policy/funding)
Priority /__/
What is the foreseeable trajectory for this factor and what might alter
it?
What are key benchmarks (positive and/or negative) for this factor over
the next 100, 500, and 1000 years?
What important low probability consequences should be considered?
ADDITIONAL FACTORS:
Thank you for your participation. Please email your responses by September
1, 1999 to jglenn@igc.org with copies
to acunu@igc.org and theogordon@compuserve.com.
You will receive the results as part of Round 2 within about two months.
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