180 positive developments (listed in Appendix B of the report) were identified, rated, and grouped into the following 15 global opportunities:

1. Achieving sustainable development
2. Increasing acceptance of long-term perspectives in policy making
3. Expanding potential for scientific and technological breakthroughs
4. Transforming authoritarian regimes to democracies
5. Encouraging diversity and shared ethical values
6. Reducing the rate of population growth
7. Emerging strategies for world peace and security
8. Developing alternative sources of energy
9. Globalizing the convergence of information and communications technologies
10. Increasing advances in biotechnology
11. Encouraging economic development through ethical market economy
12. Increasing economic autonomy of Women and other groups
13. Promoting the inquiry into new and sometimes counter intuitive ideas
14. Pursuing promising space projects
15. Improving institutions
 

1. Achieving sustainable development

Never before has world opinion been so united on a single goal as it is on achieving sustainable development. Environmental consciousness is pervasive; the concept of sustainability has affected politics and national decision-making everywhere; and the Kyoto Summit on Climate Change has intensified these views. Concepts like industrial ecology, ecological engineering, nature-oriented technology, and zero emissions research are rapidly becoming accepted.

International cooperation among ecological research centers with standardized data protocols and integration of global environmental research and satellite data are making it possible to model and monitor the earth-as-a-whole. Ecological conditions have improved where vigorous environmental protection programs have been implemented. There is an unprecedented opportunity to galvanize global opinion into actions.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

Never before has the world been as aware of a common threat to humanity as the unsustainability of present patterns of resource use and development... SD represents the third "global revolution" (after agricultural and industrial revolution) and it is a process for at least several decades and it is necessary "to keep direction"… It will occur in due course (although not without effort); it will represent a triumph of the human spirit (in much the same way as the avoidance of nuclear war). It is inevitable… Although the world may agree on the general goal of sustainable development (S-D), the Kyoto conference on Climate Change showed a fundamental split between the First and Third Worlds on implementation.

The Third World argues that the First has already developed to a plateau that will allow them to cutback on emissions and that in their development process they have already contributed the majority of greenhouse gasses. The Third World has not yet reached that plateau of development.  Limits on emissions during the early development process have a different economic impact than limits during the more mature development plateau. Limits can be equally applied when nations have equal development. Limits help insure First World's stability but can prevent the Third World's growth. But a deal can be made.  The Third Word wants insurance that they will have the technology (through technology cooperation, loans, and grants) to achieve cleaner economic growth, then they will agree to limits... Japan offers the lowest possible interest rates for "green" technology projects.  USAID has proposed $10 billion in anti-greenhouse activities, others will come.

Common recognition of sustainable development as the top goal has been reached only among governmental sectors, administrative leaders and intellectuals... Although the term "sustainable development" (popularized by the Brundtland Commission in its 1987 report, Our Common Future), focused on environmental sustainability, the concept really has four interdependent and necessary elements: financial, economic, environmental, and social. The actions listed below in this section did not acknowledge the other three... SD is "not just environment, but also development" in developing regions etc. The description should reflect aspects of economy, sociology and some geopolitical views (geopolitical regions)…. Sustainability has three components: livability, employment, and social cohesion, whereas local authorities consider it means: water, sewerage, and power. Planning is a 20-year cycle and politics a 2-5 year one; sustainable development tends to fall between the two.

There are two main inaccuracies in the way the concept of sustainable development is addressed today: 1) It is one-side oriented, only taking into consideration the human influence on the ecosystem,  when in reality, it is an active  inter-relationship between the two - and 2) misapprehension of sustainable development as a development without crises, disregarding the cyclic dynamic of the social-environmental evolution, which  history proved, inevitably includes crises.  It is an effective relationship between the technological, economical, social and ecological crises.

After the Amazonian rain forest, the Congo basin will be the next focus for such trade-offs to be considered... Sustainable development answers the needs of the present generation without hindering the development of future generations.  International strategy for sustainable development is hampered by institutional and contractual problems related to international law, social structures, and jurisdictional difficulties within the UN system. The EU has made great advances by recognizing Agenda 21 and introducing sustainability policies in transportation, agriculture, energy, tourism, and industry. Italy has introduced occupational and economic benefits through the development of technological innovation and environmental policies such as the destruction of cars older than 10 years, recycling (paper, glass, and plastics, and protecting Natural Parks)... Anhui Province, in China, has reforested the entire province in 8 years. It closed 475 enterprises that seriously polluted the Hui River in 1996. By the end of 1997, 229 of these had completed their pollution control, 49 were still constructing pollution control facilities, and 30 were permanently closed or switched to a new industry... This is only a scientific-technological approach, missing the political, philosophical, and axiological one. It is necessary to include the change of political patterns and economic indicators, and the values related to the sustainable living and the acceptation of conclusions of the Dobjiš Conference /1991/ and Dobjiš Assessment - Dobjiš Conference was the basic impulse for sustainable development, but was forgotten.

When corporations' stock price is affected by their impact on the environment, then you will see corporations change more dramatically. If corporations were listed high or low for their exposure to environmental liabilities, then stock prices could be affected... Sustainable Development and Ethical Finance and Capitalism are interlocked as one issue. This interlinkage is extremely relevant in today's business world…. Include agriculture, nutritional sustainability, food security.  Greed makes it unsustainable in developed countries and poverty makes it so in developing countries…. SD is not priority on national political agenda, countries have their particular interests…. Only a small part of the society is focusing on sustainable development. In the Third World countries and also in postcommunist countries, sustainable development is of peripheral interest. Concepts such as industrial ecology, ecological engineering, nature-oriented technology and zero emissions research are ignored. There are no research institutions oriented on these concepts, the governments and the managers, the enterprises, have no interest in it.

Sustainability is a real goal and one that is attainable, but there's a long way to go to accomplish it. Latin America is doing much better than in the past as their population growth has come under control and they have managed to create linkages to their own resource base... The prevailing attitude is one of trying to find external solutions, rather than changing one's way of living... Global eco-crises take place when the rhythm of population growth is faster than the dynamic of production. In its effort to satisfy the growing needs of population, the technology develops uncontrolled, at the expense of the environment.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

About half the actions suggested below repeat and hence reinforce those covered in Agenda 21. (They are: 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, 1.11, 1.13, 1.14, 1.15, 1.16, 1.17, 1.19, 1.25, and the second part of 1.5.) The new suggestions can be thought of as being complementary to Agenda 21. Additionally, this section adds to the sustainable development discussions a distilled range of thinking that can help identify areas of agreement for action...

1.1 Further develop models and simulations to forecast potential environmental "hot spots".

This should be developed by the UN Office for Sustainable Development in cooperation with UNEP and results should be reported to the UN General Assembly...The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is doing this. [NASA's Mission to Planet Earth, now called Earth Science, is integrating satellite data with earth-based data to create global models for monitoring changes.]... Yes, but once we get the top 8 or 10 hot spots, we have to get together on the actions and set priorities.

Forecasts are the starting point of sustainable development, but we should not forecast only " hot spots". We should develop complex forecasts that take in consideration the nature and the cycle of "hot spots" and have a picture of the future as a whole and point out the "hot spots" as these are manifestations of eco-crises…. The most significant area in which sustainability is and will remain a problem is the health care sector. Quality health care is essentially becoming a human right all over the world... In developing countries, the national environmental units should act after initiation by regional political and substantive organizations... Use different term than "hot spots."  "What if" statements leading to scenarios have more powerful influences on decisions than models.

Developing processes to solve problems is more important than creating models…. Shortage of good science, and
accessibility to data prevents its achievement. Environment is also too complex for this.

This action should be linked with forecasts and programs for development. We need goals that are international and national, long and medium- range with special mechanisms for their development and implementation...  World society should think about Earth as a global ecosystem. The countries that might be defined as "hot spots" do not have financial resources for harmonious development. We need international foundations. Not only temporary international foundations to solve temporary/partial problems, but a system of international foundations for early warning and implementation of global, trans-national eco-policies...

1.2 Create (via UNEP, ICSU, and possibly WTO) international scientific boards to define terms, standards, and measurements necessary for commonly applied environmental policies such as tax incentives, labels, and others listed below. Begin with the easiest standards such as protection of resources like forests and fisheries, and replacement of depleted stocks.

This is critical for real collaboration... Use teleconferences, or Internet…. Since the use of labels for products is effective, it is essential to work out common international criteria…. Maybe IPCC can do this, but it will be hard to get global agreement. We should also define the economic value of watersheds, forests, etc…. WTO should create and enforce environmental standards in trade. Developing countries will see this as a new form of protectionism. UNEP should do the research but would need a new treaty to have enforcement powers.  In the meantime, WTO is the only potential leader to enforce results of such research...Theoretically it is a good action, but in practice, the standards that are acceptable for USA or Germany are not acceptable for Russia, China or Latin American countries. It is not possible to change the technological base in these countries immediately...

1.3 Include sanctions and enforcement mechanisms and procedures with any environmental policy recommendation; e.g. the Framework Convention on Climate Change should include ways to punish offenders.

This is on the agenda of the next Climate Change conference…. The UN Office of Sustainable Development working with the Secretary General of the UN can create treaties with enforcement powers that recognized both the poorer and richer regions' interests... ECOSOC should lead the policy for socially binding sanctions...The sanctions should be commensurable with compensation for harm. These sanctions should be based on the information of international ecosystem scanning not regulated by countries... The funds raised from sanctions should be transferred to the international foundations to finance environmental programs…. International law is a mix of politics and rules - even the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is only enforced through appeals to the UN Security Council. It is better to have agreed terms without enforcement powers than to have no agreement.

Fines are the only way to punish offenders. Sanctions against a whole country could be counter productive and punish peoples' development. The Ozone treaty worked pretty well, but there is a black market in CFC's…. Enforcement mechanisms in the WTO and other UN organizations are necessary…. Governments could deny political insurance (OPIC in the US) for businesses in their country working in another country on environmentally unsound projects…. Create positive collaboration and incentives to create a new way of doing business…. Third world engagement is missing…. It is not workable in developing countries that are struggling to generate enough food and jobs.

1.4 Spread ISO 14000 to more countries.

 ISO 14000 is a quality control and performance-tracking mechanism.  Inherently, ISO 14001 is a certification of good management, not of environmental stewardship or sustainability.  ISO 14000's success will depend greatly on how good the underlying EMS goals - established independently by each participating corporation - are.  ISO 14000 has great potential if companies can be motivated to orient their EMS goals by scientifically established international, national, regional, and local priorities.

Procedures and methods should be developed to: a) establish such sustainability priorities through scientifically advised, participatory decision-making; b) translate priorities into EMS goals; and c) report and aggregate EMS achievements as a component of community sustainability indicators. Add to ISO 14000 the initiative of the implementation of ecologically sound production or sustainable business frameworks (such as The Natural Step) and the Business Charter for Sustainable Development of the International Chamber of Commerce (<http://www.iccwbo.org/Cust/html/The%20Business%20Charter.htm>). Such frameworks may be seen as complementary to ISO 14000 and also can be implemented instead of ISO 14000. They are non-exclusive, and since all of these are voluntary and quite flexible, their degree of success in each case depends much more on the sincerity and commitment of the adopting enterprise than on specific content and formulation of the framework. ISO 14000 certainly is the most formalistic of these instruments, but what counts the most in the end is the extent to which management and the work force adopt the spirit of the plan and live by it.
ISO 14000 is fully voluntary now. But for those companies that adopt it, it can save money...Ecological standards should not be common for all, but adapted to countries' conditions... Link to international assistance and relations. Regional banks (ADB in Africa, etc. could do the training but would need political leadership of the OAU.)...This is a good way to track your progress and current situation, but not a good way into the future... Motorola in Scotland realized a cost saving of 2 million per year when they adopted the standard…. Good, but can become also instrument of trade discrimination…. Very important, has autocatalytic effect.

1.5 Initiate tariffs and/or taxes on polluting products or technologies, with revenues collected to be used to subsidize the acquisition of environmentally safe technologies; provide incentives for environmentally sound technologies, goods, and equipment.

This will require an international umpire like UNEP and WTO...NGOs will have to lobby governments to create this via trade agreements...Yes, you have to create the punitive actions to generate the income for the incentives. Governments and corporations should pool money to give grants to create more environmentally friendly products... We should tax resource usage and not incomes. There should be different rates for different energy sources. Full cost accounting should become the norm. It is stupid for government to subsidize tobacco, a single-use plant which has a high impact on the environment and pay for cancer research and treatment, while banning hemp, a multi-use plant with a low impact on the environment...Some preferential measures on tariffs ought to be worked out for developing countries…. It is occurring to some degree now…. There are limited possibilities internationally…. Expensive, developed countries should take the lead.

1.6 Establish a system of national accounts that includes the economic impact of the depletion of natural resources.

This is very important, but resources economy and environmental economy are not yet fully understood by the public…. The system of national accounts, which is adopted by about 50 countries today, does not reflect the ecological domain.  We should estimate the ecological problems, the resources engaged to solve them and estimate the results….
A USGS report tried to establish the quantitative basis for such a system. .... World Bank and the regional development banks that currently train governments in environmental impact assessment could add this element...In Africa, this will require OAU leadership to give mandates to regional organizations like UNECA and ADB for technical assistance and training.

1.7 Encourage the placement of labels on all consumer products providing information that indicates whether the product has been produced in a sustainable manner.

Should be done with leadership from the government environmental agency... Add communications plan to make sure the public understand the labels... With full information people can make better decisions... This is trivial but OK…. It would be too expensive and bureaucratic to label all consumer products, instead encourage voluntary labeling…. Companies should create their own labels, like printing "recycled paper" to promote themselves rather than wait for government to impose labels... Swiss Air promotes its food as being produced by environmentally sound agricultural practices.

1.8 Increase R&D budgets for projects related to sustainable development, possibly with mandated fund contributions by all countries.

Why just governments? Make it a world philanthropic organization that also includes corporate contributions…. This foundation might be funded by government contributions calculated proportionally to the GDP and taxes and tariffs as mentioned at action 1.5…. Some countries can't pay, so don't make it mandatory. Use environmental offsets or incentives for corporations to provide technology to help developing countries leapfrog polluting practices…. Better to lobby governments to promote R&D via tax incentives, than imposing a budget…. The R&D for sustainable development is complex and new, hence, it needs substantial financial resources. A Global Ecological Foundation should also support the theoretical basis of sustainable development as well as actions to address hot spots…. Lead by international agency, possibly UNEP…. Skeptical

1.9 Substantially increase funding for solar energy research (e.g. by a factor of 50) initiated by private and state energy producers, governments, academic and scientific applied research institutions.

Not necessarily by 50, but it certainly should increase while decreasing subsidies for more environmentally dangerous sources. Energy production and distribution should be decentralized as much as possible... Yes, but make it substantially worthwhile for institutions to get involved...start with a UN General Assembly resolution to involve country contributions to an international agency, possibly UNEP... It is only one direction, the problem is more global and should be addressed by global intellectual and financial effort to develop new sources of energy that can replace the traditional ones.
Getting cost-effective solar energy recognized by the market will be the best way to attract further research funds.

1.10 Create tradable pollution permits that regulate global emission limits for countries or industrial sectors.

The Kyoto Protocol agreed to this in principle. Governments are working on the details now to be addressed at the next meeting on Climate Change. The US has successful experience in this with tradable sulfur dioxide credits. Extending this approach internationally is difficult since there are so many different political systems and there are serious equity issues between industrial and developing countries on apportioning permits ...Yes, but set ceilings. The sulfur dioxide tradable permits are working well... The modalities of the permit mechanism must be carefully tailored to the type of emission and industry, and there are substantial risks in setting quotas and in the possibility of unrecognized loopholes…. A new mechanism - the International Bank for Environmental Settlements - was discussed to provide a framework…. Training for industrialists is essential.

1.11 Further develop ecologically based agriculture to reduce large consumption of water, energy, and other material inputs in agriculture.

This should be the top priority... Put emphases on efficiency not reduction...This will require radical shifts in approaches. The US and EC agricultural policies are anti-environment and anti-market using heavy subsidies and fertilizers. NGOs should lobby to get new funds for CAGAR to conduct the research necessary for the change as they did with the Green Revolution...FAO should lead...If there is full-cost accounting, then the market will work well. Public/private consortiums might also create new communities that show new practices like China has done.

1.12 Encourage new definitions of wealth that could change consumption patterns.

This is the key action. The economic myth of growth at any cost has to be destroyed and a new image of wealth created and sold by the Ad Council, advertising industry, and media stars is essential to achieve this opportunity...Yes, but not just wealth, we need new vision of world harmony...Even if we change the definition of wealth, there is no guarantee people will change their beliefs and behaviors. How to move from concept to behavior change?... Difficult as long as people enjoy their cars...The consumption model in some developing countries (including China), must be changed. We should not freely copy the model of developed countries.

Consumption patterns are extensively covered in Agenda 21, though not directly in relation to definitions of wealth. This requires a fundamental reform of the world's present monetary system. The goals of sustainability are at odds with a global economy that relies on interchangeable currencies, used not only to facilitate the exchange of goods and services but also as stores of wealth. The "monetary imperative" dictates that the best strategy to achieve financial security is the liquidation of assets when their net present value exceeds their discounted future value. We need a transition to currencies whose issuance is based on the actual provision of goods and services and a strict separation of exchange (trade) functions from capital (savings) functions. Locally controlled currencies will isolate local economies from the socially and environmentally destructive vagaries of global economic swings… See Thomas H. Greco, Jr., and New Money for Healthy Communities, <http://www.ic.org/market/money/index.html> and Bernhard Lietaer, Community Currencies: A New Tool for the 21st Century http://www.transaction.net/money/cc/cc01.html….
Ithaca, N.Y. currency system <www.lightlink.com>, LETS (local exchange trading systems) in 20 countries, the Schumacher Society and H.Henderson, Information, the World's New Currency, Isn't Scarce, World Business Academy Perspectives, wba@well.com, …. Skeptical….

New definitions will not help too much to change consumption patterns…. Changing the definition of wealth is a complex process including religion and opinion makers, not only the "voice of greens", to touch the moral dimension, not only the ecological aspect.

1.13 Encourage ethical discourse to make reasonably clean air, water, and healthy soil a higher value than economic value.

Very interesting new model of valuing the environment... Love idea of declaring it a human right. The UN would have to initiate it, but how to get the world to accept it?... People don't change behavior because of ethics, but because a new behavior works better for survival…. Governments have to educate people to understand the environmental facts and impacts. Let the NGOs address the ethics.

Consider corruption in environmental matters as a "special crime" against human dignity…We are now a global people and we need global values. But people don't change because of ethics, they change because of survival. The religious imperative of life should drive religious leaders to provide more leadership in this. Maybe the Vatican should host a world congress on religion and environment to be broadcast on live television during Earth Day…. Maybe 5-7% of the world understands these issues and actions.  Such a global religious event would broaden the world understanding beyond this small percent...

Because of the differences of interests of different groups, it might be a very difficult discourse…. Women can play a very important role in this discourse... World society is in transition to a new system of values and new ethical norms, but clean air, water and soil for the human health should be the first priority. All other priorities should serve the realization of this one....

1.14 Incorporate the concept of sustainability into educational curricula at all levels; include ecology, biodiversity, preservation of resources, and use informal education materials by NGOs that are increasingly available on Internet.

Create a tight focus on the message and include public social marketing as well... UNESCO and UNU should provide some leadership... Old ideas should be changed and the new ones communicated in the primary schools including sustainable development technology and technological innovation…. It is not possible to incorporate the concept of sustainability in the actual educational system. It is necessary to create basically new educational system structure.

1.15 Encourage consumers to purchase from service industries that draw from more environmentally friendly industrial processes.

Agree, connected with ecolabelling…. Consumer unions could share best practices, but who gets to create the seal of approval system?... Leadership should come from Consumer groups and government environmental agencies.... Theoretically it is a good action, but it depends on resources and production tradition, as well as domestic market demand. If very expensive ecologically clean goods are suggested, than only a very restricted part of population will be able to buy it and the corporation will collapse immediately. Will corporations take this risk?…. Privileges of consumers must be institutionalized.

1.16 Encourage synergy between environmental movements and human rights groups to make clean air, water, and land a human right and increase free flow of information about environmental impacts.

Who brings the movements together?...NGOs should lead...Yes, but leadership to do this should come from religious groups who can use the year 2000 as the focal point for the synergy…. Not only human rights, but all types of organisations oriented on communication with people, such as religious and educational organizations…. It is very important, but it is also very difficult, at least for China. Presently, the only solution is the government action.

1.17 Support and promote all modes of family planning by subsidizing and distributing contraceptives, promoting programs to improve health care, diminish infant mortality, improve literacy, and involve women in the monetary economy.

In Asia the governments lead this action, but in Africa UN agencies, USAID, and other outside agencies lead because the governments resist birth control... The family is the first institution to protect the environment…. UNFPA should provide leadership... Since much is going on now, it is a lower priority than the others listed here.

1.18 Develop national laws to compensate victims of pollution and other environmental damage

Very important and should be initiated by government environmental agencies... National laws should be inspired by the principle of global solidarity and responsibility for wrong local actions…. If full-cost accounting were instituted, than inventors and corporate behaviors will change…. Punitive systems produce behavior changes but balance with incentives. Is there a leader in the international systems that can create a world fund to communicate to the customers and provide incentives?  If sustainability were a brand, what would it look like?

UN organizations and corporations should collaborate to show a world with sustainability and one without it…. It is difficult or even not possible to evaluate and count specific environmental damages (for example health of people is complex of many factors where quality of environment is just one of them).

1.19 Conduct UN Summit on sustainable development to update progress and establish international laws for sustainable development.

Necessary to get attention…. We have universal declarations and local ignorance.  Instead we should have a UN Summit to establish "global laws for sustainable development" that should be implemented by local institutions that are globally oriented and supported by global institutions responsible for environmental protection…. It can not be fully mandated and covered by laws. What gets us eventually to sustainability is trade. I think that we can get there in 25 years everywhere except Sub Sahara Africa, and even there I think that another 10 years is all that will be required. For Africa, the time is needed to skip a generation of government officials.

The bases for this process are the three agreements from Rio (climate, diversity and desertification). Now it is necessary to develop further Rio Declaration. International Law will gradually absorb principles of sustainability…. It is very difficult to conduct because of the great differences in the development level of different regions…. Wishful thinking…. Some international summits are necessary and may be useful, but the problem is of equivalency and access to information - Internet is very important.

1.20 Create institutions for increased global environment protection; example: The International Court of Environmental Arbitration and Conciliation.

Evolve to a Global Court of Environment with real but limited powers…. Environment should not be "isolated" but should be seen in broader context. The UN Trusteeship Council could be transformed to the Sustainable Development Council…. No need to create new institutions if UNEP would do its work and push the World Court in the Hague to address such cases…. Probably yes, the problem is that the international institutions, when established, live their own life…. Would be nice but national states are not willing to take responsibility and to be controlled by international organizations.

1.21 Develop model sustainable communities, in different settings around the world that are designed around reduced consumerism, sustainability, community values, traffic-free, sylvan spaces, with fewer than 2,000 people initiated by private land developers with support from, and in consultation with, local government, state government, community development NGOs, other relevant environmental, urban farming, appropriate energy NGOs.

Yes, it is important to make the connection between sustainability and new holistic models of the society…. One of the best proposed actions, "exempla trahunt"…. OK, but lower priority... Use them to create lists of information about what works…. It exists. Local Agenda 21 - in England for example 40 percent of communities have it…. It is not real. These communities are based on different economic models. There is deep need to have private property, private ownership in our mind.

1.22 Provide natural habitat corridors and integration of habitat in agriculture to protect biodiversity initiated by local government regulations, and support programs, farmers and agribusiness, in consultation with environmental NGOs.

Yes, but include academia in the process... This is too specific, better to educate farmers about what works and create incentives to let the market solve it rather than governments.… OK, but lower priority…. It exists (at least in Europe).

1.23 Set goals or limits for percent of land-use for natural pristine reserves, low intensity agriculture, and high intensity agriculture.

Good idea, should be led by government ministries of agriculture and natural resources...We don't know enough to do this yet. Instead, give incentives for good behavior... Interesting idea...  Create the universal principles but customize locally, since the population to land area varies.

1.24 Pursue policies to minimize the need for travel, such as local production and telecommuting, initiated by local governments, planning authorities, industry associations, telecommunications companies, community development NGOs.

It is an important point. Government should take leadership…. Yes, but lower priority... It should be initiated by private sector, not governments.

1.25 Consider sustainable development goals in all other national and international public policies and relations.

Very important and UNEP should coordinate with government environmental agencies…. It is necessary to try and try again…. Very important, but too general

1.26 With broad public support, encourage governments to enter into voluntary agreements with industry, under which industry is willing to commit itself to go "beyond regulation" in exchange for a relaxation of administrative and compliance costs of regulations (data collecting, reporting, verification).

 UNEP should encourage this…. It is more accepted in developed countries (like EU countries); the developing ones are preparing for it…. Today unrealistic, maybe contraproductive.

Additional actions:

Define the concept of an environmental criminal... Nations acting irresponsibly should be penalized, regulatory and legislative measures are part of the answer, but we should not isolate ‘offenders' totally - this only drives them to unsustainable activity. Demonstrate the net benefit of viable alternatives. Share information on the right ways of conducting our activities. It will not be possible in the short term to unhook economic value from environmental values...nor should we try...in the long term unsustainable activities are uneconomic. Community education programs have shown that societal attitudes can change quickly (e.g. seat belts, litter). Disseminate information on consequences. The onus is on those in positions of power to create the opportunities in which people can make appropriate choices…. Add or set up new World Environment Organization and make WTO use full cost pricing and HDI indicators instead of GDP…. Establish an Environmental Security Council as a parallel organization to the UN Security Council that focuses human conflict.

Establish a unified organization for coordinating the relations among UN organizations and countries that is multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral. Such coordination has worked locally very well in Shan-jing-hu region, Jiangxi Province…. Developed countries should provide financial aid for nature conservation in poorer regions...Promote "ecological foot printing", (see Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, 1996) as an alternative to determining human carrying capacity... The IMF should use the Asian financial crisis and forest fires to: 1) give greater weight to sustainable development in their loan criteria; 2) insist on international accounting standards for foreign direct investment; and 3) explore the feasibility of leveraging fees on currency speculation.

The United States should provide leadership in the global consideration of the many trade-offs in the use of "environmental space" and development…. Planners and engineers should be required to provide suburban developments of say 2-5,000 people…. Use the media and education to reduce political manipulation…. It may require guerilla tactics from environmental NGOs to get effective action to achieve this opportunity…. Create "residents compacts" as joint agreements on key development issues. Interface Futurists and Planners…. Instead of showing only media images of "structured permanent employment" show "unstructured part-time employment" as an alternative to unemployment…. Define some alternative macroeconomic indicators to GNP…. Establish face-to-face networking and Internet banks to lend to ethical/sustainable projects as competition with existing banks…. Control intermigration.

The "global view" should include the right of nations to develop and share responsibility for the state of the world…. The UN or World Bank should establish a foundation to support the implementation of the strategies for sustainable development in developing countries. We need an international assessment, raising, and distribution of financial resources…. For better understanding, it should be created a one word international term for sustainable development. In some languages it is difficult to express it…. Sustainable development will be enhanced if relief and development were more integrated. Usually, UNHCR is the first organization to enter a post-conflict situation. There is little connection between relief programs and the development programs that follow. This could be changed if the World Bank, UNDP and others created a joint approach with UNHCR during assessments and missions.

The public has little understanding of sustainable development. How to reach the masses? There is a need to create edutainment and games to teach the public the issues and responsible behavior.

General comments:

Implementation of Agenda 21 is lagging far behind what was anticipated in Rio in 1992. But that does not mean that Agenda 21 is dead, that its goals are invalid, or that all its proposed steps to sustainability are wrong. The great coincidence of Millennium Project's present list of suggested actions with Agenda 21 proves the contrary. The Millennium Project should consider revisiting Agenda 21 in greater depth as the focus of a future special project...Our problem is that the current market economy system is very imperfect but we do not have a better system. We need a new philosophy or development, which would help to find an alternative economic system.

Ways of realisation of sustainable development: from the top: create the system of laws, directions, and financing. From the bottom: change the view of the world, change of patterns, change of style of life
 

 
2. Increasing acceptance of long-term perspectives in policy making

Complexity of issues, increasing numbers of people involved in decisions, globalization, and other unprecedented conditions, such as the psychological impact of the millennium and the year 2000 computer problem, are stimulating increased corporate, political, academic, and personal thinking about future possibilities. The number and capabilities of institutions which provide routine updates on near-future dynamics are increasing, as are future-oriented units within organizations, and future-oriented university courses. Long-term perspectives and improving methodology could be increasingly applied to address the full range of global issues and opportunities to improve conditions for current and future generations.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

Without this kind of focus on the future our policy makers won't be asking the right sorts of questions. Policy makers seem to forget about the future except at election time…. Futures issues are longer than the elections' period.... There are no forces in society, which are responsible for the future. Nobody asks policy makers: "What have you done for the future? What will be the consequences of the actions implemented today?".… The complexity of decision making also is increased by the increasing diversity of interests among the decision-makers making common vision more difficult. Africa has leaders with little education who cannot understand the issues and will not listen to advice…. Future oriented studies are not taken seriously by politicians. Actions suggested in this questionnaire might be considered to be attempts to change the situation. But even if policy makers were well educated they would not necessarily act in accordance with long-term perspectives, because long-term perspectives restrict their actions.

Recognize that there are fads in problems. We get attracted to one at the expense of others.... The further out is the horizon, the more important it is to deal with uncertainty. Climate change is an example. Maybe it would be better to invest some of the money that will be spent in reducing greenhouse gas emission to reduce the uncertainty of the issue…. Any path will do if you don't know where you're going…. Local government has failed to shift its policies from those based on full employment and low population.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

2.1 Create participatory processes informed by futures research to develop national and corporate visions of the future.

Why only "national and corporate?" Every level of governance, and particularly educational institutions and organizations entrusted with the preservation of natural and cultural heritage or the institutional control of long-lived hazards, such as nuclear wastes, should have visions of the future... Yes, but should not be ad hoc or short-term; should have all sectors involved and be accumulative…. Develop at local, national, regional, and global level.... Global issues require a global mechanism to interlink and produce appropriate participation.  Regional networks should collate and look into collective perspectives as needed. National and UN agencies should provide leader for credibility…. Visions are often wrong. Just look at the history of the "problem of the moment". Before climate we had the urban crisis. None of the visions have proven correct. I'd be wary of visions. Public debate about large-scale problems should be based on principles. Policies must be flexible, adaptable, and able to respond to new information.

2.2 Initiate training that includes long-term perspectives in policy making for future leaders.

Long-term and global perspectives… Include current policy advisors and implementers as well as future leaders…. Include sensitivity to relevant regional issues and how to deal with uncertainty, and decision-making…. We also need public education or social marketing for pubic awareness of the need for futures thinking. People are poor because they don't have the long-term future consciousness - tomorrow is discounted.  Even the Bible says the future will take care of itself.
The experience shows that future-oriented studies and policymaking could not be separated from each other, they should be linked...It is difficult to set up future studies in the universities because we do not have professional training programs. Even the USA is not ready to set up such faculties...  But we already can set up departments and courses at the universities in order to prepare a new generation...

2.3 Create National Futures Academies as networks of universities that teach futures studies with a World Futures Academy as an advisory group for each national academy to improve the quality of instruction (as initiated by Finland Futures Research Center).

Create local, national, regional, and global academies... Use existent capacity too. University departments could be coordinated. These could also create some competition.... Consider establishing National and International Academies of Forecasting.

2.4 Expand research into nonlinear modeling of social, political and economic systems to improve forecasting.

Improve future-oriented methods in general. Today we have only two approaches, exploratory (trends and models) and normative (goal-oriented). All theoretical approaches should be reconsidered…. Include dynamic biological and ecological models…. We simply do not know enough about the basic systems that are involved to believe much in complex models.

2.5 Create future studies summer camps with access to all modern telecommunications technology.

May not be enough time for a meaningful impact, but explore a range of communication techniques. Local issues should be included…. What outcomes are expected?

2.6 Integrate futures, creative, non-linear thinking into educational systems including effective decision making, including the moral basis for decisions, the nature of risk, and dealing with uncertainty.

Such thinking should be added to all systems (legal, business, agricultural, etc.), not just into the schoolroom…. This is important and should be done as soon as possible.

2.7 Promote the use of global scenarios in UN and other international organizations.

This is desirable for global decisions, but local realities and local variations should be included so views are not unilateral and prevent local conflicts…. Unless this is done right it would promote the worst kind of decision-making…. Add regional organizations.
UN General Assembly is a political organization that produces the lowest common denominator. The UNU could play a more active role as a think tank and produce these scenarios.

2.8 Incorporate futures research methods at all levels of policy making.

The leadership and initiation has to come from an individual and then national planning commissions should lead.

2.9 Develop socio-cultural indicators (and data collection) that promote analysis. Perform research on the interaction of these indicators with other global scientific, economic, political and environmental factors.

It is important to develop alternative indicators as what gets measured, gets attention.

2.10 Use the Internet to: a) distribute information about potential consequences of actions of the UN and other inter-governmental organizations; b) disseminate policy analysis and forecasting tools on Internet; and c) create a global repository for socio-cultural data so that all agencies can conduct foresight policy analysis.

Important - but the action needs a strategic overlay.  What is the strategic intent here?…. Self-imposed ethical codes/guidelines should be evolved, otherwise it will destroy the social order…. Direct satellite access and rechargeable batteries for computers will broaden Internet access to those without electricity and telephone lines.

2.11 Convert futures research methods into teaching methods for a broad range of courses.

Very important; especially the awareness of qualitative input to decision making.

2.12 Include futures research methods and perspectives in MBA courses on strategic management.

Futures research methods and perspectives should be integrating into all subjects, not just MBA.

2.13 Use the year 2000 as an opportunity to introduce futures methods and perspectives.

Yes, very good…. 2.13 & 14 These actions are not particularly useful as there is too much competition for attention around the year 2000 and there is a cultural distortion that everyone shares the Christian calendar.
 

2.14 Create opportunities for countries to share their futures perspectives during their millennium activities.

There should be an international conference toward the end of the year 2001 on the future, led by the UNU or the Millennium Project. In this way, nations can benefit by some other activities held earlier, prior to giving their perspectives at the conference…. Nations think they will lose their advantage if they share, but if common issues are identified that require collaboration, then they may try to share.

2.15 Governments should periodically communicate the implications of decisions to the public.

This should be done all the time via the media including Internet…. The right to information is a fundamental right. This should be required…. This action is too broad in its current form.

2.16 Formally integrate analysis and forecasting of global long-range implications into intergovernmental meetings.

Best are intergovernmental meetings of ministers of such as ECOWAS, EC, G-8, etc.... Even into national meetings - what are the implications of future studies in the country and the region…. We have to avoid getting attached to specific forecasts and include a range of possible outcomes and uncertainty in decision making….Too general.  Would be nice, but difficult to implement…. Politics of inter-government meetings makes this very difficult.

Additional actions:

The President should make a commitment to educate the staff in long-range thinking. What are needed are incentives for policy makers to think ahead. The Millennium Project is a beginning because it gets the future-oriented issues in front of the policy makers... Futures Research has to be fine-tuned to create a recognized niche. Successful pilot studies should be shared…. Develop methods for efficiently communicating, networking, and interactively revising future visions of interdependent entities. Effective exchange of future studies, views, and assessments among national, state, and local governments, private sector establishments, and various interest groups can stimulate the development of more comprehensive scenarios and visions and correct unrealistic expectations of likely actions and reactions of other stakeholders.

Indicators should be developed to assess long term performance of companies. Theoretical understanding is that companies that survive long periods are far more attentive to their stakeholders rather than their shareholders. This needs to be communicated as older, stakeholder companies provide more benefit to the community…. Longer-term perspective should have cooperation rather than competition as a focus. Professional groups and banks should get local government to change town planning laws to require 20-30 years considerations and re-educate engineers and town planners to embrace longer-term perspectives.

Additional comment:

All of this leads to the question about the right way to spend money. For some class of problems, the right thing to do is act and act now. For other problems, the right thing to do is spend money for research. Still other problems should result in decisions to spend money for information, which may be important to reduce uncertainty. We don't yet have a formula for picking the right course.

3.  Expanding potential for scientific and technological breakthroughs

Information and communications systems are broadening the scope, accelerating the pace, and increasing the synergy of scientific discovery and technological applications. Development of new theoretical principles in science is leading to great improvements in physics, biology, and chemistry which are leading to great improvements in engineering and medicine. Hardware and software are developing at an unprecedented pace. The computer defeated the previously "undefeatable" human chess master. Brain-like intelligent systems using neural networks and other simulation technologies will help achieve a more functional understanding of human cognition, intelligence, thought, and self-consciousness.

Nanotechnology (machines whose parts are measured in millionths of a millimeter) promises to lower unit cost, and spread the benefits of technology while lowering the environmental impact of a growing world economy and population. Vaccinology and genetic medicine will eliminate many acquired and inherited diseases. Rather than reducing support of the new frontiers of science and technology, renewed efforts should provide extraordinary tools to improve the human condition.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

During the Cold War a lot of parallel basic research was carried out in different countries at the same time. Today basic scientific research is becoming more expensive, specialized, and conducted in centers with international participation, giving rise to a new need for international principles of international specialization and collaboration. The International Space Station and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are examples. The results of these studies should belong to world society.... Information Technology changes the nature of research. Production of scientific knowledge is now more trans-disciplinary - a wider range of institutions is now involved. The pace seems to be accelerating. There is synergy coming from the trans-disciplinary approaches.

The scientific and technological streams have fused together. Physics, now reaching the limits of affordable work may have peaked.  Life and environmental sciences are now taking the lead. Physics no longer leads the science hierarchy. The linear model of development is now rejected in favor of an interactive one: pull demand from society and push from suppliers. Bell Labs is cutting back on physics funding. There is a move from reductionist approaches to holistic ones (complex systems).

Unless we have a devastating war or an ecological disaster throwing us back to a new Dark Age the pace of new discoveries will not slow down. Genetic medicine, for example, is a frontier that enlists the body's resources to fight disease. It concentrates on curing of diseases from the inside, rather than conventional medicine, which administers therapies from the outside in. The field has begun by attacking diseases that are based on single gene deficiencies, ADA- immuno deficiency diseases and others that involve single nucleotide abnormalities.

The field is just beginning. The diseases that involve polygenic mechanisms like diabetes require several interventions and are more complicated. Decoding the genome will allow us to form a technological algorithm for identifying the actors in these diseases, the abnormal nucleotides… Advances in genetics will remove many diseases, but new ones will emerge; possibly because we didn't detect them before…. Silicon-based semiconductor technology still has major breakthroughs coming. Super-computers will be used more widely, affecting all branches of science and technology. Memory chips will soon reach above one giga-byte capacity, reducing costs further, making them even more popular, and continue to change communication patters.   Soon we will see one computer on one chip.

Information-communication-decision-organization should be considered as one large-scale complex social system that too can have breakthroughs. Some areas to explore are "autopoiesis" or self-organization, "transducers" between digital technology and social systems, and "mimes" or units of information that can make change.
Research should be done at the local level by individual research institutions, and only those activities that require global action should be done through international research programs. Bureaucrats create fewer and larger centralized entities that ultimately lead to a lack of cultural diversity. This danger is especially evident if these large international organizations wish to be global coordinators who decide what is permitted…. Motorola is working on "scientific road maps" that show the potential evolution of selected sciences. They can be problem-driven (e.g. global warming) or science-driven. They are multi-disciplinary and show synergies among sciences. Previously technology road maps were built to show the next steps in the evolution of a technology; now these science road maps let us go a layer deeper. It is in effect a world dialog through the scientific community that helps policy makers understand what's likely to flow from the sciences. Ethicists and anthropologists look at the cultural impacts that come with the sciences that are being mapped. The issues are posed as dilemmas flowing from the new sciences.

The only way to encourage originality is through organizational diversity and the best way to get scientific and technological breakthroughs is through a free scientific community. One needs randomness in science and (less so) in technology to generate originality of ideas. Attempts by politicians or bureaucrats to make science and technology efficient in the delivery of value to the community lead to imposed direction. Such imposition stifles creativity and originality and discourages breakthroughs.  Previously, people valued knowledge for its own sake. Now people value only the application of the knowledge…. Science is becoming a property of particular group. Participation in science evolution is inadequate. Protest is there because of this. Science has taken many things for granted; Science has superficial/specific resource utility approach e.g. If we are working on an active principle in the seed of a plant then the utility of rest of the plant is ignored…. There is a notable reluctance and difficulty to diffuse such information.

The application of scientific results and popularization of scientific knowledge are still at a low level.... Compared to the natural sciences, the social sciences developed slowly in the 20th century…. Because the advance of any science needs the support from economy, it is very difficult for the developing countries…. If we applied just a small amount of scientific knowledge in Africa, the development process would be transformed…. Developed countries should aid freely developing countries, and provide the global cooperation.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

3.1 Support basic research, which provides the growing pool of knowledge from which applied science draws its insight.

Collect all the good arguments for basic research. The 1999 UNESCO/ICSU conference on science could be the focus for such collection and distribution. CERN's Internet homepage could perform this service…. We need a new rationale for basic research - the old ones do not work as well today.... It is not only important for the "growing pool of knowledge", but also for the pool of people with skills and knowledge for the wider society…. Nation-states are the only entities with the money to set science policy; there is no global strategy for basic scientific research. UNESCO cannot do it because it is still an organization of states. Regional policy attempts like the EU were imposed from the top and did not work well. Linking labs into collaboratories as labs "without walls" is working to improve science. ICSU can help to develop global strategy, but the nation-states make the decisions. Diversitas could build a global strategy for biodiversity.... Attention should also be given attention to fields that might not be efficient today, but could still produce breakthroughs.

Whenever possible, international and bilateral support should go directly to scientists rather than through National Ministries of Science.... If basic research is stopped, sooner or later all other research will stop.  Information from basic research should be accessible to all, except in cases that have immediate technological applications...Richer countries can put more into basic research, while poorer countries have to focus on applied research.... Japan is an example of a country that is now moving more into basic research as its income rises.... Corporations should be involved more and more and it is in their interests to do so.... The issue that the military technology serves the civil should be taken into consideration.

Develop the main principles of international specialization for research; develop and accept international convention for the regulation of basic principles of collaboration; and develop principles for international support of unique research centers.

Since basic research has become international, it should be financed internationally.  National contributions should be proportional to GDP and should not depend on the research location.... The first principle of international collaboration should be that this knowledge should be open and belong to the world society. It is a first principle of international collaboration.... A second principle should be the selection of unique plants and/or equipment to prevent unnecessary redundancy, such as particle accelerators and space stations. These plants should be supported not only by the governments, but also by corporations and patrons of the arts and sciences.... More attention should be paid to applied fundamental study in methodology.

3.2 Encourage the development of new theoretical principles in science that might lead to great improvements in energy, engines, geophysical devices, materials processing, medical devices, and information, communication, decision and organization systems.

The peers should decide the global significance because in basic research the global significance will be realized much later…. It is a necessity not a luxury to provide a long-term support systems like the monasteries in which people can be free from all material worries.  The other necessity is to identify scientists with the greatest potential - worldwide.

One of the big issues is international diffusion of new discoveries and technology. There is an economic driver to diffusion. This is an area where we have to encourage openness of markets to promote diffusion, unlike closed market that inhibited innovation in the old Soviet Union…. Although scientific insight comes to an individual, science today is done in groups using large systems of technology. Old types of large science conferences are not as useful as collaboratories.

International coordination for basic research will have considerable effect on efficient usage of resources.... We need a climate to encourage people to enter science. Provide scholarships, encourage innovation, remove barriers to achievement, and open the doors to all that want to participate…. Some cultures tend to stop women entering science. We should keep the field competitive -competition stimulates wonderful performance - and rewards individuals who do well.

We have to differentiate between R&D for the pursuit of new theoretical principles or for incremental progress. Marginal costs are rising, and the only way to cut through this is with R&D…. Add development of new tools as well as new principles…. This has to be done in the "fringe" or interdisciplinary areas…. Wouldn't give undue emphasis - less predictable. It will happen when everything else is right; it is a tool not a goal.

3.3. Offer substantial prizes for the achievement of breakthroughs that have global significance.

A Noble Prize for applied research is useful. Local prizes in developing countries would also be helpful. We have the Kharazmi Prize that has attracted attention in our and other developing countries…. It is good to offer substantial prizes for the achievement of breakthroughs at global, regional, and national level. These prizes could be connected not only with some achievements but also with the contribution of the scientist to the development of a field of knowledge.... It could be an international agency working on the principles of Nobel Prizes to follow the contribution of world famous scientists. Nobel Prizes are offered in restricted fields and are not really international, as the decision is made by the Academy of one country.

The international team of experts should make decision about the international prizes.   We can face many problems in this way. One of the problems is corruption; another is the problem of criteria of selection of breakthroughs…. Make this for "technological" or "applied science" breakthroughs, since there are already substantial prizes in "pure" science…. Nobel prizes are awarded very late; more contemporary prizes might be an incentive and would stimulate the next generation.  The amount of money is less important than the peer recognition…. Place more emphasis in their award decisions on cooperative behavior and efforts at sharing techniques with colleagues.... It is helpful but will never be a major mechanism…. As prizes have lost their impact…. I'm not sure prizes stimulate science and engineering, but they are great devices for bringing science to public attention…. They help to maintain the tempo, but inherent inquisitiveness will enable the person to innovate, not prizes.  Geniuses die as paupers.  Prizes are a temporary excitement. We have to find more lasting ways to support basic inquisitiveness and creative minds.

The Japan Prize is more money than the Nobel Prize, but few have ever heard of the Japan Prize. There is no evidence that these prizes increase the rate of scientific discovery. In business your success in immediately rewarded with money, but rarely so in science.

3.4 Increase international resources for research and dissemination of findings by subsidizing less industrialized countries.

Include individual scientists in developing countries with those in more advanced countries to design programs together that can be carried out through the Internet.  Complete full Internet connections to all countries and expand access within developing countries for more users…. Third World has both a work force and a THINKING FORCE at reasonable prices. Better to hire or contract than to subsidize them.  India is an example in software development.... UNDP, ESCAP, APCCT and the like provide international training, but with little meaningful effects. These mechanisms need to be useful for both donor and receiver…. India and China produce good science, but received few subsidies.  If a culture is not interested in developing its science, foreign assistance will not matter.
Why was Arabic culture so bright in science in the past, but today seems to have disappeared from scientific leadership? Most effective way is to twin labs in the developing world with those in the richer countries.

Technology diffusion should be adapted to ethical, educational, cultural, and religious situations. Innovation in developing countries could be supported by international organizations for educational programs, information infrastructure, including Internet access, business centers, and innovation centers in universities.... It is worthy to get this into EU policies, but not sure how effective it really is…. Developing countries should have the same duty as developed ones…. Aid dissemination by encouraging publication of research results on the Internet…. We should not neglect the fact that the developing countries have many significant discoveries and preferable resources.

The developed countries have the obligations to supply technological transaction and employment training to the developing countries…. This is positive and negative: no industrialized country will give without a price.  There is a hazy glass barrier…. Support is getting reduced because of patenting issues.  Strengthen UN's WIPO systems.

3.5 Increase education in machine intelligence, cybernetics and human cognitive development, with additional emphasis on human social and emotional development.

Machine intelligence/cybernetics shouldn't be the top priority. Social and educational development that addresses emotional reactions to new technologies and teaches people how to understand risk management is a higher priority…. Sure, but why single this out among the 2 million other important ideas?…. Add "brain science".

3.6 Develop an effective means for assessing positive and negative consequences of breakthroughs before the fact.

This is applications technology, not science, but it would be good to create a global legal assessment system. The process should be informed by scientists, but decisions should be made by politicians.  UNESCO is one logical leader for this…. It seems suitable if done selectively. An international code of conduct might be needed and can be developed by UNESCO…. Encourage the evolution of an open process taking advantage of the powerful new communications features of the Internet.

Assess technology rather than breakthroughs (which cannot be predicted). The debate should take place in advance. The UK is weak on technology assessment; the EU and Netherlands are strong; and the US was, but has just closed it down…. Long-term consequences have to be identified but will it "break" the breakthrough before it is born?…. "Effective" is a relative term. Let the idea/creativity get through, then we can see.

Currently methods tend to show consequences in some areas while disregarding others. Negative consequences emerge in unexpected areas. Assessing negative consequences can be contrary to the interests of the corporation. Marketing interests can influence the development of models and the identification of parameters that show only positive consequences, ignoring dangerous impacts on society.... Almost impossible to get it right. History is full of stupid ideas about what science will produce and how it will affect society.  We should be free to study almost anything.... Positively utopic at this stage…. If only it could be done!

3.7 Encourage global collaboratories for interdisciplinary and transcultural research.

This is the most important way to advance science.  Such collaboratories could evolve regional scientific strategies.... This is necessary for the issue of the earth's environment, which needs the cooperation of the world (e.g. resources and centralization of this work by UN and government organizations)…. International collaboration should be organized because it is difficult to get funding for interdisciplinary research…. The UN should take the responsibility for promoting international exchange and cooperation and establishing international network of institutes…. Yes, but global bandwidth needs to be increased.  We need a global NGO that pressures ITU and governments for science support like increased bandwidth. Begin with specialty NGOs and build global associations.

This is great, but research often wanders and is necessarily unfocused. I worry about over-managing projects. Particle physics was once done by individuals in their own labs; now particle physics involves big machines and armies of people. This kind of program makes accountants happy - they can keep track of expenditures and schedules and the like - but we have to keep small groups alive. There are good managers and good innovators but it's rare to find such traits in the same individual…. With restrictions on patenting; is it feasible?  Changes in patenting system are necessary. The movement of people and consensus should solve this.  Information is a market. Science is not institutionally based but individually based. We have seen institutions collapse with the exit of individuals.

[Editor's note: People confuse collaboratories with simply email exchanges.  Collaboratories allow for the full exchange and interactivity as if one were in a common lab while actually being in different places.]

3.8 Integrate "how to learn" including the scientific method into educational systems and professional training programs.

Future leaders don't get one hour of science in the top schools of management, yet these leaders will make the decisions that determine the future of science. Create a basic scientific unit for executives including the history of science…. Include systems approaches.

3.9 Fund the development of knowledge based databases in rapidly advancing fields such as microgenetics.

To make this work, we need a global entry point (Internet web site) where you can find links to good quality data bases. 200 or more individuals could monitor Internet sites of their interests and provide digests for the quality links. These individuals would have to be motivated by improving the quality of science not money. The Virtual Library is not getting this done. CERN might do this, maybe ICSU should…. Add socialware and sociocybernetics…. Prefer investments into collaboratories rather than data bases.

It is happening already - across all sciences (facilitated by IT developments), and software (modeling) can now be much more systematic in pulling together data from across the world. Have begun to understand complex systems, but not sure about priority…. Should be developed to solve problems such as hunger and these benefits are considered alongside possible negative consequences.

Additional actions:

Because we are accelerating international collaboration in science, we need some international convention in order to determine the main principles of collaboration.... Explain the environmental and population impact of nanotech and reach an understanding of who is turning away from science. Support overall S&T not just frontiers. UNESCO should focus more attention on the link between application and research.

A better development policy, than technology transfer from the rich to the poor, is to teach people science and technology (like software for agriculture) to better manage their own resources.  This will also improve understanding of the long-term consequences of decisions rather than to pit environment vs. economic growth.

National development banks in poorer regions should make funds available for R & D for new competitive local production systems and new technological applications.... WIPC should help developing countries create their own patent systems.... To popularize the importance and fun in science and technology, government science and technology committees should add people in the media, education, and the arts to create art and music, videos, exhibitions, competitions, and S&T clubs.

When inventions are proprietary, they tend to lock up the technology. Companies performing research deserve to get a return for their efforts, but the question is how to get such developments into the public domain as soon as practical.  We should invent policies that solve this problem.... Developing countries need ways to participate in research and share in the results. Think about standardized regulation to foster the spread and introduction of new technology…. Novel technologies should be introduced using pilot programs wherever that is feasible. This includes social technologies as well.

Perhaps we need a new kind of research institution. Santa Fe Institute may be a precursor. Their system is designed to promote turnover- no tenure. People stay there from 6 months to a maximum of 4-5 years. Average one year. The individual is the research unit, but of course there is a lot of collaboration with others…. R & D management skills and innovation management should be taught at Universities.
 
4. Transforming authoritarian regimes to democracies

For the first time in history, more people live in democracies than dictatorships. According to Freedom House 3.1 billion people live under democratically elected governments. Of 191 sovereign states, they rated 76 countries free, 62 partly free, and 53 not free with 19.5%, 41.5%, and 39% of global population respectively. The Heritage Foundation rated 72 countries economically free or mostly free and 78 as mostly unfree or repressed. Globalization of markets, media, and information technology, together with the end of the Cold War, urbanization, and mass education appear to have led to this transition. Since democracies tend not to fight each other or initiate wars, the number of national wars is likely to decrease.

Cultures around the world are completing the social transformation from pre-modern to modern and post-modern societies that are more literate and urban, with longer life expectancy, and increased income and living standards. Authoritarian regimes are increasingly conscious of the importance of democratic processes for social stability and general development and thus may be willing to evolve their systems in the new direction.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

It should be explicit that democracy is a global goal…. Search for the proper balance between democracy and economic security during these transitions.  Popular sovereignty is the basic building block of democracy that includes the concept of an equal playing field.  Then the market can work to improve human and democratic development…. Economic freedom via free markets is not always equal to democracy. Scandinavian countries do not have free markets but are democracies.... Improving literacy is essential for successful transformation to democracy…. Different areas may require different political systems. Many Africans are not educated enough to give an informed vote; some elections are rigged. (Boxes of voter registration cards - easily printed from computers - have been illegally distributed.).... Important not to see democracy as the be all and end all of policy. It is clearly preferable to dictatorships, but multi-party elections are not a guarantee of civil rights.

Democracy needs to be carefully developed in stages.... This is a transition of small steps and should be seen differently in different cultural contexts, otherwise prejudice evolves from not understanding the different contexts. It is true that human rights are related to Western societies, but why not consider that such rights have been freely assumed by different societies? The successes of Nelson Mandela and Gandhi were related to such rights emanating from western societies. Western societies have much to learn from African and Asian concepts such as those of community solidarity which may well also become human right…. Transparence is as important as competition. A working partnership between the state and a growing non-state sector is essential. The three major trends in development policy over the last 50 years are sustainable economic growth, increased use of the non-state sector, and an increasing convergence of the views on human development - both what it means and policy to achieve it.

Although the number of wars are likely to decrease as the number of democracies increase, simply holding multi-party elections does not guarantee a more just society. A sense of coherence within a country and regions as well as the establishment of other institutions of democracy are also necessary.... In hard times an originally democratic nation can cause war such as Hitler did…. The number and impact of wars (especially regional wars for resources like water) will probably grow because cultures in some regions (maybe as heritage of Berlin Wall fall) are completing the social transformation…. Democracy implemented from outside can be counterproductive. Interesting question is mutual relation between democracy and cultural plurality. Sometimes "democracy" is just label for hidden form of geopolitical struggle. In some cases in the world temporary authoritarian regime can be maybe productive ("enlightened authority")…. Some preach democracy as a religion. Political ideas have a lifetime; democracy may lead until a new idea comes along…. There aren't many true dictatorships left. Democracies tend to argue but not fight with one another.

In an etymological sense, are there really any democracies? Most in ancient Athens's democracy were women and slaves. The majorities of US citizens either don't vote or vote for the candidate that loses. Mass media sells everything from soap to politicians.  Manipulation of information puts freedom of choice in jeopardy.   Although there should be measures to encourage progress, elections and others may be misleading. Other indicators like UNDP's Human Development Index should also be considered.

Authoritarian regimes have authoritarian cultures; their leaders believe they have a responsibility to lead the ignorant masses like children…. The democracy should not be the equivalent to certain political systems. In global civilization it is necessary to have a consensus between cultures about new tools and approaches for democracy…. Our corporation funds projects in developing countries and we bring US policy makers to developing countries to understand conditions. Fifty percent of the US Congress has never been out of the US and 75% have never been in Asia. There are other companies that are part of this effort. We also exchange people with the World Bank. They provide the money, we provide telecommunications and information, rural communications. Information networks brought to rural schools show different ways of living.

The object is to create wealth in these countries, to raise the quality of life. It is in our interest after all. When there are more people with money who live in a freer society, more products can be sold and the people benefit too. In the old days, companies went to developing countries to have access to low cost labor; now the incentive is access to growing markets. But for markets to develop, economic conditions have to improve. And for improvement in markets, the environment has to be open.

Corruption is a problem. When there is corruption at the top, we refuse to cooperate. At lower levels, we simply raise salaries, instead of paying bribes. These countries have no pension systems so when the leaders are out of office, their income ceases. We explore pensions for them- this way their retirement is more secure and there is less incentive for corruption when they are in power.... There are three types of investments that companies can make besides factories. There are too many factories anyway. These are education centers, software centers, and R&D centers. These activities bring home leadership and result in the creation of a favorable climate for expatriates to return from abroad. Those people who return bring with them experience in living in different cultures.
The combination of centralization and democracy is a problem for societies in transition.... Some economic progress is occurring in dictatorships. Many people have reconsidered their position, but for political reasons do not speak about it.
The increasing use of public interest polling (as distinct from special interest polling) and global public education TV channels such as WETV are strengthening the trends toward democracy .

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

4.1 Make development assistance and loans from international organizations dependent on progress toward democracy.

This worked in Malawi and Kenya.... Make a distinction between humanitarian and development assistance.... Multilateral sanctions can help, but not development assistance conditionality. Development of democratic institutions have to grow from the inside of a nation, not imposed from outside.

A sustainable democracy is achieved when the people get the government to be accountable to them, not an external organization...When under pressure from a donor, events can be constructed to make it look like progress has occurred, when in reality nothing lasting resulted.... All assistance should not be depended on this, since it is difficult to define the phases of democratic development.... Who will be referees and what are their interests?.... It doesn't help to keep countries underdeveloped. Certainly loans should not be extended to brutal dictatorships.

International organizations like the IMF are dictated to by rich countries like America. To help the transformation to democracies, international organizations should seek consensus from nations and regional organizations like European Union and SAARC…. It is not wise to provide aid on the basis of political system, but on the basis of particular projects…. The development assistance through foundations is better than through PHARE, more transparency, more effectiveness, intersectoral discussion about effectiveness of individual forms of assistance is necessary…. Development assistance should only be given with concrete cooperation and participation of those to be helped.

4.2 Increase support and visibility of UN Electoral Units, which aids governments in election design, management, and monitoring.

Over 80 elections have either been monitored and more are scheduled.... By and large this is OK, but political parties should take the lead and show keen interest…. It is working today satisfactorily…. Yes, but in some countries UN officials get fooled too easily.... The key word is visibility.... A lot of resources have gone to the "agenda of peace" at the expense of development assistance.... Are societies ready for democratic elections and traditions, which have lived under dictatorships for a long time? Is it enough to develop a necessary legislative base and to provide a democratic election? Can such a population understand its own interests and responsible roles in elections?
The process of democratization is not simply copying a model; it is a painful process of transformation. International institutions can help by giving information about world experiences and different policies but they should not force the process.

4.3 Support short wave, AM, and FM radio transmissions to areas with less access to alternative sources of news.

Add TV and Internet…. CNN and BBC are making it difficult for people to stay in ignorance.... Increase all kinds of linkages because isolation is a primary cause of poverty and support for dictatorships.... I'm 100% in favor of this initiated by bi-lateral and multi-lateral assistance, but not those alternative radio stations that incite conflict like the one that incited the Hutu to kill the Tutsi. There should be some council to prevent such extremist content.... With oversight by NGOs or international organizations to promote democracy, respect, and balanced news reporting. Closing the radio in Bosnia that broadcast hate was appropriate.

UN Department of Public Information does provide information to radio stations, but it should not lead in creating alternative stations except where UN Peacekeeping forces are stationed.... People in dictatorships are hungry for information, communications, and personal contact from other countries. Internet is another way to organize the relationships. But few have access and there is no cultural understanding of Internet culture; hence radio makes sense…. This is not an attractive proposition as visual media is so cheap and is fast covering the whole globe.  Privatization and free media are the solutions.  We are moving towards them.

4.4 Conduct (via UNDP, UNU, IMF, International Court, universities, NGOs like Transparency International, OAU, and related organizations) advanced training programs and seminars for senior political officials to discuss with their international peers successful transition strategies in the areas of the rule of law, respect for human rights, free media, tolerance of political opposition, free elections, and an independent civil society.

Use leaders who have strong moral foundations.... Agree that UN agencies and NGOs should take the lead. A charter on democracy should be evolved something like human rights declaration that can be signed by all countries.  Retired judges are the best persons to take the lead.  Perhaps we could pass a resolution at the speaker's conference…. The discussions should analyze the problems of transitional society and develop recommendations based on the trends of evolution, rather than to try to impose stereotype ways of thinking and acting.

Yes, but there is the danger of export of certain development models. We should be aware of cultural identity…. Skeptical, seminars have little effectiveness…. Yes, but guarantee, that the approach is not partially in some private interests.

4.5 Create and implement a new kind of "Global Marshall Plan" as a partnership between high income countries and those with less industrial and entrepreneurial cultures.

Add after cultures: "in order to create local-regional-national-global capacity to participate in the shaping of the emergent global information society"…. Good idea, but go back to term used in last year's report "global partnership for development" rather than "Marshall Plan" as it has too many associations not really included in the partnership concept.... Partnership is preferable, sceptical about the assistance from abroad…. A moral compact is needed for a long-term collaboration and mutual relations, not quick and massive infusion of assistance in one-direction.

UN member nations feel they are either part of those that assist or those that are assisted, but do feel as citizens of the world together; hence awareness of instability emerges…. Very important and add UNDP to the list.... This recognizes the important connection between economic growth and democracy.... Progress must be tied to business and profit. One reason for Africa's troubles is its lack of adequate institutions. When information and capital flow, central authority diminishes and democracy spreads. With the Internet, control is more difficult so Internet is spreading democracy. Open markets in poorer countries with authoritarian regimes will enhance their development.

Global Marshall Plan would not be needed if world economy prices would be fair prices for agricultural products from developing countries, price of tropical rainforest as absorbers of CO2, etc….There are not enough resources in the world to realize this plan. Make it more focused on nations that have some background for modernization (educational, financial, and intellectual) such as European countries in transition…. Perhaps yes, but could be abused, especially by elites…. Criteria should be made by independent international organization - probably UN…. No single country should control it.... Over a period of time international guidelines will evolve. The quantum of aid given to a country should depend on the output.

Good, but I am a little bit skeptical how to realize it…. As for China- let them get rich. Don't worry about how their development will affect the world's environment. There's lots of data that shows that the environment degrades at first during the development process, but as they get richer, the environment improves.

4.6 Give more force to human rights by defining when human rights are so abused that national sovereignty is less important than international rights to regulate the global environment with increased UN enforcement powers.

Intervention into Liberia by ECOWAS was justified and was possible, but who could intervene in Nigeria? Those who are weak can be disciplined, but who will discipline the strong?…. Better to ask how do you enforce human rights, rather than asking when protection of human rights is more important than sovereignty. Dealing with this whole question is central to international affairs today.... Genocide is a clear reason for intervention…. Of course human rights are more important than national sovereignty.  Codes could be evolved as have been done for war crimes…. Very problematic. Who will define when human rights are abused so much that we can "break" national sovereignty?

Human rights are not "absolute", they must be counterbalanced by responsibility…. International organizations and NGOs should collaborate to define the gradations of other reasons.... The UN Security Council and the General Assembly should use sanctions for those who abuse human rights.... Get national governments to make it national policy in addition to a UN statement. The US Dept of State issues an annual human rights report which has become the annual state of human rights around the world.

Human rights is a complex concept. Social rights under socialist dictatorship regimes were supported better, but the private rights were not defended. Today, in some countries in transition, social rights are not honored. Totalitarianism is increasing, increasing poverty. In addition, all positive achievements from socialist regimes have been lost... Global attention is very important, but these issues tend to be solved regionally. UN budgets and/or organizational capacity are too small to solve these problems. World society is not ready to do it yet. In addition, we face different organizational and political problems.

War does not end, as in the past, with diplomatic treaties as Bosnia shows, but needs a new way of thinking and operating.  The limited peace keeping authority of the UN prevents its ability to transmit a global image as a security agency and agent of human rights. The UN also needs to make its structures more democratic to increase its credibility.

4.7 Actively promote democracy by existing democracies working with indigenous NGO's.

Yes, but some "indigenous" NGOs are externally funded agents of foreign powers. Too often the most visible official urban NGOs are chosen rather than informal rural grass-roots organizations. Work with NGO coordinating committees and Africa 2000 Network that coordinates among such committees…. NGOs - yes, but responsibility is not on the NGOs', but of the democratic government institutions…. If the NGOs have the ability, but NGOs are often  enemies in dictatorship conditions…. Excessive dependency on NGOs can reduce personal responsibility and create confusion between State and community responsibilities…. The relationships between the world community, international institutions and national NGOs and democratic oriented publics should take place not only in the political and economical fields, but also in the professional, human, cultural, ethical, and institutional development fields.  This would help to open the view on professional, human and political problems.... International organizations should work with national experts. It should be an open dialogue. To collaborate with democratic-oriented structures, it is important to have a relationship with the governments of dictatorship countries. International organizations have to focus on the political intellectual elite of society and the new generation, to improve relationships with governments. Very often international missions failed because of misunderstanding of cultural, religious, national specifics of the country…. Press freedom will lead to this. But strict watch on investigative journalism is necessary.  Responsive governments will evolve a public consensus over a period of time. NGOs like World Watch Institute should provide leadership.

4.8 Provide the kind of assistance that aids the transition from centrally planned economies to market economies that has proven effective in previously successful transitions.

Each society has its own traditions, religion, social psychology, culture, and history. The mechanisms of regulating norms of life, and model of economy, may function successfully in one country, but might not be appropriate for another one. Transformation and copying are different…. Generally this has been bilateral and World Bank capital.... Transitions have not proven successful. There are too many conditions now.  If they could have satisfied all the conditions, they would have not needed the assistance in the first place.... Also local specific policy should evolve from think tanks evaluating by trial and error…. The biggest effect was that two separate worlds came into normal contact. But theory and models of transition in most cases did not work.

4.9 Identify and make the public aware of the value and necessity of their own human and technical resources in the transition to a more democratic system.

Yes, modern concepts tend to deny old traditions. This can be implemented by publicity that reinforces transparent systems. Traditional wisdom is needed such as the temple in terms of Architecture and Siddha in medicine.  These insights should be recognized by research and by universities…. Danger of indoctrination - what does "more democratic system" mean? Does it mean necessarily "better system"?…. Yes, very important to identify people, creativity, health, and education from inner sources, not from e.g. World Bank.

4.10 Study and implement means for minimizing or eliminating corruption in government and business.

The international community is just beginning to address this.... UNU or some international body should begin by studying the US laws on corruption and see applications to other countries.... Include Transparency International. US needs to take more leadership. Use the WTO and trade agreements among countries to enforce anti-corruption measures.... How do you distinguish between one man's bribe and another man's finder's fee?.... Should UNICEF pay bribes to vaccinate villages?.... Corruption requires both government and private sector.... An enlightened public, educated by NGOs and a free press help transparent government evolve and politicians understand that they are accountable…. It is hard to believe that governments in dictatorial countries will introduce some methods to reduce corruption. Corruption is one of the methods of management in dictatorial regimes that pay inadequate salaries to officials…. Political parties should be independent, not dependent on business.

4.11 Find ways to smooth the transition to democracy and minimize the risks of instability, while understanding that democratization can be a complex, long-term process.

Maintain "safety nets" during the transition…. Sustainable development is the key to democracy in the developing world.  Hungry people do not care about democracy.... Although democratization is a very complicated process taking a long time, its realization cannot be put off to the distant future. If it was, current decision-makers might give up and new talent might not come forward to help…. Globalization has helped provide common standards, but the current strategy in Russia might destabilize the economic world.... Make people understand citizens' rule, roles of political parties, and that the military is accountability to civilians. Action 4.4 can help in this regard…. Policies should be seen as approximate solutions. Transition in Sierra Leone, West Africa may have been too fast.... More slogan than proposal for action…. Positive vision is important - in analogy to religion, the concept of freedom should go together with the concept of responsibility.

4.12 Expand NGO initiatives that focus on corruption.

Why not have them institute conferences on corruption?…. Good, not enough NGOs are working on this now.... It's very important for governments to understand the total impact or corruption.... Frank Vogal, Transparency International, and the International Chambers of Commerce are currently providing some leadership in this area…. There is no NGO for anti-corruption in my country. Public opinion should be created. "Lok Adalat" is a new experiment in India (Peoples Court in each place)…. People of integrity and values education are needed for this.

I do not believe very much in the effectiveness of NGOs in this field…. NGOs should co-ordinate with opinion makers such as investigative journalists and religious leaders…. Declare some strategic issue like environment for instance as "corruption free" where any attempt, threat, and/or damage should be considered a global issue to be dealt with through a global authority with real but limited powers.

Additional actions:

Super powers should not be dictators and should not promote their own economy alone…. I believe more in positive role of media (TV, radio, newspaper) than NGOs in this case…. The key that unlocks the door of democracy is participation rather than waiting for others to solve problems and the addition of women participating in decision making is crucial.

In Africa maybe we should force political leaders to retire to private business on their 25th birthday so that they are only in politics when they have new ideas, are enthusiastic, and have less time to become corrupt. On the other hand, consistency can pay off which can be lost in elections every four years.
 
5. Encouraging diversity and shared ethical values

Improved travel and communications technology plus population and economic growth have put more people and cultures in contact than ever before, forcing people to acknowledge the human diversity. As of 31 December 1996, 165 countries are party to the Declaration on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, adopted by the UN in 1963. Polycultural views are being created from shared beliefs and interests that enhance coexistence of proximate cultures and antagonists.... Global ethics are being debated and studied as never before. As incomes rise, people tend to look for more meaning in their lives, searching for new cultural experience, and tend to seek less materialistic values. Dialogues between and among religions, cultures, sciences, and philosophies are creating global goodwill through better understanding. What makes the "whole" is the diversity of its parts with an underlying unity. Ethnic diversity is a comparative advantage in a global economy and society. Diverse views from many cultures provide a greater range of insight to help manage in an increasingly complex world, while shared ethical values will be necessary for cooperation and stability.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

Variety is the spice of life. Biodiversity provides the foundation for food, health, and economic security. Love and understanding of diversity and pluralism is an absolute must for happy and healthy human societies. Globalization threatens diversity in the push to develop global ways to do things economically, technologically and politically. Species that survive are not those that are most successful at a particular point in time, but the ones that can successfully replicate themselves through the random introduction of diversity. The same ideas apply to social evolution.

In spite of all differences, worldwide, one thing is the same: peace and development is what people pursue…. While affirming human rights in the middle of all the political-economic globalization we much guard against the loss of the human person per se and the goals of human rights. Secularization as well as pathologies of religious needs may present the risk of subordinating human rights. We need to base human rights in the awareness that they are universal and interconnected with common ethical understanding such as those related to the human-environment relationships. We have the right to life support systems, but also the responsibility of environmental caretakers.

Ethical values are not limited to "man to man issues" to quote Albert Schweizer.  They extend to all the environmental imperatives of population, technology, and consumption. Developing shared meta-ethical values needs both a top-down approach and a bottom-up approach. The top-down approach consists of laws and moral edicts. The bottom-up approach consists of petitions, demonstrations and expressions of individual opinion. The civil rights movement for example needed both.

Ethical values need to come from below. Laws that echo individual moral sentiments are easy to enforce. But if laws codify values too soon then people resist. Values of the Rio declaration are not applied to indigenous people. Action in this area has to come from NGOs and individuals who are motivated…. Materialist market-orientation has undervalued the spiritual qualities of life.

Although there is much talk around the world about ethical values, it has little role in today's life. A general non-belief in ethics is causing anxiety and disorder. Things that are accepted as normal activities are destructive to today's and future societies.  More organized, international, and unbiased research should be conducted to create a better and more suitable environment for reentering values and ethics in human life... Rising incomes among the poorer regions lead to materialism; but as middle incomes rise people tend to be less materialistic.

There are three important factors to consider in ethnic conflicts: First, at the beginning of the century, there were ten empires. This grew to 25 before collapsing and spawning 100 nations. The UN charter was signed in 1945 by 51 nations.  Today there are 185. Empires ruled by fear to keep control.  Today no one fills the role to provide control. Second, there are three non-negotiable issues for ethnic groups: freedom to use one's own language; freedom of religion; and freedom to practice one's culture. There are 5,000 ethnic groups; not all want their own country, but they do want respect for these freedoms. Ethnic conflict occurs because one or more of these freedoms was taken away - and they can be taken away by the stroke of a pen. But issues like poverty cannot be changed with the stroke of a pen. Third, the post-Cold War world is not structured to deal with ethnic conflict. Between 1989 and 1992 there were 82 conflicts in which more than 1000 people were killed in one year - only three were nation-state wars. The UN Security Council, NATO, and other arrangements are structured to deal with nation-state wars and cannot abridge sovereignty. Previously, sovereignty was used to protect against invasion; now it is used to prevent outside forces from stopping internal killing.... Companies are increasingly asking for ethics/value-based workshops.

Values and the principles that underlie them are a priority. The MP findings could be utilized by organization consultants, the media, and values educators in regard to "life principles" for a new millennium…. We have made great progress since 1963, but much has yet to be achieved, especially for women and girls.

Many of the great cultures and civilizations are in developing countries, where the roots of ethics and values can be found. Instead of letting technology create culture-less societies, requiring the injection of values and ethics, we should keep the existing culture. When we talk about universal values and human rights, are we going to respect all cultures? Are we going to find similarities and combine them? What if they cannot be pulled together? Research needs to be done, rather than again designing some values that are incompatible with all that exist, and probably will exist.  Action 5.5 will be the most practical and effective.
Shared ethical values interpreted as a single universal, homogeneous ethical system shared by all leads to a dangerous lack of cultural diversity; hence, shared ethical values should include the tolerance involved in dealing with groups with a diverse sense of values as well.  The collapse of the Soviet Union meant that one of the largest experiments in social diversity had failed. This has reduced the diversity in human, social, and economic institutions. We should not be so presumptuous as to claim that democracy is the proper form of government for all people (as is implied in the opportunity number 4)…. In Italy today, Parliament is discussing the pre-political philosophical issues like the search for common humanism.

The death of Princes Diana and Mother Teresa spread compassion worldwide for a few days.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

5.1 Teach practical aspects in the relationship of human ecology to decision making in an increasingly global society, including the moral basis for decisions, the nature of risk, and dealing with uncertainty.

Yes, this is necessary for decision making and progresses in the world economy...Break this action into parts.  People do not understand the nature of risk. Human ecology as "valuable" to decision making, is a separate concept from risk…. Include historical background, cultural variation, and the mechanism of understanding.

5.2 Readjust school curricula to emphasize compassionate behavior and socially acceptable values such as tolerance and diversity.

Include a course on reconciliation.  There is little agreement on what it means, but the term has moved into the main stream... Corporations also want to be involved with community values to help make safer neighborhoods, which in turn reduces costs to business... Yes, but at the same time the "political correctness" is getting in the way of discipline in the classroom.  You can't teach compassion in an unruly school…. This view is related to the traditional view of ethics. We should improve the awareness and the capacity of extension, initiative and competition rather than patience.

5.3 Establish political priority for ensuring human rights and dignity.

People in different countries have different beliefs. Religious activities should be limited under the rule. The first thing for respecting human right is to respect the survival right…. This may require new laws, leadership from a UN agency, and NGOs working with countries... Mauritus has established an inter-religious committee that addresses this…. In some cases, upholding human rights in general can abolish them for specific individuals. Child labor is an example. Instead of discarding goods produced by child labor, impose 50% of child labor time for education. The root of the problem has to be understood. Receiving countries should provide the leadership to create a solution.

5.4 Increase funding for social marketing or public education that teaches tolerance and respect for diversity and equal rights.

If governments will not, then NGOs and intergovernmental organizations must lead...  Funding is not the issue; discipline and the ability to teach in classroom are the issues.

5.5 Establish global dialogues on human values and morals that continue over several decades over television, Internet, short-wave radio, interactive games, etc., to identify and acknowledge global ethics, encompassing responsible behavior and caring for others.

Conduct them with well-known and respected personalities... If governments will not, then NGOs and intergovernmental organizations must lead... Add local and regional as well as global.

5.6 Encourage philosophical pursuits that create terminology that communicates the strength of diversity in its underlying unity and ethical responsibilities to future generations.

It is very necessary, but it is questioned whether it can become a science or not.

5.7 Promote the use of development indicators that reflect social values and encourage social reform.

Yes, but so many items are indexed to current indicators like the CPI (Consumer Price Index) that it will take a Presidential Commission chaired by leading private sector executive to change.... The more you can quantify, the more effective you will be…. Due to the importance of culture in the process of economic development and scientific advance, a related evaluation system for the index should be designed.

5.8 Establish training courses in ethical behavior for managers and executives.

Have a person on the inside of an organization working with an NGO outside the organization to cooperate to change the organization through training in diversity and ethical values... Combine best of Western management and Eastern spiritual values and have this training conducted by NGOs... Many corporations are increasingly holding one or two day training retreats for both middle and senior management. Personnel usually resist at first, but appreciate it afterwards... People like Ted Turner (CNN) and Jack Welsh (GE) should organize the Manufacturers Association, Chambers of Commerce, and Bankers Associations to lead this.

5.9 Develop a "science" of global ethics and programs that encourage their adoption.

A special institution should be set up to formulate this action in UN…. Too ethereal…. Local diversity will have to be accommodated.

5.10 Pursue the acceptance of "intergenerational equity" as a major global value and legal principle.

Some expressions of this, like social security and housing, are increasingly being accepted around the world... Develop some case law and moot court examples for law courses.

5.11 Study and implement means for minimizing or eliminating corruption in government and business.

Initiated by NGOs but implemented by government... This requires truly independent groups who cannot be corrupted. It also requires juries of professional peers, not peer simply by citizenship and selected because they are the most ignorant... A good case study is the role of corruption in the Asian financial crisis…. Not possible to eliminate.  As old as man.

5.12 Focus on the common ethical values and oneness that underlies the human diversity.

Common values spread risks. Racism is not seeing the human oneness…. It should be advocated…. Culture can help to identify a single thread of connectedness.

5.13 Foster collaboration among the various inter-religious dialogues to increase the contributions of religion.

NGOs may be required to provide the leadership for this... Individuals in their company and religion have to persuade their leaders to act, then publicize their successes worldwide... This would require the Vatican or El Azhar to convene representatives from all the major religions to a globally televised religious summit…. Religion is a very confused issue that should be respected rather than compressed.

5.14 Get religious leaders to intervene when people are going to war in the name of religion, and say this is NOT what religion teaches.

Not all religions believe this... Some religions wage war against evil…. Religious leaders are also political because of insecurity. They cannot be neutral.

5.15 Conduct inter-religious studies to find the common moral values and attitudes acceptable to all cultures.

Study by itself will not help.  There has to be some major convocation hosted by the major religions and the UN...  UNECOSOC, UNESCO, or UNU should provide the leadership for this.

Additional actions:

Make genocide an exception to sovereignty by the Security Council. Current genocide treaties don't have anything to do with the Security Council... Relief agencies were created for short-term humanitarian aid. Today they continue their presence in countries like Somalia forced to decide who gets the food.  They don't have the field training in conflict resolution... "Conflict resolution statements" should be required like environmental impact statements by the World Bank prior to initiating projects.... Attitudes about ethnicity have to be addressed in local schools with local religious leadership, not simply with new laws. The US should clean its own house before preaching to others and end forced bussing that is tearing the US apart.

There is the need to go beyond coexistence towards the understanding of other values which may be acceptable but have first of all to be known and understood...We need to learn to respect each other at the State level.
How do we reconcile cultural diversity and globalization of values? By restraint - not allowing any particular set of values to have sole dominance and by restraint in the use of political, military and economic power.   A role for the Millennium Project and the UN is to promote dialogue around cultural values which will enable all of us to live together peacefully in a globalized world. That is, to address the issue of global governance. The Bruntland report is a very good policy model. The Millennium Project and the UN can also play an important role in conveying information to show that things can be changed. There is an important opportunity to provide people with high quality information that will assist them in making wise future orientated decisions.

The Sri Aurobindo World Center for Human Unity at Auroville in India is based on the principle that it belongs to humanity as-a-whole and that it will be a place of unending education and a youth that never ages. In 1952, the Mother of Sri Aurobindo Ashram wrote: "The unity of the human race can be achieved neither through uniformity nor through domination and subjugation. A synthetic organization of all nations, each once occupying its own place in accordance with its own genius can only offer enduring unification". For encouraging diversity and shared ethical values, we need to establish centers like Auroville all over the world.
Literacy promotion; Eastern sense of values should not be eroded by Western system; institution of family should be preserved. Respect to diverse cultural heritage is necessary.

 
6. Reducing the rate of population growth

Although human population is growing in dangerous proportions, the rate of growth is falling worldwide. Between 1954 and 1974 population grew at 1.9%, then dropped to 1.73 % between 1974-1994, and is expected to fall further to 1.35% between 1994 to 2014. The fertility rate fell from 4.9% in 1970 to 3.1% in 1992 and by 1998 it had fallen to 2.9%. These diminishing growth rates are associated with increased income, improved literacy, diminished infant mortality (dropped 50% in the last 50 years), empowerment of women, improved and inexpensive contraceptives with better distribution, and effective family planning programs. This knowledge can be used to create more effective programs that focus on those areas of the world where the rate remains high and where people can least afford to provide the necessities of life for a rapidly expanding population. The conventional view of reproduction will change with the increasing progress toward self-determination and economic autonomy of women (from victims to builders of alternative societies), future development and widespread availability of a chemical that permits the selection of a male or female child before conception, and the potential of essentially full control of genetics and biochemical processes of all living organisms.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

Too soon to declare victory.... Although population growth rate is falling, we cannot relax population control efforts because some 3 billion women will reach childbearing age (14-49) in the next generation, while only 1.8 billion will reach menopause over the same time span. Per capita consumption also is on the increase.

The diminished mortality in middle and old age groups in developing countries will not only accelerate population growth, it will change the labor force/old age ratio and increase dependency. We are not prepared for it - the systems to take care of the elderly are inadequate. This is not only true in the Third World, Japan is also not prepared...The elderly will continue to work as their health improves and volunteer, and this will displace some of the labor force.
AIDS is also likely to be a bigger problem than people yet realize, particularly in China. They announce officially that there are 5,000 cases in the country, but it's more likely to be 2 million, centered along the southern border... There are no easy solutions to the moral controversies over issues like selecting the sex of a child or cloning. All these 12 suggested actions are important and feasible.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

6.1 Perform R&D and introduce new long-term male and female contraceptives.

Implement the research on population and policy that has already been done and make current birth control methods safer…. The contraceptives should be 100% foolproof.  Even a low probability failure affects the credibility of the system.

6.2 Increase the level of social marketing programs that teach family planning.

Focus on men as well as women and the community as-a-whole…. Village leaders should be involved.

6.3 Establish coordinated global efforts and financial incentives directed toward increased contraceptive use (e.g. providing tax advantages to smaller families).

Also focus on increasing agricultural efficiencies so that larger families are not as needed to help on the farm.... Avoid punitive measures.  This was well documented in Chapter 7 from the UN conference in Cairo on population.  People will simply pay the fines to have children. Instead, address social development needs.

In developing countries only a small percentage are taxpayers.  Incentives like food, cash are there but still the program needs to be properly targeted by the family planning officers…. Not effective for poor people, who are not taxpayers, education is more important.

6.4 Grant greater access by women to credit and other economic and social resources; e.g. carry micro-entrepreneurship forward: extending small loans for self-employment to poor people to accelerate development of small-scale business.

This is increasingly being understood and implemented, even by the World Bank…. Accessibility has increased considerably, now focus on awareness of the programs and marketing skills.

6.5 Promote the self-determination and economic autonomy of women, (but taking care to operate within the permissible local socio-cultural and religio-moral norms and limits).

Focus on rural populations with radio and television shows that feature women who have become successful.... Special-training programs should be developed.... This is linked to 6.4. Government and NGOs should lead educational efforts, but government should help provide the minimum threshold of support. More effective and more important than pure business activities would be to strengthen women awareness and confidence in being independent and taking initiative…. NGOs should take the lead…. As women become more involved in the cash economy, birth rates decrease in big cities of poor countries…. Addresses the symptoms not the cause.

6.6 Actively seek religious dialogues on the changing roles of women and birth control.

Interfaith coalitions should lead and should not focus just on women, but on men, the family, and the community…. Use folk arts in the rural areas…. Religious leaders, government, and NGOs should collaborate.

6.7 Encourage widespread access by women to education, communication, and lifestyle awareness.

Oriented not just towards women, but to the family and access to technology that reduces the needs for large families.... Getting girls through elementary school is the strategy that positively affects all the other approaches. Elementary education should be a stand-alone goal.... Include vocational training for women.

6.8 Encourage health policies that diminish infant mortality.

Ensure the life of the first child and abolish the myth about the male child (especially in India).  Support government primary health centers for mothers and children. NGOs should lead public education about ethics…. Include and stress, the construction and equipping of maternity and pediatric hospitals and clinics and training of nurses…. Why is infant mortality still high in some countries? Government population policy is less important than achieving a stable political system with a growing economy.

6.9 Encourage land and other inheritance rights for women.

Laws are there, but not implementation…. Legal literacy is needed…. It is important to stress women's economic rights.... Pressure for change can come from UN conferences like the recent ones in Cairo and Beijing.  Bilateral diplomatic pressure and foreign assistance programs that help rewrite laws can help reinforce this.6.10 Support the worldwide women's movement aimed at freedom, equality of opportunity, and social justice for women.

Hillary Clinton has stressed that human rights are women's rights and women's rights are human rights. Rights are for all people. Governments can support but not lead such movements. These movements may have to be country-by-country keeping a local focus that can be reinforced by global influences like the Internet and UN conferences.
Create a media strategy…. Women study centers should evolve programs.

6.11 Encourage and initiate policies that protect the family with adequate benefits so that all can work.

Implement as a government partnership with community churches and social groups and develop legislation in the process.

6.12 Support equal pay for men and women who do equal work.

Law exists, but women's groups should provide leadership for the informal sector. Define the quality of work/ Hours of working…. Currently included in diplomatic human rights discussions.

Additional actions:

Currently women bear the burden of reproductive responsibility. This should be changed…. Males should equally share responsibility of population control. Change men's attitudes toward male contraceptives.
Instead of giving money to governments, which can lead to bribery and corruption, encourage corporations to work directly with people to solve social problems and create sustainable development.... Include adolescence - new cohort coming into childbearing age in description....  Define what do we mean by reproductive rights and how to implement them.... Legalization of abortion should be kept separate from the human rights issues.... Improve water supply and access to reduce infant mortality, which in term further reduces birth rates.
Advocating healthy and safe sexuality involves management improvement, change of traditional thinking and promotion of medical techniques…. UN and governments should have greater responsibility for these actions.
Create ways to increase gender sensitivity among men that lead to more women being involved in decision making.
 
 
7. Emerging strategies for world peace and security

Global visibility provided by news media and other worldwide communication sources reduces xenophobia and undue nationalism. The end of the Cold War, and the consequent nuclear weapons disarmament program, improvement in North-South relations, the reconciliation movement in South Africa, development of the EU and other regional arrangements, global satellite surveillance and media, and improving living standards for the majority are increasing the acceptance of an emerging peace paradigm - that is more than simply the absence of war, but is the state of secure conditions for the evolution of humanity.

The public world, including the developing world is living longer, is more literate, eats more calories, and has falling infant mortality rates. One billion children are enrolled in K-12 classrooms, up from 250 million in 1960; 2.7 billion adults are literate compared to 1 billion in 1960.  Changes in global frames of reference and philosophies (due in part to understanding of the interaction of population and economic growth with environmental degradation) give rise to the possibility of a new age of enlightenment. Many norms underpinning peace are widely accepted, such as territorial integrity; non-use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons; the immunity of civilian aircraft and ships; international obligation to help refugees; the inadmissibility of colonial rule; the unacceptability of officially sanctioned racial discrimination; the undeniable equality of woman; and human rights.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

There are a number of emerging trends that will permit us to build structures of peace. I agree with the optimistic thrust of the paragraph. However, increasing global communication and transparencies can stir up ethnic hatred as well as positive understanding. For example, there is a huge political Islamicist threat, but the media oversimplifies the reality of this issue. There is insufficient information on Islam and the international media has to be more responsible. We accept too easily the "world court of opinion". Even though there is increased calorie consumption, there are also serious threats of a massive lack of food resources. There has been more progress and environmental negotiators since the first Earth day 27 years ago to the Kyoto conference on climate change than any arms control and disarmament treaties.
Peace and security is linked with the global convergence of information and communications (Opportunity 9) and promising new space projects (Opportunity 14).  Once the space programs speed up, information technology will become more pervasive and enhance the prospects for peace…. Trust between leaders in opposing camps can be demonstrated via the media. Increasing living standards means people have more to lose. Increasing openness in democracy is also a force for peace.

Globalization of business and finance is the key force for peace. Unfortunately it is also responsible for sweatshops. Labor unions ought to globalize to address this. The resistance in the US to making the UN a more effective peace keeping operation dismays me. The U.S. does not want to pay its bills and participate in peace keeping. Mass culture is inimical to leadership. With all of our TV, movies, silly publications, there is no appetite today for real leaders…. Compare the percentage of people living in poverty with absolute levels to get the full picture. The middle class in India is nearly as large as the entire population of the United States, but India has 1 billion people, hence, the poor is still the majority in India. Since the norms underpinning peace are accepted, the price for their violation has increased.... The economic gaps can lead to social conflicts that will take a long time to recover.... Conflict resolution and ethnic conflicts are not mentioned in the description.

There were 35 civil wars during 1997. The international community is losing interest in helping solve these conflicts. Countries are closing their doors to refugees. There is an international convention for refugees, but no rules for internally displaced people…. The evolution of nationalism is not receiving proper attention and study. Increasing national identity helps development, but it can evolve into a nationalism that becomes fascism. We need some independent system of scanning nationalistic movements.... Any nationalistic movement has a negative impact on the society. Even if it does not reach the goal, it creates economical and social instability and tension.

I think the problems presented are not accurate. At present, the world peace is controlled by some big countries and groups, which can exert great influence on world economy and security. Military aggression is replaced by economic aggression. So I think, apart from the political and military equality in different countries, the equality should also exist in economic and environmental resources…. During the Cold War, a mutual restricted relationship was formed between the two camps. So far, the Cold War seemed to be over, but new pattern of the world is not established yet…. The heavy diet of war-based science fiction cartoons digested by children is worrying.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

7.1 Strengthen UN Secretariat early warning and monitoring system with indicators of peace and security that are transparent for cross-referencing by media, governments, NGOs, and the public, to increase the likelihood of connecting early warning with appropriate and timely action.

Integrating the media into the system might help to speed things up.... Very good idea to make the system transparent for media cross-referencing. Since early warning does not always get timely decisions and governments can manipulate information, the media (BBC, CNN, etc.) is required to put the pressure of world opinion on political leaders to act…. U-2 flights over Iraq were the first use of national intelligence assets by the United Nations Security Council. The Security Council knew all the early warning indicators in Rwanda, but there was still no action.

The early warning systems already exist - they are NGOs. The issue is how to get the political will to act on the early warnings. Automatically putting items on the Security Council agenda from an early warning system won't work if the political will is not there to make a decision. There were 3500 UN troops in Rwanda prior to the slaughter, but their mission was not changed by the Security Council to act.  If Belgrade had been bombed three years before the Dayton Accords, it would have stopped the war, but there was no political will to act.  Over the long-term, better education of leaders is the answer.
The UN is controlled by some big countries, so its role is exaggerated and some decisions made in the UN are suspect.

7.2 Identify troops to provide a rapid response capability for peacekeeping and building who have been trained together, with compatible equipment and communications, instead of a UN standing military.

This is much better than having a UN standing army.... This is desperately needed. Without peacekeeping forces, UNHCR cannot do its job. A 48-hours deployment is necessary as the training requirement…. Improve the UN's military communications equipment. 7.3 answers the first part of 7.2…. Actions 2 and 3 are meaningless until all member countries participate…. There are 48 countries that have agreed to designate troops under article 43 of the UN Charter, but the Security Council has not acted on it.

If we promoted a freestanding UN force [editor's note: this is not the same as action 7.2], resistance in the US to peacekeeping with its own troops might be diminished. This UN force would be sort of like the old French Foreign Legion, all volunteers. If there were a quick reaction force under the UN flag there would be less chance of genocide. It would be used also to restore civil order.
7.3 Encourage NATO-style pooling of military forces to cut down on defense expenditures and foster greater security interdependence among nations, promoting a sense of supra-national, if not global, identity.

This is fine and not a UN matter. Common memberships like the Nordic States is appropriate.... NATO seems to answer the question of how the UN mobilizes troops, improves communications, and creates successful coalition forces.

This should foster interdependence and trust among nations by providing standards of interoperability, doctrines and interfaces. There may be a (commercial supplier?) role for pooling of specialized resources (such as heavy airlift capacity).... NGOs must push UN and other providers of troops for monitoring and collective responsibility for the behavior of troops. Since UN and some nations do not punish their troops for abuses, then an international system will have to be identified to be responsible.
This may be a goal to achieve in 50 years.

7.4 Develop better techniques for non-violent conflict resolution, through, for example, studying successful interventions and reaching a better understanding of the dynamics of communications across cultural and language barriers.

Billions are spent on troops and next to nothing on the emotional healing that is necessary to pull out the troops…. The political department of the UN Secretariat should do much more about this. Problem is there are few similar situations. You should have a plan before going in, but be ready to throw it out once engaged in the situation…. If the UN and other international arrangements are not changed to address the current realities, then NGOs will begin to fill the void…. NGOs have to convince governments that they are not a threat and have governments invite them in for the social elements of peace building. Political elements can be led by organizations like OSCE for Bosnia.  Economic building by the World Bank, IMF, and bilateral donors.  But social building addresses the heart and needs for healing. This is better left to the NGOs to train the trainers who are the lights at the end of the tunnel.

Consider an interdependent two-team approach: Team l composed of people who aspire towards Ghandi-like consciousness and skilled in negotiations and non violent conflict approaches, and Team 2 composed of military or police enforcement personnel. Team 1 should also be related to action item 7.6…. World Bank's Peace and Development work needs to be linked more closely to the bank's policy process.... How do you pay for the interventions? See Carnegie study on "Preventing Deadly Conflict". Learn from the rapid and successful health intervention examples by CDC and WHO.... Conflict resolution approaches consider micro-level, cultural, religions and ethical roots.... Conflicts may differ, but it is possible to develop some common principles to find solutions.... Every nation should have a legislative base and mechanisms to solve this kind of conflicts.... Experts on human rights tend to see conflict resolution as short-term thinking, arguing that until human rights are addressed, conflict will continue.... The US is wrong with its Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA).

High-technology dominance is not viable. The non-violent processes are still maturing; the UK is ahead in developing them. These processes bring together many approaches including public awareness as an overall package of diplomacy.
Actions 4 and 5 are very important, particularly to some poor countries.

7.5 Increase support of software development for a compact multi-language translator; increasing mutual understanding among citizens around the world.

An exciting technical development.... The US National Security Agency has software that can do this now.  Could they make this available to the public?.... This could be dangerous, because mistranslated subtleties can make the situation worse…. English is becoming a world language. The assumption that a lack of common language is the route of conflicts may be false. Although English countries may decline, but English will not…. Spread English as a second language of commerce and computers

7.6 Establish an NGO network to monitor indicators of conflict and discuss and link strategies for rapid deployment of non-military resources.

NGO's representatives are perceived as more peaceful than Government's officials and as having more freedom to make judgements, but they should be in close communications with Government institutions...  NGO's representatives should have a special training and special tools for forecasting the conflict evolution.... The NGOs networks should be organized by regions for exploration and conflict scanning.... I prefer this to 7.1.... Also make early warning alerts from such networks automatically added to the Security Council's agenda.... Consult NGOs like the International Crisis Group of London that has 20 monitors of the Dayton Accord in Bosnia.

Government's interference in conflict resolution, especially at the first stage, could have a negative impact and make the problem more complicated. NGOs interference does not result in the same negative reactions…. Link local NGOS, international NGOs, and international organizations…. The role of the NGO is suspicious.
7.7 Insist that religious leaders intervene in conflicts with religious tensions saying that war is against the religion.

More have fought in the name of religion, than have stopped wars in the name of religion.... Some religions believe war is justifiable. Put pressure behind Islamic and Christian leaders who might move more effectively than the World Council of Churches. Give more media attention to leaders in peace making.... Agree, but ethnic rather than religious leaders need to publicly demonstrate trust in each other.... Religious leaders tend to deal only with their religions. We also need inter-religious dialogs among the top leaders…. How can you make sure they don't take sides?…. Religious plays a role in only certain regions.

7.8 Increase funding for social marketing or public education programs to promote tolerance and respect for diversity and equal rights.

Too many of these programs aim at people who are 17 or 18 years old.  That is too late. These courses should be aimed at people in elementary and middle school…. Effort should be worldwide, not just current areas of conflict…. Establish a global information and communications for the UN to provide a clearinghouse for the world to talk together. The Millennium Project could be an arm of that.  The UNU should become more active with a real Cyberspace University.

7.9 Create and implement educational programs at all levels that teach peace-related topics such as peaceful resolution of conflicts, compromise and consensus.

Yes, but keep a sense of perspective, competition is good to teach, but not conflict....  The President of the World Bank has pledged $2.5 billion to insure that every child completes six years of education by the year 2010…. Democratic processes are requiring indigenous leadership such as Welesa and Mandela. They interpret the needs of the society better than those from the outside do. Communications in this process is important but are means of communication only in the hands of one part of the world?

7.10 Tighten laws, regulations and inspections associated with security of nuclear, biological and chemical stocks.

When nuclear weapons were being developed, we did not know the consequences of radiation; today we do not know the consequences of biological stocks. Many products today are based on biological processes. The mass of biological stocks is increasing, which could provoke mutations. These problems will get worse.... We need a very tight regime for transferring, utilization, storing, and supervision of all these stocks. Since it is expensive, many countries will not do this properly, leading to unexpected and irremediable consequences.... A legislative base and an international convention with a minimum code of international standards should be developed and adopted…. Take punitive actions against those who do not respect the conventions.

Control, at an international level, should be provided by a UN organization.... Presumes world law. Tighten security with information and cyberspace.

I disagree, the laws and regulations are already tight.

7.11 Establish international criminal courts and tribunals with enforcement powers to punish those convicted of atrocious collective and communal violence.

This will help develop and focus world opinion about violence. Connect this International Criminal Court with an early warning system focusing on potential communal violence (see 7.12 below) and we will have an international system of analyzing and regulating violence. Extraordinarily important to do, but making sure all rights are taken into account makes the process more expensive than people think.... So important that it should be included in the paragraph description above.  Russia, China and US are slow to accept this.... Agree, but in the meantime apply sanctions now.

There is no minimum code for common international legislative base. Only an international Criminal Court can develop an independent international criminal code. It is possible to form a procedure of election of judges as well as to develop common judicial procedures.... Yes and include the UN department of political affairs in its creation…. Develop the World Court in The Hague further…. Consider how to prevent its causing disagreement among countries.

7.12 Establish international early warning systems focusing on potential and emerging crime threats.

Yes, but next you have to answer who should act on the information.... It is an easier problem than a problem of early warning about conflicts as a whole.
The UN might run countries in Africa and other weak nations through the trusteeship council. That mechanism could be used to salvage failing countries…. Sure, failed states lead to organized crime.

Most conflicts today are within nations. The UN can also address this with the international criminal courts. What are the rights of all nations? What about the global commons. Do we just let people kill Rwandans, the US pollute the earth, and Brazil cut down its rainforest?…. The role of international organization should be intensified.

7.13 Address new crime areas such as illegal waste disposal, theft of nuclear materials, human organs and arms traffic, and sabotage of information networks.

Apply sanctions now. Utilize the Internet and media to create a systematic alert system that lets individuals call in early warnings. Corruption worldwide is pervasive and imploding…. If one can afford it, why shouldn't one be able to buy the best medical treatment?

7.14 Deepen the development of the EU through a process of federalization of public policies (not only within pillar 1 but also within pillars 2 and 3).

Most said: Sure, without comment, but one said this was not relevant.

7.15 Enlarge NATO in parallel with enlargement of EU.

Disagree, NATO is already moving ahead of EU on this respect.... How is that part of the emerging peace strategy?

7.16 Encourage pluralism through the promotion of multi-polarity, detente, entente, and an intercultural religious dialog.

Yes.... A powerful opportunity, but it will happen anyway.

7.17 Improve public visibility of issues through establishment of global public access TV networks.

WETV is now in 30 countries, funded by seven aid agencies and private investors. <www.wetv.com>
How to pay for it? Maybe a new NGO?.... Add attention to the issue of the information gap by making a new UN agency to address this gap and have Bill Gates fund it…. Couldn't hurt, but would be difficult. Public access TV's programming is relatively stupid. There has to be a good mechanism to promote healthy funding and guidelines. It is the nature of broadcasting to compete with 30+ channels - too many channels - lots of feasibility problems.

If the UN got savvy about the media and communications (which it hasn't yet), a UN Channel on global issues, what the UN is doing, what the UN is accomplishing, etc., would be very effective…. The way to structure a good public access TV network would be to structure it like PBS in the US or have a UN Channel…. Very important to get those who are usually closed off from conventional television.

7.18 Promote peace research and studies of conflict resolution and consensus building.

The US has one Ph.D. and seven MA programs in conflict resolution as distinct from peace studies. The Canadians, Dutch, and Norwegians are also leading in this.  The World Bank has a new unit in preventive diplomacy and post-conflict reconstruction.... NGOs are making progress in this but universities are not contributing compared to their resources and potential….  Agree, but so what?

7.19 Centralization of police work (e. g. Europe) and the development of new police techniques.

International police are important.  In the military there are many spare troops, but there are no spare police…. Doesn't sound good. It raises my civil libertarian flag.
 

7.20 Introduction into military, police and terrorist arsenals of non-lethal weapons including aerosols that induce sleep and sticky foam.

With the right guidelines to prevent abuse, this is a very interesting possibility because non-lethal weapons offer the opportunity to stop a conflict without causing damage to the participants. Many different non-lethal weapons have been developed and produced, but inertia prevents the implementation of these weapons. They are not included in the training programs of military and police forces.... Distribute non-lethal weapons to the military arsenals, because the military's function is also to influence and prevent the mass disarrays and natural disasters. These weapons are very effective in the actions against terrorist when it is necessary to isolate terrorists as soon as possible. They provide the opportunity to localize a conflict in a timely manner. If these weapons would be used against terrorists, then terrorists would know that they would not have time for negotiations. It could influence a decrease in terrorism.... Yes, but one still has to be careful with them; rubber bullets have had their problems.

7.21 Accelerate reduction in arms R&D, production, stockpiling, trade, and military personnel.

Agree, except that nations supporting 7.2 and 7.3 will need to increase some resources and the role of these needs to be broadened to include disaster relief.... "Generals always prepare for the last war." Increase conversion of military weapons to peaceful uses and make new weapons conform to current and potential situations…. This is a top priority; there is still much to be done.

Imbalance should be considered; the developing countries should learn how to protect themselves first.... 60% of arms trade is from four members of the UN Security Council.

7.22 Increase the size of the UN Security Council.

There is no way to work out the political problems…. Yes, but we have to change the UN rules so that regional organizations like the EU and Mercosur can be on the Security Council to reflect the current realities…. Although adding regional organizations will resolve some political issues (such as Mercosur working to resolve the problem of the Argentina vs. Brazil seat) would require changing the UN charter - that is based on nation-state members, add regional organizations .... Adding more will not help…. Need much caution and much discussion.

7.23 Accelerate efforts to convert military technology to civilian uses.

Developed countries should undertake relatively more obligations including the reduction of military and nuclear weapons and environmental protection and resources conservation.

Additional actions:

Add international accountability, impunity, and mechanisms for adjudicating disputes and massive abuse of human rights…. Since strategies for eradication of poverty are strategies towards security, make a new international convention to increase humanitarian and financial assistance to undeveloped areas…. A global strategy rather than ad-hoc measures is needed…. Implement a rapid deployment humanitarian peacekeeping capability funded by insurance premiums paid by countries wishing to redeploy military budgets to civilian sector.

 
8. Developing alternative sources of energy

Alternative sources of energy that do not rely on fossil fuels have been proposed and demonstrated; these include photovoltaic solar cells, solar thermal energy, geothermal energy, wind power, biomass, ocean thermal differential, fuel cells, fusion, and solar power satellites. A few of these systems are being employed commercially; those that are contribute little to the energy supply, but are growing.  Global wind power contributes 1% of the world's electric production and its generating capacity is currently growing 33% annually; photovoltaic sales are growing 17% annually and the price per watt is falling.  International development agencies are increasing support for alternative sources. In response to global warming research, British Petroleum and Shell have announced support for alternative sources of energy and other environmentally-oriented policies.  Progress in earth to orbit hypersonics and related technologies will facilitate the development of solar power satellites and other space-based technologies useful for long-term sustainability.

Since the burning of fossil fuels contributes greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and nuclear plants carry problems of their own, there are good reasons to pursue sources of energy that do not require burning or fission. Global carbon emission from the burning of fossil fuels have more than tripled since 1960. As poorer countries build their economies, fossil fuel use will certainly rise. Over the next 15 years China will have to increase the supply of energy for an added population equivalent to the current European Union. In 1995, per capita emissions in India were .3 tons per capita; by contrast in the United States, emissions were more than 15 times greater. Yet India's population and income per capita will grow in similar proportion to China's, increasing their contribution to greenhouse gases. Since oil production continues to rise and prices remain comparatively low, research and development expenditures for new systems also continue to be low. Many people believe that research and development will be inhibited as long as the new systems do not produce power at prices less than conventional systems; nevertheless, advances in alternative energy sources and applications are growing.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

Use of alternative energy sources will increase as the public's interest in the environment increases, the costs of petroleum and natural gases rise, and R& D brings down the cost of alternative energy sources…. All the actions are good…. Conventional sources have a lot of subsidies. If total cost is considered, then renewable energy sources are competitive with conventional sources - especially including environmental costs.

R&D programs should be better coordinated and focused on lowering carbon emissions, lowering costs, and increasing efficiencies. Nuclear energy cannot have a role due to the increased costs related to safety and waste disposal. We should concentrate on geothermal, wind, solar, biomass, and hydroelectric sources all of which have developed in the last 10 to 15 years. Photovoltaic sources present difficulties. Finland has developed a small portable solar energy kit.... We need to solve the nuclear waste problem including aging Russian nuclear submarines that threaten everyone.... Add hydro-electricity and tidal energy.

Electricity companies have subsidiaries researching this, but it is still a marginal element of current and foreseeable energy requirements. So renewable energy is not relevant to the developing world. They will continue to develop coal and gas, which are in abundant supply; and much cheaper. More important, but not mentioned in the question is clean coal technology (e.g. combined cycle) - though it is not yet financially viable. The first expansion will be in fossil-fueled power, so research should be directed to this…. It doesn't mention hydroelectric (such as the Yangtse) which can be green and is important. The description reflects the views of the ‘deep greens' who are a Western phenomenon, and are against any development, but who are accordingly nowhere to be seen in developing countries…. It doesn't mention fusion power, which could be the ultimate solution, or nuclear energy (France even exports large amounts of power from their plants) which still has a role.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

8.1 Offer large monetary incentives for breakthroughs in commercially competitive alternative energy supply systems.

The prize is provided by the free market! On the other hand, no ‘government' prize could be large enough - $10 billion?…. Give a prize for solving the nuclear waste problem. This has not been handled well.

Competitiveness should be considered in the context of total cost. Breakthroughs in conservation of energy should also be included.  Create a new UN organization for energy…. Spotting the right persons and helping them to file a patent will make it more effective.

8.2 Implement a full-cost accounting for external and environmental impacts in energy pricing.

Very important, but requires a counter lobby to the conventional energy sources…. There are also difficulties in matching pricing with environmental costs regionally. Global summits on energy can help. Energy prices consensus should be evolved.

It will be different for countries like China…. Absolutely right - but how do you do it? The landfill tax showed the problems: they produce 4% of UK waste and are having difficulty agreeing what it means! Trying to calculate ‘external costs' in general is very hit and miss. Energy is just one part. Carbon seems easy to tax but nobody can make work. Discounting future benefits is very debatable - future conditions can be changed out of all recognition by small changes in the discount rates…. This is a political issue. The states and power companies are arrogant and less than candid.

8.3 Pursue an effective and coordinated energy R&D program, not only to provide alternative sources of energy and energy storage, but to extend the duration of non-renewable energy resources. This program should be initiated even if the prices of current energy sources remain low.

Agree - but UN needs to lead… Who will do this? Governments are not good at identifying winners and losers…. This is overselling. Remember when nuclear energy was promised as being "too cheap to meter".... What they said was that nuclear power would be so inexpensive that it could be essentially free…. Include energy conservation.  Energy audit procedures are needed.

8.4 Initiate ecological and energy taxes to create disincentives for inappropriate energy use and tax incentives for less polluting alternative energy sources. Consider all stage of the process involved: extraction, production, distribution and consumption.

Include a tax for the extraction and the use of fossil fuels...Implement in such as way as to encourage integrated utilization of energy... How do you decide the correct impact and inappropriate uses? Desirable only if 8.2 works.  Taxes and incentives are not very applicable. Speed permissions to construct energy efficient houses.

8. 5 Implement relevant sections of Agenda 21 to alternative energy production

Chinese considers this very important and has just published its "China Agenda 21" Plans that have been formulated by sectors and provinces… People are happy with theory but do not support the practice when it costs them…. Obsolete technology should not be dumped on developing countries.

8.6 Eliminate all trade tariffs and taxes on alternative energy-related goods to encourage their international distribution and use.

OK, it makes no sense to tax renewable approaches, but it is marginal in practice. On the other hand, subsidies on coal (as in Germany), which are important distortions, should be removed.

8.7 Continue to encourage international cooperation in peaceful space projects, particularly solar power satellites and other space-based technologies necessary for long-term sustainability.

8.8 Consider policies that permit oil production to continue to rise while prices remain low; these policies will provide time for alternative energy R&D and economic development in the poorer regions of the world.

It should be noted that a large amount of oil is stored in many developed countries for future use, which makes the shortage of the resources in developing countries more serious…. Time frame should allow for smooth merger to alternate energy technology…. Energy R&D is initiated only when prices get high enough to justify alternative sources.

Additional actions:

Reduce the $750 billion of government subsidies for wasteful and polluting fossil fuel technologies…. Establish an Environmental Security Council as a parallel organization to the UN Security Council, which focuses human conflict…. Create the World Energy Organization for coordination of research and assistance in implementing policies. It might create research centers as needed and prevent parallel expenditures. With proper goals and duties, and nations as members under the UN auspices, it will be more successful. UNESCO has started a program, but it does not have enough authority.

An international organization should continuously promote and disseminate updated information on technology that produces energy from alternative sources.... The leading nations should be brought together by the UN to invest in development of renewable energy sources, otherwise their voters will choose selfish solutions. Education, in particular, should be used to appeal to young idealistic groups.

Additional comments:

If one looks 100 years into the future, nuclear is the most likely source to be developed. All we've seen so far are first generation plants. Many new designs for second or third generation passively safe reactors (vs. human intervention to manage) for fission reactors have been conceived, but there is little money and leadership to development them. For the new designs to come into use, we will need education that increases the understanding of nuclear power. Nuclear reactor technology has had a bad reputation, because the present power plant designs are primitive. The alternative systems described are highly speculative and none will provide the energy needed in the next century.

Lead-time for second or third generation fission nuclear plants is long, 20 years or so. There is only a minor possibility of retrofitting today's first generation plants. There is one proposal for the use of thorium to replace the uranium fuel core in light water reactors. A company in the US is working with a Russian group to demonstrate this. The new core might be tested by 2005. A significant rise in fossil fuel prices might re-create interest in fission reactors. Fossil fuels also have to be used in pharmaceuticals and plastics.

If these newly designed plants were to be introduced, nuclear technology would spread. This will require new ironclad safeguards against the use of the technology or materials in weapons applications. One approach proposed by the US in 1946 was to put all nuclear technology under the UN. The US was willing to turn over all of its nuclear technology, from mines to generating plants, to create a UN nuclear enterprise. The Soviet Union rejected the idea. Is it practical to think about returning to that concept? The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) might be given the power to police. It has such power today in Iraq.

9. Globalizing the convergence of information and communications technologies

The Internet and its related information and communications technologies have grown faster than any other technology in history. Interactive cyberspace has become an important new and unprecedented medium for civilization and is evolving towards becoming a global brain and nervous system for humanity. Individuals cross political boundaries electronically, making new alliances unknown to traditional power. More than any previous technology, the Internet promises to give equal access to rich and poor as prices for computers, software, and telecommunications continue to fall and their capacity and ease of use continues to improve. The percent of non-English Internet sites have grown from 2 to 18 % in the last three years.

The UN Commission for Africa expects all 53 African countries to have full Internet access by the year 2000.  By the same year, the Internet Society expects that 187 million hosts will be connected worldwide with 2 million networks outside the U.S. and 2.5 billion users.  This will create more traffic than voice telephone.  The Internet represents one of the most powerful mechanisms of change in the world, affecting everything from science and religion to politics and culture. For developing countries, the Internet possesses the potential means to accelerate economic development, provide greater and faster access to the world's knowledge, and become the medium for participating in the world's economy. Information technology is eliminating some of the blindness about global issues, facilitating self-education about personal health problems, providing live information on what's happening with such technological efforts as the Mars Lander, and creating community for the homebound. Old one-way media tended to be conflict-oriented - where do we disagree; new interactive media tends to be cooperation-oriented. The new media distribute the wealth of information more democratically than previous systems.
Electronic money will facilitate more secure commerce on the Internet allowing instant global delivery of many services. International financial transfers per day are more than the annual GDP of the United States. The synergy of telematics and micro-genetics will be a basis for a major jump in evolution. The robotization of dangerous and dull work is increasing in surgery, security, health care, space, mining, laboratory, and fast food. Tele-citizens from poorer countries working in richer ones can help their original countries as tele-volunteers to the development process. The development of artificial intelligence and its merger with communications will make knowledge tailored to the individual's timely medical, financial, and other needs. Compact multi-language translators will facilitate communications among different language groups, possibly reducing greenhouse gases from transportation systems by reducing travel. This technological global convergence is creating the planetary "nervous system" necessary for improving the prospects for humanity.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

There are several global convergences happening at once: humans and technology, computers and communications, networks and operations, a range of services from financial to education, and voice-data-video-graphics. The ways to access Internet are increasing: WebTV, cable modems, mobile satellite phones, and new combinations to split reception from transmission (like direct satellite or cable for reception of graphics requiring much bandwidth with telephone for the transmission of commands requiring low bandwidth).

Terminals will continue to be smaller, more mobile, and integrated with other services. Submarine cables competed successfully with previous generation satellites for transoceanic communications, but the next generation low-orbit mini satellites with high bandwidth capacity signals the next round of growth for the satellite industry. This will increase tele-work in all forms from high tech manufacturing in poor regions to tele-medicine, which in turn will further increase the demand for high-speed real-time communications that lets people work anywhere.

It is helping to harmonize standards and humanity in general…. About 65% of the world do not have a telephone. This tele-gap could be leap-frogged by various forms of direct satellite communications, since wiring the rest of the world might prove more costly. Intermediary organizations could fill the gap like schools, hospitals, general stores, agricultural stations, small business associations that can get connected by Internet for the people living in poorer regions.

There are more telephones in Tokyo than in all of Africa. Although all countries in Africa may be connected to Internet by 2000, few people will have Internet access due to little infrastructure. Yes, they can use mobile telephone system without infrastructure, but it would cost much…. This is too optimistic in terms of where we are now and our getting there by the year 2000. African access is utopic…. The information/communication technology will increase the gap between rich and poor. The price of the computer may fall, but people still need to "buy" and "pay".  The gap between computer literacy and illiteracy will increase; even among computer literate, the gap in capability would increase.

Non-English native speakers have disadvantage in Internet. I personally believe that Japan should use English as a second mother language…. Although equal access does not yet exist, it has the inherent potential for fairness.  Speed of computers fused with telecommunications capacity has operationalized the term "global." This convergence of technology has made new forms of research, distance education, and global marketing possible. We can have live coverage of Arctic explorers or robots on Mars.

The development of the mind is the central change, opening new interests in philosophy and ethics.....Too much information can make children unmanageable making the current generation gap more extreme.  Previous automation replaced physical strength and labor, now automation is replacing knowledge and judgements. Things are moving too fast to say that the world was Euro-centered, is US-centered, and will be Asian-centered.  Instead it will be global-centered after the US model.... It also allows for new forms of money from frequent flyer miles to community service dollars on credit cards that keep track of both conventional money and alternative currencies.... Any non-thinking repetitive purchases like toilet paper could be relegated to the computer, while conscious selection of fruit could still be bought at the grocery store in person. It increases the ability of lobbies to form.

Internet needed a monopoly to make it work, but now that it is established the monopoly maybe be broken. Yet to continue to improve standard protocol and make them acceptable worldwide, monopoly seems necessary…. The US uses laws to protect privacy of credit, education, and medical information. Europe has government information officials to guard privacy. The US is very intellectual property rights oriented, whereas Europe is very human rights oriented: intellectual property is the right of all.

The amount of information technology access described in the paragraph above would require sacrifices on privacy, which is not possible by the year 2000. If public policy does not properly address people's right to privacy, then society will try to block the growth of information technology.

International business consortiums are creating rules and selling them to their governments. This may be the strategy that sets the legal structure over the next 5 to 10 years. Keep an eye on the balance between security and corruption.
There was a time when we thought the TV was going to be educational - but for the most part, it is a vast wasteland.

The real issue with Internet is the content. We can't rely on self-organization for an educational and cultured Internet. Focus on structuring the content for quality and for learning. All leaders agree that education is of prime importance to development - the Internet is a golden opportunity to this end. I'd hate to see it become a vast wasteland like TV has become. We regulate TV in Canada to prevent our being inundated with US programs. Four Canadian broadcast channels are required and no cable system can carry more US channels than Canadian channels.

Canada focuses more on access than on blocking content as a way to prevent Internet from becoming a medium for conflict, passionate nationalism, and the loss of local culture.
The cyberian geography of time and space intersects in multi-dimensional personal participation. This new reality makes action, reaction, and exchange seem instantaneous, fundamentally changing consciousness and culture.

The planetary nervous system is a challenging and fascinating idea but not that easy to realize. In any case the planetary nervous system can be only considered an instrument and not an end in itself.

The information technology developed very fast and played a significant role in the international exchange. We have got a deep feeling of it from our past work in the framework of UNESCO's "Man and the Biosphere" program. There is an information network of 352 natural reserves in more than 80 countries, which greatly promotes this work.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

9.1 Make Internet access a right of citizenship.

The right to education and access to public libraries are current rights of citizenship. Internet access is simply an extension of those rights.... Good action, but in many countries, it is a financial problem. But, step by step, society is moving in these directions. It is another culture and it takes time to become a way of life.... When such a right is given by somebody without any efforts, it may not work effectively. I am afraid that the similar situation to Japanese democracy would happen. As democracy was given to Japanese society by US, Japanese people don't understand the true meaning of democracy. Therefore, true democracy was not developed in Japan.

Make a law that access cannot be denied. Providers of Internet services should also have the right to peer point access and transcontinental access across networks…. Capacity will have to keep ahead of demand and alternative means of access should be provided…. Does it mean everyone owns a terminal like the Minitel model in France or does it mean access to public terminals? Our corporation gave Internet access to unemployed in Bristol, UK with just half a day of training. A significant number of then got jobs.... Access does not depend upon documentation, things change too fast, but on peer group support.

There is your cybercitizen!…. The right of literacy should precede Internet access as a right of citizenship. Internet access presumes educated people. Internet is just one part of the information infrastructure. Let's get close to 100% literacy first. What happens to the uneducated in an information society?

Connection between right and laws should be defined…. Developed countries should provide the information technology for developing countries and help with freetraining, lowprice, volunteer services, technology transfer etc. UN and other international organizations can coordinate this work…. The UN should be responsible for it.

9.2 Initiate a global computer recycling upgrade program to get the price down to $100 per unit containing basic education software commercially sponsored.

OK for young people and schools, but not for professionals. Professionals need software compatibility with current equipment. Since the PC capacity is increasing so fast and price is falling so fast, price savings will be too small to justify associated problems on international incompatibility for professionals.  We never recycled calculators to the developing world because the next generation was better and cost less… WebTV in the US is now within the $300 range.... Good, this will help the world have a common way of thinking.

It is cheaper to supply new equipment for public access. Training will be the major cost. For public access only a browser is needed. Unworkable and the technology industry itself is constantly driving down the price. The marketplace will take us there.

9.3 End national telecommunication monopolies; open markets for more than one provider of information/communications technology so that infrastructure requirements are anticipated and provided at reasonable prices.

This is happening rapidly....  If government regulation is good, then this will work; if government regulations are poor, than it could lead to chaos. Acceptance of mobile voice satellite communications will continue to open the telecommunications monopolies in the developing world. Some international organization should provide leadership.
This is the global trend. Different companies provide different services (cellular phone companies are different from Internet service providers). However, this deregulation will also increase horizontal mergers among these companies: Internet providers with telephone companies and cellular phone companies with satellite companies.

National telecommunication monopoly is effective until the diffusion of telephone exceeds 10%. After that, the network can spread without subsidy. In the very beginning, subsidies and protections are needed.
Agree - but economics not technology will limit…. We are doing it in Canada. The WTO agreements will evolve…. Yes! This is happening now with the WTO agreements. Half the world does not have telephone because of monopolies. The end of monopoly inevitable. 69 countries have signed the WTO agreement to end monopolies.

It is necessary.... The government should take the responsibility…. In addition, some international organizations such as WTO, should help developing countries to avoid the old pace of industrialization.

9.4 Find incentives for private sector to provide education and training in this technology.

Training can be imbedded in consumer products and the products can be more user-friendly requiring less training. Screen phones can get 80% of the Internet by simply touching the screen.  Professional systems will have greater training requirements.  Those companies that do a better job of training support will earn more than those who don't…. Many in the private sector are in distance education in areas only found in universities previously.  Private sector could freely distribute CD-ROMs with label showing government approval as a marketing strategy…. Our corporation helped small companies begin trading on Internet.  Since small companies have little or no investment in conventional distribution channels, they changed their business practices quickly…. There is little private sector in developing counties; hence, government may have to be responsible for it.

9.5 Accelerate international development organizations' efforts in training and applications.

This is increasing and IDRC is a leader…. UNESCO could support "bare foot" computer teachers for the youth who learn fast…. The World Bank created the concept of a "Knowledge Bank" as kiosks of information accumulated from the various UN agencies linked together. In the past leaders don't want to share knowledge; the World Bank says, "lets put knowledge in the hands of everyone".

The international community has done already some work on the training of disaster reduction.... Developed countries should provide the information technology for developing countries and help with free-training, low-price, volunteer services, technology transfer etc. UN and other international organizations can coordinate this work.

9.6 Regulate the content and use of international networks as little as possible while promoting the use of software that blocks reception via Internet of offensive materials.

The issue is access and building into software , not regulating content. Also promote quality. Correct, Internet is too large to manage…. You can control peoples' reception of information from servers and you can control peoples' access to servers, but you cannot control peoples' communications with each other…. A society has a right to say, "not on my screen", through democratic processes rather than executive orders of an authoritarian regime.  Just as there should be proper driving ethics on roads, so too there should be proper information interchange ethics on the global information highway (Cyberethics).

This could be a case for a new form of liability as a deterrence…. Should emphasize the role of adjustment…. Some regulations have been done. The UN should lead.

9.7 Support efforts to create software for compact multi-language translator; increasing mutual understanding among citizens around the world.

UNU is funding this now…. Several Japanese companies are working on this.... We have started working on it now and hope for support from the Japanese Ministry of Education…. This is especially good for a bilingual country like Canada…. Maybe more likely than machine language translation is a simplified global English…. It will come on its own; hence, no need to support it.

It is necessary, but the developed countries should provide more support to the developing countries.... Governments should give support...The UN, governments and NGOs should lead.

9.8 Strengthen intellectual property rights and suitable enforcement mechanisms to encourage development of information technology products that can be marketed in developing countries.

Not possible and contradicts action 9.6…. This is the most sensitive subject in the information technology world today and it is extremely difficult to enforce. There are no solutions in sight…. Since materials have to be copied at some stage and "watermarks" can be removed, it is not possible to protect intellectual property rights.  Instead we need new models for making money. Publishers need to change…. Current idea of Intellectual Property is based on a value in Industrial age. Good ideas should be shared with many people. Look at the free-software or shareware phenomena. For me, it is important to have honor, not money.

If I developed an excellent idea, I would like people to remember that the developer is me, but I would not charge…. We should protect the right of inventors, and give certain priority to developing countries…. LDC countries should also create their own copyright systems…. The idea of information rights should be developed instead of proprietary rights. The concept of information rights should include universal benefits for humanity…. The UN should lead.

9.9 Study and understand the consequences of the emergence of "SuperNets" (Intranets) which link companies of an industry into a closed trading, on-line cooperative.

About a third of all international trade is within multinational companies…. As Intranets spread and continue to be linked to each other, there probably won't be an Internet in future.  Instead there would be a set of documented services via Intranets.  The "Club model" is where the action is. Everyone will need a universal identity card, which gives access to all the services you have bought…. The development of company networks is a good thing, but you want to avoid another form of corporate monopoly…. For secret businesses, some important institutions and advanced technology, the use of intranet is necessary.

Who pays for the electronic commerce on the Internet? Infrastructure? If the world trades on the net, and lets say we have a lot of supranets - then we might go back ultimately to - trade that is not free - restricted to supernets. Like "Supranet Trading Blocs" Could end up having trade barriers due to development of supernet.

9.10 Promote international electronic commerce through organizations such as UN, WTO, and the World Bank.

Electronic commerce is the key to success in the foreseeable future. It can be promoted by the World Bank and others, but its growth will be driven by virtual or cyber shops that the general public can use to order personal items like wine and airplane tickets. Consumers get better and more detailed information on products via shops on Internet than they do in regular shops. Since exchange rates fluctuate and cultures relate differently to money, we need harmonization of international standards for electronic commerce.

That's happening. The ITU too! The OECD is also very active in this. And the European Commission. There is a model code - the UN Commission on International Trade Law. Also there is UNCTAD…. Good, but unlikely because these systems do not look at the business system as a whole.

It is functioning gradually… it is all right, but should be adapted to the conditions of different countries. One of the most important aspects, especially in the developing countries, is the contradiction between labor and high technology.

9.11 Promote tele-citizens: people from poorer nations who live and work in richer nations who help develop their original countries via volunteer telecommuting.

It is very significant, and the original country should be aware of the importance of using these resources.
should be encouraged…. The idea is good and feasible. The work was begun in some places. The UN should lead…. Good idea, but only a small percent of the professionals overseas would volunteer…. What are the responsibilities of a tele-citizen?…. More and more people are seeing themselves as international people, global citizens and many great innovations have been created by people who view themselves this way.
Reverse tele-citizens exist in India and China who work for software companies at a tenth of the cost of their western counter parts.  Many more could be employed, but employers don't want to be seen as exporting jobs. This is an unrecognized for of protectionism. India creates more computer scientists each year than US; western software industry will be displaced by 2010…. Avoid creating an electronic Victorian British Empire…. Countries themselves have to develop their own ways.

9.12 Create low-cost hand-held computers with direct satellite access for low income regions to access educational software and telephony with elementary literacy as a first priority.

This is a key technology. The target price will be a few hundred dollars per unit. It is a much better decision to put "fiber in the sky" than string copper wires to the rural poor in developing countries with difficult terrain. There are six or seven big projects racing to create the satellite networks to support this technology…. Once all this is put up, distance will mean nothing…. Will happen more and more with many applications in agriculture and health.

Countries should create their own ways of educating their people, while keeping global communication as a tool.

9.13 Create an ongoing forum to freely explore the potentials of emerging world cyberspace.

The Millennium Project, World Future Society, and the Club of Rome are that now. Internet is its own forum and democratic pluralism will flourish in this environment…. Many are exploring that now; no need for more…. It's called Internet!…. Yes, our commission is doing that for our country and proves a model for other countries and regions.

Additional actions:

Develop content-related standards, graphics, and objectives for Internet to make it less confusing for users…. Specify the ends to be achieved by the actions…. The idea of cyber city needs to be approached by the UN. We ought to shape our environment by using new architectural electronic environments to bring people together…. The answers may be found in technologies yet to be fielded. Promote competition... give people alternatives...and the people will collectively regulate the providers…. Maintain the emphasis on the broad goals (e.g. increasing understanding, improving literacy, providing open forums etc); but decrease the emphasis on regulatory aspects (regulation, enforcement etc) - these regulatory aspects are probably not achievable any way - except in the most extreme cases...Model successful projects and make the information available…. Millennium Project might become an advance point for a huge social and economic learning utilizing UN information and virtual world in cyberspace.

Develop a new kind of educational system using this technology to augment other systems.  Students should not replace the use of an encyclopedia, but complement its use by Internet…. Such innovation may be stimulated by increasing competition among Japanese education businesses due to the falling number of students…. Take technology of network progresses into consideration in planning.
 
10. Increasing advances in biotechnology

The biotechnology frontier, especially developments in the field of genetics, promises - and to some degree has already achieved - a revolution in agriculture and human health care. Between 1987 and 1996 there were 45,085 biotechnology patents registered in the US. By providing the means to develop plant species that are more diseases and pest-resistant, more tolerant of drought, and able to grow during extended periods, these technologies will very likely provide future increases in agricultural productivity. So far these techniques have not added much to the world food production; recent growth has come primarily from increasing acreage in production, in response to higher grain prices. However, further expansion of productive land is limited, and the increased application of fertilizer appears to be reaching a point of diminishing returns. Therefore, increased agricultural productivity from this new field could be essential to feed the growing population.

The mapping of human and plant genomes, a process already well underway, will provide greatly increased knowledge of genetic processes and, to some extent, information about how to control them. For humans, this will provide the means to deal with diseases that have genetic origins or result from malfunctioning of genetic material in the body. These diseases include potentially: cancer, cystic fibrosis, Gaucher's, hemophilia, rheumatoid arthritis, AIDS, hypercholesterolemia, and many others. Furthermore, genome analysis of an individual can indicate propensity to diseases whose symptoms have not yet been manifested. Scientists believe that many psychological and behavioral attributes can be genetically controlled and therefore subject to diagnosis and eventually, for aberrant conditions, corrected. Such uses of this technology, of course, raise serious social and ethical questions that must be considered. Other applications of biotechnology might produce novel protein for food replacing meat, stimulate awareness and evaluation of microbial threats (including archaea, ancient bacteria, being perhaps more adaptable and potentially hazardous than was previously thought), and creation of plantations to produce and distribute biological products in the ocean. The process of cloning was perfected; evidence by the fact that in 1997 a sheep was sucessfuly cloned in Scotland. Hence, biotechnology could eventually eliminate food shortages, improve health, and extend life expectancy.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

The next century is the biological century. In addition to making plants more productive on diminishing agricultural land, agricultural genetics will also redefine what land is productive. As new plant strains are developed that allow marginal lands to accommodate agriculture, the land area in the world that is engaged in farming may grow. In addition to sources of food, biotechnology in animal husbandry will also provide animals that serve as production factories for human pharmaceuticals. Cows will be seen as bio-reactors, making valuable products. The human gene for insulin or clotting factor, for example, can be inserted into the germ plasma of cattle and sheep at a genetic location that leads to easy harvesting of the desired human chemical: in urine, blood or milk. Cloning these animals then makes available large quantities of drugs that today may be more valuable than platinum or gold. In other words, feed the cow (bio-reactor) hay and water, and get pharmaceuticals. The farmer of the future may be a biologist.

Gene technology and clone technology can create new biological species, create a revolution in the industry, decrease the starvation of the globe and improve the condition of the developing countries…. A hybrid goat was developed that contained human genetic material linked to a goat's mammary gland so that when the goat was milked, it yielded large quantities of the human chemical. This is now in Phase III trials with an animal model for producing human pharmaceuticals. Some researchers today are using the bladder, so that the desired human products are contained in the urine of the genetically modified animals. These approaches draw a lot of criticism at first and than public learns more and acceptance follows.

Animals have been bred for various purposes for a long while. Genetic technology would be a very efficient process for developing animals with selected properties. Of course practicing eugenic development of animal herds using genetic techniques has the danger of spilling over into humans…. Inherent dangers and ethical questions need to be addressed clearly, keeping the larger interest in focus…. About 20 countries have just agreed to ban the practice of cloning humans. Why clone? The growing of spare parts for one's self, and as an alternative procreational technique.

Pharmaceutical companies are essentially mining the biota by removing it from the indigenous people so that what used to be a common benefit becomes a privately owned good that has to be purchased by those to whom it used to belong. Biotechnology is a threat in that the green revolution concentrated on a few species so that the gene pool became diminished. Our habitat then becomes vulnerable. If we decrease our habitat then we diminish the lot of humankind…. But these kinds of technologies are inevitable. Cloning will be used for growing of spare parts for one's self, and as an alternative procreational technique. There's a technique now coming into use in which a baby's umbilical cord cells are stored so that these cells can be stimulated into development later on if replacement cells are need by the adult, say cells for a bone marrow transplant. With this approach your umbilical cells, stored years earlier, could be the source of the bone marrow cells.

Genetic research will also contribute to vaccinology. The approach is to break down the genetic constitution of the organism that causes disease and to identify that portion of its genetic make up that causes problems.

Another new approach to drug development called "combinatorial chemistry" uses, say a million combinations of chemicals A, B, and C placed on a microchip in all permutations: A alone, A+B, B+C, etc. The chip is exposed to a disease marker and the top sets of combinations of molecules that are likely to be effective against the disease are identified. This screening approach is much more effective than any previous approach…. A problem with genetic therapy today is that vectors don't manufacture enough of the desired product to replace the defective cells in the body. But improved vectors are on the way, and with better selection of disease targets, this field is still very promising. Better disease targets are those that require only relatively few disease-free cells.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

10.1 Facilitate free international access to biotechnology information.

The National Center for Biotechnology at the National Institutes of Health in the U.S. provides this information now…. Especially the results of the Human Genome Project should be accessible to all, and retrievable freely…. Usable information will never flow free…. Viable connections among resources, information, and traditional wisdom should be worked out.

10.2 Increase funding for R&D in biotechnology leading to improved food availability as well as enhanced health, improved animals, insect and disease-resistant plants, etc.

The plant genome project might be the next major genetic mapping project used to improve agriculture.... Support for biomedical research in richer countries is very good, but not for agricultural research, which tends to be too affected by politics. Agricultural research proposal evaluation should use the peer system used by the US National Institutes of Health which produces high quality and original research, and has the courage to cut off research that is not going anywhere. It is better to send funds to individuals than to places.

The universities receive the funds and distribute them on whatever basis they decide. This approach needs improvement…. The Human Frontiers Program in Japan seeks to create international research partnerships; it encourages research collaboration across borders.  Many countries do not have peer review. The journal Nature has devoted some attention to describing these processes in various countries.

Funding for biotechnology R&D is not sufficient in developing countries.  Government funding agencies should appraise the planning commission about its pivotal role. Private companies, in developing countries should be made aware of the benefits in funding biotechnology R&D.

Think about undirected funding. The MacArthur Foundation gives grants simply on the basis of promise and track records.

10.3 Increase R&D leading to removal of virulent microbiological agents from the human food chain.

This is increasingly necessary as international trade in produce expands. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has the largest knowledge base and has to provide the leadership for this research.

10.4 Promote awareness and evaluation of potentially hazardous microbial threats.

This action is extremely important. Biotechnology will produce the knowledge of molecular epidemiology to produce the solutions.  NIH and CDC can lead with this research in collaboration with WHO.

The Asian avian flu scare is an example. In Hong Kong, the flu virus was detected, but the slaughtered carcasses of chickens were left in the open. We need a worldwide network of the quality, sophistication and speed of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  Epidemiology should be global.

10.5 Study and to the extent possible, anticipate the consequences of extended life span; e.g. effects on population size, food availability, social security, resources for health care, etc.

It is important for other countries to also look at the impact of China and India.

10.6 Study and to the extent possible, anticipate the consequences of genetic medicine, including cloning to address many chronic diseases.

Cloning has several applications - some good and some threatening. The Hitler application has to be avoided, of course. But if people want to use the technique as another means for reproduction (add it to the set of techniques that include frozen sperm and ova, in vitro fertilization, and surrogate motherhood), it is OK.... There is no need to do this now, there will be plenty of time later…. Human cloning obviously involves ethical questions. However, it maybe possible to apply the cloning technology only to some human organs.

10.7 Study and to the extent possible, anticipate the consequences of essentially full control of genetics and biochemical processes of all living organisms.

There is no need to do this now, there will be plenty of time later…. "Full" control of genetics is impossible; there will always be gaps.

10.8 Increase funding devoted to the study and discussion of ethical issues in biotechnology including patents, royalties, and informed consent.

The Genomic Institute, NHGRI, and NIH are currently studying this, providing grants, and holding meetings.
It has to be debated biologically, legally, socially, and politically.  Patents are a fact of life now.  They have to be respected; informed consent is a must; industries, governments and universities should lead this action.

Additional actions:

Consider the prospects and need for international conventions in biology and biotech, something like the Geneva Convention: the globalization of ethical values in a set of codes for research, enforceable across borders. These codes would recognize ethical behavior. A model is the Recombinant Advisory Committee (RAC) which through moral suasion defines what is wrong to do in the field.... Government could improve its processes of technology transfer to the public sector. Tech transfer mechanisms are operating today but they are cumbersome; they ought to be reevaluated. Governments should facilitate co-research and co-development of technologies among companies that might normally compete, both within a country and internationally. This would have the advantage of transferring technology effectively as well as stimulating needed areas of study. Co-development might be pursued through the SBIR mechanism, tax rebates, or through mechanisms associated with intellectual property.

Support R&D in all the above mentioned topics within developing countries in order to have free and open mind exchange of criteria throughout the world that may induce cooperative research and developing projects for the benefit of mankind.

Encourage the search for alternative and natural sources of food from animal and vegetal origin. There are plants and animals "hidden" in the environment of developing countries. This should be an appropriate way to promote their interest in using their own natural products. Induce search for an alternative to eliminate pests from agricultural regions, using biological control.

 
11. Encouraging economic development through ethical market economy

Although pursing private interests - individual and/or corporate - in a reasonably free market accelerates economic development, it can sometimes counter the interests of the larger society, such as clean air, and water, and healthy soil. Private pursuit can also limit free market conditions, fostering a spread of unethical behavior. With the rise of democracy, many countries that were confined to other economic systems are now engaged in developing market economies.

The capitalist system is yielding strong economic growth - both at a national and personal level - in many countries in Asia, and South and Central America. The global economy and international trade (especially within regions) is expanding; the Gross World Product, in constant 1995 dollars has increased from US $5 trillion in 1950 to almost $30 trillion today. Capitalism flourishes at many levels: the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh has made loans to more than 2 million families to encourage the development of family-sized private enterprises. Similar small loan banks have been established around the world.
There are movements to introduce a new kind of national accounting to address the distortions related to conventional Gross Product indicators which include not only the economic consequences of production reported by GDP, but the value of uncompensated services and goods and the deterioration of the ecosystems. Ethical market economy is further encouraged by governmental incentives that reward companies that comply with certain social and environmental goals and penalize those that compromise the goals.

Discussions of ethical behavior, of what is good and right and proper, are increasing, not only by individuals but among companies and institutions. The increasing participation of those 65 and older in the labor force could provide wisdom for increasing ethical considerations in business. All this gives rise to the opportunity to improve the economic conditions of many in a more equitable way than in the past even as development gaps are expanding currently.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

When people have a "level playing field" guaranteed by an honest judicial system and other basic social institutions that are transparent, then the market is compatible with human ethical development.... The introduction of ecology into economics forces economics to consider long-term ethical issues. Competition is a basic principle in nature and humans are part of nature, but we can evolve less extreme forms of competition. This can be thought of as human co-evolution with nature. Humanity can create friendlier competition and distribution approaches which people can understand and accept that is based on the quality of results in a free market.

The basic principle of capitalism is increasing profit and all norms of ethics have been formed in accordance with this basic principle of life and business relationships. Today capitalism itself is in transition to a society based on knowledge, hence it is more correct to speak about the transition to a new ethic and the increasing role of ethics in the transitional period to the knowledge based society.

Governments can give incentives to violate the law, e.g., high tariffs lead to smuggling, banning foreign exchange of currency leads to black markets.... Developing countries are beset with too much corruption and greed which can lead to uprisings. Rules of ethical behavior are needed to set boundaries…. Requires a paradigm shift from financial focus to social focus, from things to social causes.

Who is responsible for employment during this shift? Government (local or federal), private sector, individuals? Since capital follows profit, ethical activities have to be shown to be profitable. Agenda 21 of the UN helps by showing the way to the future and giving ideas for possible new approaches….  Sustainable Development and Ethical Finance and Capitalism are interlocked as one issue. This interlinkage is extremely relevant in today's business world.

The vast majority of the microcredit needs are still not being met. Successful payers like the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh are now diversifying. Grameen phone makes cellular telephones available to the poor and Grameen Energy makes photovoltaic cells available to the poor. This is a good example of ethical capitalism: 2.2 million loans have been made and 92% of the bank is owned by women borrowers; 8% is owned by the government of Bangladesh…. Traditional systems should also be linked.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

11.1 Replace welfare attitude with entrepreneurial spirit.

You still need some welfare for those who cannot take care of themselves.... Incentives are needed.
It is not possible immediately in developing world. The public should be supported during the transition.

11.2 Scrutinize and encourage improvement of ethical standards in business by facilitating global dialogs and studies on ethics and private sector business, as well as the ethical implications of unbridled capitalism.

Transparency International is trying to do this. In some cases, a solid campaign of public education can be more effective than laws, e.g., cigarette smoking public education in the U.S. was very successful.... Extend results to the wider educational systems.

In a knowledge-based society ethics will play a new role in business relationships. It is very important to analyze the evolution of ethics and there should be a global study with input from scientists of different nations, religions, and cultures.  This exploration should be coordinated by UNESCO.... Not all ethical standards can be developed by dialogues and studies. Pressure from people can help to build them.

11.3 Encourage employee ownership, e.g. Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP); makes corporate shares available to employees.

It is a necessary action, because the role of employees is changing. This idea is realized best of all in Japan and it will be helpful to study their experience…. This will happen when there is a change in stakeholdership.

11.4 Allow employee access to their own company's Intranet to see elements of the planning system, work flow, production indicators, etc. so that they can more intelligently participate in the business.

Transparency is very important.  Fairness and free flow of information go together…. Participatory management has to be learnt and practiced.

11.5 Encourage the IMF to issue new SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) to reduce developing country debt.

Yes, but can be a morale hazard.  If you know you will be bailed out, then you will have risky behavior.... Maybe the WTO should develop some system of new ethical norms of world trade…. Almost impossible because this is driven by developed countries.

11.6 Create a "Global Securities and Exchange Commission" to help tame currency markets.

The Asian financial crisis has certainly demonstrated financial interdependencies and the need for good business practices. Bribery and corruption - these are certainly ills that have to be cured. One means for doing this might be for the OECD countries to wield a big stick and say we won't invest unless the countries introduce something like the US's Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Also, within OECD, some of the hypocrisy has to be taken out: in Germany if a bribe is made to a German government official, that's a crime. But if it's done in another country it's a deductible expense…. This tends to skip over the poorest countries…. Regional groups of countries should take the lead.

11.7 Promote international free trade among developed and developing countries as a means for assuring strong economic growth in both national and personal income in Third World countries.

Yes, it often is effective in stimulating "strong economic growth" for some period, but in cannot assure sustainable development…. Usable knowledge does not flow.  Each country wants to maintain an edge over others.

11.8 Promote small businesses through access to land, credit, technology, and training with special attention to women.

Add <http://www.microcreditsummit.org> next to "credit" in the action statement.
Link Technology with financial assistance. Government evolve special financial instruments.

11.9 Create incentives for private sector investment into the common good (environmental protection, education, etc.).

Balance trade-offs between incentives and sanctions.
Growing stakeholder power will do this, which will be more effective than a regime imposed by government…. Incentives form the final stage; education is the first stage.

Socially responsible investing in the USA alone now stands at $1.3 trillion of assets managed with "clean", "green" and often ethical criteria. Many such funds have out-performed the Standard & Poors Index since 1990.

11.10 Seek and apply effective modern management approaches such as Total Quality Management.

Agree with intent, but TQM is already on the way out. This action should be replaced with more contemporary qualitative approaches that are emerging…. Each institute should evolve on its own.

11.11 Increase research into alternative progress indicators that reflect qualitative factors such as social and environmental issues.

Replace "increase research" with "start incorporating"…. It is an important action but we should add new indicators, which would reflect social, environmental, and living standard issues.
As a reaction to the new conditions and requirements of evolution, the Integral indicator of living standard has been developed. It includes three indicators: life expectancy, literacy, and GDP per population. But it is not enough. We should also add an indicator that reflects the health of population (not only life expectancy), and the cultural level. An international program for this proposal should be developed…. Should be specific to local situation and created by local think tanks.

Examples are the UN's Human Development Index (HDI) and the World Bank's Wealth Index.

11.12 Promote the emergence of tele-citizens; people from poorer nations who live and work in richer nations who help develop their original countries via volunteer telecommuting.

By 2020 there will be around 4 billion Netizens. When boundaries disappear, can bondages become stronger?

11.13 Expand international programs of retraining to help avoid technological and managerial obsolescence.

It is not a bad action, but sometimes in these programs it is attempted to Western stereotype transitional/developing countries business culture. They are helpful for international relations, but absolutely useless at an internal level. The programs could be more efficient if the training courses would be prepared by an international panel.

11.14 Identify, monitor, and publicize sources of the constraints to free markets around the world.

Industrial Associations should do it.

11.15 Offer technical and managerial assistance for the privatization of state-owned enterprises.

A commission from outside can supervise.

11.16 Fund programs that promote constructive uses of leisure time.

11.17 Increase participatory processes between labor, management, and consumers.

Important, but is already happening

11.18 Observe standard central bank rules on the issuance of currency to avoid inflation.

This moderates problems but does not eliminate them because it gives governments and commercial banks the opportunity of embezzlement. The central banks work through commercial banks that are profit-oriented rather than service-oriented. Thus it enriches a privileged elite at the expense of the ordinary citizen. The issuance of debt-based currency promotes consumerism and prevents sustainable development…. An alternative Foreign Exchange facility has been proposed, which would be operated as a public utility, allowing central banks and the UN to regulate speculators.

11.19 Explore use of public voting via Internet on potential corporate decisions of global importance.

Additional actions:

Base currencies on assets and issue them only through non-profit institutions.... Establish an international code of ethics and national certification programs for professional bankers…. Using face-to-face networking and Internet banks could be set up to lend to ethical/sustainable projects as sort of a competition with existing banks…. Microcredit and ethical capitalism can extend beyond community to positively impact a nation's economy.

There should be linkage of tradition, knowledge, traditional Technology to the mainstream.

Clarify ethical issues linked to traditional system.

 
12. Increasing economic autonomy of women and other groups

Improved literacy, diminished infant mortality, improved and inexpensive contraceptives, and effective family planning programs have increased women's participation in the cash economies. The use of the Internet for global interaction also contributes to the economic autonomy of women, the elderly, and other less advantaged groups. Women and other groups are evolving from victims to builders of alternative societies. Micro-entrepreneur-ship and credit are growing rapidly, which has extended US $1.5 billion loans for self-emolument in 35,000 villages in Bangladesh. Nearly half the world's women participate in the cash economy. Improved education and health worldwide have increased labor force participation of those 65 and older. The striving for economic autonomy crosses cultural, geographical, racial, class, religious, and ethnic boundaries.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

As the economic and political autonomy of women increase there will be a subsequent decrease in a mainly male-dominated economic discipline…. Decision making autonomy in addition to economic autonomy is an important…. The Beijing conference in 1995 has clearly showed how the conditions of women's self sufficiency is one of the most important social components of social development. Women are nurturers of children who are the future of society. The survival of children is related to women's economic power and to their role in society. A clear example is that, on the whole, children in India are suffering more of malnutrition than children in Africa where women have a stronger social role.

Industrial countries are advanced regarding maternity protection, flexibility in the labor market, support of entrepreneurial innovation by women and access to credit. Swiss women have a relatively weak position relative to the rest of E.C. countries (see NAU). Families are getting smaller in industrialized countries with increasing women as head of families. In Southern Europe women are still rather excluded from the labor markets although often with a higher level of education than men, thus weakening the welfare state. There is still little protection of women who reenter the labor market after 40 years of age. An increasing problem in Europe are older women living along who have paid into the social security but who now receive too little to be comfortable.
People over 65 should retire. In China it is more important to organize women in rural area than in urban area. Overall, women's problems in China have been solved better than in some developed countries…. There is a strong dichotomy in women's participation in the democratic process: on one side women are considered the carriers of traditional values; on the other they are the ones in need of the greatest transformation...Why should others than women be involved in abortion?

It is not proper to treat woman's problems with that of other groups. Moreover, the concept of other groups is ambiguous in many countries (e.g. China), many groups are based on cooperation, whereas women is component part of society.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

12.1 Explore sanctions for governments that do not enact and enforce legislation to guarantee the rights of women and other groups (including property rights), and adopt and implement laws against discrimination in employment.

Legal enforcement should be built into the law itself.
The economic sanctions are not the best solution, but they are tools…. Evolution of rights should be a continuous process, without need of rules' support…. Lokpal, Lok Adalat can help.  NGOs movement should lead.

12.2 Emphasize programs designed to reduce illiteracy rate; especially among rural, migrant, refugee, internally displaced, and disabled people.

Enhancing intelligence of individuals is essential for development…. Make primary education universal, free, and compulsory. Hold the child in class till the child is literate…. Education is the fundamental solution, economic support is the key to the solution (e.g. providing the opportunity of education and employment for women)…. It should be planned accordingly to the regions' conditions…. In addition to formal education, media should help.

12.3 Improve child care options.

Parental contact and nurturing interaction during the child's early development is critical for future social skills, self-confidence, self-realization potential, and approach to conflict resolution….  Add generous paid and unpaid parental leave provisions and other measures that encourage and allow parents to keep a principal role in the care for their children. It should emphasize that institutional child care should not and cannot replace care by the family…. Mass mechanisms have to be made more efficient.  Awareness is necessary…. Concentrate on preventive health.

12.4 Use the Internet to link and train NGOs to improve their effectiveness working with women and other groups seeking economic autonomy.

Feasible, but the prerequisite is that developed countries provide more Internet equipment to developing countries…. This plays only part role…. The role of government is the most important, but, at the same time, UN, NGOs, IOs and enterprises could contribute to resolve the problem by financial support and education.

12.5 Support role models for women and other groups.

Involve local people and Panchayat Raj (as in India) in development.

12.6 Implement the Platform for Action, passed by the UN Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing 1995.

The Platform for Action of the UN conference is not yet known to people.  Information dissemination is necessary. Under development and lack of information are interlinked. NGOs and Government should join together to get over this problem.

12.7 Governments should restructure and target the allocation of public expenditures to promote women's access to family planning resources.

Insure the life of the first child, and family planning will take care of itself…. The implementation of this action depends on national situation…. It is an issue of quality and education…. The network of primary health centers should be effectively used.

12.8 Increase access to credit, technology, training, and land to women and other groups.

Women need to be involved in decision making bodies to make this possible… Women's education should be strengthened and governments should pay more attention to the health and security of working women… In China there has been much progress.

12.9 Support and promote programs to improve health care, diminish infant mortality, and all modes of family planning by subsidizing and distributing contraceptives.

12.10 Promote discussions about the changing role of women, birth control, and religion.

Gender sensitivity should be increased among both men and women…. Both religious and political actors should be involved in decreasing the birth rate: policy makers, because the public should know why such actions should be implemented, and religious leaders, because they are or have been against regulating birth rates.... It can be carried out on the radio, Internet and other mediums.

It seems not necessary…. Improve the quality of contraceptives.  Poor quality of contraceptives leads to family problems.

12.11 Give equal pay for equal work

It is necessary but should emphasize the quantity and quality at the same time… Women's organizations need to be formed to help implementation within the informal sector… It can be realized in some countries, particularly in socialist countries…. Woman's Associations should lead.

Additional actions:

More women need global scholarly experience of at least two or three years to improve women's self-determination and autonomy.  This should be a great jump forward for the whole of society.

Since a major percentage of income in poor areas goes to alcohol, some kind of alcohol control is needed.
Cultures that prefer male children have to change.

Social partnerships among business, labor, and government should provide leadership to address the actions suggested.

Changing consciousness is the most important way to improve autonomy of women at present. The thought that men are superior to women was formed for a long time. It is a common problem worldwide…. Stress should be on rural women and employing their traditional knowledge gainfully. Instead of targeting specific groups it should be oriented towards the whole village.

Build training for employment for women into technology.  Women's associations should be created within the informal sector to open male-dominated jobs to women…. I agree that women should have equal right with men, but I do not think that they should be involved into economic and business relationships in the same way as men…. Government should create an index of sustainable welfare, which includes jobs.

Women's World Banking is in over 40 countries, but with so much attention to the Grameen Bank, these Women's Banks get less support.

 
13. Promoting the inquiry into new and sometimes counter-intuitive ideas

Sailing around the world, machine flight, electricity, germs causing disease, landing on the Moon, and many other important ideas were ridiculed prior to their success. Today ideas like increasing human capacities by self-control of inherent human healing power, cognition enhancing drugs, beneficial uses of low level radiation, artificial reality, extraterrestrial contact, new sources of energy receive little support. Increasing affluence and global communications systems allow for new ideas to be rapidly assessed via widely different disciplines and epistemologies. As a result we may be able to explore new and sometimes counter-intuitive ideas as never before and hence, further expanding the human capacity.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

Instead of counter intuitive ideas one should think in terms of new ideas based on a new scientific paradigm…. The pay off is in our ability to recruit; people who show up like this type of environment. In the future, the differentiation between rich and poor will be based less on money than on access to information and the Web.... Motorola traces its corporate history in terms of "pleasant surprises," counter intuitive developments that have made the company what it is. We count 14 that were important to our company. We publicize contributions via an in-house publication that presents new cases for our associates to look at. These include: new science developments, heroes in the organization, moral dilemmas in the applications of technology, and counter-intuitive ideas that work.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

13.1 Create common data protocols for unconventional science.

We need a classification system to distinguish between the conventional and unconventional.... There are two problems in creating common data protocols: 1) the protection of the information from the unconscientious implementation; and 2) the problem of free access to the information, which could be used for commercial purpose.... Create a World Patent Agency that also keeps the common data protocols for a data bank of non-patentable ideas…. Unconventional becomes conventional once it is experimented on…. International Agencies/ Institutions by the related institutions should take the lead.

13.2 Create an international registry of new and unconventional ideas with national copyright protections. Connect this registry with a clearinghouse that reports success, failure, and inconclusive research.

This could be done on an Internet web site like ICSU.... I think we need two systems of protection: a system of copyright protection and a system of protection of data protocols from the implementation of this knowledge to the detriment of society…. Consider beginning with national registries…. Yes.  Academy of Sciences should do it. "Unconventional science" disturbs me.  Study of "unconventional science" in a scientific way makes it conventional.

13.3 Create software that prompts the user to see potential synergies of their work with research in other fields that they might not have otherwise considered.

Interesting idea.  Use pattern analysis of such synergies to help you discover what you don't know. Then use second generation analysis to create pattern of new synergies…. Ministries for Science & Technology should do it.

13.4 Use new forms of group software for global discussions of such ideas.

Use new generation of smart group software that notifies you when new items of interest are entered in global discussions…. It's coming up.

13.5 Set aside research funds for experimental applications of currently novel theories such as chaos and complexity.

These should be treated as basic research. R & D institutions should pressure governments to identify them as important new areas.

13.6 Include multi- and transdisciplinary techniques and non-linear thinking approaches in school curricula, especially in secondary schools.

Yes. CBSE, State Units of education should take over. Teachers training in this area is needed; university system should do it.

13.7 Creativity workshops for schools, corporations, and governments should teach that the creative process includes failure, chaos, and uncertainty, holding contradictory positions.

Use quality circles to create consensus and new thought. Create infrastructure for safe transinstitutional communications for sharing ideas.  Invite corporations to share the risks of such experimental activities. Maybe the Millennium Project should facilitate this.

Evolve special institutions for designing creativity workshops.  Government should create such institutions…. Futures Studies organizations may do them.

13.8 Support dialogs between eastern and western medicine.

Medicine, as well as other borderline sciences (especially in the range of environment and ecology) need cooperation. It is very useful to recognize the view of oriental philosophy, and meanwhile to develop new areas…. Integration is there.

13.9 Apply the new knowledge of brain reasoning and decision processes to enhance the brain's ability for complex reasoning.

Vague.

13.10 Support research for a breakthrough that would make use of surplus radioactive materials (from nuclear plant decommissioning).

This does not require a breakthrough. The physics and technology to do it are quite well understood. U.S. DOE and TVA are presently negotiating a possible trial at one of TVA's commercial reactors. However, this is highly controversial as it would reverse U.S. philosophy about the separation of civilian and military nuclear technologies that has been a cornerstone for many years of policies to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

We need a period of reflection and research on implications for non-proliferation, on how to safeguard fissile materials with weapons potential if this is done in operational programs not only in the USA but also by other nations, and on alternative methods for disposing of weapons-grade nuclear material…. Yes. Nuclear Agencies, NGO, Pressure groups should do it…. Apportion part of budget in the beginning for this.

13.11 Expand and support, in the US, funding for the National Institutes of Alternative Medicine.

Why only U.S., everywhere in India.

13.12 Create incentives in the health care and other industries to invest in prevention rather than remediation.

Health Departments and Insurance companies should support industries.  Tax concession should be given.

13.13 Promote studies of the philosophy of science to reach a better understanding of objective vs. subjective truth.

History of science is also important and can give insights into the philosophy of science…. Yes, at School curricula level. Value system and philosophy of science should be built into science curricula.

Additional actions:

Education should make more use of the mentor/coaching approaches through advanced telecommunications by passing much of the conventional educational teaching approaches. Granted, this would be difficult to implement.... Create demonstration projects that show how to achieve a better life.... Influence policies through collaborative efforts.... Investigate long-term opportunities through techniques such as the science road maps.

Enhance creativity of young minds.... Create a value system for science in community…. Patents and funding to be revamped…. Lack of adequate relationship between science & users.
 

14.  Pursuing promising space projects

The synergies of advanced research in biology and physics necessary for human space flight has generated an extraordinary number and range of inventions, stimulated thought about the meaning of life, history, and our common future, and created many opportunities for peaceful international cooperation. Space-related inventions have created new industries, tax sources for social programs, improved living standards, expanded access to tools by miniaturization, and production processes that have lowered the costs of many technologies from satellite communications to medical diagnostic techniques. Some argue that migration from earth is inevitable; it is in the myths of many cultures; it is an exciting goal and would provide alternative habitats as an insurance for the human species should an earthly catastrophe destroy life on earth.  For, example, if the trajectory of the comet that crashed into Jupiter in 1996 had been slightly different, it would have destroyed the earth. New space projects could improve our understanding of the nature of the solar system and the universe; develop completely novel technologies that could contribute to alleviation of some of the world's most vexing problems (food, shelter, health, etc.); lower costs and increase efficiencies in production processes; accelerate peaceful international collaboration; provide virtually instant, ubiquitous communications among both fixed and mobile users, including telephony, video, data, and multi-media; and possibly confirm extraterrestrial intelligence, a development that could revolutionize our sciences, values, philosophies, and/or views of the universe.

The video coverage of the 1997 July 4th Mars rover landing and surveying was the biggest Internet event in history.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

Space opens new possibilities for all spheres of activity, including the cosmotization of human activity and consciousness.

By the year 2050, the energy demand by a vastly larger and wealthier Third World will require enormous amounts of energy that can only come safely from space (Solar Power Satellites, Photovoltaics on the Moon, and or Helium 3 from the Moon for earth use in fusion plants (safer than deuterium).  Space tourism will also be made possible by global lottery systems.  The income to drive the development of space for all humanity will come from space communications, energy, and tourism.
NASA is leading an international effort, Mission to Planet Earth, now called Earth Science, to use satellites to provide data to create total system computer models of the earth as an aid in policy within five years. NASA has created a new program, Origins, to seek microbial life in the Solar system and beyond to understand the origins of life.

It is time to rethink the meaning and purpose of going to space. The 70s people believed that society would improve with technological development. In the 80s, environment was the focus with technology as scapegoat. Today even US focuses on small projects. The meaning of exploring space should be discussed more deeply. Technological development would make it possible for ordinary people go to space trips in 30 years. That will help change their "consciousness " by watching the earth from space.

When the space station project faced the financial difficulty and other countries began to discuss withdrawing, Japanese government insisted on continuing the project. This may be because of the different way of thinking (i.e. Japanese bureaucrats tend to think "we spent much money already, how can we stop it?", whereas other countries tend to think "we will need much money in the future, how can we continue it?")…. Once there was life on Mars.  Why is it gone?

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

14.1 Encourage the development of satellite systems that will provide virtually instant, ubiquitous communications connectivity between both fixed and mobile users, including telephony, video, data, and multimedia.

This is a profitable industry and capital is sufficiently being attracted so that additional encouragement is not necessary.... Private sector is providing the leadership and making great progress.... The government should be responsible for it.

14.2 Pursue policies that reduce the cost of access to space (lower launch costs).

This is the most important item on the list to increase space development programs. The private sector should take the leadership with some support from governments.... This is the number one priority for the past 30 years, but the political decisions have not matched this goal.  It is seen as infrastructure and not politically exciting technology.  We need an exciting spokesman for launch costs research…. This is a joint responsibility of government and the private sector. Currently NASA is supporting the X-33 technology program leading to single stage re-usable rocket and the X-34 single stage rocket launched from the wing of an airplane.... Next generation re-usable rockets will lower costs to US$2000 per pound, but further reductions will probably level off at $1000 per pond.

Government can help, but the private sector will provide the leadership in lowering costs.... The cost is reducing gradually; hence, I don't think special actions would be necessary…. The reduction of launch costs is inevitable because governments and private companies compete for launch business. In Japan much cost for R&D is covered by the government. For example, the government has to cover 80 billion yen to lower the price of HII rocket from 19 billion Japanese yen to 8.5 billion yen. Arian Rocket of Europe is financially supported by the Francch government. Hence, at this moment, the government needs to take leadership to lower the cost to compete in the commercial launch market…. The potential of the linear induction mass driver or "rail gun" or "spacegun" would drastically reduce costs of launching materials.

14.3 While the International Space Station (IIS) and scientific research is the central focus for government space programs, accelerate the privatization of space applications to avoid public cycles of interest and disinterest in space support.

17 nations are involved in the construction of IIS. They plan 45 space flights from 4 launch sites that will lift 100 pieces of equipment to assemble the IIS…. 1996 was the first year that private sector's revenues from space activities exceeded general government expenses for space activities…. The NASA Space Shuttle is semi-private now. As government budgets reduce, privatization will continue, but Governments still need to lead with the Space Station, though it too will move toward privatization.... Boeing is working on privatizing the Space Station now. This is the right direction.... Government programs are expensive, political, and slow.

Space tourism, driven by lottery systems (in addition to communications and energy from space) will provide profit incentives for private development of space. How many people around the world would buy a lottery ticket for US$1 to go to space?  A flight would cost $200-500,000 per winner…. Government should take leadership for taking risk in developing new technology. The private sector might not be able to take such a huge risk. As the technology is developed and the cost has reduced, it would be taken over by the private sector. The cycle of privatization is working, and we would like to privatize as many space projects as possible. However, I also believe that it takes time and that we should not hurry.... It is not the time yet to privatize the whole program.

14.4 Include space exploration and development in the global political agenda: space stations, planetary exploration, and beyond.

Attention to global warming will help put space on the political agenda by drawing attention to the role of monitoring earth from space, the potential of safer energy from space, the fragility of earth, and the need to have life off earth as insurance for the future of humanity.... NASA is doing this now.... The creation of an international program for planetary exploration could be the focus for such a global political agenda.

Space industrialization should be seen by all nations as a shared project. Commercial ventures in orbit, on the moon or on Mars should pay a fee to the UN. The UN should develop international law and administer the collection of these fees. It benefits everyone in the world. If the Moon were made a UN Trusteeship, then earthlings would learn how to work together as a species to manage a planetary body. The reverberations for world peace and security from this experience could be enormous.  We will have human settlements on the Moon by 2050…. The work should be harmonized. The UN should take leadership.

14.5 Convert the Cold-War space paradigm to a space development paradigm.

Once people realize that energy from space can address the tremendous energy demand over the next 25 to 50 years while reducing environmental impacts, then space development from all of humanity will become the next paradigm.... The new paradigm is the peaceful uses of space for the benefit of humanity through commercialization, science, environmental studies, and international law and security. In this paradigm, space development is open to all within common rules…. Russia has already changed its space paradigm and developed the post-Cold War program. But it does not mean that space should not be involved in providing security.  Space could provide global and national security.

This statement is not applicable to Japanese space development. In Japan, nothing was changed before and after the Cold War. Japanese space policy is not changed because of politicians' change. US often stops a project even though it is 80% completed. The Japanese respect "continuity", and our space project has been stable. Regardless of "paradigm", Japan is just continuing to pursue space projects…. The Space Station will help. Russia launched the first componts…. Government should take leadership.... NGOs should take leadership to create the next space paradigm.

14.6 Accelerate international space development cooperation

The US still has to lead this cooperation as it has with the space station. Next should be the solar power satellite, and then an international lunar base. These goals will focus and give reason for international cooperation.... This is accelerated by internationally inventing a common space program and including international participation in national space strategic planning.... It is taking place, but the biggest problem is that there is a big gap between developing countries and developed countries, although India, China, and Brazil are the exception with advanced space technology of their own.

Yes, but new rules, principals, and guidelines for international cooperation should be developed. When US decided to shrink the project of the Space Station Freedom, other countries were not informed. This attitude increased mistrust within the international space community as well as hurting NASA employees. The US wants international cooperation only when they need financial assistance.

Many examples of the past space programs (e.g. Hubble Space Telescope) indicates that US tended to want to pursue the project exclusively by themselves when they can do it alone, and did not want other countries to participate. I am quite optimistic that American attitudes can be changed so that truly effective international cooperation would be possible. Since politicians can influence or damage international cooperation, politicians have to be included in the creation of a code of international ethics in space cooperation.... There are two types of international cooperation: equal cooperation and support or sales. The former is possible when the levels of technology are almost same. The latter is the way to cooperate when the levels of technology are very different. 30 years ago, Japan bought much technology from the US. Now, Japan is providing technical support for Asian countries, e.g. remote sensing technology for Thailand's forest research. At this moment, their technical level is not good enough to return something to Japan, but they will gradually improve their level of technology, and I hope we can cooperate with each other in a true sense some day.... International cooperation might be also effective in the education….  Consider environmental impacts.

14.7 Fund research designed to improve understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe and the solar system, and the use of this knowledge in developing completely novel technologies.

NASA has begun the "Origins Program" to do this.... This is going on well, led by governments and universities.... The purpose of almost all space science projects is related to the origins issue…. Completely novel technologies have to be developed to improve understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe and solar system.

14.8 Establish a lunar base that supports economic development in space for such activities as mining, energy and/or industrial production, and tourism.

This is very important, and next to solar power satellites should be the next focus for US leadership in international space cooperation.... If we use the minerals on the moon alone, we can eradicate poverty on earth. The greatest achievements in exploration and exploitations in history occurred when there were great frontiers. The space frontier is virtually limitless. Unless we exploit the moon - we are asking for extinction…. There is no consensus about whether to make a lunar base or Mars base first or to do a joint Moon-Mars program.... In 2003, Japan is going to launch a satellite to explore the moon.

Establishing a Lunar base is a good idea because it only takes two days to go to the moon, there are many minerals available, it is much easier to go to the stationary orbit from the moon compared to going from the earth. That's why Japan decided to focus on lunar development. As the US lost interest in the moon, Japan should/can take leadership to explore the moon. The cumulative experiences on the moon would be helpful when we go to the further planets. This policy was already approved by the Japanese government and other countries, I think. Of course, we welcome other countries participation.

The Japanese policy development mechanism is very different from the US's. In the US, a large goal is developed and then efforts are made to achieve the goal. In Japan, many small steps are taken initially, and then the policy itself is gradually developed. Therefore, Japan is interested in Moon exploration, but the issue of lunar base has not yet developed as a concrete policy. To establish the lunar base, we need to overcome many technical difficulties. The technology will slowly develop to establish a lunar base…. Governments can support scientific research to help, but the actual development must be done by the private sector…. NGOs should take leadership.

14.9 Establish a human settlement on Mars.

This has always been the long-term vision of space programs, but costs have to be reduced, international cooperation has to be achieved, knowledge about living in space has to be sufficient, and the political rationale has to be accepted. The success of ISS will be necessary for these conditions.... After ISS, we will have to make a decision about what we should do as space activities. I think that the critical decision will be made in 2005-2010. A human settlement on Mars is quite realistic in the future…. Successful management of lunar development will prepare us for Martian development…. Too early to make it a goal now, but continue the robotic probes.... If you cannot protect the earth, how can you protect other planets?…. Further researches should be done. NGO should take leadership.

14.10 Test a solar power satellite in orbit

Extremely important and should be the next goal after the ISS.... Finally some action on this is possible. A study in the late 1980s was designed to kill the idea by assuming that all materials and components were manufactured on earth and then flown to orbit by a large number of flights by the original space shuttle. The more intelligent approach would use near-by astroids and/or lunar material and manufacture and assemble as much as possible in space.

The US Office of Management and Budget has included $5 million in the President's budget to up-date the research on Solar Power Satellites, now referred to as Wireless Power Transmission…. NASDA would be happy to take leadership to pursue feasibility study…. It is a good idea, and I think Japanese government (MITI) should take leadership. Japan is such a small country, and would be a good test case for a solar power satellite…. Consider environmental impacts.

14.11 Recognize the risks of an asteroid and meteoroid collision with earth and possibly deploy missiles that could redirect their course.

NASA has begun mapping near-earth asteroids, but it is hard to get people to take this seriously.... Although Jupiter did get hit in 1994, the likelihood of earth being hit is too low to consider, but it is still good to give attention to it and educate the public about space.... Detecting is necessary, but active defense is out of the question.... There are too many things to do before worrying about an asteroid. It is not a bad idea to continue to study it, but I don't think that special action should be taken…. This idea is a little too dramatic, but if we do it, maybe the UN should take leadership.

14.12 Increase funding of SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) projects.

Yes, but at a low level.... The Origins Program of NASA only looks for extraterrestrial microbes. Affluent people in the private sector are more likely to fund this than governments.... I don't think the budget should be increased for SETI. This research can be done voluntarily using current spare assets…. The UN should be part of this…. This project should be continued. There is no budget for SETI in Japan even though 10 million yen per year can make it happen in Japan…. Should be considered, the government should take leadership.

14.13 Include in educational curriculum explanations of how space programs impact medicine, agriculture, science, employment, reduced inflation, economic growth, reduction of pollution, and global communications.

The biggest event in the history of Internet was the 700 million hits NASA's web site got over a 2-3 month period during the recent Mars landing. Anyone accessing this site got the same information at the same time as NASA scientists.  This is an educational event and engages the public in space science.... Government should lead supporting specific projects that the public can get some sense of participation like ability to see Mars simultaneously with space scientists via the Internet.... Currently NASA leads in providing information to the public including software companies and the Internet. It is a very important action. We need to accumulate intellectual potential internationally to develop good training programs.... Education is important, but maybe it should be done in higher level, not in the elementary school.... I disagree that this type of information should be included in educational curriculum, because it is not good idea to force children to believe it. If the purpose of this action is to promote space projects and to get people's attention, there might be better actions. For example, we provided children with space rocket classes where children enjoy making water rockets. Children and their parents become interested in space projects through these enjoyable activities. These natural approaches are appropriate to promote space projects…. I don't think that it is a good idea to teach "space is useful" because I am afraid that such education tends to be brainwashing or propaganda. It would be more appropriate to use space as a material for children to think.

14.14 Up-date the 1967 Outer Space Treaty to reflect the new global political and technological situation.

Yes, and the Moon treaty too, so that energy from space is not blocked.... That is underway on the Moon treaty. Later in 1998 The UN Committee on Outer Space will consider changes to help private sector participation in asteroid and lunar mining.... I don't think it is very necessary. Reality will be always quicker than efforts to update a treaty.

The UN is too bureaucratic to lead a change.... The issue of space debris can be included. The UN might be responsible for it, but I don't think the UN can take action to help change the Treaty, because they have been discussing where is the boundary between sky and space for more than 30 years, and they have not reached any agreement yet.

Additional actions:

According to the US National Research Council, government should invest US$3 to $5 million a year for up to five years in six technology areas that will enable other space development activities. They are: 1) Tools for mining resources from the moon, Mars, or other planets. Using resources from space would provide an alternative to launching supplies from Earth. For example, oxygen extracted from the moon's surface could be used to make rocket propellant, which could dramatically cut costs of long-duration missions.

Technology development should focus on extraction, processing, and storage methods; 2) High-frequency, wideband interplanetary communications systems. 3) Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) for space. Microelectromechanical systems such as microscopic gears, sensors, and switches already are being used for other purposes. These could be used for spacecraft sensors, communications, navigation, power, and propulsion systems. These technologies could eventually be adapted to create miniature spacecraft; 4) Nuclear power systems. Many deep space missions unable to rely on solar power could use advanced nuclear reactors. Nuclear power systems typically are compact, durable, and resistant to space radiation, dust storms, or other external upsets. Work in this area should focus on improving energy-conversion efficiency and developing safer nuclear power sources through new materials and designs; 5) Radiation-resistant computer memories and electronics; and 6) Precisely controlled antennas, mirrors, and other space structures. These types of large, lightweight structures are difficult to control in weightless space environments.

In Japan, we see fewer students who are interested in science than before. Big change in education would be necessary. Ministry of Education and Agency of Science and Technology will be united soon, and I hope that space can be used to increase and expand children's curiosity so that they can keep and develop dreams of humanity.

 
15. Improving institutions

Unprecedented institutional forms are now possible with information technology.  For example, in just one day in March 1996 - Net Day - 25,000 schools in California received assistance from 20,000 volunteers to hook up schools to the Internet, all coordinated via www.netday, with no budget, staff, or office. The Internet itself is an institutional innovation of unprecedented proportions. Hierarchical institutions are either evolving into network organizations or being challenged by networked institutions. Regional institutions like the EU, NAFTA, ECOWAS, Mercosur, and ASEAN are growing in importance as are global organizations like the WTO and WHO, giving rise to global governance based on trans- and intergovernmental institutions and mechanisms for standards, protocols, and coordinating actions between institutions and governments of different countries.

The UN Electoral Unit is certifying democratic elections, the Internet sets communication protocols, the Olympic Committee sets standards for sports. At the same time, some institutions are decentralizing; big corporations are breaking up into smaller units; big government welfare state policies are being dismantled and/or privatized, blurring the border between public and private organizations. NGOs are proliferating, becoming increasingly transnational, and growing in policy influence. With the growing complexity of global issues and the numbers of people involved in the decision-making process, institutions are challenged to find new approaches to management and decision making. Some of these decisions must necessarily be made without full knowledge of factors that will affect their outcome. It is important, therefore that existing institutions be modernized and strengthened, or, if obsolete, terminated. Similarly, new institutions to deal with unprecedented issues and opportunities may be needed.

Harmonizing international standards and protocols (in banking and financial markets, for example) and a more active processes of development of common programs in different regions of the world, may also prove useful. There is an extraordinary array of innovative approaches to apply to the enormous task of reshaping our institutions for the 21st Century.

ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS

When a company gets so large it cannot be managed by accounting systems, then it makes sense to split into smaller companies. Decentralization often means passing out work while keeping central control. Uncentralization is when no single unit is in control.... Teaming as a basic infrastructural unit that avoids filtering through managers…. Organizations are increasingly involved in electronic and people networks. My government department is losing power to the EU and to local communities. The boundaries between public and private institutions are changing. Creating partnerships is the new focus for government departments…. It is very difficult to terminate any institution.... Include the anti-corruption work being done by Transparency International.

Because the information revolution has created a new generation that thinks in networks rather than hierarchies, people will have to be managed to mutually cultivate their abilities rather than efficiently implement orders.

There have been tremendous institutional changes over the last 50 years.  Standards from banking practices to air traffic control are worldwide and much of the international systems were overhauled after World War II.  Today people are more complacent and create incremental changes. The United States is not willing to provide leadership for major institutional changes in the international institutions. When governments decide on international institutions' program and budget each year, they have to justify themselves each year to every country.  As a result, they have difficulty changing. Those who charge fees and hence have their income independent of government decisions have more flexibility. IMF, World Bank, and IDB charge for their loans and have greater flexibility than do institutions like UNDP and UNICEF. The sooner international organizations earn their income from their services the sooner they will be able to adapt to new situations.

In many developing countries, the focus is on the creation and growth of institutions that do not yet exist, such as a legal system with an honest judiciary, state partnerships with a growing non-state sector, home mortgage and insurance systems, etc.

The description above gives major focus to information technology, but there is more to improving institutions than that. We don't need new institutions as much as we need the consolidation of current ones.... Insurance companies depend on the growth of the middle class, which in turn depend on improved institutions. Insurance corporations are beginning to use NGOs to improve institution because they focus more on achieving results than do governments. As we more toward an information-service economy and NGOs are information-service enterprises, the NGO role in improving institutions will increase…. Increasingly retired senior executives are working for NGOs.... UN treaties and protocols on human rights, labor and environment are gradually being turned into auditable standards for corporate performance by auditing firms.
Advertisements are the only way the public learns about institutions and their changes.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

15.1 Provide periodic training in advanced management and technology such as Intranets, executive information systems, total quality management, and knowledge visualization.

Training should be constant not periodic. Management is the impediment because they had to use it less. Include the knowledge strategy that begins with designating what capabilities are necessary, how to acquire the skills, and how to manage the knowledge so that the needed information gets to the right persons, at the right time, in the correct form. Identify what do we do best, and focus on that, because in the global environment the completion is more difficult.
Team structures can build, exchange, manage, and measure competence and the technology to access it similar to how teams in the professional sporting world do. Reinforce behaviors that model these new approaches. Teams with interdependent skills create loyalty.... Teach teaming as a skill and management strategy…. Short periods of secondment outside of my department would work best to expand experience and to learn what needs changing. Education about change is more important than training in new equipment…. Virtually impossible to implement in a developing country. Time, money and infrastructure are all lacking.

15.2 Increase accountability, transparency, and participation in management.

This action is accomplished by showing how vision, mission, goals, strategies, and objectives are inter-linked and how each in turn is linked to every employee. The awareness of personal linkage and rewards based on this linkage leads to accountability. Making this clear to all personnel increases transparency.

This is the central focus of UN reform. Too many in international organizations focus too much on process and not enough on results.

Institutions have to be transparent to outsiders as well as insiders, because much of the pressure for change comes from outside an institution. Making information on strategic challenges available to employees makes their participation in policy-making meaningful. Bring in people who have succeeded in making institutions more accountable, transparent, and participatory…. Transparency International is working to achieve this…. NGOs should provide training.

15.3 Evolve from hierarchical or top-down management to network approaches.

Nation-states micro-manage the UN reducing its flexibility.... Instead of network approach we need multi-organizational structures. These are structures that are different for different purposes.  It's hierarchical for leadership and management of strategies, order, and guidance; it's nurturing for relations with alliances and partners for outsourcing; it's process-oriented for product quality and market-timing; it's network to link internal and external resources, and it's a multi-organization to know how and when to work in these four structures.
Key benefit is democratic access to information.

The type of management needs to be fitted to the place and time. In many cases (e.g. the military) top-down management works best.

15.4 Promote policies leading to UN reform.

UN reform now has a life of its own and is being done.... Total reform is not necessary. But efficiency could certainly be improved. Look, the UN does many things right. There is no corruption. Outside of the US most people trust the UN. It can be seen as needing some improvement, or as a joke sometimes, but never corrupt…. Should be given teeth to be more effective

 15.5 Promote policies toward global governance (not government); harmonize international standards and protocols including those of the banking and financial markets.

Use a better term than "global governance", it is too often confused with world government.... Delete the term "governance (not government)" simply say "policies that harmonize international"…. It will take time for people to accept and understand the term governance rather than government, but it is part of the information evolution and the generation and transfer of new management tools.... "Business Models" vs. Governance.

Governance is unusually determined by economics. In the US, Jack Walshman noted the 1970's focused on quality with TQM and benchmarking to recapture the electronics and auto industries. The 1980s and 90s focused on cost to compete in the evolving global market forcing the companies to down-size and focus on process. Growth is the current model that focuses on core competencies, knowledge management, and high revenues.  Next may be a global model that has the private sector taking on many of the functions of government.

Yes, but understand that globalization of standards increases competitive pressure. Suppliers find it harder to defend their position.  This is good for consumers, but can be bad for employees…. How to overcome vested interests that will not agree with harmonization, let along global governance?…. How can the diversity be accommodated?

15.6 Encourage NGOs to contribute to confidence building, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy and include NGO's in international decision making.

Yes, but the seriousness and quality of NGO work has to be good. Amnesty International's work is good and as a result it has a direct relationship with the Secretary-General of the UN.... Yes, and corporations should support NGOs in this.

NGOs are not all the same, but in general they have an important role in policy-making because they come to it without baggage. Outsiders can play an important role in conflict resolution (Norway in Israel, US in Bosnia) but these are not usually NGOs…. The NGO's in my country do not have the confidence of the government. In many cases NGO's consist of opponents of the government. Further many NGO's do not have constituents able to seize opportunities.

There is a tension between global organizations such as the World Bank who want NGO involvement and the Government who see NGO's as the breeding ground for opposition.

15.7 Create more equitable and less corrupting systems for political campaign financing.

UN Electoral Units could help in some cases like Cambodia, but it will take a very large scale public response from the media and NGOs to make a difference…. Can the conflict between getting elected and governing be resolved?…. The only solution is to change the nature of politicians. The present system cannot achieve that…. Peoples' movements should lead.

15.8 Initiate programs of compulsory community service, from neighborhood to the global level.

Keep it voluntary to keep the sincerity.... Yes, but initiate and encourage community service, don't make it compulsory…. If it is compulsory then it is not community service.

15.9 Incorporate child care systems into the work place.

This has been proven to be cost effective and improve morale.... Corporations are increasingly doing this today.... Work rules should be revised and businesses encouraged to make further voluntary changes that give higher priority not only to childcare in general but to greater parental involvement in providing that care. Make arrangements and provisions to facilitate and encourage the extension of the breast-feeding period by working mothers…. These are additional responsibilities of institutions…. Tele-work does it the other way around.

This action is really a "women in the workplace" issue. In my situation the whole of society is a child care system where extended families accomplish childcare.

15.10 Conduct international feasibility study for the reduction of bribery.

Corporations would support this.  Get major private-sector leaders to improve credibility of study.... Work with Pino Arlacchi, Executive Director of the UN Drug Control Programme in Vienna, Austria…. Support external influences on the institution, but don't force it…. A feasibility study will be unable to get information.

15.11 Create systematic consideration of counter-intuitive ideas for institutional innovations.

Corporations give lip service to this, but no real action follows unless senior management gets involved. (See opportunity # 13)

15.12 Use Ted Turner's $US1 billion contribution to the UN as a campaign to raise money from other wealthy people for UN reform.

Individual philanthropy is a good idea. Maybe there ought to be a club of wealthy persons to concentrate the giving and attack specific problems with clout.... Ted Turner's US$1 billion gift was for UN programs not reform, but the UN Foundation, the intermediary organization handling the distribution of these funds to the UN, should consider reform and the recommendations in this Millennium Project report…. Prefer to see the money applied directly to problems rather than through the UN.

15.13 Assess research on how to reduce time from early warning to decision.

Not only to decision but implementation as well.... VERY INTERESTING. My company would support this…. The action does not seem to recognize that inertia is a legitimate decision-making tool and one may not wish to reduce time from early warming to decision…. The year 2000 computer problem (Y2K) would make a good case study.

15.14 US should pay its UN dues without conditions; not paying could encourage other nations to cut their payment and make up their own rules and conditions.

Other nations pay their dues without conditions on the UN, because they know that if they and others put conditions, it would hurt the UN.

Additional actions:

Institutional innovations focus too often on the urban situations neglecting rural institutions. Traditional and cultural wealth should be promoted. Loose formats for inter-institutional linkages or networks should be evolved.
An International "think tank" consisting of apolitical academic bodies that address the issues of institutional change should be created.  Perhaps an R&D for the UN and affiliated organizations should be initiated.  It is good that the Millennium Project has taken this up. The Millennium Project can form the initial nucleus for this, but later has to broaden its scope.

SUGGESTED ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY:

Achieving optimum human care in terms of physical, psychological and attitudinal awareness of children and the aged is developing, but the youth are being neglected.  Terrorism, AIDS etc. are early warning signals. An opportunity that specially addresses the attitudinal changes in youth should be framed.  They are the hope for the future.

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