AC/UNU Millennium Project
2025 Science and Technology
Management Scenarios - ROUND 2


Invitation

The Questionnaire

Scenarios
        Scenario 1. S&T Develops a Mind of Its Own
        Scenario 2. The World Wakes Up
        Scenario 3. Please Turn off the Spigot
        Scenario 4. Backlash

Invitation

On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in the second round of a two-round questionnaire to assess future science and technology policy and management issues. You have been selected by your country's Science Attaché to Washington, D.C. or by the Millennium Project and its 18 Nodes around the world.

The attached questionnaire is based on feedback from Round 1 and will be used to produce long-range alternative scenarios on science and technology.  This completes a three-year assessment. The first year explored S&T issues over the next 25 years. The second year explored the implications of these issues for S&T management.  And this, the third year, is intended to make the policy and management alternatives explicit via scenarios.

The Millennium Project is a worldwide effort to collect and synthesize judgments about emerging global challenges that may affect the human condition. Its annual State of the Future and other special reports are used by government policymakers, corporate and NGO decision-makers, and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions. The Project is funded by  sponsors, with additional funding for this particular study from the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy.

Results of this research are expected to be of interest and value to the national and international scientific communities and the institutions that fund such research, providing the context for setting long-term goals and strategies. Those who respond to this questionnaire will receive the study's results in a complimentary copy of the 2003 State of the Future. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants. Please provide you judgments about at least one of the four scenarios enclosed. One-paragraph abstracts of each scenario are included in the Instructions to help you select one or more scenarios. You do not have to read the full text of all four scenarios.

Please contact us with any questions and return your responses to arrive at the AC/UNU Millennium Project by  21 May 2003. Please respond by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@att.net, or fax to +1-202-686-5179, or airmail to: The Millennium Project, AC/UNU, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA.

We look forward to including your views.

Sincerely yours,

Jerome C. Glenn, Director, AC/UNU Millennium Project
Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow, AC/UNU Millennium Project

International Science and Technology Management Policy:
Alternative Scenarios for the year 2025
Round 2

The global scenario themes for S&T management and policy rated the most important over the next 25 years by the international panel in Round 1 were:  the rate of progress of S&T, severity of the risks of S&T, the nature of science education for the general public, the level of public concern over the risks and the nature and locus of S&T regulation. Additional themes were suggested such as how well S&T addresses human needs, the development gap, environment, and energy, and how well it reflects or integrates with the human spirit. These themes plus additional feedback on each scenario were used to write the second draft of the scenarios contained in this questionnaire.

You will be asked to: 1) fill in the blanks in the scenarios; 2) add developments, events, and/or other changes that you think will make the scenarios more useful; and 3) consider the implications of the scenarios for S&T policies today.

Please look at the following four scenarios and share your views on at least one of them. Note that the questions that follow each scenario ask for judgments about plausibility, not desirability.
You do not have to answer all the questions, just those related to your interest and expertise.  Although no attributions will be made, participants will be listed in the final report.

Round 1 also asked the following questions (results are in percentages):

As you consider the possibilities for 2025, please note that just 25 years ago there was no Internet, EU, space shuttles orbiting earth or talk of globalization, AIDS, and many believed that nuclear war between the USSR and the US was inevitable.  Since the factors that accelerated change over the past 25 years are themselves accelerating, then rate of change over the next 25 years should be much faster.

Because of the length of this questionnaire, you may not wish to respond to all four scenarios; please feel free to choose the scenarios of interest to you. Here is an abstract of each:

Scenario 1. S&T Develops a Mind of its Own

The rate of scientific discoveries and technological applications accelerates human knowledge, which in turn further accelerates S&T. Collective intelligence increases via advances in nutrition, education, and TEF (Tele-Everywhere-Feedback protocol) with CyberNow clothing and glasses. This helps achieve miracles in human performance, social stability, and economic growth for much of the world. However, government regulatory systems cannot keep up with the pace of S&T innovations. They adapted by using the International Science and Technology Organization (ISTO), which began as a global information and feedback system, as a de facto regulatory body that today is automating so many governing functions, that one wonders if S&T is developing a mind of its own.

Click here or on the title of the scenario to get to the full text of this scenario.

Scenario 2. The World Wakes Up
The murder of 25 million people in the mid-2010s by the self-proclaimed Agent of God, who created the genetically modified Congo virus, finally woke up the world to the realization that an individual acting alone could create and use a weapon of mass destruction. This phenomenon became known as SIMAD (Single Individual Massively Destructive) and led to global controls on science and technology. The International Science and Technology Organization (ISTO) was formed using the advice of an eminent group of scientists and world leaders. When the group reached a consensus on some element of the strategy, it was discussed around the world to form a broad social consensus. This led to treaties and establishing the regulatory power of ISTO in concert with the UN Security Council, which, on occasion authorizes intervention in lines of scientific inquiry.   Educational and security systems have been linked to increase tolerance for diversity and to detect incipient terrorists. Human security - freedom from fear - is the new organizing principal for world affairs. Individual acts of mass destruction have thus far been prevented and the international S&T regulations and enforcement appear to be working. 

Click here or on the title of the scenario to get to the full text of this scenario.

Scenario 3. Please Turn off the Spigot
Science is attacked as pompous and self-aggrandizing. The opposition argues that the science/corporate complex locks the world into a neo-colonialism based on consumption, for people that live in rich countries as well as poor. Particularly worrisome are science "slip-ups" that provide- intended or not- means for killing large numbers of people, capturing or controlling behavior, and forming or distorting broadly accepted norms. The world's poor are ignored. Against this background, a science guru/Luddite galvanizes the public to take action. A global commission is established to control the directions of S&T but it fails because of corruption.  However, a new, cleaner commission is established. Anti corruption strategies include very high salaries for the Commissioners, term limits, transparency and public visibility. This new approach finally seems to be working.

Click here or on the title of the scenario to get to the full text of this scenario.

Scenario 4. Backlash
Control over the directions of science is based on self-regulation. Under self-regulation, the disciplines themselves determine acceptable risks. Science blossoms. The media hypes the golden age of science and they say, and the public believes that “more is better and change is good.” But this era of accelerated science has a dark side. Developments needed by society have low priority. Some of the new capabilities cost security and privacy, and produce an imposed rationality that is antithetical to many cultures. Unthinking consumption rules lives. Rogue nations take advantage of the low level of control and under the guise of research develop world-threatening weapons. The level of concern rises and the media, once the friend of science, now attack it. Mobs form in front of university and government research labs, as they once did in protest over globalization. Self- regulation of S&T fails and is replaced by centralized control. This also turns out badly. Progress stalls, and poverty continues growing.  What’s next?

Click here or on the title of the scenario to get to the full text of this scenario.

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When you respond by email, fax, or mail, you don't need to reproduce the entire questionnaire; just the scenario and question number and your response.

Scenario 1.   S&T Develops a Mind of Its Own

Question 1. Please fill in the blanks in the following scenario.

Most people in 1975 would never have believed that by the year 2000, millions of people would simultaneously search millions of computers in less than one second.  Similarly, the general public in 2000 would have been quite surprised that in just 25 years collective intelligence would be dramatically increased. But today's customized neural nutritional supplements, universal cognitive development access, and TEF (Tele-Everywhere-Feedback protocol) with CyberNow clothing and glasses have achieved miracles in human performance, social stability, and economic growth. Moore’s law not only accelerated computer capacity, it also accelerated all phenomena connected to computers.

TEF-CyberNow affected or connected only about 10% of the world in 2015, but in the last ten years, the economies of scale brought the price so low that now most people are given CyberNow glasses and/or clothing free as part of employee benefits, rights of citizenship, insurance policies, marketing programs, and credit systems. This has accelerated diffusion within poorer countries. UNICEF and WHO also helped distribution to the poorer regions. Speech recognition and synthesis, now integrated in nearly everything, have made technology transfer far more successful than originally deemed possible by UNDP's Tele-volunteers, who did much to help the poorest regions benefit from these new technologies. As a result, many remote villages in the poorest countries have cyberspace access for tele-education, tele-work, tele-medicine, tele-commerce, and tele-nearly-anything.

By 2025, nearly 70% of the world is connected via TEF and ___1.1_________ % wears some form of CyberNow at least once-per-week.  More than half the world spends more than half its waking hours in cyberspace. At this rate, it is only a matter of time until the self-organizing properties of intelligent software complete the connectivity of humanity, except for those remaining neo-Luddites forming and living in historical theme parks.

People used to think that Internet was the most powerful force for global change in history, but today TEF-CyberNow goes far beyond Internet's crude connection of text and images by becoming a continuous virtual reality as user-friendly as breathing. Between 2010 and 2015 the massive international S&T cooperative research program on human-computer intelligence initiated by __1.2________________ identified the factors that ultimately enhanced collective intelligence.  The R&D program that followed produced the infrastructure for the inexpensive tele-activities that enhanced cognitive development even in many remote areas or the world.

Business and universities that used early brain-computer interfaces prospered, and stimulated more R&D for even better products, which led to wider public acceptance. However, it was in the area of entertainment where the prices fell fastest and the numbers of users really accelerated. Global cyber games engaged millions. The distinctions among work, play, and leisure have blurred in cyberspace. Some thought it was not natural and resisted, but many mothers around the world who wanted the best for their children pushed for the use of TEF and CyberNow in schools and home entertainment.

Once people believed it was possible to enhance human intelligence by computer augmentation, the corporate R&D race took off to create the mass products for everyone to use. Just as Mosaic and Netscape accelerated the use of the World Wide Web in the 1990s, so too TEF and CyberNow accelerated the human-machine continuum in the early 2020s. Today, CyberNow clothing monitors health to alert the user and medical systems about potential health problems.
Computational chemistry, simulation biology, and genetic engineering have customized medicine and reduced cost. Tele-medicine is commonplace for over half the world that now diagnoses and treats themselves for many problems via DNA diagnostic options via their CyberNow clothing. Genetic medicine is eliminating inherited diseases from the human gene pool. Tele-care, fought by many, is now more accepted as TEF and CyberNow systems have improved. Low-cost robotic systems provide medical care support in both homes and hospitals. With two billion people over the age of 60 and the growing shortages of medical personnel these Tele-care systems were inevitable.

Nanotechnology lowered the cost and increased the reliability of many products, which have contributed to improve the standard of living even in the poorest areas of the developing world. For example, nanotech drill bits and tubes allowed deeper water access, preventing massive water shortages. This has bought time to develop more lasting solutions such as nanotech desalinization filters and precision agriculture.

TEF and CyberNow provides the basis for the best educational programming the world could make. Since there is a vast array of materials and beliefs, standards of education differ over the world. It has become common practice to spend $100 million to develop just 10 minutes of educational software that gets used by 2 billion people  –  $0.05 per person.  Many of these programs are subsidized by UNESCO, national development agencies in the poorer regions, and by advertising agencies in the richer areas. The most effective science education programs were ___1.3_______________. There were those who resisted such change and hence, unfortunately, we still have poorly paid teachers, in broken down classrooms, with out-of-date textbooks, providing expensive and inferior schools to some the poorer regions of the world. But for those who welcomed it, the computer-aided brain is becoming as normal to many children around the world as the telephone was to their grandparents, and the computer to their parents.

Today, these education systems diagnose cognitive difficulties via analysis of inquiry patterns, and automatically alter the curriculum. They also diagnose the potential for violent anti-social behavior, and automatically notify child development and mental health authorities, which may have prevented many forms of destructive behaviors -- even terrorism -- later in life. Many have accepted the loss of privacy for the gain in human security.

Progress in biocomputing and neuroscience has provided the technology for implanting computer chips into the human brain, but most people just do not like this concept and prefer to continue improvements in the TEF-CyberNow alternative. However, recent success with nano-bio-transceivers for heath maintenance, flowing with blood through the veins, has given rise to new speculation about future nano-computers that can flow through the brain's capillaries to enhance intelligence.

Customized intelligent personal software agents integrate with so many systems today that it is no longer clear who is giving instructions and who is answering questions. Sometimes it seems that human brains are like little neurons in a global cyber brain. Although human and machine intelligence are quite different, the synergies between them have accelerated collective human-computer intelligence. Some scientists trying to reverse engineer the human brain and complete mathematical models of cognitive processes claim that their work will make it possible to ___1.4________.  Computers have the same computational capacity as the human brain and are able to simulate much of the neural activity of an entire human brain. The senses of sight, hearing, smell, taste, and touch are all duplicated in virtual reality communications.

Meanwhile, the International Science and Technology Organization (ISTO) evolved over the years into a body that has a unique influence on S&T developments. ISTO was organized and managed differently than previous UN institutions. With a small staff and large information systems, it is more accurate to think of the organization as a framework for others to use than a bureaucracy. Its information systems are composed of data banks of other international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, and independent researchers.  

ISTO helps organize the world’s S&T knowledge, information, and data.  It has made the content in these systems far more user-friendly through state-of-the-art virtual reality interfaces and knowledge visualization software. For example, one can quickly "swim" through three-dimensional menus, understand relationships through knowledge visualizations, "dive" into specific research status with a full range of threats and opportunities detailed via linked data bases around the world. One can quickly zoom in from a general overview of carbon sequestration to cost/benefit/time-to-impact calculations from each experimental nanotech carbon processing lab working on fossil fuel energy plants. Investors found these databases helpful in picking smart investments. It is not ISTO staff that updates the information, but a vastly complex set of national academies' peer review teams, professional self-organized groups, university consortia, corporate R&D associations, and combinations of all these, each updating very specific elements of the system. Constant cross-referencing and feedback continues to improve the accuracy, utility, and intelligence of ISTO's systems.

Multinational corporations with large R&D budgets were interested in getting their product and research intentions well documented and clearly communicated to the world; and hence, they cooperated from the beginning in establishing ISTO. Corporations used it as a source of information to help establish strategic alliances for better international market access and lower production costs.

As intelligence increased, science and technology (S&T) accelerated, which in turn further accelerated collective intelligence. With an increased number of intelligent people, the rate of scientific discoveries and technological applications became so fast that by the time government regulations were put into place, the science and technological capacities had moved far beyond the conditions that called for the original regulations. Additionally, S&T activities outlawed in one country quickly moved to others.  Globalization and advanced cyberspace via TEF-CyberNow made it simple to bypass rules by constantly redistributing activities around the world.

Although ISTO started as an information system, governments began to rely on it so heavily that it became an informal regulatory and priority-setting agency by default. In the past, sustainable development was dependent on the ability of government leaders to implement intelligent vision. Today it is more dependent on the synergies and feedback among computer systems. Yet, it remains to be seen if it can continue to be so, as S&T dramatically accelerates even further in the coming years, developing what may become a "mind of its own." For example, some potential disasters were successfully avoided by early warning software that had been integrated into various products and processes. In addition to providing early warning, this intelligent technology managed self-diagnostic and repair systems, and also prompted governments and international organizations to act on their responsibilities.  Which brought up the question of who is really in charge – human or technology?

It also brings up the question of who determines the directions in which science evolves and to what end technology is applied. Such questions are raised in university courses on S&T ethics now required for science and engineering students. Students also have to learn codes of conduct and sign the Scientist's Oath. This interest in ethics has resulted in the growth of S&T special interest groups (SIGs) linked with intelligent software that creates standards and attempts to monitor the S&T enterprise, as part of ISTO's effort to manage scientific risk. No one really "allowed" these SIGs to monitor S&T; they emerged and generated their own power by the quality and responsibility of their work.

ISTO was originally designed to make it easier for anyone to access the world's S&T knowledge along with conjecture about future S&T threats and opportunities. As a result, unexpected as it was, scientists and engineers have become less likely to pursue dangerous activities since the bright light of publicity and information make apparent who is pursuing science for the betterment of the human condition in a rational way, and who is flouting the rules. This exposure influences funding, university hiring, collegial cooperation, and publication within the world S&T community. Basic science still remains relatively free and benefits from this international information utility.

Because the rate of scientific discoveries and technological applications became so fast, some governments became afraid that other countries would develop faster than their own.  They tried to create international regulations to slow down S&T. But these efforts failed, just as the anti-computer communications efforts failed in the 1980s. Anti-science backlash movements were also attempted, but the speed of S&T developments was just too fast and the objections became irrelevant.

Of the 7.8 billion people in 2025, just under 1.4 billion are in India and just over 1.4 billion are in China. As incomes rose in China and India, the global demand for animal protein outstripped conventional supply, until breakthroughs in stem cells for meat production successfully produced muscle tissue on a massive scale without the need to grow animals.  This has lowered costs and environmental impacts of protein production. Meanwhile, other forms of genetically modified foods now account for easily 50% of the world's food because __1.5_______________.

The world environment computer simulation (WECS) from cloud tops to undersea is integrated with the Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) and is publicly accessible so that anyone can know who is polluting what natural resource. GEMS automatically notifies the news media, environmental NGOs, and relevant legal bodies if the impact according to WECS is sufficient to be an environmental crime. In a similar fashion, patterns of financial transactions provide early warnings of potential economic problems as well as identifying money laundering patterns.

By 2015 global warming had increased weather-related damage and changed agricultural and disease patters enough that ___1.6________________.  Hence, cleaner energy systems have received greater attention. Wireless energy transmission has begun to connect new geothermal, wind, and solar energy sources on earth with the orbital power grid via relay satellites and ground receivers. The orbital power grid has also now been strengthened with the first five solar power satellites in orbit, which reduced resources and maintenance per unit of production. Nearly ___1.7___________% of the cars in the world now run on hydrogen, electricity, natural gas, and combinations of these. Deepwater offshore wells became co-production systems that produced natural gas used to generate electricity and beamed it to the orbital power network for global distribution. Such global access and distribution keep competition high and prices low.

Bundles of nanotubes are now strong enough to connect satellites in geosynchronous orbit to earth via "space elevators." Gondolas of people and equipment are lifted into orbit by the counter-force of earth-bound loads gliding back down the nanotubes of the space elevator. These have drastically reduced the cost of many space programs. The International Space Station III that was originally intended to house the space solar power satellite construction crews has been expanded to support construction of tourist hotels, gravity-free health facilities, and retirement centers. Plans are underway for ISS-IV to be a mobile space station to supply Mars settlements and experiment with long-term space flight.

In the 20th century economists said that the rising tide lifts all boats, today we say rising TEFs increase all intelligence. Unfortunately not all ethics were raised, as sometimes the distinctions have blurred among competitive business intelligence, advanced marketing, information warfare, and various forms of organized crime. Privacy and security of information cannot be guaranteed, and attempts to do so may be leading to artificial intelligence beyond our control. Yet people seem more prepared to accept software's invasion of privacy than a human's invasion.

Individuals cross political and corporate boundaries in pico-seconds forming new alliances unknown to traditional power structures. Because the convergence and synergies of genetic engineering, nanotechnology, computational intelligence, and cognitive sciences improved the human condition for the majority of the world by 2025, people have become more habituated than hostile to such advances. The world appears to be moving from political hierarchies to knowledge ecologies that some speculate may be evolving beyond human control.

Although religious and political hierarchies still have much ceremonial control and many social maintenance responsibilities, the real growth of the human mind, technologies, and actions that are building the future seems far too complex, self-organized, and creative to be understood by older systems. The TEF-CyberNow and all that it connects may be evolving a global mind, which can overcome previous ethnocentrisms. However, there is an increasing fear that biological-human intelligence and even human-computer combinations will eventually be outstripped by pure computer intelligence. Interconnections of intelligent software agents act like group behavior of neurons in the human brain associated with thought. Although we now have constant access to knowledge and feedback systems that have increased our functional intelligence, and decision efficiencies seem to have improved with increased transparency and feedback for accountability, it is not yet clear that we will have the wisdom to manage affairs in an increasingly complex civilization. Will the technologies we created end up managing us, as children do when they grow up to take care of their parents in the latter years of their life? Or will human-computer symbioses evolve into a conscious-technology continuum for peace and plenty?

1.A  What changes do you think would make this scenario more useful?




1.B  If you believed the general direction of this scenario is likely, what policies would you recommend for S&T today?





 

Scenario 2. The World Wakes Up

Question 2. Please fill in the blanks in the following scenario.

The murder of 25 million people, over a three-month period in 2021 in the major population areas around the world by the self-proclaimed Agent of God (AOG), finally woke up the world to the realization that an individual acting alone could create and use a weapon of mass destruction.  AOG created the genetically modified Congo virus by using common simulation software and a genetic engineering kit he stole from his university's bio-engineering department. This phenomenon became known as SIMAD (single individual massively destructive).

With acceleration of scientific understandings and miniaturization of technology, fewer and fewer people became able to destroy more and more. It was inevitable that as the capacity for destruction increased, so did the methods for its control. It was a pity that it took such a disaster to finally get real controls established. Even the dirty radiological bomb set off in Nucpolis by the "Paranoid X" in 2009 did not lead to serious controls. It was constructed with materials he purchased from Terrorist International, who in turn got it from a transnational crime network. Although decontamination efforts were massive, downtown sections of the city are still vacant. This and other minor acts by "Terrorists International" did lead to some UN conferences on creating better international controls, but little was done, until AOG struck. Then it was argued that without serious international and governmental controls future catastrophes will be worse. Even R&D managers said ___2.1__________________.

AOG also woke up moral forces around the world that self-organized global digital protests and information warfare that closed down and continue to close down many vulgar entertainment systems seen as key causes of spiritual pollution.

Security risks have shifted from nation-states to terrorist networks, organized crime, and individual maniacs. Since banning all research that could lead to SIMAD technologies would drive it underground and into the arms of transnational organized crime and terrorist groups, usage control policies were adopted instead. The success of the Montréal Protocol that fixed the ozone hole and new international organizations like the World Energy Organization that provided strategic funding for the development of carbon sequestration and energy technologies such as wireless energy transmission, solar power satellites, third generation nuclear power, and cars that run on electricity and fuel cells, made more people optimistic that global systems can work. Without these global efforts few believe we would have met the urban electricity demand that doubled over the last 25 years. And it was done while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and sustaining global economic growth.

The first step that led to the new S&T global control systems began with a series of meetings of eminent persons.  They decided how to control science and technology and limit access to developments that could be applied to SIMAD. The participants were selected through the InterAcademy Panel (composed of national academies of science), the International Council of Scientific Unions, S&T interest groups, Nobel laureates, and private sector R&D firms working in the areas associated with potential catastrophic risks.  The meetings created definitions, guidelines, intervention criteria, drafts for international treaties, and the charter for the International Science and Technology Organization (ISTO). Each time the eminent group reached a consensus on some element of the strategy, it was discussed around the world and created a broader social consensus. This led to treaties and establishing the regulatory power of ISTO in concert with the UN Security Council.

Since then, the Security Council has authorized intervention to terminate lines of scientific inquiry in __2.2__________________on three occasions. But each time, the research lab in question decided to come into ISTO compliance prior to the need for international enforcement. However, direct intervention to prevent SIMAD is far more difficult.

Thus far, there have been three categories of approaches to countering SIMAD: 1) technical monitoring and intervention led by ISTO; 2) human infiltration and informant protocols coordinated by the InterIntelligence Commission; and 3) integration of educational and monitoring systems self-organized among many systems but coordinated by intelligent software overseen by the InterIntelligence Commission. Although there are many examples of mental health AI programs connected to surveillance and educational software systems that work today, universal monitoring has not yet been achieved.  This is partly due to accelerating counter surveillance technology and partly because many treaty negotiators and leaders are just uncomfortable with the idea.

Nevertheless, several counter-SIMAD protocols have begun to work. For example, when the Son of Noah tried to get samples of the mutated Ebola virus, local military who sealed off the infected area under the World Health Organization’s guidance were told by villagers that a stranger was trying to get a bus ticket to the area. SON was quickly arrested and the police in his country were notified, who in turn found Biblical quotes about the Great Flood destroying the world plastered all over his apartment walls. The overwhelming evidence led to the suicide bio-bomber's confession before the International Criminal Court and subsequent incarceration for a crime against humanity by material intention. This reinforced the WHO, FAO, and military cooperative agreements established to counter bioweapons and has also helped to reduce international transfer of diseases. Another SIMAD was prevented by triggering the "off-switch," similar to a three-dimensional nano bar code, imbedded in a nanotech generator, which reacts to a unique frequency and coded pulse sequence. The generator had been set to produce clouds of nano-machines capable of excreting multiple forms of toxic chemicals and biological hazards in airports. The most recent prevention of SIMAD was ____2.3______________.

Today ISTO provides access to governing authorities to monitor biological and chemical storage and transfers. Regulations are effective because enough countries are willing to enforce penalties and the guidance ISTO gave proved profitable to corporations because __2.4________. Although these international regulations strengthened collective security, implementation is still conducted by national authorities. However, when special skills, rapid response time, and ability to act in uncooperative nations are required, the UN Security Council authorizes intervention and the use of international police power.

Information obtained through ISTO helps societies based on complex technological systems to become less vulnerable. The system is a great source of information to media who give better coverage of S&T news, which in turn helps create a better-educated public who elect more enlightened leaders. This international system also provides the definitions and measurement standards for commonly applied tax incentives and labels for more environmentally friendly production in cooperation with WTO. It has also helped the World Environment Organization achieve the authority to declare key habitats off-limits for human development and brought increased attention to ecologically based agriculture in cooperation with FAO and IFAD resulting in reduced agricultural water consumption, energy, and other material inputs per crop. With the polar ice cap, glaciers, and mountain tops already melting in the early 21st century, we couldn't take a chance on further growth in CO2 in the atmosphere, which was projected to increase by 70% between 2000 and 2025.Thus carbon sequestration was required and cleaner energy systems are growing.

Unfortunately, counters to some potential nanotech problems are still missing. Just as some computer hackers created viruses for fun that caused serious damage to computers around the world, so too there is a growing worry that immature nanotech hobbyists might one day create autonomous, foraging self-replicators by mating nanofactory kits with robotics kits to allow foraging and "lab on a chip" technology to perform preliminary chemical processing that could cause extraordinary damage.

Although the speed of S&T may have slowed due to the increased regulation of everything from genetically modified organisms to nanotechnology, progress is still so fast that the media are always full of amazing innovations in medicine, transportation, and education that have vastly improved general human welfare over the past 25 years. Some argue that the global registry of S&T research and its forecasting and assessment sections in ISTO actually improved many prioritization processes, which ultimately benefited more people for less money.

Although the technical means did prevent several SIMADs, no one was convinced that technology alone could keep the world safe. Many began to call for massive efforts to raise consciousness and improve education. They pointed out that we have never funded education as we do defense--and today, education is defense. A great deal is known about how the brain works and how powerful ideas influence behavior, but little has been applied. People began to ask how to “infect” enough of humanity with memes (influential contagious ideas) for tolerance to stamp out stupidity. Could ignorance and intolerance be treated like a disease?  Two effective memes were “Intelligence can be improved like eye sight,” and __2.5____________________.

Meme applications experts teamed-up with cognitive scientists, epidemiologists, and swarm information technology designers to create R&D strategies that produced the means to accelerate collective intelligence and increase tolerance for diversity. The UNU studies that identified the social, cultural, philosophical, neurological, ethnopharmaceutical, and religious factors that increased and decreased SIMAD, were integrated into the educational monitoring systems. However, we struggle daily with the question: how to prevent the dangerous uses of science and technology without stepping on free inquiry and human rights?

Human nature is not likely to change quickly, but human behaviors can. And so great lobbying campaigns led by coalitions of universities, multinational corporations, and NGOs encouraged governments and media to rise to the challenge.

Globally interconnected programs were created to increase intelligence of the general public via universal feedback systems using new applications of advanced cognitive science such as ___2.6_________. Low cost nano-transceivers for personalized global access to both educational materials and cyber tourism were often given away as a marketing ploy, which allowed access to thousands of interlinked educational cyber-games and ads that said "smart people use smart products and smart products make you smarter."

Kits to customize nutritional supplements for mental health and increase learning were made available by food industries in many developing countries to get better international market access. The goal is to create a world in which all people could have the equivalent of at least a secondary education and eventually a university degree. There were many global ethics conferences and multi-media events, which helped much of the world to realize that all cultures valued justice, respect, honesty, compassion, fairness, and responsibility. This realization helped increase tolerance for cultural diversity.

Global assessments of educational curricula were the keys to change. Every jurisdiction, every state and town, every ethnic group thought it’s approach to education was correct and its right to teach its version of truth inviolable. SIMAD changed that. Global guidelines brought more rational thinking to the design of curricula. Now because nearly all information and educational systems are constantly subject to international cross-referencing and feedback, information accuracy has helped reduce intolerance. The increasing emphasis on science, participatory democracy, and creativity has also reinforced this change. With more precise information, and less prejudicial misinformation arising from ignorance and frustrations from injustice, more room was made for the expression of altruistic ideals.

Although intolerance still exists more among the illiterate or inappropriately educated adult population, some believe that the aging society itself is a maturing influence that helps to increase tolerance. Although adults did not directly benefit from the new elementary and secondary educations systems, they did get some gain from it. Older people wishing to keep in contact with their children and grandchildren had to access young people's cyber experiences of multi-cultural life and a more tolerant world in cyberspace. With an increasingly educated world, entertainment systems had to increase their knowledge content to be competitive; hence, some entertainment is finally affecting some of the adult populations. For example__2.7_______.

However, not all religions have given up the idea that they are the sole possessor of Truth, but with increasing universal interactive media access, religions have generally accepted that a broader worldview is important and inevitable. Although religious antagonisms are not yet eliminated, international polls have shown that approximately _2.8______% agree that religious preferences should no longer claim exclusive truth.

The international focus on human security -- freedom from fear -- as the new organizing principle for world affairs has helped strategic cooperation to improve living conditions. This has fostered international efforts that is reducing social exclusion and increasing access to the benefits of society, which has reduced social conflict.  But it is not enough to prevent the mentally ill or religious fanatics from becoming SIMAD. As a result some leaders have begun to advocate that the threat is so great that it is time to connect advanced computer education systems with the security and monitoring systems. Although universal lie detection software has already been integrated into all international transaction systems, some wanted to go further. The idea of integrating education and security systems had previously been proposed as the third category of SIMAD prevention, but it was never fully implemented. Experiments supervised by UNICEF did show that connecting educational systems and security monitoring allowed early detection of signs of intolerance. Insights in cognitive science about fear and intolerance had begun to be integrated into some computer-assisted instruction. Although this was disturbing to many people, individual acts of mass destruction thus far have been prevented where this integration of education and security was applied.

2.A  What changes do you think would make this scenario more useful?







2.B If you believed the general direction of this scenario is likely, what policies would you recommend for S&T today?






Scenario 3. Please Turn off the Spigot

Question 3. Please fill in the blanks in the following scenario.

I am writing this memoir on the last day of the year 2025. Earlier this evening I accepted a great honor from TIME Magazine, the Man of the Year they called it.  What a great evening it's been. At the Time award banquet they called me an anti-science hero. Well, I guess I can see how they might think that.  

Tonight I overheard someone call me a neo-Unabomber and another, a Luddite. What insults. I am, in reality all for science- it is after all largely responsible for our life, gives zest to discovery, creates careers for aspiring fresh minds, helps us understand who we are and why we are- but the science I support is responsible science and there's very little of that around.  

They called me a guru. In Brazil, my home, that has a religious connotation and I guess that's not too far off the mark, either.  How many times have I argued that science and religion are parallel, but with different epistemologies: both seeking reasons for being, both having Popes, confessors and professors, both trying to influence values and education. True or false, religion gives hope and absolution, but science is rigid and its rules only give an appetite for more invention. In another time and place I might have taken the vows, but my mission is to make the world see that the way science is generally conducted can lead, is in fact leading, us in a destructive spiral which amplifies itself through a vicious feedback on the way down

What's wrong with the enterprise today? Well, I won't go into a discussion of its snobbish isolation, separate language, private club-like rules of admission here. Science is generally amoral; what percentage of scientists ever worry about the larger and perhaps negative consequences of their work? I would guess __3.1.___% percent.  What percentage actually elects to abandon their projects when they perceive negative consequences may result from it? Damned few I'd say, maybe __3.2 _____% of those who are concerned at all.

Suffice it to say that today most science works hand in hand with global corporations and together they encourage excesses in consumption – intended or not -- even in poor countries. By funding large scale scientific projects important social objectives that science could help solve are pushed aside. Take ____3.3 _____________ for example. Science could be at work on this but lack of funding, lack of interest, lack of a potential profit have essentially excluded this line of inquiry. Instead the science/corporate complex locks the world into a neo-colonialism that is based on consumption, for people that live in rich countries as well as poor.

The real and immediate danger of the way science is run today is the host of unexpected consequences that flow from it.  For the first time in history, smart kids with a little ingenuity and a bio-chemistry set, the kind parents put under the Christmas tree, can destroy their communities.  And most of the damage, despite being called "unexpected consequences" is in fact predictable. Consider the damage done to the global ecosystem through the release of uncontrolled genetically modified organisms. We knew the danger, didn't we?

And consider ___3.4  ___________________. We knew that danger too, but proceeded with great hubris. And look what happened. Now we have to live with ___3.5 _________________.

Do you remember?  After I graduated, I worked with a team of scientists, attempting to create a genetically engineered virus to combat common pests. We stumbled across a mechanism that could potentially increase the killing power of a host of human diseases. Working with mice and the disease mousepox, we inserted a gene for interleukin-4 (IL-4) into the test virus. IL-4 ordinarily boosts the production of antibodies in mice and thus should have increased the resistance of the mice to mousepox. But we found that the IL-4 version of the virus greatly increased lethality. What applied to mice and mousepox, could apply to humans and smallpox.  Without intending to do so, we had created a bio-weapon, which could be used to intensify human diseases and override inoculation. I argued that we should bury the results--they were too dangerous. But, arguing that if we held up publication, someone else would do it anyway, the paper was printed.

And sure enough terrorists took it up as their own and extorted a billion dollars to assure the destruction of the super strain they created. This was the basis for the now famous "virus plots" of 2013 that resulted in massive, unnecessary deaths. Incidentally that caper funded the terrorism for decades. They created "black market" laboratories that were a clear and present danger.  Legitimate corporations supported these laboratories and experiments without understanding their true nature. Bio-accident scandals, threats of mass destruction, suicide robots, kills of humans, animals, and plants, destruction of food and water supplies, creation of artificial oases of peace and ecstasy (based on new insights into cognitive processes) that promised escape but trapped instead, and ___3.6 _____________________________.

To be perfectly clear, it wasn't only the "black market" labs that caused the problems; some scientists took it on themselves to proceed with research that had obviously dangerous uses and consequences. If there was concern in one lab, others were ready enough to take up the work if funding was available or careers were to be made.
 
The mega disaster was clear enough. The urgent need for reform hardly needed a spokesperson. It was this mega disaster, seeming to occur all at once,  that triggered public reaction. We saw it everywhere: religious groups, the environmentalists, the anti-gloablizers, the health enthusiasts, the anti-nuclear advocates. Many scientists helped raise the alarm. At first it seemed that there was no focus, that the "anti's" all had their own agendas. But if I may say so, that is where my leadership helped. Despite the seductive promises of scientific discovery (which I support, incidentally), the disparate forces came together with a common theme: reform--reform of the processes by which science is directed. The reform began with lots of self-examination. "How have we failed?" "Is education at fault?" "Are our scientists morally deficient?" ___3.7____________________?"

All of this happened when science was "hot."  Biotechnology was giving us one breakthrough after another. The genetic origins of behavior were being articulated, and bio-tech was being used to build new kinds of weapons of mass destruction. Biodiversity suffered from aggressive marketing of genetically altered, patented varieties. Cognitive sciences was moving ahead; there was much greater insight into functioning of the brain but without much improvement in decision making. Computers were gaining awareness. S&T was globalizing; scientists in poor countries were conducting much of the leading edge research since many of the frontier projects were inexpensive and could be performed in small labs. In addition the vastly improved communications made it quite practical for geographically dispersed teams to function efficiently. Interdisciplinary research was flourishing. Applied nano technology was being used in products and in labs to perform quantum feats of what would have been called magic only two decades earlier. And, in addition, ___3.8 ______________________.

But many new scientific discoveries were being distorted from their original intent deliberately or through inadvertence, and these "slip-ups" provided, in the end, new means for killing large numbers of people, capturing or controlling behavior, and forming or distorting broadly accepted ideas. The early promises of disease cures were real and well intentioned but in the end, the overly optimistic projections were often just a means for increasing funding or explaining the high price of drugs and new products.

I recognized that there was a latent distrust of science in the real world, that there were a handful of like-minded scientists around the world. I turned to the Internet, and took to the streets and to the corridors of power. The time for reform was right.  People around the world began to feel that adequate safeguards were not in place and called for political action. I said, in effect, enough is enough and with all modesty I can say that as a result of this early political work, the International Commission of Science was finally formed in 2019. This Commission was designed to review controversial research proposals, establish risk limits, issue permits for risky experimentation, and indict scientists that stepped over the bounds established by the commission. I think the notion of indictment was driven by pubic fear of the unknown; it reflected the public's desire to hold someone responsible and punish them for the science based disasters. It was funded by __3.9  ______________________.

But the Commission was flawed. It was at first argued that the Commission should have only scientists on its panels, but this was seen as too self-serving, so membership was extended to include politicians, journalists, diplomats, and __3.10 ___________________. Politics and greed stood in the way of true risk assessment. Funding was king; enough funding could buy a lot of risk. Also, penalties handed down to individual scientists were almost a mark of honor. This was a personal defeat for me who had been so instrumental in bringing the Commission into being.

Three years passed during which I switched from supporter to critic of the Commission. I was finally able to expose the corruption. It sounds a little odd now but my slogan reached around the world, on Internet sites, in public hearings, in parliaments. This helped swing opinion  "Everywhere the air stinks from corruption. The management of science has failed, give us management of science." The new Commission has just begun its operation on a new footing. It utilizes a new artificial intelligence program that is incorruptible and provides the first level of checks and balances by detecting self-dealing. The program also facilitates R&D fund allocation without human favoritism getting in the way of fairness and objectivity. The Commission's design is not perfect, but the new Commission's design is based on the idea that it is possible to reduce corruption with a carefully designed system in which its people are both independent and accountable to a democratic oversight body. The anti-corruption strategies also include very high salaries for the Commissioners, term limits, transparency and public visibility, __3.11 _______, and  ___3.12 ___________ . Whether they can produce the needed results is yet to be seen. They are indeed the new high priests and we must remember that power corrupts.

Ancillary measures in the reform package which I consider important include revision of university curricula to include explicit attention to ethics in science, inclusion of adverse impact analysis in every grant, continuous monitoring of the state of the art in many selected fields, and ___3.13_____________.

This year, one scandal in particular has captured the public's attention. The Brazil Institute of Security (BIS) uncovered a sophisticated covert laboratory at a prominent Brazilian university engaged in the development of an unidentified but apparently lethal airborne toxin, a super anthrax. The laboratory directors held that the research was legitimate but when asked by the BIS to produce information about the sponsors of the work, they could only point to a shell pharmaceutical corporation known to BIS to be affiliated with terrorist causes. They said they were ignorant of the terrorist ties. " Naiveté is no excuse," said the BIS. Several activists, including myself, have called for prosecution of the directors of the university laboratory and researchers, charging them with aiding in the development of weapons of mass destruction. The case is yet unresolved. But I think we'll win.

In any event it was quite an evening and I remain optimistic that science can achieve its promise and with luck and planning we can all survive its unintentional mistakes.

Jacobo Minskov
December 31, 2025

3.A  What changes do you think would make this scenario more useful?





3.B  If you believed the general direction of this scenario is likely, what policies would you recommend for S&T today?




Scenario 4.  Backlash

Question 4.  Please fill in the blanks in the following scenario.

The best science is free science
Pro science is con-science
Science directed is science enslaved
Science is your friend: it makes the future
___4.1__________________________________

These are some of the slogans on the signs that scientists carried in protest at the Jakarta World Summit on Science and Technology in 2020. The principal topic of discussion was the need for instituting some sorts of world control over the directions of science and technology.. Supporters of the establishment of a global regulatory body to guide science and restrain its possible dangers included a few scientists- some of them quite notable- but mainly included an unusual coalition of environmentalists, detractors of globalization, and __4.2 ______________. They were eloquent and had two basic arguments: first they wanted to avoid some of the threats that advanced  science and technology could bring, and second, they wanted to have the ability to direct science and technology toward the solutions of pressing societal issues.

In the first category, those arguing for regulation of science listed physical threats such as the sorcerer's apprentice syndrome: self-replicating nanotechnology over running the planet. They also cited possible terrorist uses of biotechnology in weapons of mass destruction, and in their papers addressed the possibility of a single individual gaining access to WMD. There was also concern about the possibility of the accidental creation of deleterious life forms, and ___4.3 ___________. They pointed out that novel organisms many times more virulent than those presently known (e.g. organisms with the combined potential of HIV, smallpox and Ebola, all rolled in one) were on the drawing board and the world's experience with smallpox gave one little confidence that the viruses would stay in the bottle. For many people at the conference, moral threats also played an important role, threats such as human cloning and __4.4_________.

The second category, they argued, was missed opportunities such as a Manhattan-type project to develop cheap, efficient, environmentally benign, non-nuclear fission and non-fossil energy sources, or simple, inexpensive, effective medicines and corresponding delivery systems to treat widespread diseases and epidemics, or improving the sources and efficiency of water use. Other opportunities could have been the deepening of our understanding of climate change and solutions, or improvements in early detection and tracking of pandemics and __4.5________________. "  The need for such developments is self-evident," they said. Why then," they asked, "isn't science giving us what we need?"

Ten respected Nobel Prize winners rose to respond. Their arguments were direct and forceful. With respect to the course of research and its attendant risks they said, “All progress carries some risk. The directions of science, pure science, are determined by the quest for knowledge and understanding. Expanding the frontiers of science has given us health, long life, and for most people of the world, abundance and comfort. Certainly, there are some risks associated with the enterprise of science as it pushes us into unknown territories but where these risks exit, the disciplines themselves are capable of self-regulation and are alert to risks. To regulate on a global scale would require regulators more insightful than the scientists doing the research.” Furthermore, they said, the analysis tools of the regulators were inadequate to the job.

In her famous speech to the hushed assembly, Nobel Laureate Antoinette Plebus said, "Were there to be a regulatory commission and were I to be appointed to serve on its panel, I would tremble with fear. Why? Because, I would fear that I did not know enough to tell my colleagues what they could or could not do. I would fear that I could not foresee consequences that would ultimately make their research worthwhile or worthless. I would fear that my evaluation tools would be inadequate. How can one evaluate moral issues, of, say human stem cell research when half the world feels that is a violation of a sacred process, and the other half pleads for the medical breakthroughs that the research might yield? How can one evaluate the value of research that has promise but carries an infinitesimal risk-- a vanishingly small risk--of irreparable damage? I would fear that economies would no longer be as robust as they might have been if innovation is limited by regulation of science. I fear that research outlawed in one place would simply move elsewhere--and if outlawed globally, would move underground. But I would fear, most of all, being regulated myself, limiting my horizon and the horizon of mankind, by fear of the unknown."

They still remember the cheers the delegates gave to her speech. Of course, the acclaim resulted in rejection of the notion of global regulation of science and the delegates from 187 nations signed a resolution recommending that the disciplines themselves to set up a regulatory apparatus that seemed appropriate to their fields. The resolution known as the Principles of Inviolability of Science (or simply "Principles") recognized the autonomy of science and charged the disciplines themselves with the responsibility of determining the "line in the sand" that defined acceptable risks in their fields. It also charged them with defining the rules of ethical behavior and the disciplinary action that would be imposed on scientists that crossed the bounds of acceptable behavior. Finally, it __ 4.6________________________.

Science blossomed under the Principles. One discovery after another made the news. Genetic medicines were developed and widely used. Diseases were cured, one after the other, or if not cured then at least controlled. Automatic assistants (robots) blossomed and formed huge new global markets. New nano and giga scale technology appeared and with little fanfare was incorporated in common and esoteric systems from coffee makers to quantum computers. Energy research was making good progress.  Developing countries found their niches in the expanding technological envelope and to a large extend the brain drain was stemmed. Universities taught science ethics. It was truly the golden age of science and the technology that flowed from it, accelerated by liberal funding, the need of industry for new products, synergy among disciplines, and the advertising and media hype that said more is better and change is good.

But __4.7 ________years into this idealized world of accelerated science, it became apparent the Principles had their dark side. The golden age of science proved to be a mixture of good, bad, and illusion. It started as isolated criticism by intellectuals and grew to a river of doubt by populations in general. Like-minded people around the world compared notes, reinforced opinions, argued and concluded that more is often not better and not all change is good. Some of the most valued discoveries and new capabilities had cost security and privacy, and produced a kind of imposed rationality that was antithetical to many cultures. Directed and unthinking consumption ruled lives, but this counterculture argued that human society itself should determine what is good and proper.

The voices of discontent, however, became most strident and persuasive when a small country took advantage of some of the most modern technologies to kill, threaten and extort. A border dispute had been in progress between Beret and Stetson for many years, skirmishes often killing a few dozen soldiers on one side or the other. Then, according to the World Health Organization, a new disease, much like the anti-biotic resistant pneumonia of 2003, was discovered in the border region.  Curiously it killed people only on the Beret side of the border; residents only five miles distant in Stetson were somehow immune. WHO soon found that the disease was a weapon and that Stetson had inoculated its soldiers that might be exposed. When exposed by WHO, they offered the therapy, but only on the condition that their border claims were recognized by Beret. "Blackmail, extortion,” claimed Beret, but they capitulated. In the meantime, as might be expected, the disease spread beyond the region and only through the rapid work of international organizations was a major epidemic averted.

Now the opposition had impetus and momentum grew for reform. Papers appeared on-line, the most important of which was titled: The Fallacy of the Principles. It echoed the earlier arguments of Theodore Kaczinsky and Bill Joy that we must control technology (and by implication, science) or it will control us.  The media soon took up the Fallacy arguments and the level of public concern rose and became even more vocal.  

Last year, the Jakarta 2 conference was convened. Outside there were signs that read:

Kill science before it kills us
Science is Inhuman.
Preserve the best of the past
Culture is destiny; use it or lose it
__4.8 _____________________________

Again the scientists had persuasive arguments. "Has our work in this unfettered environment not given the world disease cures, happiness, freedom from drudgery?" they asked.  But this time the Brazilian, Jacobo Minskov, rose to tell the audience this story. Some still think it was only a parable, others think it true. He said, "At a high energy particle accelerator, a scientist  proposed an experiment that had an extremely low probability of creating a mini black hole. If this were the result of the experiment, the solar system including the earth, and its life might be extinguished. The laboratory argued that the experiment should proceed because the chances of creating a black hole are very slight and the data to be gained will fundamentally improve our knowledge of the first 30 microseconds after the big bang.  After a review panel of like minded scientists approved the experiment, they decided to proceed and then held their breath as the beam was turned on. The world did not end.

"But," Minskov continued, "it might have. That uncertainty is not worth any advancement of knowledge. Is this the kind of decision we want scientists to make on their own?"  The audience rose as one and responded, "No."

The Jakarta 2 resolution was signed by almost the same array of 187 nations as signed the Principles. The new resolution establishes a global science commission. The conference ended with an attitude of "We'll see how it works."

It worked badly or not at all. Almost all of Dr. Plebus' concern of decades earlier proved true.  The regulators needed the opinions of the very scientists they were sworn to direct.  The evaluation tools were inadequate. The moral issues were interminable and divisive. With innovation throttled, economies slowed, innovations became more proprietary than ever, research turned to easy targets, work not possible in one place moved elsewhere, promoting brain drain, frustrating loyalties, and __4.9__________. Horizons shrank and with the diminished goals, poverty rose and the safety zone of reduced risk that global regulation was supposed to provide proved not to be safe at all.

People now ask what's next?


4.A  What changes do you think would make this scenario more useful?





4.B  If you believed the general direction of this scenario is likely, what policies would you recommend for S&T today?




Please provide additional comments on any of the four scenarios (Please indicate the number of the scenario with your comments.)

Please list your primary institutional affiliation and address below: (No attributions will be made, but we need to know for demographic analysis and where to mail the 2003 State of the Future):

Your Name: Title:

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Are you a futurist___ natural scientist___ social scientist___ computational Scientist___ engineer__

R&D manager___ policymaker___ consultant___ other ____________

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Thank you for your participation. You will receive the results in a couple of months.


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