III Technological Capacity

Scenario 1. S&T Develops a Mind of its Own
The rate of scientific discoveries and advanced technological applications exploded. A global science/social feedback system was at work: science made people smarter, and smarter people made better and faster science. Better and faster science opened new doors to discovery, and new doors led to synergies and solving of old roadblocks. Removing the roadblocks created new science that made people smarter. S&T moved so fast that government and international regulations were left in the dust. Science and technology appeared to be taking on a mind of its own.
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Scenario 2. The World Wakes Up
The murder of 25 million people in 2021 by a self-proclaimed Agent of God who created the genetically modified Congo virus finally woke the world up to the realization that an individual acting alone could create and use a weapon of mass destruction. This phenomenon became known as SIMAD—Single Individual Massively Destructive. Regulatory agencies and mechanisms were put into place to control the science- and technology-related dangers that became apparent. Education was a big part of the answer, but connecting the educational systems with the security systems was disturbing to some people. Nevertheless, further individual acts of mass destruction were prevented. International and government regulations did manage the S&T enterprise for the public good.
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Scenario 3. Please Turn off the Spigot
Science was attacked as pompous and self-aggrandizing, as encouraging excesses in consumption, raising false hopes and—worse—unexpected consequences that could destroy us all. Particularly worrisome was accidentally or intentionally released genetically modified organisms and the potential for weapons of mass destruction. The poor were ignored. A science guru arose to galvanize the public. A global commission was established but failed because of corruption. But a new commission with built-in safeguards seemed to be working.
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Scenario 4. Backlash
Control was low and science moved fast, but negative consequences caused public alarm. The golden age of science was hyped by the media, but it all proved to be a chimera. Some of the most valued
discoveries and new capabilities had a downside and surprises abounded. Rogue nations took advantage of some of these shortcomings. The level of concern rose. Mobs protested. Regulation failed.
Progress stalled. And corporate (or government) scientists frequently felt pressure from within their organizations. Both corporate and government organizations could not be counted on to self-regulate.
What’s next?
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The Invisible Future: The Seamless Integration of Technology Into Everyday Life. Peter Denning, Editor, 2002, McGraw-Hill
Chapter: An Ambient Intelligent Home Scenario. Authors: Emile Aarts, Rick Harwig, and Martin Schuurmans

(Emile is department head of the Media Interaction Group of the Philips Research Laboratories Eindhoven. Rich Harwig is managing director, Philips Research Eindhoven. Martin Schuurmans is executive Vice President of the Philips Centre for Industrial Technology).

In this scenario, the authors describe life at home in the future. The home is “intelligent,” filled with technological gadgets that keep its occupants in touch with each other and themselves.
Ellen, the fictional main character returns home from work. The intelligent security system recognizes her and automatically unlocks the door. As she enters the home, the “house map” indicates the locations of both her spouse (who is in Paris) and child (who is in the playroom). In the kitchen, the “family memo board” indicates there are messages to which Ellen must attend: one is from the refrigerator, requesting confirmation on the grocery list before it is sent to the supermarket; another is relaying information she requested regarding holiday cottages in Spain. Ellen connects via video screen to speak with her daughter in the playroom and to her husband in Paris for a viewing of the art he intends to buy. Thinking of dinner, she views the display of menus that are based upon the food currently in the refrigerator and pantry.
Later that evening, Ellen works out to her own personalized routine and watches as the virtual presenter relays the information that has collected on the home server during the day. In the bathroom, the mirror does a quick check up for weight gain and protein levels. After scanning the next day’s agenda, the intelligent wake up system asks Ellen for her desired wake up time and wake up experience.

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The Invisible Future: The Seamless Integration of Technology Into Everyday Life. Peter Denning, Editor, 2002, McGraw-Hill. Chapter: Engineering the Ocean. Author: Marcia K. McNutt (President & CEO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, President of American Geophysical Union)

In this chapter, author Marcia McNutt describes a future of oceanography the will have a “fundamentally different strategy”: the use of autonomous observatories, drifters, and rovers to explore the oceans and return important data. She supposes that within the next few decades, because of the information these systems can return that we will “understand, or at least think we understand, how the climate system works, what limits ocean productivity, the complete ecology of commercial fish species, and the other mysteries of the ocean.” This understanding could lead to predictions of the “weather” of the oceans.
By 2025, Ms McNutt indicates low-cost drifters will have been riding the ocean’s currents for decades, each relaying its position and the water’s ambient temperature and salinity via satellite to a central data processing facility. “The data from these drifters are combined with meteorological data and immediately integrated in a massive global ocean model that predicts the "weather" of the ocean: temperatures, currents, locations and velocities of fronts, and so on. The models are run forward into the future to provide forecasts for shipping companies, naval operations, and the growing number of multinational companies that have commercial operations in the ocean.” The data, combined with improved models, will provide fairly reliable forecasts for periods of a week or more; and when run further into the future, will be helpful in “predicting overall heating and cooling of the ocean, major changes in poleward heat transports and variations in the intensity of the boundary currents. This information is vital to farmers in deciding what crops to plant based on projections of temperature and rainfall from the ocean climate model. Much of the guesswork in the global commodities market (will have) disappeared once the global ocean climate forecasts became generally available.”
In Ms McNutt’s scenario during 2025, the computer model also indicates the probability of a massive El Nino, one that may be most extreme event of its kind ever recorded. “Even more worrisome, a forward projection of the climate models predicts that the El Nino will lead to an unusually warm winter and summer in the northeastern Atlantic, causing further melting of the Greenland ice sheet, already destabilized by global warming.” The warming triggered by the El Nino could take the planet into another ice age.
Fearful citizens will be demanding action from their governments. Governments consider “dumping a tanker of oil in the western Indian Ocean to decouple the ocean from the anomalous wind stress, thereby averting or at least lessening the impact of the El Nino” or constructing dams “across the streams that drain the Greenland ice sheet to prevent the water from reaching the ocean.”

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Street Trends: How Today’s Alternative Youth Cultures are Creating Tomorrow’s Mainstream Markets. Author: Janine Lopiano-Misdom and Joanne De Luca, 1997, HarperCollins Pub.

“The distant future – it’s kind of scary, but I imagine the future as a scene out of The Terminators, where there’s people versus people. I think the street people are going to continue to grow, and I think the more sophisticated people are going to stay indoors. I think there is going to be a major separation between the two.” Attusa, 24, student, LA

“In the future, everything will be back like it used to be with the earth like a garden, just because that’s where real happiness is and peace – in nature…” Jade, 22, student, LA

“Oh, the future is all about computers and new media, but I think the real new media is probably person to person or better communication. That more valuable than the Internet will ever be…” Myles, 22, student, San Diego

“2010? 2020? I think it’s just gonna be faster communication – faster than it is now. Still don’t see governments changing that much to do great causes. This whole capitalistic greed will still be around – people will be killing each other for money, wherever it is. The US might not be the US anymore – might not have as much power as we do now. 2020 … it’s hard to say because I think other countries are definitely coming up with economic power – the Asian block, the European block – it’s gonna be interesting who’s gonna be making global influences then.” Lee, 22, web site designer, Austin TX

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Chronicle of the Future (website)
www.chronicle-future.co.uk

Chronicle of the Future offers a virtual “World’s Fair” of futures – complete with frankenfoods Bill Gates’ clone and “personcopters” (single-seat hybrid helicopter/planes). Dubbed “Tomorrow’s News Today” the website offers a stunning array of scenario vignettes from 2000 – 2050, each structured as a news article of the future and organized by 20 topic areas (such as business, crime, ecology, media, personalities, sport, technology and war). The following is an excerpt from a scenario in the year 2026 titled “Magic touch, son”: “Remember 'land football'? FIFA, the game's world governing body, has finally acknowledged virtual reality football as a sport in its own right. The decision follows the latest release of Top Score, the VR game from software company K. Broadcast rights to the game have been snapped up by WorldWeb, which plans to screen a monthly big match from the world VR football league. It expects a global audience of at least 2 billion. WW monitors the current rankings of VR teams and their
players and then selects the games featuring the most exciting sides for broadcast. K's holograph technology allows the players to maintain a speed and style of game impossible to match on a real pitch - and without any risk of injury, so there will be no opportunity for star players to linger on the treatment table. Although WW is starting out on a monthly basis - provided the players can stay awake - the number of games that can be played in a season is practically limitless. And likewise, the earnings potential of the top players is almost infinite.”

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Spacecast 2020, vol.1 Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, June 1994. Authors: Prepared by the students and faculty of Air University.

In May 1993, the chief of staff of the United States Air Force directed Air University to undertake a study to identify capabilities for the period of 2020 and beyond and the technologies to enable them which will best support preserving the security of the United States. The scenarios are based on three “dimensions” of the future world: the number of actors playing a role in space; the will of the actors to use space; and the technological proliferation and growth and economic vitality of the actors, or their technomic capability.

Scenario 1) Spacefaring World: “The Spacefaring world is characterized by many actors with a strong desire to be involved in space. This world also has high technomic vitality representing the capability to be involved in space. The Spacefaring world is characterized by many actors with strong desires to engage in space-related activity enabled by vast economic growth and proliferation and ebullient technological vitality. Specifically, the government is one of many actors in the Spacefaring world where individuals, transnationals, and supranationals are all highly active and competitive within a stable interdependent environment. Free trade and a global industrial policy stimulate technomic vigor. Space investment is an economic reality with wide economic opportunity available to many. In this world, space activity is proliferated, global, and expanding and the military is involved across the board, even though the militarization of space is limited.

Scenario 2) Rogue World: Rogue world. This is a world in which there are few actors with a desire to be in space and limited technological and economic capability, but the will of some actors to be involved in space will be very high. . The features of this world are characterized by a few space actors, low technomic vitality, and a strong will for involvement by some. The interesting actors are principally states and political actors. There will be few space entrepreneurs in this world, and the international political system will be characterized by shifting alliances. The low technomic vitality will be evidenced by tiered shifting economies, protectionism, and embargoes against the rogues. These rogues will be willing to sacrifice domestic needs to preserve national security and to receive the prestige associated with space activity. [Technologically], few breakthroughs are evident [in this world]. As a result of the lack of cooperation associated with the spread of scientific knowledge, this world has limited or little advanced propulsion. The use of space in the Rogue world is limited, but leaders of such a state perceive it to be critical. The military's role in space is on the rise. Counterforce potential is very high and increasing, particularly with the development of highly capable anti-satellite weapons (ASAT). The military's logistical role in space is moderate and characterized by limited activity and infrastructure. On the other hand, the military's role in monitoring and reporting is high. The relationship between civilian and government space activity is weak and the amount of activity has been essentially low. There is almost no human activity in space.”

Scenario 3) Mad Max Incorporated: Mad Max Incorporated world is characterized by many actors with a strong desire to be in space, but actors who are limited by very low technomic vitality. The dominant space actors are corporate rather than political entities. This world is very competitive and potentially conflictual. Space actors in the Mad Max Incorporated world are predominantly corporations. Governments in this world have become welfare states or welfare guardians. The low technomic vitality is characterized by the continuous shifting of internal corporate resource allocations as companies move money from state to state to meet their needs. Trade is moderate, and corporations are pursuing profits while states are focused on domestic needs. Technology development and its proliferation are irregular. Wide-scale political and social space vision has been lost. Political leaders have abandoned space to corporations seeking a niche in space. Political leaders explain away this lack of policy by claiming that the cost of space is too high and the taxpayers are not willing to foot the bill. Instead, political leadership is increasingly consumed by reactions to crises relating to welfare, health, and protection of the environment.

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The Future of M-Commerce DTN Network. Credit for this work is acknowledged to the following students of ENPC MBA program, Paris, France; class of 2000: Fenella Davis, Sebastian Wossagk, Giancarlo Giangola, Ripu Daman Singh, Misako Oki, and Magnus Sande.

These four scenarios represent a range of driving forces on the future of mobile-commerce (m-commerce). These forces were placed within a scenario matrix spectrum with the vertical axis displaying the extremes of global acceptance of mobile-commerce to global resistance of mobile-commerce; the horizontal axis displaying the extreme of fragmentation of m-commerce in the marketplace and the globalization of m-commerce in the marketplace on the other extreme.

Scenario One: Global Mobile (acceptance and globalization). January 31, 2005
7:30 Wake Up “My wife called me on my mobile from downstairs to wake me up. She used her own mobile hanging on the wall and said that breakfast was ready. We smiled at each other on the screens of our mobiles. I took a quick shower and went to the dining room. I wear the multi-functional "wrist-mobile" for 24 hours a day since my life, both business and social, is completely controlled by it. Our children also came into the room and started playing with the game on their mobiles. I was reading the "e-newspapers" and ëe-mailsí, and called my business partners to confirm today's meeting. In actual fact I don't have to go to the office and see people face-to-face since "tele-working" and "tele-conferencing" are the current trends of working style. So my company employees basically work at their homes and communicate with each other through the big screen sets. My children have also their own mobiles and take them to the school. On the way to my office, I was stuck in a traffic jam, but as the built-in music player on my mobile was playing I did not get irritated.”

9:00 Arrive at Office “I needed to double-check my business diary for today's schedule on my mobile. I prepared for today's work carefully, and still I had 40 minutes to spare before my first meeting so I checked my account balance and financial market through my mobile. My "e-wallets" told me that I could afford to buy additional shares. I quickly switched the mode to the internet on my mobile, confirmed the market trend and decided to execute the trade. "Mobile banking" is very popular and its security system of data transfer is fully guaranteed. The mobile phone is now in wide-spread use driven by demand from not only personal users but also business users looking for increased flexibility and productivity. Now is the year 2005, the mobile phone is combined with everything, not only computers, internet and business but also television & radio and even music ! In addition to that, we can do business and regular checkups. Still it is getting cheaper, smaller and lighter with high functionality so people can choose from many kinds of mobile phones.”

10:00 Meeting “I went to the meeting room and had a "tele-conference". We have so many issues that we have to deal with. We analyzed our competitors within the same industry and the discussion was getting heated after 1 hour. One of my business partners suggested that we should take account of the government's policy. Surely it really has a big affect on the business community and the government is highly aware of the internet and "e-commerce" as they are likely to change the economic system as a whole. I put particular emphasis on the mobile phone because I believe that this is the most useful and convenient technology. Global standardization ñ a world-wide information infrastructure - is set in almost all countries now. We are heading into the digital world more and more. The driving force of technology has brought about business restructuring and a communication revolution. We wrapped up our meeting and were all exhausted although we had had a fruitful discussion. I was very hungry but I had lots of work to do before catching a flight in 2 hours time.”

12:00 Lunch “I opened the lunch box and called my wife to ask what she was doing now. The screen of our mobiles was divided into two because she was talking with one of her friends in another country. The three of us said "hello" and "how are you ?" to each other. I realized that time was running out fast, so I said goodbye and hung up. I packed up my briefcase immediately and left my office around 12:30.”

14:00 Catch Flight “ I was getting a little nervous but I was sure that I could still catch the flight. All I needed was a shortcut so I checked the "e-navigator" for the traffic and followed the guide. I had already arranged my flight on my mobile, and everything was done smoothly. Again my mobile was the main player for the flight arrangement including the check-in and customs. Everyone 'carries' "e-drivers license", "e-passport" or "e-social welfare number" as their ID. It was only a 2 hour flight and the plane was about to go across the border soon after take-off. I called my children at this time and asked them whether everything at school was all right. Talking with my family is my most enjoyable time especially when I am under heavy pressure on my job. They looked fine on the screen of my mobile.”

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination “The flight arrived on time as scheduled but I did not have time to take a rest before the business dinner. I was in a hurry to find the restaurant where I was meeting with my clients. I called them from my mobile and said that I would do my best to get there on time. They kindly answered "take your time, we will wait for you. Thank you for calling!". I took a taxi at the airport and decided to do some work in the taxi. I sent some "e-mail" to various clients and other people. For the last couple of years dramatic changes have occured in technological industry and the digital economy was accelerated rapidly. Everyone has access to the sights and sounds of a mobile multimedia world. Everyone and anyone can afford to participate. We have the ability to communicate with the world from anywhere. Major telecoms and computer vendors aiming to dominate in this market are forming alliances. Computer manufacturers are also the producers of communication appliances. There are many varieties of these appliances sold at the cheap price.”

18:00 Business Dinner “I actually managed to be on time at the restaurant and we tried to finalize our contract. We enjoyed the business dinner since everything went as well as both sides expected. Usually, we conduct our business through "tele-conferencing" but this time we had decided to meet in person. However, I could not help thinking that we could have done this by using our electronic tools as usual. We have already established very reliable relationships. If we look at this meeting from our side it was expensive ! We paid for flight ticket and spent a lot of time. I agreed with our clients on the following procedures as a next step for the deals should be done at each office. Ultimately, we are living in the "e-world" now ! The world is becoming a common marketplace in which people desire the same product and lifestyles. By uniting the world market global standards of mobile phone ensured the compatibility between systems from different manufacturers and in different countries. Not only technological, economical, social and political aspects but also environmental aspect should not been ignored. This new economy created by "e-business" is generating enormous environmental benefits by reducing the amount of energy and materials consumed by businesses and increasing overall productivity. Paperless is of course highly acceptable and "e-business" is very eco-friendly.”

22:00 Local Entertainment “After dinner I went to a hotel where I was supposed to stay overnight. In a small single room I called my wife and children to say "good night". I was so tired and thinking hard about what happened today. It was definitely a long day ! I decided to go to bed early in order to save my own energy. I don't have to set the alarm because the morning call from my wife will wake me up.”

Scenario Two: “Noble Mobile” (globalization and resistance) January 31, 2005
7:30 Wake up “The alarm on my clock went off at 7:30 this morning and I leapt out of bed, tapping it gently off as I headed for the shower. Once dressed, I sat down to breakfast, opening my laptop to check the news and my stocks as I ate quickly. On the home page, there is a photo of a teenaged girl, and the article read that she had a brain tumor due to the radiation that is emitted from the mobile phone. The same story was also on the live news on CNN's website. I closed it in frustration as my company produced new generation mobile internet phones and recently we invested 10 billion dollars for its promotion world wide, giving it away almost for free. I started the car and the digital map on my dashboard showed me the best possible route to the office.”

9:00: Arrive at Office “Outside the gates of the office, the security guard had a difficult time clearing away the protestors in front of the company headquarters carrying placards referring to the company as "the wireless killer machine".

10:00 Meeting “Just at 10:00, my mobile rang in my pocket to let me know that the marketing director was ready for our meeting. During the meeting, the marketing director briefed us on the current situation about the wide spread protest in the bloc of developing countries due to the dumping of mobile phones. They were being the greatest environmental threat, larger than even plastics. So I decided to go there, for a first hand eyewitness. I got my tickets booked through my laptop, which gave me hundreds of options for the trip. I chose one according to my preference, which was already entered into the computer. Compared to the booking opportunity on my new internet mobile prototype, my PC had unlimited information from various agents and my ticket was booked in moments.”

12:00 Lunch My lunch was waiting in my office when I got back with just in time to eat before returning to my car to head for the airport. Again, the traffic service guided me to the closest empty parking space for my flight departure. The automatic parking system recognised my credit card as I drove in and debited my account with the fees.”

14:00 Catch Flight “I checked in using the e-ticketing information at the automatic booth ñ the system identified me and then issued my boarding pass. I had to switch the mobile off as I boarded the plane because the system interfered with the aviation systems. This had recently lead to the worst crash in aviation history.”

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination “When I arrived at my destination, I switched the mobile on and realised that I had 30 missed calls. I tried to call the marketing manager through my mobile but I kept getting the message that his mobile is switched off. Then I realised that due to excessive ringing, many people are now opting to leave their phones turned off. I attempted to send a wireless email using my WAP phone, but soon found that the system was very complicated, the manual was back in the office, and I was in a rush to get to my meeting. Therefore, I sent him an SMS confirming my arrival. I turned to my laptop, browsed through the net and easily located the best and nearest place of hiring a car. I rented a car and proceeded to the business dinner.”

18:00 Business Dinner “The dinner went very well and we agreed that I would stay overnight instead of heading home immediately as planned. This would give us the opportunity to meet with the Environment Minister to discuss the unrest. First, I attempted to change my flight plans on the mobile internet, however, I struggled with the strange system, eventually giving up. M-commerce gave very little local information and took a long time to find what I needed. Therefore, I used my credit card in a pay phone to ring the airline and then asked a passer-by for a nearby hotel. I called home to explain that I would be a day late. However, my wife also had her mobile switched off. Back in the hotel an hour later, I used the simpler and cheaper option of contacting her though video conferencing on my laptop. At first she was disappointed in my changed itinerary, but I finally assuaged her through my facial expressions.”

22:00 Local Entertainment “After the video call, I found I was still wide-awake. I gave the mobile one last try - surely I could find some local information on nearby entertainment - it could not be that hard, could it? However, I just could not get the system to tell me anything! It was pouring with rain by this time so I just went and had a drink in the hotel bar before organising with reception to give me a wake up call in the morning. I dozed off to sleep while a DVD movie played on my laptop screen.”

Scenario Three: "Futile Mobile" (fragmentation and resistance) January 31, 2005
7:30 Wake Up “I didn't actually wake up until 7:50, and then just by chance. There was a power outage during the night, so when I glanced at the alarm clock it flashed 12:00. Fortunately I was only 20 minutes late and not more. One week ago I was selected by France Telecom to receive a free Nokia internet mobile phone, along with wireless internet service for one year, as part of a promotion designed to encourage mobile internet phone use in Europe. I heard that one of the features was a wake up alarm, however I have no idea how it works. The phone is somewhat complicated and not many of my friends or colleagues have a mobile internet phone. I need to look into that over the weekend. Normally I would check my stock quotes in the paper and listen to the news on television during breakfast, but I now had no time for either. I rushed into the shower, dressed quickly, and raced out the door. My schedule was such that I had to drive into work today. As I rolled onto the A223 there was a delay from the moment I entered the on ramp. I had come too far for an alternate route and after 30 minutes of traffic jams, found that an accident had occurred. I had only traveled five kilometers and still had 30 to go. If only I had known!”

9:00 Arrival at Office “I finally located a parking spot at the far end of the lot. Due to the traffic and the alarm clock, I was 30 minutes late to work this morning - not a good start on an extremely busy day in which I was due out of town. I entered the building, flashed my ID card to security and took the elevator up to 15. There was no coffee left in the machine at this hour, but who has time for coffee with only half an hour until a meeting I planned on preparing for at 9:00? No time to spare.”

10:00 Meeting at Office “At 9:55 an important client called and I soon became engrossed in conversation. At 10:10 my secretary buzzed me that the marketing director was wondering where I was. I hung up with the client and scurried off to my meeting. The meeting was only scheduled until 11:00, however, several new items were added to the agenda. My stomach started grumbling at noon. Realising we were soon to be done, I made the excuse that I had to use the restroom and left the conference room in order to find some lunch - if I ordered now, it would be here by the time the meeting finished and I would have time to eat before leaving for the airport. However, now that I was outside the conference room, I realised I could not walk to my office to use the phone, as there was a window overlooking the corridor from the conference rooms and the restrooms were in the opposite direction. My mobile phone! I thought I would use my phone to place the order from outside the conference room, but as soon as I reached into my pocket, grabbed the device, and started to dial the number, I found that I did not have any reception in the inner corridor of the building. I guess I was not going to have any lunch today.”

12:00 Lunch “Rather than worry further about eating, I decided to call the airline to confirm my departure time. Twenty minutes after being on hold and fighting my way through the elaborate menu of choices, I finally got through to an airline operator. As my flight was on time, I was now rushing out of the office. On the way to the airport, I remembered having heard a news report a month ago which stated that New Zealand businessmen were using their mobile phones to access information from the Internet, specifically with respect to travel and airlines. What a great service that is, however, in Europe this technology is not widely accepted and used so far. If it were, it certainly would have made my life easier today, as I am now under great stress attempting to catch my flight.”

14:00 Catch Flight “As I arrived at the terminal, there was a huge queue of travellers waiting to check in. Fortunately, it was announced that the flight was now delayed due to de-icing of the plane. If it weren't for the new delay, I would have certainly missed the flight. I took this brief moment to call my stockbroker, as there was a trade I wanted to make after hearing a news report in the car on the way to the airport. I went to the stock quote option on my internet mobile and thought, "What a great gadget this is - I never would have been able to place this trade otherwise." No sooner did I think this, but I soon found that the my phone's network would not support this transaction. No stock trading today afterall. "This phone is more frustration than help," I now contemplated. “

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination “We arrive on time due to a strong tail wind. I found my way through customs quite easily, as I am accustomed to the routine with the passport and papers and keep them handy in my breast pocket. I next reached the car rental counter. I was issued keys for the car and asked the attendant to map out directions to my destination. I get off to a good start, but soon become confused, as I am in a new area. I consult the map, but almost get into an accident when I take my eyes off the road. I decided to pull over for a moment. I asked a passer-by for directions and carried on to the restaurant where I was meeting my clients.”

18:00 Business Dinner ”The dinner went very well and we agreed that I would stay overnight instead of heading home immediately as planned. This would give us the opportunity to get the contract signed and completed the following day. I was feeling good as we wrapped up for the evening and reached for my mobile phone to call the airline and reschedule my travel plans. As I switched on the power, the screen flashed in big block letters: "NO SERVICE." "Why doesn't the phone work outside of my countryÖIím only two hours away?" I thought. I excused myself from the table and went to find a pay phone. Unfortunately, the pay phones in this country take only phone cards and not change. I had to go out to the store across the street, buy a phone card, return to the restaurant, place the call, and finally return to the dinner 25 minutes later. My wife! I returned to the public phone, dialled home, and was connected to my daughter. My wife came on a moment later, just as the phone card expired. At least my daughter will be able to tell my wife that I will not be home this evening. Through the window, I spotted a flower shop across the street, braved the snow once again, and sent flowers home. I returned to the table for the second time, having been gone at this point for one hour. Fortunately, we were done for the night and so we arranged to meet in the morning. I then set out for the car. The waiter had drawn me a map of how to get to the hotel I spotted on the way to the restaurant and I drove there - only had to stop once to ask for directions from a passer-by.”

22:00 Local Entertainment. ”Once I had checked in at the hotel, I found I was still wide-awake. I thought I would attempt to find some local entertainment information. I consulted the phone book and found a movie theatre in the neighbourhood. I wanted to call the theatre to learn the schedule, but the hotel phone system was not working due to the snow storm - the phone lines were down outside the hotel. Of course the mobile phone isn't working here - maybe I should simply give the phone back to France Telecom. It hasn't helped me at all today - the day I have needed it most thus far. I decided to call it a night and went to the hotel desk to request a knock on the door in the event that the phones are still not working in the morning for a wake-up. I'm certainly not relying on the digital alarm clock in the hotel room.”

Scenario Four: “Local Mobile”. (acceptance and fragmentation)
7:30 Wake Up “The alarm on my mobile went off at 7:30 this morning and I leapt out of bed, tapping it gently off as I headed for the shower. Once dressed, I sat down to breakfast, rolling out the bigger screen on the mobile to check the news and my stocks as I ate quickly. I also took the opportunity to do a quick scan of the local traffic conditions as I had to drive into work today ñ the traffic service on the mobile recommended a different route than normal as there had been a major accident on the A223. As I drove into work I kept the big screen exposed and followed the directions from the service.”

9:00 Arrive at Office “The mobile beeped gently once as it identified me for the automatic security in the parking building and the screen flashed up with the closest empty parking space. I checked my schedule on the smaller screen as I waited for the lift up to the 15th floor and my office. The coffee was piping hot as I grabbed a cup just outside the lift ñ my mobile had notified the coffee machine as we entered the building.”

10:00 Meeting “Just on 10:00 my mobile vibrated gently in my pocket to let me know that the marketing director was ready for our meeting. During the meeting I suddenly realised I had forgotten to organise some lunch so I used the small screen to discreetly place my order. I also checked that my flights were all on schedule for the afternoon ñ no problems there. This was all so simple as my mobile system knew all my preferences and anticipated what I would be wanting.”

12:00 Lunch “My lunch was waiting in my office when I got back with just time to eat before returning to my car to head for the airport. Once again, the traffic service guided me and directed me to the closest empty parking for my flight departure. The automatic parking system recognised my mobile as I drove in and debited my account with the fees.”

14:00 Catch Flight “I checked in using the e-ticketing information on my mobile at the automatic booth ñ the system also identified me so it issued my boarding pass. Unfortunately, I had to switch the mobile off as I boarded the plane; the system was not supported once I was out of the country.”

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination “When I arrived at my destination I had to dig around in my briefcase to find my physical passport. I knew it was there somewhere but it had been a while since I had needed it. At the rental car counter I absentmindedly held out my mobile but the man behind the counter shook his head, their system would not recognise it. So that meant another search for a credit card and my driverís licence! The rental car company provided a local mobile with the car and I fiddled with it as I waited for the paperwork to be completed. I tried to find the traffic information but couldnít get the system to recognise any of my commands. The rental car assistant pointed out that I needed to hold the control key down to get into the menu I needed. I shook my head in frustration, why are all these systems so different? As I climbed into the car I managed to push the wrong button on the mobile and cancelled all the directions I needed and there was no way I could get back into it again. Eventually I stopped and asked someone for directions to the restaurant where I was meeting my clients.”

18:00 Business Dinner “The dinner went very well and we agreed that I would stay overnight instead of heading home immediately as planned. This would give us the opportunity to get the contract signed and completed the following day. I was feeling good as we wrapped up for the evening and I reached for my mobile to reorganise my travel. Unfortunately that feeling didnít last long as I struggled with the strange system, eventually giving up and using my credit card in a pay phone to ring the hotel recommended by the waiter. It took several minutes to change my flights on the phone as well ñ I had got so used to my mobile taking care of identification and other such details. Then I had to call home to explain that I would be a day later than planned. My wife wasnít too happy about the change in plans so I thought I would send her some flowers ñ an easy task on my mobile at home, but not here! The waiter drew me a map of how to get to the hotel and I drove there ñ only had to stop once to ask for directions from a passer-by.”

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Beyond The Internet. Author: Charles W. Schmidt, freelance science writer living in Portland, Maine.
Special thanks goes to Neil Gershenfeld of the MIT Media Laboratory for providing invaluable background and insight in technology futures. Thanks also goes to Charlie Plot (California Institute of Technology), David Tennenhouse ( Intel Corporation), John Seely Brown (Xerox Corporation), Kris Pister (University of California, Berkeley), Mark Grey and Jim Closs (NASA), John Ledyard (California Institute of Technology), and Cherry Murray (Bell Laboratories/Lucent Technologies).

Mr. Schmidt explores the second wave of connectivity, where "intelligence" is embedded in the objects and materials of our daily lives, creating huge and ubiquitous networks. Scientific understanding will continue to grow. Environmental gains are possible.

Scenario One: Beyond the Internet. (Phrased within the context of a scenario.) “In 2002, we are surrounded by computers. Computers in 2010 disappear altogether. According to the pioneers of information technology (IT) that's exactly what happened. Not that this world is a world of written ledgers and the abacus -- far from it. What it means is by 2010 computers are literally absorbed by their surroundings and embedded in walls, carpets, toasters, neckties, and even our own bodies. As computing dissolves into the environment it becomes as pervasive as the electricity flowing through society. Some scientists suggested the earth will be wrapped in a "digital skin," transmitting signals over the Internet almost as a living creature relays impulses through its nervous system. Millions of sensors probe and monitor highways, cities, factories, forests, oceans, and the atmosphere. Some are linked to orbiting satellites -- extending the reach of this digital infrastructure into outer space. Scientists refer to this scenario as ubiquitous or pervasive computing. Either way, the bottom line is the same: an unprecedented level of connectivity. The international consulting firm Ernst & Young predicted that by 2010 there will be nearly 10,000 telemetric devices (meaning devices that transmit or receive data) for every person on earth. Because in 2010, managing connectivity on a scale like that is too difficult for humans to do on their own, network management will be partially delegated to software programs called agents that learn about their users and act autonomously on their behalf. The way humans interact with computers changes profoundly. Instead of typing commands into a passive box, humans use speech and physical gestures to communicate with computers much as they do with anyone else. Computer networks are adaptive, intelligent, and self-organizing.”

Scenario Two: The Networked Physical World. (Phrased within the context of a scenario.) “Down in the trenches of MIT's famous Media Laboratory, Associate Professor Neil Gershenfeld reflects on the bits and the atoms. "The bits are the good stuff," he muses, referring to these units of digital information. "They consume no resources, they travel at the speed of light, we can copy them, they can disappear, we can send them around the globe and construct billion dollar companies." Contrasting them with physical objects, he says, "The atoms are the bad stuff. They consume resources, you have to throw them away, they're old-fashioned." In 2010, a continuing challenge for the 21st Century is to find ways to "bring the bits into the physical world." In this world, computers are brought into the stuff of everyday life by embedding them into ordinary objects and machines. Inexpensive servers bring Internet access to household appliances and office equipment. People take for granted that microwave ovens download cooking instructions from the Web or that alarm clocks reset themselves after a power outage. The cheapest gateways to the Internet comprises sensors and radiofrequency (RF) tags linked to networked microprocessors. An RF tag is actually a silicon chip that emits an electronic signal in the presence of the energy field created by a device called a reader. Tags already have some familiar uses in 2002 -- for instance driving through an automatic toll booth causes an RF tag to boot up and identify your car. In 2010, tags and readers are linked to the Internet, opening up new worlds of opportunities. “Smart" fridges monitor tagged products, learn food preferences and shopping schedule, and eventually buy all a household’s groceries. Washing machines monitor colors -- toss a tagged red sock into a pile of white laundry, and the machine will shut down. Tagged pill bottles in a medicine cabinet allow doctors to monitor patient compliance with prescriptions, remotely. Companies will be able to determine the whereabouts of all their products, all the time. This capability provides some important environmental benefits: real-time product tracking enables manufacturers to save millions in cash and energy resources by shifting to a process that matches production to consumption, item for item. Tagged products become self-managing; able to convey their identity and composition to networked trash containers and recycling centers.”

Scenario Three: Here Come the Jetsons. (Phrased within the context of a scenario.) “In 2010, scientists devised ways to ship bits rather than atoms to manufacture products remotely. Printers called "personal fabricators" are used to make things like toy jeeps and wine glasses in the household. In 2002, scientists at the Media Lab were already involved in printing semiconductors, transistors, and other electronic devices as if they were made out of paper. Simple three-dimensional objects have already been printed as well, with more complicated structures just around the corner. In 2002 – 2010, scientists contemplat the environmental upsides and downsides of personal fabrication. On the one hand, the technology could save energy by reducing energy expenditures involved in transporting a product to its point of use. On the other, three-dimensional printing could inundate society with objects, in the same way the "paperless office" is in reality saturated with more paper than ever. Scientists eventually find a way to make the personal fabricator environmentally feasible through equipping it with a "defabricator" that breaks objects down to their constituent materials.”

Scenario Four: The Future of Remote Sensing. (Phrased within the context of a scenario.) “In 2010, if one looks into the digital world, the digital world is looking right back at you. Advances in remote sensing give computer networks the eyes and ears they need to observe their physical surroundings. Sensors detect physical changes in pressure, temperature, light, sound, or chemical concentrations and then send a signal to a computer that does something in response. Billions of these devices form rich sensory networks linked to digital backbones that put the environment itself online. Dense arrays of networked sensors extract as much "information per unit volume," about the environment as possible. In the area of smart dust, much of the research driving small, inexpensive sensors is found in the area of MEMS, short for microelectromechanical systems. Scientists working with MEMS create tiny electronic features from silicon, some of them smaller than a red blood cell. MEMS extends to sensor design as well. “Smart dust" is designed to be so small it literally floats in the air. These minute devices are self-powered and contain tiny on-board sensors and a computer on a scale of just five square millimeters -- roughly the size of an aspirin tablet. In 2001 it becomes possible to reduce their size to a single millimeter and to airborne dust-like dimensions by 2005. The idea is to use them by the thousands as interconnected networks that communicate with each other. Smart dust "motes" sprinkled out of airplanes monitoring the atmosphere or hovering in the dark recesses of factory stacks monitoring pollution, or used in farms to measure soil chemistry and pesticide levels. In 2002, it is possible to pack the motes with the computing power of the first Intel computer chip -- just 200 microns long (one micron = one millionth of a meter) -- for about 10 cents. In 2010, continuing advances in MEMS push the price down below a penny.”

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Blueprint to the Digital Economy: Creating Wealth in the Era of E-Business. Author: Don Tapscott, Alex Lowry, and David Ticoll 1998 McGraw-Hill.

This book took the combined labors of three editors and various expert authors drawn from academia, research and corporate leadership. The 20 essays focus on industrial transformation, new rules for competing in the e-age, the computer- based network model and changes in government structure and policy in a networked world . Major trends in digital computing: 1) more changes coming as computers combine with information technology; the “N-Gen” – those who ranged from two to 22 years old in 1999 will play an increasingly critical role in e-commerce; 2) new rules for competition are emerging – increasingly, companies are becoming learning rather than knowing organizations; more focus on corporate creation of new markets and industries instead of simply improving operations; 3) industries are transforming, such as, for example Boeing moving beyond the aircraft industry to the software industry and plblishing is increasingly moving operations into online servers; 4) business is increasingly depending upon information technology; inter-networks with customers, suppliers, distributers, channel partners and workers in remote areas is growing; 5) e-business is transforming the relationship between business and government—increasingly, transactions occur in intangible cyberspace rather than in geographic or national space.

Scenario of the E-Business Community (EBC): In 2010, networks and e-networks define the rules of competition. New “value propositions” are drawn and on a continual basis as networks inter-connect small and large players. Information becomes more transparent; considered by 2010 a civil virtue, but the transparency of information foils attempts at traditional competitive intelligence (CI) to discern a competetor’s next conceptual “value proposition” or approaches to the market. In this world, new “value propostions” quickly transpose concept-to- word-of-mouth and finally, to implementation at an accellerated rate. Traditional CI cannot keep up the knowledge of the “corporate “Jonses” within an industry. The world of E-business has become similar to the wonder of moth-like activity, where CEOs are no longer able to conduct traditional environmental scanning techniques to “see” what their competitors are doing; rather, like moths, they can only “sense” competitors’s next moves, not knowing fully if the current competitor is really an ally or foe? In the world of the EBC, there is endless restructuring – and in some cases, “creative destruction”-to-consruction- re-construction of industries. Mass-customization is no longer as effective a decade before. Firms must also provide value-added services on a much more individualized basis, more rapidly. Early market entry is fragile: the key to survival is good management in the near-term, and if managed correctly, the medium term. If an e-business is really lucky, it will survive in the long term. Supply chains break down rapidly so that the birdsong of “disintermediation” or “re-intermediation” continues to empower the end-user and consumer. The new digital world creates an addendum to a plethora of new types of value propositions – more specialized units become better at responding to specific customer needs (in 2002, some called it “disaggregation and specialization”). EBC unfolds to birth a typology of four cluster-types of e-business by 2010 (today, we are seeing these emerge): open markets, aggregation markets, value chains, and alliances. In this uncertain world, a new company survives because long-range planning is drawn and re-drawn in excruciating detail even before the first page of a business plan “hits the draftboard”. Companies typically plan scenarios on matrices of possibilities and factors so as to envision alternative futures and prepare a multiplicity of planning so that successful trajectories within the changing business environment can be more readily perceived. This is the world of “organizational plasticity” where survival means innovation, mastering relationships, and business design. It is a world of knowledge in which knowledge mediates the law of increasing rather than diminishing returns. The future of a company begins with self-identity. Unlike a human being growing into a self-identy by puberty, a company by 2010 will have to define exactly what that identiy is, why, and what it will become. In addition, companies will have to plan exit strategies before the first day the doors open for businesss. The old “multi-divisional firm (M-Form organization) gives way to the E-form (ecosystem) form – totally focused on value proposition, markets, and potential markets within ecosystems. The term, “discontinuous change” in 2002, was at that time, only familiar in MBA programs. By 2010, it becomes the new catch-phrase at the office water cooler. Instead of discussing matters of gossip, employees discuss matters of strategy and “discontiuous change” on a daily basis’; and this also includes the janitor.

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The Future of Libraries to 2020. Digital Thinking Network (DTN); headed by Daniel Erasmus and Niall Murphy.
The DTN is dedicated to the networking of individuals and organizations considering the depth and magnitude of the changes that Information Technology brings to the world.

The story: Here she was, walking down the street: blonde and beautiful. And, since they had met last Saturday on the beach, Fronso also knew that she was quite bright. He had taken a day off from his MBA studies in Rotterdam, occupied a small square on a crowded beach outside The Hague, and become involved in a conversation with his new “neighbors” – a Dutch guy and this blond beauty. Soon the conversation focused on one of the woman’s prime interests: the cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sandy dunes. The Dutch guy could keep up in the conversation, but Fronso hastily excused himself, so as not to show his ignorance. What a disaster! He knew he would only get one more chance to talk to her, but this time he had to be prepared- no matter what it took. Cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sand dunes! How in the world could he develop insights in such a subject within a reasonable time? While walking back to his room, Fronso thought about his options…

Scenario One: Revenues From Bricks and Clicks. Key Issues: people pay membership fee to get free access to copyrighted material; highly trained employees help members to locate and retrieve the desired content; direct physical interaction among users and between users and employees is important; publishers allow the use of their copyrighted material in these facilities. “The internet research didn’t yield much. Yes, he used the most advanced search engines, and even sent out search agents to look for the desired content. No results, except the “South-Holland Rose Club” with a home-page in Dutch. Amazon.com didn’t yield any hits, and neither did the online search of the US or the Dutch National Library. Seven years ago the US National Library completed digitizing all its books and provided full online access. The National Libraries of most European Countries announced unlimited online access in the following two years. In the same year (2015) the last Dutch public library in downtown Amersfoort was closed. If the Mayor’s wife hadn’t worked there it would have been closed years sooner. The public libraries with short opening hours and old employees did not serve the needs of a quickly changing world anymore. Research was undertaken faster online from home, all magazines had their online-versions and many of them were even distributed online. People would print individual pages on high-quality double-page printers or view them on portable e-screens. Furthermore, copyrighted material could not be printed but viewed for five days before it deleted itself.

In general, however, copyrights were not an issue anymore. Yes, the best-selling authors were still publishing hard-copy books with copyrights, though because of their sheer quantities, production of these books was cheap. This served the mass market. At the low volume end of the market, a high-end publishing had emerged with exclusive limited-edition books that were considered art-pieces for their beauty and craftsmanship. Most other authors published directly online and distributed their content freely or for a marginal download fee. In the past their salaries had been so meager that they couldn’t even pay their rent, and a book’s revenue was eaten up by the high charges for low-volume publishing and the overheads of the publishing houses. Now many authors were sponsored directly by companies or wealthy individuals, either for cultural reasons or to be associated with their success. The same picture had transpired in the academic publishing scene: few bestsellers were published as hardcopies, the rest was published online and for free or a marginal fee. Small editions had made them prohibitively expensive and by the time a book was published, its content was often outdated. Why bother with a hard-copy publication? The fame from on-line publishing made many publications more beneficial, especially for the high feedback they received and which could be worked into the next edition.

Back to the Cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sand dunes. Nothing in the English-speaking world. The Dutch National Library didn’t contain anything, and besides, Fronso didn’t speak Dutch. That meant there was only one more place he could turn to: Ogogo’s. This international chain had opened its first Dutch location in Amsterdam three years ago and due to its huge success shortly thereafter in Rotterdam. Membership at Ogogo’s had quite a price, but people were happy to pay it. Ogogo’s were places to meet in a quiet atmosphere with other members, enjoy the exclusive book collection in comfortable chaise lounges or discuss the latest publications. And of course: they were places to research. Over the years the Internet had automated everything that could be automated. By doing so the profession of the librarian who catalogued books and searched databases had become obsolete.

At the same time the profession of the “Accessors” arose: highly trained and highly paid people who located content where search-engines failed. They knew which databases existed, how to program search agents, or how to find documents in foreign languages and translate them. Ogogo’s in Rotterdam employed three Accessors per shift, who helped people with their research. It is not surprising that more than half of Ogogo’s revenue came from corporations who paid a membership both as an added benefit for their employees, as well as to give them access to Ogogo’s knowledge network (databases & Accessors). In addition members could log on from the Internet to Ogogo’s global proprietary knowledge network, which offered unlimited access to proprietary content providers. The typical Ogogo’s member had money, was well educated, but had no time to waste.

Ogogo’s parent company had developed an additional revenue stream by establishing OrgLib, which was running the libraries of universities. Just as caterers ran a university’s canteen, libraries were run by OrgLib or its competitors. But these libraries were usually understaffed and often limited to the academic universe. Fronso didn’t have time to stand in line, so he signed up for a one-day trial membership at Ogogo’s in downtown Rotterdam. Five minutes after he approached an Accessor with his question the man had located a Dutch book, which contained a chapter on the issue. Within seconds the translation engine transferred it into English. While Fronso waited eagerly for the printout the Accessor stopped a young for woman who walked by. “Hey aren’t you studying sociology? This young man has a very particular interest…” The next thing Fronso knew was that he was sitting with her and a cup of tea as she discussed the habits of the population in the southern Netherlands. Half an hour later he had forgotten about Cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sand dunes and his blond passion. He was going out for dinner with the sociologist (and became an Ogogo’s member).”

Scenario Two: Money In the Cyber World – Profitable OnLine Libraries Key issues: technologies track usage of copyright material; no physical libraries anymore; everything that can be, has been automated; librarians replaced by intelligent agents/discussion forums; the majority of authors continue to publish for direct remuneration. “His first thought was: where could I find a book on such a specific subject? Local libraries had closed their doors about 5 years ago, because content was abundant, they were not agile enough to keep the pace with the increasing amount of available information, and they couldn’t handle the increased competition of professional online libraries. These libraries offered the latest content in a highly user friendly manner. Initially trying to build their own internal networks and to keep the control over the materials available, traditional libraries had undergone a phase of enormous transformations. These were due to the profusion of new possibilities of document-delivery, non-uniformity of interfaces, ever-changing search engines and the sheer range of technical skills required in the work place. Libraries and information service staff had encountered a lot of difficulties in keeping up with the pace of change. Not so online content providers, which provided (for a small monthly fee) highly efficient access to all kinds of content: books, magazines, music, videos, proprietary on-line databases, search agents. And as these services were available around the clock, people were happy to pay for them. The final push came when most governments stopped subsidizing existing libraries. Instead, Governments invested to make their national libraries available online. By now, only very old books could be found in traditional libraries, and regardless, these were already digitalized and also available on-line. Ironically, Fronso’s uncle was the last Executive Director of the Guttenberg Project. The beginning of Project Gutenberg was 50 years ago, when Michael Hart was given an operator's account containing $100,000,000 of computer time by the operators of the Xerox Sigma V mainframe at the Materials Research Lab at the University of Illinois. By that time more computer time was available than people able to use computers. He realized that the greatest value created by computers would not be computing, but would be the storage, retrieval, and searching of what was stored in the libraries. The Beginning of the Gutenberg Philosophy, the premise on which Michael Hart based Project Gutenberg was that anything that can be entered into a computer can be reproduced indefinitely. The concept of Replicator Technology was simple: once a book or any other item (including pictures, sounds, and even 3-D items can be stored in a computer), then any number of copies can and will be available. Everyone in the world, or even not in this world (given satellite transmission) can have a copy of a book that has been entered into a computer. The physical libraries now only preserve the history and thoughts of mankind throughout the centuries; one cannot borrow a book anymore. People still collect books, and the selection of books was easy through electronic online catalogues. On-line bookstores delivered books within one day, and all libraries on-line were also offering this service as an added value. Selected chapters could be read on screen, or on PDA, or one could order an e-book. Did Fronso ever hear somebody talking about his research topic? Not that he remembered! So the only solution left: the Internet! The school offered all students a subscription to the WWLibrary.com. That was very useful and also very common among business schools. Based on credits per individual, institutions could enrich their customers’ experience, or their employees’ performance by offering them this kind of support. Very handy, but his credit offered by the school is almost zero, and he hasn’t finalized the research for other class assignments. He could start searching for free information available, but whatever was for free was not organized and the research was very difficult. Since technologies have been developed which allowed the authors to track and limit usage to their copyrighted material, everything was made available on-line, although everybody had to pay for it. Low costs, high speed and availability of electronic publishing technologies were the factors that encouraged authors to publish directly on-line, and, as such, digital libraries were created automatically. Many authors, although not the majority, continued to publish for direct remuneration. Technology allowed them to choose the web-libraries they wanted to be present in, and also to get the money transferred directly to their accounts. Payments were made on-line safely, and people had become used to this method. Everything that could be automated has been automated. Schools, businesses, social and educational communities, were paying subscription and usage rights for different digital libraries. There was a burst in the development of digital libraries when software agents were perfected, representing a piece of software having both the ability to perform a search and to exercise preferences over how this search is performed. Thus, agents now have the ability to reason about how they use their resources. In other words, an agent doesn’t have to fulfill every request for service, only those consistent with its preferences. A traditional computer program did not have this reasoning ability. Moreover, since the agents were autonomous, they can and must negotiate with other agents to gain access to other resources or capabilities. The process of negotiation often consists of a "conversation sequence", where multiple messages are exchanged according to some prescribed protocol, which itself can be negotiated. Therefore intelligent agents, in some cases discussion forums, and online book communities, which ensure access and awareness, have replaced librarians. “Programming of Intelligent Agents” was Fronso’s favorite topic in the university. He knew how easy his life would be if he just had some more creditsbut he couldn’t wait until the credits for the next month were charged to his account. He entered Concordia, the Internet Café next door, and while waiting for his hot chocolate, typed in: “Desperate help needed: Cultural habits of Dutch Rose-Gardening in Sand Dunes - Anybody there?….” Luckily, somebody replied quickly… Danae. The conversation continued over the course of four more hot chocolates. After three hours of discussions Fronso discovered that Danae was living in Amsterdam, and they decided to continue the conversation over dinner. Meeting point: DTN Building. Recognition sign: Danae’s red cap. Time: one hour later. Fronso arrives, and, surprise! There was only one person wearing a red cap in front of the DTN building, and the cap was covering beautiful, long, brown hair that flowed in the evening’s wind…”

Scenario Three: Downloads. Key Issues: physical location fills an important function for meeting, socialising, discussing; physical books are still important; new search engines; universal access; functional fragmentation. “His first thought was to go online to search and download a book from Boogle, the worldwide library he had used few years ago during his undergraduate studies. But the Boogle website displayed a message that the company was under investigation by the European Community’s Justice Minister. Fronso remembered the story he had read in the Financial Times a few weeks agoexplaing the turbulent history of e-libraries around the globe. In 2004 a consortium of private venture capitalists had launched the first e-library which had allowed the downloading of entire books. The concept was based on enabling the download of thousands of old books for free and the download of new books for a small fee. Within a couple of months the idea became a global success and other private and public libraries went on-line. Search engines and translation tools were highly developed and the daily number of downloads surpassed 1 million. But after the initial success, the magic formula started to falter. Criminal elements had launched viruses that changed not only the content of books but also cracked the code that guaranteed the payment of a single copy of recently launched books. Suddenly thousands of authors demanded the exclusion of their publication from e-libraries. E-libraries tried to resist but after a group of novel authors went to court demanding millions in non-paid copyrights all e-libraries were immediately closed until a legal agreement could be reached. Fronso’s second option waited at the square in front of his building, a medium-sized library that he had used when he had arrived in town and wanted to learn Dutch. When he entered the library he saw dozens of people drinking coffee and discussing stories in cafeterias inside the library. There were three different cafeterias (and two under construction): one with Italian style coffee, another with Indonesian desserts and a third with Diet juices. Ten years ago, after years of declining public interest, libraries started to incorporate small shops and cafes to provide a enjoyable atmosphere for social contacts. Studies had predicted that with this “social entertainment atmosphere” the frequentation of libraries could be increased by 400%, compared with traditional ones. Fronso also remembered the first time he visited that place. It was his second month in Rotterdam and he had decided to try to read a book in Dutch. Looking for the section of books for kids, he had asked a nice old woman who was there with her 9-year-old grandson for some help. As all Dutch, she spoke some English and recommended him a 45-page book: “New Adventures of Peter Pan”, which she said she had already read to her two sons and five grandchildren. He had also used one of the recent developments of Dutch libraries: interest related groups that met weekly in the library to chat about specific issues, and get to know people with same interests. He had Italian friends who used to frequent one of these groups in Venice and he could increasngly see how people were falling in love through this medium and getting married. This time Fronso’s task was more complicated. He really needed to find a good book or article or video about Dutch gardening in dunes because his “pretend-to-be-girlfriend” had said that she loved the subject. From the school he tried to find the book on the Internet. He found the book, but just for sale, and because his objective with the girl had an horizon of no more than 6 weeks (his average time with each girlfriend!) he did not want to invest to much money on it. Prices of book were rising, not only due to the expenses of producing small runs of exclusive editions but also because the cost of paper was increasing due to environmental concerns in developing countries. At the entrance of the library sat the Internet terminals. He stopped and typed “dunes+flowers+gardening”. The computer posed some questions to refine the search. Fronso answered speaking and the voice-recognition terminal had a 30 seconds chat with Fronso. Finally he asked for the option “books in this library”. Immediately the Internet terminal connected to the central database Dutch Library System, where the government already spent millions to catalog all books in the Netherlands in just one database. From this, it found not only books in this library, but also presented links to libraries in Rotterdam that had the book.

As there were five different recommendations from the software, he printed the recommendation and went for help with the librarian. The librarian was a nice Dutch-Spanish girl who had just finished her studies in Latin Literature. She was working part-time in the library and part time cataloguing Latin books in the search engine of the Dutch Library System. They got into a conversation because she mentioned that her brother loved gardening and as a tech-nerd he bought a ScreenBook and paid for a subscription of all flower/gardening books available online. Every week he used to downloaded one or two books and articles in his ScreenBook. When he offered it to his sister, she did not like it, because after fifteen minutes her eyes started to be irritated and she realized that nothing could match a traditional print paper version. She had also heard that last week the company web site was shut down because of rumors concerning legal problems. After a 30-minute conversation with the young librarian Fronso totally forgot about flowers, gardening, and dunes. He was going out for dinner with the librarian….”

Scenario Four: Cyberization of the Traditional Model. Key Issues: no physical libraries – only online databases; everyone has free access to internet; copyrighted information universally available on-line; search and translation technologies plus flexible software architectures people can download, but not print or copy. “Twenty years ago, in 2001, he could have asked that nice old man who used to work as a librarian, and knew every book on the shelves of the library at the corner of his street. Today, the library is no more. All his experience has been translated into links to other information sources and all the books have been transformed in digital files. Libraries of the world have been converted into one huge database, and every citizen has free Internet access. True, the search technologies allowed everybody to have instant on-line access at books, publications and magazines, and they can translate anything that is available in cyberspace, but how long would it take for him to find this particular book? One option would be to try the Dutch National Library site, the only place where, for no cost, he could type the precious key words in the search engine, though would he find the right book in time? As Government services had not improved much in the last decades, and although all countries now subsidized their own National Online Library, it was for education purposes only. Sometimes you may find thousands of files with the same name, since flexible software had been created to support the organization of on-line content added daily by millions of people. Nowadays the majority of authors accept the concept of making their work available online without receiving direct payment. They believe that free viewing both increases awareness and encourages people to buy the book or copy the file and pay for it. Unlike their predecessors, they do not charge the copyright to the Government, and, in addition, it is an honor to have their names listed in the Library Catalogue. This system continues to work, since a person can download the file from the library but cannot print or copy it, as there is technology available that ensures protection against digital copying.

Another option for him would be to spend a fortune by asking the CIA (Certified Intelligent Agent) to track the right material in less than one second. To achieve a good result, Fronso must indicate to the CIA his area of interest. This is easy, since the Agent can find even the unexpressed user’s needs by association between the movement of the person’s eyes on the computer screen and the display of different content. Fronso is still thinking. After all, he is a poor student and cannot afford the expensive luxury of searching for knowledge. On the other hand, Fronso is under extreme time pressure, and Government services are not trustworthy enough. So, he decides to use the competent CIA instead of the free service, and starts browsing images of dunes covered with roses across the globe. After several seconds, Fronso stops and asks the CIA to do the search, hoping that his deposit payment will be enough for the agent to do the job. It does worry him though that these CIA’s can refuse a search request at any time they decide to do so, which seems to make the moniker of “intelligent” a little ironical! Fronso also hopes his deposit will give him adequate negotiation powers against other agents performing similar requests. “Search result found” is the message displayed on Fronso’s flexible screen. “Incredible”, thinks Fronso, “this agent is worth it, he found my book”! Fronso opens the message, and the book is there, called “Conspiracy of Perfumes in the Dutch Sands”, together with a message from the author. The author is also a Dutch women who says…she wants to meet him this evening? Fronso does not know what to do. He must read the book by tomorrow but also he could go to the meeting and ask this old lady a couple of questions about roses. Yes, let’s do that, it will help him prepare better for the conversation with the blonde and beautiful woman from the beach. After half an hour, Fronso arrives at the Concorde Club, and waits for the old lady to appear. He gets a message saying that his digital photo has already been delivered to the author, so she will easily recognize him. “Hello, nice to meet you!” Fronso turns his head and…the blonde and beautiful woman is here, she is the author of the book! After all, it seems that the CIA is indeed an intelligent agent….”

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New Drivers and Diverging Trends: Petroleum Products Markets to 2020. Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) – an independent firm providing insight into the energy future. Daniel Yergin, CERA Chairman, Joseph Stanslaw, CERA president and CEO. Multiclient study. For more information please contact Kathleen Doherty at +1-617-498-9194.

Long term challenges and significant events may lead to opportunities and threats in the power and gas industry to 2020. Key drivers include: environmental pressures, new end-user technologies, and changing demographics. These key drivers and forces were assessed through a series of workshops that led to a set of four scenarios to 2010. The next series of workshops over the next several months will extend the scenarios to 2020. Each scenario is based on geopolitical and industry building blocks and were described in terms of the international economy, environmental issues, an assessment of energy and oil demand, regional refined product supply and demand, crude oil supply, crude oil price outlook. A step-by-step entrain of events were described for each preliminary scenario to 2010. Future CERO workshops will flesh-out the scenarios to 2020 in full narrative form by mid-year 2002. This annotation will include the full scenarios in the State of the Future, 2003 edition. Scenario One: Kudzu Competition. 1995: Case-by-case wheeling; 1997: FCRC success rule; 2000: regional experiment; 2002 – 2010: Court order, corporate seperation, utility initiated write-offs, functioning pooled markets, investment minimized, focus on cheap upgrades, horozontal consolidation, second anti-trust breakup, rise of service firms. Scenario Two: Caught in the Muddle: 1995: Special Discounts, 1997: FCRC success rule, 2000: Regional experiment, 2002- 2010: crisis, sales of best assets, multiple write offs, barrier to exit, major consolidations, utility renaissance, IP PS on the bubble. Scenario Three: Virtual Competition: 1995: Wholesale competition, 1997: slow depreciation, 2000: erosion of customer base, 2002-2010: growing unit costs, public sentiment shifts, utility role preserved, declining price ceilings imposed, outsourcing, IP P renaissance. Scenario Four: Green Briar Path. 1995: wholesale competition 1997: rules delayed by CIS, 2000: Ozone Episodes, Fine particulate rules, 2002-2010: C02 concerns, presidential campaign issue, energy-environment set, tougher caps, energy issues, energy taxes, energy efficiency, coal retreat, investment boom, outsource bid tests.

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The Age of Miracle and Wonder. Author: Robert E Sawyer Part of the “Canadian Authors on 2000” series commissioned for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s Web site.

In 1961, Arthur C. Clarke, the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey, coined the term, “Clarke’s Law,” which says: “Any sufficiently advanced technololgy is indistiguishable from magic.” Clarke’s writing had reflected thousands of years into the future, yet, today’s technology and current breakthroughs in innovation and technology are increasing exponentially, almost “magically”. 90% of all scientific advances were made in the 20th century alone; 10% since the beginning of written history. Mr. Sawyer writes three scenarios that discuss the future of nanotechnology to the year 2020; the future of artificial intelligence to the year 3000; and lastly, a scenario about the future of articifical intelligence and food production.
Scenario of Nanotechnology: “The world of A.D. 2020 will be as incomprehensible to us as our world of today would have been to Queen Victoria during the last year of her reign. Consider nanotechnology, which is probably just around the corner. It will allow us to build things up atom by atom. You want a five-course dinner? A brick of platinum? A new kidney? Claudia Schiffer? No problem. We can build it for you. At the most advanced levels, nanotechnology will tear down and build up atoms from constituent parts: the differences between a pile of old newspapers and gold-and-diamond jewelry are only in how the protons, neutrons, and electrons are arranged. Sophisticated nanotech gives you the alchemist's dream of transmutation; it gives everyone the Midas touch — and it means there is no longer any such thing as a scarce resource. Food, fuel, drinking water, clean air — whatever you want, in whatever quantity you want it, all free for the asking. More: since nanotechnological machines will be able to make anything — including unlimited copies of themselves — the devices that perform this magic become essentially free of cost. Material needs disappear. But having all your material needs taken care of does you no good if you're dead. No problem: if you manage to hold on until A.D. 2020 — another twenty years — it's likely that you will never die. We already know what causes cells to age and cease to function; reversing the process will be one of the countless benefits of the Human Genome Project, currently nearing completion. Almost everyone born on this planet after 1950 will live to see not just the twenty-first century, but the twenty-second, and perhaps the twenty-third as well. We also will be quite different from what we were; we will have entered the trans-human era.”

Scenario: Artificial Intelligence by the Year 3000: “Within a century, it will be possible to scan a human mind and reproduce it inside a machine. Regardless of whether our minds are just very sophisticated analog computers, or whether they have a quantum-mechanical element (as Roger Penrose proposes), we will nonetheless be able to duplicate them artificially. Already, at the close of the second millennium, a transhumanist movement has begun; Christopher Dewdney is the principal Canadian spokesperson for it. This movement holds that uploading our consciousness into machines is desirable, since that will free us from biological aging and death. On the other hand (a decidedly biological metaphor), there is more to being human than just the networks of synapses in our brains; clearly, much of what we are is tied in intimately with our bodies. We may find that uploaded humans are not happy — indeed, are incapable of happiness or any emotion. Still, by the year 3000, there will doubtless be millions of uploaded people, including perhaps versions of some who are alive today. Indeed, religions might evolve around worshiping thousand-year-old computer-based avatars; with the acquired wisdom of a Methuselah, these entities might provide profound insights. Just as laws today are moving toward recognizing a woman's right to control her body and any separate sentience that may be contained within it, so too will the laws of the future recognize the right of humans to upload their consciousness and then dispose of the original biological versions of themselves; such eliminations will not be seen as suicides or murders, but rather as a natural, perfectly legal step, eliminating a no-longer-needed biological container and preserving the uniqueness of the individual. But there will also be other thinking machines, with a separate genesis: we will doubtless develop artificial intelligence within a century. A key question humanity will have to consider as it does so is what, if any, constraints will we build into AI? It may, in fact, be dangerous to build conscious machines that are more intelligent than we are; just as intelligence may be an emergent property of sufficiently complex systems, so too may ambition and desire be emergent properties of sufficiently intelligent systems. One possible scenario is that by the dawn of the fourth millennium, there will be no biological humans (or even any uploaded echoes of them) left; Homo sapiens may have been entirely supplanted by its AI creations.”
Artificial Intelligence and a Food Production Scenario: “A more appealing (at least to us) scenario would see humankind carefully crafting AIs (including many embodied as robots) who will take care of all the necessary work of food production, manufacturing, recycling, and so on, leaving us to pursue other things. Although we used to consider the mastery of chess to be the pinnacle of human intellectual achievement, we've had to concede that it is simply a mathematical problem, and even today's primitive computers can do it better than the most skilled human. But there are other realms — including art, philosophy, and scientific theorizing — that, because of their intuitive, nonlinear nature, we may always be better at than any machine. Our AI servants may free humanity at the dawn of the fourth millennium to concentrate on these areas.”

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Will That Be Cash or Cell Phone?; Wireless Payment Systems Might Mean Dialing In Your Own Wallet. Author: Katie Hafner (NYT) Late Edition – Final, Section G, Page 1, Column 1.

Cellular telephones are seen playing an increasingly important role in the future of e-commerce, or, m-commerce (mobile commerce). Users in the marketplace will typically be able to dial-in purchase information and confirmation. For example, a type of prototypical mobile payment system, PayPal.com, works like this: after opening an account on company's Web site, people can send money to one another via e-mail; once the money is sent, the amount is charged to credit card or bank account. Various scenarios like this, present the case for using process in making retail purchases. Richard Siber, analyst at Andersen Consulting, Boston, says while it will be years before m-commerce takes hold, but when it does, it will be bigger than e-commerce.

Scenario: M- Commerce a Cell Becomes a Powerful Tool. In 2010, M-commerce becomes widespread. It is bigger than e-commerce. In this world, it becomes common to stand in front of vending machines that respond to the dial of a phone number posted on the machine. The vending machine is equipped to transmit with the radio portion of a cell phone so that it can receive the call, or, with a transceiver that works with Bluetooth, a wireless connection that allows high-speed communication among devices within a short distance of one another. The machine then offers a menu. You choose a soda for $1.10 cents and enter a PIN – out comes the softdrink. Many other types of vending machines contain thumbprint recognition technology. In Finland, a complicated system for point-of-sale purchases with cell phones was being developed in 2002, and came to fruition a decade later. The financial services industry also increases ubiquitous systems in which cell phones connect with the various banking systems. Online financial services companies work with cell phones in the following way: “after opening an account on the company's Web site, people send money to one another via e-mail. The PayPal.com method calls for just an e-mail address (or eventually a phone number) to send, beam or dial-in a payment. Once the money is sent, the amount is charged to a credit card or bank account. The recipient retrieves the money by filling out a form attached to the payment, which in turn registers the recipient for the service. PayPal.com then credits a credit card, deposits money to a bank account or sends out a check. PayPal.com is especially popular for paying for merchandise on eBay and other online auction sites because it eliminates the need to send checks through the mail.” In 2002, the service had some 350,000 users and more than 10,000 new users sign up each day. This indicator is important, when considering the many uses and possibilities that cell phones will have in the future.

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The Future of Television – Internet Business, Organizations, and Networks. Digital Thinking Network (DTN), founded and funded by Niall Murphy and Daniel Erasmus.
The DTN website explores issues from the future of organization, the future of health, ideas, logistics, entertainment, etc.

The following four scenarios are based on multiple driving forces on a scenario matrix. For the future of television, the vertical axis shows the extremes of one device to many devices. The horozontal axis shows the extremes of few providers to many dividers.

Scenario One: Couch Potato (one device and few providers) “By 2020, newspaper headlines include: advertising driven the mass market; incremental innovation in TV sets; low rate of innovation, long product life cycle; Social/group activity; separation b/w TV and computer; pop-corn viewers. The winners in this world are big media conglomerates: i.e. CNN and vertical integration. The loosers are traditional TV manufacturers and small content providers. “Consumer in 2010: It is the end of a long working day, I'm laying on the couch, watching a TV show and it's time for a short break. Suddenly Cindy appears introducing the new make-up

collection of a famous brand ,you switch to another channel and here is Cindy one more time but now for a shampoo ad for the same brand. Mass advertisement is everywhere. I am a passive viewer just looking at my screen, having my bowl of pop-corn and thinking how the world behind the screen is just esthetically perfect.

TV manufacturer in 2010: TV is mainly present but it should follow the multiple international standards so to satisfy consumers worldwide. It should also increase efficient devices .TV is still a long product life cycle and manufacturer are taking advantages out of it.

Broadcaster in 2010: There is a big media conglomerates which determine the content of the TV, the consumer is just passive and is a follower.”

Scenario Two: Trapped in Paradise (many devices and few providers) “By 2020, newpaper headlines include: new product launched on the market: smell generator to enhance broadcast experience; Philips Electronics invests in hologram market; Cinema has hard time due to new in-house entertainment. The winners in this world are: big media conglomerates; software development companies; and display technology firms. The Loosers are: independent content providers; traditional TV manufacturers; movie theaters; the consumer

Consumer in 2010 It is Saturday 2 pm and dad decides to have some quality time with his children, after having worked the whole morning with his virtual company. Rather than going to the cinema, he switches on the house multi-mediasystem, and right in front of him he sees the 3D-hologram of Ted O'Gram, the famous showmaster of CMM, the multi-billion dollar media conglomerate. The children like this show, because they are able to answer online questions to the quizzes and, if they answer all the questions correctly, they will appear in the show for thousands of viewers. However, the show just finished and dad swaps by voice activation to another channel, also of CMM. This is a holiday magazine. Suddenly, a 3-D image of a tropical beach appears on the big screen on the wall and we hear the sound of the waves through the surround-sound system. Two palms are projected as holograms in the middle of the living room, to enhance the vacation experience. On a separate screen a computer image is projected with the prices and booking information on the holiday. A scrolling text appears on the big screen, which says that all hotels are equipped with CMM's entertainment.

TV manufacturer in 2010 TV manufacturers have had a difficult time to abandon the idea that the TV is a single device in the living room and compete now with a wide variety of new high tech companies in several nices of the display and entertainment market. To strengthen their position, traditional TV manufacturers formed alliances with the big media conglomerates in order to develop entertainment devices adapted to their needs. Rather than supplying TV screens, the traditional TV manufacturers are now in a wide variety of display technologies, such as projection screens, 3-D images and holograms. They have developed new standards of control and have invested a lot of money in software for control of devices and user-interfaces. The media conglomerates use the new technology to bombard the consumers with standard entertainment shows and lots of advertisement.

Broadcaster in 2010 The broadcasters have grown into multi-billion dollar conglomerates that have in house everything related to entertainment. The broadcasters have profitted from the availability of new technologies to enhance their shows, like big in-house screens, simultaneous projections, surround sound and video communication links. The broadcasters formed alliances with internet companies to have access to the web as well. The conglomerates try to attract as many consumers as possible, because they are paid from advertisements and on-line shopping.”

Scenario Three: Gadget (one device and many providers) “In this world, the concept of TV is unchanged. It is a stand-alone (unlinked), immobile, social gadget, used only to present audio-visual programming. It competes with other devices (internet, radio) to be the entertainment and information center of the home. Technical innovation has been incremental - there are more features, but there have been no great conceptual leaps. TV sets have advanced to the point where you can see several channels at the same time, perhaps by viewing from different angles (with audio distributed independently). Sources of information are extremely numerous - all connections into the home are exploited by various standards to reach the consumer, so you can get incoming signals through the cable, telephone, electricity, plumbing, and satellite providers. The competition is intense between info sources - most media advertising is used to direct the consumer toward a provider, where he can choose a subscription to accept any level of consumer advertising and content - based on price. Advertisers pay high fees, since they can reach highly targeted audiences. Headlines: AOL Buys Philips, making Time-Warner channels always appear first, whenever the set is turned on. You can reset this feature as easily as you used to program the VCR, by manipulating the small levers on the back underside of the TV set. However, VCR's are today very easy to program - you just talk to them; most popular TV software, third year in a row: Microsoft's Tuner Helper, to try to make the most of your 75000 possible channels; Merde Inc. IPOs on Wall Street, promising delivery of digital signal through septic lines. The winners are: TV manufacturers that can design (ex. flat panel, low energy, creative shapes, more potential locations), since tech know-how is widespread and well understood. Value-added comes from creativity and marketing; sources that can establish a strong brand name among middle-aged people, as the population is aging. They can then rely on subscriber revenue, rather than advertising; search engines, to make sense of the vast streams of information available; engineering firms that manufacture equipment to receive signals on; different standards. The loosers are: companies that spent a lot of money to acquire distribution capacity must spend still further amounts to attract viewers, who have unlimited choice; those who invested a lot in the combination technology of computer/TV, since people have decided that the computer is a separate device for information, not entertainment; the big media conglomerates, who finally gave up the battle to squash competition when the electric companies perfected their signal transmission technology.

Consumer: bombarded with adverts by sources of info: channels, distributors, and packagers; attracted by alternative sources of info, e.g. internet, WAP, and radio; family watches (different programs) together; all are familiar with using technology. The family gathers around the TV set in the den after dinner. Since the size of the family has gradually been growing smaller, it now includes only the parents and their single daughter. Dad chose to subscribe to the electric company's TV menu. Even though the total number of available channels does not match ABC's, there is a good variety of family programs. Moreover, it comes with a discount on the monthly electric bill, which has been growing ever more expensive. The last oil shock, in 2005, resulted in sustained higher prices. With all the other electronic equipment and the charger for the electric car, electricity is now the family's second-biggest monthly bill. The daughter is not too upset though, since she can tune into the latest sites on the internet from her room, and her friends don't watch much TV anyway. How can anyone watch the same program for 30 minutes?

TV Manufacturer: outsources all manufacturing; concentration on style, design, features, sorting capabilities, comfort, screen characteristics; interests are not in line with those of the broadcast industry. The manufacturer just got back from a trip to Jakarta, having taken a trip to try to spot the emerging trends in TV designs favored by the youth there. Indonesia has become one of the best places to prospect for new styles, as its popularity as a manufacturing site led nearly all the world's production to locate there in the early 2000's. The country's economic recovery has allowed the city culture to blossom, and the abundance of electronic parts has been used by artists to make up fanciful devices. The manufacturer is hoping to find a way to attract American kids, who have largely abandoned TV. He is looking for a complement to his TV lines for middle-aged Americans, which is a mature, commodity market. The only way to make money these days is to catch a fad, and profit for a short time before the style is copied. His last big product was the Tub-a -Telly, designed to run in the shower and catch the signals that came through the water lines. Sadly, the fad died when the free channels were swamped with advertising.

Broadcaster: has to spend heavily to advertise his channel, since it is very easy to send out a signal these days. The competition covers the spectrum from the traditional media conglomerates to the independents and individuals; with the improvements in digital technology, it is now possible for a relatively small operator to transmit nearly any program ever made, at any time of day or night; the best advantage is that you now have a very good idea of who watches your channel, and can target ads very specifically. Those who choose to buy subscription TV generally do not like to see many ads, but it is possible to include subtle ones. Advertisers pay top dollar; with advertisers desperate for eyeballs, they now have less room to complain about programming choices. Broadcasters have room to compete against the freewheeling content of the independents.

The broadcast executive has to get an early start this morning, because the auction of 2007's top rated show will be held on the net at 6 AM in Hawaii, where he lives. So much of his job can be done digitally now; there was just no reason to stay in NY or LA. He can set up all the required programming from home, just call up the digital files onto his transmitter. The advances in encryption have eliminated the piracy problems from the Chinese broadcasters - lucky for him, since it is so hard to determine the location of a broadcast source today. Even with the political freedoms that swept China when the information barriers become completely useless, it is still hard to get access to the court system there, and China is still inward-looking. The executive hopes that his deal with the Chinese government to provide premium subscription service to the big cities will finally close - just think, another 2 billion eyeballs.”

Scenario Four: Magic Kingdom. Key Elements: The end of TV as we know it. No longer in the tube, TV has disappeared in the sea of appliances; everything revolves around the individual/consumer who gets what he wants on whatever devices he wants; all transactions are electronic and bot controlled (VISA is the biggest financial institution on the planet) : everything is digital including houses, clothing, cars, road signs…You can connect everything with everything; content is king - it is also everywhere… they are over a million channels from which to chose from if you include the Web and cable; nation-states exist more and more formally. Networks of all kind strive. And , for those who dream the future, they see the birth of Corporate-Nations, each with their own compound, population, architecture, benefits, style and so forth; hackers have migrated into the "Walled City". No one knows where they are; people still eat pizza.

Scenario: “At 7:30 p.m. Bill leaves his office and heads home. Although his car is wired to the web and could find the best way to get home according to the current traffic situation, Bill has turned the device off. As a matter of fact, he has also turned the sensory-videos of his auto-run off. Tonight, he just wants to drive home and hear classical music. He tells his car what he wants to listen to (a Bach Fugue) and seconds afterwards it downloads a tune onto the hard drive of his top-of-the-line surround sound system. Bill works for Pegasus, an independent interactive content production house based in San Martha California. He is 32 and does not fear death. Soon, he enters his (short) driveway. He had wanted to be alone but has forgotten to turn his garage off, so as he comes in front of its doors he sees a summary of what is on for him tonight (pasta al Pesto, Charles Schwab's latest advice on his portfolio, and about 10 shows that his bot - Rufus - has selected for him). His wife opens the front door and smiles. For a second, he dreams that his eye implant allows him to zoom in on her mouth, which he adores. His kids are there too, although Myriam is in her room downloading some new backgrounds for her up-coming web meeting. Kids just love to change backgrounds and excel at building weird and uncanny places. Bill is proud of Myriam. She is lovely and very good with imaging, which leads him to believe that she will one day work with him.

As he walks into his living room, he sees the whole wall lit up with what seems to be a video game. It is in Japanese but he can always switch the programme back to English. All his house appliances have an IP address and can keep him informed about almost anything (temperature, government foreign policy, the latest mud fest). He is proud of his home server : the latest model of Terra Nova Linux microsystems. It simply never runs out of gas nor does it ever fail him. In fact, software firms's revenues (like his) depend on the number of simultaneous downloads from regional WAN. Jinny has won over Windows and so has open source code. Fiber optics run like river capillaries everywhere.

The Great Digital Amazon River. Bill sits down. His phone rings. He looks into its small LCD and sees the world. …. To be continued… perhaps… Headlines: RealNetworks buys Philips for 30 billion dollars. Software companies dominate the market and use their immense market cap to buy out manufacturers (2002); "The Mufta", a Pegasus Interactive Production, becomes first production to top 1 billion dollars in revenues. Broadband allows broadcast quality audio and video. Downlaoded on 5 continents on more than 20 000 mirror sites, "The Mufta" became the world best seller involving more than 20 million viewers/players. (2005). Winners: software development companies; cable, fibre optics, satellite operators; independent content producers; the consumer. Losers: traditional media conglomerate; traditional ad agencies.

Consumer 2010 The king of the zoo. The consumer is tracked, monitored, scanned, beamed, and, everybody-- everybody --competes for his attention. The consumer is submerged with brands, products, movies, sounds, widgets, snippets, gadgets, and more consumables. Like Aladdin, he merely has to wish to see it in front of him. But he has co-evolved with the system and benefits from the help of all kinds of bots, robots, e-bots, and nanobots (they clean beaches and arteries with the same remarkable resilience). Like an emperor whose empire extends into infinity, he relies on informers and chance to make his plays. Time reverts to a kind of medieval immanence where all happens synchronously, the spirit dwelling in interstices, artificial, unknowing and unknowable. Media is reduced to bits and pixels and constantly reshapes itself around an ever- growing number of devices at his whim. Even the act of paying is removed from his consciousness as his bots makes thousands of micro-payments per day on his behalf. In time, he forgets the sea of data, products, advertising, information, virtual worlds and avatars that surround him and out of the strange deafness that ensues, he hears the laughter of his child, or the rolling bellow of the sea. Connected to neural networks, his psyche learns to switch on and off faster and faster, getting relief from ever-diminishing time spans. And, in the middle of all the glare, to the great and utter dismay of senior management across the world, he starts to tune out.

TV manufacturer 2010 They are no longer. First bought out by large electrical companies, they have evolved into industrial design firms competing for every single piece of appliance possible. The screen market now incorporates architecture, textile, and all home appliances. Large zeibatzus are forming that include ex-broadcast companies, telco and software (ex: the Sony-Bandai-NTT conglomerate appropriately renamed ZIRCON (for its artificial scintillation).

Broadcaster 2010 and beyond… They are on the brink of extinction. After years of compulsive and desperate buy-outs, they cannot compete with the all-out content providers. Until 2005, they tried all kinds of strategies : advertising, pay per view, pay by subscription, free viewing but, by 2009, most of them have merged with either software or wire companies. In 2006, AOL/Turner sells half of all their media to Nortel. In 2050, what is left of ABC-Disney, Sony-CBS and NBC-Microsoft are but small shops in gigantic conclaves of the likes of Odu-Michiko-Palmer (weapons-genetic engineering-fiber optics) or Mazda-Betincourt (leisure industry). In fact, Mazda-Betincourt has spawned ABC museums both virtual and real to attract a dwindling population of nostalgics. Disney has sold to Huntington-Larsen-Lu, a Chinese-Norwegian conglomerate specialising in aerospace, hoping to sell its Mouse to aliens.”

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The Rosetta Stone. Author: Chrisian Turner, Ph.D., currently attending Stanford Law School.
The following individuals also contributed to these scenarios: Barbara J. Culliton (Executive Editor of the Genome News Network, Celera Genomics); Cynthia Afshari, Ph.D., (Director of the Microarray Center at the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences); Finley Austin (Asst. Director of Public Policy, Roche) and Anne Bowdidge (Director of Investor Relations, Affymetrix).

DNA. The chemical that carries the information necessary to produce all life on Earth. Many scientists believe that breakthought in understanding the genome have not begun to converge; understanding the genetic code is only one step in the beginning of a vast and incredible horizen of the genomics era. Dr. Turner offers up two possible future scenarios and explores some of the issues that may naturally arise from environmental policy. Major trends in genomic technologies forseen over the next 20 years to the year 2020, include: 1) the frontiers of environmental projects will occur inside the human body; 2) a vast increase in options for diagnosis, early intervention, and prevention; 3) increase in the involvement of doctors, insurance companies, diagnostic equipment manufacturers, drug companies, and others in the realm of environmental protection; 4) redefinition of the roles of regulatory agencies at both domestic and international levels; possibly shift grater responsibility for environmental health toward individuals; and 5) raise a host of new issues involving access, equity, and discrimination. Dr. Turner provides two scenarios.

The first scenario, Plaintiffs in the Post-Genome Era looks at social change and tort jurisprudence. In this world, a plaintiff’s claim is seldom subject to scientific investigation – science is clearly is an affirmed legitimacy to proponderance of the evidence. Key uncertainties: Will the increasing availability of individualized information regarding risk, exposure to toxic chemicals, and disease proceses cause a dramatic intensification of toxic tory litigation? To what degree might an expanding clas of successful plaintiff’s displace larger, social judgements about risk? In the second scenario, Grocery Store Genetics the ubiquity of genetic technologies is explored in the near-term future. It is a world that explores the plausibility of individualized “gene cards” wherein people have complete control over their genetic information. Thus, by carry these cards, people can be alerted to environmental exposure. Key uncertainties: Is individual empowerment really utopia? Is it possible genetic discrimination or genetic castes could appear even in a world of absolute genetic privacy? Will putting the ability to mitigate risks in the hands of the consumers reduce incentives to eliminate the sources of those risks when they also prove deleterious to wildlife and overall environmental quality? This paper also explores the developing countries and future exposure to growing toxicity. In conclusion, Dr. Turner discusses the simultaneous potential for genetic technologies to enhance and to threaten common humanity. Key question: What social structures exist or are needed to deal with these challenges in the future?

Scenario One: Plaintiffs in the Post-Genome Era – Proof by Genetic Assay in 2007. “The plaintiff sat nervously as the jury filed backed into the courtroom. This jury was about to announce an award that would have been inconceivable only five years earlier. There were over 8,000 others who had been exposed to the same contaminant as they had. Like the plaintiff, four of these others were afflicted with bladder cancer. Unlike the plaintiff they lacked a key piece of evidence connecting their cancer with the actions of the defendant. They lacked the genetic variant that rendered this successful plaintiff, Mike Harlan, highly susceptible to cancer following exposure to the arsenic that had appeared in the local drinking water. This case began two years ago, in 2005, when Mike was diagnosed with bladder cancer. Like many people who are suddenly faced with a life-threatening illness, Mike wondered why this was happening to him. So he asked his doctor. Thanks to genetic technology, an answer could be found. From a urine sample, cells from the lining of Mike's bladder were isolated. From these cells, the mRNA, the portions of Mike's genetic code which were then actively making proteins in the bladder, was isolated. Using new diagnostic equipment, the doctor was able to determine cheaply and quickly which genes were active in Mike's bladder cells and which variants of those genes Mike possessed. A computer analyzed the data and reported that the pattern of active genes was consistent with arsenic exposure. Another urine sample was used to test for arsenic directly, and it also indicated that Mike had been and was currently being exposed to arsenic at moderate but elevated levels. It did not take long to track down the likely source of the contamination. A nearby manufacturer of wood preservatives had shut down about five years earlier after a history of environmental violations and financial mismanagement. A site investigation revealed rusty storage tanks, some leaks, and high levels of arsenic in groundwater adjacent to the site. Mike's genetic testing had revealed a variant of a certain gene that rendered him many times more likely than the general population to develop bladder cancer following arsenic exposure at the exposure levels. Given the background incidence of bladder cancer, this meant that there was an 80 percent chance that Mike's bladder cancer was due to arsenic exposure. In the minds of the jurors, this figure, even allowing for scientific uncertainty and other potential sources of arsenic exposure, was enough to convince them that it was more likely than not that Mike's cancer was caused by the company's arsenic releases. After learning of Mike's situation, the rest of the small community near the abandoned plant also became concerned. Nearly all took their own genetic tests. Luckily, the level of arsenic in the water supply was simply too low to create any significant risk of bladder cancer in the average person. Indeed the arsenic levels were not much above a level that had been considered safe thirty years ago. Even those in the community who had the susceptibility gene but did not have bladder cancer faced only a small risk of developing bladder cancer. To win damages for the increased risk of developing cancer that the company had caused, they would need to show that they would probably develop bladder cancer, a standard that they were, happily for all involved, unable to meet.

The four people in the community besides Mike who already had bladder cancer were negative for the susceptibility gene. Statistically there was only a slight chance that their cancers were caused by the contamination -- not enough to win a lawsuit.” (Just after the scenario, Dr. Turner explores the promises and perils of genetic proof.)

Scenario Two: Grocery Store Genetics: Gene Cards, Discrimination, and Environmental Values – Post-Genome Shopper. “The market is filled with people buying groceries for the coming week. After reaching for a frozen dinner, a man stops to retrieve the card buzzing in his pocket. The display on this card reports that the dinner he has chosen contains a preservative which poses a small but not insignificant risk for his genotype. A combination of several genes results in his being at ten thousand times the risk of the general population for developing cancer from this preservative if it appears regularly in his diet. (The general population is at a one in ten million lifetime risk meaning a one in a thousand lifetime risk for our intrepid consumer.) The display lists alternatives that conform to his tastes and sends a request to the market's computers to carry some of the alternatives not in stock. The display next lists the latest information on therapeutic solutions to the sensitivity and other common items that present significant risk because of the sensitivity. Of course the card also serves as a personal organizer, a credit card, and the key to his house. Perhaps this is the year 2020, although similar technologies may begin to arrive sooner or later. Cards or some other genetic information device will likely emerge first as a way to prevent adverse effects of medication. Many pharmaceuticals have adverse effects on some users. Sometimes these effects can be severe and those affected cannot be identified in advance. In such cases, even if a drug is enormously beneficial for the great majority of users it may not be brought to market. Genetic information may identify those who cannot take a particular drug. Technology like the card could open the door to bringing much more effective drugs to market with fewer worries about adverse drug reactions -- users would be alerted to any conflicts through their card or pharmacist. Suppose that in the society in which our grocery shopper lives, genetic privacy is given the utmost protection. No one may have access to the information on the card without the express consent of the cardholder. Genetic information may only be used for the purposes for which it was disclosed and may not be transferred. This may seem an ideal scenario. Citizens are empowered by having the information they need when they need it to manage their own risk. No one else can obtain their genetic information to use against them. Some may argue that there will be no need for government to involve itself in regulating risk at all -- other than to see that it is accurately reported to individuals. It is not at all clear, however, that this would actually lead to a future that any of us would choose. (Dr. Turner continues with an analysis of the consequences of reduced uncertainty.)

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Scenarios of the Evolution of the Cosmos. Scenarios from the book, “The Whispering Pond – A Personal Guide to the Emerging Vision of Science.” Author: Ervin Laszlo, published in 1996 by Element Books Limited, Brisbane, Australia.

This recently published book by the author who wrote, "Vision 2020" (1994), is an amazingly easy read for the layperson wanting to understand in Cosmos, the new physics, scientific discoveries of manifestation of mind and quantum mechanics, but is too impatient to sit through more complex terminology. In "Whispering Pond", the author produces a new view of the cosmos: an interconnected, all-embracing cosmos of which we are all part. “By integrating the established vision of scientists with the paradoxes for which they cannot offer any explanation, his vision is a combination of agreed scientific wisdom and the exciting world of "new science". In Chapter 1, "The Evolution of the Cosmos", the author describes several scenarios of the very distant future of the cosmos. He calls them, The Cosmic Scenarios: "...As far as we know, we are aware of how the universe is today. But how will it be tomorrow... and in the more distant future? To this question various answers are possible> The universe may be open (infinitely expanding in cosmic space); it may be closed (reversing back on itself in a final Big Crunch); or it could be in a steady state, balanced on the razor's edge between expansion and contraction. It is flat, it will reach a steady state where the outward-pulling internal force of the initial explosion is precisely balanced by the inward-pulling force of gravitation, and it will remain in space (it has a spatial boundary beyond which it will not expand), is infinite in time. However, on the scenario that the universe is open, the force of expansion carries galactic matter further and further apart in space: the open universe is infinite in space as well as time. But, if the force of gravitation exceeds the force of expansion (perhaps around 1,000 billion years after the Big Bang), and thereafter begin to contract at ever higher velocities. It will collapse back onto itself in the Big Crunch scenario at a time horizon estimated at around 2,000 billion years. In consequence, the closed universe is finite both in space and in time. We do not know at this time whether the universe is open, closed, or flat. This depends on the exact amount of matter in cosmic space. If matter exceeds the critical threshold of 5 x 10 - 27 kg/cm3, we are living in a closed universe. IF it is just at that threshold, the universe is flat if it is below it, the cosmos is open. ... But as far as the ultimate fate of matter and life is concerned, the alternatives make little difference. In any case, the constructive phase in the evolution of the universe cannot continue indefinitely; cosmic evolution must sooner or later reverse into devolution. The reversal will come at different times in different places, but when it comes, it will be irreversible. Ultimately, all matter in the cosmos will degrade and disappear. . The macrostructures of the universe -- stars, stellar systems, galaxies, and galactic clusters -- will decay as well. . The author then describes in detail, the cosmic downhill scenario.

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Scenarios of the Future of Life on Mars – Mars a Search for Life. A scenario from the book, “The Search for Life on Mars” Author: Malcom Walter, published in 1999 by Allen & Unwin, Australia.

In this book, the author focuses on the similarities between Mars and early Earth. He discusses scientific evidence of microbial life, similar to boiling hot springs in Earch. In this annotation, the author outlines a blueprint that is a summation of many proposals by leading scientists, authors, and the space agency, NASA, then summarizes a detailed scenario of the plausibility of manned-missions to Mars.

Proposals from NASA - a summary includes: Mission - Launch Date – Objectives

Mission: Mars Climate Orbiter Date: 1999.   Objectives: Analysis of water, volatiles and climate
Mission: Geochamical Mapper Date 2001. Objective Analysis of elemental composition and global mineralogy
Mission: Mars Express (ESA/ASI) Date: 2003.    Objective: Travel to Mars
Mission: Sample Return (NASA) Date: 2003   Objective: Return from Mars
Mission: Sample Return Orbiter (CNES) Date: 2005. Retrieval and return to Earth of '03 and '05 samples.
Mission: Sample Return Orbiter (CNES) Date: 2009.   Retrieval and return to Earth of '07 and '09 samples
Mission: Sample Return Orbiter 9CNES) Date: 2013. Retrieval and return to Earth of '11 and '13 samples.

Beyond 2005. Inevitably someday there will be crewed (manned) missions to Mars. It is a challenge that is irresistible. It is frequently stated that such missions will not happen until well into the next century because we should first work through systematic program of observation and mapping from orbiters, unmanned rovers and other instruments. There are said to be recalcitrant technical problems to overcome, particularly health problems caused by zero gravity and cosmic radiation while in transit. But there is a growing band of articulate and informed specialists and enthusiasts advocating an early move to this phase of exploration. IT is said that the American people would not have supported prolonged robotic exploration of the Moon: the excitement generated by human missions was needed to keep the money flowing. Presumably the same will be true for Mars. ... Speculation by science fiction writers has played a significant role in keeping fresh and alive the possibility of people going to Mars... In an extraordinary book, "The Case for Mars", Robert Zurbrin and Richard Wagner set out a rationale for colonizing Mars. They attempt to demonstrate that it is technically feasible and economically achievable right now. The scenarios they envision are the lack of necessity of establishing bases on Mars. They envision mission trajectories involving he "conjunction option" – launch when the planets are on the opposite sides of the Sun - with six months travel each way and a stay of 550 days on the surface of Mars. This length of spaceflight has already been achieved by Russian cosmonauts aboard space station Mir, with apparently few ill effects. Former astronaut Michael Collins in his book “Mission to Mars” sees Mars as the next challenge for human exploration. This is a challenge that we will inevitable accept, as we have accepted all other geographic challenges. "
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EBook scenarios Online. Wilton Jan/Feb 2001. Vol. 25, Issue 1. Author: Mick O’Leary.

Many people are uncomfortable contemplating ebooks, among them many librarians, whose professions will be greatly altered, by ebooks. Nevertheless, the time for ebooks is coming quickly. The progress of ebooks will vary greatly with the type of print books they replace. Ebooks will be adopted in stages, which will depend on 2 primary factors: the degree to which the book is a tool and the degree to which the audience is ready to adopt ebooks. A scenario for the evolution is presented. Textbooks : “My daughter started college this past fall, accompanied by several hundred dollars' worth of heavy print textbooks. I told her that by the time she graduates, ebooks and readers will have largely replaced these. There is no area where the logic of ebooks makes more sense, or where there is a better match-up between the book as a tool and a technologically hip customer group. Instead of heavy, stretched-out, dorky-looking book bags, students will carry light, sleek ebook readers that contain a semester's worth of textbooks. Besides reading, students can search and annotate the text (highlighter manufacturers, beware!). Between semesters, the old texts are deleted and new ones loaded, presumably at a fraction of the cost of the print text (more on this later). Look for textbooks to be the vanguard of the ebook revolution.” Technical Manuals and Professional Books “Technical manuals have a lot in common with textbooks: they are tools; they are large and heavy; they become obsolete quickly; and there is relatively little emotional investment in them. Thus, a similar pattern will occur with technical manuals, guides, and handbooks in every subject. (Tomorrow's readers will have improved viewing capabilities for graphics and illustrations.) The users of these types of books will also be receptive to the changeover. So, the next time you buy a manual for the latest version of Windows, it may be a digital file in an ebook, instead of a 700-page paperback.”
Reference Books : “Reference books already have a long history of electronic usage. In fact, one of the earliest applications of computers was for automated literature searching, replacing cumbersome print indexes. Since then, thousands of reference books, from general encyclopedias and dictionaries to specialized sources, have been digitized and are commonly used online or as a CD-ROM. The adoption of reference ebooks will vary with type and size. It will be a long time, if ever, that you'll use the complete MEDLINE or Chemical Abstracts as an ebook. On the other hand, smaller and more frequently used reference sources, such as encyclopedias, dictionaries, and almanacs, will commonly reside in your ebook. (Or, if you have a wireless, Internet-connected device like a PDA or a cell phone, you may simply use the reference book from the Web, rather than downloading it to your reader-isn't technology amazing!) General Fiction and Non-Fiction “ These present a different scenario, since they are generally smaller, cheaper, and much more long-lived than texts, manuals, or professional books. They are purchased by a much broader demographic profile, which will generally be more resistant to ebooks. There will be a much wider continuum of print/ebook patterns. Popular fiction, self-help books, and light non-fiction may flourish in both formats indefinitely. Coffee table books have little or no appeal as ebooks.” EBooks in Libraries “ If the authors, publishers, and readers are moving toward ebooks, what about the intermediaries: booksellers and libraries? Booksellers will face an immediate commercial challenge as readers start buying ebooks directly from the Web. Libraries have a different, and in several ways, larger challenge. Even a small college library or medium-size public library has many more books than the largest Borders or Barnes and Noble bricks-and-mortar bookstore. Libraries also have additional responsibilities for selection, cataloging, reference support, and collection maintenance. Ebooks change the basic definition of a library collection, creating a very different perspective on the print book collection. The classic library collection is a set of books acquired for their presumed interest to the library's clientele. However, some of the key circulation statistics that come out of this model can be disturbing: percentage of books in circulation at any one time; average number of times a book is circulated per year; number of books that are circulated only a few times or not at all; and cost per book circulation. In an age that values "just in time" inventories rather than "just in case" ones, these statistics can expect to receive close scrutiny, especially by e-generation bosses, managers, and board.
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Broad Band: Pipe Dream or Reality? Red Herring, May 2000. Author: Peter Schwartz

There are many challenges to broadband, particularly extending DSL capabilities to the home. The day of simple installation of DSL - plug-and-play - appears to continue to be in the distant in the future. In the present, trying to hookup broadband into the home can be extremely frustrating. The author describes three medium term scenarios on the future of broadband: Scenario 1) Least Likelihood: “The least likely is the rapid rollout scenario, which depends on the fast development of a competent installation-and-support industry. In such a future, broadband access could reach 40 million subscribers by 2005. Probably the best candidate to lead the charge would be one of the large home-security companies. ADP, for example, already has a foothold in many homes and a fairly large base of reasonably sophisticated installation workers. But unless they or someone like them moves soon, this scenario won't happen.” Scenario 2: Slow Rollout: “The second scenario is the slow rollout. This relies on companies like the local phone companies, cable companies, and independent contractors gradually developing the necessary skills and hiring the employees to meet demand. In this case, we wouldn't reach 40 million users until late in this decade.” Scenario 3: Like the Early Days: “The final scenario is a version of the pushback scenario I defined in the first installment of this column. The deployment of broadband and the accompanying home networks might begin to resemble a combination of the early days of the cable and aluminum-siding industries. Questionable, even illegal, practices combined with shoddy workmanship in a complex and fragile technology lead to rejection in the marketplace. The demand for broadband is here now, and the technologies are about ready, but if the support services don't measure up, people may turn to another technology or reject broadband altogether. The promise of true digital convergence could be delayed for another decade. The bottom line is that there is a huge emerging opportunity to help America build out not only the broadband networks connecting us to the world, but also the networks that link the technologies within our homes. I suspect that companies will eventually get rich meeting that demand. Let's hope that they are both honest and competent, or the emerging potential of broadband may recede over the horizon and a great opportunity will be lost.”
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Boom Town: `Grumpy' Won't Say What's Next for Yahoo! But Scenarios Abound. Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2001. Author: Kara Swisher

What is the future of Yahoo? It may seem an unusual question to ask in the context of the Millennium Project, but. Yahoo is significant because it represents an extraordinary success story in the new economy. All over Silicon Valley, people ask, Will Yahoo buy a big media company like Walt Disney Co.? Or, perhaps a piece of a telecommunications or cable player? What about a tasty bite of a satellite concern, such as one owned by News Corp.? That rumor swept the online world recently, although any such deal is more likely to be a simple distribution arrangement, since Yahoo is one of the Internet's pickiest and cheapest shoppers. The following four scenarios illustrate some possibilities: Scenario 1) Featurettes: “The most obvious acquisitions for Yahoo would be among the scads of tiny dot-com companies that seem to be created daily with the sole purpose of being bought. Some possible candidates, for example, include party-invitation sites, such as Mambo.com, or specialized buying sites, such as DealTime.com, which allows comparison shopping. Specializing on a single feature or tool, these kinds of "concept" businesses will have a harder time standing alone. In fact, many of their creators hope for a big payoff by becoming a nice end table in the Yahoo mansion. Yahoo has already made many such investments. Examples range from its $10 million purchase of Log-Me-On, a browser-tool maker, to its $7 million investment in E-Loan Inc. And Yahoo will probably keep grabbing others to fill in gaps in its service. But it's also likely that the company will wait until some of these "futurists" are running out of venture funding and can be bought more cheaply. Scenario 2) Yabay: “Some think Yahoo is most likely to link with another online power – Excite At Home, for example -- to gain more reach and heft. But don't bet on it. While Yahoo lost its bid for Excite to At Home last year, today it doesn't badly need to add to its now-dominant audience. The same goes for Lycos Inc. and other lower-tier portals that Yahoo considered buying a year ago. Yahoo might be more interested in solidifying its fast-growing role as an "enabler" of commerce or services by, say, scooping up a big niche player like eBay Inc. While eBay's market capitalization is about 25% of Yahoo's, making such a deal pricey, the auction house's giant audience of daily traders offers a spate of cross-marketing possibilities. A potential stumbling block: eBay has a multiyear marketing and distribution deal with AOL. Another possible choice: InfoSpace.com Inc. ($24.7 billion valuation), which provides a range of content and services such as phone directories, horoscopes and stock quotes to hundreds of Web sites and now to wireless devices that could help take Yahoo everywhere.” Scenario 3) Yahoo Everywhere: Yahoo also could strike a series of deals to become the interactive service of record for a range of companies that need it. For example, why not link it more strongly with Finnish cellular telephone giant Nokia Corp. to form a Nokia.com super-site that could serve information and services to mobile customers worldwide? Or make a deal with Ford Motor Co. or others to allow Yahoo to be the "dashboard" of interactive screens soon likely to be springing up in cars. The possibilities are endless: Yahoo on refrigerator-door screens; Yahoo on shopping kiosks; Yahoo at Starbucks. What's the Frequency, Yahoo? Last year, a top Yahoo executive jokingly asked: "Do you think I could be Dan Rather's boss?" It wasn't an idle query, as it turned out, because both Yahoo and AOL held preliminary talks with CBS Corp. before Viaco. Inc. snapped it up late last year. People close to the situation report that CBS's Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin was burning up the phone lines after the AOL-Time Warner deal looking for more online clout. (CBS declined to comment.) While a deal that would merge Yahoo and Viacom-CBS is unlikely, more probable would be cross-marketing and distribution arrangements of content and services between them. Yahoo could do this with many traditional media companies, giving them access to Yahoo's vast online platform. Yahoo's recent plans -- as yet unannounced -- to build a small broadcast studio near its headquarters, provide a clue to the company's plans. Noting a marketing deal with Kmart Corp, one Yahoo executive spun this scenario: Homestyle empress Martha Stewart (also allied with Kmart) broadcasting tips on Yahoo's high-speed service, with hyperlinks to commerce and other information. Scenario 4) Bigger Is Better “Or, Yahoo could simply get bought. While its long-time executives would probably make such a move only if they felt they had taken the company as far as they could, there are some who think that it's not such a bad idea in the end. And such a notion could become more pressing if the market ever whacks Yahoo's huge stock valuation.
Microsoft Corp. is the most likely contender. Yahoo would give the software giant a weapon to combat its most potent foe, AOL. Among other possible suitors would be Japan's Sony Corp. (Yahoo as the front screen and service provider on new Internet appliances, with Sony content woven throughout the Yahoo service) and AT&T Corp. (Yahoo as the first screen on its cable systems and as the connection point for consumers wanting telephone service over the Web.)”
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Virtual Reality Interface Way of the Future. Wells Amanda. The Dominion, 04/17/2000.

In 2025, instead of sending e-mails, mankind will be sending "experiences". Victoria University doctoral student Minako O'Hagan created three such scenarios of future technology to paint potential futures of language translation. Her prediction is based on the theory of Hyper Reality, which says the Internet will move away from a text-based form to one based on experience. Virtual Polyglot Space: One scenario envisages the Internet in 2025 and the development of a technological environment called Virtual Polyglot Space. In this world, anyone can step virtually into this space and communicate in any language, without having to consciously consider language issues. “As well as translating the spoken word, this VPS would translate non-verbal cues.” Though this scenario may seem far-fetched, the author asserts that 20 years ago, no one could have envisaged the shape of the Internet today. Ms O'Hagan says distributed interpretation involves a totally different mindset. "You shift the meeting into cyberspace." Because video and voice technologies have not reached the required standard, the translating through this medium is still experimental. “But language translation services have always picked up new technology,” according to O’Hagan.
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LIVING IN SPACE / Child of the Stars / A very young astronaut has more frontiers to Explore. Sylvia Rubin, The San Francisco Chronicle, 11/16/99.

A scenario of living in space in the year 2020. Living in Space: “The bidding was fierce. Brad Garcia, 35, who made his fortune in biotechnology, hung in there until he outbid every other multibillionaire on Earth for the decommissioned International Space Station. The deal closed May 31, 2020. He renamed it the G-One. He had big plans. Garcia and his wife, Ivy, a former astronaut, have a 7-year-old daughter, Molly. She became the focus of an international uproar when Garcia announced plans to expose her to lengthy periods of weightlessness while she was still in diapers. Using the latest in genetically modified food and microgravity survival techniques, Molly is being groomed to be the solar system's first explorer of deep space.
"There is nowhere my little girl can't go," Garcia says. NASA doctors fear Molly may suffer hidden cellular changes, possibly even brain damage. But Garcia's own team of astrobiologists have yet to confirm the evidence. Starting with short trips into low Earth orbit, Garcia and his wife have taken Molly on annual space holidays, accompanied by a team of specialists. Molly has so far shown no signs of distress and even enjoys the trips.
Now, he plans to have Molly start fourth grade on G-One next year in an elaborately equipped "Countdown Campus" wing of the space station, complete with rotating crews of tutors, doctors and counselors recruited from top universities around the world. Molly, who has been nourished with smart drugs and life-extending antioxidants, wants to be just like her mom -- a stellar astronaut. Garcia has endowed a research institute at the University of California at San Francisco to study her physiology and developmental progress. She's precocious; her IQ is off the scale. Garcia is offering million-dollar stipends to families willing to allow their children to visit Molly for weeklong space play dates on G-One.
The Garcias have had regular arguments about whether to continue the experiment. But as conditions have worsened on Earth, the arguments have become less frequent. Life on Earth has not inspired confidence: The seas have risen and flooded most coastal cities, Africa has yet to recover from the AIDS epidemic. Ancient signs of microbial life have been detected on Mars and at least two Jovian moons, suggesting that it may be ubiquitous in the galaxy. Space exploration has become popular worldwide. Results from the Europa Orbiter, launched in 2003, confirmed that the Jovian moon has a vast liquid ocean. Subsequent missions pinpointed several landing sites on the moon's thick outer crust. A 2018 submarine exploration found evidence of microbial life at the bottom of the sea -- strong evidence to suggest human colonies might be possible.
In 2020, after Mollygate finally blew over, the little girl became a symbol of hope for extending humankind's reach. Great Beyond Enterprises, Garcia's space subsidiary, is completing a two-person craft to carry Molly and a pilot to Europa. Heartsick about being separated from her daughter, Ivy wants to be onboard.
Over breakfast of shuttle-grown wheat grass and reconstituted banana smoothies in the G-One's master suite, the couple agreed to send Molly on the unprecedented mission -- accompanied by her 49- year-old mother.
The 10-year mission will include enough protein and oxygen generators to allow the two crewmembers to survive for 20 years. But the plan is to have mother and daughter back in time for Molly's 18th birthday. On the launch date, Garcia throws the world's most expensive goodbye party, setting up tents with free food and drink in every city, town and village on Earth.”
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Using Scenarios in Planning a Digital Information Service. Marthie G. de Kock, South African Journal of Library & Information Science, Jun98, Vol 66 Issue 2, p47, 10p, 1 chart, 1 diagram.

In the development of a virtual or digital information service, planning is always essential. This article details the methodology of scenarios, which are often relied upon by forecasters. A transformation or “paradigm shift” is currently taking place in information services. This is caused by the abundance of electronic information available via the Internet and by means of various electronic information technologies. Efforts are being made to plan an environment or electronic information technology infrastructure in which to deploy all the electronic information. Managers are challenged to determine their own roles while envisioning either an electronic text centre, a digital information service or a virtual information service depending on the choice of a term. What are scenarios? “Scenarios are hypothetical, because the future is unpredictable. In creating scenarios, the planner has to make certain key assumptions about the future. Scenarios outline the boundaries of possible change and cannot be seen as complete pictures of the future. Scenarios are multidimensional and holistic, because comprehensive and broad images of the future are drawn. Change is never simplistic; therefore scenarios are complex, interwoven and interdisciplinary sketches of the future… Scenarios first emerged following World War II as a method applied for military planning. The United States Air Force tried to imagine what their opponents might do, and then proactively prepared alternative strategies. In the 1960s, Herman Kahn, who had been part of the Air Force effort, refined scenarios as a tool for business prognostication. Scenarios reached a new dimension in the 1970s, with the work of Pierre Wack and other planners at Royal Dutch/Shell, the international oil enterprise. By creating scenarios during those years they anticipated the oil price crisis, when apparently nobody else had. Scenarios provide a tool for forecasting long-range, complex and highly uncertain business environments. However, scenarios should be re-evaluated and revised on a regular basis including the external forces that influence the success or failure of decisions made… Scenarios are successful if they help managers to acquire more insight into the risks, vitality and flexibility of various decisions and supply management with a strong position from which to operate.”
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Transportation Scenarios – Two Transport Visions. James J. MacKenzie, Annals of the American Academy of Political & Social Science, Sept.’97, Vol. 553, p192, 7p.

Explores two different possible future scenarios for ground transportation in the United States.
This article explores two quite different possible futures for U.S. ground transportation. The first represents a plausible extension of current trends: heavy reliance on oil to fuel gasoline - and diesel-powered cars and trucks, continued expansion of the road network to keep pace with the growth in vehicle use, little effort to integrate urban land-use planning and transportation, and no significant shift to innovative forms of public transportation. The second scenario seeks to define a sustainable transportation system that can run on renewable energy sources and provide options for travel where today there are few. Scenario: Business as Usual: “Current trends in vehicle fuel use and associated problems are characterized by unbridled growth.
Largely as a result of the growth in the motor vehicle fleet, total motor vehicle fuel consumption -- as well as carbon dioxide emissions --has been steadily rising, and there is little indication that this kind of growth will change soon. Using the National Energy Modeling System, the Department of Energy projects a 20-30 percent increase in motor vehicle oil consumption by 2010. Fuel trends are not the only problematic ones. Congestion is another. It is one of the most troublesome long-term problems faced by motor vehicle drivers and one of the most frequently cited issues in the debate on urban transportation planning. Nationally, current trends indicate that congestion will continue to grow. By the year 2005, delays have been projected to increase between 300 and 500 percent over 1985 levels. In Los Angeles, congestion has already reduced average freeway speeds to less than 31 miles per hour; by the year 2010, they are projected to fall to 11 miles per hour. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), "Congestion now affects more areas, more often, for longer periods, and with more impacts on highway users and the economy than at any time in the nation's history.” Alternative Scenario: A More Attractive Pathway: “How might transportation look if a more reasoned approach were taken? The easy part to this question centers on the sustainable fuels that we should come to rely on. If the nation were to move to very efficient, emissionless vehicles powered by renewable energy sources (such as electricity, or fuel cells with the hydrogen derived from photovoltaic cells, wind turbines, or other renewable technologies), the current atmospheric and security impacts associated with motor fuels would, over time, disappear, irrespective of the size of the vehicle fleet. Concentrations of smog and carbon monoxide, largely the result of vehicle emissions would be greatly reduced. Greenhouse gas emissions would be similarly cut. The sides over our cities would begin to clear, and the threat of global warming would recede. This alternative future would also provide more options to the current exclusive reliance on cars and trucks. Integrated land-use and transportation planning would give greater emphasis to non-motorized possibilities such as walking and bicycling paths as well as innovative forms of public transit such as personal rapid transit (PRT). The scenario goes on to describe PRT systems. PRT systems in the 21st century consist of small, dedicated, computer-operated electric vehicles capable of carrying three or four seated passengers. The vehicles ride on their own electrified guideways, either elevated or below ground, allowing the vehicles to travel safely at high speeds independently of existing motor vehicle traffic. In a properly designed system, there should be a PRT station within a 10-minute walk of almost any point in a metropolitan area. PRT systems would gradually be retro fitted to many cities, especially in suburban areas, connecting residential developments, shopping centers, universities, hospitals, train stations, airports, and business centers. The elderly, the young, and the disabled would have ready access to PRT and the myriad services that it provides access to. Existing retail strip developments would be gradually replaced with commercial and residential buildings; the retail shops, in turn, would be co-located at transportation nodes. These changes would permit consumers to use public transit to meet many of their shopping needs. Bikeways and walking paths would be constructed in suburban areas, encouraging non-motorized shopping and travel. In this alternative future, U.S. cities would be far less subservient to cars. Streets would be quieter. The air would be cleaner. There would be more options for travel and, at the same time, less need to travel because of mixed residential and retail development. Those persons preferring to live in single-family homes could readily do so and still have less of a need to drive because of opportunities to bike, walk, take personal public transit, or telecommute.” For more, see original article.
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Headline: Medusa’s Child ABC Movie’s Doomsday Scenario is a Plausible Armageddon. Walter A. Combs, Tribune Media Services, The Buffalo News, November 16, 1997.

Scenario of an embittered scientist, whose weapon project was canceled by the Defense Department, continues the work on his own. He creates a doomsday device triggered by a nuclear explosion, which emits a powerful electromagnetic pulse that “fries all the computer chips in North America.” Modern technological society comes to a halt. Medusa’s Child: “The dying scientist, Rogers Henry, asks his ex-wife Vivian whom he terrorized while they were married, to take a prototype of his "Medusa" project to Washington as a final favor to him. She reluctantly agrees, and after an initial freight-scheduling snafu, gets the device aboard a novice freight-carrier's initial flight. Scott Nash the freight company's owner and pilot, eventually realizes what he's carrying, as do the FBI and the Defense Department, and a mad scramble to prevent the device from unleashing catastrophe begins.
Nash, his crew, and a lovely meteorologist aboard the flight are trying to get the equipment to Washington to observe a powerful hurricane as it devastates the East Coast, and Vivian end up risking their lives to prevent the catastrophe. A top general wants to inspect the device to deactivate it and discover how it works, and the president of the US and an FBI agent simply want to keep the thing from blowing up. For fans of these types of movies, there are plenty of heroes to root for, villains to hoot at and bureaucrats to despise on the way to a fairly predictable climax.
But beneath the surface of this run-of-the-mill entertainment lies a plausible disaster scenario. "Medusa's Child" author John J. Nance elaborates: "There's only one small, intuitive leap here. If you took an ordinary nuclear weapon, even a one-megaton one, and lofted it 300 miles over Kansas and exploded it, you would do the same exact amount of damage as the Medusa wave in my book. In other words, you would wipe out all the computer chips in North America that were unshielded. That's been known for a long time. That's been one of the horror visions the Defense Department faced back during the Cold War. What if the Soviets tried that? They would shut us down.” Nance says, “Up to about 20 years ago, we had our society pretty hardened, and we were nowhere near as dependent, or at least one order of magnitude less dependent, on computer technology than we are today. The thing that fascinated me was just taking a leap on this basis: What happens if we create a nuclear weapon that creates not only the standard electromagnetic pulse, but a super magnetic pulse that from ground level or near-ground level will do the same kind of job of blanketing the continent?”
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Blessings from the Book of Life. David Stipp, Fortune, 3/6/00.

Decoding the human genome will yield a bounty of biotech miracles that will transform our lives in the next 40 years. Scenarios of biotechnology. By 2010: “We'll start winning the war on cancer. Say you experience back pain, night sweats, and loss of appetite, and then find an egg-like swelling under your arm. Today a doctor would analyze biopsied cells from your lump with an instrument using 400-year-old technology, the microscope, and make an educated guess: You have non-Hodgkins lymphoma. You'd get one-size-fits-all chemotherapy that might work. If it doesn't, your doc would tell you not to despair--other drugs might save you. In 2010 your doctor will scan your biopsied cells with a DNA array, a computer-chip-like device that registers the activity patterns of thousands of genes in cells. It will quickly establish that your lymphoma is actually one of six genetically distinguishable types of T-cell cancer, each of which is known to respond best to somewhat different drugs. Another gene-testing device called a SNP ("snip") chip will flag medicines that won't work in your case because your particular liver enzymes tend to break them down too fast. Since your first round of therapy will hit your tumor cells square on, your odds of achieving lasting remission will be very good. You'll have years and years to stop and smell the roses--your favorites will be the bio-engineered blue ones.” The most exciting thing about this scenario is that it's already in the works. With DNA arrays made by Affymetrix of Santa Clara, Calif., researchers at the Whitehead Institute in Cambridge, Mass., recently showed that they could distinguish different forms of leukemia according to abnormal patterns of gene activity in cancerous blood cells. This tumor "genotyping" helped cast suspicion on one patient's diagnosis--a separate genetic analysis proved it was wrong, prompting a change in treatment. By 2020: “Drug development will be vastly accelerated by techniques akin to testing new aircraft designs in wind tunnels, predicts Joshua Boger, CEO of Vertex Pharmaceuticals, a Cambridge, Mass., biotech company. Researchers will begin clinical trials by giving safe, tiny doses of, say, half-a-dozen possible variations of a new medicine to volunteers. The drugs' effects on thousands of genes and proteins will be monitored and analyzed by computer to predict how higher "therapeutic" doses will affect people of various genotypes. That will enable researchers to select the optimal molecules and immediately begin large, pivotal clinical trials, skipping initial phases of testing that now often take years. The result: Gene-based drugs geared to patients' genotypes will be available for most major killers. Some big diseases will be on the way out—rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases such as lupus will be essentially curable by drugs that selectively switch off parts of the immune system that attack patients' own tissues. Potent new therapies will be available to treat once mysterious diseases, such as schizophrenia and narcolepsy, at the level of root causes. If your finances aren't devastated in the crash of 2011, you'll be able to afford treatments that let you look as if you've hardly aged during the past decade. If you're male, gene therapy shampoos will reverse your pattern baldness. If you tend toward obesity, drugs tailored to your genotype will let you benignly alter your energy metabolism and fearlessly chow down. Biofacials will rev up dermal genes that make antioxidants and DNA-repairing enzymes, slowing time's toll on your face.” For more on the scenario, see article. By 2040: “Individualized preventive medicine will be the gold standard. Gene therapy, as well as more traditional gene-based drugs, will be available for most diseases. It will be possible to hold most cancers in check for many years. Alzheimer's disease, which will be detectable before symptoms appear, will usually be preventable. The average life span in the developed world will top 90. U.S. health costs will reach a third of GDP. Key genes involved in aging will be identified, and clinical trials of anti-aging drugs will be under way. A consortium of life insurers will help fund the trials, counting on the medicines to boost their profits by delaying boomers' life-insurance payouts. Cryopreserved embryos of endangered animals, many of, which will have become extinct since their embryos were put on ice, will be thawed and cloned. The animals will be placed in special animal refuges for the remembrance of things past. Artificial life forms will be reproducing and evolving in the lab. They won't be mini-Frankenstein monsters. "They'll be autonomous, self-reproducing systems created to do useful things in specific environments," opines Stuart Kauffman, a theoretical biologist in Santa Fe. For instance, DNA-like nanomachines will be engineered to spread through patients' cells and churn out selected proteins in quantities geared to correct out-of-kilter metabolic states.” For more on the scenario, see article.
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In the Sky: Visions of the Information Future. Barbara Searcher Quint, Jan 2000, Vol. 8 Issue 1, p127, 4p.

Presents a compilation of predictions on information technology by leading information professionals. Significance of electronic commerce; forecast on the Baby Boom generation; radical scenarios of change in the third millennium. An essay appears as a chapter in I in the Sky: Visions of the Information Future, a compilation of predictions by leading information professionals, edited by Alison Scammell, published by ASLIB, and available from Portland Press in the U.K. In the Sky: Visions of the Information Future: “Toward the end of the first century of the Second Millennium, a group of English scholars and bureaucrats worked on a memento for the time called the Doomesday Book. Here we are on the edge of the Third Millennium (give or take a week or two), a group of English-speaking men and women joined in another "doomsday" venture: predicting the future, not just for a mere century but for a millennium. Suicide pills in our pockets, our happy band approaches the task clinging to the knowledge that, unless medical researchers have grossly underestimated their success rate, at least we'll be long gone before anyone starts sneering at our ridiculous misperceptions.” For more on the scenario, see article.
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Three Scenarios on the Future of Technology and Democracy. Benjamin Barber, Political Science Quarterly, 1998.

The theme of technology and society has become a popular topic for futurists, but the relationship between democracy and technology remains in many ways, ambiguous. According to Barber, it is essential that this relationship be better understood. Is technological growth likely to support or corrupt freedom? Are we finally to be mastered by the tools with which we aspire to master the world? The conventional wisdom suggests that science and technology, by opening up society and creating a market of ideas, foster more open politics and markets. With the increasing rate of change typical of modern societies as a fundamental assumption, Barber explores three scenarios. Scenario 1. The Pangloss Scenario: "This scenario is rooted in complacency and is simply a projection of current attitudes and trends. Pop futurologists believe that technology will solve nearly all societal problems. Al Gore and other techno-zealots believe that computers for the poor and hard wired schools will begin to solve poverty and education; that technology will improve our lives and that we can rely on market forces to realize the perfect technological future. However, as broadband width expanded and a multiple spectra developed, real content programming has remained somewhat limited - the same as it had been for the past ten years. Entertainment continues to be dominated by monopolies of Anglo-American production companies. The domination of these new technologies by the market assures that to a growing degree, the profit making entertainment industry in the Anglo-American world will control what is seen around the globe…" Scenario 2. The Pandora Scenario: "This scenario looks at the worse possible case in terms of the inherent dangers of technological determinism. Barber envisions what may happen if government consciously sets out to utilize technology as a means of standardization, control, or repression. With credit and insurance organizations accumulating huge information files on clients, there are driving factors that make this scenario plausible. here is high cost to privacy. This world measures the potential for monopoly and control over information and communication and new technology can become a dangerous facilitator over tyranny. Technology in itself cannot corrupt democracy, but its potential for benign dominion cannot be ignored..." Scenario 3. The Jeffersonian Scenario: "This is a world in which the new technologies, in themselves, can offer powerful assistance to the life of democracy. A free society is free only to the degree that its citizens are informed and that communication among them is open and informed. According to Barber, this scenario out of the three, is the least probably and "in this sense, a guarded optimism if possible about technology and democracy, but only if citizen groups and governments take action in adapting the new technology to their needs." Examples are using the new technologies such as the interactive capabilities of recent television and Internet technology for civic education or using electronic communication to overcome regional parochialism, local prejudice, and national chauvinism. "Technology has made the metaphor of the global village an electronic reality..."
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Visions of the NII: Ten Scenarios. The National Information Infrastructure Taskforce, 1998. <HYPERLINK http://www.nii.org http://www.nii.org>

The National Information Infrastructure (NII) is an evolving set of information access, information sharing, transactional, and interpersonal communications networks and information resources that will enhance the working and personal lives of all Americans. Taskforce This White Paper illustrates some uses of tomorrow's NII, and outlines ten scenarios which accompany underlying technologies that are required to work together to make these scenarios possible. Scenario 1. "Homing" From Work: A day in the life of Rita Randolph, tending to family emergencies using video cam on her desk computer at work, voice commands, a home-control map, panels for intelligent home appliances. Scenario 2. Businesses United: A day in the life of Fred, a corporate manager. Technologies utilized to connect companies together using multimedia and interactive email, coordinated screen displays between distant computers, smart online information services, customizable and intuitive user interface and virtual networks. Scenario 3. Home Entertainment, Information, and Shopping: A day in the life of Ron, who took an early break from work to enjoy his home entertainment systems. Technologies utilized to maximize entertainment, information and shopping at home: video on demand in selectable qualities, wall-sized, flat, high-resolution video, high bandwidth for visually oriented shopping and games, customized information presentations, new service retrieving, home shopping at electronic shopping malls. Scenario 4. Intelligent Transportation Systems: A day in the life of Paul, a salesman, who needs to navigate the intelligent transportation system to get to an early morning meeting. Technologies utilized to maximize efficient transportation: intelligent highway systems with video surveillance cameras and roadway sensors to collect information; traffic management systems; ubiquitous wireless networking for voice, data, and video. Scenario 5. Senior Citizen Use: A day in the life of a retired grandmother relying on "televisits" to see her grandsons from across the world. Technologies utilized to maximize effective communication systems among the elderly: High two-way bandwidth supporting videoconferencing; immediate access to essential services providers, such as doctors, with strong privacy protection capabilities; large-screen, high-resolution computer displays; limited speech recognition to control telecommunications services, especially for emergency access. Scenario 6. Starting a Business: A day in the life of a couple deciding to launch a small business they’d always dreamed of - multimedia games over the NII. Technologies to maximize the "virtual": government databases providing both information and services on an immediate basis; regulatory environment allowing online interstate registrations, online legal services, and worldwide protection mechanisms for intellectual property; high bandwidth supporting visual communication; human, as well as machine, information specialists to help individuals locate and use electronic information resources; multimedia information sharing and interpersonal communications. Scenario 7. Middle School From Home: A day in the life of Pauline, a ninth grader, using the school network on the NII to enhance her logical thinking skills on algorithms, abstraction principles, and programming techniques; computerization and data networking in schools, with high-speed connection into the NII and GII; audiovisual personal computers. Scenario 8. Telemedicine: A day in the life of Dr. Sendak, working through telemedicine to enhance visualization tools to convey key concepts in pathology, clinical experience, and conventional and experimental therapies. Key technologies that enhance tele-medicine: High-speed networking for videoconferencing, large file transfers, and real-time computer visualization of data; networked supercomputing resources for medical and educational applications. Scenario 9. Government Services: A day in the life of Dan, an unemployed programmer using government services on the NII to take care of his drivers license renewal and job searching. Technology requirements for effective job searching (and interviewing on-line): Networking capacity and services for videotelephony, multimedia e-mail and file transfers, and authentication and security functions; high-speed networking for video communications and large file transfers; identity verification by voice ; speech recognition systems; extensive databases of government information available to the public with easy-to-use navigational capabilities. Scenario 10. Law Enforcement: A day in the life of officer Gutierrez who stops a speeding vehicle through an intercare emergency intercom and through technology, arrests the driver, wanted for armed robbery. Technology supportive of effective enforcement: Wireless networking, both terrestrial cellular in populated areas and by low-earth-orbiting satellite in sparsely populated areas, with capacity adequate for emergency video and image transmission; visual databases with visual pattern-matching searching in high-powered computers; linking of law enforcement databases, with policy-based restrictions limiting content and access; widely deployed videotelephony services; and voice interaction with communications equipment and networks.
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General Motors' White Paper: Perspectives on the Future of Transportation in the Age of Information. Taskforce for The Workshop Institute for a New California, 1997

This paper was prepared for "The Information Age and the California Infrastructure" Workshop Institute for the New California, San Francisco, 1997. Within the next 20 years, the United States and the world will undergo unprecedented change. Some of the key forces driving change include: explosive growth of computing; accelerating technology; globalization; urbanization; increasing access to consumer goods; enhanced transportation systems; and growing disparity in lifestyles between knowledge workers and the educationally disadvantaged. The authors believe that all these forces will significantly impact the mobility of people, goods, and information - which in turn will profoundly influence how the personal transportation industry develops in the 21st century. By developing a range of scenarios, General Motors has created an "early warning system" to alert the company to potentially significant future events. Scenario 1. Technology Reigns: "In a world where technology reigns, society's needs can all be met through technological solutions. Innovations in vehicle technology and roadway infrastructure have led to decreased travel time and improved satisfaction with vehicular travel - despite increasing numbers of vehicles on the road. The information superhighway is well-developed, and people have the ability to communicate at any time from any location. The personal computer is just that - a "personal" device carried by each individual for communication and information needs…Virtual meetings are common and society is paperless, cashless; technology creates new employment opportunities and knowledge workers do most of their work activities from home…" Scenario 2. Momentum: "In a world of momentum, society continues to build on the technology developments of the last decades of the 20th century. Innovation flows along expected avenues. In fact, technology is harnessed to protect the status quo of American lifestyles. People are able to maintain their traditional consumption patterns without detriment to the environment. Society continues to be mobile, and people are slow to substitute virtual for real. In fact, slow-to-change social habits inhibit the introduction of radically new technology. Developments in information technology impact transportation systems, but the primary emphasis is on transactions between vehicle and information provider; automated highway system technologies are coming along more slowly. Heavy industries continue to move offshore, but are being replaced by higher-value industries that require an educated work force..." Scenario 3. Environmental Domination: "With global warming no longer a theory, the environment takes center stage and dominates all other social and economic influences. The serious environmental situation drives every decision in both the public and personal arenas. Given the bleak environmental outlook, our values and culture undergo fundamental change. Support is universal for stringent environmental regulations which require sacrifice on the part of all. Consumption is now viewed as extravagance, and people scale back their desire for physical goods. People move closer to urban centers and locate near public transportation nodes. Pressures against commuting and extraneous travel have caused a boom in the virtual mobility industry. European-style, high-speed mass transit gains public support in the U.S., while personal vehicles and the fuel they require are taxed at a high level. In this world, the automotive industry sells transportation rather than vehicles. Industry ownership of vehicles ensures regular updating to more efficient powerplants and systems and recycling of used materials and fluids…" Scenario 4. Geopolitical Realignment: "The future is a whole new world, as economic factors drive the formation of new geopolitical trading groups. The actions of governments are increasingly influenced by trade considerations, and the world is moving toward one global economy. Driven by business interests, peace breaks out throughout the world. Geographic and political barriers are diminished, with information flowing easily across borders. As the population continues to expand, many cities become megalopolises requiring large-scale mass transit systems. Even so, personal vehicles remain very much in demand. These are of varied size and utility, depending on the needs, desires, lifestyle, and geographic location of individual consumers. Fuel prices are relatively inexpensive; however, alternatives to petroleum are used increasingly. With the need to protect the environment and resources, the trend is toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Many cities have green regions, which limit vehicle access or allow only zero-emission vehicles..."
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Creating the Future: Scenarios for the Digital Economy Innovators of Digital Economy Alternatives, Simon Fraser University, 1998

In conjunction with the support of the School of Communication at Simon Fraser University, IDEA - Innovators of Digital Economy Alternatives are a team researching the future opportunities and obstacles that may arise from the adoption of digital commerce technology, specifically: digital cash, smart cards, home banking and other possible future technologies for the purpose of enhancing strategy. Scenario 1. Centralized Power "Corporations Rule": (driving forces: immigration, age, increasing corporate power; financial convergence; on-line banking; traceable cash technologies). " In the year 2020, we foresee that the steady influx of immigration will result in large ethnic communities. Aged baby boomers (75+) will also need to be considered, as they will constitute a large share of the population. Generation-X (now 40+) and Post Generation-Xers will be the population most adaptable to technological innovations and changes. There will be a convergence of financial institutions and technology. This will be accomplished by financial institutions developing their own software. Types of technologies will include smart cards, where all banking information is contained in a microchip on the card, and consumer databases. Since financial institutions will be the driving force behind developing digital cash and their systems, the control of cash will be in the corporate sector. This may even result in different networks developing different forms of e-cash. With the decrease in government power, organizations may be the only source of financing for social housing or other programs like daycare, even education and health..." Scenario 2. Decentralized Power: Crypto-Anarchy: (driving forces: decreasing regulation and increasing power of the individual - corporations cater to individual consumer software needs; technology gears toward personal information management). "This is a future of Decentralized power, in which the government disappears on a federal level or is so weakened that it becomes nothing more than a figurehead. Regulation is minimized and the individual has power and freedom of choice. Individuality thrives as social and political interest become unimportant. There is a widening divergence between the information have and have-nots, increasingly marginalizing the "lo-tecks" in society. Digital cash is the predominant means of exchange. Due to the anonymous and untraceable nature of digital cash it has become impossible to track the income of individuals. Income tax has been abolished in favour of taxes at point of sale and on physical assets. Large corporations have disintegrated and the commercial sector is dominated by highly competitive, specialized companies who cater to the needs of the individual, supplying primarily innovative technology and software. With the disintegration of large corporations and the fragmentation of financial institutions, decentralized cash systems threaten to obsolesce financial institutions completely…" Scenario 3. "Third-Sector Ecotopia": (driving forces: community leadership, community power). " Issues concerning the collective health of the public take precedence. Environmental concerns and a decline in work available from manufacturing due to high technology combine to create an economy where the non-profit sector will supply the majority of social services. Federal governments become less responsive to the needs of individual communities; decision-making and social services are decentralized to smaller regional/provincial governments and local councils; electronic networks facilitate some form of more participatory democracy. Businesses are more accountable for their social and environmental role in society: manufacturing, construction, distribution of consumer goods with a minimum of environmental impact. Basic level of computer network (Internet) access is maintained through corporate and tax subsidy as a public resource. Public information kiosks; emphasis on technology in education…. Need will arise for a service-based workforce experienced with public relations, to develop flexible, responsive services to community members…"
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The Museum of Nanotechnology. Charles Platt, WIRED News, 1998 <www.wired.com>

Tiny and Great Leaps for the Human Race. The Units of Nanotech: 1 millimeter = 1/1000th of a meter : 1 micron = 1/1000th of a millimeter : 1 nanometer = 1/1000th of a micron. Charles Platt Scenario 1. Biological Ram Chip: "Developed in 2005 by BioDevices Inc., based in Mountain View, California, this chip was the first commercial use of an organic compound for data storage. "Biological sludge" consisting of a crystalline protein was chemically tailored to bond onto access points on a RAM chip. The sludge accreted in 10,000 additional layers, and each layer stored almost as much data as the original chip. The finished product was able to hold 10 Gbyte." Scenario 2. Nanoscale Braille: " In 2005, a Dutch-U consortium perfected the application of "bumps" of atoms on an ultrasmooth surface to represent bits of data - creating a revolutionary new storage medium. A massive array of 10,000 tiny, independent mechanical probes scanned the surface, reading data and moving it from one location to another. Each bump of data was about 30 nanometers wide, allowing a single square centimeter to store around 10 Gbytes." Scenario 3. DNA Data Storage: "In 2010, Living Logic Systems of Minneapolis marketed the first cost-effective DNA memory device (a simulation is shown here). Using a technique pioneered 15 years earlier at New York University to force the normally single-stranded DNA molecule to branch into six strands, Living Logic created crystalline DNA: huge arrays of cube-shaped cells, linked like a vast jungle gym. Clusters of copper atoms were attached to each cell in the array, and data was stored by attaching electrons to the clusters. The final result? A chunk of branched DNA about the size of a sugar cube that could store almost 10 petabytes (10 million billion bytes) of information." Scenario 4. Asteroid Terraforming: "The asteroid shown at left is being reworked by preprogramme nanoscale robots to create a fully equipped space habitat for human colonists. The robots were sent out on a conventional rocket that crash-landed on the preselected asteroid. After the nanosystems used indigenous carbon and metal ores to make billions of copies of themselves, they set to work converting the asteroid. When human colonists arrive, they will find comfortable residences ready and waiting. Since this initiative began in 2050, almost 5 million people have relocated to the asteroid belt. Already we are seeing a new generation that has never experienced life on Earth." The article continues with three more scenarios: Anti-Cancer Nanomachine; Space Beanstalk; and Multifunction Moleculor Manipulator.
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Y2K Survival Guide: Protect Your Family From the Coming Crisis. The Y2K site: http://www.ytwok.com.

"Apply a little imagination and thought to the perils of Y2K and set them against a backdrop of today's news events. The result is The New York Journal, January 4, 2000" Scenario 1. State of Emergency and Martial Law Declared in December, 1999: There is strong evidence for the fact that the current administration is planning to use MARTIAL LAW to protect the public from the uncertainties of Y2K, or cyber-terrorism as they refer to it. That will be the subject of an upcoming "Special Report". It is entirely reasonable that the government will act to minimize the disorder and chaos of January 1, 2000 by invoking controls prior to the date in question. From a strictly pragmatic viewpoint, it is easier to maintain the control through martial law by installing it prior to the disruption of critical infrastructures than it would be to employ it to control the chaos after the disruption. Scenario 2. Travel Restricted Gatherings Prohibited, Gun Sales Frozen: Constitutional rights are not the issue here, as martial law essentially sets aside Constitutional guarantees for the citizens. If the impending Y2K crisis is deemed a sufficient threat to authorize martial law the it is reasonable to assume that aspects of martial law would focus on areas of perceived danger to the public's safety. Public gatherings would need to be controlled to prevent food riots, looting and mass demonstrations. Travel would be restricted to keep workers near their jobs and curfews would attempt to keep looters off the streets at night. To prevent 'civilian vigilantes', the unarmed would be prevented from purchasing weapons and all ammunition sales would be suspended. Scenario 3. Early Death Toll Reaches 22,000 Plus: While this early death toll attributed to Y2K may seem ridiculously high, it represents less than one tenth of one percent (.1%) of the American population. Consider all the possible sources of early fatalities; Air plane crashes, train crashes, automobile collisions, looters being shot by store owners and the possible victims of violent crimes in cities with no electricity, no phones and sporadic police protection. Also consider the deaths at the hands of rival inner-city gangs as they fight for control of larger areas or the deaths which may result from the battles between martial law troops and street gangs. Finally there are the individuals who will be hospitalized during the crisis and dependent upon life-supporting equipment, much of which is not Y2K compliant. One tenth of one percent may not be high after all.
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Y2K Problem: Social Chaos or Social Transformation? John L. Peterson, Maragaret Wheatley, Myron Kellner-Rogers: The Futurist, October 1998

The authors adopt a Y2K Scenarios Matrix by David S. Isenberg entitled "Facing the Year 2000" in which four scenarios are identified: 1) Official Future. Isolated technological failures elicit no response from society. Nothing happens. 2) A whiff of Smoke. Isolated failures cause panic. People overreact. 3) Human Spirit. Widespread technical breakdowns bring people together in spirit of communitarianism. Individuals learn that the best survival strategy is cooperation. 4) Millennial Apocalypse. Large-scale technical failures and social breakdown lead to chaos. Government tightens grip in a "Techno-Fascist" future.
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Using the Internet in the year 2005; Three Scenarios Storm. A. King , Arachnet. Electronic Journal on Virtual Culture v3n01 (February 5, 1995).

Scenario 1. A Family Get Together: Family watching a six foot, square wall panel with a screen split into 9 equal squares watching the New Year's celebrations around the world. This is controlled by a wireless control panel with 8 inch flat screen display and full keyboard with joystick and mouse ball built in. "The room was filled with the reflected patterns of thousands of colored beams dancing around the Eiffel Tower." The show is interrupted with a beep sound emanating from the wall mounted speakers, for an incoming video call. "On screen," shouted Storm, in his best imitation of Captain Picard. Grandparents appear on screen and are "larger than life." Scenario 2. Online Therapy: A depressed loner wanders the streets and comes upon a church: "Open 24 hours, online counseling. If you need to talk, come in." Entering a small anteroom, the loner activates a monitor by pressing "start" displayed in its center and sat down facing the mounted camera. From San Francisco, the loner is in visual contact with a professional therapist (volunteer) from Stockholm, who views archived medical records. Scenario 3. The World Plays Together: The World's first invitational chess tournament transmitted from China, the final match. A reporter for the German online live Internet feed typed comments about how the tournament had been organized and how it had all come down to this one match. He told his audience that over 5000 viewers, some of whom had waited days, had completely used up the available video feeds. It was estimated that the text-based live reports were being viewed in real time by nearly a million people, one of the largest audiences for a single event that the Internet had seen so far. He continued his narrative, in-between analysis of the moves in progress, with a description of how this largest ever tournament had been organized. Using the vast interconnections of the Internet, tournament organizers had registered over 90,000 players world wide.
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Industrial R&D in 2008. Charles F. Larson Research Technology Management, Vol. 41, Num. 6, 1998

Examines five scenarios for driving accelerating change over the next 10 years, and finds information technology and globalization the most prominent drivers Larson argues that the most likely scenario concerning Research and Development in the year 2008 will be a combination of five scenarios; the blending of these scenarios leads him to the creation of a scenario titled, "The Laboratory of 2008."
Five scenarios were developed for potential changes in Research and Development management, technology, and innovation due to evolving drivers over the next 10 years. Scenario 1. Cyclical Change: This scenarios assumes that the current paradigm in R&D-to control costs and to do more with less-is a cyclical change that has occurred before. Also, this scenario built on the assumption that different industries were in different phases of the cycle. Therefore, it was recommended that the early indicator would be those business sectors which lead the cycles. Scenaro 2. Globalized R&D: The prediction in this scenario is that as companies continue to become more global, the R&D function will gradually spread throughout the world. Teams will function through electronic networks and management of the R&D function could be directed from remote locations. Scenario 3. R&D Through Partnerships: Assuming that technology will become increasingly complex and more expensive to develop, this scenario states that many companies will choose to maintain their key competencies only in selected core technologies and obtain additional capabilities through partnerships and alliances with other companies, government laboratories, universities, and contract R&D organizations. Various R&D support services will be integrated with other corporate or business-unit functions, resulting in some R&D leaders managing virtual laboratories. Scenario 4. Innovation Function Absorbs R&D: This scenario envisions that the future focus of most firms will continue to be on revenue growth through creation of new products, processes, or services. Also, through the development of new markets. In response to this emphasis on innovation, the R&D leaders will become business managers as well. Scenario 5: Networking Counts: In this scenario, it is assumed that networking with peers through organizations will become more important. Changing conditions in the R&D environment will be accommodated so long as opportunities exist for sharing best practices through a growing number of electronic techniques. This will be blended with the traditional, face-to-face gatherings on specific topics. All R&D managers are becoming "information managers," and all companies are now "information machines," regardless of what products they sell. This scenario maintains that the only difference is in the way that the managers and companies gather, assimilate, and apply that information. "The paradigm is that R&D must either network or not work." Larson's Scenario: The Laboratory of 2008: People in the industrial R7D laboratory of 2008 will be more risk-taking and business-oriented, with skills that are constantly being upgraded. Technical intelligence will be fully integrated throughout the firm and far more comprehensive than today. Technical work will be more efficient and effective, utilizing a wide variety of outside resources. Flexible organizational structures and enterprise integration will capitalize on a new era of creativity for growth and competitiveness. Leadership and skillful management will be critical elements of these evolving processes.
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Emerging Designs for Work, Living, and Learning in the Communicative Age. Tony Stevenson and June Lennie. Futures Research Quarterly, Fall 1995.

Recent social, political, and cultural changes indicate that Australia and the rest of the world could be at a crucial turning point where we need to think carefully about out choice of future directions. Futurists from diverse cultures, such as Henderson and Yamaguchi and Niwa argue that we must make a radical effort to pursue new visions, strategies, and metaphores suitable for a more desirable future at a time when communication and information technologies (C & IT) are assuming more importance. This type of thinking is leading to the emergence of creative new designs for work, living, and learning including participatory forms of democracy, sustainable economic development, non-hierarchical organizational structures, and interactive education and training that take gender, equity and cultural issues into consideration and use C&IT to meet a diversity of needs and values.
A framework based on three alternative future scenarios is proposed, that allows the reader to consider the consequences of emerging social, economic, and political structures following certain pathways. The scenarios are: The Communicative Age, The Conventional Age, and the Artificial Age. The reader is encouraged to check the original reference for more detailed version of the scenarios. " It is unlikely that scenarios other than the Conventional or the Communicative Age will be entirely clear within another generation, in comparision to the Artificial Age which relies more on radical new technologies that are not yet well developed. All three are the product of our white Western perspective and may favour possibilities for developed countries, such as Australia, although they could well emerge, and indeed have the seeds for emergence, in developing countries. While the Conventional Age sees the future as largely more of the same, the alternative Communicative Age is envisioned from foresight and assumes that emerging social designs which have broken free from the dominator model will gain wider acceptance than at present. It also assumes a world more adept than at present at dealing with complexity, incoherence and uncertainty. By contrast, in the Artificial Age, the future is seen as a quantum leap. High-tech examples of artificial living are hearing devices and genetically engineered plants, which low-tech examples are air conditioning and nutrition through vitamin pills. While many of these developments are useful to society, we believe that the image of a dehumanized world which could eventuate in the Artificial Age should be rejected. The Conventional Age emphasizes technological determinism, rationalist, individualism, and conflict while the Communicative Age emphasizes holistic, human-centered activities and community development through the negotiation of meaning, critical reflection, cooperation, and individuation. A world dominated by science and technology would tend to become increasingly dehumanized and spiritual values, as we know them, could be threatened or eventually disappear. New forms of conflict could also emerge. Conventional Age people would see new technologies as extensions of existing technologies rather than a transformation, which Communicative Age people would use new technologies to actively transform society by facilitating participate democracy and the global sharing of information and resources. In the Artificial Age the strong dominator model, combined with developments in science and high-technology, would result in a transformation of nature.
In terms of gender relations, the current patriarchal structure of society would continue in the Conventional Age, while feminist perspectives would gain widespread legitimacy of gender relations towards the equal participation by women and men, acknowledging their diversity and difference, in every aspect of public and private life. World population would be controlled through free access by women to contraception and other life choices. In the Artificial Age women could become redundant in their role as child-bearers as genetic engineering takes over reproduction and potentially facilitates control of population growth.
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Civilizing Cyberspace - Policy, Power, and the Information Superhighway. Stephen E. Miller. NY: ACM Press & Reading MA: Addison-Wesley, 1996.

"Cyberspace" is a term invented by novelist William Gibson to describe an electronic environment in which data and programs can be seen and manipulated as if they had physical attributes--shape, color, motion. It represents the transformation of communications technology from a connection between locations into a location of its own. People are able to plug themselves into cyberspace, and move around and interact with the data "objects." As a concept developed by Gibson, cyberspace is a "virtual reality" that is full of images, some of which exist nowhere else but in electronic form and some of which are symbolic representations of the physical world." Does Gibson’s vision represent our future? Though technology helps shape our choices, the future is a human creation. This article provides two scenarios descriptive of typical life in future cyberspace. Scenario 1. Daybreak. A typical day at the office when going to the office, which is only three days a week, because the rest of the week is spent working at home. The car is equipped with route selector warnings and "news" buttons on the car’s digital sound system. Once in the office, computers scan and retrieve documents, charts, and articles. Later, a video conference connects six people and the discussion centers on a document displayed in the "shared images" space on all the participant’s screens. The computer enables contact with daughters and sons directly in the school classroom as the screen comes on and the teacher comes over to respond. Take-out restaurants located near home are contacted with online orders in advance. Scenario 2. Nightfall. A temporary work assignment at night. Scenario describes the company monitors, workstations, tracking systems, and huge databases.
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Lewis offers a normative scenario of Near Utopia by conjuring up a world where trees, not oil wells, produce fuel, where rural villages are the major source of wealth, and former slum dwellers are hooked up to the Internet. In his vision, new technologies pointed in the right direction creates a poverty-free utopia, leapfrogging the slow efforts of the World Bank to promote development. A startling aspect of Dyson’s scenario is the way rural villages in Britain, Germany and France abandoned agriculture to become residential centers for the middle class and sites for business and light industry. These villages became sources of wealth because "they had what wealthy people seek, peace and security and beauty." Asking the question, "how can a God forsaken Mexican village become a source of wealth?" The answer: "The sun, the genome and the Internet can work together to bring wealth to the villages of Mexico just as the older technology of electricity and automobiles brought wealth to the villages of England." Technology guided by ethics has the power to help billions of poor people all over the earth. The obstacle is not that science cannot achieve this, but that technological research is heading in the wrong direction, concentrating on "making toys for the rich." Ethical values as well as the desire for profit can drive technological research just as technology sometimes influences human values The "holy trinity" of solar energy, genetics and computers gets a strong ethical push" so that all three technologies work in tandem to create "a socially just world."
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Top Futuristic Scenarios for Information Services. Earl C. Joseph, Futurist, Walden University Professor, and ASI President.

Libraries are undergoing a re-appraisal of what their role and future is in a Cyberspace age of electronic media on the Internet. Some are anticipating that they may not even be called a library, rather, they may become an information and knowledge services provider. Possible scenarios for near term futures are: Scenario 1. Both & More: "Libraries evolve their traditional "books on shelves" scenario and add many of the following services (scenarios); Scenario 2.) Books on Demand: Books are downloaded on demand over the Internet instead of shelving. Scenario 3.) Electronic Book. a.) Publisher creates books in computer reader form (on disk, CD ROM, and/or allow downloading, b.) Secondary publishers produce electronic book information in specialized forms (abstracted, integrated with other information, etc., c.) A portable electronic book (computer or dumb terminal like) is developed to compete with books-on-paper that accepts disks, CD ROMS, and or downloaded books from the Internet/WEBD). Library customer comes to the library or accesses it remotely via the Internet/Web to obtain book in electronic data form which has a build in timer that deletes it from the library customer’s electronic book or computer after two weeks or so -- eliminates the hassle or returning books. Scenario 4.) Global Access. Various specialty libraries becomes a leader in their specialty available over the Web. Scenario 5.) Information & Knowledge Warehouse. Various specialty libraries become a leader in warehousing information from a variety of sources relative to their specialty area for on-line Internet access. Scenario 6.) Information Discoursing with Business Personalities. Various specialty libraries become a leader as a service provider in their specialty area fo that clients can converse with on-line stored information from books and global links to other information sources; system automated using text-to-voice-to-text SW. Scenario 7.) Discourse With Books, Authors, & Other Personalities. Various specialty libraries become a leader as a service provider so that clients can converse with on-line stored books or key personalities using text-to-voice and voice-to-text software. Scenario 8.) Subject Reporter. Various specialty libraries become a leader as an information service provider in their specialty area for supplying timely and customized business reports; production automated using search engines and report generator software. Scenario 9.) Book Summaries. Various specialty libraries become a leader as a service provider of customized business book summaries in their specialty area. Scenario 10.) Information Mining. Various specialty libraries become a leader as a service provider for "mining" information in their specialty area from global data/information warehouses for clients. Scenario 11.) Automated Information Consulting. Various specialty libraries become a leader of an automated consulting service using a number of the scenarios outlined herein for business, CEOs, managers, academics, professionals, reporters, etc. Scenario 12.) Software Developer. Various specialty libraries become a leader in developing software (intelligent agents, apples, search engines, information browsers, utilities, etc. ) useful to clients for obtaining and manipulating information in their specialty area information from global on-line sources. Scenario 13.) Multi-Media Producer. Various specialty libraries become a leader as a service provider of multi-media productions using the above tools and services for producing multi-media visual information in a variety of forms -- videos, ads, sit cons, movies, 3-D virtual reality, animated and interactive, -- using text-to-image/videos-to-text software."
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Helping Clients Manage Uncertainty - . Are Today’s CEOs Prescient Technology Strategists or just Misguided Executives? Outlook Magazine, The Futures Group, Glastonbury, CT. October 1996.

What does the future of information technology mean? The Futures Group, in a set of information technology scenarios, helps guide this question. Scenario 1. " Its 2005. The period of chaotic innovation and rapid obsolescence that turned the world of PCs, the Internet, and telephone and cable companies upside down and inside out has given way to a new world ruled by a handful of info-conglomerates. The competition is so relentless than in 2003, Microsoft/AT&T CEO Bill Gates was overheard pining for "the good old days." Directors respond instantly to negative events by sacking unproductive management, including the CEO.
The growth of the information industries beginning in the early ‘90s paralleled that of the airlines starting in the ‘50s. Telecom/cable/info-highway firms operated in a high fixed-cost, low-margin industry, but eventually underwent a technological revolution that expanded their traditional markets. Like the airlines, they were rapidly deregulated while the industry constantly was invaded by new companies trying to pilfer the profits of more established firms. Like the airlines, they were referred to as carriers and engaged in ferocious fare wars that left few survivors.
Gradually, an info-universe has emerged, dominated by a few big players. However, barriers to entry--especially in businesses such as software--are low, and entrepreneurs continue to burst upon the scene and shake things up. Rate wars erupt regularly. Asset ownership is unstable.
Clearly, the real winner in this world is not big business. It’s the consumer. Telecom--rates plummeted, leaving companies such as Intel and Compaq hanging in the wind, while both individual and corporate customers reap the benefits of cut-rate prices. In addition, because so many people and companies are hooked into the info-bazaar, there’s much more direct selling between manufacturers/providers and end users of products and services. This is bad news for traditional retailers such as Sears and Wal-Mart, and good news for distribution companies such as Federal Express, RPS, and UPS."
Scenario 2. "The much-ballyhood Internet has turned into one big commercial aimed at kids under the age of 13, dooming the vision of a New-based business world. When the novelty of the Web site wore off--and it did not take long for anyone poring over electronic versions of annual reports and company newsletters to lose interest -- big business users began to drop out. Security problems drove most financial and communications activity into proprietary Intranets. Hiding in their information fortresses, CEOs hoarded data. The lack of trust and information exchange slowed growth. Isolation made companies less responsible to customers.
Meanwhile, the information industries, collectively, came to resemble the rag trade. Innovation was rapid but largely unprotected. Everybody copied everyone else. The Chinese, with their "unique" approach to the hardware and software industries, flooded the world market. Ex-President Al Gore (elected in 2000, rejected in 2004) never recovered politically from his role of Internet champion in an era of electronic commerce gone haywire.
The promising medium soon was reduced to the lowest common denominator and controlled by advertisers, who mastered interactive--but fragmented--Net-selling. Calvin Klein finally has found the idea venue for his in-your-face, peek-a-boo ads, creating the image of a lunatic Cyber garage sale. Special-interest groups such as Consumer Reports have become daily providers of best buys. Agile sellers can exploit this marketplace, but the automotive and airline industries have lost touch with the mass market. The Internet allows for packaging blocks of airline tickets, so the major carriers got out of the distribution business and now concentrate on flying passengers."
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At Home With High Technology (Special Issue), IEEE Spectrum, 22:5, May 1985. A technology scenario, late 20th to 21st century.

Article on high-tech home systems and a scenario on what could happen if the systems do not perform as they should. Tongue-cheek account of high-tech devices malfunctioning in the home, including an automatic sprinkler system, the VCR, remote-controlled appliances, and a built-in security system, among others.
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The Possible Futures of Multimedia. Anderson Consulting, 1994. http://www.ac.com/tag/execsum.html. Four scenarios of multimedia to the 21st century.

Anderson Consulting tackles the uncertainties of multimedia technologies using scenario based planning. The scenario development process involved a cross-section of expertise from both inside and outside the firm. The work revealed two major uncertainties or driving forces that is believed to have significant influence on how multimedia technology will impact the future: the quality of demand and the state of the economy. Scenario 1.) Virtual World: is a richly interactive future - a future in which business and consumer users don’t so much choose as co-create the products and services they want. So important is multimedia in Virtual World that it begins to blue the boundaries between "business" and "consumer" environments, and contributes to a fundamental restructuring of industry. Scenario 2.) Bizworld: multimedia plays out differently in the consumer and business environments. In the consumer market, it is simply a tool to navigate through many choices. In the business market, applications are more robust and provide businesses a means of creating a more productive work environment. Scenario 3.) Upstairs Downstairs: is a future that plays out the polarization of wealth in the developed nations as well as a split of the population across the acceptance of technology lines. This results in a scenario of haves and have-nots. It combines features of Virtual World (haves) and Slow Boat (have-nots). Scenario 4.) Slow Boat: is a blocked scenario - a scenario in which the big news is no real news. Slow Boat is a world in which users accept limited choice as the primary value-added, and in which the economy stays slow. Multimedia is the revolution that never came.
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How Digital Uses Scenarios to Rethink the Present. Lucia Luce Quinn and David H. Mason Planning Review November/December 1994. Five scenarios utilized as business models.

This case study of scenario planning at Digital shows how top management uses the process for testing, probing, pushing, and provoking strategic thinking about the future. Middle managers find the scenarios helpful for modeling their current businesses. Mason: "Most people believe that scenarios are always about the future, but this is not so. Scenarios can offer different perspectives on what is happening today can stimulate productive discussions. The scenarios we developed at Digital were actually business models, not long-term visions." Interesting alternative view of scenarios. Quinn goes on to described the models. Model A: addressed commodity businesses. Model B: concerned an architectural franchise or technology-driven business. Model C: was a networking and utilities business at a time beyond the initial stage of convergence. (Convergence is the concept that data transmissions, cable, phone, software, and computers will become a unified system). Model D: was the systems-integration business. Regardless of the product or service, such businesses provide value added solutions, mainly through their people skills.
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Rethinking Nuclear Power. Richard K. Lester, Scientific American, 254:3, March 1986, 31-39. Scenarios of nuclear power to 2000.

An excellent and highly technical overview of nuclear power. At the end of the article, two scenarios are presented. "The range of possible futures for nuclear power in the U.S. thus comes down to three broad possibilities. One is a return to Light-Water Reactor (LWR) technology in an improved form, perhaps in as little as a decade. The revival of the technology would take place within a more streamlined industry, with fewer and more competent organizations operating in a stabler regulatory climate. Foreign LWR suppliers, having enjoyed livelier domestic markets in the meantime, would introduce many of the improvements and might figure commercially in the U.S. revival. In the second scenario conventional LWR’s would fail to regain commercial acceptance, but after some years one or more second-generation reactor technologies conceived for small size, passive safety and centralized, modular fabrication would reestablish nuclear power as a major source of electricity for the next century. At the moment it is not possible to say which of the first two scenarios represents the likelier outcome, and indeed there is no need to do so. Efforts to reform existing institutions and to improve conventional technologies should go forward along with explorations of radical new technologies. Neglecting either approach will make all the likelier the third outcome: the disappearance of nuclear power as an option for the future. That is a loss the nation could ill afford."
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Arthur C. Clark’s July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st Century. Arthur C. Clarke (Sri Lanka). An Omni Book. NY: Macmillan, Nov. 1986/281p. A technology scenario to 2019.

Direct communication between the mind and computers is the dominant element of this scenario about work in the 21st century. A multitude of computer-based assistants do most of the routine tasks-filing, scheduling, bookkeeping and the like while humans take care of problems that aren’t easily anticipated, making complex decisions, and exercising their creativity. At the heart of this scenario is a set of technologies that includes artificial intelligence (AI), intelligence amplifiers, and mind-computer linkages.
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Bulletin From the Future Max Frankel. New York Times Magazine, September 29, 1996. A computer scenario to the year 2096.

Scenario of a drastic event in which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announces that an epidemic is spreading on all continents, clogging channels of communication, including live links to human nervous systems (in this scenario, miniature or nano-tech computers are inside human beings). The agency advises that a computer virus has been unleashed, which appears to have incapacitated key links in the Universal Network and destroyed financial records across the earth. The most severe damage occurs in advanced nations, with the United States standing to lose nearly a century’s records. The entire world goes back to the use of paper, and the bulletin announces, for example, that the "USA Times-Journal will publish limited paper bulletins containing Government advisories and other crisis news, but without its customary interactive features, games, and advertisements. The company is reopening printing plants that were mothballed a decade ago when the last subscribers switched to compuphones that receive customized newspapers. " The CDC is working urgently to develop an effective vaccine that will repel the guilty virus and permit at least limited resumption of computer management and an early restoration of public services." Culprit suspected to be from Asia.
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Toward the Electronic Book. Nathanial Lande, Publishers Weekly, 20 Sept 1991, 28-30. Smartcards scenario to the 21st century.

This article sketches a "scenario" of users inserting re-usable Smartcards into vending machines called Bookbanks. These smartcards are about the same size as credit cards, and Bookbanks can be found in bookstores and libraries around the world. These digitized cards have a 200-megabyte capacity that can contain an average of 200 books. They can be inserted into a Bookmark player with a paper size screen. The Bookmark player would have such features as buttons to turn pages, and an adapter for CD-Rom disc and video play. This is technologically feasible, and "although the electronic book will not soon replace the pleasures of book covers and pages to turn, in time it will become standard as the Nintendo generation, a generation much more familiar with computer visuals than with print, catches on." Publishers will benefit because problems of distribution, printing, and storage will be eliminated and there are enormous environmental advantages in keeping millions of acres of forest out of the paper pulp mills. Potential solution to deforestation, using technology and market forces.
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The Information Millennium: Alternative Futures. Clement Bezold and Robert L. Olson, Washington: Information Industry Association. Information scenarios to 2000.

A study of the future of information conducted by the Institute for Alternative Futures for the Information Industry Association, poses four scenarios driven by advanced information technologies. Scenario 1.) The High-Tech Information Society: a booming economy, traditional American "achievement values," and advanced information technologies drive the high-tech information society. The information industry grows at twice the rate of the GNP. Information products and services are individually tailored. Privacy is not a problem as a result of both new encryption technologies and public acceptance of less privacy. Government plays a limited role in the information marketplace and there is a heavy reliance on the marketplace to resolve problems relating to the information society. Scenario 2.) The Creative Society: rapid technological progress and a dynamic economy drive this scenario. However, the information revolution and a profound change in values result in more expressive, socially focused actions. Personal growth and social progress are as important as financial success. Privacy is rigorously protected. Government interference in the information marketplace is very limited. Scenario 3.) Things Bog Down: slow technological progress, significant failures in artificial intelligence technologies, and poor economic conditions result in slow growth of the information society. Privacy becomes a major concern and government takes a major role in regulating the information economy. A gap between the "knows" and "know-nots" develops. Scenario 4.) 1984 and Beyond: tough economic times, an AIDS epidemic, and terrorism lead to public acceptance of greater government surveillance and control. Privacy is swept away as government and corporate access to sensitive personal information becomes commonplace.
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A scenario on the impact of ISDN (integrated services digital networks) on interdependence - 30 year scenario of development to 2016, culminating in an emerging "world brain" concept of managing complexity, and a possible series of "information wars" or information terrorism.
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Thirty planners, policy makers, and thinkers from a diverse group of organizations came together in 1994 to participate in a two-day conference to debate alternative scenarios for the evolution of the US Information Superhighway. Key Findings: There is a great deal of risk associated with all of the different models for infrastructure build out. There are so many competing approaches that all can’t possibly be successful. Five scenarios were presented and plausibly linked to the future of the information superhighway. Scenario 1.) ClubInfo: alliances of carrier, content provider, and ancillary companies are formed to rapidly build an infrastructure and do the systems required to deliver information services. Although each alliance is comprised of many independent companies, a common brand name is used for alliance services. Scenario 2.) Welcome to the Carnival: rapid advances in technology drive an explosion in the number of communications and content services and corresponding growth in the number of service providers. Information and edutainment services spring up on a variety of networks, which include plain old telephone service (POTS), cellular, cable television (CATV), database services (DBS), etc. Scenario 3.) The Information Empowered Society: technology takes a back seat to national interests. The construction of a national infrastructure creates a competitive advantage for the United States in a global economy. Government sponsorship and stewardship ensures that a network linking schools, libraries, hospitals, homes, and businesses is not trivalized by the commercial sector. Government must be a strong advocate to ensure that the national network provides value to the nation. Scenario 4.) Content is King: a network bandwidth is now as much a commodity as personal computers. Network build out provides access to competing networks from most American homes and businesses, leaving carriers with more capacity than content. Competition among carriers has driven down prices. Scenario 5.) Least Time to $: a world in which tight alliances between industry players allow a rapid build out of the infrastructure and rapid deployment of applications that yield revenue. The risks in building an interactive broadband network are huge—the best strategy is to spread the risk among many industry players.
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The development of technology for building molecule-sized machines (nanotechnology) results in a host of changes ranging from health to climate. In a series of mini scenarios scattered throughout this book, the impacts of nanotechnology are illustrated. Among the developments: nanomedicine - microscopic devices injected into the body that will hunt down and kill cancers, remove injured or diseased tissue, repair arthritic joints, and eliminate wrinkles and unwanted hair. Nanocomputers - computing devices the size of a sugar cube that can outperform any supercomputer currently available and storage devices that let you carry a library containing all the information in the world’s libraries in your pocket. Nanoengineering - molecular devices that can be programmed to build flawless cars, bridges, rockets, or whatever you want.
Nanoenvironmentalism - microscoping robots that clean toxic substances from the environment. This book also looks at some of the threats that uncontrolled access to nanotechnology would present.
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Nanotechnology - tiny and great leaps for the human race. In the future, nanotechnology is used for everything from DNA Data Storage to Anti-cancer nanomachines to nanoscale braille. A more interesting and grand use of nanotechnology in 2050 is asteroid terraforming. The museum aptly describes it: "Asteroid Terraforming - the asteroid (imaged in the scenario) is being reworked by preprogrammed nanoscale robots to create a fully equipped space habitat for human colonists. The robots were sent out on a conventional rocket that crash-landed on the preselected asteroid. After the nanosystems used indigenous carbon and metal ores to make billions of copies of themselves, they set to work converting the asteroid. When human colonists arrive, they will find comfortable residences ready and waiting. Since this initiative began in 2050, almost 5 million people have relocated to the asteroid belt. Already we are seeing a new generation that has never experienced life on Earth."
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The Computer for the 21st Century. Mark Weiser, Scientific American, 265:3, Sept. 1991, 94-104. Computer technology scenario to the 21st century.

Normative scenario of the future of computer technology. Describes a future where computers have become invisible and ubiquitous. Advantages: technology will become faster, easier to use, more personal, and will penetrate all social strata. Weiser states that, most importantly, ubiquitous computing will help to overcome information overload.
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Communicating in a Shrinking World, Tony Stevenson, Papers de Prospectiva, Centre UNESCO de Catalunya, Mallorca 285, 08037 Barcelona). Communications scenarios to 2020.

Four scenarios of the year 2020 suggest the possibilities of communications technologies. Scenario 1.) Gold Lame and Sackcloth: in this world, the nation-state is slowly replaced by elite global networks; the have have-not gap continues to widen; more regions are marginalized while culture is globalized with English language more widely used and life becomes more automated while the environment becomes more artificial. Scenario 2.) Drab Uniform: in this world, the confusion of communications and networks encourage global centralizing authorities. Global uniformity, efficiency, and productivity are supreme values. Concentrated networks of business and self-serving interests are enabled by communications and information technologies, thus replacing nation-states. Scenario 3.) Rich Tapestry: in this world, the wealth and information gap begins to close, a rich tapestry of diversity is valued most, the nation-state is largely replaced by a network of communities largely self-organizing at local and regional levels; several languages emerge in international use (especially Chinese). Scenario 4) Bazaar: some slight closing of the rich/poor gap, a variety of fabrics and a mosaic of networks coexist with patches of centralized authority; ownership of networks fairly widespread, great variation among regions.
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A planning group for MCI assessed scenarios of the future of telecommunications. Trends that impact the scenarios include: bandwidth capacity and demand, government regulation, acceptance of digital commerce, convergence of communications and content technologies, revenue source – consumers versus advertisers, mergers and acquisitions, wire versus wireless transmission. Critical uncertainties include the convergence of communications and content technologies and revenue sources – consumers versus advertisers Scenario: 1.) Waldman’s World: in this world there is little convergence of communications and content technologies. Consumers are the primary source of revenue. There is a clear distinction between local, long distance and wireless (cellular) services and service providers; the Internet is a commercial flop ( its main purpose is to repackage existing products); users pay for basic access to the telecommunications system and additional charges for useage and extra services. Scenario 2.) Bierman’s Basement: like the previous scenario, there is little convergence of communications and content technologies. However, advertisers are the primary source of revenue. In this world, the following occur: there is a clear distinction between telecommunications and cable TV services; internet commerce thrives and is used for designed products, there is a dramatic reduction in the number of telecommunications carriers; telecommunications companies battle cable companies for revenue. Scenario 3.) The Kampas Construct: in this scenario, there is significant convergence of communications and content technologies and consumers are the primary source of revenue. Telecommunications infrastructures merge and become "universal service providers "(USPs).
USPs provide wire/wireless communications, networking, and home entertainment; consumers pay for commercial-free entertainment; traditional TV advertising and broadcast networks become endangered. Scenario 4.)The Stayman Situation: like scenario three, there is a significant convergence of communications and content technologies. However, advertisers consumers are the primary source of revenue. Advertisements combine with entertainment as major revenue sources; demographic information and targeted ads sell for a premium; telephone service is cheap; partnering with or acquisition of market research and ratings companies occurs.
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The Internet is part of the information revolution, pointing 20th century society into a new direction. What does this mean for Africa and for other developing areas? Can the Internet enhance development? Or will it only broaden the gap between the "have" and "have-nots"? Two scenarios of Africa and the information revolution are described: Scenario 1.) Africa takes advantage of the information revolution and leap frogs into a new age of development. This describes the story of Internet enhanced development and closes the have-have not gap by making more people educated and competitive. Scenario 2.) Africa misses the opportunity and is left behind, totally isolated and is far behind the developed world. The biggest problem with the Internet in this world, is access and literacy. People can’t use the Internet if they can’t read, nor can they if they can’t afford to pay for the services.
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This Office of Technology Assessment report (now formally the OTA), "makes an imaginative, well-analyzed, documented and reasoned argument for the growing impulse that rapid technological change is bringing to the US and other modern industrial economies. It is very rich in data on nearly all aspects of American life and has thoroughly examined a great variety of possibilities in depth. The mode of analysis is genuinely inventive as it explores the networks of consumption and production and how technology could reconfigure those networks." Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network. This book projects four scenarios, with clear logic and two steady growth paths of 3% or 1.5% for the next two decades. The authors came to the 'surprising' conclusion that despite massive technical change there is very little structural and fundamental changes in U.S. society that results from the impacts of technology.
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Politics in a Parallel Universe: Is There a Future for Cyberdemocracy? Michael R. Odgen, Futures, 26:7, Sept. 1994, 713-729. Scenarios of cyberdemocracy to 21st century.

For years cyberspace has received little interference from government or business. However, with government, commercial, and public attention turning towards the global Internet and the proposed U.S. national information infrastructure, this is all about to change. Two possible scenarios. Scenario 1.) Cyberdemocracy (or Jeffersonian Networks): "founded on the primacy of individual liberty and committed to pluralism, diversity, and community; largely free of metered services and restricted access; the best "schools" and teachers available to all students; access to government information becomes a right of all "netizens" in the facilitation of their informed participation in the democratic process." Scenario 2.) Virtual Mercantilism (or Digital Gold Rush): "the private sector builds the information highway and controls terms of access, use, and content. This also includes responsibilities for netizens, as suggested by the "bill of Rights and Responsibilities for Electronic Learners."
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Nanotechnology: Scenarios of Development and Impact. Alan L. Porter and Frederick A. Rossini, Science and Public Policy 17:4 Aug 1990, 229-234. Three nanotechnology scenarios to 21st century.

Nanotechnology is the manipulation of processes at the molecular scale. This article examines nanotechnology and provides three scenarios. Scenario 1.) Incremental impacts that begin in the 1990s. Scenario 2.) High techno-economic impacts, where nanotechnology becomes the basis for much industrial production and underlies infotech. (which could occur by 2015). Scenario 3.) Total societal impact where nanotechnology thoroughly transforms society, the ‘engines of creation’ create unbounded wealth, and the economics of scarcity are displaced by a new economics of distribution.
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Technology Spares the Environment. Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

The 21st century emerges as an era of techno-optimism. Accelerating technological advances help to boost industrial efficiencies, prosperity, and environmental sustainability throughout most of the world. These technological advances are driven in part by market competition, which tend to reward firms and societies that produce more for less. The dramatic efficiency gains in the use of land, energy, materials, and labor unleashed by technology and market competition outpace population growth and increases per capita consumption. The world economy becomes better equipped to meet human needs with less land, pollution, and natural resources. Dire warnings of widespread food shortages, pollution, overpopulation, and environmental depletion never materialize.
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A Technology-Rich Global Society. Hyperforum Scenarios on Sustainability, coordinated by Bruce Murray, California Institute of Technology. http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf.

This scenario assumes that modern food storage and transport techniques can be deployed essentially everywhere over the next 50 years. That alone would double today's useable food supplies. Provision of adequate irrigation water on existing agricultural land would double food supplies again. Thus, even without further gains in yields, food is not a problem if there are adequate supplies of water and energy.
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