Millennium
Project Home Page
Millennium
Project Nodes
General Overview of the Node
Activities (by year)
Futures Studies in Argentina --short history
Applied Prospective Course- Proposal of Education at Distance
E - learning
Online Spanish Magazine of Prospective: http://www.metadata.org.mx/subnodofuturomexico/
In Buenos Aires there are two Nodes of the Millennium Project.
One Node is located at the Latin American Center for Globalization and Prospective. The center was created as the result of a special interactive seminar on learning for higher education authorities of Colombia in September 1996 about the "Globalization and Futures Research".
Node chair: Miguel
Angel Gutierrez, Director, email: alterfutures@hotmail.com
Latin American Center for Globalization
and Prospective, Buenos Aires, Argentina
The other Node is the EyE Network located at the Scenarios & Strategies
(Escenarios y Estrategia –EYE). This NGO was created as a result of a special
meeting of a team of analysts and researchers who work on several research lines
and training projects in Futures Research (Prospective) for Latin America.
Website: www.esyes.com.ar
E-mails: erbalbi@fibertel.com.ar
nhcarba@fibertel.com.ar
Node chair: Eduardo Raúl Balbi, (email: erbalbi@fibertel.com.ar), President, Scenarios & Strategies (Escenarios y Estrategia –EYE), Buenos Aires, Argentina
2006 Activities
Conference, "LA PROSPECTIVA: HERRAMIENTA FUNDAMENTAL EN EL DESARROLLO
Y ÉXITO DE LAS ORGANIZACIONES EN EL SIGLO XX", November 7, 7 National
University Cuyo, featuring Jerome C. Glenn, Director of the Millennium Project
keynote speaker. Click here to download the PDF of
his presentation "Prospective and Futures Research: Tools and Concepts
for organizational development and success in the XXI Century."
Miguel Angel Gutierrez prezented a short overview of the Futures
Studies in Argentina; please click
here to download the PDF of the presentation (Spanish)
The Millnnium Project signed an agreement of a one year (extendable) cooperation in research with the National University of Cuyo.
2004 Activities (see Report from the Nodes)
Futures Studies in Argentina -
Short presentation by Miguel Angel Gutierrez
please click here to download
the PDF of the presentation (Spanish)
Propuesta de Educación
a Distancia E-learning. Curso de Posgrado de Prospectiva Aplicada
Por Eduardo R. Balbi y Carlos E. Salgado
Consultas e inscripción: www.virtual.unc.edu.ar/Cursos/prospectiva/inicio.htm
Información en Español: Curso
de Prospectiva Aplicada (C-PROSP-APL.doc)
Applied Prospective
Course- Proposal of Education at Distance E - learning
By Eduardo R. Balbi and Carlos E. Salgado
Presentation
During last years 2001 and 2002 were carried out in the context of the National University of Cordoba two workshops about Prospective:
First one was called “Prospective Seminar: Argentina 2010” with auspice of the Secretary's of Science and Technology of the Nation, represented in the workshop by Mr. Rafael Gagliano, Boss of Cabinet of this Secretary, and Master Eduardo Balbi, representing to Latin American Node of Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University (AC/UNU), having the presence of speakers of Private Companies, among them Engineer Carlos Zarate of Motorola, and Dr. Guillermo Holzmann Pérez of the University of Chile and other Personalities.
The second was a “Workshop on Applied Prospective” developed in our University by the Master Eduardo Balbi, organized by the Postgraduate’s Secretary of Univ. National of Cordoba.
Both events were coordinated and organized by Mr. Carlos E. Salgado who at the present time has been designated as Director of Sub node Cordoba of the Latin American Node, Millennium Project (AC/UNU).
At the same time, diverse workshops, conferences and congresses have been carried out by Latin American Node of the Millennium Project (AC/UNU) in other cities of Argentina and in countries of the region, in the last two years.
The interest that prospective woke up, as well as the necessity to advance in a proposal of Postgraduate Education in Prospective topics, not alone for the geographical region of reach of the National University of Cordoba but for all Latin America, it promote the development of a Course in prospective that like it will be done in paragraphs following, it have auspices of important organizations, and al the moment, it constitutes an unique and original real program in its type.
General objectives
During this Course, Conceptual and Methodological elements of Prospective as Scientific Discipline one were provided, that it are detailed in the Program, and it will be promoted in the participants an appropriate proactive and inquisitive attitude for this Study.
This course will be dictated in virtual form, responding to diverse consultations of interested. Claroline Platform will be used in UNCvirtual site of the Postgraduate Secretary. Through this site and platform it will be carried out chats corresponding to Theoretical Classes, classes of Consultation, Tutorships, Forums will be enabled and it will be organized to the participants in virtual Groups, to promote integration and cooperation. The effort will be supplemented with other resources like e-mails, listservs, recommended readings, etc.
Educational Team
Carlos E. Salgado
Graduate in Psychology (UNC) and Master in New Technologies of Information
and Communication (UNED, Spain) and Specialist in Social Psychology, School
of Psychologists -.
Member of Council, Faculty of Law and Social Sciences1998/9; Pro-secretary of Services and Technology Transfer, UNC 1998/2002; Director of the Department of Educational Concourses, School of Information Sciences e (UNC) 1995/7, Undersecretary of Culture, UNC2002/3.
Responsible for the UNCvirtual, under responsibility of the Postgraduate Secretary UNC. http://www.virtual.unc.edu.ar
Associated professor of Social Psychology, Faculty of Law and Social Sciences, School of Information Sciences; regular Professor of Psychology and Communication, in the same House of Studies; former associated professor of Psycho-sociology of Organizations in the Faculty of Economic Sciences and in the External Chamber of Commerce, Institute of External Trade.
Professional performance
Consultant for the High Commissioner of United Nations for Refugees, in the topic Integration of the Refugees of Asian Southeast to the Argentine Republic, Office for the South of Latin America 1982.
Boss, Department Social Integration, for the Ecumenical Movement for the Man's Rights ONG 1981-1989.
Director, Cordoba Sub node, Latin American Node, Millennium Project
Secretary, University of Cordoba Foundation.
Eduardo R.Balbi
Graduate, Staff and Command officer (Argentine Navy), Master in International
Relationships (UB), and Postgraduate in High Strategic Studies, in Methodology
in Prospective Studies and in External Trade. He is also candidate to Doctor
in Geography (field of the Geostrategy) University of the Salvador.
It possesses a long and grateful experience like lecturer and regular member in seminars, symposia and congresses in centers, universities and forums of Argentina and the foreigner, and he acts actively as Professor in postgraduate degrees of universities and Argentinean centers and foreigners.
He is also expert in Prospective Methodology, so much in their theoretical and methodological aspects, like in their concrete applications in government's areas and private sectors.
Their more important memberships are: President of EyE, Scenarios and Strategy, organization that is also Latin American Node of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University. He is also member of the Planning Committee of this project, at world level. Also, it is researcher of Pugwash Conference in Sciences and World Affairs, private organization worldwide grateful that obtained the Nobel Prize of Peace in 1995, together with their President.
It has published numerous articles in newspapers and specialized magazines, and he is joint author of three books.
Their activities take it to be advisory and consultant of companies and organizations, with emphasis in futures analysis; prospective studies and analysis, projections for development and conversion; adaptation to new markets; and other related fields.
External professors
It is a great honor and pride for us to inform you that the educational team will be nurtured with the most important experts in prospective, and in this applied to diverse fields of all America.
Thanks to their disinterested cooperation spirit, and to vision that we all share about the necessity of expanding prospective knowledge in our region, we will have the possibility that the creators of diverse methods, or who are recognized as the highest experts in their application, they will be the educational ones that will give you their knowledge, their abilities and their concrete trajectory in applications.
Next, we indicate some of the educational tem members that we will have. This list will leave completing periodically.
Jerome C. Glenn, Executive Director of the Project Millennium
Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow of the Project Millennium
Francisco José Mojica, Axel Didrikson and Francisco López Segrera, founders of the Latin American Net of Prospective Studies and significant experts in their fields.
Tomás Miklos, possibly the most important referent in prospective
one in our region.
Synthesis of course program
Given quantity of modules and specificity of some of them, students will be able to choose to study all them or to select some.
I. GENERAL AREA
In this area, that it serves as theoretical and fundamental introduction
to the combined field of modern strategic conception supported in prospective,
it will be offered main criteria’s of this thematic, accompanying you from
the beginning with specific techniques that will allow you to go knowing
what to make, next to the how to make it, so that you can understand and
to incorporate in your organization, reasons and/or fundamentals of why
to make it and for what reason to make it.”
.
UNIT 01 PROSPECTIVE AND STRATEGY
· Brief introduction to the prospective one and strategic conception
· Internal Context. Analysis of vision, mission, values
· External Context. External factors and their incidence in
all study. A general approach
· actors' behaviors and attitudes. Perceptions analysis technique
· First approach: construction of trend scenarios. CEAR
Technique
· Evaluation and practical work: perceptions analysis of a reduced group of actors, and construction of a trend micro-scenario
Duration: 25 hours
UNIT 02 ANALYSIS OF THE EXTERNAL CONTEXT
Factors to study are interdependent. Its interaction with the characteristic aspects of the organization to which is belonged, produces an interesting study of strengths, opportunities, weaknesses and threats (SWOT)
· External or context factors study. Their influence in scenario
analysis
· Main external factors to study. Adaptations to each particular
case.
· Basic factors: political, economic, educational, health, security,
work, alliances, etc.
· Analysis of context scenarios. Regional, global, particular.
· SWOT Analysis (strengths, opportunities, weaknesses and threats)
of the external and interns factors analyzed
· Evaluation and practical work: trend integrated scenario of external factors
Duration: 25 hours
UNIT 03 LOOKING FOR AN PROACTIVE ATTITUDE
In this unit, we look for to generate in all participants an open,
inquisitive, creative and constructive attitude.
These are the indispensable bases to advance until one of the most expensive goals -and more difficult of obtaining - of the prospective one: re-locating in a proactive attitude.
For it, we will intrude in some fundamental aspects that allow us to assume the commitment of “to think different”, with what mean it.
· Contribution of creativity. An example: brainstorming.
· Lateral thought, or an use different from the logic. Flowing
logic.
· Systemic perspective. The integrative vision.
· The “existential”: questions why? why NOT?. Advantages of
multiple focus.
· Evaluation and practical work: a creative analysis on a concrete case, to election of the participants
Duration: 25 hours
II. AREA OF PROSPECTIVE METHODOLOGY
In this area we will approach fundamentally the main techniques for the scenarios building and other techniques that it support the prospective research process.
Of course, we won't develop dozens of techniques and available tools, but rather we will base ourselves on those that constitute the spine of the prospective application. We will give you necessary indications so that, if it is interested, you can to future to enlarge their technician-methodological baggage.
Maintaining the theoretical-practical line of our previous didactic units, after the teaching of each technique you will carry out, by way of practical work that serves at the same time as evaluation, an enclosed application that will allow you, when being introduced in the following area, to apply the knowledge with ease, creativity and professionalism.
UNIT 04 THE FUTURES WHEEL METHOD
Anything can understand each other, mainly in terms of their influence
or impact, if the relationships, dependences and influences are not studied
among things, actors, facts and circumstances
· History of the method
· Different focuses
· Steps of the method
· Process of application of the method
· Advantages and disadvantages
· Frontiers of the method
· Uses and experiences
· Evaluation and practical work: application of the Futures Wheel method to a concrete case (reduced)
Duration: 30 hours
UNIT 05 THE SCENARIO METHOD
The recognition of the felt like scenario and of the possible and probable
scenarios, and the actions that we should decide to build our future, it
constitute a process that is worthwhile to know and to take to the practice.
· History of the method
· Different focuses
· Steps of the method
· Process of application of the method
· Advantages and disadvantages
· Frontiers of the method
· Uses and experiences
· Evaluation and practical work: application of the Scenario Method to a concrete case (reduced)
Duration: 30 hours
UNIT 06 THE BETS-SCENARIO METHOD
Which is our objective? Inside what possibilities, ranges or spaces
are? How can we achieve it? We propose a “bets” rational, measure, analyzed
and possible.
· History of the method
· Different focuses
· Steps of the method
· Process of application of the method
· Advantages and disadvantages
· Frontiers of the method
· Uses and experiences
· Evaluation and practical work: application of the Bets Scenario Method to a concrete case (reduced)
Duration: 30 hours
UNIT 07 TECHNIQUE OF THE SCENARIO NUCLEUS ANALYSIS
Is it same to act thinking on space terms, or on concrete matters,
or with fears, perceptions of risk or threats, and hostile sensations?
Modifiers of behaviors and attitudes.
· History of the technique
· Different focuses
· Steps of the technique
· Process of application of the technique
· Advantages and disadvantages
· Opposite of the technique
· Uses and experiences
· Evaluation and practical work: application of the Technique to a concrete case
Duration: 15 hours
UNIT 08 OTHER SUPPORT TECHNIQUES (first part)
How to organize my work and my time? How to be efficient, rational and creative at the same time?
· Analytic necessities in each step of the scenario techniques
· The most appropriate methodological tools in the first steps
· Techniques of participation and creativity
· Structural analysis. MICMAC and MACTOR Techniques
· Relevancy Tree
· Delphi Method
· Evaluation and practical work: short monograph (paper) (research) with advantages, disadvantages, uses and limitations of the explained techniques
Duration: 30 hours
UNIT 09 OTHER SUPPORT TECHNIQUES (second part)
How to be able to recognize impacts, consequences, risks, opportunities?
How to evaluate the potential facts of the future, without falling in prejudices?
· The most appropriate methodological tools in the last steps
· Trend Impact Analysis Technique
· Cross Impact Method
· Decisional Matrix
· Use of SWOT analysis
· Evaluation and practical work: short monograph (paper) (research) with advantages, disadvantages, uses and limitations of the explained techniques
Duration: 30 hours
UNIT 10 APPROPRIATION VIRTUAL WORKSHOP
Elaboration, step to step, of a prospective analysis, guided by professors
Participants will work in virtual groups, taking place among them the team work and the necessary consent search.
Evaluation and practical work: final prospective report
Duration: 40 hours
BASIC BIBLIOGRAPHY (all in Spanish)
Balbi, Eduardo Raúl, Editor, “Futures Research Methodology -Prospective Methodology”, Electronic Format (CD), Buenos Aires, 2002, ISBN 987-20343-0-3. This CD contains around 1.900 pages of diverse methods, techniques, concepts and examples of Prospective application, for what becomes the basic bibliography of this discipline. Also, in each one of their different chapters a nurtured specific bibliography is mentioned for each topic.
Balbi, Eduardo Raúl and Crespo, María Fabiana, “Capturing the Future”, Edit. Format, Buenos Aires, 1997
Hawthorn, Geoffrey, “commendable Worlds, alternative worlds”, Cambridge University Press, Primera edition in Spanish 1995, Melbourne, Australia.
Van Der Heijden, Kees, “Scenarios, the art of preventing the future”, Edit. Panorama, Mexico, 1998
Godet, Michel, “Of the anticipation to the action, manual of prospective and strategy”, Edit. Alfaomega, Bogotá, Colombia, 1996
Miklos and Tello, “prospective planning, a strategy for the design of the future”, Center of Studies Prospective Foundation Javier Acne Sierra and Limusa Noriega Editors, Mexico, 1998
Gabiña, Juanjo, “The re-examined future, the prospective reflection as strategy and decision weapon”, Boixareu and Marcombo Editors, Barcelona 1995
Heilbroner, Robert, “Visions of the Future, distant past, past, today and tomorrow”, Editorial Paidos, Barcelona, 1996
Bas, Enric, “Prospective, tools for strategic administration of the change”, Editorial Ariel, Barcelona, 1999
Harvard Business Review, (several authors) “Administration in times of uncertainty”, Edit. Deusto, Bilbao, 1997
Mojica, Francisco José (comp.), Analysis of the XXI Century; Concept of Prospective; Scenarios and Trends that allow to make an exam of next century”, Edit. Alfaomega, Bogotá, 1998
Garret, Martha J., “Futures of Health, manual for professionals of health”, Pan-American Organization of the Health and Mc Graw Hill Edit., Mexico, 2001
University of Guadalajara (Mexico), “Jalisco to Future, building the future 1999-2025”, Editorial of the University of Guadalajara, Mexico, 1999
This basic bibliography will be supplemented for each unit with other specific ones and with references, links and available amplifications in Internet.
Institutions that auspices the course
· Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations
University
· Latin American net of Prospective Studies
· ONG “Scenarios and Strategy-EyE -” it is in Buenos Aires,
responsible for the Latin American Node of the Millennium Project.