The following scenario bibliography is categorized by the domains of the Millennium Project, plus an additional category titled, "Regions and Nations."

I. International Economics and Wealth

II. Environmental Change and Biodiversity

III. Technological Capacity

IV. Demographics and Human Resources

V. Governance and Conflict

VI. Regions and Nations

VII. Integration of these five or Whole Future

This bibliography is intended to give the reader a sense of the breadth and scope of scenarios that a literature search, Internet search, and personal interviews revealed. This bibliography is not, by all means, comprehensive; it is meant to give the reader a "taste" of plausible stories of the future through short summaries of what the scenarios are about, prefaced by reference information so the reader can locate the original material.

As mentioned in Section 6 of our book State of the Future: Implications for Action Today, the Millennium Project is collaborating with a research panel of macro-historians worldwide to identify the "lessons of history." This actually will be useful to applied futures research, as the "lessons of history," once rated and put through the rigor of several rounds with the panel, can provide a supplement, or "checklist" for structuring scenarios. We ask the reader when contemplating the various futures listed in this bibliography, to think about the lessons of history and, perhaps, share a lesson or two that comes to mind. We'd like to hear from you. We would also like to add macro-historians to our panel, and if you, the reader, know of a macro-historian who can enrich our study, please let us know.

The Millennium Project is also collecting normative scenarios this year. Normative scenarios are desirable futures written from the perspective of the author. Since most of the scenarios listed in this bibliography are sets of exploratory scenarios that fall within Millennium Project domains, we hope to add a substantial amount of normative scenarios as a supplement to this collection. Our purpose is to gather enough normative scenario material from the various works and literature to address some of the methodological questions outlined by Ted Gordon in Section 3, The Scenarios. Normative scenarios can tie into professional futures research, most notably through the linkages of scenarios-to-strategy. How this fits exactly, is our goal to more thoroughly understand. If the reader comes across normative scenarios , or had personally written a normative scenario or two, we are most interested in being informed so we can build our collection.

For any information you may want to share on the lessons

of history, macro-historians, or normative scenarios, please contact:

Susan Jette, jette@well.com or (202) 686-5179

American Council for the United Nations University

I. International Economics and Wealth

The New Capitalism. William E. Halal. John Wiley & Son. July 1986/486p. Three scenarios of U.S. capitalism to 2000.

The world is recognizing and affirming the ideals of democracy and free enterprise because they offer the best means for adapting. The best combination is a balance of the two, exemplified in Democratic Free Enterprise described by the author. Key elements of the new capitalism include: smart growth - combining profitable business with public service; market networks - fluid organizational environments; participative leadership - profit and worker ownership; multiple goals - profit no longer the central principle; and strategic management - issues management at the heart of strategic change. Professor Halal concludes with three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Corporate America: the Reagen influence to get America back into Laissez faire economics was maintained through the 1990s. By 2000, big companies and multinationals literally reigned. "Fierce competition prevailed for awhile to create a flurry of efficient innovations, but, as the economic transition matured, mergers and acquisitions consolidated most industries into a few large corporations." Big corporations manage schools and universities because education has become increasingly critical for running a complex technological society. Scenario 2.) Regulated America: most aspects of life is regulated by government as America returns to an "America that Cares." This welfare state is a more secure and fairly well-administered society, but the promised gains remained illusive. Reforms were made, but only by replacing business mega-corporations with federal bureaucracies. Scenario 3.) Democratic Free Enterprise America: a major populist movement targets big business, which becomes a major political issue. The role of business is then redefined by a coalition of centrist politicians and business executives. The movement leads to various changes that redefine much of the economic system, such as agreements to automate smokestack industries while providing worker- training on new technologies.

A Visit to Belindia. Frederick Pohl. Chapter from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House, St. Paul, Minnesota. A Global economy scenario to the year 2044.

One of a collection of scenarios from various authors looking to the year 2044. Key trends in A Visit to Belindia include the widening of the have-have not gap, slow growth in the advanced industrial nations and irresponsible government spending. This pessimistic scenario depicts the widening of the have have-not gap worldwide, and the term 'Belindia' popularly describes this condition: a small number of well-to-do classes having the same standard of living as in Belgium while the rest of the world lived at a standard similar to India's in the mid-nineties of the 20th century. Belgium plus India = Belindia ."Belindia is really the whole world now." The potential of technologies to contribute to economic growth and a higher standard of living stagnated dramatically due to inappropriate government spending on pork barrel projects when there should have been spending on research and development. With such a widening of the have have-not gap at the beginning of the 21st Century, narcotics became the fastest growing industry in the world. With virtually no exploitation of potential technologies to solve environmental problems, by 2044 the ozone layer was almost gone, and throughout the world, a few million lived under protective domes while billions lived unprotected, and, "They didn't live very well at all."

The Capitalist World-Economy: Middle Run Prospects. Immanual Wallerstein, Alternatives: Social Transformation and Humane Governance 14:3, July 1989, 279-288. Three scenarios of the world economy to 2050.

Wallerstein traces the capitalist-world economy and, from the perspective of 1989, the world was in the middle of a period of global economic stagflation that could have meant the decline of US power while Japan and Western Europe were improving their positions. Four possible vectors of historical occurrences for the 2000-2050 middle-run period are described, then, "if all four vectors are correctly estimated, three scenarios are possible": Scenario 1.) A story of the struggle for hegemony, pitting Japan/US/China against Western Europe/USSR (or parts of the former USSR), resulting in a world war by 2050. Scenario 2.) Faced with the exhaustion of the present world-system and the fear of nuclear disaster, this is a story about a world system that consciously reorganizes itself into something else. The world recreates a new structure of inegalitarian privilege. Scenario 3.) A story of the anarchic crumbling away of the world system, generating massive experimentation and massive insecurity, until chaos creates a truly new world order that is relatively egalitarian and democratic.

Business NOT as Usual: Rethinking our Individual, Corporate, and Industrial Strategies for Global Competition. Ian I. Mitroff, San Francisco: Josey-Bass Publishers, April 1987/194p. Four scenarios of U.S. development into the 21st century.

The author discusses business strategy in a changing world. The book concludes with four scenarios of the future of U.S. corporate and indutrial development. Scenario 1.) Continually increasing prosperity without substantial change or dislocation. This most optimistic scenario assumes that past methods of operation are sound and will lead to increasing prosperity in the foreseeable future. There is no need to change the thinking about complex problems or restructure organizations and industries. Scenario 2.) Continued prosperity with substantial early adjustment. This is also an optimistic scenario but in a very different way. It's basic premise is a highly adaptive America, where clear signals of the decline of industry are perceived early enough, so that shifts into new patterns are made (for example, less bureaucratic, smaller, more autonomous companies that can compete more effectively). Scenario 3.) Late and slow recovery after substantial pain. This scenario is optimistic but also in a different way. It predicts that substantial pain will occur before the United States finally makes the changes necessary to compete in a world economy. That is, many more industries will reach "near death" before the wall of resistance that has been built on past successes is broken down, and they realize that radical restructure is critical to survival, let alone prosperity. Scenario 4.) Catastrophic decline after severe pain. Most pessimistic. Maintains that by the time the pain has become so great that change is clearly needed, it will be too late. Foreign products and competitors will have made such a dent in US domestic markets, not to mention world markets, that the chance of disengaging their stronghold will be extremely difficult.

U.S. Financial Services in the Global Economy: International Competitiveness and Safety and Soundness, James D. Robinson III, Vital Speeches of the Day, 56:6, 1 Jan 1990, 176-180. Three scenarios of financial services to 2000.

In a speech given by James D. Robinson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of American Express Company on the future of the U.S. financial industry, it was concluded that there were three plausible scenarios. Key trends driving the scenarios are: wealth becoming more widely distributed around the world resulting in a truly global economy; the increasing globalization of financial markets; and increasingly, financial markets becoming a guide to economic policy. Scenario 1.) Creeping Incrementalism: a continuation of the piecemeal, loophole-driven erosion of regulations and the legislative stalemate that had characterized U.S. financial system reform. This is an "extension of the status quo" scenario. Scenario 2.) Back to the Bunkers: a world of protectionism on all levels . For example, the re-regulation in the U.S. into distinct financial services industries, and internationally, the creation of trade blocs, which is a very fragile kind of security, vulnerable to market forces finding new ways around artificial barriers. Scenario 3.) A Positive Future: "open markets that land consumer choice, in which all types of financial institutions can compete with adequate rules of consumer protection, fair play, safety and soundness."

In the Shadow of the Rising Sun: The Political Roots of American Economic Decline. William S. Dietrich, University Park PA: Penn State Press Oct. 1991/343p. A global economy scenario to 2015.

From the perspective of 1991, the author considers the various angles of a key trend: Japan's growing technological and economic mastery. From a U.S. point of view, Dietrich writes a hair-raising scenario called "Pax Nippocina", characterized by American decline and Japanese world leadership. Japan dominates every leading-edge industry, and becomes the world's financial center. Its GNP is twice that of the US, and GNP per capita is four times higher. The Japanese own 40% of US manufacturing assets, as the US (and the EC) is relegated to a third-tier nation, relying on East Asian high-tech products. Although Japan has experienced problems in their economy, it has the potential to rise again. When looking beyond the 1990s and to the year 2015 or 2025, "Pax Nippocina" is considered a plausible future.

1990 Ten Year Forecast. Institute for the Future, Corporate Associates Program, Menlo Park CA: IFTF Feb 1990/237p. Three scenarios of the business environment to 2000, 2030, 2050.

" A comprehensive view of change in the business environment, divided into three sections: a core forecast of key driving forces in the 1990s, a center section glimpsing the first 50 years of the 21st Century in three scenarios (2010, 2030, 2050), and a discussion of four major issue clusters (consumers/customers, employees/managers, investors, and government)." Future Survey Annual 1990 This "Ten Year Forecast" suggests that the rising tide of social insecurity among middle-aging baby boomers leads to concern about their economic situation, health benefits, and debt burden. For 2010, the Institute for the Future forecasted the enormous growth of middle-class consumers in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe: "By 2010 these areas will have a third of the world's middle-class consumers, up from 18 percent today." According to the staff at IFTF, the "Ten Year Forecast" is proprietary, but there are many excellent forecasts, papers, and reports that can be ordered through the Institute's homepage at: www.iftf.org.

Wild Cards: Preparing for "The Big One," John D. Rockfellow, The Futurist, 28:1, Jan-Feb 1994, 14-19. Three Wild Card scenarios to the year 2000.

Often times a set of scenarios will include a wildcard scenario of an event having a low probability of occurrence, but a very high impact if it does occur. In this article, the author describes three wildcard events from a collaborative report titled, Wild Cards: A Multinational Perspective. Scenario 1.) Hong Kong Rules China: "In 1997, Great Britain has relinquished control of Hong Kong, but the joke is on China. Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the five special economic zones of mainland China have become the supernovas of the late twentieth century. They have gobbled up the Chinese communist dinosaur and blasted away the possibility of another Tiananmen Square massacre." By 2000, Hong Kong serves as the main conduit for Chinese exports. Mainland China's average annual growth rate has stayed constant due to a lack of infrastructure, while Hong Kong's exports have increased substantially. Scenario 2.) Europe Goes Regional: by the year 2000, Europe will dismantle the nation-state in favor of strong regional representation in the European Community. The community is still seen as necessary to protect economic and security interests, but the nation-state as an intermediate step in the hierarchy of decision making has been bypassed. Scenario 3.) The No Carbon Economy: scientists establish that the world's climate is getting warmer due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The world experiences more droughts, cyclones, heat waves, etc. Public awareness of the situation grows, bringing with it a greater understanding of the limitations of development based upon abundant and cheap energy.

The Age of Diminished Expectations: U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s. Paul Krugman, Cambridge MA: MIT Press, Sept 1990/204p. Three scenarios of the US economy to 2000.

Key trends in the US economy are described: productivity growth, income distribution, unemployment, the trade deficit, inflation, the budget deficit, trade with Japan, finance, debt in the developing countries. From the perspective of 1990, the author concludes with three scenarios of the U.S. economy. Scenario 1.) Happy Ending: US growth of productivity at 3% a year leads to a general rise in living standards and defuses the problems of trade and budget deficits. Scenario 2) Hard Landing: foreign investors loose confidence in the US, and the immediate impact is the fall in the dollar, or the reverse. "If you want to envision a real hard landing, simply imagine that foreigners face a perceived risk that is not alleviated by a lower dollar, such as fears of expropriation. Suppose that the resulting dollar crash follows a period of dollar stability, so there is no cushion to brake the rise in import prices, and we have the bad luck to stumble onto a third oil crisis just as the dollar plunges. Suppose that the US economy is already having an inflation problem when the crisis hits. What you get is a recipe for a truly disastrous hard landing." This hard landing scenario can be avoided with good policy. Scenario 3.) Drift: no radical developments or changes. In the 1990s there will be a growing and ever more miserable underclass, while the middle class probably does better. By 2000 unemployment probably will drift down to 4-5%, inflation will creep up to 7%, net foreign claims in the US will be about 20% of GNP, foreign firms will account for 25% of US manufacturing and 45% of banking, an increasingly unified Europe will have a larger GNP than the US; Japan's GNP will be 80% or more of the US level, and a world economy that is likely to be less unified due to trading blocs will slow the growth of world trade. This scenario is far short of what used to be regarded as success, but it "now looks perfectly acceptable, and might be regarded as a success."

Long-Term Scenarios of the World Economy to 2015. By Andre de Jong and Gerrit Zalm (Central Planning Bureau, The Netherlands). Conference on Long-Term Prospects for the World Economy. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Paris OECD, Aug 1992/193p. Four scenarios on the global economy to 2015.

According to the Central Planning Bureau, The Netherlands, many policy makers in government and business base decisions on their perceptions of the future. Three perceptions of the future - equilibrium, coordination, and free market - were discussed at this conference, and were related to various regional developments in economics, natural resources and the environment, along with the interactions among the driving forces to create four alternative scenarios supporting a long-term study of the Dutch economy, with a focus on the world economy. Scenario 1.) Balanced Growth: emphasis on economic equilibrium and innovation. This is the most optimistic scenario. An annual growth rate of the world economy is more than 3.5%, which is ecologically sustainable and includes all the major regions of the world. Scenario 2.) Global Crisis: tensions between trading blocs (Japan-led bloc is strongest) create a vicious circle of slowing economic growth. This is a "lack of balance" scenario featuring global tension and conflict, slow growth and depression. It examines the damages of ignorance and the challenges of a delayed response to regional and global problems. Drought leads to a worldwide crisis in food supply and global economic recession. How the world may end up in widespread distress with only a possible high cost solution, is examined. Scenario 3. ) Global Shift: technology is the driving force behind a free market economy. A shift in economic activities takes place from the Atlantic to Pacific basin. Scenario 4.) European Renaissance: trade blocs slow growth of free market economy. Europe proves to be the best at integrating and expanding its bloc and flourishes. The two most powerful economic blocs in the world are: Western Europe and North America. Although they are quite different, both blocks are vulnerable, and their economic performance will have a huge influence on other regions, especially their neighbors.

Long-Term Prospects for the World Economy. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Paris : OECD, Aug 1992/193p. Nine scenarios of the world economy to the year 2000 and beyond.

A "Forum for the Future" conference hosted by the OECD in Paris, June 1991. This conference brought together key economists and thinkers from around the world, examining the forces that are likely to drive the evolution of the global economy and its major regions to the year 2000 and beyond. In addition to the summary by Michel Andrieu, Wolfgang Michalski, and Barrie Stevens, the conference provided seven additional papers that included scenarios. Long-Term Prospects for the US Economy, by Maurice Ernst and Jimmy W. Wheeler (Hudson Institute) provided three scenarios of the US economy to the year 2000. US trends identified included: defense and discretionary spending; entitlements such as social security and Medicare; special benefits and subsidies, and general revenues. Scenario 1.) Central Surprise Free Scenario: GNP Growth ranges between 2.3-2.7% through the 1990's and to the year 2000. No surprises here; it is a "business as usual" scenario. Scenario 2.) Virtuous Circle Scenario: overall luck was very good; the combination of good management, especially in the industrial sector, and policy yields 3.2% growth. 3.) Slow Growth Scenario: only 1.8% growth. Confidence becomes lost in the "American Dream" and the US begins to loose ground in terms of competing in the global economy. North American Economic Integration, by Wendy Dobson (U of Toronto) provided three scenarios: 1.) Base Case; 2.) Freer Trade (resulting from NAFTA - accelerating economic growth in all three countries); and 3.) Further Evolution ( common market or economic union in the longer term). European Economic Integration, by Emilio Fontela (U of Madrid) provided three scenarios: 1.) The Conventional Wisdom Scenario; 2.) The Scenario of Deepening; and 3.) Scenario of Widening.
 
 The Great Boom Ahead: Your Comprehensive Guide to Personal and Business Profit in the New Era of Prosperity. Harry S. Dent Jr. Hyperion Publishers Jan. 1993/273p. A global economy scenario to 2025.

A Global Boom Scenario. A new world economic order of three trading blocs (North America, Europe, and the Far East), is led by a booming U.S. economy. America's baby boomers reach peak productive years as the U.S. gains economic dominance and leads the move to customization economies. U.S. information infrastructure and workforce become the best in the world. Mexico rides U.S. coattails to become the Third World country with the strongest growth. Warns that the world needs to prepare for the "Mother of all Depressions" from 2010 - 2025, which could bring the curtain down.

21st Century Capitalism. Robert Heilbroner . W. W. Norton & Co, N.Y. Sept 1993/175p. Five scenarios of capitalism to the 21st century.

In contrast to stagnant command and control societies, capitalism presents the impetus, challenges, and generates tremendous change in a society. It "thus carries us along into futures that are full of unpredictability, and yet formed and shaped in ways that are far from being utterly unforeseeable." The author presents the economic theories of Smith, Marx, Keynes, Schumpeter, and Heilbroner as scenarios for the future of capitalism into the 21st century. Scenario 1.) Adam Smith: a world of economic growth, resource restraints, economic decline from growing population and shrinking resources. Scenario 2.) Karl Marx: a world of growth with continual periods of economic crisis and restructuring, with labor ultimately gaining control of the economy. Scenario 3.) John M. Keynes: a world of market driven societies creating lasting underemployment and the need for social investment. Scenario 4.) Joseph Schumpeter: capitalism will continue to grow through creative destruction, but will ultimately decline from moral decay. Scenario 5.) Robert Heilbroner: capitalism can grow with the right social investment. Barriers to social investment include the deficit, American tax phobia, and coping with inflationary pressures.

The Post-Nationalist Map: A Cartography of Cultures and Economies (Special Issue). New Perspectives Quarterly 12: 1, Winter 1994-95/64p. Single copy from the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions. Two future maps to the 21st century.

This special issue is devoted to showing that the world in the 19th century was once divided by geo-political relations and has evolved in the 20th century into a new cartography of cultures and economies, and is destined to evolve further into the 21st century. Views included in this issue were: Nathan Gardels (editor, NPQ), Francis Fukuyama (RAND Corp. - Washington), Chai-Anan Samudavanija (Bangkok), Kenichi Ohmae, Jacque Delors, Robert Reich, Riccardo Petrella, Paul Kennedy, Paul Krugman, James Goldsmith, Richard Rosecrance, Hans Magnus Enzensberger, and Riccardo Petrella (EU/FAST).

Riccardo Petrella sketches two future maps of the world system, so vivid that they describe two scenarios. The first map is a world dominated by a hierarchy of 30 city-regions (the CR-30 replacing the G-7), linked more to each other through telecommunications than by geography; the second map is a global civil society that balances the business world with a global social contract that gives equity to all through a redistribution of wealth.

The Twenty-First Century Organization: Analyzing Current Trends-Imagining the Future. Guy Benveniste, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers, Feb 1994/310p. Two scenarios of the organization to the 21st century.

The author outlines six trends driving two scenarios of the future of the organization. These trends include: worldwide competition for ideas, highly educated work force, feminization of organizational culture, sophisticated communications, rapid change, and a shift from hierarchy to more egalitarian organizations. Scenario 1.) New System: in this world, most, if not all people are highly educated and are members of professional organizations that represent their occupation. Individuals are members of Professional Councils, Professional Courts, and Professional Boards. 2.) The Firm: in this world, American organizations engage in global business. These organizations are operated on the senior staff professional model, with two hierarchies of workers: senior professional workers with considerable discretion and other professional workers in fairly controlled situations. Credit goes to those who work diligently. Rewards are based on outcome measures. These large enterprises run schools, hospitals, hotels, and restaurants.

The Haves Have Less, by Gaia Young, and channeled to Nichola Lemann. The New York Times Magazine Sept 29, 1996. A labor scenario to 2096.

This scenario plausibly describes the evolution of work into the 21st century. Key trends include the striving for education, high unemployment, and the widening of the have have-not gap. The world of work becomes a "meritocracy", in which people rise to power and position because of their education-based ability (rather than birth as in an aristocracy). Meritocracy is especially seen in the US. However, populist reaction against the meritocratic elite causes such professions as law and medicine to decline in status, while a quarter of the work force is made up of domestic servants.
 

II. ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY

The Climatic Effects of Nuclear War, Richard P. Turco, Owen B. Toon, Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan, Scientific American 251:2, August 1984, 33-43. Global scenario of a nuclear winter.

The long-term climatic effects of nuclear war are much more severe than had been supposed. The scenario of a nuclear winter is a world in which vast regions are subjected to prolonged darkness, abnormally low temperatures, violent windstorms, toxic smog, and persistent radioactive fallout. Under such circumstances, the extinction of many species, including humans, is possible.

Our Common Future. Faye Dunchin and Glenn-Marie Lange. Oxford University Press, 1994.

The Our Common Future scenarios and alternative scenarios were designed in relation to the Brundtland Report in 1987. These scenarios examine likely future changes in emissions of carbon dioxides and oxides of sulfer and oxides of nitrogen, thus focusing on the most energy-intensive sectors. In the latter part of the book, case studies were used to develop the scenarios. They rely mostly on technological changes in lowering pollution or climate change. Along with a global scenario, the book contains regional scenarios. In all scenarios, it is assumed that the levels of economic activity (as measured in GNP) will increase by 2.8% a year worldwide, that the relative price of petroleum will gradually rise above its level of the 1980s to $44 per barrel and by 2020, the population will increase from 5.l3 million in 1990 to 8.1 million in 2020, with 42.7% in 1990 to 57.5% in 2020 of urban population worldwide. Case studies cover the likely future changes in the use of energy in households, transportation, electricity generation, and industrial production, along with pollution control options.

Neptune's Revenge: The Ocean of Tomorrow. Anne W. Simon (NYC). NY: Franklin Watts, Oct. 1984/222p. Environmental scenario in the 21st century.

The author describes mankind's various uses of the ocean and how these uses have turned into abuse. A continuation of these trends would drastically affect the ocean of tomorrow. Some abuses cited by the author include overfishing and the dumping of sewage, radioactive waste, and toxic chemicals. A pessimistic scenario "Neptunes Revenge," describes a world in which the oceans have suffered irreversible damage in the 21st century, and are no longer able to support mankind. This is a scenario of survival of life on earth.
 

Global Climate Change: Linking Energy, Environment, Economy, and Equity. Edited by James C. White, NY: Plenum Press, 1992/242p. Energy scenarios to the 21st century.

Proceedings of the 8th annual conference of the Center for Environmental Information (Rochester NY), held December 1991 in Washington. This conference examined trends affecting climate change such as increasing greenhouse gases; warming generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes; and how differences in seasons can create trouble for urban water supplies. Conference papers include scenarios of multiple benefit environmental policies, local and regional policies, the role of markets in energy/environmental policy, and sectoral perspectives (government, electric utilities, auto industry, industry); other conference papers included scenarios of future energy consumption.

Principles for Electric Power Policy. Technology Futures, Inc. and Scientific Foresight Inc., Greenwood Press/Quorum Books, Oct 1984/448p. Six scenarios of electric power to the year 2014.

A National Science Foundation sponsored technology assessment on the future of electric power conducted within the context of six alternative sets of scenarios of the 30 year future of the U.S. Trends and assumptions driving the scenarios are: growing importance of electrical power; projections for long-term size and distribution of electrical power demand is increasingly uncertain; the type of practical power generation sources will increase dramatically; roles, structures, and procedures for electrical utilities will change significantly; electric power policy will find it increasingly difficult to find a balance between efficiency, equity, and risk. Scenario 1.) The Average Future: total energy demands and electrical power demands in particular will continue to grow. There will be a limited but increased role for nuclear power and a dominant role for coal-based generation. Scenario 2.) Nuclear Resurgence: high energy demand and increased acceptance of nuclear power, coupled with disenchantment with coal-based generation results in a resurgence of nuclear power generation. Scenario 3.) Mega-Plant: high demand, coupled with resistance to both nuclear and coal-based generation results in unconventional, high-capacity sources of electricity, such as solar power satellites. Scenario 4.) Small Coal Plants: high energy demand and moderate increase in oil prices slows the trend towards electrification. As a result, relatively small coal-based generators are preferred. Scenario 5.) Post-Industrial Economy: an economy dominated by services and high-technology manufacturing results in low demand for energy generally but a high demand for electricity. This demand is met by distributed electric power technologies such as solar cells. Scenario 6.) Economic Malaise: economic malaise results in low demand for both electricity and energy in general. Conventional coal-based generators supply the electric power that is needed.
 

Vision 2020: Reordering Chaos for Global Survival. Ervin Laszlo, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, March 1994/133p. World environmental scenario to 21st century.

This book provides an analysis of environmental trends. Laszlo projects that human population will soon be at the edge of the planet's carrying capacity, masses of people will be poverty stricken, and food production will decline. A normative scenario, "Vision 2020" shows a world in which the environment is supportive of humanity. The author recommends that five objectives be accomplished: restraining the power of the nation-state; restraining the power of politicians by promoting direct democracy; concords of cooperation in defense environmental protection; and development. The "Vision 2020" scenario is a strategy to launch humanity on the path toward a global "holarchy" where human beings co-evolve with their societies. This calls for maintaining mastery over the complex and interdependent world we have created.

A 21st Century World Gas Scenario, Ove Sviden Futures, 18:5, Oct. 1986, 687-691. Three gas scenarios to 2010, 2040, and 2070.

This article represents a long range outlook on natural gas as a primary energy source and gas as an energy product. Scenario 1.) Scenario Scene 2010: "world population is 7 billion. Natural gas now represents 25% of world TPE. The gas supply pipelines span the continents and cross deep waters. Offshore exploration of natural gas takes place around most continents. The world is again experiencing flourishing growth. Demand for energy is growing by 2% per year. The search for petroleum resulted in a bigger growth for the natural gas reserves than for the oil reserves, but oil is still the dominant energy form with its 31% of world TPE." Scenario 2.) Scenario Scene 2040: " World population has increased to 9 billion. World energy demand has more than doubled since 1985. Natural gas is now the major fossil fuel used. The volume consumed is four times larger than in 1985. Its share of world TPE is 34%. Worldwide gas supply and distribution networks span the continents. Natural gas is recovered from subsea installations . Gas is considered to be the only environmentally acceptable form of carbon to be burned." Scenario 3.) Scenario Scene 2100: " World population has stabilized now at 12 billion. World energy demand is six times the amount consumed in 1985. This represented an average energy growth rate of 1.57% /year during the last 15 years. Over 40% of the energy is reserved for transportation usage. This means that 2.5 times the world total energy consumption in 1985 is now used in mobile power packs. The environmental specification for combustion is very strict indeed. The only sufficiently clean fuel is gas, i.e. hydrogen."

A Matter of Degrees: The Potential for Controlling the Greenhouse Effect. Irving M. Mintzer, Report #5. Washington: World Resources Institute, April 1987/60p. Four scenarios of greenhouse warming to 2030.

Various models are integrated into the Model of Warming Commitment, a major model that was used to project future emissions of the six gases that contribute most to global warming. From the perspective of 1987, four scenarios are utilized to reflect different levels of effort toward the slowing of greenhouse warming. Scenario 1.) Base Case: there is no change in industry practices, it is a business as usual world, with no policies to slow down Co2 emissions and minimal environmental costs are included in the price of energy. Scenario 2.) High Emissions: growing population in the industrialized nations and developing nations accelerate the use of technology and thus the demand for energy, but no policies are set in place to improve Co2 emissions or improve end-use efficiency. Scenario 3.) Modest Policies: in this scenario, there is a lot of successful research and development in the area of solar energy, which gives people a strong realization about the importance of the environment; substantial environmental costs are imposed on energy prices to encourage fuel switching. Scenario 4.) Slow Build-Up: strong emphasis on energy efficiency, major global commitment to reforestation, high environmental costs imposed on energy prices. Even in the bast case scenario of a slow build-up of greenhouse gases, there is still a likelihood of an increase in 2 or 3 degrees C by 2030, resulting in major climate change. In the other scenarios, temperature change could be two to three times as great.

Superquake! Why Earthquakes Occur and When the Big One Will Hit Southern California. David Ritchie (Baltimore MD). NY: Crown, Feb. 1988/185p. An "Earthquake Day" scenario to 21st century.

At 7:30 on a summer morning in the not-too-distant future the Los Angeles area is hit by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake lasting 75 seconds. This is the "Big One," but it occurs not along the San Andreas Fault, but along the relatively minor Newport-Inglewood Fault. The results, however, are anything but minor. Tens of thousands are killed, a million injured. The transportation links that tie the Los Angeles area to the rest of the United States are virtually severed. Fires rage and toxic chemicals spill. Ultimately the costs are in the trillions of dollars, driving the U.S. economy into a tailspin. In addition to this scenario, the history of earthquakes in California and discussions of other quake-prone areas of the United States are discussed in this book. Worthwhile to compare the details of this scenario with the 1994 Los Angeles quake.

Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century? Stephen H. Schneider, San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, Oct. 1989/317p. A global warming scenario to the 21st century.

A warmer climate resulting from the greenhouse effect causes significant impacts on North America. Drier, hotter summers result in a loss of agricultural production in the Midwest, the death of forests in northern states like Minnesota, and water shortages in states like New York and California. Violent hurricanes spawned in the warm waters of the Atlantic and Caribbean devastate large areas of the coast from the Gulf of Mexico to New England. Smoke from massive forest fires darken the skies across vast areas of North America. Coastal areas and areas around the Great Lakes are faced with decisions to either abandon shoreline infrastructure or invest hundreds of billions, perhaps trillions of dollars to rebuild them so as to accommodate fluctuating sea and lake levels.

Using Scenarios to Explore Future Energy Demand in Industrialized Countries, Lee Schipper and Stephen Meyers Energy Policy, March, 1993. Three scenarios of energy to the year 2010.

This article presents scenarios that represent the direction in which current and expected trends seem to be moving; what might happen if energy efficiency were given a high priority by governments and the private sector; and what might be achieved if restraining energy use became a very high priority for public policy. The scenarios delineate an important boundary between a relatively easily attainable improvemnt in efficiency and a more problematical level of change. Scenario 1.) Trends: "this scenario reflects a world in which energy prices rise slowly, and only modest attention is given to energy efficiency. In keeping with the current expert consensus world oil prices increases by around 50% between 1990 and 2010, with more of that increase coming in the first decade of the next century than in the 1990s. Scenario 2.) "this scenario envisions a future in which full adooption of marginal cost energy pricing and internalization of many environmental and other externalities boosts real energy prics to uses by 25-50% relative to the trends scenario." Scenario 3.)Vigorous Effort: this scenario depicts the most that could plausibly be achieved within a 20 year time horizon. The limit is not so much technology itself, but rather the rate at which more efficient technologies and practices could penetrate widely into the capital stock. Energy prices rise to 50-100% higher than in the trends scenario, reflecting incorporation of strong carbon taxes as well as more aggressive internalizaton of externalities associated with local environmental problems related to energy production and use."

Scenarios for Energy: Sustainable World vs. Global Mercantilism, Adam Kahane Long Range Planning August 1992 Vol. 25. Two global energy scenarios to 2010.

This paper outlines two scenarios prepared in the Group Planning coordination of Shell International Petroleum Company. The World of 1990: "The only solid basis we have for discussing the future is information about the past and the present. In 1990, the present is a time ofpromise but also of considerable risk. In these scenarios, we concentrate on three areas of potentially far-reaching change: geopolitics, international economics, and the natural environment. Scenario 1.) Global Mercantilism: "In this scenario, the new post-Cold War international order proves to be too weak to withstand serious political and economic shocks and set-backs. Regional conflicts, such as in the Middle East, are destabilizing and difficult for the new order to deal with. The current GATT negotiations fail or, at best, produce a feeble and meaningless agreement. Financial instability is accentuated by deregulation and rising interest rates. Faced with a downturn, politicians focus on national economic difficulties, and there is little international leadership. Continued frustration over trade and investment imbalances leads to increased protectionism. Overall, the response to the downturn is ineffective and confrontational, and it turns into a recession as severe as in the early 1980s." Scenario 2.) Sustainable World: In this scenario, the international economic frictions that have been in the headlines can be resolved, and attention focuses instead on the resolution of common problems, including environmental ones. There is widespread consensus on recipes for economic stability and growth, and co-operation among the largest economies allows economic shocks to be defused rather than accentuated. The dangers of a failure in international trade negotiations are recognized, and interdependence - especially between the U.S.A. and Japan-is seen to be too great for 'divorce' to be a feasible option. Regional conflicts are dealt with effectively by large power alliances. A new security framework is built in Europe around the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE).

The Greenhouse Doomsday Scenario Jeremy Rifkin, The Washington Post, Sunday, 31 July 1988, C3. A global warming scenario to 2035.

In the mid-21st Century, the world is hotter by 4-15 degrees F. Current industrial growth, fossil fuel use, and consumption continued unchanged - global temperature rise was destined to be the result. "By 2035 there were palm trees in New York City, Holland was under water, Bangladesh no longer existed; there were parched deserts in central Europe and the US Midwest, and the Canadian population swelled to 200 million." This scenario concludes that the only effective means of absorbing Co2 is through reforestation, but currently, the rate of deforestation is 10 times greater than reforestation. Reducing Co2 will require enormous worldwide coordination and mobilization.

Our Drowning World: Population, Pollution, and Future Weather. Anthony Milne, Bridgeport, Dorset UK: Prism Press, March 1988/154p. An environmental scenario to mid-21st Century.

The author describes the earth getting warmer, in which rising tidal levels may be the most critical environmental problem of the coming century. "During two centuries of progress we have been our own 'Horsemen of the Apocalypse,' killing not with fire and sword but by unleashing ill-understood and complex chemical and biological processes." The author describes a pessimistic floodwave scenario of the end of the world as we know it, due to warming. "Our assault on nature was driven by what was perceived as the virtue of accumulation, and for a long time we excused it as cruel innocence, a tolerable side effect of progress. But it turned into a culture of consumption and an inexcusable threat to human survival."

Los Angeles 2007: Implications of a Scenario Analysis for Energy Forecasting, Stephen M. Millett Planning Review May/June 1992. Three scenarios of L.A. to 2007.

Using alternative scenarios of possible future conditions, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWAP) has developed contingency plans to meet long-term demand in the most efficient and economical manner. Scenario 1.) Continued trends: In this extrapolation of current statistics, the population grows to 10.8 million by 2007; growth in per capita income is moderate; the regulatory environment remains the same; fuels increase in price between 3 and 8 percent per year; advances in technologies using electricity create modest increases in total demand; technologies improving the efficiency of generation and transmission of electricity make minor advances; rates charged by LADWP rise at or near the inflation rate: demand for electricity increases slowly and steadily, mostly in the commercial and residential categories. Scenario 2.) Technology Pull for Electricity: "Innovations in certain technologies, such as electric cars, vastly increases demand, especially in the residential category; Federal regulation toughens; fuel costs rises mor than 8 percent per year; co-and self-generation of electricity by commercial and industrial customers increases; LADWP rates rise faster than inflation; population ranges from 8.8 to 9.8 million; and growth in per capital income is moderate." Scenario 3.) Reduced Demand for Electricity: "Adoption of the electric car and other demand-creating technology is slow; regulation is weak, co-and self-generation facilities increase; power station generation or transmission technologies don't become significantly more efficient; the cost of fuel increases less than 3 percent per year or even declines slightly; LADWP rates increase at or near inflation rate; current economic and demographic trends continue; electricity sales to residential, commercial and industrial categories falls almost to 1986 levels, largely due to conservation."

Twelve Scenarios for Southern California Edison, Case Study Planning Review May/June 1992. Twelve scenarios of the energy environment for Southern California to 21st century.

In 1986, Southern California edison completed a review of its planning practices over the past 20 years. The company decided that the best way to plan for future uncertainties is to postulate a series of plausible scenarios and prepare flexible responses for each of them. After a historical review of trends and a scenario planning analysis, the following 12 scenarios are presented and in the article, coupled with responses. Scenario 1.) Economic Bust: "the nation is in a protracted depression, the result of a U.S. imposed high tariff on imports, followed by retaliations, which greatly reduce international trade...The reduced level of economic activity results in a direct loss of 3,000 megawatts of load..." Scenario 2.) High Fuel Cost: "extremely high oil prices and sluggish economic growth are triggered by such events as the re-emergence of OPEC. The price of ooil skyrockets to $80/bbl and the resulting shock creates a global economic recession much like the mid 1970s." Scenario 3.) Extensive Bypass: "Plentiful supplies of natural gas, improvements in micro-cogeneration systems, and high SCE rates induce many industrial and commercial customers to provide their own power..." Scenario 4.) Expanded Environmentalism: "drastic environmental restrictions on air emissions, water quality, waste disposal, and land use are imposed on Southern California to meet EPA standards ..." Scenario 5.) Noncompetitive Pricing: "SCE's efforts to contain "uneconomic bypass" cogenerators have been unsuccessful. Sales lost to self-generation increase, and SCE's ability to maintain its cost competitiveness is in jeopardy. As a result, the company loses 1,000 megawatts of load". Scenario 6.) Economy Imports: "An abundance of externally generated, low-cost energy is now available for purchase by SCE from new hydro projects in Canada;..." Scenario 7.) Generation Shutdown: "Two thousand megawatts of SCE-owned baseload capacity is lost due to events beyond the company's control..." Scenario 8.) Conflict: "Because of global tensions, a large military buildup occurs. California defense contractors increase production of airplanes, missiles, and space weapons..." Scenario 9.) Electrification: "A sudden wave of new electrical devices, processes, and applications on the market. There is also a big increase in industrial electricity usage and wide acceptance of electrical powered vehicles..." Scenario 10.) Low Oil Prices: "A period of strong economic growth is bolstered by low oil prices as a result of declining open power or the discovery of new resources elsewhere..." Scenario 11.) Economic Boom: "There is an explosion of economic activity in California created by strong economic activity throughout the Pacific Rim, which produces a large proportion of the world's manufactured goods, particularly electronics, computers, automobiles, steel, machinery, aerospace, and textiles. China and Japan rival the U.S. as the largest consumer markets in the world." Scenario 12.) Base Case Business Environment: "Assumes a continuation of present trends. These include economic expansion, a continued shift from heavy industry to services, moderate inflation, stable prices for oil and gas fuels, intensified environmental quality concerns, and continued residential construction and customer growth within SCE's service territory."

Environmental Futures: Four Visions from the Appalachian Trail Rik Scarce, Futures Research Quarterly, 4:1, Spring 1988, 5-22. Four environmental scenarios to 2000.

In 1986 the Appalachian Trail Conference (ATC) established a Long-Range Planning Committee (LRP) to look at environmental and control issues affecting the Appalachian Trail (AT). The committee wrote a report, Alternative Futures for the Appalachian Trail and Appalachian Trail Conference in the Year 2000 that included scenarios derived from an extensive alternative futures matrix. The matrix and four scenarios are presented. Scenario 1.) Continued Growth: "an optimistic scenario extrapolating trends touting the success of U.S. economic liberalism, achievements in technology, and the promise of general advancement for all. Tensions between the icehouse effect (another theory about climate change) and the greenhouse effect stabilizes world climate. The AT is managed by private hands and private funds, with the ATC as a shining example of the success of private groups directing the use of public lands." Scenario 2.) Decline and Stagnation: "the economy is weak and American life is chaotic. Ecological changes along the Trail are most profound and the demand for wood, long the primary fuel of developing countries, skyrocketed in the US, as natural gas and oil prices rose." Scenario 3.) Sustainable Society: "a new set of values gains growing acceptance throughout the US. The bioregional concept, based on the geographical, floral, and faunal characteristics of given areas, appealed to people from coast to coast who were disgusted with the ever increasing environmental degradation. The Trail stands as a symbol of these new values and is well taken care of." Scenario 4.) The Transformation Future: "people realize the importance of individual freedom. The work-hard-for-money 80's was appreciated, but there is more to life than that. There are many choices since society has become high-tech. New technology and increased leisure time have influenced the Appalachian Trail in profound ways."

Paradigms in Progress: Life Beyond Economics. Hazel Henderson. Knowledge Systems (1991); Berrett-Koehler, 1995. Environmental scenario to the 21st century.

Social and environmental costs increasingly challenge the price system and GNP/GDP calculators of economic growth as "progress." The rise of civil society: the world's informal, non-money sectors and citizen movements for corporate and government accountability compete for media and policy attention. The search for new values and "earth ethics" leads to new statistics beyond GNP/GDP which are inter-disciplinary and measure "quality of life" directly.

Dead Heat: The Race Against the Greenhouse Effect. Michael Oppenheimer and Robert H. Boyle, A New Republic Book. NY: Basic Books, April 1990/268. A global warming scenario to 2050.

In this scenario, a series of disasters from the mid-1990s until 2050 devastate the continental United States. The cause - global warming. This book considers the many strategies that might be applied toward reducing the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Into the 21st Century: A Handbook for a Sustainable Future. Brian C. Burrows, Alan J. Mayne and Paul Newbury, Adamine Studies of the 21st Century, #1. Twickenham UK: Adamantine Press, Aug 1991/442p. Three scenarios of sustainable development to 2100.

After considering world models and past scenarios of world futures, the authors provide the following alternative scenarios of sustainability. Scenario 1.) A Pessimistic Scenario: unchecked continuation of present trends. In the 1990s, widespread conflict continues in the Middle East despite efforts to build a lasting peace. As a result, oil production is reduced and major pollution problems occur. Terrorism becomes an increasing problem around the world. Environmental damage continues unabated as economic expedience overrides long-term sustainability. In the 21st century, the situation worsens as climate change resulting from global warming, combined with massive population growth, results in wide-scale environmental destruction. Scenario 2.) A Piecemeal Scenario: various environmental problems facing the planet are tackled, but slowly and separately. The Middle East conflict continues with much destruction to the environment but relatively small loss of life. The economies of Eastern Europe make a successful transition to capitalism while poverty and malnutrition becomes endemic in the developing world. China's industrial development adds to the greenhouse gas problem. Although some technological "fixes" have solved a few problems, accidents by technology, such as nuclear power plant explosions, contaminate urban and rural areas. Scenario 3.) An Optimistic Scenario: a new world social order emerges and problems are dealt with systemically. Private enterprise becomes more responsive to the environmental needs of the planet. This, combined with public pressure, results in dramatic reductions in energy and resources. The improved economic and political climate results in a decline of social tensions and a reduction in terrorism. In the 21st century, many of the world's problems are well on the way to being solved. By the mid-21st century the standard of living for all of the world's people begins to increase significantly as new technologies (for example, solar energy, genetic engineering, and computers), are put to uses that benefit humanity.

2050: Standing Room Only? Carl Haub, The Washington Post, Sunday, 8 July 1990, C3. Population scenarios to 2050.

This article makes a plausible argument against conventional population projections. The author believes that population growth will in fact be much higher by 2050. The article utilizes mini-scenarios to illustrate population trends. Recent trends suggest that generally accepted UN estimates of a world population peaking at around 10.2 billion people may be too low, citing such things as the increase in fertility in some industrialized countries and decreasing commitment to controlling population growth in the developing world.

Beyond the Petroleum Age: Designing a Solar Economy. Christopher Flavin and Nicholas Lenssen. Worldwatch Paper 100. Washington: Worldwatch Institute. Dec. 1990/65p. A practical energy scenario to 2030.

The authors describe a scenario that is driven by sustainable energy technologies becoming increasingly cost-effective. In this scenario, a major transition from petroleum energy sources to sustainable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric) occurs in the early part of the 21st century. These renewable energy sources will be cleaner and more secure than current petroleum-based sources. By 2030, renewable energy will supply much of the world's energy needs - 50 to 70 percent of current U.S. needs, for example, can be plausibly supplied by renewable energy.

The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Joel B. Smith and Dennis A. Tirpak, NY: Hemisphere Publishing Corp. May 1990/689p. Global warming scenarios to 2100.

A variety of computer-based scenarios using different meteorological variables identify a series of impacts that could result from global climate change. These impacts include: changes in water availability and quality, a one-meter rise in sea level by 2100 resulting in 25% to 80% of U.S. coastal wetlands being drowned; reduction in food crop production; significant changes in the country's forests by the mid-21st century; a reduction of air quality in urban areas; increase in the mortality rate of the population, and increased demand for electricity.
 
 The Cosmic Winter. Victor Clube and Bill Napier. Oxford UK and Cambridge MA: Basil Blackwell, March 1990/307p. An asteroid scenario.

This book opens with an apocalyptic scenario of Earth encountering a cosmic swarm of asteroids. The first few strikes occur in the Midwest of the U.S. and are initially interpreted as low-level nuclear attack. "The Secretary is informed that the damage corresponds to explosions amounting to at least twenty megatons. …The conclusion seems unavoidable that for some reason the Soviets have targeted bombs onto American territory, having somehow circumvented military radar." Within 24 hours the entire earth is bombarded by this terrestrial catastrophe. Clube discusses "terrestrial catastrophism" - the idea that the evolution of life and fundamental geological processes were actually controlled by sudden impacts of material from space. The conventional view is "that earth evolves in splendid isolation from its surroundings." According to the authors, this is proving to be wrong. "Swarms of asteroids that have crossed earth's path have been proven to have occurred and had thus affected cosmic winters and sudden cooling of the globe over the past 5000 years."

Our Country, The Planet: Forging a Partnership for Survival. Shridath Ramphal, Washington: Island Press, May 1992/291p. Three scenarios of the environment to the year 2000.

This book is actually derived from a personal statement by the former foreign minister of Guyana on the agenda of the Earth Summit. It contains a number of chapters on the environmental state of the world and concludes with three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Muddling Through: "a continuation of the present pattern of inadequate ad hoc responses to developments as they become critical. This is a scenario of well-intentioned but usually limited action; fire fighting rather than fire prevention. Only lip service is paid to the "precautionary principle" of minimizing, and wherever possible, preventing discharges of substances that would be harmful and of ensuring that products and processes are nonpolluting." Scenario 2.) An Ordered World: "the IMF and World Bank gain power as these institutions increasingly tackle global environmental problems, but on the overall, failure ensues because external values and methods are imposed on communities that more often have a better understanding about how to manage resources than outsiders." Scenario 3) Enlightened Change: the path of shared responsibility for our common future. A significant degree of multilateral commitment to environment and development, and ascendancy of democratic values worldwide. A good line is struck between self-denial and self-indulgence. Multilateral funds finance sustainable development.

Factors Shaping and Shaped by the Environment: 1990-2010. Joseph F. Coates J.F. Coates Inc, Washington, Futures Research Quarterly, 7:3, Fall 1991, 5-55. Six regional scenarios of the environment to 2010.

Despite a mixed regional situation, the overall prospects for environmental improvement are poor. These scenarios provide a glimpse of the major trends driving each region, and environmental consequences from the perspective of 1991. Scenario 1.) Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc: the openness of glasnost reveals massive environmental degradation and economic systems ill-equipped to deal with it - the hope is a massive Civilian Conservation Corps-like program. Scenario 2.) Taiwan: rapid economic growth is both cause and cure. It leads to a very degraded environmental situation, but provides the financial means for a subsequent cleanup. Scenario 3.) Western Europe: environmental prospects are the brightest here of any region in the world. Scenario 4.) Brazil: faces the problems of rapid industrialization and world outcry about the degradation of its rain forests. A promising development are debt-for-nature swaps. Scenario 5.) China: faces the problems of industrialization, but unlike many other developing nations, has it's population growth more or less effectively under control. Scenario 6.) Sub-Saharan Africa: grim prospects as governance deteriorates and limits effective actions, and population growth is largely unchecked.

From Growth to Equity and Sustainability: Paradigm Shift in Transport Planning? Ian Masser, Ove Svinden, and Michael Wegener Futures, 24:6, July - Aug 1992, 539-558. Two scenarios of transportation in Europe to 2020.

The Network for European Communications and Transport Activities Research was set in 1986, "involving more than 70 scholars from 19 European countries in a series of research projects. One project sought to explore the future evolution of transport and communications in Europe and to discuss alternatives for an integrated policy. The year 2020 was chosen as the forecasting horizon." Future Survey Annual 1994 This report poses two scenarios of transport and communications in Europe. Key assumptions driving the scenarios are: continuing legitimacy of the European government, population of 400-500 million, and no big catastrophes. Scenario 1.) Basically a scenario of growth, equity, and environmental sustainability. Scenario 2.) A horror scenario, considered most likely by experts if the growth path of Western European economies continues. There will be "unparalleled spatial disparities between regions and cities, congested roads, a collapsed public transport system, a disappearing countryside, and a devastated environment."

The Future of World Population, Wolfgang Lutz, Population Bulletin, 49:1, June 1994/47p. World population scenarios to 2030.

This is a report based on a late 1992 meeting of demographers at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis. Key trends discussed were: world population continues to grow; developing countries will account for a growing share of the population; and average age increases will take place in all regions. This report provided a full array of scenarios. Scenario 1) Baseline: moderate levels of fertility decline and mortality improvement yields a world population of 9.5 billion in 2030 or 12.6 billion in 2100; Scenario 2.) High Migration, High Mortality, Low Fertility: world population is 8.3 billion in 2030; Scenario 3.) Low Migration, Low Mortality, High Fertility: world population is 10.7 billion in 2030; Scenario 4.) Low Migration, Low Mortality, Low Fertility: world population is 9 billion in 2030.

Energy for Tomorrow's World: The Realities, the Real Options, and the Agenda for Achievement. World Energy Council, WEC Commission. London: Kogan Page & NY: St. Martin's Press , Dec 1993/320p. Energy scenarios to 2020.

The World Energy Council developed four energy scenarios to illustrate future possibilities in a world of 8.1 billion people by 2020, with global demand ranging from 17.2 gigatons (Gtoe) oil equivalent in a "high growth" scenario to 11.3 Gtoe in an "ecologically driven" scenario. Major concerns are reflected in the proposed Agenda for Action, such as increasing availability of non-fossil fuels, curbing harmful emissions, and removing institutional rigidities. This report concludes that, beyond 2020, the magnitude of supply problems could expand drastically, especially if higher global energy demand occurs and too little is done to develop alternatives.

The Fragile Tropics of Latin America: Sustainable Management of Changing Environments. Edited by Toshie Nishizawa and Juha I. Uitto, Tokyo: United Nations University Press, March 1995/325p. Two scenarios of sustainability to 2030.

Two scenarios in the next forty years are made for tropical Latin America, a region that is critical to global health with its biodiversity and natural resources. Scenario 1.) Reference Scenario: continuation of trends that push the agricultural frontier and intensifies land use. Moderate economic growth and decreasing national regulations cause the unchanged mode of development, expanding influence of transnational corporations, and the dominance of market forces. Social and economic inequities can only increase. The performance of environmental policies are ineffective, further threatening ecosystems due to an export-oriented economy. New technology fails in its application. International coordination of economic policies would reform the external debt of the LDC, reversing the current net capital flow from the South to the North. Scenario 2.) Sustainable Scenario: characterized by the satisfaction of the needs of the population, better economic and social equities, participation, and decentralization. Assumptions are the implementation of national and regional environmental policies; R&D focusing on regional issues; social and economic reforms; land use zoning and regulation of the agricultural frontier; industrial policies for renewable and non-renewable natural resources and agriculture; the development of local energy sources; technological innovations for the revalorization of the renewable natural resources, and the development of new sustainable productive uses and internal and international market "windows of opportunity", especially regarding tropical forests and agricultural production. The technological pluralism (complementary use of traditional, modern, and high technology), and productive pluralism (the coexistence of different types of agriculture), are emphasized. Future Survey Annual 1996
 

Growing Green: Enhancing the Economic and Environmental Performance of U.S. Agriculture. Paul Faeth (WRI). Washington: World Resources Institute, April 1995/81p. Six scenarios of sustainable agriculture to the 21st century.

US economic and environmental performance in agriculture can be enhanced, with special focus on subsidy programs. Scenarios illustrate the study's findings. Scenario 1.) Standard Baseline: reflects policies enacted in the Food, Agriculture, Conservation and Trade Act. Only predominant production practices are represented in the standard base line. Scenario 2.) Extended Baseline: the policy assumptions remain the same, but the alternative production practices are analyzed with more conventional ones. Scenario 3.) Supercompliance: introduces a tighter conservation-compliance regulation in commodity practices. Scenario 4.) Fixed Subsidy for Best Management Practices Scenario: assumes nationwide extension of the Agricultural Conservation Program, providing cost-shares for conservation practices. Scenario 5.) Adjustable Subsidy for Soil and Water Quality: examines the benefit of targeting. Subsidies are based on performance, determined by the value of avoided damages to off-site water quality. Scenario 6.) Adjustable Subsidies with Program Cuts: increases unpaid acreage (normal flex acres) from 15% to 50%. As a result of this study, a major reduction in agriculture's impact on the environment is possible as well as economically advantageous.

World Supply and Demand Projections for Cereals, 2020. Mercedita C. Agcaoili and Mark W. Rosegrant Listing of 2020 Briefs file:///B!.NUMBER02.HTM. Three scenarios of world cereal supply to 2020.

Three scenarios of world food and supply. Scenario 1.) Current Growth Rates will Continue: baseline scenario describing the developed countries producing more than they consume, but cereal deficits in developing countries continue to increase to the year 2020. Scenario 2.) 20 Percent Reduction in Yield Growth Rates: presents the likely cereal supply and demand situation if yield rates are 20 percent lower than their current levels. Scenario 3.) "Scenario 2" Plus a 20 Percent Reduction in Income Growth Rates in Developing Countries: compounds the slower yield growth (in scenario 2), with a 20 percent decline in the growth of national incomes in developing countries.

The Wealth of Notions - The Ecological Revolution and the Power of Ideas. William K. Shireman Global Futures Foundation Internet: http://www/quiknet.com/globalff/globnoti.html. Two scenarios of sustainability to early 21st century.

Study of sustainability by Global Futures Foundation. Key trends are: increasing resource depletion and increasing ability to conserve energy (Negawatts and Immaterials). Three things businesses need to do: identify waste, eliminate waste, and count the money they save. Scenario 1.) Sustainable Growth: taxes on consumption, energy efficiency, reduced transportation growth, stabilizing population. Scenario 2.) Industrial Growth: taxes penalize income and investment, little energy efficiency, industrializing countries follow industrial model, education remains stagnant, population grows.

The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Joel B. Smith and Dennis A. Tirpak NY: Hemisphere Publishing Corp. May 1990/689p. Scenarios of global climate change from 2000 to 2100.

The Environmental Protection Agency pulled together a variety of scenarios to determine the impacts of global climate change. Impacts include: changes in water availability and quality; a one-meter rise in sea level by 2100 resulting in 25% to 80% of U.S. coastal wetlands being drowned; reduction in food crop production; significant changes in the country's forests by the mid-21st century; a reduction of air quality in urban areas; increase in the mortality rate of the population; and increased demand for electricity.

Renewable Energy from the Ocean: A Guide to OTEC. William A. Avery and Chih Wu. NY: Oxford Press, March 1994/446p. Two U.S. energy scenarios to 2020.

Two scenarios for commercial development are proposed: Scenario 1.) Methanol Commercialization: "construction of 427 methanol plantships at about $500 million each with enough total capacity to replace the imported petroleum used in the US; if financial support is maintained, the program can be completed by 2020." Scenario 2.) Ammonia Commercialization: "construction of 1,681 ammonia plantships at about $450 million each to supply enough fuel to replace all gasoline used in the US in 1990. The principal differences between the two scenarios are that replacing gasoline with ammonia fuel would entirely eliminate carbon emissions, but would require a larger automobile adaptation cost."

Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability. Global Scenario Group, California Institute of Technology http:// www.hf.caltech.edu/hf. Six scenarios of sustainable development.

Global scenarios divided into three broad categories: Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions. Conventional Worlds "have in common a vision of a world where development, governed by the growth dynamics of industrial society, is gradual and steady. Population grows and aggregate economic output expands indefinitely while consumption and production practices in developing and transitional regions converge toward those of industrialized countries, even as the latter become much richer. The world becomes progressively more integrated both economically and culturally." Within Conventional Worlds, there are two scenarios. Scenario 1.) Reference Scenario: economic growth is given first priority as economies open and largely unregulated markets expand internationally. While some countries, groups and firms lose the race and are excluded, many prosper. Technological development is rapid, driven by market opportunities. Scenario 2.) Balanced Growth: growth-oriented, but assumes a comprehensive policy response to the environmental and social risks encountered in the Reference scenario. This scenario does not assume major deviations in the conventional development paradigm, values, and institutional structures, but within those constraints incorporates rapid economic growth, greater distributional equity, and vigorous attempts to protect the environment. Barbarization scenarios "explore the possibility that the coming century will be far grimmer than the conventional wisdom. Barbarization scenarios assume that the negative stresses present in Conventional Worlds scenarios overwhelm the coping capacity of markets and management institutions. The world veers toward Barbarization - worlds of sharply declining physical amenities and widespread breakdown in the social and moral underpinnings of civilization. The major driving forces initially propelling this scenario include worldwide political and economic changes, inequity and persistent poverty, growing populations, increasing environmental problems, and rapid technological innovation." Within Barbarization, there are two scenarios. Scenario 1.) Breakdown: the degree of conflict and rivalry between the different international actors has become so high that no long-term concerted actions are possible. Chaos rather than coherence becomes the order of the day. Scenario 2.) Fortress

World: the rich international actors comprehend the dangers of forces leading to the Breakdown scenario that confront them, and are able to muster a sufficiently organized response to protect their own interests and to create lasting alliances between them. Arising within the cynical and pessimistic social mood of Barbarization conditions, these alliances are not directed at improving the general well-being, but at protecting the privileges of the rich and powerful elites. Great Transitions: scenarios "explore the possibility that global society, rather than continuing its present course (Conventional Worlds) or descending into cruelty and chaos (Barbarism), evolves to a higher stage." These scenarios may seem idealistic and improbable from today's perspective-but they are possible, and may even be necessary to achieve the goals of sustainability and equity. The scenarios are Global Governance and the New Sustainability Paradigm, which differ in their mechanisms but not in their (quantitative) endstates. One feature common to these scenarios is the emergence of three important new social actors: intergovernmental global organizations, transnational corporations, and non- governmental organizations.

HUMANITY COMES INTO ITS OWN - The First Truly Human and Global Society Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

This scenario assumes that the full economic and social effects of recent technological advances are still far from realized, and that they are likely to propel a widespread and lasting surge of economic growth-growth that will be surprisingly widespread and, in developing regions, very rapid. Further, this wave of rising prosperity will bring peace and increasing individual freedom to an unprecedented proportion of the world's people. This scenario acknowledges that many environmental problems may worsen (although some may eventually turn around) and that economic disparities may increase, but asserts that these stresses will not be sufficient to undermine progress in most regions. The result, a century hence, will be the first truly human and global society.

The Environment in Geopolitical Relations. Ike Chang and Lloyd Dixon, RAND. Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

A new paradigm of geopolitical relations emerges in which the environment acts as the basis of political, economic, and military relations between rich and poor countries. National leaders of rich countries couch their foreign policies in terms of environmental protection. Political regimes of poor countries threaten the world with environmental contamination to extract financial concessions and political support from richer countries. Eventually, military actions are justified under the rationale of "protecting the global environment."

III. TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACITY

At Home With High Technology (Special Issue), IEEE Spectrum, 22:5, May 1985. A technology scenario, late 20th to 21st century.

Article on high-tech home systems and a scenario on what could happen if the systems do not perform as they should. Tongue-in-cheek account of high-tech devices malfunctioning in the home, including an automatic sprinkler system, the VCR, remote-controlled appliances, and a built-in security system, among others.

The Possible Futures of Multimedia Anderson Consulting, 1994. http://www.ac.com/tag/execsum.html. Four scenarios of multimedia to the 21st century.

Anderson Consulting tackles the uncertainties of multimedia technologies using scenario based planning. The scenario development process involved a cross-section of expertise from both inside and outside the firm. The work revealed two major uncertainties or driving forces that is believed to have significant influence on how multimedia technology will impact the future: the quality of demand and the state of the economy. Scenario 1.) Virtual World: is a richly interactive future - a future in which business and consumer users don't so much choose as co-create the products and services they want. So important is multimedia in Virtual World that it begins to blue the boundaries between "business" and "consumer" environments, and contributes to a fundamental restructuring of industry. Scenario 2.) Bizworld: multimedia plays out differently in the consumer and business environments. In the consumer market, it is simply a tool to navigate through many choices. In the business market, applications are more robust and provide businesses a means of creating a more productive work environment. Scenario 3.) Upstairs Downstairs: is a future that plays out the polarization of wealth in the developed nations as well as a split of the population across the acceptance of technology lines. This results in a scenario of haves and have-nots. It combines features of Virtual World (haves) and Slow Boat (have-nots). Scenario 4.) Slow Boat: is a blocked scenario - a scenario in which the big news is no real news. Slow Boat is a world in which users accept limited choice as the primary value-added, and in which the economy stays slow. Multimedia is the revolution that never came.

How Digital Uses Scenarios to Rethink the Present, Lucia Luce Quinn and David H. Mason Planning Review November/December 1994. Five scenarios utilized as business models.

This case study of scenario planning at Digital shows how top management uses the process for testing, probing, pushing, and provoking strategic thinking about the future. Middle managers find the scenarios helpful for modeling their current businesses. Mason: "Most people believe that scenarios are always about the future, but this is not so. Scenarios can offer different perspectives on what is happening today and can stimulate productive discussions. The scenarios we developed at Digital were actually business models, not long-term visions." Interesting alternative view of scenarios. Quinn goes on to describe the models. Model A: addressed commodity businesses. Model B: concerned an architectural franchise or technology-driven business. Model C: was a networking and utilities business at a time beyond the initial stage of convergence. (Convergence is the concept that data transmissions, cable, phone, software, and computers will become a unified system). Model D: was the systems-integration business. Regardless of the product or service, such businesses provide value added solutions, mainly through their people skills. Model E: was what most managers consider an ideal business.

Rethinking Nuclear Power, Richard K. Lester, Scientific American, 254:3, March 1986, 31-39. Scenarios of nuclear power to 2000.

An excellent and highly technical overview of nuclear power. At the end of the article, two scenarios are presented. "The range of possible futures for nuclear power in the U.S. thus comes down to three broad possibilities. One is a return to Light-Water Reactor (LWR) technology in an improved form, perhaps in as little as a decade. The revival of the technology would take place within a more streamlined industry, with fewer and more competent organizations operating in a stabler regulatory climate. Foreign LWR suppliers, having enjoyed livelier domestic markets in the meantime, would introduce many of the improvements and might figure commercially in the U.S. revival. In the second scenario conventional LWR's would fail to regain commercial acceptance, but after some years one or more second-generation reactor technologies conceived for small size, passive safety and centralized, modular fabrication would reestablish nuclear power as a major source of electricity for the next century. At the moment it is not possible to say which of the first two scenarios represents the likelier outcome, and indeed there is no need to do so. Efforts to reform existing institutions and to improve conventional technologies should go forward along with explorations of radical new technologies. Neglecting either approach will make all the likelier the third outcome: the disappearance of nuclear power as an option for the future. That is a loss the nation could ill afford."

Arthur C. Clark's July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st Century. Arthur C. Clarke (Sri Lanka). An Omni Book. NY: Macmillan, Nov. 1986/281p. A technology scenario to 2019.

Direct communication between the mind and computers is the dominant element of this scenario about work in the 21st century. A multitude of computer-based assistants do most of the routine tasks - filing, scheduling, bookkeeping and the like - while humans take care of problems that aren't easily anticipated, making complex decisions, and exercising their creativity. At the heart of this scenario is a set of technologies that includes artificial intelligence (AI), intelligence amplifiers, and mind-computer linkages.

Bulletin From the Future, Max Frankel. New York Times Magazine, September 29, 1996. A computer scenario to the year 2096.

Scenario of a drastic event in which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announces that an epidemic is spreading on all continents, clogging channels of communication, including live links to human nervous systems (in this scenario, miniature or nano-tech computers are inside human beings). The agency advises that a computer virus has been unleashed, which appears to have incapacitated key links in the Universal Network and destroyed financial records across the earth. The most severe damage occurs in advanced nations, with the United States standing to lose nearly a century's records. The entire world goes back to the use of paper, and the bulletin announces, for example, that the "USA Times-Journal will publish limited paper bulletins containing Government advisories and other crisis news, but without its customary interactive features, games, and advertisements. The company is reopening printing plants that were mothballed a decade ago when the last subscribers switched to compuphones that receive customized newspapers. " The CDC is working urgently to develop an effective vaccine that will repel the guilty virus and permit at least limited resumption of computer management and an early restoration of public services." Culprit suspected to be from Asia.

Toward the Electronic Book, Nathanial Lande, Publishers Weekly, 20 Sept 1991, 28-30. Smartcards scenario to the 21st century.

This article sketches a "scenario" of users inserting re-usable Smartcards into vending machines called Bookbanks. These smartcards are about the same size as credit cards, and Bookbanks can be found in bookstores and libraries around the world. These digitized cards have a 200-megabyte capacity that can contain an average of 200 books. They can be inserted into a Bookmark player with a paper size screen. The Bookmark player would have such features as buttons to turn pages, and an adapter for CD-Rom disc and video play. This is technologically feasible, and "although the electronic book will not soon replace the pleasures of book covers and pages to turn, in time it will become standard as the Nintendo generation, a generation much more familiar with computer visuals than with print, catches on." Publishers will benefit because problems of distribution, printing, and storage will be eliminated and there are enormous environmental advantages in keeping millions of acres of forest out of the paper pulp mills. Potential solution to deforestation, using technology and market forces.

The Information Millennium: Alternative Futures. Clement Bezold and Robert L. Olson, Washington: Information Industry Association. Information scenarios to 2000.

A study of the future of information conducted by the Institute for Alternative Futures for the Information Industry Association, poses four scenarios driven by advanced information technologies. Scenario 1.) The High-Tech Information Society: a booming economy, traditional American "achievement values," and advanced information technologies drive the high-tech information society. The information industry grows at twice the rate of the GNP. Information products and services are individually tailored. Privacy is not a problem as a result of both new encryption technologies and public acceptance of less privacy. Government plays a limited role in the information marketplace and there is a heavy reliance on the marketplace to resolve problems relating to the information society. Scenario 2.) The Creative Society: rapid technological progress and a dynamic economy drive this scenario. However, the information revolution and a profound change in values result in more expressive, socially focused actions. Personal growth and social progress are as important as financial success. Privacy is rigorously protected. Government interference in the information marketplace is very limited. Scenario 3.) Things Bog Down: slow technological progress, significant failures in artificial intelligence technologies, and poor economic conditions result in slow growth of the information society. Privacy becomes a major concern and government takes a major role in regulating the information economy. A gap between the "knows" and "know-nots" develops. Scenario 4.) 1984 and Beyond: tough economic times, an AIDS epidemic, and terrorism lead to public acceptance of greater government surveillance and control. Privacy is swept away as government and corporate access to sensitive personal information becomes commonplace.

Information Technology and Global Interdependence. Edited by Meheroo Jussawalla, Tadayuki Okuma and Toshihiro Araki. Westport CR: Greenwood Press, July 1989/321p. Information technology scenario to 2016.

A scenario on the impact of ISDN (integrated services digital networks) on interdependence - 30 year scenario of development to 2016, culminating in an emerging "world brain" concept of managing complexity, and a possible series of "information wars" or information terrorism. 

Great Infrastructure Debate. An Industry Leader Symposium by Northeast Consulting Resources, Inc., Boston, Massachusetts. Internet:http:/www. file:///B!/GID394.HTM. Information highway scenarios to 2000.

Thirty planners, policy makers, and thinkers from a diverse group of organizations came together in 1994 to participate in a two-day conference to debate alternative scenarios for the evolution of the US Information Superhighway. Key Findings: There is a great deal of risk associated with all of the different models for infrastructure build out. There are so many competing approaches that all can't possibly be successful. Five scenarios were presented and plausibly linked to the future of the information superhighway. Scenario 1.) ClubInfo: alliances of carrier, content provider, and ancillary companies are formed to rapidly build an infrastructure and do the systems required to deliver information services. Although each alliance is comprised of many independent companies, a common brand name is used for alliance services. Scenario 2.) Welcome to the Carnival: rapid advances in technology drive an explosion in the number of communications and content services and corresponding growth in the number of service providers. Information and edutainment services spring up on a variety of networks, which include plain old telephone service (POTS), cellular, cable television (CATV), database services (DBS), etc. Scenario 3.) The Information Empowered Society: technology takes a back seat to national interests. The construction of a national infrastructure creates a competitive advantage for the United States in a global economy. Government sponsorship and stewardship ensures that a network linking schools, libraries, hospitals, homes, and businesses is not trivalized by the commercial sector. Government must be a strong advocate to ensure that the national network provides value to the nation. Scenario 4.) Content is King: a network bandwidth is now as much a commodity as personal computers. Network build out provides access to competing networks from most American homes and businesses, leaving carriers with more capacity than content. Competition among carriers has driven down prices. Scenario 5.) Least Time to $: a world in which tight alliances between industry players allow a rapid build out of the infrastructure and rapid deployment of applications that yield revenue. The risks in building an interactive broadband network are huge-the best strategy is to spread the risk among many industry players.

Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution. K Eric Drexler and Chris Peterson, with Gayle Pergamit. Foreword by Stewart Brand. NY: William Morrow, Sept. 1991/304p. Nanotechnology scenarios through the 21st century.

The development of technology for building molecule-sized machines (nanotechnology) results in a host of changes ranging from health to climate. In a series of mini scenarios scattered throughout this book, the impacts of nanotechnology are illustrated. Among the developments: nanomedicine - microscopic devices injected into the body that will hunt down and kill cancers, remove injured or diseased tissue, repair arthritic joints, and eliminate wrinkles and unwanted hair. Nanocomputers - computing devices the size of a sugar cube that can outperform any supercomputer currently available and storage devices that let you carry a library containing all the information in the world's libraries in your pocket. Nanoengineering - molecular devices that can be programmed to build flawless cars, bridges, rockets, or whatever you want. Nanoenvironmentalism - microscoping robots that clean toxic substances from the environment. This book also looks at some of the threats that uncontrolled access to nanotechnology would present.

The Museam of Nanotechnology, Charles Platt, Scenarios: Special WIRED Edition. December, 1995. Developments in nanotechnology arrayed as scientific landmarks described in rich imagery by Michael Crumpton. Useful to scenario work.

Nanotechnology - tiny and great leaps for the human race. In the future, nanotechnology is used for everything from DNA Data Storage to Anti-cancer nanomachines to nanoscale braille. A more interesting and grand use of nanotechnology in 2050 is asteroid terraforming. The museum aptly describes it: "Asteroid Terraforming - the asteroid (imaged in the scenario) is being reworked by preprogrammed nanoscale robots to create a fully equipped space habitat for human colonists. The robots were sent out on a conventional rocket that crash-landed on the preselected asteroid. After the nanosystems used indigenous carbon and metal ores to make billions of copies of themselves, they set to work converting the asteroid. When human colonists arrive, they will find comfortable residences ready and waiting. Since this initiative began in 2050, almost 5 million people have relocated to the asteroid belt. Already we are seeing a new generation that has never experienced life on Earth."

The Computer for the 21st Century, Mark Weiser, Scientific American, 265:3, Sept. 1991, 94-104. Computer technology scenario to the 21st century.

Normative scenario of the future of computer technology. Describes a future where computers have become invisible and ubiquitous. Advantages: technology will become faster, easier to use, more personal, and will penetrate all social strata. Weiser states that, most importantly, ubiquitous computing will help to overcome information overload.

Communicating in a Shrinking World. Tony Stevenson, Papers de Prospectiva, Centre UNESCO de Catalunya, Mallorca 285, 08037 Barcelona). Communications scenarios to 2020.

Four scenarios of the year 2020 suggest the possibilities of communications technologies. Scenario 1.) Gold Lame and Sackcloth: in this world, the nation-state is slowly replaced by elite global networks; the have have-not gap continues to widen; more regions are marginalized while culture is globalized with English language more widely used and life becomes more automated while the environment becomes more artificial. Scenario 2.) Drab Uniform: in this world, the confusion of communications and networks encourage global centralizing authorities. Global uniformity, efficiency, and productivity are supreme values. Concentrated networks of business and self-serving interests are enabled by communications and information technologies, thus replacing nation-states. Scenario 3.) Rich Tapestry: in this world, the wealth and information gap begins to close, a rich tapestry of diversity is valued most, the nation-state is largely replaced by a network of communities largely self-organizing at local and regional levels; several languages emerge in international use (especially Chinese). Scenario 4) Bazaar: some slight closing of the rich/poor gap, a variety of fabrics and a mosaic of networks coexist with patches of centralized authority; ownership of networks fairly widespread, great variation among regions.

Future of Telecommunications Scenarios for MCI. MCI Scenario Planning Group. MCI Homepage URL: http://www.rnell.edu/courses/nba610/am6/mci5.html. Four telecommunications scenarios to the year 2014.

A planning group for MCI assessed scenarios of the future of telecommunications. Trends that impact the scenarios include: bandwidth capacity and demand, government regulation, acceptance of digital commerce, convergence of communications and content technologies, revenue source - consumers versus advertisers, mergers and acquisitions, wire versus wireless transmission. Critical uncertainties include the convergence of communications and content technologies and revenue sources - consumers versus advertisers Scenario: 1.) Waldman's World: in this world there is little convergence of communications and content technologies. Consumers are the primary source of revenue. There is a clear distinction between local, long distance and wireless (cellular) services and service providers; the Internet is a commercial flop ( its main purpose is to repackage existing products); users pay for basic access to the telecommunications system and additional charges for useage and extra services. Scenario 2.) Bierman's Basement: like the previous scenario, there is little convergence of communications and content technologies. However, advertisers are the primary source of revenue. In this world, the following occur: there is a clear distinction between telecommunications and cable TV services; internet commerce thrives and is used for designed products, there is a dramatic reduction in the number of telecommunications carriers; telecommunications companies battle cable companies for revenue. Scenario 3.) The Kampas Construct: in this scenario, there is significant convergence of communications and content technologies and consumers are the primary source of revenue. Telecommunications infrastructures merge and become "universal service providers "(USPs). USPs provide wire/wireless communications, networking, and home entertainment; consumers pay for commercial-free entertainment; traditional TV advertising and broadcast networks become endangered. Scenario 4.)The Stayman Situation: like scenario three, there is a significant convergence of communications and content technologies. However, advertisers consumers are the primary source of revenue. Advertisements combine with entertainment as major revenue sources; demographic information and targeted ads sell for a premium; telephone service is cheap; partnering with or acquisition of market research and ratings companies occurs.
 

The Internet - Leveling the Development Playing Field or Broadening the Gap? By Gerald Garner. Internet: http://www.ac.za/departments/journ/awol/internetdev.html. Two Internet and development scenarios to the 21st century.

The Internet is part of the information revolution, pointing 20th century society into a new direction. What does this mean for Africa and for other developing areas? Can the Internet enhance development? Or will it only broaden the gap between the "have" and "have-nots"? Two scenarios of Africa and the information revolution are described: Scenario 1.) Africa takes advantage of the information revolution and leap frogs into a new age of development. This describes the story of Internet enhanced development and closes the have-have not gap by making more people educated and competitive; Scenario 2.) Africa misses the opportunity and is left behind, totally isolated and is far behind the developed world. The biggest problem with the Internet in this world, is access and literacy. People can't use the Internet if they can't read, nor can they if they can't afford to pay for the services.

Technology and the American Economic Transition: Choices for the Future. Office of Technology Assessment, 1988. Http://www.gbn.org/BookClub/OTA html. U.S. technology and economy scenarios to 21st century.

This Office of Technology Assessment report (now formally the OTA), "makes an imaginative, well-analyzed, documented and reasoned argument for the growing impulse that rapid technological change is bringing to the US and other modern industrial economies. It is very rich in data on nearly all aspects of American life and has thoroughly examined a great variety of possibilities in depth. The mode of analysis is genuinely inventive as it explores the networks of consumption and production and how technology could reconfigure those networks." Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network. This book projects four scenarios, with clear logic and two steady growth paths of 3% or 1.5% for the next two decades. The authors came to the surprising conclusion that despite massive technical change there is very little structural and fundamental changes in U.S. society that results from the impacts of technology.

Politics in a Parallel Universe: Is There a Future for Cyberdemocracy? Michael R. Odgen, Futures, 26:7, Sept. 1994, 713-729. Scenarios of cyberdemocracy to 21st century.

For years cyberspace has received little interference from government or business. However, with government, commercial, and public attention turning towards the global Internet and the proposed U.S. national information infrastructure, this is all about to change. Two possible scenarios. Scenario 1.) Cyberdemocracy (or Jeffersonian Networks): "founded on the primacy of individual liberty and committed to pluralism, diversity, and community; largely free of metered services and restricted access; the best "schools" and teachers available to all students; access to government information becomes a right of all "netizens" in the facilitation of their informed participation in the democratic process." Scenario 2.) Virtual Mercantilism (or Digital Gold Rush): "the private sector builds the information highway and controls terms of access, use, and content. This also includes responsibilities for netizens, as suggested by the "bill of Rights and Responsibilities for Electronic Learners."

Nanotechnology: Scenarios of Development and Impact Alan L. Porter and Frederick A. Rossini, Science and Public Policy 17:4 Aug 1990, 229-234. Three nanotechnology scenarios to 21st century.

Nanotechnology is the manipulation of processes at the molecular scale. This article examines nanotechnology and provides three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Incremental impacts that begin in the 1990s. Scenario 2.) High techno-economic impacts, where nanotechnology becomes the basis for much industrial production and underlies infotech. (which could occur by 2015). Scenario 3.) Total societal impact where nanotechnology thoroughly transforms society, the 'engines of creation' create unbounded wealth, and the economics of scarcity are displaced by a new economics of distribution.

Technology Spares the Environment Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

The 21st century emerges as an era of techno-optimism. Accelerating technological advances help to boost industrial efficiencies, prosperity, and environmental sustainability throughout most of the world. These technological advances are driven in part by market competition, which tend to reward firms and societies that produce more for less. The dramatic efficiency gains in the use of land, energy, materials, and labor unleashed by technology and market competition outpace population growth and increases per capita consumption. The world economy becomes better equipped to meet human needs with less land, pollution, and natural resources. Dire warnings of widespread food shortages, pollution, overpopulation, and environmental depletion never materialize.

A Technology-Rich Global Society Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

This scenario assumes that modern food storage and transport techniques can be deployed essentially everywhere over the next 50 years. That alone would double today's useable food supplies. Provision of adequate irrigation water on existing agricultural land would double food supplies again. Thus, even without further gains in yields, food is not a problem if there are adequate supplies of water and energy.
 

More Human Than Man: The Future Evolution and Consequences of Metamachines. Collected works of Patrick Gunkel, c. 1982. Chapter 18, Transitional and Posthuman Scenarios. 304 future scenarios involving metamachines.

"The word 'metamachines' has been coined to refer to mechanical minds or beings whose intellectual, psychic, behavioral, or ontic level or sophistication resembles or even surpasses man's ('metamechanical' is the related adjective). These metamachines of the future will virtually transcend what we mean by machine or by the distinction between mechanical and organic entities; hence they merit a new category and a new designation. Ultimately they will so surpass-in power and complexity-life and mind as we know them that biological organisms and brains will be what deserve derogation as "merely mechanical". Listed here are developmental, transitional, and posthuman scenarios that concern the future of metamachines either directly or indirectly and that are fairly exhaustive of the major possibilities. The scenarios treat different dimensions of the subject, different issues, concepts, problems, and possibilities, different factors, circumstances, sequences, assumptions, and relationships, different chronologies, topics, and perspectives; some represent sets of alternatives, others overlapping, similar, dissimilar, and unrelated possibilities; some are general, others specialized, in nature; some focus on causes, others on effects, still others on abstract relationships; some describe what is probable, others what is merely possible, others what is unlikely or impossible; some are optimistic, some pessimistic; and so on." Some of the 304 scenario titles include: Brain Research Origin Scenario, Robot Civil Rights Scenario, Peace Through A.I. Scenario, A.I. Research Breakthroughs Scenario, Dehumanization of Man by A.I. Scenario.
 

IV. DEMOGRAPHICS AND HUMAN RESOURCES

The Future of Work: A Guide to a Changing Society. Charles Handy, Oxford UK and NY: Basil Blackwell, July 1984/201p. Four scenarios of work to the 21st century.

Handy's central theme is that the world of work will never be the same again, and we are experiencing more than just a cyclical adjustment. New patterns of work are emerging, such as a full-employment society becoming a part-time one, blue collar jobs becoming while collar jobs; industry is declining and services are growing. Four scenarios are discussed as a way of focusing the future options of work: Scenario 1.) Unemployment Scenario: unemployment is seen as a necessary and inevitable cost of bringing down inflation. High unemployment levels are accepted by society for the greater good. Scenario 2.) Leisure Scenario: this scenario gives unemployment a positive twist by foreseeing a leisure society in which the arts and recreation flourish. What work there is will be done by an elite few with the aid of a lot of machines. Scenario 3.) Employment Scenario: the only real form of work is a job, this scenario says. That means having a place to go and, preferably, useful work to do. But even if it is simply "seat-warming," a job in this scenario is preferable to unemployment for both the individual and society. Scenario 4) Work Scenario (advocated by Sandy): according to this scenario, a job is only part of the work and individual doeas. Learning, leisure and community service are the other elements of an individual's work.

Scenarios for a Religious Organization with Branches in five Continents. Eleonora Barbieri Masini. A Paper prepared for the Profutures Workshop, September 27th, 1995. Scenarios on the future of the world religious organization to the years 2001 and 2015.

A fascinating and very extensive scenario study of a religious organization composed of women and created in the nineteenth century as a missionnary endeavor. This organization is curently active in five continents: Australia, United States, Latin America, Africa, Asia, and was prompted to look into its future because of two major factors: changes in the environment in these regions and the aging of the organization from the North and influx of much youger members from the countries of the South. The scenarios expanded to the global, regional and local levels, and were written in three forms: "Trend and utopian scenarios would be used and as many normative scenarios as possible or necessary. The trend scenario involved the various geographical parts of the organization, and of the organization as a whole. Was a description of the situation as it could be expected in 2001 and 2015, against the global and local level, should no decisions be taken in 1994. The utopian scenario envisioned the greatest hopes of the organization members and the normative scenarios were those alternative scenarios that answered the possible goals of the organization as a whole and at the regional levels." Masini concludes that the scenario building exercise achieved it's educational aim and the scenarios themselves provided an important tool for gaining a better understanding of the overall environment.

The Future of News: Television - Newspapers - Wire Services - Newsmagazines. Edited by Phillip S. Cook, Douglas Gomery, and Lawrence W. Lichty. Washington: Wilson Center Press & Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, May 1992/270p. Scenario of news in the year 2000.

Papers and commentary from a Wilson Center conference on the future of news. In the Epilogue, Peter Braestrup sketches a scenario of news in 2000 where proliferating multimedia technologies give the public overwhelming access to news. Factors that influence the content of news by the 21st century are: dramatically increased efforts to raise the quality of education and the continuing diversity of the audience. News becomes specialized. "The expansion, dynamism, and increasing complexity of both government and nongovernment activity have fostered the growth of special publications and even cable TV channels for various kinds of news-news about defense, the environment, law, housing, science, religion, international business-inasmuch as no single newspaper or magazine can now chronicle all significant events in all fields." Stories will also become shorter, as they have been shortening over the past two decades. The attention span of the major news media, already diminishing, will become even more abbreviated. Growing gap continues between the information haves and have nots.
 

Delphi in a Future Scenario on Mental Health and Mental Health Care, Rob Bijl, Futures, 24:3, April 1992, 232-250. Scenario to the 21st century.

A scenario study on mental health and mental health care in the Netherlands over the next two decades. A delphi inquiry formed an essential part of the study and helped build the scenario model. This article describes the delphi process and the scenario building process, then generated the scenario model that served as a backdrop for four mental health themes: dementia and schizophrenia, emotional and behavioral problems in children and adolescents, and occupational incapacity due to mental disorders. For research into how futures methodology can be applied to alternative scenarios of possible and desirable futures in the field of public health and health care, this is a useful article.

Homelessness: A Prevention Oriented Approach. Edited by Rene I. Jahiel, Baltimore: The John Hopkins U Press, June 1992/409p. Three scenarios of homelessness to the 21st century.

Three scenarios for the evolution of homelessness and its prevention in the United States in the short term (i.e., in the next 5-10 years) are constructed, based on the concepts of dominant, challenging, and repressed structural interests. Scenario 1.) the dominant structural interest drives to accelerate the gap between the rich and poor, without a 'trickle down effect' in this social order. People try to ethically justify this situation as the homeless problem becomes more severe. Government does very little , and the homeless problem spins out-of-hand as the homeless are put away from main localities and isolated. Government is forced to increase spending on them, which only develops a 'homeless industry' dealing with homeless operation. Scenario 2.) challenging structural interests drive the government to tackle the homeless problems, but without significant structural changes in economics of housing for the poor or in the power relationships of the repressed low-income groups. Housing still remains a private business and the social welfare system for housing, (e.g., public housing) has not yet developed. Government does not coordinate between challenging and dominate interests and faces many obstacles for legislation and implementation. As a result, only little government funding is spent for selected homeless people. Scenario 3.) repressed structural interests drives extraordinary efforts at the micro and macro level. Some structural changes occur in answer to the push of homeless organizations and demands on the homeless-makers rather than on homeless people. On the micro level, local governments prevent and terminate homelessness, promoting housing for the poor in various innovative ways. This is "advocate-intensive" and "consumer-intensive" work, covering the areas of people with mental health, substance abuse, or other problems with entitlements, job training, and other career services. On the macro level, the national economy has to change to reduce the homeless-making process and pressures toward homelessness. Each sector, such as housing, employment, health, education, and the family, all have to support low-income families.

Scenarios of Change in Urban Environments, Arthur B. Shostak, Futures Research Quarterly, 11:1, Spring 1995, 5-19. Three urban scenarios to the 21st century.

According to the author, our choices for the future, especially regarding public policy, is influenced by the optimistic view, the pessimist view, and the possible view. These three perspectives are applied to alternative futures of four urban cities in the U.S. Scenario 1.) Hard Edge City: The most deserted case. There is a very stark gap between the rich and the poor. Colored and poor people live in urban areas with a lot of crime; there is a huge lack of public health and other services. Environmental degradation abounds. Scenario 2.) Edge City: development of suburban cities. However, there are problems, such as a very strict regulation of city planning (e.g. uniformity), and no harmonization of ecosystems. Scenario 3.) Soft-Edge City: a most desirable case. Assuming a successful economy and a high-tech world, human well being is realized and harmonized within the ecosystem. There is more free time, no discrimination of any kind, more cooperation, and more voluntary public services. Scenario 4.) No-Edge City: this case can be a transitional case to the other three. This regional "hot spot" is characterized by full cooperation among city, county, research university, and business sector, with entrepreneurial spirit and thus by attractive, cosmopolitan, and high standard of living.

Welfare Versus Work. A report by David Dawson, Policy Analyst, Alabama Arise, 1994. Four welfare scenarios: short-term, but illustrates a principle that applies to all ages, including the 21st century.

A set of short-term but interesting scenarios used to support the idea that, when looking at the facts, welfare benefits do not necessarily discourage people from working. Work is more financially advantageous than welfare. "The benefits one receives on welfare cannot compare to the benefits one receives working even a minimum wage job." Scenario1.) The Typical Family on Welfare: in this analysis, the person defined as the "typical" AFDC recipient is a woman with two young children living with a family member. In this study it is assumed that the mother makes an informed choice between the combined benefits of welfare and the combined benefits of a minimum wage job. Scenario 2.) The Worker Finds a Full-Time Job at Minimum Wage: here, a woman is able to find a full-time job at minimum wage and leave AFDC, for it is shown that her combined cash and benefit income would increase dramatically. Scenario 3.) Second Year on the Job: assuming that this woman continues a second year at this job at minimum wage with no benefits, her combined benefits do change somewhat. She would continue earning $8,840 per year, her Food Stamps would continue at the same level, her WIC would remain at the same level, and her taxes, expenses, and EITC would remain the same. However, her out-of-pocket expenses for her personal health care and child care would increase. Scenario 4.) First Year at the Typical Job After Welfare: assuming that, instead of earning $8,840 per year working 40 hours per week at $4.25, the woman works at the wages and hours that the average post-AFDC recipient works (29 hours per week at $5.05). Again in this scenario, her income is higher than it would be if on AFDC.

Eight Scenarios for Work in the Future, Martin Morf, Futurist Magazine, June 1983. Eight scenarios of work to the 21st century.

Changes in society and technology could bring a broad variety of possible futures to the working world. Key trends common to all scenarios are: robotics, automation, rate of growth of technology, the amount of work generated by the economy, and the degree to which work is rewarded. Scenario 1.) Extreme Taylorism: increased productivity makes most work superfluous and brings the 10 hour workweek within reach. Everyone serves on the economic front a few hours each day and everyone is entitled to a living wage. Workers are liberated by machines, computers, and robots, and can work less and live more. Scenario 2.) Feudal Unions: a scenario of strong unions with even greater power causing the worsening of some problems like runaway wages; seniority rather than skill or merit determines who will have the privilege to work. Scenario 3.) Underground Work: the feudal union scenario is thus quite compatible with an "underground work" scenario, in which ever-greater segments of the work force cooperate outside of the formal economy. Scenario 4.) Work Coupons: shared characteristics of the feudal union and underground work scenarios is an uneven distribution of the scarce, but essential and possibly interesting, commodity called a job. Both are depressing scenarios, with a large section of the population left to its own devices, and both go against the grain of American egalitarianism. Scenario 5.) Gods and Clods: if the technology that society develops is not accessible to the average person, there could arise a society made up of an extremely busy elite of professionals and a useless majority unable to manipulate the words and mathematical symbols of the information society. Scenario 6.) Shadow Work: in this scenario, there is no need for formal make-work projects. Shadow work is distributed unfairly by the rich and powerful, who need odds-and-ends done; Scenario 7.) The Electronic Cottage: in this future, technology and computers are pervasive and accessible to all. The high economic growth rate generates challenging and profitable work, and the work is distributed fairly. Electronic networking replaces the need for much informal and shadow work. Working in the electronic cottage could bridge the gap between the world of work and the culture in which we live; Scenario 8.) Subsistence work: this scenario demands a reversal of the path toward ever-greater consumption, material wealth, and physical comfort, back to earlier methods of production that are more labor intensive and more clearly linked to the important and meaningful business of subsistence.

Looking Back to School, James A. Mecklenburger, Phi Delta Kappan, 67:2, Oct. 1985, 119-122. School in 21st century.

A scenario of the past 20 years looking back from 2005, written by the president of the Productive Schools Association of North America in 1994-97. Education in 2005 included the following changes: learning goals replace curricula; influx of portable computers; new patterns of school organization; "expert systems" for use in teaching.

Three Scenarios for the Future of Teaching, Arthur E. Wise, Phi Delta Kappan, 67:9, May 198, 649-652. Three scenarios of the future of teaching to 21st century.

A fascinating and unique look at the future of teaching. Scenario 1.) Business-as-Usual: "yesterday's practices and today's policies remain in effect. The supply of teachers runs low while demand increases, and alternative certification is instituted. But this does not attract well-qualified candidates, and education-minded parents respond by pulling their children out of public schools." Scenario 2.) The Two-Tiered Scenario: "the structure of the educational system parallels that of the US Army during the era of the draft, with a permanent cadre of senior teachers and administrators who supervise ever-changing contingents of temporary teachers (many of the current proposals for career ladders expect that a permanent cadre will rise through the ranks to assume these duties.)" Scenario 3.) The Professional Scenario: "the states cooperate with education organizations and others to reform the training, induction, and certification of teachers. High and carefully enforced standards restrict the supply of professionals, and working conditions appropriate to a professional conception of teaching evolve. This scenario holds the greatest promise for producing professional teaching in the public schools. Realizing it will depend on the willingness of policymakers to improve teacher salaries and working conditions, and will enforce entry standards in the face of unstaffed classrooms."

2020 Visions: Health Care Information Standards and Technologies. Edited by: Clement Bezold, Jerome A. Halperin, and Jacqueline L. Eng. Three scenarios on health care technologies to 2020.

This report is based on a September 1992 Conference sponsored by the United States Pharmacopoeia Convention, Inc. on the future of health care information standards and technologies. Scenario 1.) High Technology/Continued Growth: technological progress, good management, and a resilient global ecosystem combine to allow economic growth. Health care therapeutics advance dramatically. Health care emphasizes the prediction and management of illness. Scenario 2) Hard Times/Focused Innovation: recurring economic hard times slow growth, but lead to Canadian-like health care system with a frugal universal basic benefit that utilizes nonphysician health care providers and encourages home care/self-care, aided by advanced information systems. Scenario 3.) Global Business: because multinational companies are growing, most national economies are also growing. The need for effective global operations leads to horizontal standards for most manufactured items, with the International Standards Organization taking the principle role. Scenario 4.) The New Social Contract: as the social contract becomes more clear and more accepted, and as societies become more diverse, dramatic changes take place in business, health, and health care. Diagnosis and treatments in health care are increasingly varied.
 

White Collars Turn Blue, Paul Krugman New York Times Magazine Sept. 29, 1996 . An economic transformation scenario from 1996 - 2000.

A scenario in which society looks back from the first part of the 21st Century and finds that many popular assumptions about the information age were wrong. For instance, people believed that the major forces driving economic change would be the continuing advance of digital technology and the spread of economic development throughout the world. The future would bring an 'information economy,' mainly producing intangibles. This assumption was wrong. In looking back, it was realized that five major transformations were missed. 1.) Souring Resource Prices: it was assumed that the prices of commodities would always be low, but price surges inevitably occurred. 2.) The Environment as Property: appreciating the real price of environmental use and consumption wasn't fully realized until 2043. 3.) The Rebirth of the Big City: during the second half of the 21st century, the big city seemed to be in decline and replaced by sprawling suburbia. The reality was that the city flourished and the center of true "multimedia" was New York City. 4.) The Devaluation of Higher Education: in the 1990s everyone believed that education was the key to economic success. But many of the jobs that once required a higher education were eliminated or exported. In the early part of the 21st Century, jobs that required only 6 months of vocational training paid nearly as much, if not more, than jobs that require a masters degree or Phd. 5.) The Celebrity Economy: since the information economy made it easier for creative works to be distributed with very little pay for royalties, the only way to make money in this future, is to endorse a product by promoting sales of something else. Instead of an information economy, it became a "celebrity economy."

The Future of Intellectual Property. Copyright TaskForce, University of Michigan, 1995. Internet: http://www.taskforce. File:///B!/IP2.HTM. Four scenarios on the future of intellectual property to the 21st century.

This study resulted in four scenarios for improving the management of copyrights at research universities. Scenario 1.) Enhancing Current Practices: this scenario envisions individual university members mounting strong programs for campus information, discussion, involvement and support through model languages, contracts, and licenses, copyright advice, information about academic publishing and publishers. Scenario 2.) Faculty Ownership of Copyrights: faculty authors allow publication or other forms of access to each of their works on a case-by-case basis or by a statement of general principle. At a minimum, authors continue to grant to publishers the right to reproduce and distribute the work in a specific publication. Authors are responsible, either directly or through a central agency they or the university might create, for registering the copyright and granting permission to use their work. Scenario 3.) Joint Faculty/University Ownership of Copyrights: envisions shared ownership between the faculty member and his or her university. The scenario relates in general to non-royalty producing works or works that are unlikely to produce royalties. The university and the author determine what rights to transfer to the publisher, whether to license certain uses of the work, etc. Thus, control is not automatically transferred to publishers. In order to implement this scenario, new employment contracts would be required to specify joint faculty/university ownership of these works. Scenario 4.) Joint Faculty/Consortium Ownership of Copyrights: in this scenario, copyright is jointly held by the author (s) of the work and a consortium of universities. This only applies to work for which the authors do not receive and do not have a reasonable prospect of receiving royalties and which does not fit under the category of work-for-hire. Any of the copyright holders has the right to copy or distribute the work or otherwise make it available, with the following significant exception: the author or authors retain the right to assign an exclusive distribution license to whomever they choose for a period not to exceed five years. This right would have to be exercised within a fixed time period after completion of the work - perhaps three years.

Where's Main Street USA? Gail Garfield Schwartz, Westport CT: Eno Foundation For Transportation, 1984/91p. A scenario of suburbanization to 2015.

A book on suburbanization in the future, concluding with a scenario for 2015. The author describes the most likely distribution of activities over the metropolitan landscape after all present leases for space have expired and after all present mortgages on downtown structures have been fully amortized.

The Futures of the Poor, S.P. Udayakumar Futures 27:3, April 1995, 339 - 351. Six scenarios of the poor to the 21st century.

"It is common to think that the poor have no future, or that their predicament will only get worse. These reactions are not very thoughtful or helpful when thinking about the future of the poor." Adopting a different approach, the author submits that poverty is a systemic oppression of a particular class of people and that the oppression is so severe and systemic it can be characterized as a 'structural genocide.' Seven possible future scenarios. Scenario 1.) Hand-Outs but No Help-Outs: "donors lack political will or a sense of justice to remedy the poverty situation permanently." Scenario 2.) Waiting for Godet: "the poor long for consumerism and comfort; the fittest survive and the rest perish." Scenario 3.) Preach the Gospel for the Poor: "the rich reinvigorate their patronizing policies and underhanded schemes, ranging from conservative crookedness to liberal wimpiness to social democratic sham: states become economies, societies become markets, and the poor become even more miserable." Scenario 4.) Viva Zapata: "similar to the Zapatista National Liberation Army in Chiapas, rebels with nothing to lose demand justice and better treatment." Scenario 5.) View from the Mountain Top: "the rich embrace a simple and less selfish lifestyle." Scenario 6.) To Be or Not to Be: "the poor renounce modernity, recognize their cultural roots, and return to former ways of life with traditional technology." Scenario 7.) One Species, One Destiny: "both the rich and poor realize that the well-being of the poor demands cooperation of the rich, and the safety of the rich relies on justice for the poor. The last scenario is seen as desirable, the first six are undesirable."

Methodology: A Scenario Method for Forecasting, Ove Sviden, Futures October 1986. 18:5. Four scenarios of automobile usage.

Four scenarios on automobile usage strategies in a future information society to the 21st century. This article presents the scenario method developed in connection with the author's time spent with the Saab Aerospace Corp. The method was then used and improved when the author worked for Volvo as manager for energy forecasting. Four early-stage scenarios on the future of automobile usage in an information society are sketched on two axis: Information Quality & Mobility. Scenario 1.) Stagnation: policy - survival and conservation; economy - recession; industry - slowdown; cars per capital - 350 per 1000 inhabitants; annual driving - 15000 km/car; traffic - restrained; technology - mass transit. Scenario 2.) Automotive: policy - mobility and clean environment; economy - growth; industry - R&D oriented; cars per capital - 900 per 1000 inhabitants; annual driving - 20000 km/car; traffic - congested; technology - advanced engines and fuels. Scenario 3.) Information: policy - inform yourself; economy - trade expansion; industry - information systems oriented; cars per capital - 250 per 1000 inhabitants; annual driving - 10000 km/car; traffic - substituted to a large extent; technology - computer/para-transit. Scenario 4.) Synergy: policy - decentralization and info-moblity; economy - international synergy growth; industry - systems oriented; cars per capital - 700 per 1000 inhabitants; annual driving - 20000 km/car; traffic - rapid/safe/controlled; technology - semi-automatic highway network.

Education and Community: Four Scenarios for the Future of Public Education. The Core Framework: Developing a Scenario Matrix. Global Business Network, Emeryville, California http://www.gbn.org

Global Business Network and the National Education Association came together to create scenarios on the future of public education. Trends that cut across all scenarios are: the decline of the nuclear family, the issues surrounding special education, and the promise of technology. Scenario 1.) Orthodoxy. Hierarchical (traditional), Inclusive: "this scenario assumes a turn toward traditional values, and the effort to enlist educators to impose those values on any and all who might resist them." Scenario 2.) Orthodoxies. Hierarchical (traditional), Exclusive: "like the last scenario, this one, too, plays out the reaction against value-free public education. Today's public education would seem to avoid imposing any one set of values in order to avoid offending other sets of values. The last scenario accepts the risks of offending marginal groups by imposing one set of red, white, and blue values. Here, values are also central to education, but different values guide different schools." Scenario 3.) Wired for Learning. Participatory (radical), Exclusive: "this scenario revolves around new applications of information technology. Information technology influences all of the scenarios, but this scenario is distinguished by an evolution of information technology more rapid and far-reaching than most people now anticipate. That info-tech will influence education is predetermined. How, and how fast, is uncertain. This scenario assumes that the evolution is very fast, and that information technology is the biggest story in the transformation of education over the next decade." Scenario 4.) The Learning Society. Participatory (radical), Exclusive: "in this scenario the pieces come together. Technology moves faster than in the first two scenarios, making this a radical change scenario. But the technology serves the ideals of inclusive community by facilitating a more participatory process than in the last scenario. Technology is a tool, not a driver. It serves the interests of play as well as work. Technology is designed to enhance humanity rather than to make money. The marketplace is less central than public space. While every bit as ubiquitous as in Wired for Learning, technology fades into the background of the Learning Society. It is a servant, not hero."

Global Employment: An International Investigation Into the Future of Work, Vol. 1. Mihaly Simai, ed. (March 1995), UNU/Wider, London and Atlantic Highlands, NJ. UNU Press. Global employment scenario to 2018.

A scenario of a new social policy in the year 2018, global in scope, aiming to guarantee a minimum part-time job of about 20 hours per week or 1,000 hours per year to secure a person's minimum basic needs. "Full employment policies of governments now concentrate on guaranteeing this first basic layer of employment." Other important developments in the world of 2018 include global agreements on a new system of wealth accounting (based on net value-added indicators related to non-monetary activities). This world has entered the age of total retirement, generally ranging from 72 to 78 ( the notion of compulsory retirement has almost disappeared, except for very specific jobs), and extensive retraining programs. There is a universal consensus that all workers should expect to learn new skills over the course of their work lives.

The Futures of Women: Scenarios for the 21st Century, Pamela McCorduck and Nancy Ramsey (1996), Addison-Wesley Press, Mass. Four scenarios of the future of women to 2015.

In this book, the authors explore dramatically different alternatives for the future of women. The authors collaborated with Global Business Network, applying the scenario planning technique to four very distinct, global futures. Scenario 1.) Backlash: " the priorities, mores, and values of religious rights in a depressed, no-growth, regionally oriented economy. Group rights prevail over individual rights. The global economy is depressed. For women, things have seldom been so grim: they rediscover that in bad economic times, societies East and West, North and South, consider them expendable." Scenario 2.) A Golden Age of Equality: "Western notions of individual rights, rule of law, and personal privacy take hold and prevail in a globally integrated growth economy. Individual rights generally prevail, the global economy grows robustly. A profound shift in consciousness has permitted both women and men to begin to think of women as different from, but not less than, men. The search for equality in the workplace brings about a new balance between family and work, and generates new energies and creativity." Scenario 3.) Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back: "Western notions of individual rights prevail, but the world economy is largely depressed and sluggish. Environmental protective measures are suspended in the name of the economy, disrupting what had begun as a movement towards global sustainability. The age is characterized by huge international migrations, people in search of jobs, housing, even food. The most basic needs of the world's women, such as nutrition, child spacing, protection from domestic violence, and workplace safety, are hard pressed to be addressed. Scenario 4.) Separate - and Doing Fine, Thanks: "in this scenario, group priorities, mores, and values tend to prevail over the Western notion of individual rights in a globally integrated, growth economy that allows absorption of the international baby boom of the 1990s and its echo. Outside the Western democracies, which prove durable, governments of new nations and newly liberated states have resumed relatively authoritarian ways to force social order and achieve the stability necessary for economic growth on the Singapore model. The individual rights generally prevail over group rights. The global economy depressed. Under these circumstances, the rights of women are deemed unimportant and in some places, sacrificed. "For their own protection," women are treated as less than equals."

Savior of the Plague Years Wired Staff Scenarios: Special WIRED Edition. December 1995. A global scenario of a pandemic to 2020.

An interview with Dr. Amy-Jessica Castillo of the Virtual Bioresearch Institute of Montecito, California, year: 2020. In this scenario, Dr.Castillo describes how she headed the research process that conquered the deadly Mao flu in 2020. The scenario describes the global spread of the plague that resulted in world panic and the death. "1998: Futile attempts at air terminal sterilization spelled doom for the airline industry. Two years into the Plague, domestic flights stood at 3 percent of their 1995 levels. All trips required complex paperwork, health screenings, and quarantine periods." " 2007: The United Nations tried to implement the not particularly successful "hygiene card." By 2007, fear of outsiders was too firmly a part of life to be mollified by bureaucracy." "2018: A cure, yes - but how to deliver? In the end, capitalism proved a most effective means, its soothing slogans able to deprogram decades of entrenched paranoia..."

Time Travel Kit to the Year, 2195, Sandra Noguchi Scenarios: Special WIRED Edition. December, 1995. Useful to scenario work.

Packing tips for your trip to the year 2195. Imagining the changes in culture, currency, weaponry, and the environment 200 years from now. What would you pack on a two week trip in a time machine to 2195? "Money? What's Money? Gold, platinum, or thorium may well be valueless in 2195. What artifacts from now might you bring if you had to trade in order to get, say, food? Remember, chances are that the things of value in the future are the things you could have had no way of knowing would be valuable: an autograph from Button Gwinnett; IBM stock; fertilized passenger pigeon eggs. Future citizens might also end up ransacking you for semi-random items. Some packing ideas: comic books, fruit juices, celebrity autographs, Star Trek dinner plates, drugs, baseball cards, freon."

Sex Objects, Douglas Coupland. Scenarios: Special WIRED Edition. December 1995. Useful to scenario work.

Very colorful images of products envisioned to impact the future of intimacy and reproduction through the next millennium. "2066: American law dictates that the 'Angel of Mercy' - an intrauterine device - be implanted immediately upon detection of pregnancy. The abortion inhibiting device recognizes any trace of RU 486, analogs, or other abortifacients, then releases neutralizing compounds and an electronic signal. Unlicensed removal triggers a mild lobotomizing drug, Depensazine, which renders the host mother comatose for a minimum of nine months. Made by the US Department of Energy, Sheridan, Wyoming." "2034: Illegal in many countries, but still very common: a battery-powered sperm centrifuge used to separate XX sperm from XY. Made by Bally-NASA's facility in Guantao, People's Republic of China."

A Day in the Life, Wired Staff Scenarios: Special WIRED Edition. December, 1995. A scenario of a day in the life Monday, October 19, 2020.

A scenario of a typical day in the life of the average media consumer. Interactive newspapers can be read anywhere, anytime. Examples of some of the news on October 19, 2020 are: "UnDeath Spray Closer to Human Trial: Virgin Stock Soars Heavenward - Virgin BioPharm last night narrowly won phase one of its on going battle for EU approval of human clinical trials of its controversial new 'UnDeath gene' therapy. Chairman Richard Branson made no effort to conceal his pleasure over the EU Bioethics Board decision to allow the approval process to proceed - a decision that caused VPB stock to rocket from USNew $221 per share to $302, a near market record. Branson joyfully stated afterward, "If we're not working toward life, then what are we working toward?" If human trials confirm the animal models, Virgin expects the use of its patented viral-vector to extend the average adult life-span anywhere from 15 to 18 years. The one-time-only nasal spray treatment is estimated to cost USNew$5 to manufacture, but industry insiders expect..." Other news items: "Bank Cops Nab Canadians in Liberian Bank Fraud." 'French Prez Poisoned." "Hacking McDonald's: The Real Tale Behind the 'Meat People'.

V. GOVERNANCE AND CONFLICT

An Address to the Council. Ben Bova. Chapter from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. A global governance scenario to 2044.

The context of this scenario is an address to the World Council in the mid-21st Century. The environment has suffered degradation on a wide scale, and the world just recovered from the "70 year Petroleum Wars" in which politics and military combat was driven by the desperation of poor people struggling for a scant slice of the world's resources. The war ended , thanks largely to the dedication of the United Nation's International Peacekeeping Force and to the scientists who made nuclear fusion power more efficient. An international tax is proposed to the World Council based on the ratio of each individual nation's gross national product (GNP) in comparison to the mean GNP of all the nations. Thus, the very richest nations would pay the largest tax, while the very poorest nations would have a negative tax, which means receiving income from the tax fund. The purpose of the tax is to establish long-term programs to improve economies. "Thus, the rich nations would pay to make the poor nations richer."

The United Nations: Policy and Financing Alternatives: Innovative Proposals by Visionary Leaders Edited by Harland Cleveland, Hazel Henderson, and Inge Kaul. Futures May, 1995. U.S. Edition 1996, The Global Commission to fund the U.N., Washington, D.C. Useful to scenario work.

"Capital markets and world trade become more democratic, orderly, truly efficient, and socially and environmentally responsible. Reveals how prices can reflect true costs through fees on use of global common resources, taxes on arms shipments, speculation, waste and pollution, and how such new international agreements can provide new revenue streams for a restructured United Nations and finance equitable, sustainable, human development."

Contributers include: Keith Bezanson, Emilio Cardenas, Robert Cassani, Erskine Childers, Oliver Giscard d'Estaing, Jo Marie Griesgraber, Alan F. Kay, John Langmore MP, Ruben Mendez, Morris Miller, and Maurice Strong.

This book is as indispensible to policy-makers, academics and NGOs as it is to finance ministers.

The World 2010: A Decline of Superpower Influence. Charles W. Taylor,. Carlisle Barracks PA: US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, July 1986/51p. A world power scenario to 2010.

The superpowers that once dominated the world in the 20th Century have lost substantial power and influence. New alliances of nations are forming and increasing, contributing to more intense competitive pressures and the possibility of armed conflict is ever present. This scenario plausibly describes linkages of events to show that there has been no World War since World War II., and no major depression since the early part of the 20th Century. By 2010, global population has increased to 7 billion people and the global financial integration trend continues to thrive strongly, creating more interdependence among nations, as well as new economic arrangements. The US was once the only leader and superpower of the world in 1997, but by 2010, the US lost its economic, political, and military influence substantially. In spite of this, the U.S. remains the most powerful nation in the world. This scenario misses the demise of the USSR, one of the countries described as less competitive on the world scene. The author goes on to describe that the world in 2010 as a progressive realignment to a new order of nations within five very distinct groups: postindustrial (US, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand), advanced industrial (Israel, South Arica, Taiwan), transitioning industrial (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico), industrial (China, Cuba, Philippines, South Korea, USSR), pre-industrial (all others, including the once-wealthy oil and resource-rich countries).

Fraternity Reigns. Richard Rorty. New York Times Magazine, September 29, 1996. A conflict scenario to the year 2044.

A scenario that tells the story of a world where the breakdown of democratic institutions during the Dark Years of 2014-2044 led to a painful recovery that forever changed the political vocabulary, sense of moral order, and economic order. In 2044, the atrocities of the have have-not gap that were taken for granted in the late 20th to early 21st century, have virtually disappeared since the violent revolutions arose to teach the stern lesson that we cannot be dominated simply by "rights." It goes beyond rights - it goes into the realm of fraternity. "During the first part of the 21st century, the pressures of a globalized world economy , the gap between most Americans incomes and those of the lucky one-third at the top widened. Looking back, we think how easy it would have been for our great grandfathers to have forestalled the social collapse that resulted from these economic pressures. They could have insisted that all classes had to confront the new global economy together." The scenario illustrates America rebuilding herself slowly; Europe is ahead of the world, mainly because this region had a substantial welfare system in place.

SDI: What Could Happen: 8 Possible Star Wars Scenarios. John Rhea. Harrisburg PA: Stackpole Books, July 1988/136. Eight star wars scenarios to the 21st century.

The author writes about the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) and portrays eight scenarios on the future of SDI. These scenarios are portrayed as imaginary news articles from various newspapers and journals. Scenarios range from the story of a fatal flaw resulting in full-scale nuclear war to the complete cancellation of SDI. Of interest is a scenario of a December 1999 article in IEEE Spectrum titled, National Academy of Sciences Warns of Perils from Continuing 'Star Wars' Research, in which the molecular engineering research that was originally launched under the SDI initiative (canceled five years ago), has created little nano-computers, originally designated to be "bio-chips" for new seventh generation computers, but they went out of control, and are capable of self-replication and wiping out all life on the planet. "The problem, according to the Academy, is there is no assurance that the growth process of self-replication can be stopped once it begins." According to the article, the National Academy of Sciences report was "quietly being circulated among high level government officials."

A Nightmare . Morton A. Kaplan. Article from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society. Edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. World scenario to 2044.

Aldous Huxley in Brave New World and George Orwell in 1984 wrote about anti-utopias in which ever present social controls would change the nature of man and of society. A Nightmare scenario by Kaplan proposes that in the mid-21st Century, it is technologically feasible to increase vast social controls to control the vulnerabilities of modern complex society. "Although modern complex society has both greater instantaneous and long-range flexibility than simpler societies, it also has less redundancy and more bottlenecks that could affect the whole society. Thus, major interruptions that overwhelm its instantaneous or short-run flexibility to get a chance to work, might cause great damage to the society." In this scenario, Kaplan describes a disrupted complex society susceptible to deliberate terrorist attacks accompanied by blackmail, organized crime, nuclear weapons in the hands of criminals, and conspiracies capable of bringing civil government to a halt. Vast social control becomes necessary to overcome terrorism. This scenario comes down to balancing the choice between two nightmares: terrorism or "ever present social control"

Alternative Futures for the State Courts of 2020. Jim Dator and Sharon J. Rodgers Chicago, IL: American Judicature Society, July 1991/206p. Seven scenarios of U.S. state courts to 2020.

Seven Scenarios sketched on what may happen to state courts in 2020. Scenario 1.) Judicial Leadership: State courts fill a leadership vacuum. Improvements in education and recruitment of judges and innovative adoption of technology by the courts lead people to put more faith in the judicial system. Scenario 2.) Generic Justice: all government sectors shrink except the military. Scarce resources retard adoption of technology and lower quality of judicial administration; nonetheless, an abundance of lawyers spurs proliferation of tort and product liability cases. Scenario 3.) Road Warrior: characterized by apocalyptic environmental collapse and global depression. Frontier justice prevails a la the Road Warrior and Mad Max movies. Scenario 4.) Multi-Door Courthouse: centers on the rise of alternative dispute resolution, which saves a court system choking on a backlog of cases, and alternative corrective techniques, which includes substantial decriminalization and a move to education-based approaches. Scenario 5.) Global High-Tech: involves the heavy adoption of technology, including electronic direct democracy and a flourishing of artificial intelligence. Robots are added to a United Beings Declaration of Rights. Scenario 6.) Super Surveillance: characterized by technology being used for surveillance, control, and the denial of human rights. Biological technologies, including cloning, are also used as tools of power and control, leading to the "Gene Wars." Scenario 7.) Green and Feminist: steps in following the collapse of capitalism. Communities flourish as the nation-state declines. Society emphasizes removing root causes of crime and the judiciary emphasizes rehabilitation.

Scenarios of State Government in the Year 2010 Thomas Bonnett & Robert L. Olson. Council of Governors' Policy Advisors, 1993. Three scenarios of state government in the year 2010.

The Institute for Alternative Futures conducted a study of state governments for the Council of Governor's Policy Advisors. After surveying trends and driving forces, the following scenarios were constructed. The original paper is quite rich in detail. Scenario 1.) The Entrepreneurial State: "State governments have become lean and efficient. Most agencies and programs have clear missions and priorities. Accountability measures have been developed that focus on both social benefits (effectiveness) and program costs (efficiency). State governments use of various strategies to improve their performance and the quality of services; privatization, decentralized management, market-based incentives and user fees,, and broadly dispersed technology." Scenario 2.) The Withering State: "State governments have become much smaller than they were during the 1980s. They retain direct responsibility for the criminal justice system, transportation, and public health; but they provide relatively few direct services and often not of high quality. State governments resemble holding companies; formula grants to localities constitute most of their budgets; they also contact with providers, communities, and nonprofit organizations to privide services." Scenario 3.) The Restructured State: "State governments in the year 2010 have primary responsibility for education, health services, housing, community and economic development, employment and training, social services, airports, and roads. Moreover, they are excelling at assuming these broad responsibilities, demonstrating high levels of planning, coordination, and management. Additional public resources combined with the elimination of federal regulations for hundreds of categorical programs have given state officials and managers tremendous flexibility and autonomy in shaping domestic policy and in designing programs creatively."

European Security Beyond the Cold War: Four Scenarios for the Year 2010, by Adrian Hyde-Price of the U of South Hampton, Sage Publications, June 1991/272p. Four European security scenarios to 2010.

A study of the underlying structural dynamics of European interrelationships. The implications are examined in a set of scenarios. Scenario 1.) NATO and an 'Atlanticist' Europe: NATO has adapted to the demands of the post-Cold War world and had developed into one of the central institutions of the new Europe; its view of European security is mostly Anglo-American and politically conservative. Scenario 2.) A West European Defense Community : the European security system has changed much more radically than scenario 1, with the emergence of a "West European Defense Community" as an alternative to an 'Atlanticist' Europe based on NATO, which is declining. Scenario 3.) The CSCE and a Pan-European Collective Security System: a pan-European system of collective security is established, based on an institutional CSCE, with an institutional ensemble-a CSCE Parliamentary Assembly; regular meetings of heads of state and government, and of foreign and other ministers; many specialist agencies; and its core, a European Security Council. Scenario 4.): L'Europe des Etats : describes a Europe without cohesive blocs, military alliances or multilateral security structures and thus is different from the other three scenarios, which characterize an 'architectural' structure - solidity, stability, firmness and order. In this case, the 'European idea' does not assume institutional form, and the value of supranational forms of integration is low. Thus, a new European security system will be established on the continued centrality and vitality of the nation-state, without superpower hegemony and bipolar bloc structures.

Pentagon Imagines New Enemies To Fight in Post-Cold-War Era, Patrick E. Tyler, The New York Times, Monday, 17 Feb 1992, p1. Seven war scenarios to the 21st century.

This article was based on some 70 pages of a classified Pentagon document. There was concern that the Pentagon was inventing a menu of alarming war scenarios to prevent further cancellation of forces or reductions of weapons. The article outlines seven scenarios. Scenario 1.) Panama: Right wing elements allied with Colombian drug traffickers mount a coup against Panama's civilian leaders, threatening the Panama Canal. Scenario 2.) Baltics: Russia attacks Poland and Lithuania. Belarus fights with Russia while Ukraine stays neutral. NATO responds. Scenario 3.) Baltics (II): out of the former Soviet Union or from some combination of powerful nations, a new, anti-democratic and expansionist superpower emerges to threaten U.S. interests, calling for a total mobilization for global war in the year 2001. Scenario 4.) Persian Gulf: Iraq invades Kuwait and northeast Saudi Arabia with 2,000 tanks and 21 divisions seeking to capture oil fields, air bases and sea ports. Scenario 5.) Persian Gulf (II): As Iraq invades Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, North Korea seizes the moment to strike South Korea, taxing U.S. support forces and supply lines. Scenario 6.) Korea: North Korea, using the cover of a peace initiative, attacks South Korea with 300,000 troops and 5,000 tanks seeking to capture Seoul. Scenario 7.) Philippines: A coup degenerates into factional fighting and some forces seize American hostages at the Subic Bay naval base and threaten 5,000 Americans still living in the area.

Future Wars: The World's Most Dangerous Flashpoints. Col. Trevor N. Dupuy NY: Warner Books, Jan 1993/334p. Speculative scenarios of where war might break out in the next five years to early 21st century.

Useful analysis of potential wars using speculative scenarios that suggest why a war would break out and how it would be fought. Using a Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model, a computerized combat simulation is provided. This model is used in various defense agencies and ministries throughout the world. Altogether, this book contains eight richly written scenarios covering most regions of the world. Possible global flashpoints are: * The Third Gulf War * The Fourth India-Pakistan War * The Sandinista War * The War for Transylvania * The Libya-Egypt War * The Second Korean War * The Second War for Africa * The Sixth Arab-Israeli War * The Sino-Russian Border War. Examples of two scenarios are: 1.) The Sixth Arab-Israeli War: "The Intifada, the Palestinian revolt, intensifies throughout the West Bank and Gaza. Egypt breaks diplomatic relations with Israel. The combined air forces of Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt invade the skies over Israel. The sixth Arab-Israeli war has begun." Scenario 2.) The Second South Korean War: "South Korean student protesters, marching to the demilitarized zone separating their country from North Korea, are fired on by South Korean security forces, resulting in early 1,000 casualties and worldwide cries of protest. Wildly escalating tensions culminate in air and artillery strikes by North Korea against the South that launch, in turn, the second Korean War."

The Second Annual End-of-the-World Forecast, Michael A. Leeden. International Economy v8 July-August 1994P. Three end-of-the-world scenarios to the 21st century.

Interesting article that examines the possibilities of the end of the world in the context of three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Ex-Soviet Union: the war of the military/KGB vs. The Mafiosa. Worsening relations and distrust among the military and intelligence agencies are pitted against the Mafia, particularly in Russia, but other nations are involved as well since the Mafia is an extended international network. Scenario 2.) The Middle East: Saddam's Revenge Against the Beast: describes a world in which Saddam Hussein is finally able to get "an eye for an eye" by political and military maneuvers. This involves not only conventional weaponry, but also biological and chemical weaponry. Scenario 3.) World War: Religious War: in this scenario, religion, traditionally the means for community, becomes a catalyst for war. Basic tenants are taken out of context and used to inflame many groups. Ethnicity is passionately on the rise.

Toward a Dangerous World: U.S. National Security Strategy for the Coming Turbulence. Richard L. Kugler RAND Copyright 1995. Http:// info rand org/publications/MR/MR485/ World security scenario to the 21st century.

This report is the final product of RAND's two-year National Defense Research Institute (NDRI) project on the future of the US. It examines the foreign policy and national security implications of a single dominant hypothesis: that a dangerous world may lie ahead; a world of greater turbulence than today's. The study proposes a scenario with three main aspects: political and economic tension in three primary regions-Asia, the Middle East/Persian Gulf, and Europe; geopolitical relations of the West with Russia and China, and tenuous Western Alliance cohesion. It examines the interrelationships of all three aspects and postulates U.S. policy for a new global alliance for security and prosperity to handle those aspects of a dangerous future. The policy emphasizes domestic economic recovery, protects U.S. interests and allies, advances democratic values, and pursues global stability. The study further analyzes the five regions of the scenario to identify military imbalances that could contribute to destabilization and a dangerous world. It then proposes a military strategy to plan for missions ranging from peacetime stability to regional nuclear conflicts.

Long Range Forecasting in the Pentagon, Helena P. Page. The World Today July-August 1982. Four global security scenarios to 21st century.

BDM Corporation, a Washington based consulting firm with extensive experience in defense research, was commissioned by the Pentagon to look at long-range strategic appraisal which was incorporated into the Joint Chiefs of Staff's official long-range forecast of 1981. From the perspective of 1981, the Pentagon was experimenting with several new forecasting methodologies, including scenarios, to help look at combinations of worlds and emerging patterns. Because this study combines various patterns and combinations of patterns, these scenarios are of interest, particularly scenario four. Four alternative worlds are described. Scenario 1.) Muted Bi-Polarity: a continuation of the present into the next century, with the main assumption that a strategic balance between the superpowers would be maintained. NATO would be the principle area of political/military concern, and the Soviet Union the principle adversary. The world is characterized by 'muted' conflicts in both political and economic terms. Nuclear proliferation would continue creating conflicts between old and aspiring nuclear powers and between emerging powers of the Third World. Scenario 2.) Super Power Conflict: was conceived as a 'Cold War' environment. In this world, the two superpowers not only increase their antagonism towards one another but they also increase their influence over their allies and throughout the world. Scenario 3.) Super Power Cooperation: a world of super-power co-operation where the policy of détente is successful. In this world, not only were tensions between the two superpowers presumed to have declined, but cooperation in political and economic affairs between the super-powers was hypothesized. The other characteristics of this world were also shaped by this key factor. Scenario 4) Devolution of Power: the devolution of power away from the super-powers toward emerging regional powers. In World D it was assumed that the super-powers would possess declining influence and power in relation to coalitions of nations.

To Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios. Herman Kahn. Greenwood Press, Westport, Conn. 1986, c1965. A scenario of an escalation to crisis.

This classic book is a study of escalation and why a nation might deliberately seek to escalate a crisis. It analyzes a spectrum of international crisis and a selection of mechanisms for dealing with them, along with focusing attention on the use and misuse of escalation tactics and strategies. Provides a "Standard Crisis" scenario that demonstrates how escalation can be conceivably developed and how attempts to arrest a crisis could be interfered with - from real or imagined technical problems, official or unofficial sabotage, defiance or unauthorized behavior, misunderstandings, miscalculation. In the scenario, the scene is Germany from the view of 1967: there is unrest and a precipitating incidence of violence in East Germany or Berlin, followed by a high level of popular agitation with street violence in East Germany. Kahn shows how 19 more incidences unfold, and each incident causes heightened escalation to the point where the U.S. and/or Soviets (now former Soviets) make a large counterforce strike. The author asserts that this scenario is not plausible since the crisis could be stopped at any given point, but it demonstrates that escalation can reach a critical point very quickly.

Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. Joseph S. Nye, Jr. NY: Basic Books, March 1990/307p. Scenarios of the U.S. to the 21st century.

This book provides an analysis of U.S. power toward the end of the century. Four visions of the future of American leadership in the world are sketched. Scenario 1.) Bipolarity: a continuation or restoration of the US-USSR (now former USSR) relationship. Scenario 2.) Multipolarity: the US, Europe, Soviet Union, China, and Japan with similar levels of power. Scenario 3.) Regional Blocs: a world of three large trading blocs. Scenario 4.) Polyarchy: a situation of many communities, spheres of influence, interdependencies, and trans-state loyalties, with no clearly dominant axis of alignment and antagonism and no central steering group.

VI. REGIONS AND NATIONS

Time to Care. A Report for the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies. Marten Lagergren. Translated by Roger G. Tanner. Elmsford NY: Pergamon Press, Jan 1984/286p. A scenario of Sweden to 2006.

In this report for the Swedish Secretariat for Future Studies, the following trends and assumptions were applied to a scenario of the future of Sweden: fragmentation of households in Sweden is increasing, age structure of Sweden will remain the same as in 1981, economic growth will be moderate. In this scenario, Sweden in 2006 will be much like 1984, when this report was written. Relatively limited resources will mean abandoning a number of traditional Swedish attitudes in order to offer both better social care and an improved quality of life. Otherwise, nothing much else changes.

Forecasting Scenarios for South Africa. Heribert Adam and Kogila Moodley, Futures, 25:4, May 1993, 404-413. Three scenarios of the future of South Africa.

From the perspective of 1993, "reluctant reconciliation" was taking shape in South Africa. The "forced marriage" between the National Party and the African National Congress resulted from a balance of forces where neither side can defeat the other. Scenario planning exercises have been applied to South Africa, a country that was beset by anxiety and ideological confusion. Rather than review the scenarios sketched by others, this article selects three courses as played out in other countries and compares South Africa to the models. Scenario 1.) Another Zimbabwe: "South Africa descends into a pseudo-patronage system, with changing clients favoring shifting alliances of expediency. The clientism is characterized by high levels of corruption and little democratic accountability. South Africa would resemble the 'authoritarianism populism' of many Africa states, particularly Zimbabwe, where the white minority remains economically privileged and oils a kleptocracy in which an indigenous black bourgeoisie dominates the political scene exclusively in the name of a victorious libertarian struggle." Scenario 2.) Another Yugoslavia: "If black youths turn away from the liberal, compromising ANC, or, if white right-wingers declare an independent Boerestaat that cannot be militarily defeated, or if Natal secedes under the banner of Zulu nationalism, then South Africa could disintegrate along racial an communal lines. The escalating violence and economic collapse could lead to an unraveling of the state, as in Yugoslavia, which has stunned the world by its regression into ferocious nationalism and chauvinism, long thought to have been laid to rest by the defeat of fascism and the rise of civilized modernity." Scenario 3.) Another Germany: "The most rational and also the most likely scenario for South Africa is a social-democratic pact between business, labour and key state bureaucracies, as practiced in postwar Germany. This pact would involve genuine co-determination in the private sector and negotiated wage constraints and limited price increases in order to make South Africa competitive in the world market and raise productivity. In return for the state's social investment in education, health, and housing, unions would abandon antagonistic labour relations and class warfare."

A Future South Africa: Visions, Strategies, and Realities. Edited by Peter L. Berger and Bobby Godsell. Boulder Co: Westview Press, March 1989/344p. Three South Africa scenarios to the 21st century.

An interesting book written in 1989 that brings together the visions of the future of South Africa by key actors within the country , the U.S., and the world. Special focus on economic issues. Most notable is the second of two forecasts that came out of this scenario work listed below. Scenario 1.) Present economic and political order is maintained by determined resistance to internal and international pressures. The ultraright-wing group favors the siege economy strategy, trying to re-establish a greater separation between politics and economics. This strong conservative group tries to share only limited economic and political resources to the black community, and resists international and internal pressure for a radical change. Scenario 2.) The free marketeers and democratic socialists negotiate a settlement that brings the economic system within range of a libertarian vision, and closer to people's total control over their policy and economy. Scenario 3.) Liberation of the economy is achieved only by the destruction of the structures of economic and political domination . Both scenarios 2) and 3) can be achieved with a combination of political democracy and a redistribution of resources, through social investment financed by economic growth. In such a case, the following two outcomes are forecasted: 1.) The government maintains power in spite of its attempt at negotiation. 2.) The realization of the useless conflict for nothing by people, leads to a political and economic compromise after difficult negotiations.

The World and South Africa in the 1990s. Clem Sunter , Cape Town, South Africa: Human & Rousseau Ltd/ Tafelberg Publishers, 1987/111p. Four global scenarios and two South Africa scenarios to the 21st century.

This book is divided between a discussion of global scenarios and South African scenarios. Sunter begins with a discussion of the future "Rules of the Game" about the rich old millions (triad of North America, Japan, Western Europe), verses the poor young billions of the Non-Triad rest of the world - Africa - the swamp of the pit, AIDS, new technologies, more practical governments, favorable values forming, trains of nations that are the "winners" in the future, education, and a profile of world class successful companies. Sunter then outlines global scenarios and the world economy with an analysis of key uncertainties driving the future: whether there would be a continuing arms race or detente between USSR (now former USSR) and US and whether there will be trade conflict between the US and Japan. Scenario 1.) Imperial Twilight: US seeks accommodation with Japan but runs a continuing arms race with Russia . Here, the two superpowers diminish in economic significance, not through war, but by the sheer amount of resources it takes to sustain the arms race. Scenario 2.) Trade War and Arms Race: this was pegged by the author as most unlikely, where the US takes on both Japan in a trade war and the Russians in an arms race. Scenario 3.) Protracted Transition: there is détente between the US and Russia, but a trade conflict between the US and Japan. A full transition to the new technologies is pushed out into the next century through protectionism, and in the interim the world economy malfunctions. Scenario 4.) Industrial Renaissance: is where sense prevails on all sides - in the military dimension between the US and Russia and in the economic dimension between the US and Japan. Both gates are open. The world is transformed by new technologies. After a discussion of South Africa's economy, the author poses two plausible South African scenarios within the context of the global scenarios. Scenario 1.) The High Road: a solid cross-section of people who are willing to put themselves on the line and convince other nations that South Africa have moved and is moving in the right direction, to a negotiated future so that sanctions can be lessened. There is small government (not weak government), and is the servant of the people. Scenario 2.) The Low Road: sanctions increase because the future is imposed. The economy becomes more controlled, with import controls, foreign exchange controls, etc. Government becomes more centralized and bigger, just when it should be less centralized and smaller.

A Scenario for Change: The Case for Strong Action Against Pretoria Anthony Sampson, Newsweek, 28 July 1986, p. 32. A scenario of South Africa in peaceful transition.

Written from the view of 1986, this scenario was magnificently on-target for what would eventually unfold over the next ten years. According to Samson, the scenario of a peaceful transition in South Africa would include these elements: 1 - "immediate sanctions imposed in the most sensitive areas by the Western nations; 2 - the deepening economic crisis gives leverage to Western governments; Pretoria accepts Western terms for financial support which include releasing Nelson Mandela and legalizing the ANC; 3 - President Botha retires, and a successor is elected who is prepared to compromise; 4 - Mandela is released from prison, and appeals to South American nonracial patriotism; 5 - Parliament realigns, with a centrist party committed to a national convention; the ANC suspends violence and supports measures against black and white extremists ; 6 - a massive reconstruction plan is launched by a consortium of international bankers; 7 - in the 1990s , the first elections under universal suffrage support President Mandela's multiracial party backed by big business. Samson concludes that this scenario depends on Mandela, who has the unique ability to defuse an otherwise uncontrollable crisis."
 
 African Futures Scenarios. African Futures Project in collaboration with The Milennium Project, sketched in preparation for the UNDP/African Futures 2025 session at the UN. Four scenarios of Africa to 2025.

The scenarios were also linked to strategy by a panel of experts. Scenario 1.) Why Not African Success? African countries succeed. Population growth is generally low and world economic development is favorable. Employment is high. Governments move toward democracy and stability and tribal conflicts are minimal, creating an upbeat atmosphere for business. University collaboration improves natural resources management increasing agricultural productivity and public health. Direct foreign investment in Africa grows. Technology plays a particularly important role. Scenario 2.) Recolonization: African countries have great difficulties in overcoming problems of development. Population growth in Africa is generally high and world economic development is slow. Unemployment abounds. Governments do not move toward democracy and stability and tribal conflicts persist, creating a dismal and risky atmosphere for business. Lack of natural resources management reduces agricultural productivity and public health. Starvation increases. Direct foreign investment in Africa is almost non existent. Technology projects are attempted but unintended consequences continue to prove frustrating. Scenario 3.) The Steady Slow Train: African countries improve, but not as dramatically as in the first scenario. Population growth in Africa is generally beginning to decrease and world economic development is moderately favorable. Most governments are democratic and respond to the challenge of closing the development gap. International trade and direct foreign investment is moderate to meager. Advances in technology create substitutes for African products. Scenario 4.) Undefined Priorities: A muddling through scenario where development is generally not as good as in the third scenario, but not as bad as the second scenario. Without national and global vision Africa is not responding to opportunities in the world economy. Democratization falters. Little cooperation exists among African leaders. Population growth remains high. Intermittent tribal conflicts persist, preventing significant direct foreign investment.

The Collapse of Canada? Edited by R. Kent Weaver. Washington: The Brookings Institution, Feb. 1992. Three scenarios of Canada to the 21st century.

Written from the view of 1992, this book examines the complex roots of Canada's constitutional discontent, the options that were being considered at the time, and possible futures for "northern North America." Scenarios of Canada's future are explored with and without a politically sovereign Quebec and the implications for the United States are examined. Although a lot has happened since 1992, these scenarios are useful as an exercise in alternative thinking by comparing projections with actual events. Scenario 1.) Rose Scenario: Canadians agree on a grand package of constitutional reforms that meet the expectations of all the major players in the current struggle. A political accommodation among the contending forces produces significant reforms in the country's political institutions and processes. Scenario 2.) Mushy Middle: the country fails to master the full constitutional agenda, but federal and provincial governments agree to a modest set of changes and commit themselves to continuing rounds of negotiations over a list of remaining items. Scenario 3.) Independent Quebec: failure to agree on core issues, together with bitterness generated by the negotiating process, undercuts the federalist forces in the province of Quebec. The province is lead toward independence, or the Parti Quebecois would win the next election and initiate the process.

Changing Maps: Governing in a World of Rapid Change. Steven A. Rosell. Ottawa: Carleton U Press 1995/253p. Four scenarios of Canada in 2005.

This book is the result of an effort by a roundtable of 22 senior Canadian public Servants and private-sector executives addressing the issue of governance in a rapidly changing world. To help construct shared maps, four scenarios of 2005 were elaborated with the help of Kees van der Heijden, former head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch Shell. Scenario 1.) Starship Scenario: "booming economy coupled with a new social consensus; institutions and individuals begin to realize the full potential of the new IT; global information flows are liberalized and they increase; governments establish standards to facilitate interconnection." Scenario 2.) Titanic Scenario: "a world of low or no economic growth coupled with growing social fragmentation; the information economy does not produce nearly enough high paying jobs to replace those being lost; governments keep waiting for a recovery that never comes and industry under-invests in innovation; capital flight grows and unrest and violence increase; extremist groups gain adherents; families and neighborhoods fragment or withdraw behind walls." Scenario 3.) HMS Bounty Scenario: "a booming economy combined with growing social fragmentation; growing polarization between those who participate in the global information economy and those who cannot; government policies serve the knowledge elite; elites try to insulate themselves from increasing poverty." Scenario 4.) Windjammer Scenario: "a new social consensus around a low or no-growth economy oriented toward fairness and sustainability; policies foster a more equitable distribution of income, community-based economic development, telework, and strengthening the social fabric; Canada leads in fostering sustainable strategies worldwide and in strengthening international institutions." Future Survey Annual 1995.

The United States in 2044, Gordon L. Anderson. Article from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. Two U.S. scenarios to 2044.

This chapter provides two scenarios on the future of the United States, reflecting the extreme ends of a range of possibilities. Scenario 1.) Pessimistic Scenario: derived from a continuation of several trends: distrust in government, have have-not gap, high technology. It is a society in which democracy is broken down and the powerful few control high technology and rule the weak masses, who have little hope for advancement. The increased investment in industrial production outside of the United States will lead to greater wealth for the owners of global corporations, but fewer jobs. Gangs rule. Pollution goes unregulated. Scenario 2.) Optimistic Scenario: this scenario is driven by America's response to the education crisis and the German pattern of a reduced work week. It sees equality of opportunity, education, and prosperity for all people. There will be a high amount of leisure time and a shift from acquisition of basic goods to a higher quality of life. Crime decreases, and there is a cleaner, safer environment. Democracy in a post-industrial age requires highly educated and capable masses to function well.

2044: A View from Guatemala, Armando De la Torre. Article from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. Two Guatemala scenarios to 2044.

De la Torre writes an optimistic scenario of Central America surpassing the one hundred million inhabitant's mark by 2044, at a demographic growth rate of a little below the actual average of 2.9 per year. The process of social and economic integration advances enough so that the region will "speak with only one voice in the international political arena." Guatemala continues to be a center of gravity in the region. A pessimistic scenario maintains that the amplification of the gap between the developed and developing world is very real and there is a likelihood of continued environmental degradation, corruption, and cultural backwardness. An optimistic scenario contends that Guatemala is able to surpass the development gap, or at least lessen it by being an effective player in a global market of free trade.
 

The Vision for Singapore: A Developed Country in the First League. Internet file:///B!/SEPLAN.HTM. The Strategic Economic Plan Towards a Developed Nation. Executive Summary. Singapore scenarios to 2030.

Normative vision for the future of Singapore. Driving forces include enhanced human resources, increased national teamwork, international focus, innovation, manufacturing and service clusters, economic redevelopment, international competitiveness, and reduced vulnerability. Two projections of future GNP growth: optimistic (high growth) and pessimistic (moderate growth).

China in the 21st Century: Long-Term Global Implications. OECD Forum for the Future: Main Issues and Summary of the Discussions of a Conference held on 8-9 January 1996 in Paris. Three scenarios of China to 2010.

An OECD conference, "Forum for the Future" involved discussion of trends and scenarios of the future of China. Trends include: China's economic growth, increasing exports, integration into the world economy, internal growing pains. Critical uncertainties: external environment, handling of reform process and structural challenges (infrastructure, technological/educational, environment, institutions). Scenario 1.) High Growth: China experiences a strengthening market economy and economic reforms. Favorable external economic and political factors are described. A favorable external environment helps China's economy. Scenario 2.) Growth Stalls: the stalling of domestic economic reforms and international reaction to Chinese invasion of foreign markets causes growth in China to stall. Scenario 3.) Mixed Success: China experiences a favorable external environment but difficulties in domestic reform hinders progress while progress on the world landscape is made.

China Scenarios. Hyperforum scenario pages authored by the Global Scenario Group and designed by Maggie Powell. World Resources Institute. Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology, http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf. Five scenarios of China to 2030.

Scenarios resulting in the Global Scenario Group's study of the future of China. Trends/Assumptions Impacting All Scenarios: population growth in China continues, rapid industrialization of the Chinese (and global) economy, significant environmental damage from population and industrial growth, increasing disparities in income and lifestyle within China. Scenario 1.) Revolt of the Urban Masses: urban turmoil and spreading revolts occur as Chinese economic growth slows. Scenario 2.) The Return of Famine: population growth and a higher standard of living drives up the demand for imported food, which gradually absorbs the world's excess food production. When global climate changes result in shifting rainfall patterns, China's ability to feed itself is reduced. Internal conflicts over food result in social and political turmoil. Scenario 3.) Loss of Control: central control is weakened, resulting in population growth exploding. Economic, environmental and political instability occurs. Civil war is narrowly averted, but China's economic development stagnates as the nation is forced to deal with rapid population growth. Scenario 4.) The Siberian Excursion: the military gains political control in China early in the 21st century. A policy of expansion into Russian territory in Siberia is initiated. A militarily and economically weak Russia is unable to resist at first, but after a lengthy military buildup, Russia is able to counter-attack and drive the Chinese from the Siberian territories. The Chinese economy stagnates as a result of the defeat. Scenario 5.) The Siberian Excursion: sharp increases in oil prices in the early 21st century result in heavy Chinese spending on R&D for solar cell technology. By 2025 China becomes a world leader in the technology and is able to supply environmentally-friendly energy to its growing industrial economy. At the same time, genetic engineering of food crops solves the problem of providing food for a burgeoning population.

The Middle Path for the Future of Thailand: Technology in Harmony with Culture and Environment. Sippanondha Ketudat, Honolulu: East-West Center & Chiang Mai, Thailand: Chiang Mai U, Dec 1990/161p. Three Scenarios of Thailand to 2020.

This study provides an analyses of the future of Thailand with an emphasis on population growth. Scenario 1.) Optimistic Scenario: the population of Thailand reaches 75 million in 2020. Industrialization occurs via appropriate technology and non-renewable energy (so that depleted forests are renewed); there is improved public transportation and public access to information technology and a decline in hierarchical rigidity. Scenario 2.) Pessimistic Scenario: the population of Thailand reaches 85 million in 2020. Efforts to encourage industry outside urban centers fail. Export prices drop. Refugees pour in as Bangkok sinks below sea level due to the over-pumping of ground water. Social and value structures implode. Scenario 3.) Most Probable Scenario: the population of Thailand reaches between 75 and 85 million in 2020. Infrastructure, education, and healthcare improves, but the environmental damage is great.

Thai Society in the 21st Century: The Quest for Well-Balanced Development and Peace. Weerayudh Wichiarajote. Article from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. ISBN 0-943852-49-8. A scenario of Thailand to 2044.

In the present decade of the 1990s, Thailand hopes to reach the goal of being one of the Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs), in the same category with the four Asian "Tigers," namely, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. Thailand's development scenario for 2044 was shaped by mega-trends depicted by John Naisbitt: a booming global economy, renaissance in the arts, emergence of free-market socialism, global lifestyles and cultural nationalism, privatization of the welfare state, rise of the Pacific Rim, decade of women in leadership, age of biology, religious revival of the New Millennium, triumph of the individual. A scenario on the future of Thailand shows that it will be dramatically shaped by multiforces arising from social change which has been taking place intensely within a relatively short period of time.

Australia in 2044, Ivor F. Vivian, Alan Barcan, and Patrick O'Flaherty. Article from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. Australia scenario to 2044.

The author traces the historical background of Australia, then surveys Australia in the year 2044 by examining immigration, cultural and ethnic projections, education, the family, economic development, religion and spiritual life, the environment, technology options. Immigration problems are foreseen, and the resulting ethnic communities will be aging, as will the general population. Hence it is likely that a dramatic increase in the number of retirement villages will cater to the special needs of an aging population. This scenario tells the story of a more upbeat, well-educated, second-generation class of Asian Australians excelling at schools and universities, and having an impact upon the "less motivated, easy going Europeans." Asian Australians will take more top jobs in the community.
 

Britain 2013, Peter Hall, New Society , 18 Dec 1987, 39-41. Scenario of Great Britain to 2013.

Scenario of the future of Great Britain. Key trends include: aging population, increasing health and longevity, inexpensive energy, mag-lev transportation, dispersed population, space mining and manufacturing. In the scenario, Britain becomes the first postindustrial society as the service sector dominates the economy and the manufacturing and agricultural sectors decline to miniscule proportions, with 90% of the labor force in service industries and 30% unemployed. Britain has entered the age of the "Aupie" (aging urban professional).

The Case for Jordan. Subhi Qasem. Article from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. Jordan scenarios to the 21st century.

In A Case for Jordan, Qasem describes two scenarios of the future of Jordan to the 21st century. The scenarios are driven by the following key trends: increasing population due to natural growth and waves of Palestinian emigrants seeking refuge as they were denied the return to their homeland. Scenario 1.) Continuity of Status Quo: under this scenario the present conditions and development will persist with minor variations to produce basic changes. Scenario 2.) Positive Changes with some Breakthroughs in some Areas: under this scenario, conditions in the Arab countries improve in more than one country or subregion The main feature of this world includes the diminishing of internal strife and social tensions, opening the way of peace for most Arab countries in the year 2000. Arab countries realize the potential to become global partners in technology development. Scenario 3.) Peace: under this scenario the Arab Countries will overcome their internal and external difficulties and will move into regional cooperation and integration before the end of this century. Peace between Israel and the Arab countries will be concluded (as the Madrid conference appealed for), and more and more Arab countries, including Jordan, will move toward integration with other countries, both economically and politically.

Polish Brainstorming, Maria Golaszewska and Tadeusz Golaszewski. Chapter from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. Poland scenario to 2044.

Scenario of Poland in 2044, including a discussion of religion, art, and philosophy. Trends and events that have unfolded include very important discoveries and inventions that have revolutionized the technical world. These discoveries were stimulated by a total menace to humankind by the second disaster of Chernobyl. "Windless weather made the nuclear cloud float high in the sky and a considerable increase of radiation went unnoticed. It grew slowly and constantly. And both major and minor damage around the globe occurred." This scenario provides an excellent description of events and trends leading to a nuclear plant disaster, and describes the struggle of scientists trying to invent new sources of energy to avoid the building of new nuclear power plants, and to improve the world situation. Solar power was the solution. "An international group of scientists set up the first solar power station in the world … and it started working." Because this discovery was so important for saving mankind from annihilation, Poland offers it to all countries which welcome its use. A few years later, the UN forbade the building of other kinds of power stations and the older nuclear ones closed down.

Norway-the Privileged Corner of Europe? Three Scenarios for Norway Towards the Year 2000 Petter Nore and Terje Osmundsen, Futures, 20:5, Oct. 1988, 568-577. Scenarios of Norway to 2000.

The Norway 2000 scenario project was launched at a time of great uncertainty. There was external uncertainty over what kind of economic, political and technological pressures and opportunities international developments might bring. For Norway, there was internal uncertainty as well. The Norway 2000 project presents a summary of three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Care: is as close as one can get to 'business as usual'. It shows the Norwegian Welfare State continuing to expand, if given the chance. The state increasingly intervenes in the private spheres of life by guaranteeing the care of the old and the very young. Expansion of public provision of old-age institutions, kindergartens and better health care are key elements of the scenario. Scenario 2.) Decay: since the Second World War Norwegian society has been dominated by institutions and values which have been labeled, "the social democratic model." This model has made for peace in the labour market and a positive relationship between political legitimacy and economic development. It is this relationship which crumbles in the Decay Scenario. A virtuous circle is replaced by a vicious circle. Scenario 3.) Business Revitalized: describes how the Norwegian business concept is being revitalized. It shows how a process of institutional renewal and social innovation is instrumental in pulling Norway out of its current difficult situation.

Scenario Planning for Norwgian Oil and Gas, P.R. Stokke, W.K. Ralston, T.A. Boyce and I.H. Wilson Long Range Planning April 1990 Vol. 23. Four scenarios of Norwegian Oil and Gas to the 21st century.

The authors describe a case study of scenario-based decision making to develop a research and development strategy for oil and gas exploration and production. They develop decision-focused scenarios, having established the 'decision-focus' and assessed the dynamics of the external environment. Having identified the strategy alternatives and interpreted the scenarios for R&D implications, a flexible strategy is developed and the process is reviewed. Four scenarios of Norwegian oil and gas are described. Scenario 1.) The Nation's Future is Dominated by the Oil and Gas Economy: characterized by a seller's market, energy dependence, and fragmented technology. "Traditional patterns of industrial and technological development result in continuing energy-dependence; consequently production rebound and OPEC regains dominance. The Country proposes restructuring the economy, but the actions proposed and taken are not sufficent to divert the strong push toward further development of national oil and resources." Scenario 2) Oil and Gas Benefits Lead to a Restructured National Economy: characterized by a seller's market, a restructured economy, and integrated technology. "A more rapid diffusion of new technologies and gradual resolution of budgets and trade deficits result in higher levels of growth worlwide and closer and political and economic relationships among nations. OECD countries continue to maintain a high level of energy dependence, thereby ensuring the return of seller's market. Norway uses technology and national oil and gas revenue for energy resource development and the diversification of the economy." Scenario 3) The country Struggles in Sweden as Model of New Welfare State: the success of Sweden's approach is adopted throughout all of Europe. Its success is based largely on the principle of the right to work ("workfare"), in contrast to other European states' right to income ("welfare"). Scenario 4.) Italy as Model: a dystopic vision of a malfunctioning welfare state, in which populations become masters of self-reliance.

Europe 2000: Twelve Years On and Ten to Go. Peter Hall. University of California at Berkeley, Institute of Urban and Regional Development. May 1991. Working Paper 537. Originally presented to the Svenska Europaklubben, May 31, 1990. A scenario of Europe in 2000.

Europe 2000 is a cumulated study by the European Cultural Foundation that included hundreds of researchers organized in four thematic groups: European agriculture and European countryside, European industrial society, the prospects for Europe's cities, and the evolution of education in Europe. This study focused on the dilemmas between ideological and utopian thinking, sketching a scenario of life in the year 2000. Six key features of a transitional society are described. In this scenario, most of the basic necessities of life, especially energy and other natural resources, are less available and more expensive. Working units, such as workshops and offices, become smaller, and are located within neighborhood communities. These units use technologies quite differently, not as substitutes for labor but as ancillary to work. Most people have many jobs in this world, and barriers of class and sex are overcome. Changes take place in the nature of the economy - mass industrial production need only a few workers, craft production, arts and entertainment, and education are where far more people work. An ecologically responsible agriculture is emphasized, with ex-urbanities combining small-scale farming with craft or service activities. The concentration of European industry has far more of a high-tech production emphasis. This society is a rather serious one -concerned with survival in new situations, and with the pursuit of individual quality in human relations with work, environment, and fellows.

Scenarios for Europe's Cities, Peter Hall Futures February 1986. Three scenarios of Europe to 2000.

This article examines key economic and social restructuring trends of Europe's cities and develops three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Towards a Dual Society? in this scenario, two economic subsystems prevail: the advanced market economy and an underground or black economy (to which far more people belong). Unemployment becomes a permanent phenomenon. Scenario 2.) Towards a Rigidly Hierarchical Society? Economic system's primary goal is to defend rights previously acquired, and this results in stagnation and routine. One group professionalizes and works harder than ever, while the unemployed depend on social welfare. Scenario 3.) Search for Alternatives: the direction of society is reoriented by local, public, and private planning and management that develops and exploits the opportunities and potential offered by an economic dynamic for growth.

Scenarios on Economic and Social Cohesion in Europe, Emilio Fontela and Anders Hingel, Futures, 25:2, March 1993, 139-154. Three scenarios of European institutions.

Three alternative paths are examined for the European institutional context: Scenario 1.) Conventional Wisdom: full completion of the single European market in the 1990s, with free movement of capital stimulating investment and competitiveness and reducing transaction costs. Scenario 2.) Deepening: additional impulses toward a united Europe such as converging economic policies, fixed exchange rates followed by a single currency, binding norms for protecting working conditions and welfare payments, and a European federal state. Scenario 3.) Widening: adding EFTA countries and/or some Mediterranean countries (Turkey, Morocco) and some countries from Eastern and Central Europe.

Alternative Scenarios for Central Europe Hans van Zon, Futures, 24:5, June 1992, 471-482. Four scenarios of Central Europe to 2012.

Alternative scenarios for Central Europe, i.e. Hungary, Czechoslovakia (now Check Republic), and Poland, are discussed within a national and an international context. This article shows how the various dimensions of change in Central Europe are closely inter-linked. Scenario 1.) Laissez-Faire/Capitalist Path: the driving force is the wish to create favorable conditions for free enterprise and all other considerations are secondary. The plan is to attempt to introduce a system of markets, as quickly as possible, with priority for the introduction of a convertible currency, the rapid liberalization of foreign trade, the selling of all state enterprises and the organization of the retreat of the state from public life. Scenario 2.) Populist-Authoritarian Scenarios: the government strives towards the introduction of a market economy but to a high degree secluded from the world market. The social basis of the regime is a weak national bourgeoisie possibly supported by the army. Nationalism is the ideological basis of the government. Scenario 3.) Leaning-Upon-the-West: a weak government predominates, leaning heavily upon the recommendations of the EC and various Western institutions like the IMF and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The policy is to opt for a membership as soon as possible. Scenario 4.) Sustainable Development: the option of a broadly defined well-being of future generations is kept in mind. This means that the aim of a clean-up of the natural environment is high on the policy agenda. It means a high priority for restructuring industry and getting rid of obsolete and polluting production layouts. The necessity of social and political cohesion, the need for solidarity between social groups is recognized. Scenario 5.) Muddling On: government policies continuously change. In this scenario reform policies are half-hearted and progress towards a market economy is very slow and irregular. There is continuous political instability. There are no parties to form a durable coalition. The old bureaucracy remains powerful and retains its parasitic character. This scenario means a gradual disintegration, full of crisis situations.

Anticipating the Futures: Asia-Pacific Region, Yogesh Atal, Futures Research Quarterly, 4:4, Winter 1988, 15-27. Asia-Pacific scenarios to 21st century.

UNESCO had been promoting a major project: Reflection on World Problems and Future Oriented Studies in various regions of the world. For the Asia Pacific, one of four projects included regional scenarios of the future in specific areas such as communications, education, economics, women, youth, environment, sci/tech. See article for more detail

Building Scenarios for Education in South-East Asia Pacita I. Habana Futures November 1993. 25 no 9. Three scenarios of education to 2015.

This UNESCO-funded project entitled "A Scenario for Education in the Year 2015 in South-east Asia" was initiated for the purpose of strengthening the proactive aspect of educational planning in South-east Asia. This report describes how the Delphi study, the QUEST - or quick environmental scanning technique - and the review panel of experts meeting were used as strategies for scenario building. The driving forces were assessed along with five factors to consider on a regional level within the next 20 years: history & culture, environment, economic industrial devlopment, major trends, and outstanding problems. Broad guidelines for building three scenarios of the future of education in South-east Asia were provided for the scenario teams. Guideline to Scenario 1.) Downbeat Scenario: negative assumptions, problems growing - powerful sense of deterioration, structures under greater stress, use problems from Delphi. Guideline to Scenario 2.) Middle-of-the-Road: status quo prevails (no major breakthroughs), existing problems and contradictions continue, no major changes, driving forces are incremental, not rapid. Guideline to Scenario 3.) Upbeat Scenario: positive assumptions, problems being resolved, positive drivers - enhanced cultural, economic and social development, use positive items from Delphi.

The Futures of South Asia (Special Issue). Edited by Sohail Inayatullah (Honolulu). Futures, 24:9, Nov 1992, 851-955. Five Pakistan scenarios to the 21st century.

A collection of essays on the future of South Asia, with five alternative futures for Pakistan. Scenario 1.) Disciplined Capitalist Society: Pakistan becomes very disciplined as a strong military and strong civil service create conditions for a capitalist society. Scenario 2.) Islamic Socialism: the state manages to control the economy but gives cultural life its autonomy; the state respects the personal lives of the citizenry. Scenario 3.) Return of the Ideal: Pakistan becomes an ideal Islamic religious state. Scenario 4.) End of sovereignty: this is a scenario of military intervention by India and the cultural dominance of the U.S. Scenario 5.) No Change: a "base case" continuation scenario of economic and cultural malaise. For Pakistan to find purpose and identity, Inayatullah thinks that it must accept differences, decentralize power, and plan for the future.

The Future of the Pacific Rim: Scenarios for Regional Cooperation. Edited by Barbara K. Bundy, Stephen D. Burns, and Kimberly V. Weichel. Westport CT: Praeger, Oct. 1994/263p. Three scenarios of the Pacific Rim to the 21st century.

This includes three scenarios of the Pacific Rim offered by Peter Schwartz and Stephen Cass of Global Business Network. Scenario 1.) A Regionally Integrated Asia Pacific: in this scenario, "the dominant driving forces of the overseas Chinese networks and growing intra regional trade and capital flows combine in an open global economic environment to produce a remarkably high-growth, highly integrated Asia Pacific. Globally, regional trading blocs such as NAFTA and the EC resist protectionist pressures and become "building blocs" to an even more integrated global economy." Scenario 2.) A Sub Regionally Integrated Asia Pacific: "given the highly diverse levels of economic development throughout the Asia Pacific, it may be that Asia rejects regional integration for a more localized approach to development and cooperation. In this world, Asia develops into four subregions." Scenario 3.) Disintegrating Asia: this is a future in which "Asia fails to manage the challenges of success in an increasingly protectionist world economy. The Asia Pacific economy slows as the challenges of growth-workforce creation, overcentralization/urbanization, energy bottlenecks, and environmental degradation - are not dealt with effectively and become constraints to sustained growth."

The Information Society in Bulgaria, Anna Krasteva Futures 24:2 March 1992 , 130-137. Two scenarios of Bulgaria to the 21st century.

Informatization has proved to be one of the most radical changes in the late 20th century. It is characterized by the emergence of considerable manpower devoted to the production, processing, storing and dissemination of information and related to the mass advent of information technologies. For Bulgaria, two scenarios for the development of "informatization" in the transition period to democracy are presented. Scenario 1.) A Probable Scenario: in this scenario, informatization drops out of state priorities for at least 10 years or so; the information industry will hit hard times. Informatization is seriously affected by Bulgaria's "brain drain." Scenario 2.) A Desirable Scenario: the state plays a key role in the socioeconomy and informatization becomes one of it's priorities. Together with the imminent tasks on overcoming the economic crisis, medium-term and long-term strategies should be drawn up where new technologies are to be allotted a significant place as a factor promoting economic growth.

Will a United Italy Survive Until 2010? Antonio Martelli Futures Research Quarterly, 11:1 Spring 1995, 61-78. Three scenarios of Europe, and three scenarios of Italy to 2010.

The evolution of European integration as well as Italy's internal development is a major factor influencing the maintenance or dissolution of Italian unity. Three scenarios up to 2010 are made for Europe. Scenario 1.) Greater Europe: EC becomes successful in monetary union, economic policy, defense system, and foreign policy, with more participants such as East European countries, and the former Soviet Republics, strengthening economic and political ties. Europe enjoys economic growth. Scenario 2.) Little Europe: only limited progress is made toward European integration; a few more countries participate in the EC but there is on the overall, stagnation in Europe. Very little technical and economic development. Scenario 3.) Many Europes: European disintegration by 2000, with regionalization within Europe and an overall decline of Europe.

Three scenarios for Italy are then examined to integrate each European scenario. Scenario 1.) Integration: National identity is realized and unity is restored, possibly evolving towards a federal government. Scenario 2.) Marginalization: national identity and unity are too weak for Italy to be included in Europe or at least to be a major actor there. Marginalization becomes official; Italy declines to have some characteristics of a developing country. Scenario 3.) Disintegration: The differences between North and South splits into two or more parts to avoid isolation from Europe. Two probable developments are suggested: 1. - The Greater Europe alternative would benefit Italy's integration, especially if reforms takes place to recognize local differences and to avoid polarization. 2. - Without substantial reforms, by 2010, probably a split of the country will have taken place and the North will have organized its own state and emphasized distinct national characteristics, favored by the Little Europe, or the Many Europes' alternative.
 
 Malaysia: Telecommunications Scenario: Vision 2020 The Malaysia Rising Star Planning Group. Internet: http://www.ackl.com.my/msia/economy/telecom.html#scene. A Malaysia telecommunications scenario to 2020.

Telecommunications Vision 2020: A scenario of telecommunications to 2020: "As Malaysia becomes more industrialized, the higher per capital income will lead to a greater use of technology-based products. The possibility of tele-working by accessing information at the workplace from home terminals will become an attractive alternative." This scenario examines the worklife in Malaysia, and includes a vision that would see Malaysia reach the status of a fully developed nation by 2020. Telecommunications technology and the deregulation and privatization of the telecommunications industry are important components of that development plan.

Anticipating Applications for Digital Video Communications: Two Scenarios for Australia by Tony Stevenson and June Lennie Http://teloz.latrobe.edu.au/circit/wk0 1 rpt.html. Two Australia scenarios to the 21st century.

This paper advocates that Australia adopt a collaborative, co-evolutionary approach to anticipating the appropriate forms and uses for digital video communications (DVC), particularly for interactive communication. It argues that the social and cultural implications of this technology need to be considered before it is introduced, to avoid problems such as inequitable access and increased control by powerful institutions and individuals. These issues are discussed in the context of the trend towards visualization and convergence, and the wide range of DVC applications suggested by Japanese examples. Two likely future scenarios for Australia are compared. Scenario 1.) The Conventional Age - a technology-driven future based on consumerism and economic rationalism. Scenario 2.) The Communicative Age - an interactive, co-evolutionary future which emphasizes human and social concerns and is grounded in an ecologically sustainable social-economic system. An interactive communication process involving people from diverse backgrounds is recommended to lead Australia to this co-evolutionary future through strategic cooperation with Northeast Asia.

Three Scenarios for Mexico's Future Salvador Galico (Mexico City), The Futurist, 23:4, July-Aug 1989, 17-19. Three scenarios of Mexico to the 21st century.

Mexico will undergo many upheavals and changes as it enters into the 21st century. From the perspective of 1989, this article presents three scenarios and as a unique feature, assigns probabilities. Scenario 1.) Real Progress: "a 20% likelihood of improved government efficiency, reduced crime, agricultural reform with substantially increased food production, growing tourism, and erased foreign debt." Scenario 2.) Populist Revolution: "a 30% chance of populists regaining power by PRI accommodation or insurrection, leading to abandonment of economic reforms and chaos." Scenario 3.) Recycling of the Crisis: "a 50% probability of only marginal economic improvement, no significant reduction of the bureaucracy, and more stagnation." Future Survey Annual 1989.

America Remains No 1 Ronald Steel, New York Times Magazine, Sept 29, 1996. A scenario of the U.S. to the year 2000.

This article presents a scenario of the U.S., and is global in scope. In this world, democracy triumphs throughout the world, but can also generate demagoguery and anarchy. China will be the next superpower even though it is burdened with many problems - population growth, little arable land, large migration to cities, conflict between capital and province and industrial and agricultural regions - these problems are great threats to China, and it may take well over a long span of time to solve them. Wealth gaps continue to grow and become concentrated. The nation-state withers away when everyone is joined together by a common language and worships the same "god of commerce." Although nations merge their economies, they will not give up their national identities. The US will not decline. Who is going to challenge the US? Japan is dependent on imported resources and foreign markets. China is a demographic disaster. India verges on explosion and anarchy. Brazil will never be more than a "big contentious shopping mall," and Russia will always be a phantom giant.

A Perspective on the American Future: The US in 2025. Hyperforum scenario pages authored by the Global Scenario Group and designed by Maggie Powell. California Institute of Technology. Http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf. A scenario of the U.S. to 2025.

A growing American population is divided by a severe gap between affluent and poor. As a result, crime, ghettos, and the ill-educated underclass grow. Americans are no longer one people and the nation increasingly accepts neo-facism and anti-democratic ideas. The natural environment is seriously damaged as a result of population and economic growth. Large-scale immigration from Asia and Latin America results in greater social and political tension, as well as a shift in political power. America continues as a world economic leader because of its lead in technology, although competition from Asia and Latin America is increasing. A realignment in international relations is significantly diminishing the role of American international leadership. By 2050 American control of its destiny has slipped from its hands and is shaped by global events.

On the Future of Settlement Structures, Gerhard Stiens Futures, February 1986. Three scenarios of Germany
to 2000.

This article describes scenarios on spatial developments in the Federal Republic of Germany. It includes key trends of rising agglomeration and suburbanization. Scenario 1.) Concentration Processes and State-Managed Equalization: envisions a concentration of power in the economy and state as prosperity and welfare depend on quantitative growth. The central government attempts to limit spatial concentration with decentralization policies. Scenario 2.) Spatial Balance through Moderated Market Forces: witnesses spatially balanced development via the market without much government intervention. Scenario 3.) Decentralization in the Course of Trends towards Social Autonomy: witnesses a belief that large-scale structures and technologies are not able to solve social, economic, and ecological problems. There is a reduction of scale and decentralization of types of organizations.

Democracy, Markets, and Structural Reform in Latin America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Edited by William C. Smith, Transactions Publishers, New Brunswick NJ, Dec. 1993/331p. Four scenarios of Latin America to the 21st century.

Latin America is in the midst of historical change. From the perspective of 1993, several possible scenarios for Latin America are described. Scenario 1) Organic Crisis Revisited: "government failure in restructuring the economy, regressive redistribution in the context of a stagnant or declining national income base, an increasingly critical external debt crisis, threat of authoritarian regression." Scenario 2.) Fragmented and Exclusionary Democracy with Neoliberal Economics: "maintenance of a majoritarian political coalition, reduction of external debt renegotiated, many state enterprises become private monopolies." Scenario 3.) Inclusionary Democracy: "a trajectory of democratic deepening, involving closely related and long-term transformations that point toward state reform, strengthening collective actors, reforms of parliamentary mechanisms, expansion of citizen rights, and more just and equitable outcomes." Scenario 4.) Dual Democratic Regimes: "state elites establish an alliance with a strategic minority of the opposition so as to exclude the majority of remaining social actors; economic performance less dynamic than under #2 or # 3. Concludes that #4 is the most probable scenario for most Latin American societies, and #3 is second most probable for Argentina, Mexico, and Venezuela."

Russia 2010 - And What if Means for the World. Daniel Yergin and Thane Gustafson, NY: Random House, Oct. 1993/300p. Four scenarios of Russia to the 21st century.

Four scenarios suggested for Russia. Scenario 1.) Muddling Down: "an extension of the present unwinding of the Soviet state, with weak central government, fierce competition for money and power, a relatively free atmosphere, a growing private sector still lacking a regulatory and legal structure, and fertile ground for the Red-Browns." Scenario 2.) Two-Headed Eagle: "reassertion of power by a central government based on the army, the police, defense industrialists, and industrial managers; much pent-up resentment among workers who feel cheated at the withdrawn promise of ownership." Scenario 3.) The Time of Troubles: "a family of chaos and reaction scenarios ranging from The Long GoodBye (the regions continuing to drift off in their own directions, with St. Petersburg becoming a free economic zone) to The Russian Bear ( an anti-Western but non-Marxist authoritarian regime defends the Russian Nation)." Scenario 4.) Chudo or Miracle: "the basis for a Russian economic miracle could come from using existing supplies in more efficient ways and producing goods that people want; the right political setting must steer a course between a strong state and continuing paralysis."

Scenarios for the Industrialization of the Western Mediterranean, Teresa Rojo, Futures, 26:5, June 1994, 467- 489. Three scenarios of the Western Mediterranean to 2000.

Alternative paths presented for the Western Mediterranean region: Scenario 1.) On Their Own and Divided: extension of the present tight population/resource balance, strong propensity to a war economy and police state, birth rates remain high, women remain homebound, pollution and poverty increase, coastal urban areas continue to grow, minimal cooperation. Scenario 2.) Maghreb Community: gradual development of unity, stability attracts investment, employment increases in a growing market-based economy, cooperative projects in infrastructure modernization. Scenario 3.) Euro-Maghreb Cooperation: a Maghreb regional market and EC involvement, a common Euro-Maghreb geotechnical project, strong efforts to develop renewable resource technologies. There are no indications of developing regional cooperation, and stronger Maghreb ties.

VII. INTEGRATION AND WHOLE FUTURES

The 2025 Report: A Concise History of the Future, 1975-2025. Norman Macrae, NY: Macmillan, Dec 1984/255p. A global scenario to 2025.

A scenario of global society in the year 2025. The world is upbeat and well off as a result of high technology - telecommunications, biotechnology and genetic engineering - that solves the problems of global communications, food, energy shortages, and human health. The political systems of the 20th century have withered away and are replaced by a decentralized, community-based democracy. Economic interaction is the primary governing force - health maintenance organizations are paid to keep people healthy, competitive crime prevention corporations are paid on the basis of their performance in keeping convicted criminals from committing further offenses, and international taxation keeps the rich from fleeing to tax havens.

Worlds Apart: Technology and North-South Relations in the Global Economy. Sam Cole and Ian Miles, Brighton UK: Harvester Press/Wheatsheaf Books and Totown NJ: Rowman & Allanheld, Oct. 1984/283p. Three global scenarios to 2000.

Cole and Miles in their study of North-South relations in the global economy, included three scenarios of the world in the year 2000. Scenario 1.) Liberal Economic Order: a few hundred multinational corporations will dominate most major sectors of the world's economy, while individual nation states have lost control of transnational corporations. Scenario 2.) Reformed Economic Order: a significant transfer of economic power to the Third World occurs. The result is rapid industrial growth in the Third World and changing patterns of consumption in developed countries. Scenario 3.) Collective Self-Reliance: a number of developing nations decide to work together and throw off the existing structure of economic and international relations, resulting in greater self-reliance.

Art of the Longview. Peter Schwartz, president, Global Business Network. Doubleday Publications 1991. Three global scenarios to 2005.

Peter Schwartz describes the scenario planning technique and it's value to organizational and personal planning. The author describes three scenarios of the world in the year 2005. Trends that drive the scenarios are: shuffling political alignments since the end of the Cold War; technology explosion; global pragmatism - that is, "whatever works" transcends old attitudes about left verses right, or capitalism verses socialism; demographics - aging and immigration; energy; environment. Scenario 1.) New Empires: "in this world, most nations decide to protect their threatened cultural identities and to take control of the pace of change by regionalizing their interests. The tensions between isolationalism and the global economy create 'fateful alliances': multinational power blocs. These are "New Empires" because they take on the qualities of empires. Federated and all-powerful, bureaucratic but decentralized, these superpower-style blocs of countries and corporations grow to dominate the world." Scenario 2.) Market World: "In this scenario, the markets won. This world is entrepreneurial, multicultural, full of hope and harshness. It's as purely capitalistic as an open market, but it's a smart form of capitalism. The major international institutions are not government alliances, but associations: international rule making, standard-setting, conflict resolution and system management groups that collectively form an informal "global commons." Economic intelligence is the organizing principle." Scenario 3.) Change Without Progress: "The dark side of Market World. This is a future of chaos and crisis, in which people see themselves as the Lone Ranger, fighting the system, and the system falls apart. It's a future similar to the world of the movie Blade Runner. Here is a world with fast-paced economic activity, but in which ruthless self-interest and corruption run rampant. Social conflict, a widening gap between those who have made it and those who are permanently locked out, and environmental decay are all commonplace. Economic volatility and a disdain for the welfare of average people color public policy and corporate practice."

Encyclopedia of the Future. Edited by George Thomas Kurian and Graham T.T. Molitor. Macmillan Publishing, 1996. World scenario from 1995 to the Gigafuture: after A.D. 1 billion. Useful to scenario work.

The Encyclopedia of the Future is devoted to articles about the future, spanning a very comprehensive list of subjects. At the end of the Encyclopedia, a Chronology of Futurism and the Future deals with the past and present of futurism by categorizing entries in chronology from 47,000 B.C. - A.D. 1995. (Futurism is a term that covers the study and practice of the future, also termed futurology, futuristics, or futures studies.) Part two contains a chronology of dates and events beginning in 1996 to A.D. 1 billion. This chronology is a scenario of a future history, covering a broad span of events in the economic, ecological, environmental, political, and technological spheres, from 1996 to A.D. 1 billion. For example, in 2015, "Small termitelike robots with nanomachine components lay fiber-optics cables connecting every house and office on Earth, linking everyone together into a vast planetary network for sharing information and doing advanced processing." Another entry for 2020: "The worlds 10 largest cities are: Mexico City 33 million, Sao Paulo 31 million, Bombay 24 million, Calcutta 23 million, Tokyo/Yokohama 22 million, Teheran 21 million, Delhi 21 million, Jakarta 19 million, Dacca 19 million, Karachi 18 million." In the gigafuture, after A.D. 1 billion, there takes place the emergence of a "Seventh or Final Level of Evolution: cosmic mind."

Thinking About the Unthinkable in the 1980s. Herman Kahn, NY: Simon and Schuster, July 1984/250p. Five outbreak scenarios of nuclear war.

In this classic book, Herman Kahn "burst upon the national scene when he said that we had to think seriously about nuclear war and its consequences." It was he, in a sense, who popularized the national nuclear debate. Thinking About the Unthinkable in the 1980s includes five categories of "not implausible" outbreak scenarios provided by order of increasing probability of occurrence: Scenario 1.) Surprise Nuclear Attack, deliberate or inadvertent; Scenario 2.) Early Eruption to nuclear war from an intense crisis, such as an East European crisis, a Persian Gulf disaster, Sino-Soviet war (or crisis), an East Asian crisis, or Soviet Nuclear strike; Scenario 3.) "Classic" U.S. Type II Deterrence: in which the US makes a first strike to defend Western Europe; Scenario 4.) A "Protracted Crisis" that does not get settled but eventually escalates to central nuclear war because of an inadvertent crisis, an erosion of the capabilities of military forces on alert, or escalation to nuclear war from a protracted crisis; Scenario 5.) "Mobilization War" following a crisis or other triggering event, a U.S. mobilization is touched off. Mobilization escalating to full blown nuclear war is examined in one year, two years, three years, and four year intervals.

An International Planning Dialogue to Help Shape the New Global System, William E. Halal Futures Jan-Feb. 1993 v25 n1 p5-17. An advanced approach to examining the global problematique. A 'central scenario' of the world to the 21st century.

World 2000 is a project of the World Future Society that is intended to define the emerging global system and to help shape its information. It accomplishes these goals by attempting to synthesize a number of overviews and insights from many individuals and organizations, and to present them as a 'collaborative planning dialogue' that brings together the rich diversity of views to form a global consensus on how the world may realize a commonly shared vision of the future. Key trends are used to create a composite scenario in which "...The Earth appears to be moving along a fairly well prescribed path of development, which is also seen as akin to a 'natural process' of maturation.". This "central scenario" is taken as a standard future from which other scenarios are defined. The most critical issues cover geopolitics, economics, environmental limits, complexity, and North/South disparities. These critical issues, including disparities, "are exacerbated by one of the most pervasive problems of our time - a collapse of faith in the familiar old world system which guided humans through the past epoch with good success. So the key 'meta-issue' is that of how to respond to the breakdown of the old order, lack of leadership and other social malfunctions. An explicit case is made for a new paradigm, model, story, or belief system that must somehow be formed to allow people to make sense of today's radically different global realities."

Building a Win-Win World: Life Beyond Global Economic Warfare. Hazel Henderson, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, San Francisco, c1996/398p. Useful to scenario work.

Surveys progress towards sustainable forms of development at seven levels: individual, local, governmental, corporate, national, international, and global. Rise of cultural anthropological approaches to studying economies as "sets of rules" derived from the various "cultural DNA codes" of each country. Illustrates how cooperation is balancing competition, and that "rule-making" is as fundamental as "market making" behavior. Shows how economies focused on "win-lose" market competition while game theorists embraced "win-win" cooperative strategies, collective rules, standards now needed to address global problems.

Some chapters from this remarkable book: Chapter 9: "Information: The World's Real Currency Isn't Scarce," describes how money became mistaken for wealth and was cartelized in the global casino, and how the new, pure information currencies (which have always been the world's real currency) are now emerging at the global and local levels. Chapter 10, "Redefining Wealth and Progress: The New Indicators," takes a look behind the statistical veils of economics. It describes how old indicators of economic growth-for example, the gross national product (GNP) - are being overhauled, and how new indicators of quality of life are slowly replacing economic indicators as new scorecards of human development. Chapter 11, "Perfecting Democracy's Tools" describes the importance of the spread of democracies around the world and the urgent need to perfect this still imperfect system of collective decision making and governance, including social and technological innovations waiting in the wings. Chapter 12, "New Markets and New Commons: The Cooperative Advantage": compares and contrasts the strategies of cooperation and competition, of markets and rules/agreements, of public, private, and civil sectors , and how they can all be rebalanced to build a win-win future. Chapter 13, " Agreeing on Rules and Social Innovations for Our Common Future" reviews efforts during the 1990s to forge new international agreements and institutions to create a social architecture suitable for a truly human 21st century.

A Utopian World, Morton A. Kaplan. Article from The World of 2044 - Technological Development and the Future of Society edited by Charles Sheffield, Marceto Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan. Paragon House St. Paul, Minnesota. A world scenario to 2044.

"The world of 2044 turned out to be the utopia that cynics thought was an impossible dream." In this scenario, medical advances had extended life expectancy to 150 years. Gene therapy had eliminated hereditary diseases. Fetuses were carried to term in artificial wombs which played tapes of the parent's physical and emotional patterns. Brain and cognition research could detect failures during post-partum development of the brain circuits responsible for empathy and ethical behavior. These defects could be corrected before the child reached the age of two, with drugs and social responsiveness that helped the child contribute to its own emotional and ethical maturation. Chemicals were available to aid memory and to facilitate learning. Computer games enhance learning. This is a world where children learn philosophical wisdom through expanded and realistic role playing. Government in 2044 is far different. A few problems such as trade or postal exchanges that involve the entire planet required world governments. This supragovernmental unit also had primary responsibility for monitoring and ensuring human and political rights in the smaller units of government.

A Condensed Version of the Next Century, Jeannie Peterson, Ambio, 13:3, 1984, 202-205. Scenario of the world environment in the 21st century.

Collection of essays discussing the need to avoid environmental decline. These essays point out the consequences of the continuation of current trends. These trends are described very vividly and include: population growth leading to a doubling of population within the next century and a growing number of elderly, increasing global warming, uneven food distribution, scarcity of water, mass extinction of plants and animals, increasing environmental damage. This scenario advocates changes in attitude towards environmental issues and different technological choices and energy alternatives.

The Third Millennium. A History of the World: AD 2000-3000. Brian Stableford and David Langford. NY: Knoft, Sept. 1985/224p. A world scenario to 3000.

Two British science fiction writers offer an illustrated history of the future looking back from AD 3000, organized into four time periods - all scenarios. This is an all encompassing book about the history of the world from the year 2000-3000. The authors pose as future historians writing in the year 3000, looking back on the past century. It is a future history in scenario form, replete with photographs and illustrations. The book is divided into four eras. The authors describe the driving forces and dramatic shifts that change the world within each of the four eras. The first era describes a world of War and Peace between 2000-2180; the second era is a world of recovery between 2180-2400, in which there is a functional global economy, control of population, and exploitation of space; the third era is a transformational world between 2400-2650 in which man makes a major leap into space and artificial worlds, and finally, to the creation of a new world between 2650-3000 in which man can prolong a lifetime into seven generations. Interestingly, the authors projected that the world would still be dominated by a bi-polar force, dominated by the Soviet Union and the US in the year 2000, but that the first quarter of the 21st Century would see the end of the arms race between the two superpowers, and ultimately, peace between east and west.

Forced Options: Social Decisions for the 21st Century (Second Edition). Roger Lincoln Shinn, The Pilgrim Press, NY, Oct. 1985/283p. Four global scenarios to 2015.

Four scenarios illustrate our "forced options," meaning, decisions that allow no escape and efforts to avoid them, and are in fact, themselves decisions. Scenario 1.) Technotopia: after the world's near breakdown, the collaboration of the US, Soviet Union, and China imposes a world dictatorship without elimination of the traditional structures of nations, dismantling national armies, stabilizing population at 10 billion people, moderating the economic disparities between rich and poor regions, and using super technology to solve any problems. Scenario 2.) After the Nuclear Holocaust: after a nuclear war in 2015, Europe and the Americas become desolate regions. With low technology and resources, people who survived, mainly on the continent of Africa, become self- sufficient, live in a small society, and go back to the agrarian life, sharing wealth and poverty. Scenario 3.) The Age of Plutonium: in spite of debate over the use of nuclear energy, energy shortage forced the world to go all-out for the nuclear option, with energy produced by some 3000 nuclear parks. Although there is a world wide system in terms of safety, transportation and waste disposal, the fear that the system will become unmanageable is increasing. The new technology has not been able to solve these problems. Scenario 4.) After the Refrev: a combination of reformation and revolution modifies human values and aspirations on an amazing scale at the turn of the century; the human race has reached a peaceful world by large-scale social planning combined with radical decentralization. Different groups of people work together successfully and the world is organized in smaller and relatively self-sufficient units, with less international trade and travel. Energy shortage, renewable energy, moderate consumption, and recycling prevail. The past is considered as miserable, compared with the present.

The New World Disorder, Peter Schwartz, president Global Business Network. WIRED Special Edition 1.01 December 1995. Internet: http://www.gbn.org/Main/Disorder.html. A world scenario to 2015.

As the world enters the second decade of the 21st century, it is divided and in turmoil because of ethnic conflict and the fragmentation of political structures. The European Union, which includes most of Eastern Europe and Russia, is the world's dominant trading bloc in 2012. A second bloc includes most of East Asia, China, North America, and much of Latin America. But in 2013 the U.S. and Japan are expelled from the bloc because of continued political differences with China. A perpetual series of civil wars rage in Central America, but the rest of Latin America is strong economically, socially and politically. A third trading bloc is centered on the Indian Ocean, with its key members being India, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Overall, the region is doing well economically. Regional conflicts, however, occur around the globe as ethnic and religious groups fight each other.

Millennium Project Scenarios, excerpt 1997 State of the Future: Implications for Actions Today. Ted Gordon, Jerome Glenn, Susan Jette, Peter Kennedy, Charles Thomas, Pat Maron. Three global scenarios to 2025.

The Millennium Project scenarios were originally structured through a series of meetings with The Futures Group International at Glastonbury, CT. See this appendix for a more complete version of the scenarios. Scenario 1.) Cybertopia:The explosive growth of Internet accelerated globalization in all forms. Cyberspace became the medium of human activity, as the city had for the industrial transition. With individual access to world education and markets, individuals acted like holding companies investing their time into diverse activities, inventing their careers, granting access to others as nations used to grant visas. Individuals easily switch loyalty from one company to another. Most people had a sense of what they wanted to do and what they had to do to achieve it. Developing countries made remarkable progress via tele-education, tele-medicine, tele-business partners, and tele-citizens in richer areas who assisted their poorer homelands. The division between people is not as much by north-south, but by those who act globally though technology and those who don't. Unfortunately, unemployment- particularly in the cities- is still a problem. The knowledge economy has left some people behind; most of these people are poor. Entitlements seem an archaic concept and the safety nets, such as they are, are thin almost everywhere. Scenario 2.) The Aftermath: While there was still some uncertainty as to the exact cause, most analysts believed that, the fiscal crisis of 1999 was triggered by the siphoning of capital from the international financial flow of funds, deliberately and systematically over a period of ten years. The criminals/terrorists that caused the debacle used the scorched earth policy and destroyed the international databases that could have been used to reconstruct the history of their activities. With that base gone, markets tumbled, trust evaporated, banks failed, fortunes on paper evaporated, the credit industry collapsed, bankruptcies proliferated, and the world endured the deepest and longest depression on record. As we look at the scene today, we see signs of revival. Growth is sporadic. It is the risk takers and the wealthy- people, as well as corporations and nations- that best survived. Working together- that's the slogan. Rules of trading, standards of computer and network security, accounting principles, police oversight, settlement rules- all of these have become the subjects of international standards. Criminal behavior is harshly dealt with. Scenario 3.) Mean World: Jobs are the problem; population growth has outpaced the rate of job creation almost everywhere over the past decade. Most technology doesn't help. In general, technology improves productivity- more output per hour worked- but with jobs scarce most countries need a magic technology that increases output but also increases the number of jobs. This is a mean world because the economic pie has been discovered to be zero sum. Massive unfunded pensions create dangerous liabilities. As a result, protectionism abounds. People are tired and dis-spirited. Crime and corruption are increasing. Attempts to convince people they're better off are greeted with appropriate cynicism world wide. Yet against this background rises the belief in belief. Faith in community, in religion, in the sanctity of the group. But it's largely every group for itself, serving its self-focused interests.

The World in 2010: A Moral and Political Portrait Michael Novak Vital Speeches of the Day, 51:17, 15 June 1985, 538-542. Three global scenarios to 2010.

From the perspective of 1985, three moral and political portraits of the world, whose shape will depend on its geopolitical shape in 2010, are sketched. These scenarios do not fully describe the demise of the Soviet Union, but the Best Hope scenario comes very close to matching the reality of events that occurred only several years later! Scenario 1.) A Worst Fear: the universal submission to Pox Sovietica. The strategic balance shifts to the U.S.S.R. The Soviets have many client states and strong control over lands, air, and sea. Western Europe becomes neutralized. The U.S. becomes defensive. China enters into an unfavorable non-aggression pact with the U.S.S.R. The internal U.S.S.R. becomes more repressive without constraints from Europe and the U.S., and the morale of its officers corps is very high, although its economy is still inefficient and stagnant. People in the world get used to a loss of liberty. Scenario 2.) Best Hope: the great liberalization of the U.S.S.R. The U.S.S.R. moves away from totalitarianism. Free speech in politics, in economics, in individual inventiveness and in culture, is improved with communications technologies. On the overall, this improves the world. A global communications network discards central Soviet government control. The triumph of liberal economics over Marxist economics is achieved as the former is more efficient and brings more human satisfaction. Scenario 3.) A Reasoned Guess: the greatest expansion of Soviet power in the next five years. This attempt is made by inspiring and supporting local revolutionaries, destroying key people, and establishing puppet governments which offer the market for Soviet arms. The moral confusion, intellectual bafflement, and the failure of public unity in the life of the U.S. are some of the driving factors. In this world, U.S. political elites are more responsible for the world's destiny than the U.S.S.R. "Strategic ideas have strategic consequences."

Five Scenarios for the Year 2000. Franco Ferrarotti, Greenwood Press, Westport, CT. Aug. 1986/136p. Five global scenarios to 2000.

In this book, the future of society is hypothesized according to possible "landscapes" corresponding to historical decisions. These scenarios are driven by the following key trends: the crisis of the individual; bureaucracy flourishing; technology spinning out of control; ideologies failing; and the stagnation of society. Scenario 1.) The Anthill Society: characterized by urbanization, overcrowding, widespread criminality, and a loss of meaning. Emergencies in underdeveloped countries are routine, with increasingly strained US granaries called to the rescue. Scenario 2.) Polycentric Society: characterized by the death of the great industrial city and decentralizing to a globally conceived social structure of flexibility and freedom. Scenario 3.) Differentiated Gigantism: in which a technology-driven global tele-village emerges, and leads to a high degree of automation, robotization, and information overload. Scenario 4.) The Corporate Society: characterized as a dichotomous society in the shape of a flattened pyramid, in which a narrow summit prevails over a broad base. New technologically sophisticated elites are at the summit while overpopulation overwhelms those at the bottom (Malthus' revenge). Scenario 5.) Multivalent, Multidimensional Society: this society is decentralized and integrated, and, thanks to technology, homogeneous and communitarian, yet non-conformist. A new oral and group-centered culture emerges alongside technological development.

One World, Many Worlds - Struggles for a Just World Peace. R.B. J. Walker. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Colo. 1988. Zed Books Limited. London, England. Three global scenarios to the 21st century.

Three emerging future scenarios are posited. Scenario 1.) No World: global catastrophe from a general nuclear war or a general collapse of civilization. This comes about because of fundamental social forces that have ecologically destructive practices, or through the encouragement of militarization and institutionalized violence. It can be an authoritarian regime. The world is insecure for all people. This is an obliteration of a human life itself or a life as human on the earth. Scenario 2.) Two Worlds: solution of present world problems for only a limited number of people. The established international order can be interpreted as inequity or just another kind of violence. Economic and technological miracles are only for the people who can participate at a certain level of world society. There is a huge gap between the haves and have-nots, with the complete disappearance of a middle class. Management of environment is limited for profitability and human rights are assured within narrow terms. Weaker people become invisible or ignored and this is worse than a slave who is at least needed by a master. Scenario 3.) One World, Many Worlds: accommodating both unity and diversity

A Short History of the Future. W. Warren Wagar, Afterword by Immanuel Wallerstein. U of Chicago Press, Chicago Ill., Nov. 1989/323p. A world history of the future to 2200.

A memoir of post-modern times in the form of a history book written in 2200 by Peter Jensen as a gift to his granddaughter. "The book is divided into three time periods reflecting three different world regimes: a megacorporate global economy reigning until the "nuclear catastrophe of 2044," the subsequent socialist world commonwealth of the World Party, and a decentralized order of autonomous societies from the 2150s on." Future Survey Annual 1994 Of note is the chapter, The Great Housecleaning , that describes the Planetary Restoration Authority (PRA), created by Congress in 2073. The PRA is in charge of reclaiming the biosphere by setting in place a phased worldwide ban on fossil fuels, total reforestation, and the recovery of shores and lowlands. "A favorable report on the progress of the PRA by a panel of independent scientists was made public in 15 September 2099. It found the earth clean, green, and safe at last. Forests, oceans, and lakes were in excellent health. Congress commemorated the occasion by declaring 15 September a world holiday, popularly known as earth Festival Day, which we have celebrated ever since."

The Great Turning: Personal Peace, Global Victory. Craig Schindler and Gary Lapid Bear & Company Publishing, Santa Fe., NM, May 1989/258p. A world scenario to 2025.

In this profound book about personal peace and the shift to a better world, Schindler and Lapid describe a scenario looking back from the year 2025. Trends and events driving the scenario are: an evolutionary shift in human thinking takes root; dialogue results in national reconciliation of conflicting views; interactive TV enables national electronic "town meetings"; economic development of underdeveloped nations becomes a key focus. In the scenario, conflict between individuals, communities and nations are swept away as the new ethic of respect for life and creative conflict resolution develops during the first quarter of the 21st century. Destruction of the environment is also halted and restoration efforts blossom as a new respect for the natural world develops.

Alternative World Scenarios for Strategic Planning. Charles W. Taylor (Strategic Futurist, SSI). Carlisle Barracks PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, Sept 1988/105p. World scenarios addressing two time periods - the years 2005 and 2025.

Taylor sketches four alternative world scenarios for strategic military planning. These scenarios were projected within a unique "cone of plausibility," aptly illustrated in the book. Trends driving the scenarios include: new international political order; rapid global population growth; increasing interdependence of nations; rapid scientific and technological change; proliferation of conventional and nuclear weapons; and unification of U.S. military forces into a smaller, elite, high-tech force. Scenario 1.) U.S. Isolationism: economic problems and a national focus on American social and environmental spending results in falling defense budgets early in the 21st century. At the same time, rising nationalism around the world reduces U.S. influence abroad. By 2020 most military bases abroad and many within the U.S. have been closed and the U.S. has adopted an isolationists approach to foreign affairs. Scenario 2.) U.S. World Peacekeeper: a dynamic, fiercely competitive international economy results in significant external threats to U.S. interests. A strengthened U.S. military protects the peace and U.S. investments abroad. Russia, at the center of a new confederation, is again a threat. Scenario 3.) Neonationalism: the rise of nationalism worldwide eliminates the U.S. political, economic and military presence abroad. External threats result in a smaller but well supported, high-tech U.S. military at home. Scenario 4.) Multipolar World: external threats to the U.S. are more economic than military. A resurgent Russian-centered confederation is again a significant military threat. Reduced defense budgets have resulted in a smaller American military.

Global Outlook 2000: An Economic, Social, and Environmental Perspective. The United Nations Publications. May 1990/ 340p. World scenarios to 2000.

This is a study undertaken for the UN General Assembly, drawing on research and projections prepared by many parts of the UN system and providing alternative scenarios of economic growth. Key trends driving the baseline scenario include: the risk of environmental deterioration increases; there is a geographic concentration of energy supply; food self-sufficiency stabilizes; widening R&D and technology gaps threaten North-South trade; high population growth in some developing countries. In the baseline scenario, economic performance throughout the 1990s changes little from the previous decade. The share of investment in GDP (an indicator of the formation of physical capital) is stable. Capital efficiency (a key for achieving sustainable economic growth) improves slightly. World GDP goes up from 1.6% to 1.8% annually, but the rich poor-gap worsens slightly. World trade expands 4.5% annually. By 2000, the balance of trade for developed countries improve about 0.5% while developing countries have a 2% deficit (as % of GDP). Alternative scenarios to the baseline scenario explore the effects of four groups of potential policy changes: 1. Accelerated structural change in developed market economies raise annual GDP growth by one-half percent. 2. Improved coordination of macroeconomic policies among major developed market economies lowers real interest rates and boosts growth in the world economy. 3. Political and economic reforms in former Soviet bloc lead to 4 to 5% growth in this region. 4. Developing countries implement a large agenda for economic improvement.

History of the Future: A Chronology. Peter Lorie and Sidd Murphy, Doubleday Publishing, Clark, NY. 1989/224p. A world scenario to 3000.

This book provides very illustrative chapters divided by centuries. The scenarios themselves are high-tech, and are on the leading edge or "fringe" of science and philosophy. Scenario 2000 - 2100 is a world that is radically transformed during the 21st century. In this world, artificial intelligence becomes a reality; science and religion become allies when old religious beliefs fall into disfavor; government shifts from democracy (one person, one vote) to meritocracy ( those with talent govern). This means that political leaders are selected based on eligibility examinations or academic qualifications. By 2100, there is greater harmony between our bodies and the environment, which enables us to better understand the causes of disease.

Future Mind: Artificial Intelligence. Jerome Glenn. Acropolis Books, Ltd. Washington, DC. 1989/307p. Three global scenarios to the 21st century.

"Soon, the Information Age will give way to a new era in which Appropriate Technology, High Technology and New Age thought will blend together into one exciting and practical vision." Glenn writes about merging of the mystical and the technological into the 21st century. Concludes with three global scenarios. Scenario 1.) High Tech-Low Mystic: an advanced technological society rejects the mystical aspects of human nature. Instead of being future shocked by technological change, people accept technological dominance of their lives. Scenario 2) Mystical Abuse-Technological Introversion: insecurity about technology leads to its rejection. People embrace old metaphysical views cloaked in the religious and occult authority. New Age optimism becomes mainstream, but slowing progress in science and engineering halts global economic growth and sets the stage for a decline of the human species. Scenario 3.) Oil and Water Truce: mystics and technocrats tolerate each other, but have not yet integrated their views. Plans for the serious development of space gets underway, including the creation of "aliens" via genetic engineering, bionics, and artificial intelligence to experiment with extraterrestrial communications.

The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future. John L. Peterson, Corte Madera CA: Waite Group Press. Sept 1994/372p. Publishers Group West, Emeryville CA. Three global scenarios to 2015.

The seeds of three different worlds suggested by Global Business Network are introduced to elicit an idea of where specific "crosscuts" and "wild cards" (evolutionary events) might guide us into the future. Lots of leading edge ideas are included. Scenario 1.) Market World: with amazing new technology and cooperation, the whole world becomes most desirable in terms of business, economics, politics, and society. After the Cold War, nations begin to solve their biggest problems in a positive way, leading to growth, development and innovation. Some of the topics in this scenario include - fuel cells that keep the air clean; a hydrogen economy evolves. Scenario 2.) New Empires: somewhat closed societies where protectionism or regionalism prevails, with the possibility of a largely free-trade mode and more severe competition. Some of the topics include major fights over genetic information; the end of the Nation-state. Scenario 3.) Global Incoherence: with the realization of all fears, it is a world of disaster. Even the technology gets out of hand. There is less hope and incentive for the better future and a lack of leadership. Increasing role of weapons for terrorism. See also "Art of the Longview" by Peter Schwartz.

The State of the World's Children 1995. James P. Grant. Published for UNICEF. NY: Oxford U Press, March 1995/89p. Two world scenarios to 2050.

The World Summit for Children in 1990 set goals and strategies to enhance and protect the lives of children worldwide. Since this summit, more than 100 developing nations have made significant strides to that end. In this report on the state of the world's children, UNICEF outlined two scenarios of the future of children to the year 2050. These scenarios are driven by the following global trends: international cooperation on children's issues grows; malnutrition reduced; immunization levels maintained; and increasing economic exclusion and increasing social disintegration in some developing countries. Scenario 1.) No new international effort to overcome poverty and underdevelopment. World population nears 12 billion. Environmental deterioration worsens. Economic marginalization continues and the rich-poor gap widens. Traditional community structures and values break down. Increasing civil and international conflict. Scenario 2.) A new international effort overcomes the worst of poverty and underdevelopment. Government expenditures and aid programs restructured to invest in jobs and basic social services. Population peaks at 8 billion. Environmental sustainability is adopted. Arms sales restricted. Economic inequalities lessen. States have drawn back from the brink of collapse.

Utopia Lost: The United Nations and World Order. Rosemary Righter. A Twentieth Century Fund Book. NY: TCF Press. Jan 1995/420p. World scenarios to 21st century.

After unsuccessful attempts at reform, the power and effectiveness of the UN has come into serious question. Strategies for strengthening the UN has become important to the success of the UN, particularly in an age of multilateralism where new forms of multilateral cooperation have been more successful than many UN organizations. Four possible options for the future of the UN are sketched. Scenario 1.) Opting Out: major powers withdraw from the United Nations, resulting in smaller nations developing a new system of multilateral cooperation. Scenario 2.) Structural Reform: the entire structure of the United Nations is reformed, resulting in more effective operation of the organization. Scenario 3.) Facade Management: expectations of the United Nations are scaled down and the organization continues to muddle along. Scenario 4.) Selective Action: a pragmatic approach that focuses on building upon the United Nations' areas of strength and excellence makes the organization more effective in a limited number of areas.

Millennium - Toward Tomorow's Society. Francis Kinsman. Wiley, NY. 1990. World scenarios to 2020.

In this book, Kinsman discusses key trends and the future of society, concluding with three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Retrenchment Scenario: a world where a severe recession leads to the collapse of developed countries' economies and there is a slump in commodity prices. A massive international crash results from the incapacity of the third world countries to pay their debts. Scenario 2.) The Assertive Materialism: pictures a short economic crisis followed by a prolonged period of fairly rapid economic growth as it is generally believed that technology and science have brought forward important answers. Scenario 3.) The Caring Autonomy: a substantial world with decentralized governments and interpersonal relationships.

The Next Two Hundred Years: A Scenario for America and the World. Herman Kahn, William Brown, and Leon Martel, with the assistance of the staff of the Hudson Institute. Morrow, New York, 1976/241p. World scenario to 21st century.

In this classic work, the authors propose various world scenarios of the future. Scenario 1.) The Optimistic Scenario: depicts a prosperous and plentiful world even though it has a high population. On the overall, the population is wealthy and controls nature. The world has reached this state through the use of existing living space and the Earth's resources. Population has reached a stable number (7.5 to 30 billion people) at around 2180 and living standards have increased. The per capita product is $7000 to $6000, the Gross World Product is between $60 trillion and $1,500 trillion. There are two alternatives to this future: An earth centered world where there is little extraterrestrial activity, and a "Spacebound" world where colonies are established in space and humans mine the planets of the solar system. Scenario 2.) Convinced Neo-Malthusian scenario: is a downside scenario in which the population has reached such a large number that it can no longer be fed. No successful decisions are made about the problems of the world. There have been no new discoveries, and technology and labor are counterproductive. The development of industry is decreasing and the quality of life ruined. It is a very sad long term future. Scenario 3.) Guarded Pessimistic Scenario: in this scenario, the population and economy have grown exponentially. The poverty gap between rich and poor nations is threatening, especially since there has been no successful decision making about world problems. There are no innovations in this scenario, with diminishing returns in technology and labor; development of industry has gone a step backwards and there are several threats to quality of life as well as possibilities of environmental disasters. Scenario 4.) Guarded Optimistic Scenario: there has been a gradual increase of available resources (in sufficient number for every one), the transition of population and economic growth have reached a stable level. The standard of living of both developed and developing countries has increased and world decision making has been pretty successful. Technology and capital are playing a greater and greater role in leading to progress. Innovations and discoveries are usually effective; the industrial development is continuous and quality of life increases but the transition toward a prosperous post-industrial economy, although successful, is painful. Scenario 5.) Technology and Growth Enthusiastic Scenario: the increase in available resources is rapid, solutions are found to solve resource problems. There is continuing growth; world decisionmaking is effective, technology and capital are solving almost all the contemporary problems, discoveries are numerous and industrial development is in continuity. The quality of life is good except for a few discounted people.

How to Build Scenarios, Lawrence Wilkerson Global Business Network. Scenarios: Special WIRED Edition. December, 1995. Four global scenarios to 2020.

Excellent primer on conceptualizing and creating strong scenarios. Defines and describes driving forces, scenario logics, axes of uncertainty, fleshing out scenarios, and examining implications of each. Example set of scenaros presented, with time frame to 2020. Critical uncertainties: individuality vs. community, stability vs. fragmentation. Scenario 1.) I will- individualism with marginal control by large organizations. "The world fragments into a working pandemonium of individuals, organized by jobs rather than geography. Communication is pervasive and focuses on personal empowerment. The Net becomes the chief exchange medium for decentralized work, personal gratification, and global commerce. Physical infrastructure in North America stagnates, while personal spaces thrive. Art and attention are turned inward, as personal expression in the new media, and old public spaces crumble. Technology is the global culture. The have-nots become the have-lates. Ethnic or group differences give way to a homogenized patchwork of unbridled individual variety. Europe is racked with civil strife as its socialistic civilization unravels. Russia rebounds, Japan lags. China and the developing countries become huge flea markets where just about anything goes." Scenario 2.) Consumerland- individual desires meet corporate center. "The world is populated by consumers rather than citizens. Technology breeds unlimited customized choices. The consumer is served by highly evolved companies, aggressively nimble and conscientious of the market's whims. Computers do increasing amounts of white-collar work. Manufactured products are heavily personalized, but do-it-yourself dies. Real leisure increases; dissent withers. Politics means electronic voting. Governments are virtual organizations, with their heavy lifting privatized to commercial ventures. The have-nots are given spending vouchers. Southeast Asia and the coast of China manufacture most of Consumerland's goods, and consume almost half themselves. Latin America is their branch office. Japan gets richer and unhappier. Russia exports trouble in the form of neo-religious cultists and mafioso. The US and Europe become large theme parks." Scenario 3.) Ecotopia- communalism with a strong social center. "The world slows the growth of development. In reaction to earlier decades of high crime and chaos, communitarian values triumph over strictly individualistic ones. Slimmed down and digitized governments win the trust of people. Directed taxation funds public works, some of them large scale. Corporations adopt civic-responsibility programs out of long-term economic self-interest. Technology, such as online shopping, makes urban living very resource-friendly. Net access is a subsidized right. Dirty technologies are outlawed, forcing less developed countries to leapfrog to clean and light technologies, if they can. Initially, this widens the gap between rich and poor nations. Europe erupts into a second renaissance, becoming a moral beacon. Japan mobilizes not much later. The Islamic world awakens. Asia and Latin America become lifeboats for the young and restless of the developed world who find the environmentalism and communitarianism too dogmatic; they settle in "free economic zones," where their migration and energy help to vitalize growth. North America stumbles as its cowboy individualism is tamed." Scenario 4.) New civics- values shared, but by many small competing groups. " The world settles into small, powerful city-states. Rural areas of the world are second-class, but have widespread virtual hookups. Europe fractionalizes into 57 countries; China, Russia, Brazil, and India also devolve into black market ethnic states. Gangs in developing countries and old inner cities transform into political law-and-order machines. Citizens use networks and databases to watch over and protect each other. Average life spans increase dramatically; general health improves. Civic pride blossoms. Governments use advance technologies to create the largest public works yet, both citywide and global. Corporations are reigned in by civic regulations, although they increase in size - there's the Fortune Global 5000. Conglomerates fund most of the UN-type activities."

The Future of Cultures . Coordinated by Eleonora Masini (Gregorian U, Rome). Paris: UNESCO Future-oriented Studies, Dec 1994/167p. Five global scenarios of the future of cultures.

The Futures of Cultures project is a synthesis of the thinking of some of the greatest authors in diverse fields. Some include: Sohail Inayatullah on Asian cultures, Kazuo Mizuta on the Japanese culture, and Godwin Sogolo on Africa. Masini sums up the thinking in five scenarios. 1) Pessimistic Scenario: "in which all cultures become bastardized, or reduced to a harmless 'museam' role." 2) Continuity-in-Change or Dual-Track Scenario: "where core elements of the culture remains strong." 3) The Resistance Scenario: "where the many cultures fend off the dominant one." 4) The Gaia Scenario: "where all cultures recognize that no culture is complete in itself." 5) The Jungle/Babel Scenario: "fostered by communications technologies and biotechnologies." In the future, it will be common for people to live among different cultures. Future Survey Annual 1994

Global Scenarios: Geopolitical and Economic Context to the Year 2000, Michel Godet, Pierre Chapay, and Gerard Comyn, Futures, 26:3, April, 1994, 275-288. World scenarios to 2000.

An excellent study of global trends and futures. The authors conclude with three world economy scenarios to 21st century. Scenario 1.) Black and Gray Scenarios: recessionary setback, regional wars, failed European integration, protectionism, and GNP growth of less than 0.5% (black) or 1.5% (gray). 2.) Blue Scenario: limited conflict, unequal development, regional protectionism, GNP growth of less than 0.5% or 1.5%. 3.) Pink Scenario: multipolar and interdependent world, economic convergence of East and West Europe, extended free trade, intensive globalization, GNP growth of more than 3%.

Looking Back From the 21st Century Hazel Henderson . Presented to Taking Nature Into Account International Conference, The European Parliment, Brussels, Belgium, May 31, 1995. Scenario of the world in 2010.

The worlds center of gravity "had shifted in many ways due to the communications-led shift toward democracies. This fueled the emerging global governance process: 'mediocracy,' i.e. media-driven policies and decisions." In this scenario, Henderson shows how it is possible for the United Nations and other viable international institutions to work together with nations to govern the global economy, to find a win-win financial system to maintain the goal of a sustainable development path. See section 3.4 of this book for a more detailed description of this normative scenario.

2025:Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. Joseph Coates, John Mahaffie, and Andy Hines, (Akron, OH: Oakhill Press, 1997) 800/322-6657.

Looking backward from the year 2025, fifteen scenarios present an integrated picture of what life will be like in the U.S. and around the world, with the powerful shaping role of science and technology emphasized. The environmental chapter, for example, highlights growing global support for sustainability and its implications for resource use and business practices.
 
The Fourth Wave: A Normative Forecast for the Future of "SpaceShip Earth." Oliver W. Markley Studies of the Future Program and Institute for Futures Research, University of Houston-Clear Lake http:// www. cl.uh.edu/futureweb/oliver.html. A normative vision useful to scenario planning.

Describes a Fourth Wave Transformation: Stabilization of Ecological Load as a normative vision of the future. In this future, the information age transforms to an era of global consciousness. This overarching vision is driven by the runaway increase in ecological load (summarized in Figure One of the original work), presenting such an enormous threat to the long range well-being of Earth's ecology that researchers in many different fields in fact, strive to discern normative visions for the future. Why? Because a normative forecast deals with preferable futures and can facilitate the process of moving a specific vision forward as time unfolds in the following way: preferable -> plausible -> probable -> realized. In this paper, the normative future involves a "Fourth Wave" trajectory leading to sustainable well being for the essential "life support systems of Spaceship Earth" (according to the president of Mitsubishi Materials Corporation, Yumi Akimoto, the term 'Spaceship Earth' is an excellent metaphor for pointing out the limited resources of the Earth's environment.) This normative future is not plausible without a transformation of the dominant social paradigm of "Western" culture. The author poses an excellent question: "How might future generations of the people on Spaceship Earth motivate themselves to make the changes necessary to voluntarily stabilize ecological load? Imagine a "New Overview Effect" brought by a combination of many factors, including "space tourism" (in both "outer" and "inner" space) and the wide-spread availability of appropriate theory, tools and training to: 1.discover the vast potential that lies within, especially as regards the implicate domain, hypothesized as being "causally prior" to the explicate universe of physical space; 2.engage in transphysical time/space travel in ways pointed to by Olaf Stapledon in Starmaker, and Robert Monroe in Far Journeys; and 3. participate in physical inter-stellar travel and galactic commerce, with a cultural posture more peaceful and partnership-oriented than war-like and exploitive."

AD 2000 Millennium Project. Centre for Strategy and Policy - Millennium Project AD 2000 http://www.open.ac.uk./OU/Academic/OUBS/Cstrat/AD2000/000.html . Four global scenarios.

A four year study involving thousands of the world's largest organizations. Sponsored by the leaders in the various fields - The Open University, The Strategic Planning Society and the Demos think-tank. See Open University's homepage for driving forces, trends, critical uncertainties, and more detailed scenarios. Scenario 1.) Evolutionary Space: "This scenario is, in many respects, the continuation of our present progress; the incremental progress of science and technology - making us ever wealthier and giving us an ever better quality of life. Because its progress typically represents an obvious extrapolation of current trends this is the scenario on which most writers about the future have focused. As a result it is the one with which the general public are most familiar - indeed, to a large extent, it is the only one they recognize. The pace of such change will grow ever faster - as it has done over recent decades. On the other hand, as the theory behind many the key drivers of technology over the next few decades has already been identified - and tested in the laboratories - though not yet implemented, its overall course is relatively predictable. There are, however, a number of major discontinuities still to be resolved as a result of developments in this field." Scenario 2.) Inner Space: "Much of the comment to date on the future - especially that reported in the media - has focused on the more obvious technological changes; and most notably those relating to the IT Revolution. On the other hand, having already initiated the massive changes which are under way, they no longer represent the main drivers for the changes to come. Now the main forces at work are social. It is the structures of society which, above all, are being torn apart around us - to be replaced by very different frameworks. Arguably, the real changes are taking place at the level of the individual. Indeed they are taking place inside the individual - hence the reference, in this scenario, to inner space. This second scenario, therefore, is - in a number of ways - almost diametrically opposed to the technological one. The most obvious of these is the contrast between the hard realities of technology and the soft values of the individual, but there are other contrasts. The technological scenario is largely incremental - and in may respects quite predictable - where this scenario is likely progress from one major discontinuity to the next - leading to considerable uncertainty. Such 'fractures' are not usually predictable, and in general their outcomes are as yet largely unknown. Indeed, as we will see, this is the scenario which contains a significant number of unanswered questions. At all levels it is, therefore, characterized by uncertainty. Even so, though the detailed outcomes are unknown, the scenario is also likely to be an optimistic one; since its general message is the empowerment of the individual." Scenario 3.) Shared Space: "The third of the scenarios, the last of the three optimistic ones, looks at how the changes will affect the world as a whole. In particular, it looks at how the 'unlimited' resources may be - and ultimately will be - shared more equitably, to the benefit of all and the greater safety of the whole of humanity. Like the first scenario, this is an incremental one; the trends are already there to be seen. There is, as a result, more certainty in terms of the outcomes; though the politicians in the West are as yet blind to these certainties." Scenario 4.) Dark Space: "Three of the four scenarios described in this work are generally optimistic; outer space, inner space and shared space. This is, though, one which is potentially much more pessimistic. It encapsulates the dark forces which have previously generated considerable pain and anguish in previous transitions. At the heart of these forces lie the power structures, inevitably dominated by the established political parties. It is fair to say that, although the three 'optimistic' scenarios are most likely to dominate society in the longer term, the dark forces may make the transition, in the short and medium term, painful; and, if the scale of disruption escalates too far, they might possibly even destroy the chances of an optimistic future even in the longer term. Indeed, the historical precedents for a peaceful transition are not good. Previous transitions have been bloody; as the then establishment fought to preserve its position, and privileges, against the encroachment of the new, changed society."

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Last Updated: Nov. 25, 1997