Dear Colleague:
On behalf of the Millennium Project of The American Council for the United Nations University in cooperation with the Smithsonian Institution and The Futures Group International, and the Project sponsors, we have the honor to invite you to participate in the second round of the Global Lookout study on the regional significance of global challenges.
The Millennium Project is a world-wide effort to collect and synthesize judgments about emerging global issues and opportunities that may affect the human condition. The Project provides information to decisionmakers and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices and improve the quality of decisions. This is done by making future opportunities and warnings more explicit and by identifying a range of views from around the world on actions to address them.
While it is not necessary to examine the results of the previous research to complete the enclosed questionnaire, you may view it at the Project's Web site: www.millennium-project.org or www.stateofthefuture.org.
The results of this study will be published in the Millennial edition of the State of the Future. Those who respond to this questionnaire will receive a complimentary copy and will be listed in the report, but no attributions will be made.
The enclosed second round questionnaire is based on the results of the first round conducted earlier this year. That questionnaire asked two questions: first, the special significance of the 15 global challenges to the region of the participants, and second, indicators by which those challenges might be measured and tracked. You can download the results of that first round from http://millennium-project.org/millennium/rd1-99-results.html. If you experience problems in using this address, please go to http://millennium-project.org and access the results by selecting the "What's New" or "Global Lookout Study" buttons, then "1999 Round-1 results". You are encouraged to read the comments from your region on this web site and add your views via e-mail to the address in the instructions on the next page. This information about regional impacts will be used later, in interviews with decisionmakers around the world. The enclosed questionnaire pursues the investigation of indicators.
This is a long questionnaire - you do not have to rate all the indicators; instead, review the 15 challenges and then select just those in your experience and interest.
Please contact us if you have any questions and return the questionnaire by 23 November 1999.
Sincerely yours,
Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn
co-directors, AC/UNU Millennium Project
This second round asks for your judgments about the potential usefulness of some indicators by which the status of global challenges can be measured and tracked. Most of the indicators presented here were derived from the first round and earlier Millennium Project reports. Since the number of indicators suggested in the first round was large, a subset was selected on the basis of the following criteria (which we also ask you to use in answering this questionnaire):
You can also download this questionnaire from: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/rd2-99.html
Please complete the questionnaire and return it to us by 23 November 1999. Please respond by e-mail (preferred) to jglenn@igc.org with copy to acunu@igc.org and theogordon@compuserve.com; otherwise fax to 202-686-5179 or mail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA
You can type your answers without the text of the questions and send an e-mail, fax, or letter, as:
Challenge 1: 1.1 [the priority], [the sources]No matter which mode of response you choose, please include your name, affiliation, airmail address, phone, and fax number.
1.2 [the priority], [the sources]
1.3 [the priority], [the sources]
ETC
Challenge 2: 2.1.... etc.
Line 1 lists the challenge from the Millennium Project’s 15 challenges that we face at the Millennium as presented in the 1999 State of the Future.
Line 2 asks you to recommend books, articles, research or reports that answer that challenge.
Column 1 lists edited versions of some of the indicators that were suggested in Round 1 and from previous Millennium Project Research. You may suggest other indicators at the end of the given lists.
Column 2 asks for your judgments about the priority of the indicators. Please use the following scale:
5 = It is certain that data are currently being collectedIn Column 4, please list sources of data for high priority indicators; if necessary, put additional information about the indicators at the end of the questionnaire.
4 = It is likely that data are currently being collected
3 = Data are probably not being collected, but could be without too much difficulty
2 = Data are probably not being collected, and would be tough to collect
1 =Data would be almost impossible to collect
Please note that most of the indicators can refer to global, national, regional, or even local measures. We ask you to assume that the stated indicators are collected at the appropriate geographic levels.
The 15 Challenges as presented in the 1999 State of the Future:
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| 1. Composite indicator
of levels of economic growth, infant mortality, life expectancy, and living
standards
2. Assessment of total penalties imposed by courts for crimes against the environment 3. Levels of contributions by corporations to funds such as the Global Sustainable Development Facility (GSDF) 4. Government and industry R&D expenditures for zero or low emission technology and for other projects related to sustainable development 5. Level of trading in pollution permits 6. Percentage of ecologically based agriculture in total agriculture 7. Number of countries and companies that use ISO I4000 and I4001 8. Development and use of a "green" GDP; a system of national accounts that includes the economic impacts of the depletion of natural resources 9. Total and per capita energy consumption by type of user 10. Composite indicator of the per capita consumption of materials and generation of waste 11. Acres of land in uses associated with sustainability (e.g. reforestation, amount of land set aside as pristine reserves, and in low intensity agriculture) 12. Reserves of petroleum and key minerals 13. Measurements of the economic gap between rich and poor 14. Per capita expenditure on material goods versus expenditure on services 15. Calvert-Henderson quality of life indicators (http://www.calvertgroup.com) 16. Measures of biodiversity 17. CO2 emissions and other energy related air pollutants, by source 18. Average annual global temperature
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| 1. Percent of population
in the world by country and by region sufficiently supplied with clean
drinking water
2. Water consumption broken down into personal, industrial, and agricultural use 3. Cost of pure water 4. Numbers of international or bilateral treaties that document cooperative agreements on water rights 5. Number of governments that use water prices to improve efficiency of water usage 6. Funds allocated for water desalination research and development 7. Level of financial support for cleaning and creating new water sources 8. Prevalence of water borne diseases 9. Irrigation efficiencies 10. Measures of salinization, desertification and erosion 11. Rainfall and recharge rates 12. Percentage of water catchment from total rainfall 13. Changes in water tables 14. The level of pollutants (salt, agricultural runoffs, industrial and household wastes) in the waterways 15. Percentage of drip agriculture versus other forms 16. National and regional rates of investment in water infrastructure 17. Investment in Eco-awareness, education programs 18. Percentage of waste water that is treated before discharge
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| 1. Demographic measures:
e.g. population growth and fertility rates
2. Levels of urbanization and population density 3. Resources available (quantity and quality) per capita per region 4. Per capita consumption of various resources 5. Rate between commercial land development and effective open land used to maintain valuable ecosystem 6. Female literacy and access by women to education, communications and credit 7. Assessments of the effectiveness of family planning programs 8. Assessment of the adequacy of basic needs: food, shelter, security, health 9. Per capita health measures: doctors, nurses and other health service providers 10. Number of persons educated in programs on early childhood care and development 11. Extent of counter-material consumption advertising 12. Number of environmental refugees and displaced persons 13. Consumption rates of tobacco and animal fats and the
degenerative diseases they promote
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| 1. Differences in wealth
between upper and lower quintiles of population
2. Voter participation in and frequency and quality of free elections 3. Rates of economic development 4. Measurement of levels of corruption in government and society 5. Percentage of people voting during elections 6. Percentage of people voting for extreme, non-democratic parties 7. Assessment of levels of human rights, torture 8. Freedom of expression, as measured by the number and circulation of independent media 9. Percentage of population connected to the Internet 10. Oppressive military and arms sales 11. Extent of insurrection activity 12. Direct foreign investment in countries ruled by authoritarian regimes 13. Rate of funding for projects that benefit local people directly, and over which they have some say 14. Number of advanced training programs for senior political officials to discuss successful transition strategies in the areas of the rule of law, respect for human rights, free media, tolerance of political opposition, free elections, and an independent civil society 15. OECD democracy index, which allows immediate comparison among countries. It is composed of an assessment of political stability and indirect factors (i.e. concentration of media ownership) |
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| 1. Collection of examples
of successful use of global long-term perspectives in policy making
2. Funding of Futures research projects and long-term modeling 3. Extent of long range goals in strategic plans of public authorities and private enterprises 4. The development and rate of use of alternative decision making models. (e.g. through scanning of academic journals, government training programs) 5. Ratio of legislation on global issues in national legislatures 6. Number of top government officials who have served in foreign countries 7. Number of international advisors invited by policy making leaders 8. Measurement of progress towards goals of Agenda 21 9. Funding levels and quality of research activities relating to political and diplomatic activity, NATO cooperation, economic support 10. Number of courses offered in colleges and universities on morals, futures and decision making 11. The ratio of scientists and humanists in policy-making positions 12. Number of planning departments at government, ministry, regional levels 13. Collections of examples of successfully meeting a challenge or of greatly reducing its harmful effects as a result of early warning |
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| 1. Volume of e-business
2. Percentage of people with telephones, TV, computers, and Internet 3. Measures of the state of information and communications technologies (e.g. average annual internet user cost, progress of Moore’s law, cost of bandwidth, modem speeds, etc.) 4. Investments in information/ communication projects that foster local developments 5. Results of research that demonstrates the social consequences of TV and Internet programming 6. Measurements of the extent and properties of international networks 7. Number of robots 8. Monopolization rate of the communications industry 9. Number of students per computer(s) 10. Computer instruction; quantity and assessment of quality of information technologies taught at all levels in schools 11. Levels of Internet security, cases of on-line fraud 12. Measurements that depict the concentration of the telecommunications industry 13. Number of public libraries with free Internet access 14. Assessment of the levels of regulation over Internet content 15. Worldwide adoption rate of information technology
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rich and poor? |
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| 1. Measurements of
the economic gap between rich and poor
2. Percentage of people completing various level of education 3. Level of foreign aid, the nature of aid programs, and assessment of the consequences on poverty 4. The extent of charitable giving and volunteerism by individuals and corporations, where that giving is not tied to expectations of business return. 5. Number of foreign owned companies 6. Strength (e.g. membership and power) of trade union movements 7. Employment and unemployment statistics 8. Social Security policies and politics 9. Production and consumption of ethically produced products 10. Number of companies that pass an "ethics screen" 11. Measurement of levels of corruption in government and society 12. Percentage of middle class 13. Tax policies and the degree to which they are followed 14. Extent of training in conflict resolution and ethics being provided in schools, government, business, etc. 15. Extent and effectiveness of training programs designed to teach entrepreneurial skills 16. Spread of employee ownership plans 17. Number of share holders and the strata of the population they represent 18. Assessment of new mechanisms for reducing third world debt 19. Measurement of the extent and importance of currency speculation 20. Combined indicators of rates of internal saving, investment, internal consumption, exports, cost of living 21. Migration statistics 22. Magnitude of government expenditure on welfare programs (e.g. labor market intervention and health care) |
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| 1. Frequency and intensity
of new infestations/infections
2. Number of people vaccinated, by disease and geography, including the percentage paid for by states 3. Epidemiological use of hospital records 4. Mortality rates by causes 5. Pandemic frequencies 6. Number, size, and percentage of research programs designed to identify, deal with, and track immune microorganisms, viruses and globally relevant diseases 7. Inventory immune strains of microorganisms and viruses 8. Analysis of disease control mechanisms by nations 9. Assessment of preventative actions and support for system of public health 10. Extent of media coverage of this issue 11. Number of scientists and technicians employed to detect and combat epidemics 12. Rates of use of antibiotics 13. Percentage of health budget going into preventive health and health education 14. Life quality indicators 15. Percentage of safe good food and water, green foods and goods supply 16. Physicians and health care facilities per capita 17. Measurements of AIDS deaths and HIV prevalence |
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| 1. Record the past
track record of decision makers and their public statements and positions
on critical issues
2. Analysis of conflict avoidance and resolution activities 3. Recording the speed of problem anticipation, attentiveness to win-win solutions 4. Education of political leaders, including numbers who have education in futures, morals, and conflict resolution, and decision making 5. Assessments of media coverage of key issues and their biases 6. Degree of civility and compassion in governance 7. Level of use of information availability and flow between the electorate and government 8. Measurement of levels of corruption in government and society 9. Opinion polls about the correctness of decision making in government, particularly the attitudes of young people 10. Composite indicator of other 14 challenges indexes 11. Number of high-quality policy making institutions established 12. Number of high-quality researchers in this field (measured by their high-quality publications) 13. Degree of use of decision-making software and computer modeling in education 14. Measurement of the level of public involvement in governmental planning and decision making. 15. Number of countries or corporations adopting the "Bootstrap" strategy (analogous to number of companies adopting "Total Quality Management" strategies 16. Assessment of accountability, transparency, and participation in management of institutions 17. Assessment of the extent and influence of political campaign financing and its influence on decision making 18. Assessment of level of participation of NGOs in governmental decision making 19. Life quality indicators |
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| 1. Measurements of
income and wealth distribution; the economic gap between rich and poor
2. Levels of race, gender and age discrimination 3. Number of people killed in conflicts 4. Arms sales to various countries; tracking both sellers and buyers 5. Level of hate crime rate 6. Funding and status of UN permanent peacekeeping capabilities 7. Participation of ethnic minority groups in decision making and GDP 8. Assessment of level of human rights violations in various countries 9. The number of academic and educational publications (perhaps the number of papers) developing more inclusive international and national models for political interaction 10. Results of research on shared values 11. Recording and assessment of ethnic issues among the people of the same countries 12. Number and severity of ethnic issues and conflicts across the border 13. Tendency of media coverage in conflict issues 14. Number of refugees and displaced persons due to conflict 15. The number of days of peace and people not killed 16. Number of minority groups at risk because of political or economic discrimination and assessment of levels of risk 17. Assessment of the effectiveness of UN’s international criminal court and tribunals to punish those convicted of atrocious collective and communal violence 18. Levels of nuclear and biological stockpiles and assessments of their security 19. Levels of funding devoted to protection against terrorism 20. Levels of funding for programs that promote respect
for diversity and equal rights
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| 1. Rate of gender violence
2. Female literacy and access by women to education, communications and credit 3. Women's socioeconomic status correlated with overall quality of life level 4. Assessment of reform of inheritance rights for women 5. Assessments of the effectiveness of family planning programs 6. Ratio of women to men in various occupations and management levels 7. Comparison of pay for similar work by men and women 8. Number of women in international, national, regional, state and local government; % of women in policy making and decision making 9. Number of women and children in poverty 10. Percentage of women who head families 11. Assessment of family problems with young people especially 12. Assessment of age and gender related laws, safety nets, and biases 13. Number of discrimination and harassment suits 14. Number of international agreements and declarations related to the status of women, and ratified, by countries and regions 15. Focused welfare statistics of minority groups 16. Surveys of how people feel about their own groups and minority groups, and about their expectations 17. Comparison of school scores or achievement tests between male and female students 18. Extent of loans and credits to women 19. Reform of inheritance rights for women 20. Assessment of progress toward Platform for Action, passed by the UN Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing 1995 21. Number of NGOs related to gender justice and that promote gender, and age group equality 22. Rate of births to adolescent mothers
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| 1. Crime and gambling
statistics
2. Statistics relating to illegal drugs and prostitution 3. Estimates of the total cash value of organized crimes 4. Apprehension and seizures of weapons 5. Illegal money flows and "laundering" 6. Value of confiscated drugs and contraband 7. Number of ethics programs in primary and secondary education 8. Measurement of levels of corruption in government and society 9. Number of illegal entries of crime-related foreigners 10. Level of legal business activities conducted by crime organizations 11. Press stories dealing with organized crime: number and quality 12. Market prices for criminal goods and services 13. Number of financial institutions and individuals identified, arrested, and prosecuted as being related to organized crimes 14. Number of countries adopting internationally consistent laws and regulations against organized crimes 15. Level of intelligence exchanges about crime and criminals
(personnel, system, and informational level)
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| 1. Energy/GDP ratio
2. Total and per capita energy consumption by type of user 3. Total and per capita energy usage by category of source (fossil, wind, solar, nuclear, etc.) 4. Energy production by source, including particularly the amount generated by fossil, hydro, nuclear and alternate energy sources (e.g. wind, solar) 5. Percentage of recycling by category (metals, etc.) 6. Number of nuclear plants waiting to be closed 7. The number and extent of limitations placed on the use of various forms of energy 8. Transportation energy by source (petroleum, natural gas, electricity, etc.) 9. Level of social dependence on energy to maintain the existing structures 10. Efficiency and production of non-polluting energy generation technologies 11. Expenditures on energy related R&D, including disposal of nuclear wastes and advanced energy systems 12. Type and amount of initiatives to change behavior, rather than just reduce energy consumption 13. Types of active and retired plants: nuclear, hydropower, etc. 14. Environmentally adjusted net domestic product 15. Share of manufactured goods in total merchandise exports 16. Share of natural-resource intensive industries in manufacturing 17. Environmental protection expenditures as a percent of GDP 18. Level of support being given by governments to actively encourage renewable sources 19. Energy prices and levels of subsidies by governments that affect energy prices artificially 20. Projected future energy demand by category of user and source, and potential energy capacity from renewable and non-renewable sources |
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| 1. Investments in R&D
(both basic and applied) by governments and companies, counting particularly
expenditures in advanced areas including solar, health; in a) absolute
terms, b) percentage of GDP, and c) per capita
2. Expenditures for research into consequences of technology (e.g. the ethics component of the Human Genome Project) 3. Measurement of the pace of new announcements in popular and scientific media and assessment of their applicability to major and megaproblems 4. Number of patents in selected fields 5. Assessment of emphasis on 'quality' of life issues in popular and scientific media 6. Number of researchers and percentage, by field and country 7. Count of new problem solving technologies and their use (e.g. ecological technologies, hectares of reanimated soil, levels of public health, reduced number of working days, etc.) 8. Number of students following science and technology careers, and the level of "ethics" education these students receive 9. Level of technological investments outside of large companies and large cities 10. Income from R&D investment per capita 11. Number of scientists having papers in well-known publications in the world; number of papers published on international journals each year 12. Number of countries or corporations adopting the "Bootstrap" strategy (analogous to number of companies adopting "Total Quality Management" strategies 13. Standard of life indicators (public health, reduced number of working days, aged population socially active, etc.) 14. Level of funding to adapt inventions to local conditions 15. Level of social and participatory approaches involved in assessing and funding technology 16. Assessment of progress on all technological frontiers 17. Science road maps depicting the likely future course of several disciplines 18. Extent of international scientific collaboration 19. The cost of transportation to orbit |
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| 1. Measurement of levels
of corruption in government and society
2. Extent of coverage in local papers, radio and TV news on ethical issues 3. Longitudinal surveys measuring values and opinions about whether ethical circumstances are changing and their change direction 4. Development of a measure of nepotism and "cronyism" (a mild form of corruption) 5 Measurement of the level of non-state actors in global institutions, notably for religious bodies (e.g. Churches) and charities (e.g. Oxfam) in UN, EU and other global and regional organizations 6. Count of words ethics/ethical in government output 7. Social capital indicators like: the quantity of citizens' organizations and initiatives; quality of citizens' activities ethical terms; ethical atmosphere in terms of trust and global ethics 8. Extent of training in conflict resolution and ethics being provided in schools, government, business etc. 9. Number and type of terrorists incidents and ethnic conflicts 10. Count of the numbers of companies with published moral codes and assessment of how their programs expressed those values 11. Voter participation in and frequency and quality of free elections 12. Assessment of the degree to which groups and countries maintain or develop their own cultural identity as a counterbalance of globalization 13. Assessment of the extent and power of lobbying groups |
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If you have other suggestions, please add them below, using the relevant
number of the Challenge. Please also go to http://millennium-project.org/millennium/rd1-99-results.html,
select your region, and see if you would like to add your views. If so,
please send them to jglenn@igc.org
with copy to acunu@igc.org and theogordon@compuserve.com.
Thank you for your participation.
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