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The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University and its sponsors, together with the Futures Studies and Research Center at Cairo University, have the honor to invite you to participate in a study designed to produce Middle East Peace scenarios. The purpose of the enclosed questionnaire is to collect a broad range of views on how peace might be achieved.

Futurists, social scientists, representatives of involved institutions and decisionmakers in the Middle East and elsewhere are being invited to participate through the Nodes of the Millennium Project, the Project's listserves, and the World Futures Study Federation.

The Millennium Project is a worldwide effort to collect and synthesize judgments about emerging global challenges that may affect the human condition. Its annual State of the Future and other special reports are used by decisionmakers and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions.

This first round questionnaire enclosed suggests some conditions that may be necessary for peace in the Middle East, and actions or options to help achieve them. You are invited to judge the importance, the likelihood, and backfire potential (for deleterious unintended consequences) of the items on the list and to suggest other necessary conditions and actions. The second round questionnaire will present the composite list and invite comments on the conditions/actions judged to be most important. Normative peace scenarios will be constructed from these responses. The third round will be a set of interviews with relevant decisionmakers and policy advisors to include their views on the results of the first rounds and draft scenarios. The decisionmakers' feedback will then be used to further develop alternative peace scenarios. These revised scenarios would then be sent for final critical review to the participants.

The Millennium Project plans to publish the results in the 2003 State of the Future and share the results with the international community. Those who respond to this questionnaire will receive a complementary edition of the 2003 State of the Future. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants.

Please contact us with any questions and return your responses to arrive at the AC/UNU Millennium Project by JANUARY 15, 2003. You will receive the second round in about two months, which will be based on the responses to the enclosed questionnaire. We look forward to including your views.

Sincerely yours,
Jerome C. Glenn, Director
Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Fellow
Kamal Zaki Mamoud, Chairman, Cairo Node

The initial set of suggested conditions for peace presented below, and the subsequent actions come from staff research and suggestions of the Project's Planning Committee, and build on the guiding principles in UN Security Council Resolutions 181, 242, 338/73, and the Oslo Accords. In this questionnaire you are invited to provide your judgments in the three columns provided about the importance, likelihood of implementation, and the backfire potential (for deleterious unintended consequences) of each item to achieve peace in the Middle East, and to add to this set. A second questionnaire, based on the results of this questionnaire, will follow in about two months.

You are not required to answer every question. Provide your judgments just about those items within your expertise and interest.

Since faxes and hand written responses may be difficult to read, please consider sending your response by email to make sure your views are recorded correctly. You can downloaded this questionnaire, fill it out on your computer off-line and then send it back by email. Or you can type your answers without the text of the questions and send an email, fax, or letter with just the question numbers and your responses:

Section 1:
1. # # #
1.1 # # #
1.2 # # #
etc.

Section 2:
Additional items
Please suggest other conditions and/or actions

Section 3:
Institutional affiliation and occupation

Please respond by 15 January 2003 and include your name, institutional affiliation and title, along with your post mail address, email, and fax number. All responses are confidential and no attributions will be made.

Please respond by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@att.com, or fax to +1-202-686-5179, or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA

Please provide judgments (using the scales below) about the importance, likelihood, and backfire potential of each item to the establishment of peace in Middle East. We ask that you consider yourself as a thoughtful mediator helping to resolve one of history's most difficult political and ethical dilemmas.

Please use the following scales to rate the conditions and actions in the table:

Importance
5 = must be achieved for peace to exist
4 = very effective in leading to peace
3 = effective but not essential
2 = not very effective
1 = counterproductive

Likelihood of Implementation
5 = very likely
4 = likely
3 = implies a lot of compromise
2 = almost impossible
1 = never achievable

Backfire Potential (for unintended deleterious consequences)
5= almost certain to backfire
4= very risky
3= as likely as not to backfire
2= minor chance
1= no chance to backfire
 

Section 2.
Please suggest other actions or conditions for peace in the Middle East that you strongly believe should be added to this study:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Section 3.

3.1 Please list your primary institutional affiliation and address below:
(No attributions will be made, but we need to know where to send the results of Round 1 in Round 2 and where to mail the 2003 State of the Future):
 

Your Name:

Title:

Organization:

Address:

City:

State:

Postal Codes:

E-Mail:

3.2. Please write the letter(s) corresponding to your profession in the brackets: [_______]

a) futurist, b) politician, c) military d) academic, e) religious, f) consultant g) other _______

Comments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Please respond by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@att.com, or fax to +1-202-686-5179, or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA

Thank you for your participation. You will receive the results in a couple of months.