On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University and in cooperation with its sponsors listed below, we have the honor to invite you to participate in the 2001 Global Lookout Panel to help create the "State of the Future Index" (SOFI).
The Millennium Project is creating a statistical foundation to forecast change over the next ten years and to identify the factors responsible. If confidence were developed in SOFI, it could be used for policy purposes: plans could be evaluated and compared on the basis of their impact on a State of the Future Index. The on-going process to create and improve SOFI would help raise and inform a discussion about "what constitutes improvement."
The Millennium Project is a worldwide system for collecting and synthesizing judgments about emerging global challenges that may affect the human condition. Its annual State of the Future and other special reports are used by decision-makers and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions.
Over the past five years, Global Lookout Panels have involved about 800 people in questionnaires and interviews who identified and rated key global developments, issues, opportunities, challenges, actions, and indicators of progress on the global challenges. The enclosed questionnaire builds on the results of these panels by collecting judgments that will permit the formation of an index that aggregates indicators to forecast improvement or deterioration of the global state of the future.
Last year the Global Lookout Panel was asked to identify and rate indicators to measure progress for each of the 15 global challenges developed by the Millennium Project. The list has been further evaluated as to utility and data availability. The enclosed questionnaire will help the aggregation of these and other indicators into a meaningful index.
Those who respond to this questionnaire will receive the results in a complementary copy of the next edition of the State of the Future. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants.
Please contact us if you have any questions or need clarification about this request, and return your responses to arrive at the AC/UNU Millennium Project by 18 May 2001. We look forward to including your views, and to sharing with you the overall results of this research.
Sincerely yours,
Jerome C. Glenn, Director, AC/UNU Millennium Project
Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow
Section 1 asks you to rate 43 potential indicators regarding
their best and worst conditions within the next ten years and how
they should be weighted in the proposed State of the Future Index (SOFI).
Data associated with each indicator is included.
Section 2 asks for additional suggestions that might be included
in SOFI. Include your estimates for the best and worst plausible status
for your suggestions within the next ten years. Please also include historic
data sources (preferably those that include data over the past 20 years)
in a similar way as displayed in Section 1.
Section 3 asks which are the five most essential indicators
to include in SOFI from the initial list of 43 items.
The initial list was partly based on indicators identified and rated
by last year's Global Lookout Panel. Duplications were deleted, as were
those for which no or insufficient data could be found. The list was also
augmented by indicators used by OECD, UNDP, WorldWatch Institute, and others
to include measures that could show progress on the Global Challenges.
You are not requested to answer every question. Just provide your judgments about those items within your expertise and interest. Please complete the questionnaire and return it by 18 May, 2001. Please respond by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with copy to jglenn@igc.org or fax to 202 686 5179 or mail to: American Council for the United Nations University, The Millennium Project, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA.
Since faxes (that include hand written responses) may be difficult to read, please consider sending your response by email to make sure your views are recorded correctly. This questionnaire can be filled out on-line at http://mpcollab.org and select SOFI from main menu at left, or it can be downloaded from http://millennium-project.org/millennium/sofi-quest.html (If you experience problems using this address, please go to http://millennium-project.org and access the questionnaire under the "What's New" or "Global Lookout Study" buttons.) In this way you can fill out the questionnaire on your computer off-line and then send it back by email.
Alternatively, you can put your answers separately without the text
of the questions and email or fax this shorter version. No matter which
mode of response you choose, please include your name, institutional affiliation
and title, along with your post mail address, phone, and fax number. All
responses are confidential, and no attributions will be made.
Specific Instructions for Section 1
Column 1 of the following table asks for your judgments about the norm or best plausible status for the indicator within ten years. Column 2 asks for the distopic or worse plausible status of the indicator within ten years. To help you provide this answer, the average historical value of the indicator between 1980 and 2000 is shown in Column 3. Millennium Project staff have put estimates of plausible norm and distopic conditions of indicators within ten years in the columns 1 and 2 only as a guide - please put your own estimates in column 1 and 2 at the > sign. For example, staff estimated infant mortality rate (deaths per 1000 live births) could go as low as 25 in the best plausible situation (norm) by 2011 or as high as 90 in the worst plausible case (distopic) within ten years. Please place your answers at the > sign.
Columns 4 and 5 ask for your judgments about the weights that should be given the indicator if the best plausible status actually occurs (Normative weight Column 4) and if the worst plausible status actually occurs (Distopic weight Column 5) within ten years.
These values may or may not be the same. When an indicator reaches a level of satiation, it may no longer be as important as it used to be. For example, when Indicator 2: "food intake, calories per person" is below 1500 calories, the variable would be very important, since most people in the world would be very hungry. In this case it might deserve a high weighting. If it were above 3,000 calories, however, the sense of urgency associated with hunger would no longer be as important and it might deserve a lower weight.
The criteria for assigning a high weight to a variable are: the number of people affected; the significance of the effect; whether or not some groups are affected differentially; the time over which the effect will be felt; and whether or not the effect is reversible. Thus assigning a weight of 10 will imply that you believe that it is essential to include because changes in its course will affect almost everyone (or some large groups differentially), deeply, for many decades, and it will be very difficult to change the situation once it occurs. Please use the following scale for rating:
10 = Essential to include in any index
that is designed to depict the expected state of the future
8 = Extremely important
5 = Enough people or groups are affected
by changes in this variable to consider it seriously
3 = Relatively unimportant.
1 = Do NOT include it in SOFI
Thus, in the case of "food intake calories per capita" the weight for the worst plausible world (a world of hunger) might be 10, but in the best plausible world (a world of food plenty) the weight might be 5.
The Millennium Project
State of the Future Index (SOFI)
Questionnaire
Section 1
Remember, you are not requested to answer every question. Just provide
your judgments about those items within your expertise and interest.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ||
| Indicator | Norm or Best Plausible by 2011 | Distopic or Worst Plausible by 2011 | Average Values 1980-00 | Weight of Norm in 2011 | Distopic Weight in 2011 | Source | |
| 1 | Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) | 25
> |
90
> |
71 | > | > | U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base, 2000 |
| 2 | Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries | 3,200
> |
2,000
> |
2,238 | > | > | FAO, Foodstat Nutrition Database, 2001; http://apps.fao.org/page/collections?subset=nutrition |
| 3 | GNP per capita (constant 1995 $US) | 6,300
> |
4,400
> |
4,830 | > | > | World Bank, International Comparison Program database, 2000 |
| 4 | Percentage of House-holds with Access to Safe Water | 90
> |
70
> |
72 | > | > | WHO Basic Health Indicators, Asia Recovery Data Information Center aric.adb.org/indicators; and WRI Environmental Health Indicators, 2000; aggregated by the Millennium Project |
| 5 | Average annual global temperature (Centigrade) | 14
> |
16
> |
14 | > | > | Goddard Institute for Space Studies, March, 2001; http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/graphs/ |
| 6 | CO2 emissions, industrial (mil kt) | 14
> |
40
> |
19 | > | > | Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2000 |
| 7 | Annual population additions millions | 65
> |
85
> |
81 | > | > | US Bureau of Census International Data Base, 1999. |
| 8 | Contraceptive prevalence
(% of women aged 15-49) |
65
> |
30
> |
45 | > | > | Surveys (such as Demographic and Health Survey or Living Standards Measurement Study) from national sources; WDI CD ROM, 2000 |
| 9 | Percent unemployed | 5
> |
12
> |
7 | > | > | ILO data for unemployment used as a basis for global aggregation, about 80 countries; www.laborsta.ilo.org |
| 10 | Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) | 90
> |
60
> |
70 | > | > | UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1999 |
| 11 | Literacy rate, adult female (% of females aged 15 and above) | 90
> |
50
> |
62 | > | > | UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1999 |
| 12 | Immunization DPT (percent babies under 12 months) | 98
> |
40
> |
69 | > | > | World Health Organization, 2000 |
| 13 | Annual new HIV cases (millions) | 1
> |
10 | 2.8 | > | > | UNAIDS and CDC
www.unaids.org |
| 14 | Annual AIDS deaths (millions) | 0.5
> |
20
> |
1 | > | > | UNAIDS, March, 2001; www.unaids.org |
| 15 | Life Expectancy (World) | 75
> |
60
> |
60 | > | > | UN, World Population Prospects: The 1998 revision, NY: December 1998) |
| 16 | Women in Parliaments
(% of total) |
25
> |
12 | 12 | > | > | International Parliamentary Union, "Women in Parliaments 1945-1995" and 2000 data |
| 17 | Refugees and others of concern to UNHCR (millions) | 6
> |
75
> |
16 | > | > | United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, (UNHCR) various data series. <www.unhcr.org> |
| 18 | Telephone Lines/ Cap | 500
> |
100
> |
106 | > | > | ITU, World Telecommunication Database |
| 19 | GDP per unit of energy use (1995 US$ per kg of oil equivalent) (High Income Countries) | 8
> |
4
> |
5 | > | > | EIA International Energy Outlook 2000 (includes projection) Read from graphs and interpolated |
| 20 | R&D expenditures (Developed Countries, billions 1992 US$) | 700
> |
170
> |
309 | > | > | Science and Engineering Indicators, 2000, National Science Foundation |
| 21 | Private consumption per capita (constant 1995 US$) | 5,500
> |
2,500
> |
2,972 | > | > | World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data, WDI, 2000 |
| 22 | World Grain Production | 2,300
> |
1,400
> |
1,691 | > | > | Worldwatch, Vital Signs, 2000, based on USDA data. |
| 23 | Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr) | 10
> |
50
> |
28 | > | > | Stockholm Institute for Peace Research, 2001 |
| 24 | Developing Countries Debt (billion 1998 dollars) | 1100
> |
5,000
> |
1,836 | > | > | World Bank, Global Development Finance, 1999 |
| 25 | Forest Lands (Million Hectares) | 4,500
> |
3,000
> |
3,993 | > | > | FAO <www.fao.org> |
| 26 | Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%) | 6
> |
300
> |
96 | > | > | World Bank, Data on Poverty, 2000 |
| 27 | Terrorist Attacks | 200
> |
700
> |
456 | > | > | "Patterns of Global Terrorism", US Department of State, Publication 10687, 1999 |
| 28 | Violent Crime (per 100,000 population) | 2,800
> |
4,000
> |
1,178 | > | > | "UN Survey on Crime Trends and Operation
of the Criminal Justice System, 2000;" uncijn.org/Statistics/
statistics.html; in countries totaling about 4 billion people |
| 29 | Internet Host Computers (millions) | 200
> |
50
> |
10 | > | > | Internet Software Consortium, 2000 |
| 30 | Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free | 20 | 45 | 39 | > | > | Adrian Karatnycky, "The 1999-2000 Freedom House Survey of Freedom, A Century of Progress" |
| 31 | Number of International NGO's | 35,000
> |
20,000
> |
17,833 | > | > | Union of International Organizations and Worldwatch, 2000 |
| 32 | Opium Production Worldwide (Metric Tons) | 1,000
> |
5,500
> |
2,995 | > | > | US State Department, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, Mar. 2000 |
| 33 | Scientific and Technical Articles Published (Thousands) | 750
> |
500
> |
479 | > | > | National Science Foundation, Science Indicators, 2000 |
| 34 | Oil Resources, Production, Identified
and Estimated Undis-
covered (BBO) |
5,000
> |
2,000
> |
2,118 | > | > | US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment, 2000 |
| 35 | Female Employment Ratio | 70
> |
50
> |
53 | > | > | Comparative Civilian Labor Statistics- Ten Countries, US BLS, December, 2000 |
| 36 | Patents Granted, Worldwide | 300,000
> |
75,000
> |
93,275 | > | > | US Patent and Trademark Office, 2000 |
| 37 | Number of ISO 14000 certifications | 600,000
> |
20,000
> |
7,339 | > | > | International Organization for Standardization, 2000, <www.iso.ch> |
| 38 | School Enrollment, secondary (% school age) | 85
> |
55
> |
63 | > | > | World Development Indicators, 2000 WINSTARS CD Rom |
| 39 | Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries) | 100
> |
75
> |
86 | > | > | Basic Health Indicators, WHO, 2000 http://www-nt.who.int/whosis/statistics/ basic_whr/basic_whr.cfm?path=statistics.basic.basic_whr&language=english |
| 40 | Number of Nuclear Warheads | 10,000
> |
50,000
> |
52,598 | > | > | Global Nuclear Stockpiles 1945-1997", Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: www.bullatomsci.org/issues/nukenotes/nd97nukenote.html; and Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Arms, www.clw.org/coalition/nukelev.htm, 2000; projection per Start II |
| 41 | Microprocessor Clock Speed (MHz) | 10,000
> |
1,000
> |
150 | > | > | Intel Corporation
www.intel.com/intel/museum/25anniv/hof/tspecs.htm |
| 42 | Satellite Launches | 150
> |
50
> |
124 | > | > | Data from 1980 to 1998 compiled by Worldwatch; 1999 data from: stargate.1usa.com/stamps/launches/laun1999.htm |
| 43 | Number of Companies using ISO 9000 | 900,000
> |
300,000
> |
85,223 | > | > | International Organization for Standardization, 2000, www.iso.ch |
Section 2
Please add suggestions for other indicators that, in your judgment,
are at the importance level of 8 or above (in either the best or worst
plausible worlds) and that you believe should be added to the State of
the Future Index.
| Indicator | Norm or Best Plausible by 2010 | Distopic or Worst Plausible by 2010 | Average Values 1980-00 | Weight if Norm were Achieved | Weight if distopic were Achieved | Source |
|
|
Section 3
If you were restricted to only 5 variables, which would you include?
(Please just write the number of the variable in the blank space)
1. _________
2. _________
3. _________
4. _________
5. _________
Comments:
Please sent this by 18 May, 2001 by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with copy to jglenn@igc.org or fax to 202 686 5179 or mail to: American Council for the United Nations University, The Millennium Project, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA.
Thank you for your participation in the SOFI questionnaire. You will
receive the results in the next State of the Future by September
2001.
The questionnaire requested judgments about the value of the variables
in a best and dystopic world ten years in the future, as well as weights
to be assigned these variables in an index. To aid the respondents, average
values for the variables during the period 1980-2000 were presented (shown
shaded). The table below shows the average judgments of the panel and the
number of responses. Many responses were received after this calculation;
they will be included in the next publication of the research.
| Variable | Norm or Best Plausible by 2011 | Dystopic or Worst Plausible by 2011 | Average Values 1980-00 | Weight of Norm in 2011 | Dystopic Weight in 2011 | Avg No. | |
| 1 | Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) | 29 | 81 | 71 | 5.42 | 7.70 | 39 |
| 2 | Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries | 2,847 | 1,668 | 2,238 | 5.50 | 8.39 | 37 |
| 3 | GNP per capita (constant 1995 $US) | 6,234 | 3,994 | 4,830 | 7.03 | 8.03 | 39 |
| 4 | Percentage of House-holds with Access to Safe Water | 86 | 59 | 72 | 6.05 | 8.52 | 40 |
| 5 | Average annual global temperature (Centigrade) | 14 | 15 | 14.3 | 5.42 | 7.12 | 30 |
| 6 | CO2 emissions, industrial (mil kt) | 16 | 37 | 19 | 5.78 | 7.68 | 33 |
| 7 | Annual population additions millions | 63 | 84 | 81 | 6.38 | 7.33 | 36 |
| 8 | Contraceptive prevalence
(% of women aged 15-49) |
68 | 40 | 45 | 5.06 | 5.65 | 31 |
| 9 | Percent unemployed | 6 | 14 | 7 | 5.15 | 7.56 | 43 |
| 10 | Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) | 89 | 60 | 70 | 5.21 | 6.74 | 45 |
| 11 | Literacy rate, adult female (% of females aged 15 and above) | 85 | 52 | 62 | 4.79 | 6.17 | 43 |
| 12 | Immunization DPT (percent babies under 12 months) | 93 | 46 | 69 | 5.06 | 6.94 | 28 |
| 13 | Annual new HIV cases (millions) | 2 | 20 | 2.2 | 5.28 | 7.09 | 27 |
| 14 | Annual AIDS deaths (millions) | 3 | 23 | 1.3 | 5.61 | 7.24 | 28 |
| 15 | Life Expectancy (World) | 74 | 56 | 60 | 5.38 | 6.21 | 45 |
| 16 | Women in Parliaments
(% of total) |
26 | 12 | 12 | 4.22 | 5.16 | 33 |
| 17 | Refugees and others of concern to UNHCR (millions) | 9 | 67 | 16 | 4.84 | 6.39 | 28 |
| 18 | Telephone Lines/ Cap | 448 | 128 | 106 | 4.34 | 5.24 | 30 |
| 19 | GDP per unit of energy use (1995 US$ per kg of oil equivalent) (High Income Countries) | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6.50 | 6.81 | 24 |
| 20 | R&D expenditures (Developed Countries, billions 1992 US$) | 648 | 218 | 309 | 5.71 | 6.38 | 30 |
| 21 | Private consumption per capita (constant 1995 US$) | 5,474 | 2,396 | 2,972 | 4.94 | 5.64 | 28 |
| 22 | World Grain Production | 3,765 | 1,400 | 1,691 | 5.48 | 7.35 | 30 |
| 23 | Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr) | 14 | 51 | 28 | 6.30 | 7.83 | 36 |
| 24 | Developing Countries Debt (billion 1998 dollars) | 1,168 | 4,577 | 1,836 | 5.66 | 7.17 | 25 |
| 25 | Forest Lands (Million Hectares) | 4,522 | 2,948 | 3,993 | 6.69 | 7.70 | 32 |
| 26 | Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top 5% to | 29 | 296 | 96 | 6.24 | 7.65 | 31 |
| 27 | Terrorist Attacks | 267 | 673 | 456 | 5.90 | 7.09 | 28 |
| 28 | Violent Crime (per 100,000 population) | 1,918 | 4,057 | 1,178 | 6.00 | 7.50 | 27 |
| 29 | Internet Host Computers (millions) | 222 | 53 | 10 | 5.83 | 6.50 | 33 |
| 30 | Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free | 20 | 44 | 39 | 6.22 | 7.33 | 33 |
| 31 | Number of International NGO's | 40,526 | 19,100 | 17,833 | 4.74 | 4.39 | 24 |
| 32 | Opium Production Worldwide (Metric Tons) | 1,350 | 6,868 | 2,995 | 5.04 | 6.00 | 22 |
| 33 | Scientific and Technical Articles Published (Thousands) | 737 | 508 | 479 | 4.03 | 4.68 | 30 |
| 34 | Oil Resources, Production, Identified and Estimated Undis-covered (BBO) | 4,381 | 1,791 | 2,118 | 5.00 | 5.39 | 26 |
| 35 | Female Employment Ratio | 70 | 49 | 53 | 5.00 | 5.33 | 36 |
| 36 | Patents Granted, Worldwide | 248,421 | 79,762 | 93,275 | 4.59 | 4.82 | 24 |
| 37 | Number of ISO 14000 certifications | 514,706 | 78,333 | 7,339 | 4.31 | 5.46 | 22 |
| 38 | School Enrollment, secondary (% school age) | 86 | 56 | 63 | 6.13 | 7.44 | 36 |
| 39 | Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries) | 96 | 71 | 86 | 5.40 | 6.91 | 40 |
| 40 | Number of Nuclear Warheads | 13,118 | 54,824 | 52,598 | 6.29 | 6.92 | 21 |
| 41 | Microprocessor Clock Speed (MHz) | 21,667 | 1,753 | 150 | 4.73 | 5.13 | 19 |
| 42 | Satellite Launches | 189 | 82 | 124 | 3.95 | 4.48 | 20 |
| 43 | Number of Companies using ISO 9000 | 1,580,000 | 296,667 | 85,223 | 3.62 | 4.45 | 18 |
Section 3 asked the participants if they were restricted to only 5 variables,
which would they include? Below is the list reflecting the panel's judgements.
| Indicator | Times | |
| 1 | Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) | 14 |
| 2 | Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries | 21 |
| 3 | GNP per capita (constant 1995 $US) | 16 |
| 4 | Percentage of House-holds with Access to Safe Water | 9 |
| 5 | Average annual global temperature (Centigrade) | 6 |
| 6 | CO2 emissions, industrial (mil kt) | 6 |
| 7 | Annual population additions millions | 14 |
| 8 | Contraceptive prevalence(% of women aged 15-49) | 1 |
| 9 | Percent unemployed | 9 |
| 10 | Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and | 14 |
| 11 | Literacy rate, adult female (% of females aged 15 and | 3 |
| 12 | Immunization DPT (percent babies under 12 months) | 4 |
| 13 | Annual new HIV cases (millions) | 0 |
| 14 | Annual AIDS deaths (millions) | 3 |
| 15 | Life Expectancy (World) | 9 |
| 16 | Women in Parliaments(% of total) | 0 |
| 17 | Refugees and others of concern to UNHCR (millions) | 1 |
| 18 | Telephone Lines/ Cap | 4 |
| 19 | GDP per unit of energy use (1995 US$ per kg of oil | 5 |
| 20 | R&D expenditures (Developed Countries, billions 1992 | 4 |
| 21 | Private consumption per capita (constant 1995 US$) | 1 |
| 22 | World Grain Production | 3 |
| 23 | Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr) | 8 |
| 24 | Developing Countries Debt (billion 1998 dollars) | 2 |
| 25 | Forest Lands (Million Hectares) | 12 |
| 26 | Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top | 11 |
| 27 | Terrorist Attacks | 1 |
| 28 | Violent Crime (per 100,000 population) | 2 |
| 29 | Internet Host Computers (millions)<!--[if | 3 |
| 30 | Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are | 6 |
| 31 | Number of International NGO's | 1 |
| 32 | Opium Production Worldwide (Metric Tons) | 0 |
| 33 | Scientific and Technical Articles Published ( Thousands | 2 |
| 34 | Oil Resources, Production, Identified and Estimated | 0 |
| 35 | Female Employment Ratio | 1 |
| 36 | Patents Granted, Worldwide | 0 |
| 37 | Number of ISO 14000 certifications | 2 |
| 38 | School Enrollment, secondary (% school age) | 8 |
| 39 | Percentage of population with access to local health care | 12 |
| 40 | Number of Nuclear Warheads | 4 |
| 41 | Microprocessor Clock Speed (MHz) | 1 |
| 42 | Satellite Launches | 0 |
| 43 | Number of Companies using ISO 9000 | 0 |
1. When earliest occurs after 1980, the average shown is for the years from earliest data until 2000.