The following scenario bibliography is categorized by the domains of the Millennium Project, plus an additional category titled, "Regions and Nations."

I. International Economics and Wealth

II. Environmental Change and Biodiversity

III. Technological Capacity

IV. Demographics and Human Resources

V. Governance and Conflict

VI. Regions and Nations

VII. Integration of these five or Whole Future

This bibliography is intended to give the reader a sense of the breadth and scope of scenarios that a literature search, Internet search, and personal interviews revealed. This bibliography is not, by all means, comprehensive; it is meant to give the reader a "taste" of plausible stories of the future through short summaries of what the scenarios are about, prefaced by reference information so the reader can locate the original material.

As mentioned in Section 6 of our book State of the Future: Implications for Action Today, the Millennium Project is collaborating with a research panel of macro-historians worldwide to identify the "lessons of history." This actually will be useful to applied futures research, as the "lessons of history," once rated and put through the rigor of several rounds with the panel, can provide a supplement, or "checklist" for structuring scenarios. We ask the reader when contemplating the various futures listed in this bibliography, to think about the lessons of history and, perhaps, share a lesson or two that comes to mind. We'd like to hear from you. We would also like to add macro-historians to our panel, and if you, the reader, know of a macro-historian who can enrich our study, please let us know.

The Millennium Project is also collecting normative scenarios this year. Normative scenarios are desirable futures written from the perspective of the author. Since most of the scenarios listed in this bibliography are sets of exploratory scenarios that fall within Millennium Project domains, we hope to add a substantial amount of normative scenarios as a supplement to this collection. Our purpose is to gather enough normative scenario material from the various works and literature to address some of the methodological questions outlined by Ted Gordon in Section 3, The Scenarios. Normative scenarios can tie into professional futures research, most notably through the linkages of scenarios-to-strategy. How this fits exactly, is our goal to more thoroughly understand. If the reader comes across normative scenarios , or had personally written a normative scenario or two, we are most interested in being informed so we can build our collection.

For any information you may want to share on the lessons

of history, macro-historians, or normative scenarios, please contact:

Susan Jette, jette@well.com or (202) 686-5179

American Council for the United Nations University

I. International Economics and Wealth

The New Capitalism. William E. Halal. John Wiley & Son. July 1986/486p. Three scenarios of U.S. capitalism to 2000.

The world is recognizing and affirming the ideals of democracy and free enterprise because they offer the best means for adapting. The best combination is a balance of the two, exemplified in Democratic Free Enterprise described by the author. Key elements of the new capitalism include: smart growth - combining profitable business with public service; market networks - fluid organizational environments; participative leadership - profit and worker ownership; multiple goals - profit no longer the central principle; and strategic management - issues management at the heart of strategic change. Professor Halal concludes with three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Corporate America: the Reagen influence to get America back into Laissez faire economics was maintained through the 1990s. By 2000, big companies and multinationals literally reigned. "Fierce competition prevailed for awhile to create a flurry of efficient innovations, but, as the economic transition matured, mergers and acquisitions consolidated most industries into a few large corporations." Big corporations manage schools and universities because education has become increasingly critical for running a complex technological society. Scenario 2.) Regulated America: most aspects of life is regulated by government as America returns to an "America that Cares." This welfare state is a more secure and fairly well-administered society, but the promised gains remained illusive. Reforms were made, but only by replacing business mega-corporations with federal bureaucracies. Scenario 3.) Democratic Free Enterprise America: a major populist movement targets big business, which becomes a major political issue. The role of business is then redefined by a coalition of centrist politicians and business executives. The movement leads to various changes that redefine much of the economic system, such as agreements to automate smokestack industries while providing worker- training on new technologies.

A Visit to Belindia. Frederick Pohl. Chapter from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House, St. Paul, Minnesota. A Global economy scenario to the year 2044.

One of a collection of scenarios from various authors looking to the year 2044. Key trends in A Visit to Belindia include the widening of the have-have not gap, slow growth in the advanced industrial nations and irresponsible government spending. This pessimistic scenario depicts the widening of the have have-not gap worldwide, and the term 'Belindia' popularly describes this condition: a small number of well-to-do classes having the same standard of living as in Belgium while the rest of the world lived at a standard similar to India's in the mid-nineties of the 20th century. Belgium plus India = Belindia ."Belindia is really the whole world now." The potential of technologies to contribute to economic growth and a higher standard of living stagnated dramatically due to inappropriate government spending on pork barrel projects when there should have been spending on research and development. With such a widening of the have have-not gap at the beginning of the 21st Century, narcotics became the fastest growing industry in the world. With virtually no exploitation of potential technologies to solve environmental problems, by 2044 the ozone layer was almost gone, and throughout the world, a few million lived under protective domes while billions lived unprotected, and, "They didn't live very well at all."

The Capitalist World-Economy: Middle Run Prospects. Immanual Wallerstein, Alternatives: Social Transformation and Humane Governance 14:3, July 1989, 279-288. Three scenarios of the world economy to 2050.

Wallerstein traces the capitalist-world economy and, from the perspective of 1989, the world was in the middle of a period of global economic stagflation that could have meant the decline of US power while Japan and Western Europe were improving their positions. Four possible vectors of historical occurrences for the 2000-2050 middle-run period are described, then, "if all four vectors are correctly estimated, three scenarios are possible": Scenario 1.) A story of the struggle for hegemony, pitting Japan/US/China against Western Europe/USSR (or parts of the former USSR), resulting in a world war by 2050. Scenario 2.) Faced with the exhaustion of the present world-system and the fear of nuclear disaster, this is a story about a world system that consciously reorganizes itself into something else. The world recreates a new structure of inegalitarian privilege. Scenario 3.) A story of the anarchic crumbling away of the world system, generating massive experimentation and massive insecurity, until chaos creates a truly new world order that is relatively egalitarian and democratic.

Business NOT as Usual: Rethinking our Individual, Corporate, and Industrial Strategies for Global Competition. Ian I. Mitroff, San Francisco: Josey-Bass Publishers, April 1987/194p. Four scenarios of U.S. development into the 21st century.

The author discusses business strategy in a changing world. The book concludes with four scenarios of the future of U.S. corporate and indutrial development. Scenario 1.) Continually increasing prosperity without substantial change or dislocation. This most optimistic scenario assumes that past methods of operation are sound and will lead to increasing prosperity in the foreseeable future. There is no need to change the thinking about complex problems or restructure organizations and industries. Scenario 2.) Continued prosperity with substantial early adjustment. This is also an optimistic scenario but in a very different way. It's basic premise is a highly adaptive America, where clear signals of the decline of industry are perceived early enough, so that shifts into new patterns are made (for example, less bureaucratic, smaller, more autonomous companies that can compete more effectively). Scenario 3.) Late and slow recovery after substantial pain. This scenario is optimistic but also in a different way. It predicts that substantial pain will occur before the United States finally makes the changes necessary to compete in a world economy. That is, many more industries will reach "near death" before the wall of resistance that has been built on past successes is broken down, and they realize that radical restructure is critical to survival, let alone prosperity. Scenario 4.) Catastrophic decline after severe pain. Most pessimistic. Maintains that by the time the pain has become so great that change is clearly needed, it will be too late. Foreign products and competitors will have made such a dent in US domestic markets, not to mention world markets, that the chance of disengaging their stronghold will be extremely difficult.

U.S. Financial Services in the Global Economy: International Competitiveness and Safety and Soundness, James D. Robinson III, Vital Speeches of the Day, 56:6, 1 Jan 1990, 176-180. Three scenarios of financial services to 2000.

In a speech given by James D. Robinson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of American Express Company on the future of the U.S. financial industry, it was concluded that there were three plausible scenarios. Key trends driving the scenarios are: wealth becoming more widely distributed around the world resulting in a truly global economy; the increasing globalization of financial markets; and increasingly, financial markets becoming a guide to economic policy. Scenario 1.) Creeping Incrementalism: a continuation of the piecemeal, loophole-driven erosion of regulations and the legislative stalemate that had characterized U.S. financial system reform. This is an "extension of the status quo" scenario. Scenario 2.) Back to the Bunkers: a world of protectionism on all levels . For example, the re-regulation in the U.S. into distinct financial services industries, and internationally, the creation of trade blocs, which is a very fragile kind of security, vulnerable to market forces finding new ways around artificial barriers. Scenario 3.) A Positive Future: "open markets that land consumer choice, in which all types of financial institutions can compete with adequate rules of consumer protection, fair play, safety and soundness."

In the Shadow of the Rising Sun: The Political Roots of American Economic Decline. William S. Dietrich, University Park PA: Penn State Press Oct. 1991/343p. A global economy scenario to 2015.

From the perspective of 1991, the author considers the various angles of a key trend: Japan's growing technological and economic mastery. From a U.S. point of view, Dietrich writes a hair-raising scenario called "Pax Nippocina", characterized by American decline and Japanese world leadership. Japan dominates every leading-edge industry, and becomes the world's financial center. Its GNP is twice that of the US, and GNP per capita is four times higher. The Japanese own 40% of US manufacturing assets, as the US (and the EC) is relegated to a third-tier nation, relying on East Asian high-tech products. Although Japan has experienced problems in their economy, it has the potential to rise again. When looking beyond the 1990s and to the year 2015 or 2025, "Pax Nippocina" is considered a plausible future.

1990 Ten Year Forecast. Institute for the Future, Corporate Associates Program, Menlo Park CA: IFTF Feb 1990/237p. Three scenarios of the business environment to 2000, 2030, 2050.

" A comprehensive view of change in the business environment, divided into three sections: a core forecast of key driving forces in the 1990s, a center section glimpsing the first 50 years of the 21st Century in three scenarios (2010, 2030, 2050), and a discussion of four major issue clusters (consumers/customers, employees/managers, investors, and government)." Future Survey Annual 1990 This "Ten Year Forecast" suggests that the rising tide of social insecurity among middle-aging baby boomers leads to concern about their economic situation, health benefits, and debt burden. For 2010, the Institute for the Future forecasted the enormous growth of middle-class consumers in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe: "By 2010 these areas will have a third of the world's middle-class consumers, up from 18 percent today." According to the staff at IFTF, the "Ten Year Forecast" is proprietary, but there are many excellent forecasts, papers, and reports that can be ordered through the Institute's homepage at: www.iftf.org.

Wild Cards: Preparing for "The Big One," John D. Rockfellow, The Futurist, 28:1, Jan-Feb 1994, 14-19. Three Wild Card scenarios to the year 2000.

Often times a set of scenarios will include a wildcard scenario of an event having a low probability of occurrence, but a very high impact if it does occur. In this article, the author describes three wildcard events from a collaborative report titled, Wild Cards: A Multinational Perspective. Scenario 1.) Hong Kong Rules China: "In 1997, Great Britain has relinquished control of Hong Kong, but the joke is on China. Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the five special economic zones of mainland China have become the supernovas of the late twentieth century. They have gobbled up the Chinese communist dinosaur and blasted away the possibility of another Tiananmen Square massacre." By 2000, Hong Kong serves as the main conduit for Chinese exports. Mainland China's average annual growth rate has stayed constant due to a lack of infrastructure, while Hong Kong's exports have increased substantially. Scenario 2.) Europe Goes Regional: by the year 2000, Europe will dismantle the nation-state in favor of strong regional representation in the European Community. The community is still seen as necessary to protect economic and security interests, but the nation-state as an intermediate step in the hierarchy of decision making has been bypassed. Scenario 3.) The No Carbon Economy: scientists establish that the world's climate is getting warmer due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The world experiences more droughts, cyclones, heat waves, etc. Public awareness of the situation grows, bringing with it a greater understanding of the limitations of development based upon abundant and cheap energy.

The Age of Diminished Expectations: U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s. Paul Krugman, Cambridge MA: MIT Press, Sept 1990/204p. Three scenarios of the US economy to 2000.

Key trends in the US economy are described: productivity growth, income distribution, unemployment, the trade deficit, inflation, the budget deficit, trade with Japan, finance, debt in the developing countries. From the perspective of 1990, the author concludes with three scenarios of the U.S. economy. Scenario 1.) Happy Ending: US growth of productivity at 3% a year leads to a general rise in living standards and defuses the problems of trade and budget deficits. Scenario 2) Hard Landing: foreign investors loose confidence in the US, and the immediate impact is the fall in the dollar, or the reverse. "If you want to envision a real hard landing, simply imagine that foreigners face a perceived risk that is not alleviated by a lower dollar, such as fears of expropriation. Suppose that the resulting dollar crash follows a period of dollar stability, so there is no cushion to brake the rise in import prices, and we have the bad luck to stumble onto a third oil crisis just as the dollar plunges. Suppose that the US economy is already having an inflation problem when the crisis hits. What you get is a recipe for a truly disastrous hard landing." This hard landing scenario can be avoided with good policy. Scenario 3.) Drift: no radical developments or changes. In the 1990s there will be a growing and ever more miserable underclass, while the middle class probably does better. By 2000 unemployment probably will drift down to 4-5%, inflation will creep up to 7%, net foreign claims in the US will be about 20% of GNP, foreign firms will account for 25% of US manufacturing and 45% of banking, an increasingly unified Europe will have a larger GNP than the US; Japan's GNP will be 80% or more of the US level, and a world economy that is likely to be less unified due to trading blocs will slow the growth of world trade. This scenario is far short of what used to be regarded as success, but it "now looks perfectly acceptable, and might be regarded as a success."

Long-Term Scenarios of the World Economy to 2015. By Andre de Jong and Gerrit Zalm (Central Planning Bureau, The Netherlands). Conference on Long-Term Prospects for the World Economy. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Paris OECD, Aug 1992/193p. Four scenarios on the global economy to 2015.

According to the Central Planning Bureau, The Netherlands, many policy makers in government and business base decisions on their perceptions of the future. Three perceptions of the future - equilibrium, coordination, and free market - were discussed at this conference, and were related to various regional developments in economics, natural resources and the environment, along with the interactions among the driving forces to create four alternative scenarios supporting a long-term study of the Dutch economy, with a focus on the world economy. Scenario 1.) Balanced Growth: emphasis on economic equilibrium and innovation. This is the most optimistic scenario. An annual growth rate of the world economy is more than 3.5%, which is ecologically sustainable and includes all the major regions of the world. Scenario 2.) Global Crisis: tensions between trading blocs (Japan-led bloc is strongest) create a vicious circle of slowing economic growth. This is a "lack of balance" scenario featuring global tension and conflict, slow growth and depression. It examines the damages of ignorance and the challenges of a delayed response to regional and global problems. Drought leads to a worldwide crisis in food supply and global economic recession. How the world may end up in widespread distress with only a possible high cost solution, is examined. Scenario 3. ) Global Shift: technology is the driving force behind a free market economy. A shift in economic activities takes place from the Atlantic to Pacific basin. Scenario 4.) European Renaissance: trade blocs slow growth of free market economy. Europe proves to be the best at integrating and expanding its bloc and flourishes. The two most powerful economic blocs in the world are: Western Europe and North America. Although they are quite different, both blocks are vulnerable, and their economic performance will have a huge influence on other regions, especially their neighbors.

Long-Term Prospects for the World Economy. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Paris : OECD, Aug 1992/193p. Nine scenarios of the world economy to the year 2000 and beyond.

A "Forum for the Future" conference hosted by the OECD in Paris, June 1991. This conference brought together key economists and thinkers from around the world, examining the forces that are likely to drive the evolution of the global economy and its major regions to the year 2000 and beyond. In addition to the summary by Michel Andrieu, Wolfgang Michalski, and Barrie Stevens, the conference provided seven additional papers that included scenarios. Long-Term Prospects for the US Economy, by Maurice Ernst and Jimmy W. Wheeler (Hudson Institute) provided three scenarios of the US economy to the year 2000. US trends identified included: defense and discretionary spending; entitlements such as social security and Medicare; special benefits and subsidies, and general revenues. Scenario 1.) Central Surprise Free Scenario: GNP Growth ranges between 2.3-2.7% through the 1990's and to the year 2000. No surprises here; it is a "business as usual" scenario. Scenario 2.) Virtuous Circle Scenario: overall luck was very good; the combination of good management, especially in the industrial sector, and policy yields 3.2% growth. 3.) Slow Growth Scenario: only 1.8% growth. Confidence becomes lost in the "American Dream" and the US begins to loose ground in terms of competing in the global economy. North American Economic Integration, by Wendy Dobson (U of Toronto) provided three scenarios: 1.) Base Case; 2.) Freer Trade (resulting from NAFTA - accelerating economic growth in all three countries); and 3.) Further Evolution ( common market or economic union in the longer term). European Economic Integration, by Emilio Fontela (U of Madrid) provided three scenarios: 1.) The Conventional Wisdom Scenario; 2.) The Scenario of Deepening; and 3.) Scenario of Widening.
 
 The Great Boom Ahead: Your Comprehensive Guide to Personal and Business Profit in the New Era of Prosperity. Harry S. Dent Jr. Hyperion Publishers Jan. 1993/273p. A global economy scenario to 2025.

A Global Boom Scenario. A new world economic order of three trading blocs (North America, Europe, and the Far East), is led by a booming U.S. economy. America's baby boomers reach peak productive years as the U.S. gains economic dominance and leads the move to customization economies. U.S. information infrastructure and workforce become the best in the world. Mexico rides U.S. coattails to become the Third World country with the strongest growth. Warns that the world needs to prepare for the "Mother of all Depressions" from 2010 - 2025, which could bring the curtain down.

21st Century Capitalism. Robert Heilbroner . W. W. Norton & Co, N.Y. Sept 1993/175p. Five scenarios of capitalism to the 21st century.

In contrast to stagnant command and control societies, capitalism presents the impetus, challenges, and generates tremendous change in a society. It "thus carries us along into futures that are full of unpredictability, and yet formed and shaped in ways that are far from being utterly unforeseeable." The author presents the economic theories of Smith, Marx, Keynes, Schumpeter, and Heilbroner as scenarios for the future of capitalism into the 21st century. Scenario 1.) Adam Smith: a world of economic growth, resource restraints, economic decline from growing population and shrinking resources. Scenario 2.) Karl Marx: a world of growth with continual periods of economic crisis and restructuring, with labor ultimately gaining control of the economy. Scenario 3.) John M. Keynes: a world of market driven societies creating lasting underemployment and the need for social investment. Scenario 4.) Joseph Schumpeter: capitalism will continue to grow through creative destruction, but will ultimately decline from moral decay. Scenario 5.) Robert Heilbroner: capitalism can grow with the right social investment. Barriers to social investment include the deficit, American tax phobia, and coping with inflationary pressures.

The Post-Nationalist Map: A Cartography of Cultures and Economies (Special Issue). New Perspectives Quarterly 12: 1, Winter 1994-95/64p. Single copy from the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions. Two future maps to the 21st century.

This special issue is devoted to showing that the world in the 19th century was once divided by geo-political relations and has evolved in the 20th century into a new cartography of cultures and economies, and is destined to evolve further into the 21st century. Views included in this issue were: Nathan Gardels (editor, NPQ), Francis Fukuyama (RAND Corp. - Washington), Chai-Anan Samudavanija (Bangkok), Kenichi Ohmae, Jacque Delors, Robert Reich, Riccardo Petrella, Paul Kennedy, Paul Krugman, James Goldsmith, Richard Rosecrance, Hans Magnus Enzensberger, and Riccardo Petrella (EU/FAST).

Riccardo Petrella sketches two future maps of the world system, so vivid that they describe two scenarios. The first map is a world dominated by a hierarchy of 30 city-regions (the CR-30 replacing the G-7), linked more to each other through telecommunications than by geography; the second map is a global civil society that balances the business world with a global social contract that gives equity to all through a redistribution of wealth.

The Twenty-First Century Organization: Analyzing Current Trends-Imagining the Future. Guy Benveniste, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers, Feb 1994/310p. Two scenarios of the organization to the 21st century.

The author outlines six trends driving two scenarios of the future of the organization. These trends include: worldwide competition for ideas, highly educated work force, feminization of organizational culture, sophisticated communications, rapid change, and a shift from hierarchy to more egalitarian organizations. Scenario 1.) New System: in this world, most, if not all people are highly educated and are members of professional organizations that represent their occupation. Individuals are members of Professional Councils, Professional Courts, and Professional Boards. 2.) The Firm: in this world, American organizations engage in global business. These organizations are operated on the senior staff professional model, with two hierarchies of workers: senior professional workers with considerable discretion and other professional workers in fairly controlled situations. Credit goes to those who work diligently. Rewards are based on outcome measures. These large enterprises run schools, hospitals, hotels, and restaurants.

The Haves Have Less, by Gaia Young, and channeled to Nichola Lemann. The New York Times Magazine Sept 29, 1996. A labor scenario to 2096.

This scenario plausibly describes the evolution of work into the 21st century. Key trends include the striving for education, high unemployment, and the widening of the have have-not gap. The world of work becomes a "meritocracy", in which people rise to power and position because of their education-based ability (rather than birth as in an aristocracy). Meritocracy is especially seen in the US. However, populist reaction against the meritocratic elite causes such professions as law and medicine to decline in status, while a quarter of the work force is made up of domestic servants.
 

II. ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY

The Climatic Effects of Nuclear War, Richard P. Turco, Owen B. Toon, Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan, Scientific American 251:2, August 1984, 33-43. Global scenario of a nuclear winter.

The long-term climatic effects of nuclear war are much more severe than had been supposed. The scenario of a nuclear winter is a world in which vast regions are subjected to prolonged darkness, abnormally low temperatures, violent windstorms, toxic smog, and persistent radioactive fallout. Under such circumstances, the extinction of many species, including humans, is possible.

Our Common Future. Faye Dunchin and Glenn-Marie Lange. Oxford University Press, 1994.

The Our Common Future scenarios and alternative scenarios were designed in relation to the Brundtland Report in 1987. These scenarios examine likely future changes in emissions of carbon dioxides and oxides of sulfer and oxides of nitrogen, thus focusing on the most energy-intensive sectors. In the latter part of the book, case studies were used to develop the scenarios. They rely mostly on technological changes in lowering pollution or climate change. Along with a global scenario, the book contains regional scenarios. In all scenarios, it is assumed that the levels of economic activity (as measured in GNP) will increase by 2.8% a year worldwide, that the relative price of petroleum will gradually rise above its level of the 1980s to $44 per barrel and by 2020, the population will increase from 5.l3 million in 1990 to 8.1 million in 2020, with 42.7% in 1990 to 57.5% in 2020 of urban population worldwide. Case studies cover the likely future changes in the use of energy in households, transportation, electricity generation, and industrial production, along with pollution control options.

Neptune's Revenge: The Ocean of Tomorrow. Anne W. Simon (NYC). NY: Franklin Watts, Oct. 1984/222p. Environmental scenario in the 21st century.

The author describes mankind's various uses of the ocean and how these uses have turned into abuse. A continuation of these trends would drastically affect the ocean of tomorrow. Some abuses cited by the author include overfishing and the dumping of sewage, radioactive waste, and toxic chemicals. A pessimistic scenario "Neptunes Revenge," describes a world in which the oceans have suffered irreversible damage in the 21st century, and are no longer able to support mankind. This is a scenario of survival of life on earth.
 

Global Climate Change: Linking Energy, Environment, Economy, and Equity. Edited by James C. White, NY: Plenum Press, 1992/242p. Energy scenarios to the 21st century.

Proceedings of the 8th annual conference of the Center for Environmental Information (Rochester NY), held December 1991 in Washington. This conference examined trends affecting climate change such as increasing greenhouse gases; warming generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes; and how differences in seasons can create trouble for urban water supplies. Conference papers include scenarios of multiple benefit environmental policies, local and regional policies, the role of markets in energy/environmental policy, and sectoral perspectives (government, electric utilities, auto industry, industry); other conference papers included scenarios of future energy consumption.

Principles for Electric Power Policy. Technology Futures, Inc. and Scientific Foresight Inc., Greenwood Press/Quorum Books, Oct 1984/448p. Six scenarios of electric power to the year 2014.

A National Science Foundation sponsored technology assessment on the future of electric power conducted within the context of six alternative sets of scenarios of the 30 year future of the U.S. Trends and assumptions driving the scenarios are: growing importance of electrical power; projections for long-term size and distribution of electrical power demand is increasingly uncertain; the type of practical power generation sources will increase dramatically; roles, structures, and procedures for electrical utilities will change significantly; electric power policy will find it increasingly difficult to find a balance between efficiency, equity, and risk. Scenario 1.) The Average Future: total energy demands and electrical power demands in particular will continue to grow. There will be a limited but increased role for nuclear power and a dominant role for coal-based generation. Scenario 2.) Nuclear Resurgence: high energy demand and increased acceptance of nuclear power, coupled with disenchantment with coal-based generation results in a resurgence of nuclear power generation. Scenario 3.) Mega-Plant: high demand, coupled with resistance to both nuclear and coal-based generation results in unconventional, high-capacity sources of electricity, such as solar power satellites. Scenario 4.) Small Coal Plants: high energy demand and moderate increase in oil prices slows the trend towards electrification. As a result, relatively small coal-based generators are preferred. Scenario 5.) Post-Industrial Economy: an economy dominated by services and high-technology manufacturing results in low demand for energy generally but a high demand for electricity. This demand is met by distributed electric power technologies such as solar cells. Scenario 6.) Economic Malaise: economic malaise results in low demand for both electricity and energy in general. Conventional coal-based generators supply the electric power that is needed.
 

Vision 2020: Reordering Chaos for Global Survival. Ervin Laszlo, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, March 1994/133p. World environmental scenario to 21st century.

This book provides an analysis of environmental trends. Laszlo projects that human population will soon be at the edge of the planet's carrying capacity, masses of people will be poverty stricken, and food production will decline. A normative scenario, "Vision 2020" shows a world in which the environment is supportive of humanity. The author recommends that five objectives be accomplished: restraining the power of the nation-state; restraining the power of politicians by promoting direct democracy; concords of cooperation in defense environmental protection; and development. The "Vision 2020" scenario is a strategy to launch humanity on the path toward a global "holarchy" where human beings co-evolve with their societies. This calls for maintaining mastery over the complex and interdependent world we have created.

A 21st Century World Gas Scenario, Ove Sviden Futures, 18:5, Oct. 1986, 687-691. Three gas scenarios to 2010, 2040, and 2070.

This article represents a long range outlook on natural gas as a primary energy source and gas as an energy product. Scenario 1.) Scenario Scene 2010: "world population is 7 billion. Natural gas now represents 25% of world TPE. The gas supply pipelines span the continents and cross deep waters. Offshore exploration of natural gas takes place around most continents. The world is again experiencing flourishing growth. Demand for energy is growing by 2% per year. The search for petroleum resulted in a bigger growth for the natural gas reserves than for the oil reserves, but oil is still the dominant energy form with its 31% of world TPE." Scenario 2.) Scenario Scene 2040: " World population has increased to 9 billion. World energy demand has more than doubled since 1985. Natural gas is now the major fossil fuel used. The volume consumed is four times larger than in 1985. Its share of world TPE is 34%. Worldwide gas supply and distribution networks span the continents. Natural gas is recovered from subsea installations . Gas is considered to be the only environmentally acceptable form of carbon to be burned." Scenario 3.) Scenario Scene 2100: " World population has stabilized now at 12 billion. World energy demand is six times the amount consumed in 1985. This represented an average energy growth rate of 1.57% /year during the last 15 years. Over 40% of the energy is reserved for transportation usage. This means that 2.5 times the world total energy consumption in 1985 is now used in mobile power packs. The environmental specification for combustion is very strict indeed. The only sufficiently clean fuel is gas, i.e. hydrogen."

A Matter of Degrees: The Potential for Controlling the Greenhouse Effect. Irving M. Mintzer, Report #5. Washington: World Resources Institute, April 1987/60p. Four scenarios of greenhouse warming to 2030.

Various models are integrated into the Model of Warming Commitment, a major model that was used to project future emissions of the six gases that contribute most to global warming. From the perspective of 1987, four scenarios are utilized to reflect different levels of effort toward the slowing of greenhouse warming. Scenario 1.) Base Case: there is no change in industry practices, it is a business as usual world, with no policies to slow down Co2 emissions and minimal environmental costs are included in the price of energy. Scenario 2.) High Emissions: growing population in the industrialized nations and developing nations accelerate the use of technology and thus the demand for energy, but no policies are set in place to improve Co2 emissions or improve end-use efficiency. Scenario 3.) Modest Policies: in this scenario, there is a lot of successful research and development in the area of solar energy, which gives people a strong realization about the importance of the environment; substantial environmental costs are imposed on energy prices to encourage fuel switching. Scenario 4.) Slow Build-Up: strong emphasis on energy efficiency, major global commitment to reforestation, high environmental costs imposed on energy prices. Even in the bast case scenario of a slow build-up of greenhouse gases, there is still a likelihood of an increase in 2 or 3 degrees C by 2030, resulting in major climate change. In the other scenarios, temperature change could be two to three times as great.

Superquake! Why Earthquakes Occur and When the Big One Will Hit Southern California. David Ritchie (Baltimore MD). NY: Crown, Feb. 1988/185p. An "Earthquake Day" scenario to 21st century.

At 7:30 on a summer morning in the not-too-distant future the Los Angeles area is hit by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake lasting 75 seconds. This is the "Big One," but it occurs not along the San Andreas Fault, but along the relatively minor Newport-Inglewood Fault. The results, however, are anything but minor. Tens of thousands are killed, a million injured. The transportation links that tie the Los Angeles area to the rest of the United States are virtually severed. Fires rage and toxic chemicals spill. Ultimately the costs are in the trillions of dollars, driving the U.S. economy into a tailspin. In addition to this scenario, the history of earthquakes in California and discussions of other quake-prone areas of the United States are discussed in this book. Worthwhile to compare the details of this scenario with the 1994 Los Angeles quake.

Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century? Stephen H. Schneider, San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, Oct. 1989/317p. A global warming scenario to the 21st century.

A warmer climate resulting from the greenhouse effect causes significant impacts on North America. Drier, hotter summers result in a loss of agricultural production in the Midwest, the death of forests in northern states like Minnesota, and water shortages in states like New York and California. Violent hurricanes spawned in the warm waters of the Atlantic and Caribbean devastate large areas of the coast from the Gulf of Mexico to New England. Smoke from massive forest fires darken the skies across vast areas of North America. Coastal areas and areas around the Great Lakes are faced with decisions to either abandon shoreline infrastructure or invest hundreds of billions, perhaps trillions of dollars to rebuild them so as to accommodate fluctuating sea and lake levels.

Using Scenarios to Explore Future Energy Demand in Industrialized Countries, Lee Schipper and Stephen Meyers Energy Policy, March, 1993. Three scenarios of energy to the year 2010.

This article presents scenarios that represent the direction in which current and expected trends seem to be moving; what might happen if energy efficiency were given a high priority by governments and the private sector; and what might be achieved if restraining energy use became a very high priority for public policy. The scenarios delineate an important boundary between a relatively easily attainable improvemnt in efficiency and a more problematical level of change. Scenario 1.) Trends: "this scenario reflects a world in which energy prices rise slowly, and only modest attention is given to energy efficiency. In keeping with the current expert consensus world oil prices increases by around 50% between 1990 and 2010, with more of that increase coming in the first decade of the next century than in the 1990s. Scenario 2.) "this scenario envisions a future in which full adooption of marginal cost energy pricing and internalization of many environmental and other externalities boosts real energy prics to uses by 25-50% relative to the trends scenario." Scenario 3.)Vigorous Effort: this scenario depicts the most that could plausibly be achieved within a 20 year time horizon. The limit is not so much technology itself, but rather the rate at which more efficient technologies and practices could penetrate widely into the capital stock. Energy prices rise to 50-100% higher than in the trends scenario, reflecting incorporation of strong carbon taxes as well as more aggressive internalizaton of externalities associated with local environmental problems related to energy production and use."

Scenarios for Energy: Sustainable World vs. Global Mercantilism, Adam Kahane Long Range Planning August 1992 Vol. 25. Two global energy scenarios to 2010.

This paper outlines two scenarios prepared in the Group Planning coordination of Shell International Petroleum Company. The World of 1990: "The only solid basis we have for discussing the future is information about the past and the present. In 1990, the present is a time ofpromise but also of considerable risk. In these scenarios, we concentrate on three areas of potentially far-reaching change: geopolitics, international economics, and the natural environment. Scenario 1.) Global Mercantilism: "In this scenario, the new post-Cold War international order proves to be too weak to withstand serious political and economic shocks and set-backs. Regional conflicts, such as in the Middle East, are destabilizing and difficult for the new order to deal with. The current GATT negotiations fail or, at best, produce a feeble and meaningless agreement. Financial instability is accentuated by deregulation and rising interest rates. Faced with a downturn, politicians focus on national economic difficulties, and there is little international leadership. Continued frustration over trade and investment imbalances leads to increased protectionism. Overall, the response to the downturn is ineffective and confrontational, and it turns into a recession as severe as in the early 1980s." Scenario 2.) Sustainable World: In this scenario, the international economic frictions that have been in the headlines can be resolved, and attention focuses instead on the resolution of common problems, including environmental ones. There is widespread consensus on recipes for economic stability and growth, and co-operation among the largest economies allows economic shocks to be defused rather than accentuated. The dangers of a failure in international trade negotiations are recognized, and interdependence - especially between the U.S.A. and Japan-is seen to be too great for 'divorce' to be a feasible option. Regional conflicts are dealt with effectively by large power alliances. A new security framework is built in Europe around the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE).

The Greenhouse Doomsday Scenario Jeremy Rifkin, The Washington Post, Sunday, 31 July 1988, C3. A global warming scenario to 2035.

In the mid-21st Century, the world is hotter by 4-15 degrees F. Current industrial growth, fossil fuel use, and consumption continued unchanged - global temperature rise was destined to be the result. "By 2035 there were palm trees in New York City, Holland was under water, Bangladesh no longer existed; there were parched deserts in central Europe and the US Midwest, and the Canadian population swelled to 200 million." This scenario concludes that the only effective means of absorbing Co2 is through reforestation, but currently, the rate of deforestation is 10 times greater than reforestation. Reducing Co2 will require enormous worldwide coordination and mobilization.

Our Drowning World: Population, Pollution, and Future Weather. Anthony Milne, Bridgeport, Dorset UK: Prism Press, March 1988/154p. An environmental scenario to mid-21st Century.

The author describes the earth getting warmer, in which rising tidal levels may be the most critical environmental problem of the coming century. "During two centuries of progress we have been our own 'Horsemen of the Apocalypse,' killing not with fire and sword but by unleashing ill-understood and complex chemical and biological processes." The author describes a pessimistic floodwave scenario of the end of the world as we know it, due to warming. "Our assault on nature was driven by what was perceived as the virtue of accumulation, and for a long time we excused it as cruel innocence, a tolerable side effect of progress. But it turned into a culture of consumption and an inexcusable threat to human survival."

Los Angeles 2007: Implications of a Scenario Analysis for Energy Forecasting, Stephen M. Millett Planning Review May/June 1992. Three scenarios of L.A. to 2007.

Using alternative scenarios of possible future conditions, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWAP) has developed contingency plans to meet long-term demand in the most efficient and economical manner. Scenario 1.) Continued trends: In this extrapolation of current statistics, the population grows to 10.8 million by 2007; growth in per capita income is moderate; the regulatory environment remains the same; fuels increase in price between 3 and 8 percent per year; advances in technologies using electricity create modest increases in total demand; technologies improving the efficiency of generation and transmission of electricity make minor advances; rates charged by LADWP rise at or near the inflation rate: demand for electricity increases slowly and steadily, mostly in the commercial and residential categories. Scenario 2.) Technology Pull for Electricity: "Innovations in certain technologies, such as electric cars, vastly increases demand, especially in the residential category; Federal regulation toughens; fuel costs rises mor than 8 percent per year; co-and self-generation of electricity by commercial and industrial customers increases; LADWP rates rise faster than inflation; population ranges from 8.8 to 9.8 million; and growth in per capital income is moderate." Scenario 3.) Reduced Demand for Electricity: "Adoption of the electric car and other demand-creating technology is slow; regulation is weak, co-and self-generation facilities increase; power station generation or transmission technologies don't become significantly more efficient; the cost of fuel increases less than 3 percent per year or even declines slightly; LADWP rates increase at or near inflation rate; current economic and demographic trends continue; electricity sales to residential, commercial and industrial categories falls almost to 1986 levels, largely due to conservation."

Twelve Scenarios for Southern California Edison, Case Study Planning Review May/June 1992. Twelve scenarios of the energy environment for Southern California to 21st century.

In 1986, Southern California edison completed a review of its planning practices over the past 20 years. The company decided that the best way to plan for future uncertainties is to postulate a series of plausible scenarios and prepare flexible responses for each of them. After a historical review of trends and a scenario planning analysis, the following 12 scenarios are presented and in the article, coupled with responses. Scenario 1.) Economic Bust: "the nation is in a protracted depression, the result of a U.S. imposed high tariff on imports, followed by retaliations, which greatly reduce international trade...The reduced level of economic activity results in a direct loss of 3,000 megawatts of load..." Scenario 2.) High Fuel Cost: "extremely high oil prices and sluggish economic growth are triggered by such events as the re-emergence of OPEC. The price of ooil skyrockets to $80/bbl and the resulting shock creates a global economic recession much like the mid 1970s." Scenario 3.) Extensive Bypass: "Plentiful supplies of natural gas, improvements in micro-cogeneration systems, and high SCE rates induce many industrial and commercial customers to provide their own power..." Scenario 4.) Expanded Environmentalism: "drastic environmental restrictions on air emissions, water quality, waste disposal, and land use are imposed on Southern California to meet EPA standards ..." Scenario 5.) Noncompetitive Pricing: "SCE's efforts to contain "uneconomic bypass" cogenerators have been unsuccessful. Sales lost to self-generation increase, and SCE's ability to maintain its cost competitiveness is in jeopardy. As a result, the company loses 1,000 megawatts of load". Scenario 6.) Economy Imports: "An abundance of externally generated, low-cost energy is now available for purchase by SCE from new hydro projects in Canada;..." Scenario 7.) Generation Shutdown: "Two thousand megawatts of SCE-owned baseload capacity is lost due to events beyond the company's control..." Scenario 8.) Conflict: "Because of global tensions, a large military buildup occurs. California defense contractors increase production of airplanes, missiles, and space weapons..." Scenario 9.) Electrification: "A sudden wave of new electrical devices, processes, and applications on the market. There is also a big increase in industrial electricity usage and wide acceptance of electrical powered vehicles..." Scenario 10.) Low Oil Prices: "A period of strong economic growth is bolstered by low oil prices as a result of declining open power or the discovery of new resources elsewhere..." Scenario 11.) Economic Boom: "There is an explosion of economic activity in California created by strong economic activity throughout the Pacific Rim, which produces a large proportion of the world's manufactured goods, particularly electronics, computers, automobiles, steel, machinery, aerospace, and textiles. China and Japan rival the U.S. as the largest consumer markets in the world." Scenario 12.) Base Case Business Environment: "Assumes a continuation of present trends. These include economic expansion, a continued shift from heavy industry to services, moderate inflation, stable prices for oil and gas fuels, intensified environmental quality concerns, and continued residential construction and customer growth within SCE's service territory."

Environmental Futures: Four Visions from the Appalachian Trail Rik Scarce, Futures Research Quarterly, 4:1, Spring 1988, 5-22. Four environmental scenarios to 2000.

In 1986 the Appalachian Trail Conference (ATC) established a Long-Range Planning Committee (LRP) to look at environmental and control issues affecting the Appalachian Trail (AT). The committee wrote a report, Alternative Futures for the Appalachian Trail and Appalachian Trail Conference in the Year 2000 that included scenarios derived from an extensive alternative futures matrix. The matrix and four scenarios are presented. Scenario 1.) Continued Growth: "an optimistic scenario extrapolating trends touting the success of U.S. economic liberalism, achievements in technology, and the promise of general advancement for all. Tensions between the icehouse effect (another theory about climate change) and the greenhouse effect stabilizes world climate. The AT is managed by private hands and private funds, with the ATC as a shining example of the success of private groups directing the use of public lands." Scenario 2.) Decline and Stagnation: "the economy is weak and American life is chaotic. Ecological changes along the Trail are most profound and the demand for wood, long the primary fuel of developing countries, skyrocketed in the US, as natural gas and oil prices rose." Scenario 3.) Sustainable Society: "a new set of values gains growing acceptance throughout the US. The bioregional concept, based on the geographical, floral, and faunal characteristics of given areas, appealed to people from coast to coast who were disgusted with the ever increasing environmental degradation. The Trail stands as a symbol of these new values and is well taken care of." Scenario 4.) The Transformation Future: "people realize the importance of individual freedom. The work-hard-for-money 80's was appreciated, but there is more to life than that. There are many choices since society has become high-tech. New technology and increased leisure time have influenced the Appalachian Trail in profound ways."

Paradigms in Progress: Life Beyond Economics. Hazel Henderson. Knowledge Systems (1991); Berrett-Koehler, 1995. Environmental scenario to the 21st century.

Social and environmental costs increasingly challenge the price system and GNP/GDP calculators of economic growth as "progress." The rise of civil society: the world's informal, non-money sectors and citizen movements for corporate and government accountability compete for media and policy attention. The search for new values and "earth ethics" leads to new statistics beyond GNP/GDP which are inter-disciplinary and measure "quality of life" directly.

Dead Heat: The Race Against the Greenhouse Effect. Michael Oppenheimer and Robert H. Boyle, A New Republic Book. NY: Basic Books, April 1990/268. A global warming scenario to 2050.

In this scenario, a series of disasters from the mid-1990s until 2050 devastate the continental United States. The cause - global warming. This book considers the many strategies that might be applied toward reducing the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Into the 21st Century: A Handbook for a Sustainable Future. Brian C. Burrows, Alan J. Mayne and Paul Newbury, Adamine Studies of the 21st Century, #1. Twickenham UK: Adamantine Press, Aug 1991/442p. Three scenarios of sustainable development to 2100.

After considering world models and past scenarios of world futures, the authors provide the following alternative scenarios of sustainability. Scenario 1.) A Pessimistic Scenario: unchecked continuation of present trends. In the 1990s, widespread conflict continues in the Middle East despite efforts to build a lasting peace. As a result, oil production is reduced and major pollution problems occur. Terrorism becomes an increasing problem around the world. Environmental damage continues unabated as economic expedience overrides long-term sustainability. In the 21st century, the situation worsens as climate change resulting from global warming, combined with massive population growth, results in wide-scale environmental destruction. Scenario 2.) A Piecemeal Scenario: various environmental problems facing the planet are tackled, but slowly and separately. The Middle East conflict continues with much destruction to the environment but relatively small loss of life. The economies of Eastern Europe make a successful transition to capitalism while poverty and malnutrition becomes endemic in the developing world. China's industrial development adds to the greenhouse gas problem. Although some technological "fixes" have solved a few problems, accidents by technology, such as nuclear power plant explosions, contaminate urban and rural areas. Scenario 3.) An Optimistic Scenario: a new world social order emerges and problems are dealt with systemically. Private enterprise becomes more responsive to the environmental needs of the planet. This, combined with public pressure, results in dramatic reductions in energy and resources. The improved economic and political climate results in a decline of social tensions and a reduction in terrorism. In the 21st century, many of the world's problems are well on the way to being solved. By the mid-21st century the standard of living for all of the world's people begins to increase significantly as new technologies (for example, solar energy, genetic engineering, and computers), are put to uses that benefit humanity.

2050: Standing Room Only? Carl Haub, The Washington Post, Sunday, 8 July 1990, C3. Population scenarios to 2050.

This article makes a plausible argument against conventional population projections. The author believes that population growth will in fact be much higher by 2050. The article utilizes mini-scenarios to illustrate population trends. Recent trends suggest that generally accepted UN estimates of a world population peaking at around 10.2 billion people may be too low, citing such things as the increase in fertility in some industrialized countries and decreasing commitment to controlling population growth in the developing world.

Beyond the Petroleum Age: Designing a Solar Economy. Christopher Flavin and Nicholas Lenssen. Worldwatch Paper 100. Washington: Worldwatch Institute. Dec. 1990/65p. A practical energy scenario to 2030.

The authors describe a scenario that is driven by sustainable energy technologies becoming increasingly cost-effective. In this scenario, a major transition from petroleum energy sources to sustainable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric) occurs in the early part of the 21st century. These renewable energy sources will be cleaner and more secure than current petroleum-based sources. By 2030, renewable energy will supply much of the world's energy needs - 50 to 70 percent of current U.S. needs, for example, can be plausibly supplied by renewable energy.

The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Joel B. Smith and Dennis A. Tirpak, NY: Hemisphere Publishing Corp. May 1990/689p. Global warming scenarios to 2100.

A variety of computer-based scenarios using different meteorological variables identify a series of impacts that could result from global climate change. These impacts include: changes in water availability and quality, a one-meter rise in sea level by 2100 resulting in 25% to 80% of U.S. coastal wetlands being drowned; reduction in food crop production; significant changes in the country's forests by the mid-21st century; a reduction of air quality in urban areas; increase in the mortality rate of the population, and increased demand for electricity.
 
 The Cosmic Winter. Victor Clube and Bill Napier. Oxford UK and Cambridge MA: Basil Blackwell, March 1990/307p. An asteroid scenario.

This book opens with an apocalyptic scenario of Earth encountering a cosmic swarm of asteroids. The first few strikes occur in the Midwest of the U.S. and are initially interpreted as low-level nuclear attack. "The Secretary is informed that the damage corresponds to explosions amounting to at least twenty megatons. …The conclusion seems unavoidable that for some reason the Soviets have targeted bombs onto American territory, having somehow circumvented military radar." Within 24 hours the entire earth is bombarded by this terrestrial catastrophe. Clube discusses "terrestrial catastrophism" - the idea that the evolution of life and fundamental geological processes were actually controlled by sudden impacts of material from space. The conventional view is "that earth evolves in splendid isolation from its surroundings." According to the authors, this is proving to be wrong. "Swarms of asteroids that have crossed earth's path have been proven to have occurred and had thus affected cosmic winters and sudden cooling of the globe over the past 5000 years."

Our Country, The Planet: Forging a Partnership for Survival. Shridath Ramphal, Washington: Island Press, May 1992/291p. Three scenarios of the environment to the year 2000.

This book is actually derived from a personal statement by the former foreign minister of Guyana on the agenda of the Earth Summit. It contains a number of chapters on the environmental state of the world and concludes with three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Muddling Through: "a continuation of the present pattern of inadequate ad hoc responses to developments as they become critical. This is a scenario of well-intentioned but usually limited action; fire fighting rather than fire prevention. Only lip service is paid to the "precautionary principle" of minimizing, and wherever possible, preventing discharges of substances that would be harmful and of ensuring that products and processes are nonpolluting." Scenario 2.) An Ordered World: "the IMF and World Bank gain power as these institutions increasingly tackle global environmental problems, but on the overall, failure ensues because external values and methods are imposed on communities that more often have a better understanding about how to manage resources than outsiders." Scenario 3) Enlightened Change: the path of shared responsibility for our common future. A significant degree of multilateral commitment to environment and development, and ascendancy of democratic values worldwide. A good line is struck between self-denial and self-indulgence. Multilateral funds finance sustainable development.

Factors Shaping and Shaped by the Environment: 1990-2010. Joseph F. Coates J.F. Coates Inc, Washington, Futures Research Quarterly, 7:3, Fall 1991, 5-55. Six regional scenarios of the environment to 2010.

Despite a mixed regional situation, the overall prospects for environmental improvement are poor. These scenarios provide a glimpse of the major trends driving each region, and environmental consequences from the perspective of 1991. Scenario 1.) Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc: the openness of glasnost reveals massive environmental degradation and economic systems ill-equipped to deal with it - the hope is a massive Civilian Conservation Corps-like program. Scenario 2.) Taiwan: rapid economic growth is both cause and cure. It leads to a very degraded environmental situation, but provides the financial means for a subsequent cleanup. Scenario 3.) Western Europe: environmental prospects are the brightest here of any region in the world. Scenario 4.) Brazil: faces the problems of rapid industrialization and world outcry about the degradation of its rain forests. A promising development are debt-for-nature swaps. Scenario 5.) China: faces the problems of industrialization, but unlike many other developing nations, has it's population growth more or less effectively under control. Scenario 6.) Sub-Saharan Africa: grim prospects as governance deteriorates and limits effective actions, and population growth is largely unchecked.

From Growth to Equity and Sustainability: Paradigm Shift in Transport Planning? Ian Masser, Ove Svinden, and Michael Wegener Futures, 24:6, July - Aug 1992, 539-558. Two scenarios of transportation in Europe to 2020.

The Network for European Communications and Transport Activities Research was set in 1986, "involving more than 70 scholars from 19 European countries in a series of research projects. One project sought to explore the future evolution of transport and communications in Europe and to discuss alternatives for an integrated policy. The year 2020 was chosen as the forecasting horizon." Future Survey Annual 1994 This report poses two scenarios of transport and communications in Europe. Key assumptions driving the scenarios are: continuing legitimacy of the European government, population of 400-500 million, and no big catastrophes. Scenario 1.) Basically a scenario of growth, equity, and environmental sustainability. Scenario 2.) A horror scenario, considered most likely by experts if the growth path of Western European economies continues. There will be "unparalleled spatial disparities between regions and cities, congested roads, a collapsed public transport system, a disappearing countryside, and a devastated environment."

The Future of World Population, Wolfgang Lutz, Population Bulletin, 49:1, June 1994/47p. World population scenarios to 2030.

This is a report based on a late 1992 meeting of demographers at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis. Key trends discussed were: world population continues to grow; developing countries will account for a growing share of the population; and average age increases will take place in all regions. This report provided a full array of scenarios. Scenario 1) Baseline: moderate levels of fertility decline and mortality improvement yields a world population of 9.5 billion in 2030 or 12.6 billion in 2100; Scenario 2.) High Migration, High Mortality, Low Fertility: world population is 8.3 billion in 2030; Scenario 3.) Low Migration, Low Mortality, High Fertility: world population is 10.7 billion in 2030; Scenario 4.) Low Migration, Low Mortality, Low Fertility: world population is 9 billion in 2030.

Energy for Tomorrow's World: The Realities, the Real Options, and the Agenda for Achievement. World Energy Council, WEC Commission. London: Kogan Page & NY: St. Martin's Press , Dec 1993/320p. Energy scenarios to 2020.

The World Energy Council developed four energy scenarios to illustrate future possibilities in a world of 8.1 billion people by 2020, with global demand ranging from 17.2 gigatons (Gtoe) oil equivalent in a "high growth" scenario to 11.3 Gtoe in an "ecologically driven" scenario. Major concerns are reflected in the proposed Agenda for Action, such as increasing availability of non-fossil fuels, curbing harmful emissions, and removing institutional rigidities. This report concludes that, beyond 2020, the magnitude of supply problems could expand drastically, especially if higher global energy demand occurs and too little is done to develop alternatives.

The Fragile Tropics of Latin America: Sustainable Management of Changing Environments. Edited by Toshie Nishizawa and Juha I. Uitto, Tokyo: United Nations University Press, March 1995/325p. Two scenarios of sustainability to 2030.

Two scenarios in the next forty years are made for tropical Latin America, a region that is critical to global health with its biodiversity and natural resources. Scenario 1.) Reference Scenario: continuation of trends that push the agricultural frontier and intensifies land use. Moderate economic growth and decreasing national regulations cause the unchanged mode of development, expanding influence of transnational corporations, and the dominance of market forces. Social and economic inequities can only increase. The performance of environmental policies are ineffective, further threatening ecosystems due to an export-oriented economy. New technology fails in its application. International coordination of economic policies would reform the external debt of the LDC, reversing the current net capital flow from the South to the North. Scenario 2.) Sustainable Scenario: characterized by the satisfaction of the needs of the population, better economic and social equities, participation, and decentralization. Assumptions are the implementation of national and regional environmental policies; R&D focusing on regional issues; social and economic reforms; land use zoning and regulation of the agricultural frontier; industrial policies for renewable and non-renewable natural resources and agriculture; the development of local energy sources; technological innovations for the revalorization of the renewable natural resources, and the development of new sustainable productive uses and internal and international market "windows of opportunity", especially regarding tropical forests and agricultural production. The technological pluralism (complementary use of traditional, modern, and high technology), and productive pluralism (the coexistence of different types of agriculture), are emphasized. Future Survey Annual 1996
 

Growing Green: Enhancing the Economic and Environmental Performance of U.S. Agriculture. Paul Faeth (WRI). Washington: World Resources Institute, April 1995/81p. Six scenarios of sustainable agriculture to the 21st century.

US economic and environmental performance in agriculture can be enhanced, with special focus on subsidy programs. Scenarios illustrate the study's findings. Scenario 1.) Standard Baseline: reflects policies enacted in the Food, Agriculture, Conservation and Trade Act. Only predominant production practices are represented in the standard base line. Scenario 2.) Extended Baseline: the policy assumptions remain the same, but the alternative production practices are analyzed with more conventional ones. Scenario 3.) Supercompliance: introduces a tighter conservation-compliance regulation in commodity practices. Scenario 4.) Fixed Subsidy for Best Management Practices Scenario: assumes nationwide extension of the Agricultural Conservation Program, providing cost-shares for conservation practices. Scenario 5.) Adjustable Subsidy for Soil and Water Quality: examines the benefit of targeting. Subsidies are based on performance, determined by the value of avoided damages to off-site water quality. Scenario 6.) Adjustable Subsidies with Program Cuts: increases unpaid acreage (normal flex acres) from 15% to 50%. As a result of this study, a major reduction in agriculture's impact on the environment is possible as well as economically advantageous.

World Supply and Demand Projections for Cereals, 2020. Mercedita C. Agcaoili and Mark W. Rosegrant Listing of 2020 Briefs file:///B!.NUMBER02.HTM. Three scenarios of world cereal supply to 2020.

Three scenarios of world food and supply. Scenario 1.) Current Growth Rates will Continue: baseline scenario describing the developed countries producing more than they consume, but cereal deficits in developing countries continue to increase to the year 2020. Scenario 2.) 20 Percent Reduction in Yield Growth Rates: presents the likely cereal supply and demand situation if yield rates are 20 percent lower than their current levels. Scenario 3.) "Scenario 2" Plus a 20 Percent Reduction in Income Growth Rates in Developing Countries: compounds the slower yield growth (in scenario 2), with a 20 percent decline in the growth of national incomes in developing countries.

The Wealth of Notions - The Ecological Revolution and the Power of Ideas. William K. Shireman Global Futures Foundation Internet: http://www/quiknet.com/globalff/globnoti.html. Two scenarios of sustainability to early 21st century.

Study of sustainability by Global Futures Foundation. Key trends are: increasing resource depletion and increasing ability to conserve energy (Negawatts and Immaterials). Three things businesses need to do: identify waste, eliminate waste, and count the money they save. Scenario 1.) Sustainable Growth: taxes on consumption, energy efficiency, reduced transportation growth, stabilizing population. Scenario 2.) Industrial Growth: taxes penalize income and investment, little energy efficiency, industrializing countries follow industrial model, education remains stagnant, population grows.

The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Joel B. Smith and Dennis A. Tirpak NY: Hemisphere Publishing Corp. May 1990/689p. Scenarios of global climate change from 2000 to 2100.

The Environmental Protection Agency pulled together a variety of scenarios to determine the impacts of global climate change. Impacts include: changes in water availability and quality; a one-meter rise in sea level by 2100 resulting in 25% to 80% of U.S. coastal wetlands being drowned; reduction in food crop production; significant changes in the country's forests by the mid-21st century; a reduction of air quality in urban areas; increase in the mortality rate of the population; and increased demand for electricity.

Renewable Energy from the Ocean: A Guide to OTEC. William A. Avery and Chih Wu. NY: Oxford Press, March 1994/446p. Two U.S. energy scenarios to 2020.

Two scenarios for commercial development are proposed: Scenario 1.) Methanol Commercialization: "construction of 427 methanol plantships at about $500 million each with enough total capacity to replace the imported petroleum used in the US; if financial support is maintained, the program can be completed by 2020." Scenario 2.) Ammonia Commercialization: "construction of 1,681 ammonia plantships at about $450 million each to supply enough fuel to replace all gasoline used in the US in 1990. The principal differences between the two scenarios are that replacing gasoline with ammonia fuel would entirely eliminate carbon emissions, but would require a larger automobile adaptation cost."

Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability. Global Scenario Group, California Institute of Technology http:// www.hf.caltech.edu/hf. Six scenarios of sustainable development.

Global scenarios divided into three broad categories: Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions. Conventional Worlds "have in common a vision of a world where development, governed by the growth dynamics of industrial society, is gradual and steady. Population grows and aggregate economic output expands indefinitely while consumption and production practices in developing and transitional regions converge toward those of industrialized countries, even as the latter become much richer. The world becomes progressively more integrated both economically and culturally." Within Conventional Worlds, there are two scenarios. Scenario 1.) Reference Scenario: economic growth is given first priority as economies open and largely unregulated markets expand internationally. While some countries, groups and firms lose the race and are excluded, many prosper. Technological development is rapid, driven by market opportunities. Scenario 2.) Balanced Growth: growth-oriented, but assumes a comprehensive policy response to the environmental and social risks encountered in the Reference scenario. This scenario does not assume major deviations in the conventional development paradigm, values, and institutional structures, but within those constraints incorporates rapid economic growth, greater distributional equity, and vigorous attempts to protect the environment. Barbarization scenarios "explore the possibility that the coming century will be far grimmer than the conventional wisdom. Barbarization scenarios assume that the negative stresses present in Conventional Worlds scenarios overwhelm the coping capacity of markets and management institutions. The world veers toward Barbarization - worlds of sharply declining physical amenities and widespread breakdown in the social and moral underpinnings of civilization. The major driving forces initially propelling this scenario include worldwide political and economic changes, inequity and persistent poverty, growing populations, increasing environmental problems, and rapid technological innovation." Within Barbarization, there are two scenarios. Scenario 1.) Breakdown: the degree of conflict and rivalry between the different international actors has become so high that no long-term concerted actions are possible. Chaos rather than coherence becomes the order of the day. Scenario 2.) Fortress

World: the rich international actors comprehend the dangers of forces leading to the Breakdown scenario that confront them, and are able to muster a sufficiently organized response to protect their own interests and to create lasting alliances between them. Arising within the cynical and pessimistic social mood of Barbarization conditions, these alliances are not directed at improving the general well-being, but at protecting the privileges of the rich and powerful elites. Great Transitions: scenarios "explore the possibility that global society, rather than continuing its present course (Conventional Worlds) or descending into cruelty and chaos (Barbarism), evolves to a higher stage." These scenarios may seem idealistic and improbable from today's perspective-but they are possible, and may even be necessary to achieve the goals of sustainability and equity. The scenarios are Global Governance and the New Sustainability Paradigm, which differ in their mechanisms but not in their (quantitative) endstates. One feature common to these scenarios is the emergence of three important new social actors: intergovernmental global organizations, transnational corporations, and non- governmental organizations.

HUMANITY COMES INTO ITS OWN - The First Truly Human and Global Society Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

This scenario assumes that the full economic and social effects of recent technological advances are still far from realized, and that they are likely to propel a widespread and lasting surge of economic growth-growth that will be surprisingly widespread and, in developing regions, very rapid. Further, this wave of rising prosperity will bring peace and increasing individual freedom to an unprecedented proportion of the world's people. This scenario acknowledges that many environmental problems may worsen (although some may eventually turn around) and that economic disparities may increase, but asserts that these stresses will not be sufficient to undermine progress in most regions. The result, a century hence, will be the first truly human and global society.

The Environment in Geopolitical Relations. Ike Chang and Lloyd Dixon, RAND. Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

A new paradigm of geopolitical relations emerges in which the environment acts as the basis of political, economic, and military relations between rich and poor countries. National leaders of rich countries couch their foreign policies in terms of environmental protection. Political regimes of poor countries threaten the world with environmental contamination to extract financial concessions and political support from richer countries. Eventually, military actions are justified under the rationale of "protecting the global environment."

III. TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACITY

At Home With High Technology (Special Issue), IEEE Spectrum, 22:5, May 1985. A technology scenario, late 20th to 21st century.

Article on high-tech home systems and a scenario on what could happen if the systems do not perform as they should. Tongue-in-cheek account of high-tech devices malfunctioning in the home, including an automatic sprinkler system, the VCR, remote-controlled appliances, and a built-in security system, among others.

The Possible Futures of Multimedia Anderson Consulting, 1994. http://www.ac.com/tag/execsum.html. Four scenarios of multimedia to the 21st century.

Anderson Consulting tackles the uncertainties of multimedia technologies using scenario based planning. The scenario development process involved a cross-section of expertise from both inside and outside the firm. The work revealed two major uncertainties or driving forces that is believed to have significant influence on how multimedia technology will impact the future: the quality of demand and the state of the economy. Scenario 1.) Virtual World: is a richly interactive future - a future in which business and consumer users don't so much choose as co-create the products and services they want. So important is multimedia in Virtual World that it begins to blue the boundaries between "business" and "consumer" environments, and contributes to a fundamental restructuring of industry. Scenario 2.) Bizworld: multimedia plays out differently in the consumer and business environments. In the consumer market, it is simply a tool to navigate through many choices. In the business market, applications are more robust and provide businesses a means of creating a more productive work environment. Scenario 3.) Upstairs Downstairs: is a future that plays out the polarization of wealth in the developed nations as well as a split of the population across the acceptance of technology lines. This results in a scenario of haves and have-nots. It combines features of Virtual World (haves) and Slow Boat (have-nots). Scenario 4.) Slow Boat: is a blocked scenario - a scenario in which the big news is no real news. Slow Boat is a world in which users accept limited choice as the primary value-added, and in which the economy stays slow. Multimedia is the revolution that never came.

How Digital Uses Scenarios to Rethink the Present, Lucia Luce Quinn and David H. Mason Planning Review November/December 1994. Five scenarios utilized as business models.

This case study of scenario planning at Digital shows how top management uses the process for testing, probing, pushing, and provoking strategic thinking about the future. Middle managers find the scenarios helpful for modeling their current businesses. Mason: "Most people believe that scenarios are always about the future, but this is not so. Scenarios can offer different perspectives on what is happening today and can stimulate productive discussions. The scenarios we developed at Digital were actually business models, not long-term visions." Interesting alternative view of scenarios. Quinn goes on to describe the models. Model A: addressed commodity businesses. Model B: concerned an architectural franchise or technology-driven business. Model C: was a networking and utilities business at a time beyond the initial stage of convergence. (Convergence is the concept that data transmissions, cable, phone, software, and computers will become a unified system). Model D: was the systems-integration business. Regardless of the product or service, such businesses provide value added solutions, mainly through their people skills. Model E: was what most managers consider an ideal business.

Rethinking Nuclear Power, Richard K. Lester, Scientific American, 254:3, March 1986, 31-39. Scenarios of nuclear power to 2000.

An excellent and highly technical overview of nuclear power. At the end of the article, two scenarios are presented. "The range of possible futures for nuclear power in the U.S. thus comes down to three broad possibilities. One is a return to Light-Water Reactor (LWR) technology in an improved form, perhaps in as little as a decade. The revival of the technology would take place within a more streamlined industry, with fewer and more competent organizations operating in a stabler regulatory climate. Foreign LWR suppliers, having enjoyed livelier domestic markets in the meantime, would introduce many of the improvements and might figure commercially in the U.S. revival. In the second scenario conventional LWR's would fail to regain commercial acceptance, but after some years one or more second-generation reactor technologies conceived for small size, passive safety and centralized, modular fabrication would reestablish nuclear power as a major source of electricity for the next century. At the moment it is not possible to say which of the first two scenarios represents the likelier outcome, and indeed there is no need to do so. Efforts to reform existing institutions and to improve conventional technologies should go forward along with explorations of radical new technologies. Neglecting either approach will make all the likelier the third outcome: the disappearance of nuclear power as an option for the future. That is a loss the nation could ill afford."

Arthur C. Clark's July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st Century. Arthur C. Clarke (Sri Lanka). An Omni Book. NY: Macmillan, Nov. 1986/281p. A technology scenario to 2019.

Direct communication between the mind and computers is the dominant element of this scenario about work in the 21st century. A multitude of computer-based assistants do most of the routine tasks - filing, scheduling, bookkeeping and the like - while humans take care of problems that aren't easily anticipated, making complex decisions, and exercising their creativity. At the heart of this scenario is a set of technologies that includes artificial intelligence (AI), intelligence amplifiers, and mind-computer linkages.

Bulletin From the Future, Max Frankel. New York Times Magazine, September 29, 1996. A computer scenario to the year 2096.

Scenario of a drastic event in which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announces that an epidemic is spreading on all continents, clogging channels of communication, including live links to human nervous systems (in this scenario, miniature or nano-tech computers are inside human beings). The agency advises that a computer virus has been unleashed, which appears to have incapacitated key links in the Universal Network and destroyed financial records across the earth. The most severe damage occurs in advanced nations, with the United States standing to lose nearly a century's records. The entire world goes back to the use of paper, and the bulletin announces, for example, that the "USA Times-Journal will publish limited paper bulletins containing Government advisories and other crisis news, but without its customary interactive features, games, and advertisements. The company is reopening printing plants that were mothballed a decade ago when the last subscribers switched to compuphones that receive customized newspapers. " The CDC is working urgently to develop an effective vaccine that will repel the guilty virus and permit at least limited resumption of computer management and an early restoration of public services." Culprit suspected to be from Asia.

Toward the Electronic Book, Nathanial Lande, Publishers Weekly, 20 Sept 1991, 28-30. Smartcards scenario to the 21st century.

This article sketches a "scenario" of users inserting re-usable Smartcards into vending machines called Bookbanks. These smartcards are about the same size as credit cards, and Bookbanks can be found in bookstores and libraries around the world. These digitized cards have a 200-megabyte capacity that can contain an average of 200 books. They can be inserted into a Bookmark player with a paper size screen. The Bookmark player would have such features as buttons to turn pages, and an adapter for CD-Rom disc and video play. This is technologically feasible, and "although the electronic book will not soon replace the pleasures of book covers and pages to turn, in time it will become standard as the Nintendo generation, a generation much more familiar with computer visuals than with print, catches on." Publishers will benefit because problems of distribution, printing, and storage will be eliminated and there are enormous environmental advantages in keeping millions of acres of forest out of the paper pulp mills. Potential solution to deforestation, using technology and market forces.

The Information Millennium: Alternative Futures. Clement Bezold and Robert L. Olson, Washington: Information Industry Association. Information scenarios to 2000.

A study of the future of information conducted by the Institute for Alternative Futures for the Information Industry Association, poses four scenarios driven by advanced information technologies. Scenario 1.) The High-Tech Information Society: a booming economy, traditional American "achievement values," and advanced information technologies drive the high-tech information society. The information industry grows at twice the rate of the GNP. Information products and services are individually tailored. Privacy is not a problem as a result of both new encryption technologies and public acceptance of less privacy. Government plays a limited role in the information marketplace and there is a heavy reliance on the marketplace to resolve problems relating to the information society. Scenario 2.) The Creative Society: rapid technological progress and a dynamic economy drive this scenario. However, the information revolution and a profound change in values result in more expressive, socially focused actions. Personal growth and social progress are as important as financial success. Privacy is rigorously protected. Government interference in the information marketplace is very limited. Scenario 3.) Things Bog Down: slow technological progress, significant failures in artificial intelligence technologies, and poor economic conditions result in slow growth of the information society. Privacy becomes a major concern and government takes a major role in regulating the information economy. A gap between the "knows" and "know-nots" develops. Scenario 4.) 1984 and Beyond: tough economic times, an AIDS epidemic, and terrorism lead to public acceptance of greater government surveillance and control. Privacy is swept away as government and corporate access to sensitive personal information becomes commonplace.

Information Technology and Global Interdependence. Edited by Meheroo Jussawalla, Tadayuki Okuma and Toshihiro Araki. Westport CR: Greenwood Press, July 1989/321p. Information technology scenario to 2016.

A scenario on the impact of ISDN (integrated services digital networks) on interdependence - 30 year scenario of development to 2016, culminating in an emerging "world brain" concept of managing complexity, and a possible series of "information wars" or information terrorism. 

Great Infrastructure Debate. An Industry Leader Symposium by Northeast Consulting Resources, Inc., Boston, Massachusetts. Internet:http:/www. file:///B!/GID394.HTM. Information highway scenarios to 2000.

Thirty planners, policy makers, and thinkers from a diverse group of organizations came together in 1994 to participate in a two-day conference to debate alternative scenarios for the evolution of the US Information Superhighway. Key Findings: There is a great deal of risk associated with all of the different models for infrastructure build out. There are so many competing approaches that all can't possibly be successful. Five scenarios were presented and plausibly linked to the future of the information superhighway. Scenario 1.) ClubInfo: alliances of carrier, content provider, and ancillary companies are formed to rapidly build an infrastructure and do the systems required to deliver information services. Although each alliance is comprised of many independent companies, a common brand name is used for alliance services. Scenario 2.) Welcome to the Carnival: rapid advances in technology drive an explosion in the number of communications and content services and corresponding growth in the number of service providers. Information and edutainment services spring up on a variety of networks, which include plain old telephone service (POTS), cellular, cable television (CATV), database services (DBS), etc. Scenario 3.) The Information Empowered Society: technology takes a back seat to national interests. The construction of a national infrastructure creates a competitive advantage for the United States in a global economy. Government sponsorship and stewardship ensures that a network linking schools, libraries, hospitals, homes, and businesses is not trivalized by the commercial sector. Government must be a strong advocate to ensure that the national network provides value to the nation. Scenario 4.) Content is King: a network bandwidth is now as much a commodity as personal computers. Network build out provides access to competing networks from most American homes and businesses, leaving carriers with more capacity than content. Competition among carriers has driven down prices. Scenario 5.) Least Time to $: a world in which tight alliances between industry players allow a rapid build out of the infrastructure and rapid deployment of applications that yield revenue. The risks in building an interactive broadband network are huge-the best strategy is to spread the risk among many industry players.

Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution. K Eric Drexler and Chris Peterson, with Gayle Pergamit. Foreword by Stewart Brand. NY: William Morrow, Sept. 1991/304p. Nanotechnology scenarios through the 21st century.

The development of technology for building molecule-sized machines (nanotechnology) results in a host of changes ranging from health to climate. In a series of mini scenarios scattered throughout this book, the impacts of nanotechnology are illustrated. Among the developments: nanomedicine - microscopic devices injected into the body that will hunt down and kill cancers, remove injured or diseased tissue, repair arthritic joints, and eliminate wrinkles and unwanted hair. Nanocomputers - computing devices the size of a sugar cube that can outperform any supercomputer currently available and storage devices that let you carry a library containing all the information in the world's libraries in your pocket. Nanoengineering - molecular devices that can be programmed to build flawless cars, bridges, rockets, or whatever you want. Nanoenvironmentalism - microscoping robots that clean toxic substances from the environment. This book also looks at some of the threats that uncontrolled access to nanotechnology would present.

The Museam of Nanotechnology, Charles Platt, Scenarios: Special WIRED Edition. December, 1995. Developments in nanotechnology arrayed as scientific landmarks described in rich imagery by Michael Crumpton. Useful to scenario work.

Nanotechnology - tiny and great leaps for the human race. In the future, nanotechnology is used for everything from DNA Data Storage to Anti-cancer nanomachines to nanoscale braille. A more interesting and grand use of nanotechnology in 2050 is asteroid terraforming. The museum aptly describes it: "Asteroid Terraforming - the asteroid (imaged in the scenario) is being reworked by preprogrammed nanoscale robots to create a fully equipped space habitat for human colonists. The robots were sent out on a conventional rocket that crash-landed on the preselected asteroid. After the nanosystems used indigenous carbon and metal ores to make billions of copies of themselves, they set to work converting the asteroid. When human colonists arrive, they will find comfortable residences ready and waiting. Since this initiative began in 2050, almost 5 million people have relocated to the asteroid belt. Already we are seeing a new generation that has never experienced life on Earth."

The Computer for the 21st Century, Mark Weiser, Scientific American, 265:3, Sept. 1991, 94-104. Computer technology scenario to the 21st century.

Normative scenario of the future of computer technology. Describes a future where computers have become invisible and ubiquitous. Advantages: technology will become faster, easier to use, more personal, and will penetrate all social strata. Weiser states that, most importantly, ubiquitous computing will help to overcome information overload.

Communicating in a Shrinking World. Tony Stevenson, Papers de Prospectiva, Centre UNESCO de Catalunya, Mallorca 285, 08037 Barcelona). Communications scenarios to 2020.

Four scenarios of the year 2020 suggest the possibilities of communications technologies. Scenario 1.) Gold Lame and Sackcloth: in this world, the nation-state is slowly replaced by elite global networks; the have have-not gap continues to widen; more regions are marginalized while culture is globalized with English language more widely used and life becomes more automated while the environment becomes more artificial. Scenario 2.) Drab Uniform: in this world, the confusion of communications and networks encourage global centralizing authorities. Global uniformity, efficiency, and productivity are supreme values. Concentrated networks of business and self-serving interests are enabled by communications and information technologies, thus replacing nation-states. Scenario 3.) Rich Tapestry: in this world, the wealth and information gap begins to close, a rich tapestry of diversity is valued most, the nation-state is largely replaced by a network of communities largely self-organizing at local and regional levels; several languages emerge in international use (especially Chinese). Scenario 4) Bazaar: some slight closing of the rich/poor gap, a variety of fabrics and a mosaic of networks coexist with patches of centralized authority; ownership of networks fairly widespread, great variation among regions.

Future of Telecommunications Scenarios for MCI. MCI Scenario Planning Group. MCI Homepage URL: http://www.rnell.edu/courses/nba610/am6/mci5.html. Four telecommunications scenarios to the year 2014.

A planning group for MCI assessed scenarios of the future of telecommunications. Trends that impact the scenarios include: bandwidth capacity and demand, government regulation, acceptance of digital commerce, convergence of communications and content technologies, revenue source - consumers versus advertisers, mergers and acquisitions, wire versus wireless transmission. Critical uncertainties include the convergence of communications and content technologies and revenue sources - consumers versus advertisers Scenario: 1.) Waldman's World: in this world there is little convergence of communications and content technologies. Consumers are the primary source of revenue. There is a clear distinction between local, long distance and wireless (cellular) services and service providers; the Internet is a commercial flop ( its main purpose is to repackage existing products); users pay for basic access to the telecommunications system and additional charges for useage and extra services. Scenario 2.) Bierman's Basement: like the previous scenario, there is little convergence of communications and content technologies. However, advertisers are the primary source of revenue. In this world, the following occur: there is a clear distinction between telecommunications and cable TV services; internet commerce thrives and is used for designed products, there is a dramatic reduction in the number of telecommunications carriers; telecommunications companies battle cable companies for revenue. Scenario 3.) The Kampas Construct: in this scenario, there is significant convergence of communications and content technologies and consumers are the primary source of revenue. Telecommunications infrastructures merge and become "universal service providers "(USPs). USPs provide wire/wireless communications, networking, and home entertainment; consumers pay for commercial-free entertainment; traditional TV advertising and broadcast networks become endangered. Scenario 4.)The Stayman Situation: like scenario three, there is a significant convergence of communications and content technologies. However, advertisers consumers are the primary source of revenue. Advertisements combine with entertainment as major revenue sources; demographic information and targeted ads sell for a premium; telephone service is cheap; partnering with or acquisition of market research and ratings companies occurs.
 

The Internet - Leveling the Development Playing Field or Broadening the Gap? By Gerald Garner. Internet: http://www.ac.za/departments/journ/awol/internetdev.html. Two Internet and development scenarios to the 21st century.

The Internet is part of the information revolution, pointing 20th century society into a new direction. What does this mean for Africa and for other developing areas? Can the Internet enhance development? Or will it only broaden the gap between the "have" and "have-nots"? Two scenarios of Africa and the information revolution are described: Scenario 1.) Africa takes advantage of the information revolution and leap frogs into a new age of development. This describes the story of Internet enhanced development and closes the have-have not gap by making more people educated and competitive; Scenario 2.) Africa misses the opportunity and is left behind, totally isolated and is far behind the developed world. The biggest problem with the Internet in this world, is access and literacy. People can't use the Internet if they can't read, nor can they if they can't afford to pay for the services.

Technology and the American Economic Transition: Choices for the Future. Office of Technology Assessment, 1988. Http://www.gbn.org/BookClub/OTA html. U.S. technology and economy scenarios to 21st century.

This Office of Technology Assessment report (now formally the OTA), "makes an imaginative, well-analyzed, documented and reasoned argument for the growing impulse that rapid technological change is bringing to the US and other modern industrial economies. It is very rich in data on nearly all aspects of American life and has thoroughly examined a great variety of possibilities in depth. The mode of analysis is genuinely inventive as it explores the networks of consumption and production and how technology could reconfigure those networks." Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network. This book projects four scenarios, with clear logic and two steady growth paths of 3% or 1.5% for the next two decades. The authors came to the surprising conclusion that despite massive technical change there is very little structural and fundamental changes in U.S. society that results from the impacts of technology.

Politics in a Parallel Universe: Is There a Future for Cyberdemocracy? Michael R. Odgen, Futures, 26:7, Sept. 1994, 713-729. Scenarios of cyberdemocracy to 21st century.

For years cyberspace has received little interference from government or business. However, with government, commercial, and public attention turning towards the global Internet and the proposed U.S. national information infrastructure, this is all about to change. Two possible scenarios. Scenario 1.) Cyberdemocracy (or Jeffersonian Networks): "founded on the primacy of individual liberty and committed to pluralism, diversity, and community; largely free of metered services and restricted access; the best "schools" and teachers available to all students; access to government information becomes a right of all "netizens" in the facilitation of their informed participation in the democratic process." Scenario 2.) Virtual Mercantilism (or Digital Gold Rush): "the private sector builds the information highway and controls terms of access, use, and content. This also includes responsibilities for netizens, as suggested by the "bill of Rights and Responsibilities for Electronic Learners."

Nanotechnology: Scenarios of Development and Impact Alan L. Porter and Frederick A. Rossini, Science and Public Policy 17:4 Aug 1990, 229-234. Three nanotechnology scenarios to 21st century.

Nanotechnology is the manipulation of processes at the molecular scale. This article examines nanotechnology and provides three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Incremental impacts that begin in the 1990s. Scenario 2.) High techno-economic impacts, where nanotechnology becomes the basis for much industrial production and underlies infotech. (which could occur by 2015). Scenario 3.) Total societal impact where nanotechnology thoroughly transforms society, the 'engines of creation' create unbounded wealth, and the economics of scarcity are displaced by a new economics of distribution.

Technology Spares the Environment Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

The 21st century emerges as an era of techno-optimism. Accelerating technological advances help to boost industrial efficiencies, prosperity, and environmental sustainability throughout most of the world. These technological advances are driven in part by market competition, which tend to reward firms and societies that produce more for less. The dramatic efficiency gains in the use of land, energy, materials, and labor unleashed by technology and market competition outpace population growth and increases per capita consumption. The world economy becomes better equipped to meet human needs with less land, pollution, and natural resources. Dire warnings of widespread food shortages, pollution, overpopulation, and environmental depletion never materialize.

A Technology-Rich Global Society Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

This scenario assumes that modern food storage and transport techniques can be deployed essentially everywhere over the next 50 years. That alone would double today's useable food supplies. Provision of adequate irrigation water on existing agricultural land would double food supplies again. Thus, even without further gains in yields, food is not a problem if there are adequate supplies of water and energy.
 

More Human Than Man: The Future Evolution and Consequences of Metamachines. Collected works of Patrick Gunkel, c. 1982. Chapter 18, Transitional and Posthuman Scenarios. 304 future scenarios involving metamachines.

"The word 'metamachines' has been coined to refer to mechanical minds or beings whose intellectual, psychic, behavioral, or ontic level or sophistication resembles or even surpasses man's ('metamechanical' is the related adjective). These metamachines of the future will virtually transcend what we mean by machine or by the distinction between mechanical and organic entities; hence they merit a new category and a new designation. Ultimately they will so surpass-in power and complexity-life and mind as we know them that biological organisms and brains will be what deserve derogation as "merely mechanical". Listed here are developmental, transitional, and posthuman scenarios that concern the future of metamachines either directly or indirectly and that are fairly exhaustive of the major possibilities. The scenarios treat different dimensions of the subject, different issues, concepts, problems, and possibilities, different factors, circumstances, sequences, assumptions, and relationships, different chronologies, topics, and perspectives; some represent sets of alternatives, others overlapping, similar, dissimilar, and unrelated possibilities; some are general, others specialized, in nature; some focus on causes, others on effects, still others on abstract relationships; some describe what is probable, others what is merely possible, others what is unlikely or impossible; some are optimistic, some pessimistic; and so on." Some of the 304 scenario titles include: Brain Research Origin Scenario, Robot Civil Rights Scenario, Peace Through A.I. Scenario, A.I. Research Breakthroughs Scenario, Dehumanization of Man by A.I. Scenario.
 

IV. DEMOGRAPHICS AND HUMAN RESOURCES

The Future of Work: A Guide to a Changing Society. Charles Handy, Oxford UK and NY: Basil Blackwell, July 1984/201p. Four scenarios of work to the 21st century.

Handy's central theme is that the world of work will never be the same again, and we are experiencing more than just a cyclical adjustment. New patterns of work are emerging, such as a full-employment society becoming a part-time one, blue collar jobs becoming while collar jobs; industry is declining and services are growing. Four scenarios are discussed as a way of focusing the future options of work: Scenario 1.) Unemployment Scenario: unemployment is seen as a necessary and inevitable cost of bringing down inflation. High unemployment levels are accepted by society for the greater good. Scenario 2.) Leisure Scenario: this scenario gives unemployment a positive twist by foreseeing a leisure society in which the arts and recreation flourish. What work there is will be done by an elite few with the aid of a lot of machines. Scenario 3.) Employment Scenario: the only real form of work is a job, this scenario says. That means having a place to go and, preferably, useful work to do. But even if it is simply "seat-warming," a job in this scenario is preferable to unemployment for both the individual and society. Scenario 4) Work Scenario (advocated by Sandy): according to this scenario, a job is only part of the work and individual doeas. Learning, leisure and community service are the other elements of an individual's work.

Scenarios for a Religious Organization with Branches in five Continents. Eleonora Barbieri Masini. A Paper prepared for the Profutures Workshop, September 27th, 1995. Scenarios on the future of the world religious organization to the years 2001 and 2015.

A fascinating and very extensive scenario study of a religious organization composed of women and created in the nineteenth century as a missionnary endeavor. This organization is curently active in five continents: Australia, United States, Latin America, Africa, Asia, and was prompted to look into its future because of two major factors: changes in the environment in these regions and the aging of the organization from the North and influx of much youger members from the countries of the South. The scenarios expanded to the global, regional and local levels, and were written in three forms: "Trend and utopian scenarios would be used and as many normative scenarios as possible or necessary. The trend scenario involved the various geographical parts of the organization, and of the organization as a whole. Was a description of the situation as it could be expected in 2001 and 2015, against the global and local level, should no decisions be taken in 1994. The utopian scenario envisioned the greatest hopes of the organization members and the normative scenarios were those alternative scenarios that answered the possible goals of the organization as a whole and at the regional levels." Masini concludes that the scenario building exercise achieved it's educational aim and the scenarios themselves provided an important tool for gaining a better understanding of the overall environment.

The Future of News: Television - Newspapers - Wire Services - Newsmagazines. Edited by Phillip S. Cook, Douglas Gomery, and Lawrence W. Lichty. Washington: Wilson Center Press & Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, May 1992/270p. Scenario of news in the year 2000.

Papers and commentary from a Wilson Center conference on the future of news. In the Epilogue, Peter Braestrup sketches a scenario of news in 2000 where proliferating multimedia technologies give the public overwhelming access to news. Factors that influence the content of news by the 21st century are: dramatically increased efforts to raise the quality of education and the continuing diversity of the audience. News becomes specialized. "The expansion, dynamism, and increasing complexity of both government and nongovernment activity have fostered the growth of special publications and even cable TV channels for various kinds of news-news about defense, the environment, law, housing, science, religion, international business-inasmuch as no single newspaper or magazine can now chronicle all significant events in all fields." Stories will also become shorter, as they have been shortening over the past two decades. The attention span of the major news media, already diminishing, will become even more abbreviated. Growing gap continues between the information haves and have nots.
 

Delphi in a Future Scenario on Mental Health and Mental Health Care, Rob Bijl, Futures, 24:3, April 1992, 232-250. Scenario to the 21st century.

A scenario study on mental health and mental health care in the Netherlands over the next two decades. A delphi inquiry formed an essential part of the study and helped build the scenario model. This article describes the delphi process and the scenario building process, then generated the scenario model that served as a backdrop for four mental health themes: dementia and schizophrenia, emotional and behavioral problems in children and adolescents, and occupational incapacity due to mental disorders. For research into how futures methodology can be applied to alternative scenarios of possible and desirable futures in the field of public health and health care, this is a useful article.

Homelessness: A Prevention Oriented Approach. Edited by Rene I. Jahiel, Baltimore: The John Hopkins U Press, June 1992/409p. Three scenarios of homelessness to the 21st century.

Three scenarios for the evolution of homelessness and its prevention in the United States in the short term (i.e., in the next 5-10 years) are constructed, based on the concepts of dominant, challenging, and repressed structural interests. Scenario 1.) the dominant structural interest drives to accelerate the gap between the rich and poor, without a 'trickle down effect' in this social order. People try to ethically justify this situation as the homeless problem becomes more severe. Government does very little , and the homeless problem spins out-of-hand as the homeless are put away from main localities and isolated. Government is forced to increase spending on them, which only develops a 'homeless industry' dealing with homeless operation. Scenario 2.) challenging structural interests drive the government to tackle the homeless problems, but without significant structural changes in economics of housing for the poor or in the power relationships of the repressed low-income groups. Housing still remains a private business and the social welfare system for housing, (e.g., public housing) has not yet developed. Government does not coordinate between challenging and dominate interests and faces many obstacles for legislation and implementation. As a result, only little government funding is spent for selected homeless people. Scenario 3.) repressed structural interests drives extraordinary efforts at the micro and macro level. Some structural changes occur in answer to the push of homeless organizations and demands on the homeless-makers rather than on homeless people. On the micro level, local governments prevent and terminate homelessness, promoting housing for the poor in various innovative ways. This is "advocate-intensive" and "consumer-intensive" work, covering the areas of people with mental health, substance abuse, or other problems with entitlements, job training, and other career services. On the macro level, the national economy has to change to reduce the homeless-making process and pressures toward homelessness. Each sector, such as housing, employment, health, education, and the family, all have to support low-income families.

Scenarios of Change in Urban Environments, Arthur B. Shostak, Futures Research Quarterly, 11:1, Spring 1995, 5-19. Three urban scenarios to the 21st century.

According to the author, our choices for the future, especially regarding public policy, is influenced by the optimistic view, the pessimist view, and the possible view. These three perspectives are applied to alternative futures of four urban cities in the U.S. Scenario 1.) Hard Edge City: The most deserted case. There is a very stark gap between the rich and the poor. Colored and poor people live in urban areas with a lot of crime; there is a huge lack of public health and other services. Environmental degradation abounds. Scenario 2.) Edge City: development of suburban cities. However, there are problems, such as a very strict regulation of city planning (e.g. uniformity), and no harmonization of ecosystems. Scenario 3.) Soft-Edge City: a most desirable case. Assuming a successful economy and a high-tech world, human well being is realized and harmonized within the ecosystem. There is more free time, no discrimination of any kind, more cooperation, and more voluntary public services. Scenario 4.) No-Edge City: this case can be a transitional case to the other three. This regional "hot spot" is characterized by full cooperation among city, county, research university, and business sector, with entrepreneurial spirit and thus by attractive, cosmopolitan, and high standard of living.

Welfare Versus Work. A report by David Dawson, Policy Analyst, Alabama Arise, 1994. Four welfare scenarios: short-term, but illustrates a principle that applies to all ages, including the 21st century.

A set of short-term but interesting scenarios used to support the idea that, when looking at the facts, welfare benefits do not necessarily discourage people from working. Work is more financially advantageous than welfare. "The benefits one receives on welfare cannot compare to the benefits one receives working even a minimum wage job." Scenario1.) The Typical Family on Welfare: in this analysis, the person defined as the "typical" AFDC recipient is a woman with two young children living with a family member. In this study it is assumed that the mother makes an informed choice between the combined benefits of welfare and the combined benefits of a minimum wage job. Scenario 2.) The Worker Finds a Full-Time Job at Minimum Wage: here, a woman is able to find a full-time job at minimum wage and leave AFDC, for it is shown that her combined cash and benefit income would increase dramatically. Scenario 3.) Second Year on the Job: assuming that this woman continues a second year at this job at minimum wage with no benefits, her combined benefits do change somewhat. She would continue earning $8,840 per year, her Food Stamps would continue at the same level, her WIC would remain at the same level, and her taxes, expenses, and EITC would remain the same. However, her out-of-pocket expenses for her personal health care and child care would increase. Scenario 4.) First Year at the Typical Job After Welfare: assuming that, instead of earning $8,840 per year working 40 hours per week at $4.25, the woman works at the wages and hours that the average post-AFDC recipient works (29 hours per week at $5.05). Again in this scenario, her income is higher than it would be if on AFDC.

Eight Scenarios for Work in the Future, Martin Morf, Futurist Magazine, June 1983. Eight scenarios of work to the 21st century.

Changes in society and technology could bring a broad variety of possible futures to the working world. Key trends common to all scenarios are: robotics, automation, rate of growth of technology, the amount of work generated by the economy, and the degree to which work is rewarded. Scenario 1.) Extreme Taylorism: increased productivity makes most work superfluous and brings the 10 hour workweek within reach. Everyone serves on the economic front a few hours each day and everyone is entitled to a living wage. Workers are liberated by machines, computers, and robots, and can work less and live more. Scenario 2.) Feudal Unions: a scenario of strong unions with even greater power causing the worsening of some problems like runaway wages; seniority rather than skill or merit determines who will have the privilege to work. Scenario 3.) Underground Work: the feudal union scenario is thus quite compatible with an "underground work" scenario, in which ever-greater segments of the work force cooperate outside of the formal economy. Scenario 4.) Work Coupons: shared characteristics of the feudal union and underground work scenarios is an uneven distribution of the scarce, but essential and possibly interesting, commodity called a job. Both are depressing scenarios, with a large section of the population left to its own devices, and both go against the grain of American egalitarianism. Scenario 5.) Gods and Clods: if the technology that society develops is not accessible to the average person, there could arise a society made up of an extremely busy elite of professionals and a useless majority unable to manipulate the words and mathematical symbols of the information society. Scenario 6.) Shadow Work: in this scenario, there is no need for formal make-work projects. Shadow work is distributed unfairly by the rich and powerful, who need odds-and-ends done; Scenario 7.) The Electronic Cottage: in this future, technology and computers are pervasive and accessible to all. The high economic growth rate generates challenging and profitable work, and the work is distributed fairly. Electronic networking replaces the need for much informal and shadow work. Working in the electronic cottage could bridge the gap between the world of work and the culture in which we live; Scenario 8.) Subsistence work: this scenario demands a reversal of the path toward ever-greater consumption, material wealth, and physical comfort, back to earlier methods of production that are more labor intensive and more clearly linked to the important and meaningful business of subsistence.

Looking Back to School, James A. Mecklenburger, Phi Delta Kappan, 67:2, Oct. 1985, 119-122. School in 21st century.

A scenario of the past 20 years looking back from 2005, written by the president of the Productive Schools Association of North America in 1994-97. Education in 2005 included the following changes: learning goals replace curricula; influx of portable computers; new patterns of school organization; "expert systems" for use in teaching.

Three Scenarios for the Future of Teaching, Arthur E. Wise, Phi Delta Kappan, 67:9, May 198, 649-652. Three scenarios of the future of teaching to 21st century.

A fascinating and unique look at the future of teaching. Scenario 1.) Business-as-Usual: "yesterday's practices and today's policies remain in effect. The supply of teachers runs low while demand increases, and alternative certification is instituted. But this does not attract well-qualified candidates, and education-minded parents respond by pulling their children out of public schools." Scenario 2.) The Two-Tiered Scenario: "the structure of the educational system parallels that of the US Army during the era of the draft, with a permanent cadre of senior teachers and administrators who supervise ever-changing contingents of temporary teachers (many of the current proposals for career ladders expect that a permanent cadre will rise through the ranks to assume these duties.)" Scenario 3.) The Professional Scenario: "the states cooperate with education organizations and others to reform the training, induction, and certification of teachers. High and carefully enforced standards restrict the supply of professionals, and working conditions appropriate to a professional conception of teaching evolve. This scenario holds the greatest promise for producing professional teaching in the public schools. Realizing it will depend on the willingness of policymakers to improve teacher salaries and working conditions, and will enforce entry standards in the face of unstaffed classrooms."

2020 Visions: Health Care Information Standards and Technologies. Edited by: Clement Bezold, Jerome A. Halperin, and Jacqueline L. Eng. Three scenarios on health care technologies to 2020.

This report is based on a September 1992 Conference sponsored by the United States Pharmacopoeia Convention, Inc. on the future of health care information standards and technologies. Scenario 1.) High Technology/Continued Growth: technological progress, good management, and a resilient global ecosystem combine to allow economic growth. Health care therapeutics advance dramatically. Health care emphasizes the prediction and management of illness. Scenario 2) Hard Times/Focused Innovation: recurring economic hard times slow growth, but lead to Canadian-like health care system with a frugal universal basic benefit that utilizes nonphysician health care providers and encourages home care/self-care, aided by advanced information systems. Scenario 3.) Global Business: because multinational companies are growing, most national economies are also growing. The need for effective global operations leads to horizontal standards for most manufactured items, with the International Standards Organization taking the principle role. Scenario 4.) The New Social Contract: as the social contract becomes more clear and more accepted, and as societies become more diverse, dramatic changes take place in business, health, and health care. Diagnosis and treatments in health care are increasingly varied.
 

White Collars Turn Blue, Paul Krugman New York Times Magazine Sept. 29, 1996 . An economic transformation scenario from 1996 - 2000.

A scenario in which society looks back from the first part of the 21st Century and finds that many popular assumptions about the information age were wrong. For instance, people believed that the major forces driving economic change would be the continuing advance of digital technology and the spread of economic development throughout the world. The future would bring an 'information economy,' mainly producing intangibles. This assumption was wrong. In looking back, it was realized that five major transformations were missed. 1.) Souring Resource Prices: it was assumed that the prices of commodities would always be low, but price surges inevitably occurred. 2.) The Environment as Property: appreciating the real price of environmental use and consumption wasn't fully realized until 2043. 3.) The Rebirth of the Big City: during the second half of the 21st century, the big city seemed to be in decline and replaced by sprawling suburbia. The reality was that the city flourished and the center of true "multimedia" was New York City. 4.) The Devaluation of Higher Education: in the 1990s everyone believed that education was the key to economic success. But many of the jobs that once required a higher education were eliminated or exported. In the early part of the 21st Century, jobs that required only 6 months of vocational training paid nearly as much, if not more, than jobs that require a masters degree or Phd. 5.) The Celebrity Economy: since the information economy made it easier for creative works to be distributed with very little pay for royalties, the only way to make money in this future, is to endorse a product by promoting sales of something else. Instead of an information economy, it became a "celebrity economy."

The Future of Intellectual Property. Copyright TaskForce, University of Michigan, 1995. Internet: http://www.taskforce. File:///B!/IP2.HTM. Four scenarios on the future of intellectual property to the 21st century.

This study resulted in four scenarios for improving the management of copyrights at research universities. Scenario 1.) Enhancing Current Practices: this scenario envisions individual university members mounting strong programs for campus information, discussion, involvement and support through model languages, contracts, and licenses, copyright advice, information about academic publishing and publishers. Scenario 2.) Faculty Ownership of Copyrights: faculty authors allow publication or other forms of access to each of their works on a case-by-case basis or by a statement of general principle. At a minimum, authors continue to grant to publishers the right to reproduce and distribute the work in a specific publication. Authors are responsible, either directly or through a central agency they or the university might create, for registering the copyright and granting permission to use their work. Scenario 3.) Joint Faculty/University Ownership of Copyrights: envisions shared ownership between the faculty member and his or her university. The scenario relates in general to non-royalty producing works or works that are unlikely to produce royalties. The universi