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The recent events in Iraq remind us why it is important for international collaboration to build peace scenarios. The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, its sponsors, and the Cairo Node of the Millennium Project have the honor to invite you to participate in Round 2 of a study designed to produce Middle East Peace scenarios with a primary focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The purpose of the enclosed questionnaire is to collect a broad range of views on how peace might be achieved.

Futurists, social scientists, representatives of involved institutions and decisionmakers in the Middle East and elsewhere participated in Round 1 and are again being invited to participate through the Millennium Project Nodes, the Project's listserves, and the World Futures Study Federation.

The Millennium Project is a worldwide effort to collect and synthesize judgments about emerging global challenges that may affect the human condition. Its annual State of the Future and other special reports  are used by decisionmakers and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions.

The first round asked participants to rate options or actions that might help achieve several pre-conditions for peace and to suggest others. The results are included in the enclosed Round 2 for your information. This second round questionnaire invites you to judge these additional suggestions as to their importance, likelihood, and backfire potential (the possibility of making the situation worse). You are also invited to select several options or actions about which you have special insight and briefly explain a strategy for their implementation. Lastly, you are asked how external developments like the war in Iraq may change peace strategies.

Based on the results of Round 2, draft scenarios will be written and shared with relevant decisionmakers, policy advisors, and opinion leaders. The leaders will be interviewed to include their views to further develop alternative peace scenarios.

The Millennium Project plans to publish the results of the study to-date in the 2003 State of the Future and to share the results with the international community. Those who respond to this questionnaire will receive a complimentary copy of the 2003 State of the Future. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants, unless we are requested otherwise.

Please contact us with any questions and return your responses to arrive at the AC/UNU Millennium Project by May 1, 2003. We look forward to including your views.

Sincerely yours,

Jerome C. Glenn, Director
Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Fellow
Kamal Zaki Mamoud, Chairman, Cairo Node

An initial set of potential conditions for peace and actions to help achieve these conditions were given in Round 1. These were developed from staff research, the Cairo Node of the Millennium Project, suggestions of the Project's Planning Committee, and built on the guiding principles in UN Security Council Resolutions 181, 242, 338, 373, and the Oslo Accords. These were rated by the respondents to Round 1 using the scale below. The results are provided in the tables below.

The participants in Round 1 were also asked to suggest addition actions. These suggestions were distilled and edited by staff and are presented in italics for your judgments. Please use the following scales to rate these additional suggestions:

Importance
5 = must be achieved for peace to exist
4 = very effective in leading to peace
3 = effective but not essential
2 = not very effective
1 = counterproductive

Likelihood of Implementation
5 = very likely
4 = likely
3 = implies a lot of compromise
2 = almost impossible
1 = never achievable

Backfire Potential (for unintended deleterious consequences)
5= almost certain to backfire
4= very risky
3= as likely as not to backfire
2= minor chance
1= no chance to backfire

You are not required to answer every question. Provide your judgments just about those items within your expertise and interest.

Since faxes and hand written responses may be difficult to read, please consider sending your response by email to make sure your views are recorded correctly. This questionnaire can also be downloaded as MsWord dcument. In this way you can fill out the questionnaire on your computer off-line and then send it back by email.

All responses are confidential and no attributions will be made. Please respond by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@att.com, or fax to +1-202-686-5179, or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA

Using the scales in the Instructions, please enter your judgments in the blank cells about the importance, likelihood, and backfire potential of the new actions listed in italics suggested in Round 1. The averaged judgments of the participants on the initial list given in Round 1 (using the same scale) appear in the three columns.
 
 

Necessary condition for peace / actions--options	Importance	Likelihood	Backfire Potential
1. Provide secure borders for Israel
1.1 Israeli withdrawal from all areas occupied since the 1967 war	4.28	2.85	3.20
1.2 Resume the Peace Process on the bases of UN resolutions	4.22	3.43	2.77
1.3 Enact a UN General Assembly resolution that clearly defines the borders and is enforced by a UN Security Council resolution	3.83	3.07	3.03
1.4 Recognition of Israel as an independent state by all Arab states	4.45	3.12	2.76
1.5 Deploy international observers	3.77	3.68	2.62
1.6 Install a high-technology sensor system on borders to detect clandestine motion	2.88	3.41	2.93
1.7 Place UN peacekeeping forces in areas of conflict or potential conflict	3.59	3.45	2.89
1.8 Acceptance by Palestine of the right for Israel to integrate Jewish laws and traditions in their government
1.9 Require that any agreement involving Israel and the Palestinians be shared in and supported by most Arab states.
1.10 Urge that agreements survive regime changes within Israel.
1.11 Try to ensure that any agreement represents the view of the people of both sides, not just the ruling powers.
1.12 Create a new federal state, which would comprise the two relatively autonomous regions of Israel and Palestine.
1.13 In all Israel-Palestine negotiating teams, women peacemakers, politicians, academics and professionals be equally represented on both sides.
2. Establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state
2.1 Enact a UN General Assembly resolution that clearly defines the borders and is enforced by a UN Security Council resolution	4.33	3.38	3.07
2.2 Recognize Palestine as a sovereign UN member state	4.50	3.62	3.00
2.3 Withdraw Israeli military forces from occupied and/or disputed territories they control.	4.45	3.18	3.19
2.4 Succession of President Yasser Arafat by free supervised elections.	3.50	3.25	3.01
2.5 Acceptance by Israel of the right of Palestine to integrate Muslim laws and practices within their government.
2.6 Require that any agreement involving Israel and the Palestinians be shared in and supported by most Arab states.
2.7 Urge that agreements survive regime changes within a new Palestinian state.
2.8 Try to ensure that any agreement represents the view of the people of both sides, not just the ruling power(s).
2.9 Hold democratic Palestinian elections.
2.10 Create a new democratic Palestinian constitution.
2.11 Encourage representative governments whose goal will be the well being of their populations by providing an economic environment in which populations can earn a decent living and develop a political environment in which people can express their opinions without fear for their lives.
2.12 Establish the right of the Palestinian state to exist without interference from any foreign party.
2.13 Create a new federal state, which would comprise the two relatively autonomous regions of Israel and Palestine.
2.14 As anticipated in the Quartet (EU, Russia, UN, US) roadmap, pursue any peace plan in well-defined phases, testing the results of one before proceeding to the next.
2.15 In all Israel-Palestine negotiating teams, women peacemakers, politicians, academics and professionals be equally represented on both sides.
3. Resolution of the Jerusalem question
3.1 Declare Jerusalem an International City	3.71	2.87	3.10
3.2 Develop a plan for peacefully sharing holy sites	4.25	3.38	2.97
3.3 Enact a clear, definite UN General Assembly resolution with enforcement, stipulating the areas that are under the governance of Israel and Palestine based on previous Security Council Resolutions.	3.86	3.18	3.10
3.4 Establish a UN Trusteeship	3.25	2.90	2.70
3.5 Reduce the size of the city of Jerusalem to its pre-'67 borders	2.76	2.40	3.48
3.6 Establish a time sharing governance between Israel and Palestine	2.22	2.10	3.25
3.7 Build a "Berlin Wall"	1.42	2.17	3.62
3.8 Guarantee free access to holy sites	4.17	3.44	2.88
3.9 Guarantee religious rights of all creeds in Jerusalem	4.41	3.67	2.78
3.10 Return to pre-1967 war sovereignty arrangements for Jerusalem as stipulated by the UN resolution 242.
4. End violence by both sides and build confidence
4.1 Israel withdraws its settlements to the pre-'67 line.	4.14	2.81	3.14
4.2 Accept Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz proposal [that calls for Israel’s withdrawal from lands occupied in 1967 and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and then all the Arab States will recognize Israel as a state].	3.96	3.21	3.00
4.3 Establish a UN Security Council resolution banning further violent actions, which would be enforced.	3.52	3.20	3.04
4.4 End suicide bombings.	4.35	2.83	2.83
4.5 End Israeli occupation of land obtained during 1967 war.	4.22	2.88	3.14
4.6 Assign long-term UN peacekeeping forces in both countries.	3.72	3.32	3.03
4.7 Establish many UN-funded citizens conflict resolution/dialogue groups to learn and practice peace-building skills.	3.83	3.46	2.64
4.8 Ban any aid in weapons (or funds intended for weapons) to both sides.	3.90	2.57	2.93
4.9 Establish an International Tribunal that would try civilians and/or leaders from Palestine and Israel accused of heinous crimes.	3.35	2.65	3.05
4.10 Place an international peacekeeping force in the area--outside the the UN jurisdiction.	2.82	2.72	3.25
4.11 Accelerate the "children exchange" program between Israeli and Palestinian children to promote peace and coexistence.	3.52	3.28	2.60
4.12 Initiate UN inspections to ensure that human rights are being respected.	3.66	3.30	2.80
4.13 Promote women activist groups to cultivate peace ideas in the family environment.	3.64	3.34	2.52
4.14 Implement a vigorous energy program in western countries to reduce dependency on oil.	3.31	2.95	2.43
4.15 Create additional venues where moderates of both sides can talk to each other.	3.88	3.78	2.39
4.16 Honor international commitments in good faith.	4.04	3.27	2.45
4.17 Cooperation to combat terrorism.	4.12	3.28	2.75
4.18 Cooperation to combat all types of organized crime.	4.00	3.20	2.61
4.19 Restrict US funding of Israel to economic needs only.
4.20 Build a new geopolitical order in the Middle East, i.e. temporary Western dominance aiming at a prolonged process of democracy-building (more possible after the war in Iraq).
4.21 Launch common infrastructure projects based on social, economic needs and existing inequalities.
4.22 Re-establish a Palestinian national culture and identity that is not based on their post-Israel experience so that there is a sense of Palestinian pride.
4.23 Unilateral end to violence by Palestinians to deprive Israeli government of reasons to keep hawks in power.
4.24 Unilateral end to violence by Israel to deprive Palestinians of a principal reason for continuation of violence.
4.25 Ratification by Israel of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty.
4.26 Require the US to maintain a more balanced political position and avoid real or perceived pro-Israel bias.
4.27 As anticipated in the Quartet (EU, Russia, UN, US) roadmap, pursue any peace plan in well-defined phases, testing the results of one before proceeding to the next.
4.28 Recognize the need for international intervention without interference in the right of the Palestinian people to maintain their own vision regarding their historical and political right to live on their own homeland
5. Social and Economic Development
5.1 Negotiate long-term water sharing agreements.	4.42	3.46	2.64
5.2 Encourage free trade with both a new Palestinian State and Israel.	4.04	3.42	2.58
5.3 Promote Palestinian access to world markets.	4.07	3.50	2.51
5.4 Normalize travel between both states, controlled only by passports and visas.	3.88	3.10	2.93
5.5 Establish special international programs under UN umbrella to encourage industrial and technological development for the Palestinian state.	4.11	3.55	2.55
5.6 Establish a Palestinian Reconstruction Fund by Arab countries.	3.93	3.54	2.60
5.7 Create Trade agreements that promote trade between Israel and Palestine.	3.74	3.20	2.50
5.8 Establish a program of technology transfer from Israel to the Palestinian state to improve agriculture and economic development.	3.58	2.98	2.61
5.9 Encourage direct foreign investment in the new Palestinian state.	4.05	3.34	2.65
5.10 Create local participatory planning processes connected to development budget decisionmaking (similar to Shrouk in Egypt) to help restore dignity and faith in the future.	4.06	3.42	2.42
5.11 Assure free movement of investments to all the nations of the region.	3.82	3.25	2.63
5.12 Redistribute the US economic aid so that Palestine gets a larger share.
5.13 Encourage representative governments in a Palestinian state whose goal will be the well being of their populations by providing an economic environment in which populations can earn a decent living and develop a political environment where they can express their opinions without fear for their lives.
5.14 Guarantee free access and stability to the hundreds of thousands of peaceful Palestine employees and people who run small enterprises in West Jordan and Gaza.
5.15 Establish a "Marshall Plan" under international control for impoverished Palestinian areas.
5.16 Create and sign a peace agreement between the Muslim and Jewish religious leaders.
5.17 End mandatory service in the Israeli Army.
5.18 Begin the difficult process of separating religion and state for both Arab Moslems and Israeli Jews. Israel agrees to be a civil state with a Jewish majority and a new civil Palestinian state is created with a Moslem majority.
5.19 Form a league (e.g. Middle East Union for Economy & Development) with Israel as a permanent member, with the Arab countries represented, for discussion and resolution of common economic and social issues.
5.20 Foster development of a specific set of "next generation" leaders from both sides that can look at the problem in a new way.
6. Education
6.1 Create via UNESCO scholars curricula for introduction to school systems in the Middle East that provides unbiased historical awareness and information designed to teach tolerance	4.21	3.40	2.39
6.2 Create joint Israeli-Palestinian task force of scholars that would write together the history of Middle East for classrooms with particular focus on Israel and Palestine.	3.83	2.95	2.51
6.3 Begin internationally monitored media coverage on both sides that would condemn violence against the other side and would show the downside of their own violent acts.	3.89	3.19	2.76
6.4 Invest in Palestinian educational infrastructure to bring it to par with Israel.	4.07	3.25	2.43
6.5 Organize cultural symposiums with religious leaders from both sides to discuss ways to cultivate tolerance and peace.	3.97	3.39	2.49
6.6 Provide Equal access to education for women.	4.18	3.33	2.48
6.7 Create a new story and vision of what it means to be Palestinian and Israeli.	3.78	3.04	2.55
6.8 Produce a movie based on the results of this study to show how many different elements can come together to achieve peace.	3.39	3.42	2.37
6.9 Challenge worldviews of each by creating a Jewish-Palestinian dialog that focuses on Abraham, the father of each religion.	3.35	3.13	2.74
6.10 Create a fund for joint projects in cooperative research.
6.11 Introduce military service or extended civil service and additional taxes to ultra-orthodox Jewish fundamentalists/ settlers, so that they bear the burdens of war like the other Israeli people.
6.12 Introduce a five percent requirement to Israeli and Palestine parliaments to reduce the extraordinary influence of small extreme parties on governmental policy, according to the example of several European countries.
6.13 Include the teachings of Buddha, Hindu principles of tolerance and the Gandhian ideas of Ahimsa and Non-violence in the school curriculum in Israel and Palestine.
6.14 Promote cultural and artistic activities so one side can know the culture of the other.
6.15 Inculcate a mindset of co-existing in spite of differences by educating the younger generation on the need for tolerance and unconditional love.
7. Resolution of Palestinian refugee status
7.1 Provide Palestinians the right to return to Israel as Israeli citizens.	3.61	2.70	3.37
7.2 Create an Israeli-Palestinian commission, which would negotiate an agreement specifying a particular number of Palestinians who would have the right to return to Israel.	3.72	3.01	3.10
7.3 Initiate International inspections under UN to assure that human rights are being respected.	3.92	3.43	2.78
7.4 Assure the right to repatriation and compensation according to existing General Assembly resolutions.	3.90	3.26	2.97
7.5 Create a new country--the United States of Israel-Palestine. As citizens, Palestinians would have the right to return to Israel and Israelis would be able to stay in the West Bank and Gaza strip.
7.6 Create an Israeli-Palestinian commission, which would negotiate an agreement specifying a particular number of Palestinians who would have the right to return to Israel and Israeli people who could remain in the Palestine areas.
7.7 Dissolve the "Palestine-refugee-camps/quarters" in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and so on, or turn them into common, fully equipped city-quarters with mixed population.

Section 2.

2.1 Please select three or more actions from the full list in Section 1 (both initial list and additional suggestions in italics). The ones you select should be actions about which you have special insight into their possible implementation. Please use the numbers associated with the actions listed above.

Your responses will be used to help give further details for the construction of peace scenarios. For each item you select, please consider including:

• Your strategy to make the action occur and become an effective contribution to peace.
• Who might act and how would they get movement toward peace
• When might this be done
• What would improve chances for success

Implementation strategies:

First Strategy:
 
 

Second Strategy:
 
 

Third Strategy:
 
 

2.2 How might external developments such as the war in Iraq change strategies that could lead to peace in the region?
 
 

Please list your primary institutional affiliation and address below:
(No attributions will be made, but we need to know where to mail the 2003 State of the Future):

Your Name:
Title:
Organization:
Address:

City: State/Country: Postal Code:

E-Mail:

3.2. Please write the letter(s) corresponding to your profession in the brackets: [_______]

a) futurist, b) politician, c) military d) academic, e) religious professional, f) consultant, g) other _______________________________
 

Additional Comments:
 
 
 

Please respond by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@att.com, or fax to +1-202-686-5179, or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA. Thank you for your participation. We plan to send you the results in the 2003 State of the Future in August.