AC/UNU Millennium Project
Future Issues of Science and Technology
-Round 2-
Invitation
On
behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations
University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in a global assessment
of future issues of science and technology.
You have been selected by your country's Science Attach‚ to Washington,
D.C. and/or by the senior advisers of the Millennium Project, because of the
depth and breadth of your knowledge in areas that are critical to this study.
The
Millennium Project is a worldwide system for collecting and synthesizing
judgments about emerging global challenges that may affect the human condition.
Its annual State of the Future and other special reports are used by decision-makers
and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve
the quality of decisions. The Millennium Project is sponsored by the
organizations listed below with an additional grant for this S&T study from
the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. It is also supported by senior personnel and institutions
(called project "Nodes") in eleven regions around the world. The
viewpoints contained within this S&T study and other Millennium Project
reports are those of the international community. They are not views governed or even necessarily shared by the
primary sponsors. Rather, the sponsors
share a fundamental interest in the future and how different scenarios,
suggested by ideas such as yours, provide insights that can help them plan and
prepare for different possibilities.
The
objective of this three-year S&T study is to seek a broad range of
international perspectives on the emerging issues and forces that are likely to
influence science and technology programs and their management in the next 25
years. This study is intended to provide useful information in setting
long-term goals and strategies.
During
the first year, the study is exploring these issues through a two-round
questionnaire (the second round is enclosed). The second year will focus on the
implications of the first year's results for S&T management. In the third
year science and technology policy consequences will be made explicit through
the use of alternative scenarios.
Those
who respond to this questionnaire will receive the results in a complementary
copy of the next edition of the State of the Future. No attributions will be
made, but respondents will be listed as participants. The results of Round 1
have already proven of interest to the national and international scientific
communities, and the institutions that fund such research. We have included
highlights of Round 1 for your information.
Please
contact us if you have any questions or need clarification about this request,
and return your
responses
to arrive at the AC/UNU Millennium Project by 30 April 2001. We look forward to including your views, and
to sharing with you the overall results of this research.
Sincerely yours,
Jerome C. Glenn, Director, AC/UNU Millennium Project
Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow, AC/UNU Millennium Project
Current Sponsors: Deloitte & Touche, General Motors, United Nations University, U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute, and U.S. Department of Energy. Inkind: Smithsonian Institution and Futures Group International
Round 1 Highlights
Future Issues of Science and Technology
Round 1 asked the panel to rate the
importance of a list of 14 questions about future issues of science and
technology. The results are show in
Table 1: Rating of candidate questions about future issues of S&T. In
addition to these candidate questions, the panel suggested 71 new questions. These additions
were distilled to 19 by the Millennium Project staff, and then rated as to
their importance by the study’s steering committee and Science Attaches to
Washington, D.C. This process further
reduced the list to 7 questions that are included for your consideration in
Round 2.
The
respondents to Round 1 also rated actions, developments, and/or answers that
were given as possible ways to address the candidate questions. These results are included in Round 2.
An
additional 210 new actions, developments, and/or answers were suggested by the
respondents in Round 1 to address the candidate questions. These have also been
distilled and included for your consideration in Round 2.
Finally,
Round 1 included a section on national S&T priorities. Panelists were asked what would be the best
investments in basic science, applied science, and technology for their
country's future. They were also asked what were their country's current
S&T priorities and the major S&T challenges important to their country
that would (or do already) benefit from an international collaborative,
interdisciplinary approach. The answers to these questions will be included in
the next State of the Future to be published in July 2001 and at http://acunu.org, along with all results from both
rounds of this study.
There were some regional differences among the respondents as to which issues were the most important for their countries. Europeans rated concerns about ethics and biotechnology higher than other regions.
Although more optimistic about the future of S&T than other regions and stressing improvements to science education, North Americans judged “What potential catastrophes could change the world within the next 25 years which science might help to avoid?” as the most important for their countries to address.
The question “What will help bridge the S&T gap between developed and developing countries?” was rated the highest by the Middle Eastern respondants. South Asia rated “How can the chasm between scientists and non-scientists be bridged?” more important than any other region.
Looking across all regions, biotechnology was rated the top national investment in the categories of applied science and international cooperation, and it tied with computers and information systems within the broader category of current national S&T priorities. Education was rated the top national investment in basic science, while energy was rated the top national investment in technology.
Almost everyone considered low cost and safe energy, medicine, and water as leading priorities for S&T, but we have known of these problems for several decades. Despite considerable attention and significant scientific and technological advances in these areas, one could ask why hasn’t S&T solved them yet?
Because science and technology can now pose unintentional as well as intentional future threats that go far beyond almost anything experienced in the past, the issue of scientific sovereignty has come into question. Under what conditions and under whose authority can society intervene in the course of basic science?
The panel used the scale below to rate the list of 14 candidate questions given in Round 1. To reduce the size of Round 2, the results were used to eliminate the three least important questions.
Round 1 scale: If the question could be answered, the answers would be:
5 = Of overwhelming importance/priority
4 = Of great significance
3 = Of some significance
2 = Of minor significance
1 = Counterproductive
Table 1: Average ratings of
candidate questions about future issues of S&T from Round 1
|
Original No. |
Questions |
Importance Globally |
Priority to my Country |
|
1 |
What challenges can science pursue whose resolution would significantly
improve the human condition? |
4.47 |
4.04 |
|
13 |
What potential catastrophes could change the world within the
next 25 years which science might help to avoid? |
4.14 |
3.70 |
|
2 |
What future applications of science or scientific research have
the greatest potential for danger to human survival? |
4.08 |
3.62 |
|
5 |
What will help bridge the S&T gap between developed and
developing countries? |
4.06 |
3.59 |
|
3 |
What are the principal factors that will influence science over
the next 25 years? |
3.93 |
3.71 |
|
6 |
What emerging technologies are likely to have the most positive
economic impact over the next 25 years? |
3.92 |
3.96 |
|
4 |
What are some seminal, key, or profound scientific developments
that might occur during the next 25 years? |
3.86 |
3.63 |
|
10 |
How can ethical consequences be more thoroughly considered in
S&T management? |
3.82 |
3.74 |
|
7 |
What are the key emerging international issues in S&T over
the next 25 years? |
3.80 |
3.65 |
|
8 |
How can science improve management of the risks induced by
scientific research and its applications? |
3.77 |
3.54 |
|
14 |
How can the chasm be bridged between scientists and
non-scientists regarding their views on the nature of science, other ways of
knowing, social construction, and directions for scientific inquiry? |
3.75 |
3.67 |
|
12 |
Which scientific fields have the greatest potential to improve
the other fields of science? |
3.64 |
3.54 |
|
9 |
How can integrity in scientific research be improved? |
3.55 |
3.32 |
|
11 |
How might public perceptions of science change over the next 25
years? |
3.43 |
3.45 |
So, where are we now in this three-year process? Round 2 is the second and last questionnaire for the first year of this study. The results will be published in July 2001, and used as a basis to explore the implications for S&T management in the second year.
Round 1 Round
2
-------X---------------X-----------|-----------------------------------|---------------------------------
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Science & Tech. Issues Implications for Management Alternative Scenarios
Round 2 – General Instructions
Future Issues of Science and Technology
Round 2 has two sections. Section 1 deals with the original set of S&T questions; it provides the panel’s ratings from Round 1 and asks you to rate the newly suggested actions in the space provided. Section 2 deals with the new set of S&T questions and you are asked to rate an initial set of answers to these questions and to suggest additional items.
You are not requested to answer every question. Just provide your judgments about those
items within your expertise and interest.
Since faxes (including handwritten responses) may be difficult to read, please consider sending your response by email to make sure your views are recorded correctly. This questionnaire can be downloaded, filled out on your computer off-line and then sent back by email. Alternatively, you can type your answers without the text of the questions and send them as an email, fax, or letter with just the question numbers and your responses. For example:
Section 1
1.1 # # #
1.2 # # #
1.3 # # #
etc.
Section
2
1A # # #
1B # # #
etc.
text of additional answers
etc.
Of the original list of 14 questions, questions 9, 11, and 12 are not included in Round 2 because they were rated lowest in importance; thus, allowing the questionnaire to be shortened. The answers for the deleted questions will still be included in the appendix of the final report.
Please respond by 30 April 2001 and include your name, institutional affiliation and title, along with your post mail and email addresses and fax number. All responses are confidential, and no attributions will be made.
Please respond by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@worldnet.att.com or fax to +1-202-686-5179 or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016, USA.
Round
2
Future
Issues of Science and Technology
Section 1
A list of suggested developments, actions, and/or answers to the candidate questions was provided in Round 1. The panel was asked to rate these suggestions.
The following tables present the
average ratings for those items with respect to importance and likelihood, and
confidence of the panel about their judgments. Panelists were also asked to
suggest additions to the list. The average of the responses are listed below. If you would like to add comments to any of the items,
please do so at the end under “Additional Comments” and include the number of
the item.
In the context of this study, the attributes of important items include: scope (the number of people affected), significance (the amount of the impact), and permanence (irreversibility of the impact). The following scales were used for rating the developments/actions in Round 1. Please use the same scale in rating the new suggestions to address the questions:
Importance (Import) Likelihood
(Likeli) Confidence
(Confid)
5 = Of overwhelming importance 5 = Almost certain by
2025 5 = Almost certain
4 = Extremely important 4 =
Likely 4
= Very confident
3 = Very important 3
= As likely as not 3
= Confident
2 = Important 2 = Unlikely 2 =
Somewhat confident
1 = Trivial 1 =
Almost impossible by 2025 1 = Not
confident
1.
What challenges can science pursue whose resolution would significantly improve
the human condition?
|
Actions/Developments/Answers |
Import |
Likeli |
Confid |
|
1C. Commercial availability of a cheap,
efficient, environmentally benign, non-nuclear fission and non-fossil fuel means
of generating base load electricity, competitive in price with today's fossil
fuels. |
4.38 |
2.98 |
3.29 |
|
1F. Simple, inexpensive, effective medicines
and corresponding delivery systems to treat widespread diseases and
epidemics. |
4.27 |
3.48 |
3.24 |
|
1A. Improving the efficiency of water use in
agriculture by 75%. |
4.21 |
3.44 |
3.14 |
|
1H. Climate change - understanding and
solutions. |
4.18 |
3.12 |
3.17 |
|
1G. Improvements in early detection and
tracking systems of pandemics. |
4.07 |
3.78 |
3.26 |
|
1B. Cheap, efficient, means for providing
potable water from salt or brackish sources at prices comparable to naturally
available water in quantities sufficient to ease global water issues. |
4.01 |
3.31 |
3.08 |
|
1I. Advanced computation and artificial
intelligence. |
3.62 |
3.93 |
3.61 |
|
1E. Demonstration of the possibility of an
environmentally, economically, and culturally sustainable city of at least 1
million people. |
3.48 |
2.97 |
3.23 |
|
1D. Demonstrate methods to improve collective
intelligence while reducing anti-social behavior. |
3.34 |
2.56 |
2.92 |
|
1K. The capacity to manufacture food, goods,
and machines atom by atom very cheaply. |
3.24 |
2.55 |
2.99 |
|
1L. Modifying the human germline (the genes
passed on to future generations) to enhance health and intelligence, and
reduce violent and anti-social behavior. |
2.90 |
2.87 |
2.89 |
|
1J. Human communities in space beyond earth -
beginnings of space migration |
2.34 |
2.37 |
3.20 |
|
Please
rate the following new items suggested in Round 1: 1. Developing
advanced strong, lightweight materials that do not corrode, are highly
resistant to wear, and easy to recycle. |
|
|
|
|
2. Developing small-scale
biogas/biofuels generators. |
|
|
|
|
3. Developing an efficient,
inexpensive (e.g. photochemical) process to produce hydrogen from water. |
|
|
|
|
4. Efficient energy storage systems including, for example, spinning wheels,
gravitational energy, chemical energy, direct electric energy (cryogen
magnets, plasma or ball lightning), hydrogen storage, fuel cells, and
developing inexpensive lightweight batteries with a power density comparable
to gasoline, little capacity loss over thousands of charge-discharge cycles,
and that can be completely and efficiently recycled. |
|
|
|
|
5. Nanofiltering devices for
water purification and recycling in households. |
|
|
|
|
6. Developing methods for increasing
human creativity. |
|
|
|
|
7. Preserving biological and
cultural diversity. |
|
|
|
|
8. Understanding the nature
of living matter. |
|
|
|
|
9. Reaching deeper understanding of the quantum foundations of physics. |
|
|
|
|
10. Providing methods for providing inexpensive medical treatment for
poor people. |
|
|
|
|
11. Pursuing deeper psychological and sociobiological research concerning
the nature of violence and aggressive behavior. |
|
|
|
|
12. Breaking the communication barrier with other live species. |